Stocks closed out the week on a down note after the August jobs report increased rate-hike expectations and boosted Treasury yields. This makes the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) the most important event we're watching next week, with the inflation data landing just ahead of the September Fed meeting.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, easily exceeding economists' estimates of 58,000. The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, remained at 4.1%, as expected.

Additionally, job growth for June (+11,000 to +31,000) and July (+44,000 to +21,000) was upwardly revised, resulting in a combined 55,000 more jobs than previously reported.

The good-news-is-bad-news jobs report sent expectations for a September rate hike higher. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 58% chance the central bank will increase the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point when its next meeting concludes on September 16, up from 49% one day ago.

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Treasury yields resumed their march higher, too. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 4.3 basis points to 4.377% — a new 52-week peak — and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 2.2 basis points to 4.784%.

As for equities, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 53,414, the broader S&P 500 shed 0.4% to 7,718, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gave back 0.3% to 26,506.

As a reminder, Monday is a stock market holiday, with both equity and bond trading closed for Labor Day.

The big data point comes next week

"The August payroll release quelled any lingering labor fears, putting next week's inflation data firmly in the driver's seat for the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision later this month," says Jeff Schulze, head investment strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute.

First up on next week's economic calendar is Thursday morning's release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). This will be followed by the August CPI, which is due out Friday morning.

Deutsche Bank economists expect PPI to be 0.2% higher from July to August and up 3.3% year over year. Headline CPI, meanwhile, should get a boost from rising energy prices, the economists say, which has them calling for 0.4% and 3.4% monthly and yearly increases, respectively.

Lululemon has its worst day in a year after earnings

In single-stock news, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) plunged 17.4% — its worst day in a year — after the athletic apparel retailer reported earnings.

For its fiscal second quarter, LULU said earnings fell 33.5% year over year to $2.06 per share, while revenue slumped 4% to $2.4 billion. Comparable sales were down 9%.

Lululemon also said it expects its top and bottom lines to contract in its fiscal third quarter, and it lowered its full-year outlook.

"We know there is much more work to be done," acknowledged interim co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer Meghan Frank on the earnings call. "We're excited our incoming CEO, Heidi O'Neill, joins us next week. And we expect she will take a deep dive into the business, evaluating our strategy and current action plans."

In the near term, Frank added, the company remains " focused on execution."

Today's post-earnings plunge is just more of the same for the consumer discretionary stock, which is now down nearly 50% for the year to date. But UBS Global Research analyst Jay Sole warns against buying the dip on struggling LULU.

"We don't believe a pullback represents a good buying opportunity," Sole says. "The main reason is we see big earnings-per-share downside over the near term and also see little upside risk."

Guidewire sinks 20% on weak guidance

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Guidewire Software (GWRE) sank 20%, one of its biggest one-day losses on record, after the cloud-based insurance platform unveiled its fiscal fourth-quarter results.

While the company reported higher-than-expected top- and bottom-line results, its fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue fell short of Wall Street's estimates.

Analysts don't seem too worried. "Guidewire reported a strong close to its fiscal year with all key metrics ahead of expectations, a record 26 cloud deals in the fourth quarter, and accelerating customer adoption of the company’s early agentic offerings," says William Blair analyst Dylan Becker, who has an Outperform (Buy) rating on the tech stock.

Becker adds that GWRE "remains uniquely positioned as the trusted system of record for the P&C economy, supported by increasing momentum across carrier tiers, product offerings, and cloud migration activity," all of which will drive long-term growth for the company.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate Thursday and kept climbing into the close as market participants cheered easing Treasury yields and pulled back their rate-hike bets.

Strong gains for several mega-cap stocks also kept the wind at the market's back, with Tesla (TSLA) soaring ahead of its Cybercab event and Nvidia (NVDA) jumping on its $13 billion purchase of Hugging Face.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.2% at 53,686, the broader S&P 500 was 1.1% higher at 7,747, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% to 26,584.

Helping boost stocks was commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said during a moderated discussion that while inflation is "meaningfully above" the central bank's 2% target, he is "seeing some signs of disinflation."

If this trend continues, Waller said he "would be inclined to hold the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting." He added, however, that if the trend does not continue, "a small adjustment" to interest rates may be necessary.

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The relatively dovish take was enough to send yields on the 2-year Treasury (-4.6 basis points to 4.34%) and 10-year Treasury (-2.2 basis points to 4.772%) lower.

The odds of a September rate hike dropped too. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 50% probability that the Fed will hike rates by a quarter-percentage point later this month, down from 63% one day ago.

Tesla, Nvidia pop; Broadcom drops

Tesla was one of several mega-cap stocks that closed higher Thursday, with shares climbing 5.4% ahead of the electric vehicle maker's Cybercab event in Austin, Texas, where it will debut its two-seater robotaxi.

Nvidia, meanwhile, rose 1.8% after the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker confirmed it will buy open-source AI platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion — its second-largest acquisition ever.

"For Nvidia, the acquisition will provide a direct view into which models, architectures and development tools are gaining traction," wrote Kiplinger contributor Tom Taulli last week when rumors of the deal first surfaced. "Those insights could help NVDA optimize its chips, libraries and cloud services for emerging workloads."

But not all mega caps gained ground today. Broadcom (AVGO), for one, slumped 2.7% after the chipmaker reported its fiscal third-quarter results. While AVGO beat on the top and bottom lines, it forecast fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $34.8 billion, below the $35.03 billion analysts are expecting.

Snowflake soars nearly 17% after earnings

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Snowflake (SNOW) surged 16.6% after the cloud-based data platform blew past Wall Street's earnings-per-share and revenue estimates for its fiscal 2027 second quarter.

"Demand for SNOW's new AI products — CoCo and Snowflake CoWork — was robust" and "guidance was impressive," says Mizuho Americas analyst Gregg Moskowitz. "We continue to believe healthy consumption activity, along with secular trends driving enterprises to modernize their data estates, set up SNOW for sustained momentum."

Moskowitz adds that the company has several positive catalysts "that will be additive to growth," including new AI products and improving go-to-market technology. He calls SNOW "a top pick."

Snowflake's post-earnings pop lifted several software stocks on Thursday, including Salesforce (CRM, +2.9%) and ServiceNow (NOW, +6.5%).

Campbell's slashes its dividend

Campbell's (CPB), meanwhile, slumped 7% after the packaged foods company reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $2.14 billion, below analysts' estimates, as consumers shop for lower-priced items.

And while earnings per share were in line with Wall Street's expectations, the company said it expects revenue and earnings to be down in fiscal 2027.

Campbell's CEO Mick Beekhuizen called the results "unacceptable" and said the company is "taking decisive action to improve it." Part of this includes a 36% cut to its quarterly dividend, which will help reduce debt on its balance sheet.

The choice to cut the dividend was "difficult," Beekhuizen said, but also "a necessary decision that we needed to take."

The consumer staples stock is now down more than 20% for the year to date.

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Stocks closed higher Wednesday, though gains were contained as Treasury yields held near recent highs. Market participants also weighed weak private payrolls data, which arrived ahead of this Friday's all-important August jobs report.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 53,061, the broader S&P 500 was 0.5% higher at 7,666, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,217.

Easing Treasury yields provided some relief on Wall Street today. The yield on the 2-year Treasury hit its highest level since mid-2024 in intraday trading, but ended the session down 2.3 basis points at 4.371%. Likewise, the 10-year Treasury yield topped out at a nearly three-year peak before settling down 1.6 basis points at 4.78%.

"Today's weaker-than-anticipated ADP employment report, paired with market-friendly commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is halting bond pain and driving bargain hunters into equities," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The ADP report showed the U.S. added 38,000 private payrolls, below the 46,000 economists expected and the lowest level since January. This, says Torres, signals "an increasingly fragile labor market that may prevent the U.S. monetary policy authority from hiking rates more than once."

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Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams, who, because of his position, is a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), told CNBC that the central bank just needs to "wait and see" on interest rates.

While the regional Fed president said that inflation data have "been encouraging," he added that "there's no clear signs right now whether monetary policy currently is sufficient to make sure we bring inflation back to target."

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in a 62% chance the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point when its September policy meeting wraps up two weeks from today — up from 37% one week ago.

Credo Technology plunges 20% after beat-and-raise quarter

In single-stock news, Credo Technology Group (CRDO) plunged 20% — the tech stock's worst day since January 2025 — after the high-speed digital connectivity and semiconductor solutions specialist reported earnings.

For its fiscal 2027 first quarter, CRDO reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue. It also raised its full-year revenue growth outlook.

But Wall Street may have been looking for a more substantial fiscal Q2 revenue forecast, with Credo guiding for $525 million to $535 million — only matching analysts' estimates at the midpoint.

Still, William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji says the fiscal Q1 print was "clean," and he expects "a strong inflection through the second half as the company ramps up toward its more than $600 million optical revenue target while benefiting from expanding AEC [Active Electrical Cable] engagements and the transition to 100G/200G per lane solutions."

Phillips Edison hikes its monthly dividend payout

Phillips Edison & Company (PECO), which operates grocery-anchored shopping centers, rose 0.8% today after the real estate investment trust (REIT) raised its monthly dividend payout by 6.2% to 11.5 cents per share. This works out to an annualized rate of $1.38 per share.

PECO has been a reliable dividend grower, having increased its annual payout in each of the past six years. This latest hike also marks its third consecutive increase of over 5%.

Why is dividend growth important?

"Shares in companies that raise their payouts like clockwork decade after decade can produce superior total returns (price change plus dividends) over the long run, even if they sport apparently ho-hum yields to begin with," explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature on the best dividend stocks for dependable growth. "That's partly because regular dividend increases lift the yield on an investor's original cost basis. Stick around long enough, and the modest yield you received on your initial investment can hit double digits one day."

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Escalation in the Middle East made for higher crude oil prices and interest rates but lower levels for the main equity indexes again Tuesday. Indeed, the worst month for the stock market started on a note consistent with historical seasonality data, as well as recent geopolitical developments.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract rose another 5.7% to $90.64 per barrel after a private maritime security firm, Marisks, reported attacks on two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and the U.S. launched new strikes against Iran on Tuesday.

More war on top of more government spending on top of more borrowed capex for the AI boom means more inflation everywhere, at least according to expectations reflected in global bond yields.

The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond broke above 3% for the first time since 1996, for example, and the 30-year U.K. government bond yield hit its highest level since 1998.

Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury hit a new 52-week intraday high of 4.400% and closed up 4.8 basis points to 4.398%. The 10-year Treasury yield (+3.4 bps, 4.792%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (+1.7 bps, 5.266%) were up again, too.

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A month ago, the probability of a rate hike at the conclusion of the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was 67.0%. A week ago, according to CME FedWatch, it was 39.6%.

Today, with upward pressure on prices rising again, the odds of a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate are back up to 68.2%.

It's "risk off" right now

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.8% at 52,766, the broad-based S&P 500 had shed 0.7% to 7,631, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 1.03% at 26,099.

Energy stocks, including Chevron (CVX, +2.4%) with its new deal to exploit Venezuelan oil reserves, led to the upside.

Consumer staples stocks, including Procter & Gamble (PG, +0.8%), and healthcare names such as UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +1.8%) also benefited from a rotation into traditional "risk-off" sectors. Utility stocks were up, too.

Apple (AAPL, +2.6%) was the best-performing Dow Jones stock during its first trading session under new leadership.

If new CEO John Ternus does what old CEO Tim Cook did in terms of market cap multiplication, AAPL will be worth well north of $60 trillion by the time he steps aside in a decade and a half or so. Apple's market cap at today's close was $4.75 trillion.

PANW gives back some of its big gain

Palo Alto Networks (PANW, -5.2%), a cybersecurity stock with an AI twist good enough to send it more than 100% higher since early May, retraced some of that move ahead of its turn on the earnings calendar after today's close.

Wall Street expects PANW management to report earnings of 98 cents per share, up from 95 cents a year ago, on revenue growth of more than 33% to $3.35 billion.

Stifel analyst Adam Borg reiterated his Buy rating on the tech stock and raised his 12-month target price from $330 to $415 in a mid-August earnings preview.

Borg noted that PANW was a "crowded long" with "a rich multiple and elevated expectations."

At the same time, citing recent vendor checks that continue to support its "strong positioning," the analyst believes "any near-term weakness, should there be any, gets bought."

Did Novartis get a meaningful lift?

Novartis (NVS, +6.0%), a large-cap stock whose American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) trade on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), had barely outperformed the S&P 500 year to date through Monday.

But the Switzerland-based drugmaker got a big boost Tuesday after management announced positive Phase III trial results for a pill to treat multiple sclerosis (MS).

According to Novartis, "Remibrutinib, a highly selective and potent oral Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor, demonstrated superiority versus teriflunomide in reducing annualized relapse rate (ARR) and inflammatory brain lesions with a favorable safety profile."

That's good news for people with MS and those who care about them. We'll see whether the potential blockbuster drug sways Wall Street analysts.

Five rate NVS a Buy, but four say it's a Hold and three say it's a Sell. That's good for a consensus "Hold" rating, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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A funny thing happened to the bull market that was supposedly driven by only a handful of stocks. The S&P 500 is lagging its equal-weight counterpart through the first eight months of 2026.

The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, is up 13% year to date through August 28. The main benchmark for U.S. equities is weighted by market capitalization, meaning that larger stocks have more influence on the direction of the index than smaller ones.

The 10 largest names in the S&P 500 — Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), Broadcom (AVGO), Alphabet Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms (META), Micron Technology (MU) and Tesla (TSLA) — have a collective weight of 37%.

Put another way, this murderers' row of mostly tech and communication services stocks accounts for nearly 40% of the benchmark's total value.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, in which each constituent has a 0.2% weighting, is up more than 16% so far this year. That's historically unusual, but if it helps folks stop worrying about a top-heavy market, great.

Narrow breadth, in which a relatively low number of stocks do the most heavy lifting, is the norm. Furthermore, as bull markets mature, breadth tends to widen. A rising tide lifts all boats, some faster than others, and eventually investors rotate into sectors that appear to offer better rewards for the risks they're taking.

More important, "narrow" breadth is how markets have historically generated the majority of their returns.

The 80-20 Rule — also known as the Pareto Principle — is the observation that 20% of the stocks you buy or the movies you produce or the books you publish tend to generate 80% of your returns or revenue.

If anything, when it comes to equities, the Pareto Principle greatly understates this phenomenon. Research by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business, found that if it weren't for narrow breadth, we wouldn't really have any returns at all.

"When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation," Bessembinder writes, "the best-performing 4% of listed companies explains the net gain for the entire U.S. stock market since 1926, as other stocks collectively matched Treasury bills."

In the long run, innovation and creative destruction are what make equities a winning asset class for patient, diversified investors. That's more true in the digital age, when software and silicon scale faster than old economy endeavors.

