Biden Reelection Bid Far From Sure Bet: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts

How would the current president fare vs. Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis?

President Joe Biden standing at a lectern delivering remarks about the U.S. economy during a press briefing
(Image credit: Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The White House is arguably the centerpiece of world politics and decision-making, and its activity has a wide-reaching impact not just on the U.S. and its economy but across the world too. Our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts coming from and concerning the White House (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You will get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many of the forecasts online a few days afterward. Here’s the latest forecast…

With President Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign officially underway, it’s worth noting how weak his political standing is, by several metrics.

For example, his average approval rating (41.9%) is roughly on par with that of Donald Trump at this point in his presidency; Trump lost his reelection bid to Biden. 

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By contrast, Barack Obama (50.1%), George W. Bush (62.3%) and Bill Clinton (53.2%) all had higher approval ratings than Biden before winning reelection. Biden also scores poorly on his handling of several key issues, including the economy, crime and immigration.

Biden’s advanced age concerns many voters. Already the oldest man ever elected president, he would be 86 at the end of a possible second term.

The president’s best bet for reelection may be a rematch of 2020. Trump is currently the favorite to win the Republican nomination for president, and Biden fares better in head-to-head polling with Trump than Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida and the other leading GOP presidential contender.

If Biden can’t shore up his political standing before next fall, it’s possible that Trump, despite significant baggage, could still pull out a victory.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter. Since 1923, the Letter has helped millions of business executives and investors profit by providing reliable forecasts on business and the economy, as well as what to expect from Washington. Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.  

Matthew Housiaux
Reporter, The Kiplinger Letter
Housiaux covers the White House and state and local government for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in June 2016, he lived in Sioux Falls, SD, where he was the forum editor of Augustana University's student newspaper, the Mirror. He also contributed stories to the Borgen Project, a Seattle-based nonprofit focused on raising awareness of global poverty. He earned a B.A. in history and journalism from Augustana University.