An Early Midterms Outlook
Democrats are hoping to translate President Trump's unpopularity into big gains.
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The midterm elections are six months away. Here’s our early take on how things will go down.
Democrats have a chance to make big gains, with President Trump and his party reeling from sticky inflation and an unpopular war with Iran.
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Republicans have lost ground with key groups of voters who helped power Trump to victory in 2024: Hispanics. Working-class white women. Gen Z men. And historically, the party controlling the White House tends to lose congressional seats during the midterms.
Democrats currently lead in the generic ballot, a rough measure of which party voters would prefer to control Congress, by about six points, on average. They should retake the House, where Republicans are down to a six-seat advantage after deaths, resignations and special-election losses.
How many seats they will gain is hard to say. While political conditions generally favor the Democrats, the party still must contend with its own image issues, as well as Trump’s persistent popularity with a small but loyal group of voters.
Redistricting has given Republicans a key advantage. While the legal issues are not completely settled, Republicans in several Southern states have drawn more GOP-friendly congressional maps in response to a recent Supreme Court decision narrowing the power of the Voting Rights Act. Democrats, meanwhile, have encountered legal setbacks in their efforts to do the same in Virginia.
Senate Democrats have a real possibility of flipping at least three GOP seats. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper comfortably leads his Republican rival, Michael Whatley. Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins is in the political fight of her life. The Ohio race, pitting GOP Senator Jon Husted against former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), is a toss-up. Dems also are bullish about their chances of defeating Alaska GOP Senator Dan Sullivan. Plus, Democratic candidates in key races are raising more cash than the Republicans.
The party needs to pick up at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, a tall order, given the rest of the Senate map. Republicans are defending more seats this year (22) than Democrats (13); however, all but one are in states that Trump won. By contrast, Dems are defending two seats in states that Trump won: Georgia and Michigan.
The odds still favor Republicans maintaining control of the upper chamber.
Whatever the results, expect the current gridlock in Washington to get worse. By controlling just one chamber of Congress, Democrats will effectively have a veto over future Trump legislative priorities and more opportunities to conduct oversight.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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