From 1990 to 2020, just 1% to 2% of public companies generated all the shareholder value in global and U.S. stock markets, notes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, citing Bessembinder's research.

"Most were tech names because the market had real trouble accurately discounting the real-world implications of Moore's Law (semiconductor compute per dollar doubled roughly every two years)," Colas writes. "Since 2023, the power of AI has more than doubled every year. If that continues for the next five years, AI will be more than 3,000 times more capable than today. This is why global Big Tech is all-in on the technology: not for today's models, but those in 2031."

It also suggests that the S&P 500 will retake its traditional lead over its equal-weight sibling.

"Both versions of the S&P 500 used to trade very similarly, but their price return correlation has dropped a lot in the 2020s," Colas adds. "The link is still strong when macro fears dominate, but it is much weaker when investor confidence is strong."

The bottom line on RSP vs SPY

All of which brings us to how important tech has been to the S&P 500 in the past two decades. Have a look at the chart below, and you'll see that despite this year's results so far, Big Tech has been a winner for the cap-weighted version of the index.

If, 20 years ago, you put $1,000 into the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the cap-weighted S&P 500, you would today have almost $8,600. That's a gain of more than 750%.

If you put the same sum into the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), you'd have less than $7,500 today — a gain of less than 650%.

Notice how the SPY's outperformance vs RSP widened substantially over the past few years. As Colas notes above, that's mostly due to the AI story — and strong investor confidence shrugging off macro uncertainty.

True, the equal-weight index casts a wider net, capturing gains from tomorrow's winners before they command larger weights. A cap-weighted index, on the other hand, simply lets its winners run.

For long-term investors, history suggests fighting a cap-weighted index — and the Big Tech AI revolution driving it — is a poor proposition.

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All three main equity indexes opened lower and stayed in the red through the last trading session of August amid a re-escalation of war in the Middle East. Crude oil spiked and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since January 2025 after the U.S. attacked Iran for the first time in a month, and the Islamic Republic responded by striking its neighbors Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.744% from 4.722% on Friday, reaching a 19-month intraday high of 4.768%. The 30-year Treasury yield (+4.1 bps, 5.249%) was up, too, but the 2-year Treasury yield (-0.1 bps, 4.339%) ticked lower. The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract added 3.0% to $85.92 per barrel.

"With traders tracking geopolitical volatility as well as potential seasonal volatility," E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin writes, "it will be interesting to see which market impulse from last week might carry over to this week — the S&P 500's net gain, or its Friday weakness following comments from Kevin Warsh."

The Fed chair reiterated his commitment to price stability during his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, saying the central bank would "have work to do" should inflation not move toward its 2% target "clearly and at sufficient speed."

In addition to weighing the impact of escalating war in the Middle East, the Fed will take account of the August jobs report on Friday. "Unexpectedly strong labor-market data this week might be taken as bad news by the market, since it could reinforce expectations for a rate hike," Larkin observes.

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CME FedWatch shows a 66.1% probability of a 25-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from 57.0% on Friday.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7% at 53,185, but the blue-chip index ended the month with a gain of 1.3%. The broad-based S&P 500 shed 0.3, but it was up 2.6% for August at 7,686. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended the day lower by 0.1% and the month higher by 3.9% at 26,370.

Another legendary Apple CEO steps aside

Apple (AAPL, -0.9%) wasn't among the handful of Dow Jones stocks posting gains today. But the iPhone maker is up about 2,740% over the trailing 15 years to August 24, 2011, the day Tim Cook took over from Steve Jobs as CEO of the iconic technology company.

Cook is stepping down from that role effective tomorrow but will remain as executive chairman.

"If there was one picture to define Tim Cook’s legacy, it would be a stock chart during his tenure," Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods writes. "Started at the bottom left and ended at the top right. A long-term uptrend with higher peaks and lower valleys along the way."

In addition to the total return, Woods notes that AAPL executed 7-for-1 and 4-for-1 stock splits, was added to the Dow, was the biggest stock in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -0.2%) equity portfolio and was, indeed, the biggest company in the world by market cap for a long stretch under Cook's leadership.

Succeeding Cook (and Jobs) is John Ternus. "At 50, Ternus is roughly the same age Cook was when he replaced Jobs," Woods observes, "but his engineering and product background offers Apple something different as it searches for its next big innovation and plays catch-up in AI. Cook proved you could successfully replace a legend, now Ternus gets the unenviable task."

California wildfire law doesn't protect EIX, PCG

Edison International (EIX, -22.9%) and PG&E (PCG, -20.0%) were the two worst S&P 500 stocks on Monday after the California State Assembly passed an amendment to wildfire legislation that doesn't include liability protection for utilities.

Gov. Gavin Newsom wanted to limit what utilities had to pay to insurance companies, some survivors, local governments and businesses claiming damages from wildfires caused by their electricity infrastructure.

According to CalMatters, the governor and leaders of California's legislature agreed on a final bill that leaves out all of Newsom's proposals. Newsom had been concerned about the impact of rising costs on investor confidence in the utility stocks.

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The main equity indexes reacted well at first to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium keynote speech on Friday. Treasury yields and odds of a rate hike in September rose, too. Stock market momentum waned as another low-volume late-summer trading session wore on, and all three indexes turned lower heading into the weekend.

At the closing bell, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5% at 26,402, but the tech-heavy index was up 0.8% for the week. The broad-based S&P 500 shed 0.3% on Friday but added 0.5% for the week to 7,711. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.02% on Friday, but Papa Dow rose 0.5% over the five days to 53,560.

Are markets pricing in a higher target range for the federal funds rate following the next Fed meeting, less than a month from now? Are investors, traders and speculators digesting Thursday's mini-boom for technology and getting ready for a return to normal trading activity after Labor Day?

Who's to say with any real authority why any one buyer or seller made that decision, let alone all of them in aggregate.

At the same time: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed," Warsh said shortly after Friday's opening bell. "Otherwise, we have work to do."

And, today, that means higher interest rates.

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The 2-year Treasury yield was up 13 basis points to 4.352% from 4.232% on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield (+5.2 bps, 4.724%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (+1.8 bps, 5.209%) were higher, too.

CME FedWatch now shows a 57.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from 35.4% on Thursday.

"Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole went further than we had anticipated in signaling that he is willing to hike rates if underlying inflation is not moving toward 2% 'clearly and at sufficient speed,'" Barclays Chief U.S. Economist Marc Giannoni writes. "We are changing our Fed call, now expecting a 25-basis-point hike in September and another one in December."

MRVL sinks 10%

Marvell Technology (MRVL, -10.3%) was the closing act for Nvidia (NVDA, -4.6%) on this week's earnings calendar, and it didn't go particularly well for the semiconductor stock from a pure price-action perspective.

Marvell beat Wall Street expectations for its fiscal second quarter revenue (+36.5% year over year) and earnings per share (+40.3% YoY). But the beat just wasn't big enough in the wake of MRVL's more than 100% share-price surge since Nvidia's $2 billion investment in the company in late March.

Still, Morgan Stanley analyst Joe Moore, citing a good quarter and outlook "largely in line with prior management expectations," reiterated his Equal Weight (Hold) rating, yet raised his 12-month target price for the AI stock from $224 to $246.

The analyst notes that Marvell now sees 2027 data center growth of 60%, up from 50%, which should drive 10% upside for earnings.

"While we wish that positive long term commentary left more room for short term beats and raises," Moore writes, "we generally agree with the long term optimism." He cites Marvell's work to diversify its growth drivers, beyond custom chips.

Moore concludes that "with AI strong across the board it's a target-rich environment," but he'd "be tactically long for the investor day if the stock sells off."

NVDA, meanwhile, was the worst Dow Jones stock on Friday, a day after posting its biggest intraday gain in more than a year.

You can catch up with this week's developments around the AI revolutionary on our Nvidia earnings blog.

There will be no $50B deal for PYPL

It was a bad day for Marvell, but PayPal Holdings (PYPL, -12.7%) was the worst S&P 500 stock on Friday after Bloomberg reported that private equity firm Advent International and privately held fintech Stripe have abandoned their joint attempt to buy the payments processing pioneer co-founded by Elon Musk.

The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with negotiations, said on August 14 that PayPal saw a $60.50 per share offer as "insufficient, but that the parties were talking about a higher price."

Takeover talk has been churning since February, and PayPal's expectations-beating second-quarter earnings helped the financial stock extend a 60%-plus rally off a mid-February 52-week low.

As Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Sanjay Sakhrani notes, the buyout bid "had been a source of support for PYPL." According to Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev, it's all about PayPal's fundamentals now.

Of course, as Bloomberg concludes, Advent and Stripe could come back with another bid "if the situation changes."

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Stocks closed higher Thursday as market participants cheered Nvidia's (NVDA) blowout earnings report. Wall Street also monitored the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his keynote speech tomorrow morning.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.2% at 53,569, the S&P 500 was 0.7% higher at 7,730, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.6% to 26,541.

The equity market got a major lift from Nvidia, which jumped 8.7% — its biggest one-day percentage gain since April 9, 2025 — after the artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether reported earnings late Wednesday.

For its fiscal 2027 second quarter, NVDA said earnings and revenue more than doubled year over year. It also gave strong guidance for its fiscal 2027 third quarter and said it expects revenue to grow 70% in fiscal 2028.

"It is the case that we've never forecasted or never guided to a year in advance," said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the earnings call. "And even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%." Huang added that Nvidia has "a huge year coming up next year, and it's going to be pretty extraordinary."

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"This is a very strong balance sheet with a clear vision of growth, and they are putting up numbers consistently to support that," says Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management.

While Mulberry notes that some of this is already priced into the AI stock, he expects Nvidia "to innovate, and with their scale, it will be difficult to unseat them any time soon."

For the full rundown on all things Nvidia, check out our earnings blog.

Salesforce soars 23% after earnings

NVDA's post-earnings pop wasn't enough to make it the best Dow Jones stock Thursday. That honor went to Salesforce (CRM), which surged 22.6% — its second-best day ever, behind only August 26, 2020, when the tech stock jumped 26% in a single session.

After Wednesday's close, the software-as-a-service (SaaS) provider reported higher-than-expected fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings and revenue. The company also raised its full-year revenue forecast, now expecting top-line growth of 11% to 12% vs its previous outlook of 10% to 11%.

"We just delivered one of our best quarters ever, outperforming across every key metric,” said Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff in the earnings release. "AI is delivering value across every layer of our platform. We're seeing incredible demand for our AI and data products, with ARR [annual recurring revenue] about to cross $4 billion."

A separate announcement detailed an expanded partnership between Salesforce and Anthropic. Specifically, the two firms have launched Claudeforce, a plugin that connects Anthropic's Claude AI chatbot into Salesforce's software products companies use.

The impressive earnings results and integration of Claude "reinforce Salesforce's positioning in the agentic AI landscape, support the reacceleration narrative, and should ease bear case concerns around AI disruption risk," says Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz, who reiterated an Outperform (Buy) rating on the blue chip stock and raised his price target to $275 from $250.

Nordson raises its dividend by 15%, its 63rd straight hike

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Nordson (NDSN, -1.1%) reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue and raised its full-year outlook.

The company, which creates products and systems to apply, spray and measure fluids such as adhesives and paints at the industrial level, also hiked its quarterly dividend by 15%.

NDSN has long been one of the best dividend growth stocks to own, and was added to the Dividend Aristocrats in early 2023. This latest increase marks the 63rd straight year the company has boosted its payout.

What to watch for at Jackson Hole

The week's not over yet, and tomorrow's keynote speech by Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium could create some market volatility.

It's difficult to predict the tone Warsh will take in his speech, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel. "Since taking office, he has favored a more restrained communications approach and has moved away from explicit forward guidance."

Expectations are for the Fed chair to reiterate his commitment to bringing inflation back down to the central bank's 2% target, but stop short of giving specific guidance on interest rates.

But Zureick notes that several other Federal Reserve officials are speaking at Jackson Hole, and today, "Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both delivered hawkish assessments of monetary policy."

The economist believes that their remarks "underscore the risk that Warsh's address may lean more heavily toward restoring price stability than investors currently expect."

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Stocks barely budged Wednesday as Wall Street took a cautious stance ahead of this week's key events, namely, Nvidia (NVDA) earnings this evening and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Market participants also sifted through a busy economic calendar, which included a hotter-than-expected inflation report.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — rose 0.2% from June to July, and was up 3.7% from the year-ago period. Economists expected the monthly and yearly figures to arrive at 0.1% and 3.6%, respectively.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year, matching economists' forecasts.

"With markets continuing to be sensitive to any data that could increase the odds of rate hikes, today's mild upside inflation surprise and relative economic strength weren't necessarily what investors — or the Fed — wanted to see," says Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

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The data did little to shift the needle on expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 60% chance the central bank keeps the federal funds rate unchanged next month — roughly the same as yesterday.

But Zentner says "if subsequent data point in the same direction, the Fed may feel more pressure to move off the sidelines."

Short-term Treasury yields ticked higher after today's inflation data while equity benchmarks slipped. At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% at 53,463, the broader S&P 500 was off 0.02% at 7,675, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.08% lower at 26,130.

Nike hits a 12-year low after downgrade

Nike (NKE) was the worst Dow Jones stock today — sinking 2.3% and hitting a 12-year intraday low of $38.41 along the way — after Truist Securities analyst Joseph Civello downgraded the athletic apparel and footwear retailer to Hold from Buy. He also lowered his price target to $42 from $47.

The downgrade comes after Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS, +4.3%) cut its full-year guidance Wednesday on weakness in its Foot Locker chain, sending shares of the consumer discretionary stock down more than 30%. This, says Civello, "signals incremental murkiness around NKE's turnaround progress."

Civello also downgraded Dick's to Hold and slashed his price target to $135 from $270, saying the athletic retail chain "appears increasingly exposed to Nike with limited visibility into the product improvements needed for the brand's turnaround." The 2025 acquisition of Foot Locker increased Nike's sales penetration at DKS to 35%-40% from 25%.

Nvidia drops ahead of earnings

Nvidia was another Dow stock that closed in negative territory today, falling 1.6%, ahead of the artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether's critical after-the-close earnings report.

Wall Street is expecting another beat-and-raise quarter from the chipmaker, but the real uncertainty rests in the forward guidance and what it means for AI demand, as well as the stock's reaction and how that impacts the broader market.

You can follow along with all the latest news and commentary on Nvidia earnings on our live blog.

Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole

Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel, says the timing of Nvidia's earnings event is notable considering it comes ahead of Chair Warsh's first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this Friday.

"The current bull market continues to be driven by the artificial intelligence investment theme, and Warsh's commentary could influence investor sentiment," Zureick explains.

