Slow and Steady GDP Gains Ahead
Third quarter GDP gains are being fed by consumer and business spending.

Third quarter GDP growth of 2% (annualized) is neither much to cheer about nor cause for alarm. The third quarter’s performance, an initial estimate that will be revised one month from now with fresh information on trade and inventories, is an improvement, albeit a small one over the second quarter’s growth rate of 1.7%. But it’s not enough to gladden the White House or dissuade the Federal Reserve from moving next week to loosen credit and dampen long-term interest rates.
An increase in consumer spending -- which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity -- reaffirms our expectation that when all is said and done, GDP will rack up growth of about 2.8% in 2010 and about 3% in 2011. After a rousing fourth quarter in 2009 (5% annualized growth) and a good first quarter of this year (3.7% annualized growth), recent sluggishness has been disappointing, raising fears that the economy will again tumble into recession. We think there’s enough momentum to avoid such a near-term decline, however.
Indeed, there are plenty of good reasons to expect improvement in the months ahead, including:

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
• Rock-bottom interest rates.
• The giant pile of cash that businesses are sitting on, providing plenty of fuel for continued purchases of equipment, software and information technology. Spending on equipment and software increased 12% in the third quarter -- though well shy of the unsustainably torrid 24.8% sprint in the second quarter, that’s still solid. Businesses also boosted inventories last quarter by $115.5 billion, contributing 1.44 percentage points to overall growth. Although that pace will taper off, it’s a sign that businesses, while cautious, aren’t playing ostrich, burying their heads in the sand.
• Banks with plenty of capital to lend, once the spigots are loosened.
• An improved pace of consumer spending as more jobs are created. The 2.6% consumer spending gain in the third quarter is the best showing since 2006, before the recession.
• A housing sector that, though it remains in the dumps, won’t subtract from growth as it had been doing.
• Exports benefiting from global growth.
Look for federal government spending gains to wane in coming months as the $787 billon economic stimulus program passed by Congress in early 2009 winds down. In the third quarter, stimulus spending helped boost the federal government’s contribution to GDP by 8.8%. Spending by state and local governments was flat, as the recession took its toll on their revenues.
Because GDP measures domestic output, imports subtract from the final number. In fact, although exports rose 5%, imports increased by 17.4%. The net result lowered GDP by two percentage points.
One other notable number is a gauge of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve, which slowed to an annual rate of 0.8%. That is below the Fed’s target of between 1% and 2%, and will support those officials who will push for credit easing action at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

-
Stock Market Today: Stocks Step Back From New Highs
Investors, traders and speculators continue the low-volume summer grind against now-familiar uncertainties.
-
Ask the Editor — Tax Questions on the New Senior Deduction
Ask the Editor In this week's Ask the Editor Q&A, we answer tax questions from readers on the new $6,000 deduction for taxpayers 65 and older.
-
Breaking China's Stranglehold on Rare Earth Elements
The Letter China is using its near-monopoly on critical minerals to win trade concessions. Can the U.S. find alternate supplies?
-
Things that Surprise Business Owners When It’s Time to Sell
The Kiplinger Letter When it’s time to retire and enjoy the fruits of growing their business, owners are often surprised by how tough it is to give up their baby!
-
What New Tariffs Mean for Car Shoppers
The Kiplinger Letter Car deals are growing scarcer. Meanwhile, tax credits for EVs are on the way out, but tax breaks for car loans are coming.
-
AI’s Rapid Rise Sparks New Cyber Threats
The Kiplinger Letter Cybersecurity professionals are racing to ward off AI threats while also using AI tools to shore up defenses.
-
Blue Collar Workers Add AI to Their Toolboxes
The Kiplinger Letter AI can’t fix a leak or install lighting, but more and more tradespeople are adopting artificial intelligence for back-office work and other tasks.
-
Will State Laws Hurt AI’s Future?
The Kiplinger Letter Republicans in Congress are considering a moratorium on state AI laws. But it’s likely a growing patchwork of state AI regulations will be here for a while.
-
The New AI Agents Will Tackle Your To-Do List
The Kiplinger Letter Autonomous AI agents “see” your computer screen, then complete a task, from buying a concert ticket to organizing email. This opens up a world of possibilities.
-
AI’s Medical Revolution
The Kiplinger Letter Medicine is a field ripe for finding both exciting and practical uses for AI. The tech is already being used by doctors and researchers.