Biden Reelection Bid Far From Sure Bet: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts
How would the current president fare vs. Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis?


The White House is arguably the centerpiece of world politics and decision-making, and its activity has a wide-reaching impact not just on the U.S. and its economy but across the world too. Our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts coming from and concerning the White House (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You will get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many of the forecasts online a few days afterward. Here’s the latest forecast…
With President Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign officially underway, it’s worth noting how weak his political standing is, by several metrics.
For example, his average approval rating (41.9%) is roughly on par with that of Donald Trump at this point in his presidency; Trump lost his reelection bid to Biden.

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
By contrast, Barack Obama (50.1%), George W. Bush (62.3%) and Bill Clinton (53.2%) all had higher approval ratings than Biden before winning reelection. Biden also scores poorly on his handling of several key issues, including the economy, crime and immigration.
Biden’s advanced age concerns many voters. Already the oldest man ever elected president, he would be 86 at the end of a possible second term.
The president’s best bet for reelection may be a rematch of 2020. Trump is currently the favorite to win the Republican nomination for president, and Biden fares better in head-to-head polling with Trump than Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida and the other leading GOP presidential contender.
If Biden can’t shore up his political standing before next fall, it’s possible that Trump, despite significant baggage, could still pull out a victory.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter. Since 1923, the Letter has helped millions of business executives and investors profit by providing reliable forecasts on business and the economy, as well as what to expect from Washington. Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.
Get Kiplinger Today newsletter — free
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.

-
AI Goes To School
The Kiplinger Letter Artificial intelligence is rapidly heading to K-12 classrooms nationwide. Expect tech companies to cash in on the fast-emerging trend.
-
Where to Invest in an Uncertain Market
In an uncertain market, you can still pocket juicy payouts ranging from 4% to 14%, depending on risk.
-
AI Goes To School
The Kiplinger Letter Artificial intelligence is rapidly heading to K-12 classrooms nationwide. Expect tech companies to cash in on the fast-emerging trend.
-
The IRS is in Chaos
The Tax Letter DOGE, departures, data agreements and more are creating havoc at the IRS.
-
Trump's Second 100 Days
The Kiplinger Letter President Trump's agenda faces legal and legislative roadblocks.
-
The Economic Impact of the US-China Trade War
The Letter The US-China trade war will impact US consumers and business. The decoupling process could be messy.
-
Trump Dials Back Most Tariffs but Targets China
The Kiplinger Letter Wall Street hopes that higher tariffs on most countries are on hold for good. But the trade war between the U.S. and China is heating up.
-
Trump's Sweeping New Tariffs Rattle Wall Street, Main Street
The Kiplinger Letter Trump is promising that the short-term pain of steep new tariffs on imports will spark a manufacturing renaissance. But they pose major risks in the near term.
-
Congressional Republicans Tackle Trump's Agenda
The Kiplinger Letter Despite slim majorities in both chambers, the GOP is gearing up to overhaul taxes, border security and more.
-
What DOGE is Doing Now
The Kiplinger Letter As Musk's DOGE pursues its ambitious agenda, uncertainty and legal challenges are mounting — causing frustration for Trump.