The Fed chair has been deliberately vague ahead of the event and "higher long-term interest rates represent a potential headwind for the artificial intelligence trade," says Zureick.

Following today's sticky PCE data, Wall Street will be looking to Warsh for more clarity on inflation and interest rates.

Meta agrees to $18 billion landmark settlement

While Nvidia and Warsh are top of mind this week, Meta Platforms (META, +1.1%) made headlines after the company agreed to an $18 billion settlement with 48 states, the District of Columbia and several U.S. territories to end a landmark case over social media's impact on children.

Meta will also implement changes at Facebook and Instagram, including setting a two-hour time limit on the apps for users under the age of 18 and launching "night mode" and "school mode."

Under the terms of the agreement, the social media platform will only pay out 70% of the settlement unless TikTok and Alphabet's (GOOGL, -1.4%) YouTube agree to pay a financial penalty, and the two platforms, along with Snapchat parent Snap (SNAP, -8.5%), agree to implement new safety measures.

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All three main equity indexes opened higher and held modest gains through Tuesday's trading session, as market participants looked beyond ratcheting geopolitical tension to focus on earnings and guidance from the world's most important publicly traded company.

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney are raising tariffs in North America, while President Xi Jinping says China is prepared to counter U.S. economic moves against Iran.

Investors, traders and speculators took comfort in a New York Times report that the State Department is preparing to send diplomats back to Middle East embassies evacuated because of the war, "suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities."

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell more than 4% to $81.54 per barrel. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down 5.3 basis points to 4.183% from 4.236% on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield (-7.5 bps, 4.629%) and the 30-year Treasury yield (-6.7 bps, 5.164%) inched back, too.

Nvidia (NVDA, +2.2%) ended a seven-session losing streak and was among the top three Dow Jones stocks a day ahead of the scheduled release of its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results after Wednesday's close.

Semiconductor stocks bounced back after falling sharply on Monday, with Marvell Technology (MRVL, +4.8%) rallying ahead of its turn on the earnings calendar after Thursday's closing bell.

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"Here's the setup nobody's saying out loud," Siebert Chief Investment Officer Mark Malek observes. "Nvidia has beaten every quarter for two straight years, they're about to double revenue year-over-year and the stock is flat since the last earnings call. Flat! That tells you the market has already priced in perfection and moved on to the next question."

As Malek explains, what matters is management's guidance for Nvidia's fiscal third quarter. "Consensus is around $104 billion, but the buyside is whispering higher," the CIO says, "and that gap is where the stock lives or dies."

Malek is looking for CEO Jensen Huang "to hand the market a new story: Rubin ramping ahead of schedule, China coming back, something. Otherwise he delivers the greatest quarter in the history of the semiconductor industry and the stock does nothing again."

We're sharing updates and commentary in real time on our live Nvidia earnings blog.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 53,577, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.3% to 7,677, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by 0.7% to 26,151.

Canadian banks are above the fray

Bank of Montreal (BMO, +0.6%) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS, +7.2%) sit just outside the rankings of North America's biggest financial stocks based on criteria such as market capitalization and total assets.

But Bank of Montreal, Canada's oldest bank, hasn't cut its dividend since 1829, before Canada's independence and the U.S. Civil War. Scotiabank hasn't cut its dividend since 1942, spanning World War II and the great financial crisis. And that's something bigger names such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +0.1%) just can't say.

Fiscal third-quarter results suggest those streaks for the Canadian banks should continue for the foreseeable future, proliferating trade wars and real wars notwithstanding. Bank of Montreal topped Wall Street's top- and bottom-line forecasts and also announced a stepped-up stock buyback plan. Scotiabank (PDF) added a guidance boost to its top-and-bottom-line beat, for good measure.

"The Canada-U.S. relationship is going through a period of adjustment," CEO Darryl White said during Bank of Montreal's conference call, citing retaliatory tariffs announced by Trump and Carney and acknowledging headwinds for the U.S. and Canada, including trade-related businesses and consumers.

"Against that backdrop," the CEO added, "the world is looking for places that can deliver long-term growth and support resiliency in an increasingly uncertain environment, and Canada has real advantages: a stable financial system, abundant resources, world class talent and a platform to export globally through the world's most comprehensive set of free trade agreements."

DKS misses big

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS, -30.6%) gave back about $4.9 billion in market cap after management airballed its fiscal second-quarter report, with the consumer discretionary stock missing on earnings and revenue and cutting full-year guidance.

Same-store sales were up 2.1%, and sporting goods sales were up 4.9%. But Wall Street forecast 4% overall growth, and sporting goods sales growth decelerated from 6% during the first quarter. A bigger issue for the mid-cap stock is Foot Locker, which Dick's acquired last September and where same-store sales were down 3.6%.

"As the quarter progressed," Executive Chairman Ed Stack (PDF) explained in the company's earnings announcement, "conditions across portions of the athletic footwear and apparel marketplace became increasingly promotional, and we took action to remain competitively priced to protect and grow our leadership position."

Dick's now expects to report earnings of $11 to $12 per share for fiscal 2027, down from previous guidance of $13.50 to $14.50 and below Wall Street's estimate of $14.28.

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Stocks were mixed at the beginning of a big week for the AI trade and long-term monetary policy, with an uneasy stalemate holding in the Middle East and a trade war widening in North America. Relatively few management teams are scheduled to report financial results and offer guidance this week, but the biggest company in the world by market cap is among them. We'll also hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 53,417. But the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.3% to 7,652, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had declined 0.8% to 25,980.

This week will be defined by the earnings calendar, with Nvidia (NVDA, -2.9%) reporting fiscal 2027 second-quarter results and management sharing its vision of where the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution goes from here after the closing bell on Wednesday.

"Geopolitics, oil prices, high yields, and tech volatility all contributed to last week's stock market pullback, and they all look to be in play this week, too," writes E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin.

Larkin notes that U.S. economic sanctions on Iran, the Treasury's attempts to lower long-term yields and incoming data, including the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, may shape sentiment. "But," he concludes," Nvidia and other tech earnings are positioned to be a major weight on the market's momentum scale."

At the same time, with Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum trending higher, the week could be redefined by the economic calendar, beginning on Friday at 10 am Eastern Standard Time.

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That's when Warsh makes his first keynote speech as the leader of the most important central bank in the world at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury inched up to 4.240% vs 4.234% on Friday. The 2-year yield was 3.379% on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran began.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to 4.706% from 4.738%, but is up from 3.960% on February 27. The 30-year Treasury yield declined to 5.235% vs 5.276% last week and 4.630% before the war.

The other chip stock on the earnings calendar

Marvell Technology (MRVL, -3.3%) follows fellow semiconductor stock Nvidia in the reporting-season order when it steps up after the closing bell on Thursday. But Marvell is ahead of Nvidia when it comes to year-to-date share-price performance, with MRVL up 179.3% vs 15.3% for NVDA (and 13.0% for the S&P 500) through Friday.

Wall Street expects MRVL management to report year-over-year earnings growth of 39% on revenue growth of 35%, pale compared to 99% and 97% growth anticipated for NVDA. Of course, much of Marvell's run is rooted in a $2 billion investment from Nvidia announced on March 31.

And there is significant demand elsewhere for its custom application-specific chips, and Wall Street is bullish. Indeed, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price on the tech stock from $240 to $310, citing its opportunity in custom silicon.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore maintained his Equal Weight (Hold) rating but raised his 12-month target price from $195 to $224.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -2.7%), up 72.9% through Friday, was also down on Monday, as investors, traders and speculators continue to moderate their optimism with incoming data and updated guidance from Nvidia on the way.

Micron Technology (MU, -5.8%), which was up nearly 240% year to date through Friday, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -3.5%), up 121% in 2026, posted big red numbers.

Expedia is on the move again

Expedia (EXPE, +5.4%) was the top-performing S&P 500 stock on Monday after Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for the online travel agency from $375 to $430.

Mahaney had reiterated his rating and raised his target from $350 to $375 on August 6 following a beat-and-raise second-quarter report from management of the consumer discretionary stock. His current target is now the highest among 35 analysts who provide one.

Since hitting a 52-week low of $185.34 intraday on February 23, EXPE is up more than 70%, far outpacing a gain of about 14% for the S&P 500. Mahaney still sees upside of almost 30% from here.

The travel stock has split the Wall Street analyst community, reflected in 17 Buy ratings vs 20 Holds and 1 Sell. The average 12-month target price through August 21 was $336.23.

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The main equity indexes rebounded from Thursday's sharp sell-off, but all three were down for the week. The trend for Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum reflects growing concerns about persistent inflation, government debt and how the Federal Reserve will respond.

At the closing bell on Friday, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 1.0% to 53,277, but still finished the week lower by 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4% to 26,180, narrowing its weekly decline to 2.1%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,674, though the broad-based index lost 1.4% this week.

"It's not surprising that the S&P 500 pulled back modestly after its early-August breakout to new record highs," observes Daniel Skelly, head of research and strategy for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "But the move may have taken on additional significance in some circles, given the role tech softness played."

Skelly notes that although we may see more volatility in the near term due to seasonal factors, "the longer-term AI capex story remains positive."

Meanwhile, the bond market continues to adjust to a Treasury Department plan announced on Wednesday to increase buybacks of longer-dated debt.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up to 4.232% vs 4.185% on Thursday. The 2-year was at 4.171% last Friday. The 10-year Treasury ticked up to 4.736% from 4.698% on Thursday and 4.696% a week ago. The 30-year Treasury climbed to 5.274%, up from 5.237% yesterday and 5.266% at the end of last week.

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver the keynote address at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, August 28, the highlight of next week's economic calendar.

According to University of Pennsylvania Wharton School Professor Patrick Harker, a former president of the Philadelphia Fed, "Warsh is going to have to address the elephant in the room, which is inflation."

Nvidia's growth is about supply and demand

Nvidia (NVDA, -1.0%) will offer fresh evidence for Skelly and others who see more support for stocks from AI capex when the chipmaker takes another turn on the earnings calendar after the closing bell next Wednesday.

Wall Street expects management to report year-over-year earnings growth of 99.0% on annual revenue growth of 97.0%. "Notably," Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland writes in a preview of Nvidia's report, "AI demand is supported by increasing hyperscale capex plans. The top five hyperscalers are now expected to nearly double capex spend in 2026."

Rolland also highlights a constructive outlook for 2027, when capex is expected to exceed $1 trillion. "We still view Nvidia as having one of the largest opportunity sets ahead," the analyst concludes.

Indeed, as Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates writes, "Due to the anticipation of Nvidia's spectacular quarterly results, plus the fact that the financial media will be all excited about their annual trip to Jackson Hole for the annual Kansas City Fed Conference, investor optimism is expected to be sky-high next week."

HOOD tops the S&P 500

Robinhood Markets (HOOD, +12.9%) led S&P 500 stocks higher on Friday after President Donald Trump advocated for passage of federal legislation that would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets such as bitcoin during a White House summit on Thursday.

"We need Congress to take the next step by passing the Clarity Act — a fair version of the Clarity Act," Trump said in remarks prepared for the event. "It's a very, very powerful structured legislation which will keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else, will open the door to the next wave of innovations and innovators."

Crypto trading platform Coinbase Global (COIN, +8.2%) and bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR, +6.1%) have also rallied on the president's recent endorsement of a broad bill to support digital assets.

Moderna (MRNA, +8.9%) was the second-best performer in the S&P 500, following its 177% rise on Wednesday and 24% fall on Thursday with another dramatic move.

Merck (MRK, +2.4%), Moderna's partner on the melanoma cancer vaccine that triggered this week's volatility, was second only to Goldman Sachs (GS, +3.7%) among Dow Jones stocks.

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Stocks opened lower Thursday and stayed in negative territory through the close. Weighing on sentiment today were bouncing Treasury yields. A disappointing round of retail earnings didn't help, either.

The main equity indexes snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday as bond yields fell following the Treasury Department's announcement that it will increase buybacks of longer-dated debt.

But yields on the 10-year Treasury (+5.1 basis points to 4.704%) and the 30-year Treasury (+5.4 basis points to 5.248%) resumed their climb today after a report released late Wednesday showed U.S. debt has crossed the $40 trillion mark.

Rising yields pressured the stock market, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closing down 1.0% at 26,067, the broader S&P 500 falling 0.9% to 7,641, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.3% to 52,759.

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Walmart has its worst day in four years on same-store sales miss

Walmart (WMT) was the worst Dow Jones stock today, sinking 9.2% — its worst day since May 16, 2022.

Ahead of the open, WMT reported better-than-expected fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings of 81 cents per share on revenue of $187.9 billion, but same-store sales growth of 2.6% fell short of what Wall Street anticipated.

The company also gave soft fiscal third-quarter guidance, even as it raised its full-year outlook.

"Walmart is not losing market share — contrary to what I heard after Target's earnings — in fact, the company continues to gain share across income tiers, driven by higher-income consumers seeking value," says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Wagner adds that the same-store sales miss was a result of "non-competitive factors" such as lower prescription drug prices, an ongoing shift toward e-commerce and delivery services, and "persistent cost pressures that prompted thousands of selective price cuts to aid budget-conscious shoppers."

The portfolio manager believes the blue chip stock's post-earnings pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Advance Auto Parts plummets after earnings

Fellow retailer Advance Auto Parts (AAP) also sold off sharply, falling 24.6% — its worst day since May 31, 2023 — after its turn on the earnings calendar. While the auto parts chain reported higher-than-expected earnings of $1.03 per share, revenue of $2 billion came up short of what analysts were calling for.

AAP also said same-store sales were down 0.5% from the year-ago period. "Total enterprise sales performance was impacted by the DIY channel as tighter household budgets constrained spending more than we anticipated, especially during the last four weeks of the quarter," explained Advanced Auto Parts CEO Shane O'Kelly in the earnings release.

Deere jumps to the top of the S&P 500 after earnings

Not all of the day's earnings reactions were negative. Deere (DE) jumped 6.9%, making it one of the best S&P 500 stocks today, after the farm equipment manufacturer reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $5.10 per share on revenue of $11 billion.

Wall Street anticipated earnings of $4.70 per share on revenue of $10.73 billion.

DE also raised the low end of its full-year net income forecast to $4.75 billion from $4.5 billion.

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Stocks snapped their three-day losing streak Wednesday after the Treasury Department stepped in to stabilize the bond market. A big rally in healthcare stocks also helped support the broader market, though upside was contained as several mega-cap tech stocks struggled.

The Treasury Department this morning said it will "at least double" the size of its buybacks for government bonds, from $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion. The increase will begin September 9 and run through November 4, and "reflects Treasury's desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors," according to a press release.

"Long-term Treasury yields had been under upward pressure amid uncertainty in interest rates, inflation, and the growing federal deficit," explains Tony Miano, global investment strategy analyst at Wealth & Investment Management at Wells Fargo.

