To help you understand what is going on in regards to commercial real estate and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Delinquent commercial real estate (CRE) loans at U.S. banks are on the rise. The volume of past-due loans in which commercial proprietors missed more than one payment jumped 36% in the third quarter.
Borrowers have struggled lately to refinance their loans amid declining property values and rising interest rates. Bank lending remains in historically good shape despite the delinquencies. But past-due CRE loans will continue to increase as long as property values remain under pressure, particularly those in the beleaguered office market.
Banks are stepping up efforts to restructure CRE loans to avoid losses. For example, the volume of loans in which Bank of America has either forgiven interest or extended due dates rose by nearly $750 million in the third quarter. Many banks are also setting aside more money to cover expected losses from their CRE portfolios.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The Office Market
The office market is still under pressure as the vacancy rate remains high. The national office vacancy rate reached 19.2% in the third quarter, up from 18.9% in the second quarter. The office market also saw another quarter of relatively stagnant rent growth. Asking rents rose 0.08%, while effective rents climbed just 0.04%. Both have been flat for the past year, with demand for office space still unstable.
New office construction is on track to finish below the historical average. A key contributor to the problem is that many folks still work from home. Around 26% of households have one person who works from home at least one day of the week, according to recent Census data. But fewer folks are doing so full-time, suggesting that many companies are still shifting toward a hybrid work arrangement.
The good news is that most cities are now seeing workers return to the office. Apart from Boston, Houston, Miami, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., the share of folks working from home has fallen over the last year in all major metro areas.
However, office financing will dry up as demand for office-backed bonds drops. Delinquency rates for commercial mortgage-backed securities focused on office loans rose to 4.6% in October., the highest since 2018, causing many investors to steer clear.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related Content
-
Stock Market Today: Markets Chop Up More Trump ThreatsStocks are grinding to new highs on light summer volume, and bitcoin is only getting bigger.
-
If You'd Put $1,000 Into Procter & Gamble Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have TodayProcter & Gamble stock is a dependable dividend grower, but a disappointing long-term holding.
-
What New Tariffs Mean for Car ShoppersThe Kiplinger Letter Car deals are growing scarcer. Meanwhile, tax credits for EVs are on the way out, but tax breaks for car loans are coming.
-
AI’s Rapid Rise Sparks New Cyber ThreatsThe Kiplinger Letter Cybersecurity professionals are racing to ward off AI threats while also using AI tools to shore up defenses.
-
Blue Collar Workers Add AI to Their ToolboxesThe Kiplinger Letter AI can’t fix a leak or install lighting, but more and more tradespeople are adopting artificial intelligence for back-office work and other tasks.
-
Will State Laws Hurt AI’s Future?The Kiplinger Letter Republicans in Congress are considering a moratorium on state AI laws. But it’s likely a growing patchwork of state AI regulations will be here for a while.
-
The New AI Agents Will Tackle Your To-Do ListThe Kiplinger Letter Autonomous AI agents “see” your computer screen, then complete a task, from buying a concert ticket to organizing email. This opens up a world of possibilities.
-
AI’s Medical RevolutionThe Kiplinger Letter Medicine is a field ripe for finding both exciting and practical uses for AI. The tech is already being used by doctors and researchers.
-
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade WarThe Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
-
AI Heads to WashingtonThe Kiplinger Letter There’s big opportunity for AI tools that analyze MRIs and other medical images. But also big challenges that clinicians and companies will have to overcome.
