Skip to headerSkip to main contentSkip to footer
Get our Free E-newslettersGet our Free E-newsletters
Kiplinger logoLink to homepage
Get our Free E-newslettersGet our Free E-newsletters
Subscribe to Kiplinger
Subscribe to Kiplinger
Save up to 76%
Subscribe
Subscribe to Kiplinger
  • Store
  • Home
  • Investing
  • Retirement
  • Taxes
  • Personal Finance
  • Your Business
  • Wealth Creation
    • Podcasts
    • Economic Outlooks
    • Tools
    • Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine
    • The Kiplinger Letter
    • The Kiplinger Tax Letter
    • Kiplinger's Investing for Income
    • Kiplinger's Retirement Report
    • Store
    • Manage My E-Newsletters
    • My Subscriptions
Skip advert
  • Home
  • Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts

10 Signs the EconomyIs on the Upswing

There are plenty of indications that the economy is shifting into higher gear.

by: The Kiplinger Washington Editors
January 1, 2012

istockphoto

Skip advert

There are plenty of indications that the economy is shifting into higher gear. And they are not just buried in economists’ models and spreadsheets, but evident in the day-to-day decisions consumers and business folks make.

So, yes, you can look to the stock market -- a classic leading economic indicator, nearing a 100% gain over two years -- for reassurance about tomorrow. But you can also read the economic tea leaves on golf greens and in underwear sales.

The slide show begins with the navigation at right

By Neema Roshania and Jerry Idaszak
February 15, 2011

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

1 of 11

Sales of Boxers, Briefs Leveling Off

istockphoto

Skip advert

When it’s tougher to find jobs, men wait longer to replace their underwear, and sales -- usually very stable -- fell nearly 2.5% in 2009. Now they’ve started to stabilize. But, much like the unemployment rate, it’s likely to take a few years to recover to prerecession levels.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

2 of 11

Desserts Are in Again

istockphoto

Skip advert

Apparently what’s good for the economy is bad for the waistline. When the economy is shrinking, restaurant traffic slows, and the diners who do visit full-service eateries hold down their tabs by sticking to entrées and skipping side orders, appetizers and desserts.

But the National Restaurant Association says more customers are splurging on the sweet endings again. That’s a sign that they aren’t as worried about losing their jobs. In fact, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is over 60 again, after plunging to a recession low of just 25.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

3 of 11

Less Sorrowful Searching

istockphoto

Skip advert

The number of Internet searches for “unemployment benefits,” “Social Security,” “unemployment office” and the like spiked in July 2010 and has been trending down since. First-time claims for unemployment insurance have been declining for months now, signaling that mass layoffs are waning and the economy is healing.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

4 of 11

The Venti Latte Makes a Comeback

AP Photo

Skip advert

One of the first things consumers cut out of their budgets when they’re feeling pinched is a jolt of high-priced caffeine served up by their local barista. It’s also one of the first little luxuries that consumers find worth shelling out for when they start to feel more comfortable with the direction of the economy. So it’s telling that Starbucks’ net revenues increased 9.5% in 2010, after falling 6% in 2009.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

5 of 11

Box Rebound ReflectsRising Demand

istockphoto

Skip advert

Because almost everything consumers buy at one point or another was packed in a cardboard box for shipping, higher prices for boxes and other shipping needs point to more consumption. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of bulk shipping costs, hit a 22-year low in December 2008. Though still far from prerecession levels, it’s on the rise again.

In fact, orders of durable goods -- appliances, furniture and other products with a life span of more than three years -- are improving. If you don’t count airplanes and defense goods -- typically big-ticket items with tremendous month-to-month volatility -- durable goods orders have climbed in four of the past five months.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

6 of 11

Fewer Urban DwellersAre Hoofing It

istockphoto

Skip advert

During recessions, more folks in cities resist the urge to hail a cab, opting to walk or take public transit to their destinations. But in recent months, business has started looking up for cabbies. Car sales are up, too -- for those who prefer to drive themselves.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

7 of 11

Duffers ReturningTo the Greens

istockphoto

Skip advert

As the economy picks up, golfers, good and bad, dust off their clubs and head back to the courses they shun during recessions. There are still fewer rounds being played than before the downturn, but the number of visits to golf courses stopped declining in 2010 and even increased in the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