The news sent the 10-year Treasury yield down 6.7 basis points to 4.639%, while the 30-year Treasury yield, which hit a 19-year high earlier this week, plummeted 10 basis points to 5.185%.

But while the Treasury Department's announcement provides short-term relief, Miana does not believe it changes the outlook for long-term yields. "The key drivers behind rising yields … remain in place," he says. "Until investors gain greater clarity on those issues, risks to long-term Treasury yields remain skewed to the upside."

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As for stocks, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 53,463, the broader S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 7,707, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% to 26,331.

Merck, Moderna stocks soar on positive cancer drug data

Merck (MRK) was easily the best Dow Jones stock today, surging 12.6% — its best day since 2009 — after a new mRNA skin cancer treatment jointly developed by the drugmaker and Moderna (MRNA) met its goals in a late-stage study when paired with MRK's Keytruda.

"This represents the first positive Phase 3 readout for an individualized neoantigen therapy (INT) and for an mRNA-based cancer therapy, as well as the first Phase 3 study to demonstrate a clinically meaningful improvement over KEYTRUDA alone, a standard-of-care immunotherapy, in the adjuvant setting for patients with resected melanoma," Merck stated in a news release.

MRNA shares surged 177% today, marking the large-cap stock's biggest one-day gain ever. It's also the first time since 2008 that an S&P 500 stock doubled in one day, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The news also lifted several vaccine makers, including Novovax (NVAX, +10.8%) and BioNTech (BNTX, +22.0%).

Target pops after earnings

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Target (TGT) jumped 4.3% after the retailer reported a beat-and-raise quarter.

TGT's fiscal second-quarter earnings received a $1.65 per-share boost from tariff refunds, while its comparable store sales came in at a better-than-expected 3.8%.

"The headline for Target was in the increased traffic [that] led to a strong jump in same store comps," says Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. "These are metrics that they have needed to meet to demonstrate that their turnaround is working and operations are getting better."

Mulberry adds that this is a "meaningfully positive quarter for Target," but the retailer now needs "to show consistency and [that] this was not a one-off success."

Marvell outperforms on Google news

While several mega-cap tech stocks, including Broadcom (AVGO, -4.6%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -3.7%), closed lower Wednesday, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 9.9% after the chip designer expanded a deal with Alphabet's (GOOGL, +0.2%) Google.

The agreement builds on a partnership between the two companies to build new custom artificial intelligence chips and gives Google the option to buy up to $12.2 billion in MRVL stock over time if it purchases large amounts of chips.

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Stocks closed lower for a third straight session Tuesday as market participants fretted about sky-high bond yields and the ongoing war in Iran. A sell-off in chip stocks also weighed on sentiment.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% at 53,343, the broader S&P 500 was 0.7% lower at 7,691, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.3% at 26,289.

Treasury yields also finished the day lower, but not before the 30-year yield hit a fresh 19-year intraday high.

Bond yields are rising even as the recent batch of soft inflation and jobs data lowers the odds of a September rate hike, says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

"Instead, the long end is responding to persistent inflation risks, heavy government borrowing and growing competition for capital — including debt issuance associated with the AI investment boom," she explains. "That creates an uncomfortable environment for equities because financial conditions can tighten even without the Fed raising rates."

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Higher oil prices are only adding to this inflation risk. Today, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $84.94 per barrel after President Donald Trump said there are currently no talks happening between the U.S. and Iran and no plans to start them.

Bond yields weigh on chip stocks

Tech stocks were a notable area of weakness on Tuesday, due in part to higher borrowing costs. Semiconductor stocks, in particular, took a beating, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) slumping 5.0% as fund heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA, -2.3%), Micron Technology (MU, -7.0%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -4.3%) sold off.

Chip stocks have rebounded in recent weeks, with SOXX rising nearly 11% for the month to date through Monday's close following a 21% drop in July.

Housing data disappoints

Higher borrowing costs are also weighing on the housing market, as evidenced by today's economic data.

According to the Census Bureau, housing starts fell 12.5% from June to July, to a lower-than-expected 1.24 million. This is down 13.5% year over year.

Separate data from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales fell 2.3% from June to July, hitting their lowest level since January.

"Housing disappointed in July," says Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. "The big headwind from high mortgage rates looks likely to persist into 2027."

Adams adds that buyers also have more options right now as folks who delayed selling their homes when mortgage rates started rising "are gradually accepting the new normal and listing their homes, providing buyers more options outside of new construction."

Home Depot takes aim at Amazon

Home Depot (HD, -0.1%) Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail called out "frozen housing conditions" in the home improvement retailer's earnings call this morning.

"While consumer uncertainty and housing affordability continue to pressure demand for larger home improvement projects, we remain focused on what we can control, our strategy of driving our core and culture, delivering a frictionless interconnected experience and winning the Pro," explained McPhail.

In its fiscal second quarter, Home Depot said its Pro segment outperformed DIY (do-it-yourself) and posted positive comparable store sales. Total comparable store sales for the company rose 1.7% in Q2 — the biggest increase since 2022 and higher than the 0.9% rise Wall Street anticipated. Earnings and revenue also beat expectations.

The comparable store sales number was impressive, says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, but his attention is more focused on the retailer's three-hour delivery announcement.

"Home Depot announced it's launching express delivery nationwide, promising orders within three hours or less," Wagner explains. "It's a direct shot at Amazon/Walmart-style speed competition, aimed at capturing the 'I need this part now to finish the project today' pro and DIY customer — a use case where Home Depot has a structural edge (2,300+ stores close to where people live) that pure e-commerce players can't easily match."

With big-ticket renovations still on hold due to higher mortgage rates, Wagner says this move echoes the broader theme of the quarter: "Home Depot is leaning hard into speed and convenience to win the smaller, more frequent project spend that's currently driving growth."

Klarna sinks 23% after earnings

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Klarna (KLAR) plunged 22.8% after the buy now, pay later firm reported earnings.

While KLAR beat on the top and bottom lines for its second quarter, it lowered its full-year outlook for gross merchandise volume (GMV) — a key metric for fintechs — due to "a more measured view of European volumes in the second half, particularly in Germany, our largest market by volume," the company said.

Klarna also said its chief financial officer and chief marketing officer will step down early next year.

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The main equity indexes were down after a low-volume late-summer trading session on Monday, as the uncertainty of war in the Middle East outweighed the certainty of solid earnings and revenue growth. Investors, traders and speculators are pulling back bets on rate hikes after cooler-than-forecast July consumer inflation and retail sales data. But the bond market continues to reflect longer-term concerns.

President Donald Trump urged Iran to "put up the white flag of surrender" in a pre-opening bell phone conversation with Fox News, during which he also threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of U.S. negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz.

"The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon," Trump posted on Truth Social at around the same time. "I have no time schedule," a multitasking Trump told Fox News. "I'm not in a hurry."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was higher by 2.5% to $84.45 per barrel. WTI declined to $67.04 intraday on July 2, just above its pre-war closing price of $67.02 on February 27 and vs a 52-week high of $119.48 on March 19.

The 2-year Treasury yield rose from 4.171% on Friday to 4.182% today, though the indicator of short-term Fed intentions has come down about 20 basis points from a 52-week high of 4.377% on July 24.

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The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.724% from 4.696% on Friday, and the 30-year Treasury yield was up from 5.266% to 5.310%, reaching a new 19-year high in the process.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5% to 53,459, the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.5% to 7,745, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.3% to 26,644.

How healthy are earnings

Most of the S&P 500 has already reported, and results from the earnings calendar are good. Indeed, as Ritholtz Wealth Management research associate Matt Cerminaro calculates, the overall year-over-year earnings growth rate is tracking to 32.2%.

In the aftermath of an unexpected decline in retail sales in July, reports from Home Depot (HD, -0.2%) tomorrow morning and Walmart (WMT, -0.8%) on Thursday morning will offer more color about the state of the consumer.

Still, as Cerminaro notes, 10 sectors are expected to report earnings growth, and eight are expected to post double-digit growth. And that bottom-line growth rate: "Talk about running it hot," Cerminaro says. "That number is on fire."

Indeed, all 11 stock market sectors defined by S&P Global are on track to grow revenue, with an overall annual rate for the S&P 500 of 15.4%, the strongest rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.

That's not all: "These companies are crushing estimates, raising guidance, and their stock prices are following suit. It's exactly what you want to see in a healthy bull market."

Why AMZN can hit $500

Amazon (AMZN, -0.5%) has had only a so-so 2026 so far. The e-commerce giant, cloud computing juggernaut and bellwether consumer discretionary stock posted a total return of 13.8% through Friday vs 14.5% for the S&P 500.

AMZN is trading around $260 today, up from around $230 at the end of 2025. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak, there's reason to believe the stock could hit $500 by the end of 2027, most notably on the opportunity for Amazon Web Services.

"We can debate the long-term margins of a GenAI enabled AWS," Nowak writes, "but if AMZN management's comments on AI tracking toward similar margins and returns as core cloud are in the right ballpark, this likely implies ~30% EBIT margins."

According to Nowak, that means about $1 trillion of AWS revenue and approximately $300 billion AWS EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) over the next eight to 10 years. "Layering in reasonable Retail assumptions, this would imply AMZN is set to generate approximately $500 billion of EBIT in 2034-2036 … and that company wide EBIT could CAGR at a 16-20% rate."

The analyst reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating, as well as his $335 12-month target price. Even from Nowak's "base case," there's about 29% of upside from here for AMZN.

What made SNDK pop again

Sandisk (SNDK, +8.9%) was the hottest of S&P 500 stocks on Monday in the aftermath of a warmly received "investor day" presentation last Thursday highlighted by management's long-term guidance, as well as an ambitious stock buyback plan.

As Bernstein analyst Mark Newman reports, management of the memory device and solution provider forecast mid- to high-teens volume growth and stable pricing through fiscal 2030. "The company also guided long-term gross margin around 80%," Newman writes, "which was better than expected."

Sandisk also announced that 100% of free cash flow (FCF) will be returned to shareholders and hinted that most, if not all, of this FCF will be used to buy back shares.

"Using even the most conservative of estimates for free cash flow," Newman says, "Sandisk can buy back 47% of shares outstanding in the next four years of free cash flow generation at current share prices."

Newman reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating and his $3,000 12-month target price for SNDK.

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Stocks finished the week on a negative note as market participants sifted through the latest batch of earnings and economic reports. And while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower for the week, the broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extended their weekly win streaks to three.

At today's close, the Dow was staring at a one-day decline of 0.2% at 53,732, the S&P 500 was off 0.2% at 7,785, and the Nasdaq was 0.3% lower at 26,729.

Despite Friday's quiet finish, the three main equity indexes are near record highs — and they remain "in something of a sweet spot for now," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

This week's soft inflation data has diminished the threat of a Federal Reserve rate hike, Hathorn explains, while earnings remain supportive.

B. Riley says to buy the dip on hot AMAT stock

Applied Materials (AMAT) was the biggest name on the earnings calendar, though the chip equipment maker shed 5.1% after reporting its fiscal third-quarter results late Thursday.

AMAT beat on the top and bottom lines and gave fiscal fourth-quarter guidance that beat the Street's estimates. But B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis says some investors may have been hoping for greater near-term gross margin upside.

Gross margin tells you how much revenue a company keeps after deducting costs required to make its products or services. AMAT said it expects fiscal Q4 gross margin to be flat on a quarter-to-quarter basis, at 50.4%.

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But Ellis believes today's post-earnings pullback represents a buying opportunity on a company poised for "high-visibility EPS expansion." He has a Buy rating on AMAT and a $700 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 40% on a stock that's already doubled for the year to date.

Next week, we'll start to hear from some of the country's biggest retailers, including Home Depot (HD, -0.8%), which reports on Tuesday. Walmart (WMT, -0.4%) takes its turn on the earnings stage Thursday morning.

Retail sales unexpectedly fall

Ahead of these key updates on consumer spending, data from the Census Bureau this morning showed that retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July. Economists expected a 0.1% increase.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index also fell short of estimates, with August's preliminary reading sinking to 51.0 from July's 55.2.

"A colossal double miss on retail sales and consumer sentiment is worrying investors, who fear that affordability pressures, dwindling savings and reduced hiring could mean the economy's engine is on its last legs," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The disappointing data follows "stronger tax refunds that were providing relief to personal wallets," he adds, and "with that source of fiscal stimulus behind us, market participants are rightfully concerned about the potential for further deterioration in consumer momentum."

Reddit will join the S&P 500 on Tuesday

Elsewhere on Wall Street today, Reddit (RDDT) popped 12.6% after S&P Global said the social media platform will join the S&P 500 ahead of the open this Tuesday, August 18.

RDDT will replace AvalonBay Communities (AVB, +0.1%), which is merging with fellow real estate investment trust (REIT) Equity Residential (EQR, 0.0%).

"Stocks tend to get a lift from inclusion in the S&P 500 because many trillions of passive dollars are held in products that track the index," explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows.

The Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO), the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the world, has $1.7 trillion in assets under management — and is just one of many funds that will now have to buy shares in RDDT.

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Stocks opened higher again Thursday thanks to another encouraging inflation update, but finished off their session highs as market participants parsed a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports. Still, the three main indexes finished in positive territory — one at a new record high — as chip stocks extended their recent rebound.

Ahead of the opening bell, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses pay suppliers for goods, was unchanged from June to July and was 4.7% higher year over year.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and was up 4.2% over the past 12 months.

The results were softer than economists expected and follow Wednesday's in-line July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

"The PPI data combined with what we know about CPI tells us that the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core personal consumption expenditures index, continues to run closer to 3% rather than 2%," says Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.

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This means the Federal Reserve still has an inflation problem, Varghese explains, "but the recent softness likely strengthens the case for doves on the committee who want to wait things out."

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability the central bank keeps the federal funds rate unchanged at its September meeting — up from 45% one week ago.

Cisco Systems sinks after earnings

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged its peers on Thursday, finishing up 0.1% at 53,839, as Cisco Systems (CSCO) slumped 8.4% — its worst day since February — after earnings.

The networking equipment specialist reported higher-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and gave upbeat fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance.

But UBS Global Research analyst David Vogt believes investor focus has shifted to Cisco's full-year forecast, "particularly the implied gross margin and the anticipated revenue deceleration from more than 20% growth in F1Q to the low double digits in H2:27, largely because of tougher comparisons."

Profit-taking could also be responsible for Cisco's sharp decline today. Heading into Thursday's session, the Dow Jones stock had surged 67% in the past six months.

Regardless of the reason, Vogt sees "any share-price weakness as an attractive buying opportunity."

Chip stocks send the S&P 500 to a new high

Elsewhere on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,798 — a new record closing high — and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8% to 26,803, as several chip stocks extended their recent rebound.

