Latest Social Security COLA Forecast a Setback for Retirees

Social Security COLA forecast adjusted to 2.6% in 2025. That's bad news for retirees juggling inflation.

Book with title Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs)
(Image credit: Getty Images)

It sounds like good news. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonprofit and nonpartisan advocacy group, has increased its long-term Social Security COLA forecast for 2025 to 2.6%. But that modest increase — up from 1.7% in a February 2024 forecast — may fall far off the mark for seniors trying to beat back inflation.

The new estimate is based on the March 2024 CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers), which was 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last year, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 8.7%; this year, it’s 3.2%. As retirees struggle to keep up with inflation, this 2.6% forecast is seen as a setback.

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Erin Bendig
Personal Finance Writer

Erin pairs personal experience with research and is passionate about sharing personal finance advice with others. Previously, she was a freelancer focusing on the credit card side of finance, but has branched out since then to cover other aspects of personal finance. Erin is well-versed in traditional media with reporting, interviewing and research, as well as using graphic design and video and audio storytelling to share with her readers.