Good news for shoppers and Americans eyeing a trip to Europe this year, not so good for exporters and U.S. tourist attractions: The muscled-up U.S. dollar will keep rising at least through the rest of the year and into next, relative to many other currencies.
Buoying the buck: Healthier U.S. GDP growth and higher interest rates compared with most other advanced economies. And given the uncertain economic conditions abroad, the U.S. will remain a safe haven for foreign investors.
For U.S. businesses and consumers, the stronger greenback is a mixed blessing, with varying impact on bottom lines and pocketbooks.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Among the beneficiaries: Manufacturers that buy large amounts of raw materials abroad. Alcoa, for example, imports large quantities of bauxite for making aluminum from Brazil and Australia, and credits the buck for good fourth-quarter earnings.
Retailers with suppliers in other countries. Think Macy’s and Target — both sell many items from foreign suppliers, especially ones based in China. The effect will be muted, though, because the dollar is not rising against China’s yuan, since Beijing has pegged its currency to the dollar.
European and Japanese makers of cars, consumer goods and business equipment. Firms such as Canon of Japan, which makes cameras and other imaging and optical products; L’Oréal, the French-based cosmetics company; and German-based Siemens, a manufacturer of a variety of industrial and medical gear.
Plus American consumers, who will shell out less for imported goods and services. Folks eyeing vacations to Europe or other overseas travel destinations can count on getting more bang for their buck because of the currency swings.
On the flip side: Exporters of all stripes will take a hit. Exports will still rise this year, but they’ll be up just 3% versus a previously expected pickup of 5%-6%.
Many large U.S. multinationals are bracing for a blow to their earnings. Some have already lowered earnings estimates for 2015. United Technologies, 3M, Johnson & Johnson, IBM and Apple are among the firms scaling back expectations. The companies in Standard & Poor’s 500 derive about 46% of their revenue from abroad.
U.S. tourism will also feel the effect. Amusement parts and other attractions will see the rate of foreign visitors slow this year, and the ones who do come will spend less.
The strong dollar will shave about a half a percentage point from GDP growth — all things considered. It also removes some of the edge from U.S. inflation as import prices decline, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate hikes. We still see the Fed raising rates, but not until midsummer or so.
-
-
Social Media, Guns, Taxes, Abortion: New Supreme Court Cases You Need to Know
Supreme Court The U.S. Supreme Court will hear several cases this fall that could significantly impact your rights and wealth. Here are a few of them to watch.
-
Medicaid Managed Care Groups Under Congressional Investigation
Lawmakers question Medicaid MCOs over their high rates of prior authorization denials.
-
Investments In U.S.-Made Drone Technology Are Gaining Strength — The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter The U.S.-Made drone aircraft, software sector has been boosted by a crackdown on Chinese drones amid security concerns.
-
Auto Industry’s Electric Transition Sparks Tension With Autoworkers: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter DoE announces $12 billion to support factory retrofits, which autoworkers fear may mean the end of numerous auto manufacturing jobs.
-
New Regs Crackdown on Incandescent Bulbs and CTC Exposure: Kiplinger Forecasts
Economic Forecasts The EPA and Dept. of Energy are planning to enforce rules on hazardous CTC and inefficient incandescent light bulbs.
-
Five Reasons Your Healthcare Costs Will Ease: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts From technical advancements to cheaper drugs, healthcare cost relief is coming.
-
Kiplinger Special Report: Key Business Costs for 2024
Economic Forecasts Looking at business costs for 2024, expect slight cost increases across the board, from insurance rates to shipping expenses. Profits will be up, too.
-
Key U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges in Power Struggle with China and Russia: Kiplinger Forecasts
Economic Forecasts The U.S. faces a power struggle with China and Russia, with challenges like controlling exports of critical technologies and responding to the war on Ukraine.
-
Business Is Driving the Smart Glasses Boom: Kiplinger Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Businesses are embracing productivity-boosting tech. Shipments of smart glasses are set to hit 25 million in 2027, up from 2 million in 2023.
-
Construction Sector Sees Backlogs and Year-Over-Year Declines: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Commercial and industrial construction projects are delayed by governmental red tape and a skilled labor shortage.