Sandisk (SNDK), for one, soared 13.7% today, and is now up 26% for the month to date. And Micron Technology (MU) jumped 4.2% to bring its August gain to nearly 16% so far. In July, SNDK plunged 31.6% and MU fell 16.4%.

Workday stock trading halted on takeover chatter

Workday (WDAY) was another tech stock that saw notable gains on Thursday, closing up 17.8% after intraday trading was temporarily halted on reports that Silver Lake is in talks to buy the human resources software company.

According to Reuters, the private equity firm's proposed buyout of Workday, which had a market value of $43.7 billion at Tuesday's close, could be among the biggest software buyouts ever.

WDAY shares fell 16.8% in 2025 and were down 18.4% for the year to date through the August 12 close.

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Stocks opened higher Wednesday thanks to a tame inflation report. A reinvigorated AI trade, courtesy of several well-received earnings reports, kept equities mostly higher into the close, with one of the three main indexes nearing a new record high.

The broader S&P 500 finished up 0.3% at 7,748 — just shy of last Friday's all-time closing high of 7,757.67 — and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.5% to 26,588. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average turned lower in the final minutes of the session, finishing down 0.04% at 53,770.

Things got off to a solid start this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% from June to July and was up 3.4% year over year.

This matched economists' expectations, while the 12-month rate rose at a slower pace than June's 3.5% increase.

Cooling energy prices had a positive impact on headline inflation, but even core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was mild. Core inflation rose 0.2% month over month and was 2.5% higher year over year. This compares to June's flat monthly reading 2.6% annual increase.

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"For the Federal Reserve, this is a helpful report rather than an all-clear," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "Inflation is moving in the right direction despite the earlier energy shock, while recent weakness in the labor market gives policymakers even less reason to consider another rate increase in September."

But inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, Hathorn adds, meaning the central bank "is unlikely to declare victory yet, especially after Kevin Warsh was adamant to point out his focus on making sure that high inflation does not become detrimental to the U.S. economy."

Still, the July CPI report lowered expectations that the Fed will hike rates next month. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will keep the federal funds rate unchanged next month — up from 52% one day ago.

Super Micro, CoreWeave stocks soar on earnings

Well-received earnings reports from several artificial intelligence companies also lifted sentiment on Wednesday.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI), for one, was the best S&P 500 stock today, surging 19% after the AI server, software and infrastructure company disclosed higher-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and gave strong fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance.

"We added several hundred enterprise and other customers in the past year, generated more than $60 billion in new orders, and booked record backlog entering fiscal 2027," said Super Micro Computer CEO Charles Liang in the press release.

CoreWeave (CRWV), meanwhile, jumped 19.3% after the AI cloud platform said second-quarter revenue more than doubled year over year — and that it expects more of the same in Q3.

"We believe CRWV is positioned to capture meaningful share of an AI cloud provider market growing at a server-melting pace, and we continue to see growing demand for CRWV's platform," says Mizuho Americas analyst Gregg Moskowitz.

However, the analyst cautions that the AI stock's risk/reward is "somewhat balanced given some ongoing uncertainty about the magnitude of CRWV's revenue upside over the near term."

Nebius pops 34% after earnings

While Wednesday's gains for Super Micro and CoreWeave stocks are certainly impressive, Nebius Group (NBIS) emerged as the day's hottest stock — popping 34.1% after the AI cloud infrastructure company said revenue surged more than fivefold in its second quarter, to $582.3 million.

Nebius' results show that "AI compute demand is insatiable and pricing is strengthening, not weakening," says Luke Lango, lead technology and cryptocurrency analyst at InvestorPlace.

Short sellers may have helped Nebius' red-hot rally, too. Nearly 25% of NBIS' stock is sold short, meaning speculators bet that its share price would drop. When a stock starts to soar, short sellers are forced to buy back the shares they sold short in order to contain their losses — and we may have seen some of that in today's price action.

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The main stock indexes drifted lower as crude oil prices and interest rates moved mostly sideways on Tuesday. Investors, traders and speculators are waiting for this week's incoming inflation data before they make any major moves. We know earnings season has been big for top- and bottom-line beats, as well as for AI hyperscaler budget growth. Less certain, still, is the situation in the Middle East and who controls the Strait of Hormuz.

"Corporate earnings are now so strong that the wild trading swings that occurred in July have been muted by the reality that record sales, earnings, positive guidance, and rising order backlogs are real," observes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates. According to FactSet, based on results for 88% of the S&P 500, 86% have reported a positive earnings surprise, and 76% have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Earnings growth so far is 50.4%, the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 (91.6%). Reported revenue growth to date is 15.0%, the best figure since the fourth quarter of 2021 (16.1%). All 11 sectors have reported year-over-year revenue growth; five have posted double-digit rates, with energy stocks, technology and communication services stocks leading the way.

At the same time, in the aftermath of a cooler-than-expected July jobs report, the primary factor driving price action this week is inflation. All eyes are on the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report before the opening bell on Wednesday.

Whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises its target range for the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the September Fed meeting is now almost literally a 50-50 proposition. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & Co. raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 49.9%.

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The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 1.6% on Tuesday to $83.45 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield inched back to 4.224% from 4.239%, the 10-year was down to 4.692% from 4.698%, and the 30-year ticked lower to 5.242% from 5.243%.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.6% to 26,445, the broad-based S&P 500 was lower by 0.3% to 7,728, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 0.3% to 53,791.

AI stocks are set to report

AI native cloud computing platform CoreWeave (CRWV, +2.4%) and AI infrastructure supplier Super Micro Computer (SMCI, +0.5%) make an appearance on the earnings calendar after today's close.

Wall Street expects CoreWeave, one of the hottest IPOs of 2025, to report triple-digit revenue growth, roughly in line with its most recent two quarters, and to update markets on a backlog that was $99 billion at last check. Analysts also expect Super Micro's top-line growth to exceed 100%, with new orders pre-reported at about $60 billion also on their collective mind.

Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA, -0.02%) has reasserted itself atop the global market cap rankings, as markets seem to approve of a new $500 billion plan to support AI infrastructure spending.

Intel (INTC, +0.2%) is also seeing a positive reaction to its upsized $20 billion offering of new shares, as the semiconductor stock seeks to expand its capacity. Intel reported expectations-beating results and raised full-year guidance on July 23.

Nvidia will unofficially bring down the curtain on the current reporting season when the biggest mover of the AI boom reveals its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, August 26.

CAH rises to and retreats from a new all-time high

Cardinal Health (CAH, +1.2%) was among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks early on Tuesday and traded up to a new all-time high intraday after the medical services and products provider reported mixed fourth-quarter results but shared strong guidance for fiscal 2027.

CAH missed Wall Street's earnings estimate and beat on revenue for the three months ending June 30. But management expects earnings per share of $12.40 to $12.60 next fiscal year, which represents year-over-year growth of 13% to 15%, and is well ahead of a FactSet-compiled consensus of $12.08 at the midpoint.

The company forecast 3% to 5% growth in revenue from its pharmaceuticals business, 2% to 4% growth for medical products and distribution. Guidance includes an uplift from the completed acquisition of Strive Medical and the announced deal to buy diabetes assets from AdaptHealth (AHCO, +8.2%).

CAH, a sleeper blue-chip stock, has generated a total return of more than 400% over the trailing five years vs less than 90% for the S&P 500. CAH is also outpacing the S&P 500 over the trailing 12 months (52.2% to 22.8%), as well as year to date (16.2% to 14.0%) through Monday.

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The main stock indexes were lower on Monday as oil prices and interest rates surged amid what looks more and more like a stalemate at the Strait of Hormuz. Investors, traders and speculators cast wary eyes on the Middle East ahead of the release of consumer and producer inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday.

A cooler-than-expected July jobs report lifted odds the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will stay on pause when it meets again in September. Price action shifted back in favor of a rate hike today, though, as it appeared any durable peace in the Middle East will leave Iran in control of traffic through the critical channel connecting Persian Gulf oil and gas production to global markets.

"The S&P 500's breakout from a nearly two-month trading range could get a test this week from inflation and geopolitics," E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin writes. "The jobs report may have eased some anxieties about a Fed rate hike next month, but those concerns could hit new highs without cooler-than-expected inflation numbers this week."

As Larkin notes, last week's rally was based on enthusiasm about a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "Without a deal on the table," he cautions, "markets may be less likely to respond positively to vague reports about progress in negotiations."

The main event on this week's economic calendar is the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will follow on Thursday.

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The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 4.9% on Monday to $82.05 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.241% vs 4.204% on Friday. The 10-year was up to 4.705% from 4.658%, the 30-year to 5.249% from 5.210%.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.3% to 26,605, the broad-based S&P 500 was lower by 0.06% to 7,753, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 0.1% to 53,975.

Jefferies says AAPL is a sell

Apple (AAPL, -1.5%) was one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks on Monday after a team of Jefferies analysts led by Edison Lee downgraded the iPhone maker from Hold to Underperform, the equivalent of a Sell rating.

"Our supply chain checks suggest that the all-glass iPhone has been canceled due to low yield," they write. "We view this as a major setback to efforts to bring in higher-priced iPhones amid soaring memory costs."

The analysts had forecast a September 2027 release of the all-glass iPhone. Higher costs and a lower average selling price (ASP) is a dynamic that's going to pressure Apple's margins and its earnings per share.

"More importantly," Lee & Co. write, "we believe the plan was to extend the all-glass features to future iPhone Pro and Pro Max models, further raising their ASP and margin."

Canceling all-glass iPhone models lowers the analysts' estimated compound annual growth rate for the iPhone ASP between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2031 from 9.0% to 6.8%.

Berkshire gets an earnings bounce

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +1.5%) rallied to a new 52-week high and to within a modest "up" day of a new all-time high after management reported an expectations-beating operating profit (PDF) for the second quarter.

CEO Greg Abel is deploying the cash pile that seemed to define the last several quarters of Warren Buffett's run as the top stock-picker for the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. Abel also increased the pace of stock buybacks during the quarter.

BRK.B established its all-time closing high of $539.30 on May 2, 2025, the day before Buffett announced his retirement as CEO at Berkshire's annual meeting. Buffett did say in mid-July that he led the effort to add Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, +0.9%) to the Berkshire portfolio.

UBS Managing Director Brian Meredith reiterated his Buy rating and raised his 12-month target price from $585 to $604, citing Berkshire's "strong balance sheet, upside to earnings from operational improvements, and deployment of excess cash into accretive acquisitions and/or share repurchases."

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Investors, traders and speculators pushed interest rates lower and stocks higher after softer-than-expected incoming data suggested there's little if any inflation pressure from the labor market right now. Risk-on momentum held up during a relatively quiet early August trading session, and two of the three main equity indexes made all-time weekly closing highs at its end.

Traders in the federal funds rate futures market took the odds of a rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) from 55% on Thursday to 45% following the release of the July jobs report before the opening bell on Friday.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 0.5% to $76.94 per barrel. WTI was down 9.1% this week, as interested parties continue to seek solutions to open the Strait of Hormuz acceptable to both Iran and the U.S.

The 2-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.195% today from 4.245% on Thursday. The market-based measure of short-term monetary policy intentions was down 10 basis points this week from 4.291% last Friday.

The 10-year was down to 4.641% from 4.670% yesterday and 4.745% last week, and the 30-year fell to 5.192% vs 5.212% and 5.275%. There was no immediate reaction at the longer end of the yield curve to President Donald Trump reviving his effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

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Markets will look forward to next week's economic calendar and the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July before the opening bell on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

At the closing bell on Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 1.3% for the day and 5,2% for the week to 26,690. The broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.6% and 3.6% to 7,757, an all-time high, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 0.3% and 3.0% to 54,036, an all-time weekly closing high.

SPCX didn't go down today

SpaceX (SPCX, +15.8%) has had a historically bad flight in the aftermath of the biggest IPO in stock market history, opening at $150 on June 12 and rising to $225.64 intraday on June 16, but falling to an all-time low of $104.83 on Monday.

Management reported expectations-beating second-quarter results after the closing bell on Tuesday, but SPCX was down 13.6% on Wednesday. The fact that Elon Musk's extraterrestrial venture posted a gain today is noteworthy because it marks the end of a four-week losing streak.

Indeed, SPCX was up 22.8% this week. According to JP Morgan analyst Arun Jain, retail investors are into SpaceX to the tune of approximately $3.6 billion since June 12.

The stock is going to be volatile as more supply of shares come to the market during what will be an extended series of lock-up expirations. We'll see whether there's demand to meet that supply over the coming months.

DOCS gets a big assist from AI

Officially, Doximity (DOCS, +32.6%) is a healthcare stock. That's just what S&P Global says, though. Today, it's trading on AI. And the trading is good.

DOCS closed at $20.66 on Thursday but traded as high as $64.99 in the pre-market on Friday and peaked at $39.99 during the regular session before closing at $27.40.

That's despite the fact that management missed Wall Street's second-quarter revenue and earnings forecast and came up short of analysts' consensus top-line estimate for the third quarter.

This move was all about the conference call and how Doximity appears to be differentiating from other software stocks. "We're the doctors' digital platform," CEO Jeff Tangney said, "and AI is just the next chapter in our growth."

Management noted that the Doximity Ask AI outperformed Anthropic’s Fable 5 and other models in a recent study of medical AI tools conducted by Stanford and Harvard. Tangney noted too that usage rates for Doximity’s tools have surged during the current quarter.

The CEO also emphasized that Doximity shows it's possible to generate strong software margins while investing in AI. "We’re leaning in as we see a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build the new AI age of medicine."

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Markets were mostly lower on Thursday as oil prices and interest rates rose amid uncertainty about the U.S. position on a deal between Oman and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While we're still seeing strong data from the earnings calendar, price action today reflected both high expectations, as well as concern for the future.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 3.6% to $77.93 per barrel. The Islamic Republic's semi-official Fars news agency reported that Iran wants to ban American and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz. Fars also said Iran is seeking compensation from the U.S. and Israel before they're permitted to transit the passage from the Persian Gulf to global markets.

The 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.243% today from 4.179% on Wednesday; the 10-year was up to 4.664% from 4.617% and the 30-year rose to 5.205% vs 5.173%.

Markets will get some big-picture perspective from the economic calendar when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July jobs report before the opening bell on Friday.

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At the closing bell on Thursday, the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.2% at 7,710, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 0.9% to 53,885, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 0.06% at 26,348.

Sandisk's guidance is soft

Sandisk (SNDK, -6.8%), which has been one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks since joining the index in November, recovered from its intraday lows. But the flash storage specialist still suffered another steep loss because it fell short of great expectations.

Management reported exponential year-over-year growth at the top and bottom lines for its fiscal fourth quarter, and the tech stock topped Wall Street's forecast for revenue and earnings per share.

