Delinquent CRE Loans Are on the Rise: The Kiplinger Letter
Banks are expanding their efforts to restructure CRE loans to avoid losses from the commercial real estate sector.
To help you understand what is going on in regards to commercial real estate and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
Delinquent commercial real estate (CRE) loans at U.S. banks are on the rise. The volume of past-due loans in which commercial proprietors missed more than one payment jumped 36% in the third quarter.
Borrowers have struggled lately to refinance their loans amid declining property values and rising interest rates. Bank lending remains in historically good shape despite the delinquencies. But past-due CRE loans will continue to increase as long as property values remain under pressure, particularly those in the beleaguered office market.
Banks are stepping up efforts to restructure CRE loans to avoid losses. For example, the volume of loans in which Bank of America has either forgiven interest or extended due dates rose by nearly $750 million in the third quarter. Many banks are also setting aside more money to cover expected losses from their CRE portfolios.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/hwgJ7osrMtUWhk5koeVme7-200-80.png](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/hwgJ7osrMtUWhk5koeVme7-320-80.png)
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
The Office Market
The office market is still under pressure as the vacancy rate remains high. The national office vacancy rate reached 19.2% in the third quarter, up from 18.9% in the second quarter. The office market also saw another quarter of relatively stagnant rent growth. Asking rents rose 0.08%, while effective rents climbed just 0.04%. Both have been flat for the past year, with demand for office space still unstable.
New office construction is on track to finish below the historical average. A key contributor to the problem is that many folks still work from home. Around 26% of households have one person who works from home at least one day of the week, according to recent Census data. But fewer folks are doing so full-time, suggesting that many companies are still shifting toward a hybrid work arrangement.
The good news is that most cities are now seeing workers return to the office. Apart from Boston, Houston, Miami, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., the share of folks working from home has fallen over the last year in all major metro areas.
However, office financing will dry up as demand for office-backed bonds drops. Delinquency rates for commercial mortgage-backed securities focused on office loans rose to 4.6% in October., the highest since 2018, causing many investors to steer clear.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
Related Content
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.
Rodrigo Sermeño covers the financial services, housing, small business, and cryptocurrency industries for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in 2014, he worked for several think tanks and non-profit organizations in Washington, D.C., including the New America Foundation, the Streit Council, and the Arca Foundation. Rodrigo graduated from George Mason University with a bachelor's degree in international affairs. He also holds a master's in public policy from George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government.
-
Visa Is the Worst Dow Stock Wednesday. Here's Why
Visa stock is down sharply Wednesday after the credit card company came up short of revenue expectations for its fiscal Q3.
By Joey Solitro Published
-
Another Analyst Moves to the Sidelines on Tesla Stock After Earnings
Tesla stock is spiraling Wednesday after the EV maker's big earnings miss and Wall Street has been quick to weigh in. Here's what you need to know.
By Joey Solitro Published
-
Car Prices Are Finally Coming Down
The Kiplinger Letter For the first time in years, it may be possible to snag a good deal on a new car.
By David Payne Published
-
Rising Cyber Threat of AI: The Kiplinger Letter
The Kiplinger Letter Security experts warn that generative AI brings new risks with no clear defenses. With AI's rapid adoption, businesses are vulnerable.
By John Miley Published
-
Congress Spends Big on Closing the Digital Divide
The Kiplinger Letter A massive spending program is designed to bring high-speed internet to rural and remote locations.
By John Miley Published
-
Kiplinger Special: The Long-Term Future of the U.S. Economy
The Kiplinger Letter Kiplinger's report into what it will take the U.S. to maintain a healthy economic growth rate.
By David Payne Published
-
Landlord With Rental Income? See if You Qualify for a 20% Tax Break
The Tax Letter Many landlords are eligible to take the 20% tax deduction for qualified business income
By Joy Taylor Published
-
The Fight Against Cancer Enters a New Phase
The Kiplinger Letter Breakthrough treatments hold promise for patients and investors.
By Matthew Housiaux Published
-
After Decades of Promise, the Virtual Reality Era Has Finally Arrived
The Kiplinger Letter VR is a paradigm shift for consumer technology. The tech has a long road ahead, but amazing hardware already puts the huge potential on full display.
By John Miley Published
-
AI to Power the Next Generation of Robots
The Kiplinger Letter There's increasing buzz that the tech behind ChatGPT will make future industrial and humanoid robots far more capable.
By John Miley Published