I wrote an article in 2021, Dying Careers You May Want to Steer Clear Of, about how jobs will start to disappear because smart machines are becoming smarter. Since that article, advances in artificial intelligence have exploded, making AI a possible threat to the job security of hundreds of millions of workers. Let’s examine what’s going on and whether you should update your résumé in case even savvier computers gobble up your job.
The threat of your job becoming obsolete may feel like a new thing and a slap in the face. It’s not. This phenomenon has happened throughout history. The earliest example of a machine that could replace workers, that I could find, was in 1589 when William Lee invented the stocking frame knitting machine.
Lee thought that workers would be thrilled to no longer have to sit in drafty rooms huddled together while knitting by hand, only to develop stooped shoulders and arthritis. He was wrong.
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Lee sought a patent for his revolutionary knitting machine and even invited Queen Elizabeth I to view his invention. The queen was more concerned about all of the knitters who could be laid off and refused to grant Lee a patent. According to Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, authors of the 2012 book Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, the queen said, “Thou aimest high, Master Lee. Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.”
We know that progress is impossible to stop, even for the queen.
What industries could become obsolete in the future?
Acknowledging that no one knows for sure what professions will or will not exist or how they will change over time, I think, in general, that the upper middle class is about to get slammed. Frankly, most white-collar employees involved in cognitive jobs should be worried. According to a paper from the University of Oxford, “The Future of Employment,” about 47% of total U.S. employment is at risk. It’s not just that actual robotic machines are more efficient, it’s also that our computers are becoming way smarter.
AI could take your job
Goldman Sachs estimates around 300 million jobs could be affected by generative AI. This could cause a seismic disruption, with an estimated two-thirds of jobs in the U.S. and Europe subject to some form of automation. So you might want to think about updating your skills and your résumé if you are in any of these professions:
- Office and administrative support
- Legal
- Architecture
- Engineering
- Business and financial operations
- Sales
- Education
- Arts and design
- Travel agents
- Truck drivers
- Medicine
- Librarian/archivist
- Sports referees
- Factory workers
More depressing news
Quantum computing is just around the corner. It is the new-new in the computer world. It can address complicated problems with many factors and therefore develop some outcomes more quickly than a regular computer. I think it will turn jobs like Bitcoin mining on its head, because it can solve math problems really quickly. If you just have computer skills on your résumé, you may also be out of luck, because these new quantum computing skills are unique.
Jobs that may exist
I’m confident that machines won’t replace the jobs that need a human touch. Machines can be great at performing certain functions, but they don’t have empathy, intuition or the ability to make a human connection. That means that if you work in health care, counseling or live customer service, your job may be safe. Wouldn’t it be great to also dream of a time, after an annoying bout with machine prompts, when you could talk to a real person?
The crossroads of the ‘Oppenheimer’ effect
Let’s now complicate matters further. Just as the queen and others have struggled with the ethics and morality of putting workers out of work, let’s ponder the morality of possibly creating science that can end the world.
AI has caused many to become bereaved with the thought that it could lead to the military destruction of the world. The movie Oppenheimer (not to be confused with Barbie) highlights this quandary. Alexander Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, discussed in The New York Times the moral judgments faced by Robert Oppenheimer, who is often referred to as the “father of the atomic bomb.”
Oppenheimer is quoted to have said, “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it … and you argue about what to do about it only after you have had your technical success. That is the way it was with the atomic bomb.” That may also be the debate with AI. But just as with the atomic bomb, do we let our enemies develop it first?
We did not shy away from building the automobile, which has led to horrific traffic deaths. We make laws and other protections, like seat belts and airbags, that protect the populace. Can we do the same with AI?
This, like my previous article, can make for great dinner conversation with your kids. Ask them what they see in the future and what jobs they think will disappear and be created. Ask them what may come of the new “technical” brainpower we can build. How can it be used for good, and what should we do to prevent it from being used for evil?
Part of being a parent is to not only help our kids to be resilient when it comes to change, but to also help them understand some of the consequences, as well.
Remember the words of Albert Einstein: “The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.”
related content
- Facing a Potential Job Loss? Here’s How to Prepare
- How to Avoid Getting Sued After Leaving Your Job
- Five Things to Consider When Weighing a Job Change
- The Job Market for People With Disabilities Is Booming
- 401(k) Options After You’ve Left Your Job
-
Cord Cutting Could Help You Save Over $10,000 in 10 YearsHow cutting the cord can save you money and how those savings can grow over time.
-
The '8-Year Rule of Social Security' — A Retirement RuleThe '8-Year Rule of Social Security' holds that it's best to be like Ike — Eisenhower, that is. The five-star General knew a thing or two about good timing.
-
You Were Planning to Retire This Year: Should You Go Ahead?If the economic climate is making you doubt whether you should retire this year, these three questions will help you make up your mind.
-
Are You Owed Money Thanks to the SSFA? You Might Need to Do Something to Get ItThe Social Security Fairness Act removed restrictions on benefits for people with government pensions. If you're one of them, don't leave money on the table. Here's how you can be proactive in claiming what you're due.
-
From Wills to Wishes: An Expert Guide to Your Estate Planning PlaybookConsider supplementing your traditional legal documents with this essential road map to guide your loved ones through the emotional and logistical details that will follow your loss.
-
Your Home + Your IRA = Your Long-Term Care SolutionIf you're worried that long-term care costs will drain your retirement savings, consider a personalized retirement plan that could solve your problem.
-
I'm a Financial Planner: Retirees Should Never Do These Four Things in a RecessionRecessions are scary business, especially for retirees. They can scare even the most prepared folks into making bad moves — like these.
-
A Retirement Planner's Advice for Taking the Guesswork Out of Income PlanningOnce you've saved for retirement, you'll need your nest egg to support you for as many as 30 years. For that, you need a clear income strategy, not guesswork.
-
Why Smart Retirees Are Ditching Traditional Financial PlansFinancial plans based purely on growth, like the 60/40 portfolio, are built for a different era. Today’s retirees need plans based on real-life risks and goals and that feature these four elements.
-
To My Small Business: Well, I've Been Afraid of Changin', 'Cause I've Built My Life Around YouWhile thinking about succession planning might feel like anticipating a landslide (here's to you, Fleetwood Mac), there are strategies you can implement to manage the uncertainty and the transition.