But Sandisk guided to fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, and analysts wanted to see $10.82 billion. Margin guidance of 83% to 85% was also disappointing relative to a fourth-quarter figure of 84.6%.

Still, the bigger picture for earnings is bright, as Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates notes, with 71% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting so far this season.

"Revenues are running 3.8% higher than analyst consensus estimates, while earnings are coming in at 7.3% higher than analyst consensus estimates," Navellier says. Seventy-seven percent have reported revenue surprises, and 83% have reported earnings surprises.

"Interestingly," Navellier concludes, "this is also the twelfth quarter in a row where earnings are exceeding sales growth, which is indicative of profit margin expansion."

Why DAVE was so down today

Dave (DAVE, -15.1%) is a digital banking platform, and as recently as January it looked more like a small-cap stock than a mid-cap stock.

A year-to-date gain of more than 94% through Wednesday pushed it well into the higher market cap neighborhood. The reaction to Dave's second-quarter earnings report is bringing it back down.

Dave, which describes itself as "one of the nation's leading neobanks," reported earnings of $4.12 per share, year-over-year growth of 48.2%. And revenue was up 29.7% to $170.8 million.

It's those year-over-year growth figures: They're slowing down. A year ago, Dave reported EPS growth of 263%. Then it was 196%, 93% and 64%.

The trajectory for revenue growth is a little like Hemingway's line from "The Sun Also Rises." It went from 64% a year ago to 63% to 62% to 47% when management reported first-quarter results.

Thirty percent annual revenue growth doesn't exactly suggest "bankruptcy." But there is a "gradually, then suddenly" feel to its failure to keep up with the law of big numbers.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 gapped up to new all-time highs at the opening bell on Wednesday, lifted by relative quiet in the Middle East and solid data from the earnings calendar. Heavy exposure to hot AI-related names weighed on the Nasdaq Composite, as markets remain concerned about Big Tech's spending plans.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.5% to 54,349, another new record closing high. But the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.2% to 7,723 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8% to 26,363.

All three remain near their respective peaks despite "no shortage of crosscurrents" to navigate, as LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist observes. Turnquist cites the war in the Middle East and higher oil prices, as well as rising interest rates and shifting expectations about how the Federal Reserve will respond to inflation under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 0.9% to $75.10 per barrel amid another pause in hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked lower to 4.179% from 4.194% on Tuesday, while the 10-year was at 4.615% vs 4.627% and the 30-year dipped to 5.171% from 5.189%.

Markets are also looking forward to the release of the July jobs report before the opening bell on Friday, the main event on this week's economic calendar.

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Turnquist notes that semiconductor stocks traded down more than 20%, meeting the technical definition of a bear market while investors, traders and speculators "demanded evidence that rising capital expenditures were translating into meaningful returns" for the AI trade.

"Despite these challenges," he says, "the S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient," with capital rotating out of communication services stocks, for example, and into healthcare stocks. As Turnquist concludes, "Fundamental conditions have also remained constructive, supported by an economy that continues to grow and corporate earnings."

Indeed: Amgen (AMGN, +4.6%) was the best-performing Dow Jones stocks on Wednesday after management of the biotechnology giant reported expectations-beating second-quarter results and raised full-year guidance.

SpaceX had a lot of gravity

SpaceX (SPCX, -13.6%), on the other hand, cratered in response to its first earnings report as a publicly traded company. Management beat expectations, but not by enough after the biggest IPO in stock market history.

Management said it will expand Starlink Mobile into a full-fledged wireless carrier to compete with telecoms such as AT&T (T, -1.3%), T-Mobile USA (TMUS, -2.1%) and Verizon Communications (VZ, -0.9%).

But Elon Musk downplayed talk of selling China-based electric vehicle operations so Tesla (TSLA, -1.8%) can merge with SpaceX and combine their AI operations.

Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -7.0%) sold off hard on word from SpaceX that it will work only with Nvidia (NVDA, +3.4%) to supply the chips and related infrastructure it requires to achieve its extraterrestrial ambitions.

Walt Disney tells another good story

Walt Disney (DIS, +3.7%) beat Wall Street expectations for its fiscal third-quarter bottom line, reporting earnings of $2.05 per share vs a forecast of $1.86. Top-line growth of 6.8% to $25.2 billion fell just short of analysts' estimate of $25.4 billion.

But management reiterated its guidance for double-digit EPS growth for the current fiscal year, as well as for fiscal 2027, and a new leader remains optimistic about the company's near-term trajectory.

"Decades of IP investment have built deep fan connections that translateinto strong financial results," CEO Josh D'Amaro (PDF) said, citing accelerating global guests growth at its theme parks, the success of "Toy Story 5" at the box office and ESPN viewership gains. "Together, our results show a unique ability to engage consumers at scale, both digitally and physically, even amid macro uncertainty."

The consumer discretionary stock enjoyed a similar bounce in May following D'Amaro's first reported quarter as CEO; he replaced Bob Iger in March. But it was down more than 13% year to date through Tuesday while the S&P 500 was up almost 14%. Its trailing-12-month, five- and 10-year comparisons are similarly unfavorable.

In fact, despite the high quality of its intellectual property, DIS has been a buy-and-hold bust, as Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows writes.

"While it's true that you can manipulate historical returns by fussing with their beginning and end points," Burrows explained earlier this year, "Disney's record vs the broader market over pretty much any standardized period you care to measure is terrible." For the past 20 years specifically, DIS' average annualized return has trailed the S&P 500 by more than 4 percentage points.

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It was another record-setting session for stocks Tuesday as Wall Street cheered the latest round of earnings reports. A big bounce for chip stocks and hope on the geopolitical front also fueled the day's upside.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.7% at 54,085 and the broader S&P 500 was 1.8% higher at 7,736 — new record closes — while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 2.6% to 26,584.

"Optimism about an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with upbeat corporate earnings, has stocks soaring to fresh records," explains José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Torres cites comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC that the U.S. and Iran could reach a deal to open the strait as soon as today.

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This sent front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 5.7% to $75.77 per barrel, while yields on 2-year (-6.2 basis points to 4.194%), 10-year (-7.3 basis points to 4.612%) and 30-year (-5.9 basis points to 5.17%) Treasuries also declined.

Bessent's remarks drove "crude prices and interest rates south as market participants adjust their oil supply outlooks upward while reducing inflation expectations and Fed rate-hike probabilities, reflecting a greater likelihood of softening cost pressures from restored traffic through the passage," says Torres.

Palantir stock soars after "otherworldly" earnings

Earnings were also a hot topic on Tuesday, with several stocks soaring in the wake of their results.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR), for one, climbed 29.5% — easily making it the day's best S&P 500 stock — after the data analytics platform said second-quarter revenue surged 93% year over year to $1.94 billion, while earnings more than doubled to 41 cents per share.

"This quarter was otherworldly," said Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp. "Demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed."

The company also gave higher-than-expected third-quarter guidance and raised its full-year forecast.

"We view the strengthening Palantir results as a reflection of a successful AI strategy that focuses on providing the right infrastructure to maximize its customers' results," says BofA Securities analyst Mariana Perez Mora. "PLTR's sovereign AI approach levers on decades of experience working on national security and highly regulated missions to create the right control layer."

The analyst has a Buy rating and $255 price target on PLTR, almost 60% above where the AI stock is trading.

The earnings calendar stays busy, too, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) set to report after tonight's close. The chipmaker joined its peers in a broad rally today, climbing 7.0%.

Bezos unloads $4.1 billion in Amazon shares

One blue chip stock that sat out the day's surge was Amazon (AMZN), which fell 2.3% on news that founder and former CEO Jeff Bezos is selling 15 million shares worth roughly $4.1 billion.

A Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing disclosed the sale, originally scheduled on November 14, 2025, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan that prevents insider trading.

Bezos' timing is impeccable, though. Amazon shares jumped more than 15% last Friday on strong earnings and hit a record high on Monday. They're also up 20% for the year to date.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate Monday after President Donald Trump on Sunday canceled planned attacks against Iran. Tumbling oil prices and Treasury yields also boosted sentiment at the start of the month, with one of the main benchmarks closing at a new record high.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said that the United States was "locked and loaded," but he decided to "cancel the attack" against Iran after "perimeters of a deal" had been agreed to.

Trump added that the agreement will include the "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat."

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures plunged more than 6% to $79.49 per barrel in response, while yields on the 2-year (-4.1 basis points to 4.25%), 10-year (-5.7 basis points to 4.686%) and 30-year (-4.2 basis points to 5.233%) Treasuries tumbled.

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As for equities, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1.3% to 53,178 — a new record closing high — the broader S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,600, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.1% to 25,913.

The stock market got "an early boost from falling oil," says Chris Larkin, managing director of Trading and Investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, "but the on-again, off-again nature of U.S-Iran diplomacy could mean earnings and jobs data will have to do the heavy lifting for the bulls this week."

SpaceX highlights busy earnings calendar

Corporate earnings have been impressive so far. "Despite mixed reactions to mega-cap Tech results, underlying fundamentals remain strong," write BofA Securities strategists Savita Subramanian and Victoria Roloff. "The earnings-per-share beat rate is at its highest level since 2021, with 77% of companies exceeding consensus expectations, well above the 66% post-week 3 average."

This week's earnings calendar is a busy one, too. SpaceX (SPCX, +5.7%) is arguably the most noteworthy name reporting, with Elon Musk's mega-cap space company making its first appearance on the earnings stage as a publicly traded company.

"Revenues, EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization], Starlink subs, ARPU, AI pricing, Cursor ARR [annual recurring revenue], fiscal year capex guide… all of these matter," says Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

But the bigger issue for investors, says the analyst, is that SPCX stock is currently trading 50% below its all-time high and 15% below its initial public offering (IPO) price.

Wall Street will also be watching SpaceX on Thursday, when the first of the company's lock-up period expires. This is when insiders and early investors will be allowed to sell their shares, which could create volatility in the stock.

"SpaceX used an unusually complex scheme with nine main unlock points instead of one traditional 180-day expiry," explains Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned, Ph.D. "The design staggers insider selling over roughly the first six months post-IPO, with longer lockups for some institutions and for Elon Musk personally into mid-2027."

And while Harned admits that this week's lock-up expiry creates an overhang for the tech stock, he believes "the company's messaging in its Q2 report will be important," particularly updates on "the path to full reusable Starship launches."

Boeing gets double upgraded

Boeing (BA) released its second-quarter results last week and shares rose nearly 5% in reaction to a top-line beat and positive free cash flow.

The Dow Jones stock is up again to start this week, gaining 8.0% on Monday, after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) cleared the aircraft manufacturer's 737 Max 7 for passenger flights after years of delays.

The blue chip stock got another boost after BNP Paribas analyst Matthew Akers double-upgraded BA to Buy from Sell. He also raised his price target to $300 from $230, representing implied upside of 28% to current levels.

"The post-COVID era of uncertainty for (Boeing) is over," says Akers. "In the next year, MAX and 777X certifications will drive inventory liquidation and operational stability."

The analyst believes this will lift free cash flow to $7 billion by 2027, roughly $1 billion more than Wall Street expects.

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Stocks were volatile Friday as market participants weighed mixed reactions to a pair of Big Tech earnings reports and surging Treasury yields. The main equity indexes finished the session higher, though, and snapped their weekly losing streaks.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 52,485, the broader S&P 500 was 0.7% higher at 7,489, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.0% to 25,373.

But stocks' gains were contained as borrowing costs continued to climb. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 4.1 basis points to 4.27%, while yields on the 10-year Treasury (+4.9 basis points to 4.712%) and 30-year bond (+4.6 basis points to 5.253%) hit their highest levels since 2007.

Today's rise in Treasury yields came after Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, who voted for a quarter-point rate hike at the July Fed meeting, said in a statement that "now is the time" for the central bank to act to bring inflation down. "The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down."

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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who also dissented in this week's Fed decision to hold interest rates steady in favor of a quarter-percentage-point hike, issued his own statement, saying that he'd prefer to raise rates now than to allow high inflation to become entrenched.

"The fixed-income complex is moving further away from the central bank's current midpoint of 3.63% as bond vigilantes protest [Fed] Chair Kevin Warsh's overly patient posture and dial up inflation expectations, amid a monetary policy institution that isn't following through on its hawkish rhetoric at this juncture," explains José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Amazon, Apple chart different paths after earnings

In single-stock news, Wall Street was once again tuned into earnings from a pair of Magnificent 7 stocks. Amazon (AMZN) emerged as a clear winner on Friday, surging 15.3% after the e-commerce and cloud giant reported a second-quarter beat on strong revenue growth in its cloud segment.

Amazon also gave soft third-quarter revenue guidance due to Prime Day occurring in June this year, and lifted its full-year capital expenditures budget to $220 billion from $200 billion on higher costs for memory chips.

Bill Birmingham, managing director at REX Financial, REX Shares' parent company, says Amazon's quarter was "exceptional," with evidence that the company's custom silicon and artificial intelligence (AI) commercialization are gaining traction noteworthy.

And while it's worth keeping an eye on the lighter revenue guidance and higher spending levels, Birmingham said the print "provides real evidence that AI capex is being monetized."

Apple (AAPL), on the other hand, slumped 7.4%, as weak current-quarter revenue guidance overshadowed higher-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue.

"We paid more per memory in the March quarter than the December quarter," said Tim Cook on the earnings call, his last as CEO of Apple. "And then as I alluded to last quarter, we expected to pay significantly more in the June quarter than the March quarter, and that is what happened. It was partially offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory."

Cook added that the company expects to pay even more for memory costs in its September quarter.

Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher reiterated his Buy rating and $375 price target on Apple after earnings, representing implied upside of more than 20% to current levels.

"As we see it, Apple's perpetually refreshed roster of highly desirable products provides a unique advantage over industry rivals," says Kelleher. And dips should be bought on this high-quality stock to "establish or dollar-average into positions in AAPL," he adds.

Roblox has its worst day ever after earnings

While Apple was the worst Dow Jones stock today, Roblox (RBLX) was one of the worst stocks period. Shares plunged 26.9% — their biggest one-day decline ever — after the video-game company reported a second-quarter bookings miss and forecast lower-than-expected third-quarter bookings.

Roblox also said it expects Q3 revenue to come in well below what Wall Street is expecting and did not offer a full-year forecast.

This doesn't seem to worry Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang, who maintained an Outperform (Buy) rating on the communication services stock. "Retention remains stable and content is diversifying," he says, though cautioning that it's still uncertain as to when monetization will catch up to retention.

Yang isn't the only one holding out hope for RBLX. Of the 34 analysts covering Roblox who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 19 say it's a Buy, 13 have it at Hold and two rate it a Sell. This works out to a consensus Buy recommendation.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate Thursday and stayed higher through the close as well-received earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) overshadowed a disappointing reaction to Meta Platforms' (META) quarterly results. Market participants also kept an eye on a busy economic calendar and surging long-term Treasury yields, though these did little to shift today's price action.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.2% at 52,208, the broader S&P 500 was 1.7% higher at 7,437, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had surged 2.8% to 25,122.