8 of 11

Faces, Other Parts Getting a Lift

istockphoto

Skip advert

Few folks actually need a more finely sculpted nose, a tummy tuck or a more buxom figure. So when money is tight, elective cosmetic surgery takes a dive. But take heart, docs, demand is reemerging. The American Society of Plastic Surgeons says the number of patients who chose to undergo the knife for a better look last year rose by more than 13 million.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

9 of 11

More Willing to Play Their Hand

istockphoto

Skip advert

Even gamblers get more risk-averse when the economy is in a slump. By 2009, commercial casino revenues had dropped nearly 10% from their 2007 peak. The house’s take increased slightly last year and will head higher this year as consumer spending racks up about a 3% gain this year.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

10 of 11

More Couples Are Calling It Quits

istockphoto

Skip advert

The American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers says its members suffered a 37% drop in divorce cases in 2008 and a 57% decline in 2009. But the trend has begun to turn around, with many divorce lawyers saying they’ve got more business than they can handle -- a backlog of pent-up demand. In part, that’s because credit has started to loosen up.

During the recession, spatting spouses had a tough time arranging the financing to buy out their partner’s stake of businesses and homes, as required by property divisions, so they stuck it out. Even couples without Beverly Hills mansions or multimillion dollar companies to divvy up often delay divorce when they’re worried about maintaining two households and the possibility of an ex being unable to find a job.

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

11 of 11

More from Kiplinger

Skip advert

SLIDE SHOW: 11 Forecasts for 2011

SPECIAL REPORT: Investing Outlook 2011

SLIDE SHOW: 10 Jobs That Didn't Exist 10 Years Ago

SLIDE SHOW: 6 Weapons Systems in the Budget-Cut Crosshairs

Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks: GDP, Energy Prices and More

Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert
  • business
  • Economic Forecasts
Share via EmailShare on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedIn
Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert
Skip advert

Recommended

Most-Overlooked Tax Deductions and Credits for the Self-Employed
Tax Breaks

Most-Overlooked Tax Deductions and Credits for the Self-Employed

If you've recently gone into business for yourself, don't miss these tax breaks for the self-employed.
June 11, 2022
Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks
Economic Forecasts

Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks

Regularly updated insights on the economy’s next moves.
June 10, 2022
Is a Recession Coming?
Smart Buying

Is a Recession Coming?

With a lot of recession talk out there, we might just talk ourselves into one. We take that risk with Jim Patterson of The Kiplinger Letter. Also, dol…
May 31, 2022
25 Best College Majors for a Lucrative Career
college

25 Best College Majors for a Lucrative Career

One way to increase your chances of earning a good living is to pick a college major that prepares you to work in a field that pays well. Here are som…
May 31, 2022

Most Popular

The 15 Best Stocks for the Rest of 2022
stocks to buy

The 15 Best Stocks for the Rest of 2022

The lesson of the past two years: Be ready for anything. Our 15 best stocks to buy for the rest of 2022 reflect several possible outcomes for the seco…
June 21, 2022
Your Guide to Roth Conversions
Special Report
Tax Breaks

Your Guide to Roth Conversions

A Kiplinger Special Report
February 25, 2021
Retirement Comfort: How to Avoid Running Out of Money
retirement planning

Retirement Comfort: How to Avoid Running Out of Money

When it comes to retirement planning, one thing all of us worry about is whether we will have enough money to last. Financial professionals can help y…
June 25, 2022
  • Customer Service
  • About Us
  • Advertise With Us (PDF)
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
  • Kiplinger Careers
  • Accessibility
  • Privacy Preferences

Subscribe to Kiplinger's Personal Finance

Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Save up to 76%Subscribe to Kiplinger's Personal Finance
Do Not Sell My Information

Kiplinger is part of Future plc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. Visit our corporate site www.futureplc.com
© Future US LLC, 10th floor, 1100 13th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005. All rights reserved.

Follow us on InstagramFollow us on FacebookFollow us on TwitterConnect on LinkedInConnect on YouTube