I Still Fear A Big Market Decline Ahead
Prepare your portfolio for more volatility and a drop in stocks.
In its meeting on March 16, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged and indicated that there could be two rate increases between now and the end of 2016. Last fall, the indication was as many as four rate hikes in 2016—and the market rallied on that news, but Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is down slightly, as of mid March.
Those who believe monetary policy has been irresponsibly loose will no doubt say the most recent Fed announcement is setting us up for a potentially more painful day of reckoning somewhere down the line. Others will say that current economic and market conditions warrant caution on tightening the money supply.
In an article published on February 22nd, Mohamed A. El-Erian, former head of Pimco, said, "The market calm may be short lived." He lists three risks, any one of which he says could lead to a big drop in the stock market.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Be a smarter, better informed investor.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Former Dallas Federal Reserve President, David Fisher, said last week on CNBC, "We injected cocaine and heroin into the market [with quantitative easing], and now we are maintaining it with Ritalin… The Fed is like a big weapon with no ammunition left." These comments are remarkable, especially coming from a former fed governor.
Don't ignore these signs indicating that the economy and the stock market are undergoing a serious and fundamental change. I recommend that investors add a tactical component to their overall investment strategy. Tactical strategies, very simply, have a mechanism for reducing exposure as markets first become more volatile and then, decline. This isn't market timing. It is rules-based investing. And, it's not for an investor's entire portfolio—just the portion that you would like to protect. If you commit as little as one third of your investable assets to tactical strategies, it will improve portfolio returns significantly if we enter a bear market. If stocks continue to climb, you still have two-thirds of your capital benefiting from that increase.
It's important to note that tactical systems don't just protect investors from bad markets. To the contrary, tactical systems identify areas of strength and funnel capital in that direction. It is not, therefore, a decision to take a big chunk of your investable assets permanently off the table. Rather, it is adding another level of diversification to an overall investment strategy.
For more on my recommended tactical strategies, see How to Prepare Your Portfolio for the Worst.
Roger Davis is CEO of Woodridge Wealth Management, LLC. He lives in Los Angeles CA with his wife and two children.
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

Roger is a wealth manager for successful families and individuals, speaker, and author of Wall Street's Just Not That Into You: An Insider's Guide to Protecting and Growing Wealth (Bibliomotion, 2015). He is CEO of Woodridge Wealth Management, LLC. Prior to its formation, he was a Senior Vice President at UBS Financial Services and was member of the senior advisory council at J.C. Bradford & Co. Davis has worked as a financial advisor since 1992.
-
Dow, S&P 500 Slip on December Rate Cut Worries, Nvidia Boosts Nasdaq: Stock Market TodayNvidia became the first company ever to boast a $5 trillion market cap, but it wasn't enough to lift the Dow and the S&P 500.
-
Where You Choose to Stash $100k Now Comes with a Big Opportunity CostThe Fed recently cut rates. Here's where to maximize your savings while rates remain higher.
-
I'm a CPA: Control These Three Levers to Keep Your Retirement on TrackThink of investing in terms of time, savings and risk. By carefully monitoring all three, you'll keep your retirement plans heading in the right direction.
-
Debunking Three Myths About Defined Outcome ETFs (aka Buffered ETFs)Defined outcome ETFs offer a middle ground between traditional equity and fixed-income investments, helping provide downside protection and upside participation.
-
This Is Why Judge Judy Says Details Are Important in Contracts: This Contract Had HolesA couple's disastrous experience with reclaimed wood flooring led to safety hazards and a lesson in the critical importance of detailed contracts.
-
A Lesson From the School of Rock (and a Financial Adviser) as the Markets Go Around and AroundIt's hard to hold your nerve during a downturn, but next time the markets take a tumble, remember this quick rock 'n' roll tutorial and aim to stay invested.
-
I'm a Financial Pro: This Is How You Can Guide Your Heirs Through the Great Wealth TransferFocus on creating a clear estate plan, communicating your wishes early to avoid family conflict, leaving an ethical will with your values and wisdom and preparing them practically and emotionally.
-
To Reap the Full Benefits of Tax-Loss Harvesting, Consider This Investment Strategist's StepsTax-loss harvesting can offer more advantages for investors than tax relief. Over the long term, it can potentially help you maintain a robust portfolio and build wealth.
-
Social Security Wisdom From a Financial Adviser Receiving Benefits HimselfYou don't know what you don't know, and with Social Security, that can be a costly problem for retirees — one that can last a lifetime.
-
Take It From a Tax Expert: The True Measure of Your Retirement Readiness Isn't the Size of Your Nest EggA sizable nest egg is a good start, but your plan should include two to five years of basic expenses in conservative, liquid accounts as a buffer against market volatility, inflation and taxes.