And in the bond market, long-term yields continued to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing up 5.5 basis points at 4.677% and the 30-year yield jumping 7.8 basis points to 5.221%, both near their highest levels since 2007.

This comes as rising bond yields sank stocks on Wednesday in reaction to the Federal Reserve's split decision to keep interest rates steady, even as inflation sits well above the central bank's 2% target.

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"The reluctance to lift generated short-term credibility damage, driving a dramatic steepening across the Treasury curve as bond vigilantes stood up and said, 'wait a minute,' resulting in purchases at the shorter tenors alongside selling at the long end," explains José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

June PCE eases on falling energy prices, GDP slows

Markets received another inflation update today with the release of June's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), headline inflation was down 0.1% month over month and up 3.7% year over year.

This was much better than May's monthly and annual increases of 0.4% and 4.1%, respectively, and came as energy prices tumbled roughly 20% in June. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also eased in June, rising 0.1% month over month and 3.3% year over year.

In a separate release, the BEA said that second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.5% higher in Q2 — slower than Q1's 2.1% increase. The headline number isn't as worrying as it seems, though, as surging imports were the main drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The data also showed that consumer spending and investments were strong.

"Despite moderating inflation, strong domestic activity across consumption and business investment will keep the Fed diligent about the risks overheating could have on the inflation trajectory," says Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "We continue to expect the Fed to be patient as it awaits more inflation data."

Microsoft gains $500 billion in value after earnings

In addition to a busy day of economic reports, Wall Street had a lengthy earnings calendar to sift through. Microsoft's earnings were among the most noteworthy.

The tech giant jumped 15.5%, its biggest one-day gain since 2008. It also added $450 billion in market value — the most ever for a company in one day, beating out Nvidia (NVDA, +2.7%), which gained $440 billion in market cap on April 9, 2025, according to The Wall Street Journal.

For its fiscal fourth quarter, Microsoft reported higher-than-expected earnings and revenue, with its results boosted by a 43% year-over-year revenue growth in its Azure cloud segment.

And while MSFT said it expects fiscal 2027 capital expenditures to be up year over year, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood also said she believes the company will remain free cash flow positive.

"Microsoft reported a very strong quarter and it struck the tone markets are looking to hear as the key drivers of growth came from the cloud and AI divisions," says Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. And the blue chip stock's reaction indicates "that investors are finally excited about Microsoft again."

Meta stock posts its longest losing streak on record

Fellow Magnificent 7 stock Meta Platforms, on the other hand, slumped 8.0% after its results. META has now fallen for 11 days straight, its longest losing streak on record. Shares are down 20.9% over that time.

While the Facebook parent reported a second-quarter revenue beat, it fell short on the bottom line and gave lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue guidance.

And, as Meta ramps up spending on artificial intelligence initiatives, the company also said its free cash flow plunged 91% year over year to $784 million and it raised the low end of its full-year capital expenditures outlook.

"The report's defining narrative is the aggressive cost absorption required to stay at the leading edge of generative AI," says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. "It's just not the greatest story to increase the bottom end of your capex, basically increasing the midpoint, and not showing much positive guidance on revenue expectations."

Big Tech earnings will continue after Thursday's close, with Amazon (AMZN, +3.9%) and Apple (AAPL, -1.4%) set to report.

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Oil prices surged and the stock market's "fear gauge" spiked as the war between the U.S. and Iran escalated again on Wednesday. Violence in the Middle East continues to impede traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while even exponential growth for AI-related companies is letting down investors, traders and speculators.

"We'll be hitting them hard," President Donald Trump told Fox News after Iran struck a U.S. base in Jordan. "They're going to get a beating." The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 7.2% at $84.94 per barrel.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose from 18.21 on Tuesday to as high as 20.34 on Wednesday, breaching its "normal" range of 12 to 20 and settling at 20.05.

The July Fed meeting ended where investors, traders and speculators thought it would: with interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight time but central bankers worried about inflation and the energy shock.

The target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50% to 3.75%. But three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented from the decision because they favored raising it by 25 basis points.

"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace," reads a repeated sentence in a subtly updated but still brief FOMC policy statement, "despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East."

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As Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said during his press conference, "We'll be watching inflation data over the period ahead," but he also said the central bank wouldn't rely exclusively on any one piece of it.

Acknowledging a steep rise in market-based rates over the last 42 days, the Fed chair noted shocks the economy seems to be absorbing relatively well so far.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 1.7% to 24,442, the broad-based S&P 500 was down 1.5% to 7,316, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 2.2% to 51,594.

SKHY leads chip stocks lower again

The earnings calendar is the market's main focus following an overnight preview from South Korea-based SK Hynix (SKHY, -2.6%). The Nvidia (NVDA, -3.6%) supplier reported 257% top-line growth, as well as a 557% rise for operating profit and a 1,242% earnings increase.

But SK Hynix stock was down 9.6% on its local exchange because it failed to meet high expectations, and trading was halted on South Korea's KOSPI Index to stem a broader sell-off. The KOSPI closed lower by 6%.

Losses were similar for Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -5.5%), Broadcom (AVGO, -2.8%) and ASML (ASML, -2.0%), with Micron Technology (MU, -9.9%) suffering like fellow memory stock SKHY.

Up now are Meta Platforms (META, -1.3%) and Microsoft (MSFT, -0.7%), with Apple (AAPL, -0.6%) and Amazon (AMZN, -1.8%) to follow on Thursday.

CAT dogged by data center debate

Caterpillar (CAT, -6.9%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Wednesday after Baird analyst Mircea Dobre cut his rating on the heavy equipment maker from Buy to Hold and reduced his 12-month target price from $1,200 to $900.

Dobre cited rising regulatory opposition to AI data centers due to environmental strains and power grid pressures.

"The ground is shifting in many ways; the recent New York State moratorium on data center construction is the highest-profile example of a bigger (and growing) trend towards regulatory action at state and local level targeting data centers," the analyst observes. "This raises costs, adds new development approval hurdles, limits site availability, and likely slows future investment."

Caterpillar is scheduled to report second-quarter results before the opening bell next Tuesday, August 4. Wall Street expects to see earnings of $6.20 per share (+31.4% year over year) on revenue of $19.17 billion (+15.7% YoY).

CAT hit new all-time intraday and closing highs on June 30. The industrial stock is down 20.9% since then, shedding more than $100 billion in market cap.

What the 2-year Treasury yield says about a rate hike

According to LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, markets have adjusted to a "higher-for-longer" environment, with the 2-year Treasury yield up about 90 basis points from its February 27 low of 3.375% and outside the target range for the federal funds rate since April.

Turnquist describes eight periods since the 1980s during which the 2-year yield was above that range while policy was on hold, defined as at least three months without a change in the fed funds rate, along with a "crossover period" of at least 20 consecutive trading days.

"As of July 28, 2-year yields have remained above the fed funds target rate for 68 trading days," Turnquist notes, "with the spread reaching a maximum of 0.60% so far."

The median maximum spread for the comparison period was 0.97%. And Turnquist concedes the limited nature of the historical data set means it can't be used to either confirm or rule out a rate hike.

Still, he concludes, "The comparison suggests the current crossover is less mature than the three completed historical signals that ultimately preceded tighter monetary policy."

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Stocks were choppy early on Tuesday, but falling oil prices and a round of well-received corporate earnings helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 climb higher into the close. The Nasdaq Composite, however, couldn't sidestep an extended slump in chip stocks.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.2% lower at 24,876, pressured by weakness in semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which counts Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -8.2%) and Micron Technology (MU, -8.9%) among its biggest holdings, fell 4.8% and is now down 23% for the month to date.

The continued sell-off is being "driven by concerns about capital return prospects, valuations, circular financing dynamics and Chinese competition," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

But the broader S&P 500 (+0.2% at 7,428) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0% to 52,747) advanced thanks in part to falling oil prices. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4% to settle at $79.26 per barrel.

Strong earnings for several blue chip stocks also helped buoy the benchmarks. Coca-Cola (KO), for one, jumped 5.0% after the soft drink maker beat second-quarter estimates and raised its full-year guidance.

The company credited the FIFA World Cup as one catalyst behind its strong results, seeing Trademark Coca-Cola volume growth of 5% in Q2, its best volume growth since the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Boeing (BA) was another post-earnings winner, rising 4.8% as the aerospace giant's Q2 revenue came in higher than expected, which offset a wider-than-anticipated per-share loss.

Sherwin-Williams has its best day since 2022 after earnings

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) emerged as the best Dow Jones stock today, surging 8.3% — its best day since April 26, 2022 — after the paint maker reported stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter results.

"Sales improvement was driven by continued growth investments, new account wins and increased share of wallet," said Sherwin-Williams CEO Heidi Petz. "We also implemented pricing actions to offset raw material inflation that pressured our gross margin in the quarter."

In mid-June, Argus Research analyst Alexandra Yates said SHW is "uniquely positioned to benefit from significantly higher demand trends and margin expansion in the long term, this due to its dominant market position." Yates added that she views the materials stock as a "core long-term holding."

Corning suffers its biggest one-day drop in six years

Not all earnings reports were well received. Corning (GLW) plunged 12.1%, its biggest one-day drop since March 16, 2020, after the Gorilla Glass maker's disappointing third-quarter revenue forecast overshadowed a second-quarter beat.

Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini says the softer-than-expected revenue guidance is due primarily to "weakness outside Optical Communications, particularly within the Solar segment."

And he maintained a Positive (Buy) rating on the tech stock, saying it "remains well positioned to benefit from growing AI cluster sizes and increasing and width requirements, while also enabling alternative manufacturing approaches for fiber array units (FAUs), which we believe are among the most critical components in the commercialization of optical CPO (transceiver) architectures."

These transceiver architectures have a variety of use cases, including in data centers, AI chip connections and high-performance computing.

Buckle up

There are plenty more events this week that could spark market volatility. On the economic front, Wall Street is waiting for tomorrow afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.

While it's unlikely the central bank will raise the federal funds rate this time around, rate hike odds have been rising. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 32% chance the Fed will increase rates tomorrow, up from 26% one week ago.

We're reporting live on the July Fed meeting. Follow along with Kiplinger for all the news and updates.

And on the earnings calendar, Wednesday's after-the-close announcements from Meta Platforms (META, -0.08%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +1.1%) will likely draw a crowd. Apple (AAPL, +0.9%) and Amazon (AMZN, -0.2%) will report on Thursday.

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Crude oil prices sank and interest rates were lower Monday on renewed hope for peace in the Middle East. But semiconductor stocks sold off as markets continue to wonder when escalating hyperscaler capex budgets will generate returns on investment.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 8.1% to $82.04 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by nine basis points to 4.322%.

Both are still much higher than they were before the war between the U.S. and Iran started on February 28. But the immediate reaction to the suspension of attacks in the U.S.-Iran war "implies further equity upside when the conflict is fully over," according to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

"The Fed decision on making a change in the fed funds rate will be the big event of the week," Navellier observes about the economic calendar.

The July Fed meeting starts tomorrow and ends Wednesday. Price action in the fed funds futures market shows a 64% probability the central bank keeps its primary benchmark where it is this week. But, according to CME FedWatch, odds of a rate hike in September are now up to 55.5%.

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It's also a big week for the earnings calendar, as Navellier notes: "By the end of the week, more than a third of S&P companies will have reported."

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% to 52,209, and the broad-based S&P 500 had inched up 0.02% to 7,413 But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% to 24,932.

AAPL > NVDA

Nvidia (NVDA, -5.0%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock during a rough session for chipmakers. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -2.1%) reflected broadening concern about the sustainability of the AI revolution as its leader makes new and bigger deals.

Bloomberg reported that Nvidia is discussing one deal worth as much as $250 billion to help its customer OpenAI lease computing power from a U.S. data center and another to finance $350 billion of OpenAI's chip purchases for the project.

On Friday, Nvidia announced a $500 billion deal with South Korea-based chipmaker SK Hynix (SKHY, -7.5%) that illustrates what skeptics describe as "circular" AI deals supporting the infrastructure build-out.

Apple (AAPL, +1.2%), meanwhile, overtook NVDA to become the biggest company in the world in terms of market cap. The iPhone maker will carry a year-to-date return of about 23% into its fiscal third-quarter earnings announcement after the closing bell on Thursday.

Meanwhile, amid rising anxiety about their capex plans, Meta Platforms (META, -0.2%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +1.9%) will report after the closing bell on Wednesday. Amazon (AMZN, -0.3%) joins AAPL in the spotlight on Thursday.

As Navellier writes, these four Magnificent 7 stocks account for 17% of the weight of the S&P 500 "and will be very telling of the continued confidence in the AI theme." Nvidia will report fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, August 26.

QBTS + T

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS, +8.9%) is one of the best ways to invest in quantum computing right now because it's making deals with classic blue-chip companies such as AT&T (T, +1.2%).

On Monday, D-Wave Quantum announced the expansion of a partnership teased in January when AT&T executives appeared at the Qubits 2026 conference. The telecommunications giant will now use D-Wave's tech across its network operations, most notably outage detection and traffic management.

"AT&T's initial focus is on layering D-Wave's annealing quantum computing technology into the tools that are already powering AT&T's agentic AI solutions," D-Wave said in its press release.

Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for QBTS from $29 to $35 following management's first "analyst day" event in June, citing its leadership in annealing QC.

Rakesh says D-Wave's updated financial model shows long-term gross margins for quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) at 65% to 75%, professional services at 40% to 50% and computing systems at 75% to 90%.

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Stocks rallied off their mid-morning lows on Friday on reports that Pakistan is attempting to restart peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. But worries about the impact of rising oil prices and new tariffs on inflation, as well as another round of poorly received tech earnings, had main indexes reversing course heading into the weekend.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 51,947 and the broader S&P 500 was 0.05% higher at 7,411. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, on the other hand, was 0.6% lower at 24,975. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched back-to-back weekly losses, while the Dow extended its weekly losing streak to three.

Retreating oil prices somewhat eased inflation worries ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. But while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 3% to $89.31 per barrel, they're still up more than 28% for the month.

And the Trump administration's newly announced tariffs, which impose 10% to 25% tariffs on a variety of goods from major trading partners, kept price concerns at the forefront.

"The administration has found a replacement for the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February," says Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.

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While the effective tariff rate "will still be below the worst-case scenario feared after Liberation Day," he explains, the tariffs "add another layer of inflationary pressure, raising companies' costs for raw materials and intermediate goods that have yet to be fully passed on to consumers."

The Fed will conclude its July policy meeting next Wednesday afternoon. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 64% chance the central bank will hold interest rates steady — down from 87% one week ago.

