What’s Your Retirement Number? Don’t Just Go by the 4% Rule

Two fish bowls sit side by side: One has four small fish, and one has one big fish.

(Image credit: Getty Images)

By Jerry Golden, Investment Adviser Representative

published 1 December 2021

Numbers rule our retirement decisions, and we usually have questions about them. At what age will we stop working full time? How long of a retirement should we plan for? What do today’s low interest rates mean to our future income? Can we count on a reasonable dividend yield from our stock portfolio? What percentage of our income should be guaranteed for life, through Social Security, pension income and annuity payments?

Dollars or Percentages

We also look at retirement income as both dollar amounts and percentages. Should we try to replace 100% of our former income during retirement? Or should we set a fixed budget and find a way to meet that amount? You can determine which approach appeals to you by thinking about your last mortgage refinance. Did you congratulate yourself for shaving a percentage point or two off the mortgage rate, or plan for ways to spend the extra $300 you saved every month?

The 4% rule of thumb is another percentage, and it looms over the majority of retirement decisions. This is the rule that says people with a reasonable amount of savings when they retire should be able to make that pot of money last for 30 years even as they remove 4% of the total each year for living expenses. Studies have shown that three-quarters of all financial advisers rely on the 4% rule when offering guidance to their clients.

Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal Finance

Be a smarter, better informed investor.

Save up to 74%

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/hwgJ7osrMtUWhk5koeVme7-200-80.png

Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free E-Newsletters

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.

Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.

There’s just one problem. Baby Boomers retired last year at the rate of about 8,800 a day, or 3.2 million a year. And one size does not fit 3.2 million people. In fact, it is reasonable to think that every one of those retirees will seek a number that is right for them as they customize their retirement income plan to their specific needs. Further, the number is dependent on market conditions. When Wade Pfau, a financial academic, was asked whether the 4% rule of thumb still applies, he suggested that while it worked historically, it never dealt with the current low interest rates and high stock market valuations at the same time.

Your age, gender and marital status, all of which impact the life expectancy of your plan.
Market returns, interest and dividend rates, and inflation expectations.
Your legacy objectives for your kids and grandkids.
The amount of retirement savings you have accumulated.
Where your savings are invested: rollover IRA versus personal (after-tax) savings or even equity in your home.
Your attitude toward taxes, both current and proposed.

You can see that, unlike the general 4% rule of thumb, a recommended SIP can vary from a high of 5.26% to a low of 4.39%, even before we take other factors into account. Our point is not that it’s higher than the 4% rule, it’s that it’s personalized to the individual. Further, even though it’s more customized, you need to drill down and find out what’s behind the Income Allocation numbers.

Disclaimer

This article was written by and presents the views of our contributing adviser, not the Kiplinger editorial staff. You can check adviser records with the SEC or with FINRA.

Topics

Building Wealth

Jerry Golden is the founder and CEO of Golden Retirement Advisors Inc. He specializes in helping consumers create retirement plans that provide income that cannot be outlived. Find out more at Go2income.com, where consumers can explore all types of income annuity options, anonymously and at no cost.