China to Benefit from U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Washington wants to limit the use of more advanced tech overseas, which could fuel Beijing’s lower-tech sector

China is a world superpower, so the fortunes of the Chinese economy have a big impact across the world, and of course in the U.S. too.
Our hugely experienced Kiplinger Letter team will update you on all the important developments in China and what impact that has at home and for investors (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). Here’s the latest forecast, starting with background on semiconductor exports…
The U.S. is preparing to unveil new semiconductor export controls that would double the number of machines requiring export licenses.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
U.S. producers of chipmaking gear, such as Applied Materials (AMAT), are bracing for impact. Notably, Washington will be working with the Netherlands and Japan, whose governments have agreed to bar sales of the same chipmaking equipment as the U.S.
While American firms account for 40% of the global market for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, both the Netherlands and Japan are significant players. The Dutch firm ASML (ASML), for example, is the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, used to make the most advanced chips.
But U.S. officials have struggled to get other countries to strike deals, most notably South Korea, a leader in semiconductor manufacturing with a small but sophisticated industry for chipmaking gear, and Germany, the leading supplier of the components used in the production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Why China stands to benefit
One consequence of semiconductor-related U.S. export controls is on China, as Beijing will likely dominate the global industry for less advanced chip tech, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
Moves to cut China off from advanced chips and chipmaking gear have fueled its efforts at the lower end of the tech spectrum. China currently leads the world in building new chipmaking facilities and is expected to account for 18% of global fabrication facilities by 2025, an increase of 7% from 2019, with most facilities dedicated to mature technologies.
Read more
- The Best Semiconductor Stocks
- Semiconductor Stocks: A Smart Bet for the Long-Haul
- Intel Promises Return to Chip Dominance. Does Anyone Care?
-
-
Time to Book a Trip: Prices for Vacation Rental Homes Are Dropping
Book a vacation rental home as prices drop amidst rising interest in hotels. Here's how booking a rental can save you money on your accommodations.
By Becca van Sambeck • Published
-
Congress Examines Nonprofit Hospital Tax Exemption Kiplinger Tax Letter
Tax Letter Providing community benefit is just one of many requirements.
By Joy Taylor • Published
-
Mixed Bag on Business Costs as Manufacturing Costs Fall, Oil is Headed Up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Mixed bag on business costs as manufacturing and gas prices fall, but oil is up: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By David Payne • Published
-
Text-Generating AI Faces Major Legal Risks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Major legal risks to text-generating artificial intelligence: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By John Miley • Published
-
Farmers Face Lower Costs, Greater Weather Risks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Farmers Face Lower Costs, Greater Weather Risks: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By Matthew Housiaux • Published
-
New Emissions Limits to be Introduced: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts New emissions limits to be introduced: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By Matthew Housiaux • Published
-
Shortages Galore Threaten Ability to Power, Heat and Cool Our Homes: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Shortages of transformers, heat pumps and air conditioning units are threatening our ability to power, heat and cool our homes.
By Matthew Housiaux • Published
-
Safety Rights for Key California Workers Could Be Tightened: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Safety Rights for Key California Workers Could Be Tightened: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By Matthew Housiaux • Published
-
Car Makers Look To Cut the Cost of Recalls: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Kiplinger Economic Forecasts Faulty software costs car manufacturers $500m in recalls. What are they turning to and what could that mean for you?
By Letter Editors • Published
-
Tablet Sales Slump After Pandemic Surge: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
Economic Forecasts Tablet sales slump after the pandemic surge, but it’s not all bad news for the sector: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
By Letter Editors • Published