BP Prudhoe Bay: High Dividends, Gathering Risk
This royalty trust does nothing but pump Alaskan crude, so investing in the stock is almost like owning your own piece of an oil field. The 13% yield is compelling, but there's plenty of risk.
Many high-income securities have appreciated so much in recent years that it's a challenge finding investments that satisfy yield-oriented investors. Real estate investment trusts that yield 3% or junk-bond funds that pay 6% just don't do the trick.
Oil and gas royalty trusts and master limited partnerships remain the exceptions. They continue to offer high and reasonably consistent yields even as their share prices have also risen. One trust that has always caught my eye is BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (symbol BPT). At $61.70, the price at which it closed on March 21, the stock yields a rousing 13.7% based on the past four quarterly distributions, which totaled $8.48 a share. The total payout would have been at least 50 cents a share higher had not BP been forced last summer to shut part of its production for six weeks to fix corroded pipeline.
The trust gets the revenue from a 16% interest in a specific Alaska oil field with some 81 million barrels of proved reserves. The price of crude oil remains below last year's highs, but with production fully restored, the January 2007 quarterly dividend of $2.01 was the fifth-highest in the trust's history. The record is $2.59 per unit, made last July.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Those rich dividends of the past year are based on crude ranging from $50 to $77 a barrel. If crude goes much lower than $58.31 a barrel, the price at which West Texas Intermediate closed on March 21, it's likely that the dividends will be cut. And it's unlikely that dividends will rise unless oil prices go out of sight and there's no cut in demand. Keep in mind that the first $30 to $35 per barrel of BP Prudhoe Bay's income goes for taxes and production costs.
The dividend outlook is iffy for several reasons. First, the trust's field is maturing. Daily production flows peaked in 1998. So, although geologists' reports to the stockholders say there are many, many years of reserves, the speed with which the wells can turn these reserves into cash flow is slowing.
Second, the state of Alaska raised and overhauled its oil production tax last year. Formerly 15% plus a small surcharge, the tax is now 22.5% plus a higher variable rate on every dollar that oil sells above $40 a barrel. The surcharge is also up a bit. As a result, whereas shareholders of the trust effectively paid $4 a barrel in taxes in 2003, they now pay more than $10.
Next comes the matter of production costs. The trust pays an overhead factor called "chargeable costs." That covers the trust's share of costs for engineering, transportation and other services in the field. The figure has been almost flat in the past few years but is scheduled to begin accelerating, from $12.75 a barrel now to $16.70 in 2012.
Subtract overhead costs, taxes and pocket change for auditing and shareholder services from the price of a barrel of oil, and 100% of what's left is income for investors. And that's what makes investing in this trust like having your own oil well: You don't have to worry about excessive debt, risky acquisitions or drilling gambles. You don't have to fret over dumb management moves, such as backdating stock options. The trust has zero employees. In fact, in what may be unique among New York Stock Exchange listings, BP Prudhoe Bay doesn't even have a Web site.
However, you can read its quarterly and annual SEC filings online, and that is where you can see the charges, the taxes and the moving parts. The trustee, the Bank of New York, will send you the annual statement that lists what percentage of the dividends are taxed now and which represent a return of capital or are exempted from taxes because of depletion allowances.
If these complications make you suspicious that this is an entity that works better for its sponsors than for the stockholders, there is a reassuring number: 358%. That's the total return over the past five years. Over that same period, ExxonMobil returned 66%. With that kind of a record -- it figures to 26% a year -- and a substantially lower share price than the $91 it reached last year, BP Prudhoe Bay is one high-dividend investment that appears worth any trouble -- at least for now.
To continue reading this article
please register for free
This is different from signing in to your print subscription
Why am I seeing this? Find out more here
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Pop Then Drop After Fed Meeting
Stocks went on a roller-coaster ride after Fed Chair Powell said interest rates were likely at a sufficiently restrictive level.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 23-Year High: What the Experts Are Saying
Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve struck a dovish pose even as it kept interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight meeting.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Pop Then Drop After Fed Meeting
Stocks went on a roller-coaster ride after Fed Chair Powell said interest rates were likely at a sufficiently restrictive level.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Sell Off Ahead of Fed Decision
Stocks sold off sharply Tuesday as anxiety set in ahead of Wednesday's policy statement from the Federal Reserve.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Post Broad-Based Gains Thanks to Mega-Cap Tech
Stocks get help from a couple of laggard Magnificent 7 stocks.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Soar Amid Strong Earnings for Big Tech
Equities ended the week on an up note thanks to some of the market's biggest names.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Tumble Amid Slower Economic Growth and Rising Prices
Disappointing readings on GDP and inflation helped tank equities.
By Dan Burrows Published
-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Run Out of Steam Ahead of Meta Earnings
The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four-day winning streak after Boeing's first-quarter results.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Soars Ahead of Tesla Earnings
The EV stock rose nearly 2% ahead of its highly anticipated Q1 earnings report, due after tonight's close.
By Karee Venema Published
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Rebound Ahead of Big Week for Earnings
Equities rallied on easing geopolitical tensions, upcoming quarterly results.
By Dan Burrows Published