Advertisement
Economic Forecasts

Eager World Awaits American Crop Bounty

in the face of dwindling stocks of major field crops and fears of global shortages.

A huge U.S. harvest is in the works in 2011, in the face of dwindling stocks of major field crops and fears of global shortages. High prices will reward farmers, who will seed up to 9 million acres more in 2011 than last. Demand and price will dictate what gets planted most.

Corn

 

Acres planted in 2010: 88.2 millionProjected acres planted in 2011: 92.5 millionFall price 2010: $4.55/bu.Projected fall price 2011: $5.80/bu.

Advertisement - Article continues below

If weather permits and demand jumps before farmers plant, corn acreage will jump by as much as six million acres in 2011. With an average 160 bushels/acre yield, that could produce 1.5 billion additional bushels to meet food and ethanol demands. Prices will remain strong despite increased supply.

Soybeans

 

Acres planted in 2010: 77.4 millionProjected acres planted in 2011: 78 millionFall price 2010: $11/bu.Projected fall price 2011: $13/bu.

Record acreages are in the cards and demand is robust. Exports of soybeans plus soy oil and meal are hopping, and Congress goosed demand by extending the biodiesel fuel blender subsidy. Another plus: Soft winter wheat will be harvested in Midwestern and eastern states by early summer and many fields reseeded with soybeans.

Cotton

 

Acres planted in 2010: 11 millionProjected acres planted in 2011: 12.6 millionFall price 2010: $0.80/lb.Projected fall price 2011: $1.50/lb.

Advertisement
Advertisement - Article continues below

Cotton plantings will soar to a five-year peak in 2011, if enough rain comes to parched Texas, which grows half of all U.S. cotton, and if conditions in the rest of the South allow normal planting. If Texas gets rain, acreage will expand 15% in 2011 on top of the 20% jump in 2010. There’s a strong market: Exports to Asia are up 118% since last July, compared with a year earlier.

Spring Wheat

 

Acres planted in 2010: 13.7 millionProjected acres planted in 2011: 14.2 millionFall price 2010: $6/bu.Projected fall price 2011: $8.70/bu.

Wheat acreage will rise only modestly, with increases in Midwestern and Eastern states offset by farmers switching to higher-value crops in other areas.

Rice

 

Acres planted in 2010: 3.64 million acresProjected acres planted in 2011: 3.1 millionFall price 2010: $11.50/cwt.Projected fall price 2011: $11/cwt.

Rice acreage will fall by 10% to 15% from 2010’s huge crop. Big stocks on hand will keep rice prices in the moderate range, despite strong global demand and sales.

The Known Unknown

 

Drought on the southern Plains is withering the winter wheat and looming over spring planting. Corn Belt fields mired in mud are likely because of heavy rains, thwarting planting efforts. Late seeding would surely slash crop acreage results.

Advertisement

Most Popular

2020 Stock Market Holidays and Bond Market Holidays
Markets

2020 Stock Market Holidays and Bond Market Holidays

Is the market open today? Take a look at which holidays the stock markets and bond markets take off in 2020.
July 1, 2020
What Are the Income Tax Brackets for 2020 vs. 2019?
tax brackets

What Are the Income Tax Brackets for 2020 vs. 2019?

The IRS unveiled the 2020 tax brackets, and it's never too early to start planning to minimize your future tax bill.
June 20, 2020
Searching for the Perfect Place to Retire
Empty Nesters

Searching for the Perfect Place to Retire

We home in on two places with less traffic and lower costs. 
July 2, 2020

Recommended

Travel Planning in the Time of Coronavirus
business

Travel Planning in the Time of Coronavirus

Insurance may not cover canceled vacations, but airlines and hotels may be flexible.
June 11, 2020
13 Things That May Soon Disappear Forever (The Pandemic Edition)
business

13 Things That May Soon Disappear Forever (The Pandemic Edition)

Emerging technologies (and now the COVID-19 pandemic) are putting an end to these familiar items and practices.
June 9, 2020
Don't Let the Drama Surrounding PPP Distract You from Running Your Business
business

Don't Let the Drama Surrounding PPP Distract You from Running Your Business

If you're so wrapped up in worry about your Paycheck Protection Program loan not being forgiven, think about the worst-case scenario. It might not be …
June 5, 2020
Another Epidemic to Worry About: Identity Theft
business

Another Epidemic to Worry About: Identity Theft

Fraud losses grew in 2019 and are likely to increase in 2020.
June 5, 2020