When Will the Economy Feel Better?

We’re almost there. As the expansion continues to improve, more of its rewards will be seen and felt.

Though the recession has been over for five years, and GDP recaptured its previous peak some time back, for many, the economy still feels punk. In fact, in surveys, some people say they think the country is still in recession. Certainly, growth has been sluggish. Annual GDP gains haven’t topped a middling 2.5% since the end of the recession.

So when will the economy feel strong again -- more like a typical expansion of recent decades? The best bet is by mid-2015 or so, barring some new foreign or domestic crisis that wreaks havoc on consumers and businesses.

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David Payne
Staff Economist, The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.