Castle No Shoo-in For Delaware Senate Seat

Republicans will be making a mistake if they take Joe Biden's old seat for granted.

With House control seemingly within their grasp, Republicans have begun to dream of adding the Senate, but there’s no way to do that without winning Vice President Joe Biden’s old seat in Delaware. The conventional wisdom for months has been that GOP Rep. Mike Castle would walk to a victory over lesser known Democrat Chris Coons. Most of the analysts who track specific races make Castle a heavy favorite, but this race may turn out to be a close one.

A Rasmussen poll taken July 10-11 showed Castle with a 47%-36% lead over Coons. That may seem like a comfortable cushion, but it’s not -- not when you consider that Castle led 55%-32% in April. And not when you consider that Castle was under the 50% mark -- generally considered the danger zone for incumbents. Castle isn’t an incumbent per se, but he’s close, having served the entire state in the House for 18 years and before that as governor for eight years.

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Mark Willen
Senior Political Editor, The Kiplinger Letter