Kiplinger.com
Tools
Columns
E-mail Alerts
Online Forum
Quizzes
Site Map
The Kiplinger Letter
Kiplinger Store
Customer Service
Corporate Sales
About Kiplinger
Give A Gift

THE BASICS OF MONEY

 | 

HOW TO INVEST, MANAGE YOUR MONEY AND SPEND WISELY

Home > Basics of Money > Getting Started

Slideshow Videos Slideshow
FEATURED SLIDE SHOW
10 Values in Vacation Homes
See 10 property values between $200,000-$350,000 that grabbed our attention.
KIPLINGER'S MONEY POLL
Americans have cut their driving by more than 40 billion miles over the past seven months. Have you curtailed your driving?
Quite a bit
A little
Not at all
       View Results!

IN THIS TUTORIAL

Add Balance with Bonds

How Bonds Work

Types of Bonds

Unlocking the Potential of Bonds

Riding the Yield Curve

How to Reduce the Risks in Bonds



INCOME STRATEGIES
Riding the Yield Curve
This simple relationship between long- and short-term interest rates can tell you a lot about the bond market.

Investors should examine the yield curve for Treasury securities as part of their investment decision-making process.

Rates on bonds of different maturities behave independently of each other with short-term rates and long-term rates often moving in opposite directions. By comparing long- and short-term bond yields, the yield curve describes future trends in bond returns.

The curve is generally upward sloping -- with the rates of one-year bonds a few percentage points below the rates of 30-year bonds -- in times of economic growth. The upward slope reflects the added risk of keeping a bond for a longer period of time. The longer a bond's term, the greater the chance that its payments could decrease due to economic risks.

Normal yield curve

The yield curve may come in three additional shapes signaling a different turning point in the economy:

A steep curve can occur when the small percentage gap between the shortest maturity bonds (i.e. three-month T-bills) and the longest maturity bonds (i.e. 30-year Treasury bonds) widens because some economic force causes the short-term rates to drop more than long-term ones. A steep curve often forecasts a faster-growing economy because lower short-term rates make it easier for companies to borrow money to expand their operations.

Steep yield curve

An inverted curve occurs when short-term rates are greater than long-term rates, and is characteristic of investors' positive expectations of the economy. If investors believe that inflation and long-term rates will drop in the future, they would be eager to invest in long-term bonds now or "lock in" high yields while rates are low. Inverted curves may occur as the Fed raises short-term interest rates, and are always followed by economic slowdown. In fact, analysts have viewed inverted yield curves before each of the last five recessions in the U.S.

Steep yield curve

A humped curve occurs when long-term yields are the same as short-term yields. A common fear is that a humped curve signals the beginning of a recession because the yield curve must pass through this intermediate stage in order to become inverted. Although a humped curve does often signal slower economic growth, the primary force behind an inverted curve is investors' favorable expectations of the future. Other factors such as lower supply of long-term bonds may cause the hump to form.

Steep yield curve

Unlocking the Potential of Bonds How to Reduce the Risks in Bonds


SAVE, SHARE & DISCUSS:    |   |   |   |   |    
ADD HEADLINES:          
SPONSORED LINKS