Intel swings lower after earnings, DLR has its best day since 2020

Market participants also sifted through a busy earnings calendar. Intel (INTC) was one of the most noteworthy reports. The chipmaker reported its highest year-over-year revenue growth in 15 years — up 25% from Q2 2025 to $16.1 billion — sending its shares higher at Friday's open.

But Intel closed down 7.9% on the day. "Even earnings reports that appear to be positive are often not enough in the current environment," write Argus Research analysts. And for INTC, in particular, Argus is concerned that key end markets, such as servers and PCs, "are at risk from soaring component costs, particularly for memory."

Digital Realty (DLR), meanwhile, surged 11% after its beat-and-raise quarter, its best day since March 13, 2020.

Results from the real estate investment trust (REIT), which owns, operates and invests in data centers, underscored "accelerating AI-driven demand, market share gains, and the strength of its global platform," says Stifel analyst Erik Rasmussen.

And given the company's strong execution, sufficient liquidity and increasing AI-related deployments, Rasmussen believes "Digital Realty remains well positioned to sustain double-digit earnings growth."

He has a Buy rating on the REIT and a $235 price target, representing implied upside of 17% to current levels.

Bank of America hikes its dividend by 14%

In non-earnings news, Bank of America (BAC) jumped 1.3% after the financial giant announced a 14% dividend hike.

"The increase in our dividend reflects the strength of our earnings, the power of our franchise and our confidence in Bank of America’s ability to drive long-term growth and create value for shareholders," said CEO Brian Moynihan in the press release.

This is welcome news for income investors who have watched Bank of America raise its payout for 13 years straight. And the most well-known person in that group is Warren Buffett, who first added BAC to the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio in 2017.

While Berkshire has been slowly reducing its exposure to the bank stock in recent quarters, it was still the third-largest equity holding at the end of Q1. And BAC has been an income-generating machine for Berkshire over the years, paying the holding company $625 million in cash dividends in 2025 alone.

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Stocks sold off Thursday as rising bond yields and surging oil prices spooked market participants. Poorly received earnings reports from a pair of Magnificent 7 stocks didn't help matters, with the main indexes now on track for another week of losses.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 1.0% at 51,711, the broader S&P 500 was 1.2% lower at 7,408, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2.2% at 25,137.

Rising bond yields were one headwind for stocks today. The yield on the 2-year Treasury jumped 4.9 basis points to 4.351% — its highest level since February 2025. And the 10-year Treasury yield spiked 4.2 basis points to an 18-month high of 4.699%.

The surge in Treasury yields comes as oil prices climb and accelerate inflation worries. It's also lifting expectations for a rate hike later this year. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 6.2% to $92.19 per barrel, and are now up 33% month to date.

"Higher oil prices are the biggest near-term macro risk," says Sameer Samana, head of Global Equities and Real Assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII). "Escalating Middle East tensions have pushed crude prices higher, raising concerns that inflation could reaccelerate and delay interest-rate relief … maybe even cause the Fed to hike."

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And higher Treasury yields, Samana adds, reflect "expectations that rates may stay higher for longer, creating potential headwinds for rate-sensitive sectors and long-duration assets."

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 57% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point in September — and a 26% probability it will raise rates by a half-percentage point.

The odds for a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting are currently at 36%, up from 12% one week ago.

Alphabet stock has its worst day since May 2025 on capex worries

In single-stock news, Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped 7.1% today, the Dow Jones stock's worst day since May 2025, after the Google parent reported earnings.

While Alphabet beat on the top and bottom lines on strong revenue growth in its Cloud, Search and YouTube segments, the company's increased spending is worrying Wall Street. In its earnings call, management said it is raising its full-year capex budget to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion from $180 billion to $190 billion.

The higher capex, Alphabet admits, will keep pressure on free cash flow — which came in negative for the first time in Q2 — but "enables us to capitalize on the AI opportunity and continue to drive attractive returns."

Tesla loses $203 billion in market value today

Fellow Magnificent 7 stock Tesla (TSLA) fell 14.5% — shedding $203 billion in market value — after the mega cap reported lower-than-expected second-quarter earnings. TSLA also saw free cash flow turn negative in Q2, reporting a deficit of $1.1 billion, while capex more than doubled from the year prior, to $5.8 billion.

In the company's earnings call, Tesla's chief financial officer, Vaibhav Taneja, said capex will rise even further from here.

"CapEx will grow for the next two to three years as we expand our robotaxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity and AI compute infrastructure in addition to all the other expansions we'll do for other manufacturing for automotive," Taneja explained.

"TSLA is in the midst of a high investment period so capex efficiency is key with the payoff from these investments further down the road, in our view," says UBS Global Research analyst Joseph Spak.

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Two of the three main equity indexes opened lower on Wednesday as escalation of the war in the Middle East cast a "risk-off" pall on markets. Investors, traders and speculators eased back into "risk-on" names as the trading session evolved, with focus on the first two Magnificent 7 revelations of the earnings season. Midday momentum ebbed, though, and all three indexes closed lower.

"From this point forward," President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social before the opening bell, "any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up another 2.8% to $86.66 per barrel. WTI has risen 29.3% since hitting an intraday "ceasefire" low of $67.04 on July 2. Crude oil closed at $67.02 on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East began.

The 2-year Treasury yield hit another new 52-week high on the way to closing at 4.304% vs 4.261% on Tuesday, and the 10-year yield was up to 4.659% from 4.628%. As Bloomberg calculates, the 30-year yield, which ticked up to 5.149% from 5.131%, has now been above 5% for more days in 2026 than in any other year since 2007.

Technology opened lower a day after a big bounce led by semiconductor stocks including Micron Technology (MU, -1.2%) and SK Hynix (SKHY, -3.9%) before rallying through midday. At the same time, Nvidia (NVDA, +2.3%) posted the biggest gain among Dow Jones stocks.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.6% at 25,690, the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.1% at 7,498, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had ceded six points, or 0.01%, to 52,218.

"This volatility is due primarily due to rising interest rates driven by the escalating conflict in Iran and rising energy prices," writes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

What you need to know about Alphabet earnings

Alphabet (GOOGL, -1.5%), which replaced Verizon Communications (VZ, +1.1%) in the Dow on June 29, posted earnings for the first time as a member of the 30-stock index after today's closing bell.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA, -1.3%) and the Google parent are the first two of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report this season.

The big number to track here is second-quarter capital expenditures. Alphabet said it would spend $180 billion to $190 billion this year to build out its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

According to FactSet, Wall Street forecast capex of $45.1 billion for the three months through June 30, an estimated increase of 101.3% from the $22.4 billion Alphabet laid out a year ago, and a full-year run rate of $180.4 billion.

How GOOGL is trading right now is probably a function of where its second-quarter capex came in relative to its guidance and Wall Street's estimate, as well as whether management has revised its outlook.

Constellation has the power

Energy stocks, including Chevron (CVX, +1.0%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, +1.8%), were boosted again by crude oil's rise. CVX was up 12.9% and XOM 10.7% from July 2 through July 21 vs a gain of 0.4% for the S&P 500.

The vertically integrated supermajors, with upstream, midstream and downstream exposure, will update the market on how the energy shock is affecting their operations before the opening bell next Friday, July 31.

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Utility stocks, well positioned to serve power-hungry hyperscalers but also relatively stable vs AI stocks, were tops among the 11 market sectors recognized by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Constellation Energy (CEG, +4.8%), as Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro noted when he picked up coverage of the sector leader in March, is also getting a lift from the biggest carbon-free nuclear generation capacity in the U.S.

Indeed, Constellation's 21 reactors across 12 facilities in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey and Texas can power a lot of data centers.

Arcaro recently reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating on CEG and raised his 12-month target price from $364 to $366. Constellation Energy is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings report on Thursday, August 6.

Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has approved a 30-year agreement to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear power program "estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars."

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Technology stocks took off on Tuesday, and crude oil prices did the same. Investors, traders and speculators are looking forward to imminent earnings announcements from two of the Magnificent 7, even as the U.S. and Iran are escalating the war in the Middle East.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.3% at 25,837, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.9% at 7,509, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.7% at 52,224.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 2.7% to $84.68 per barrel, and the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.266% from 4.215% on Monday.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +5.5%) extended its gain on Monday into a full-blown rally on Tuesday, though the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS, +0.01%) generated a more modest return.

"The market continues to look through the Middle East situation as transitory and is staying focused on strong earnings," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes. "The trend remains positive."

It's all about earnings

Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, -1.4%) and electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA, +2.5%) are scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.

Much is riding on all of the Magnificent 7 stocks, Nvidia (NVDA, +2.0%) in particular. As FactSet analyst John Butters notes, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the group is 31.1%.

But there's a lot riding on earnings generally: The other 493 S&P 500 stocks are expected to post bottom-line growth of 22.8%, which would be their highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.

"In fact," Butters writes, "four of the five top contributors to earnings growth for the S&P 500 for Q2 2026 are not 'Magnificent 7' companies: Micron Technology (MU, +12.2%), Chevron (CVX, +0.7%), Exxon Mobil (XOM, +2.3%), and Broadcom (AVGO, +2.2%)."

Indeed, the leader of the AI revolution is the only Mag 7 stock that's also a top-five contributor to current earnings growth estimates. Nvidia posted fiscal 2027 first-quarter results in May and will report again on Wednesday, August 26.

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The energy stocks stand out, too, amid the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron and Exxon Mobil are scheduled to report second-quarter results before the opening bell next Friday, July 31.

Micron and Broadcom revealed blowout results for their respective fiscal quarters in June. The semiconductor stocks are scheduled to report again in September.

3M looks good

3M (MMM) was No. 1 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks on Tuesday, rising as much as 10.7% to within $1.26 of its February 12 52-week high, after management reported expectations-beating results and raised its full-year guidance.

3M now sees earnings of $8.80 to $8.95 per share for 2026, up from a range of $8.50 to $8.70, with CEO Bill Brown citing "strong first-half performance and continued momentum."

The industrial stock generated a year-to-date total return of 0.3% through Monday vs 9.4% for the S&P 500, sagging in January after management shared lackluster initial guidance and trending lower through May.

Genuine Parts cuts some guidance

Genuine Parts (GPC, -2.7%) is one of the best stocks to buy for dependable dividend growth because of a 70-year history of raising its quarterly payout. Management of the automotive and industrial parts maker sustained that record in February with a 3.2% increase.

At the same time, though, the consumer discretionary stock said it was splitting into two publicly traded companies, "Global Automotive," which operates as the familiar NAPA retail front, and "Global Industrial," which works under the Motion banner.

The separation is costing more than management forecast, so Genuine Parts updated elements of its full-year forecast, most notably GAAP EPS. That estimate was revised from $6.10 to $6.60 to $5.90 to $6.40.

Management reaffirmed its adjusted EPS guidance range, $7.50 to $8, as well as its 3% to 5% revenue growth rate forecast. Still, that updated element shook the market.

It appears management understood the gravity of its decision and conducted a thorough review: "The company considered its recent business trends and financial results, current growth plans, strategic initiatives, global economic outlook, geopolitical conflicts and the potential impact on results in updating its outlook."

Genuine Parts hasn't defined a post-separation dividend policy, though details will likely be forthcoming following the forecast completion of the separation in the first quarter of 2027.

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With many Big Tech names lining up to report quarterly results this week and next, investors, traders and speculators would prefer to focus on AI, earnings and guidance rather than uncertainty about the Middle East, inflation and interest rates. The main equity indexes reflected this balancing act on Monday.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.05% at 25,508, the S&P 500 had slipped 0.2% to 7,443, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.6% at 51,841.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract added 0.9% to $82.49 per barrel, and the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.208% from 4.172% on Friday.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +0.5%) recovered after posting a 10.2% decline last week amid renewed concerns about hyperscaler spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, as well as another threat posed by an emergent Chinese AI model.

"Despite the recent pullback," observes LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, citing last week's 1.6% decline for the S&P 500, "market breadth continues to improve."

As Turnquist notes, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has increased to nearly 70% from just above 50% in May, "signaling that participation beneath the surface remains considerably healthier than it was just a few months ago."

At the same time, price action remains volatile amid a cycle of escalating and de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

Apple falls from high branches

Apple (AAPL, -2.1%) was one of three Magnificent 7 stocks in the red on Monday, the share price for the iPhone maker tracking back after hitting new highs on Friday, likely due to some profit-taking.

AAPL reached a fresh intraday peak of $334.99 and a closing record of $333.74 on July 17, briefly overtaking Nvidia (NVDA, +0.2%) as the biggest company in the world based on a market cap.

Tesla (TSLA, -3.0%), meanwhile, sold off ahead of its turn on the earnings calendar after the closing bell on Wednesday. Tesla pre-reported a 25% increase in EV deliveries during the second quarter.

TSLA hasn't seen much upside based on its relationship to SpaceX (SPCX, -3.3%), though the consumer discretionary stock has drifted lower in the afterburn of the biggest IPO in stock market history.

While AAPL was dragging on the index, Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, +1.5%) was among the top-performing Dow Jones stocks on Monday, along with Amazon (AMZN, +1.1%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +2.2%).

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Alphabet is also scheduled to report second-quarter results after Wednesday's closing bell. Amazon and Apple are scheduled to report on July 30, Microsoft on July 29.

For the record, Meta Platforms (META, -0.02%) closed marginally lower on Monday. The Facebook parent is scheduled to report earnings on July 29. Nvidia will report on Wednesday, August 26.

AMC's rise is Homeric

AMC Entertainment (AMC), among the most notorious small-cap stocks in financial market history, was up as much as 27.8% on Monday after management reported the highest revenue in the movie-theater operator's more than 100 years in business.

AMC generated earnings of 14 cents per share vs a Wall Street forecast for a loss of four cents per share. Revenue grew by 14.2% to $1.59 billion, topping a consensus estimate of $1.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was up 69.6% to a company-record $321.4 million.

According to CEO Adam Aron (PDF), it's the first time AMC has surpassed $300 million adjusted EBITDA for a three-month period, and AMC also generated $190.1 million in free cash flow.

The CEO is optimistic: "This weekend's powerful debut of Universal Pictures and Christopher Nolan's THE ODYSSEY, with an encouraging media reported $124 million domestic opening, is the latest reminder of the strength of today's theatrical marketplace."

Aron says the filmed version of Homer's epic poem follows a second quarter during which six different movies posted domestic opening weekend gross box office totals of more than $75 million.

"We believe that movie theatres will enjoy, in the full twelve-months of 2026, their strongest yet post-pandemic year, at both the domestic and the global box office," the CEO concludes.

Indeed, with a year-to-date total return of almost 25% vs less than 10% for the S&P 500, the freebies aren't the only thing you can enjoy about this stock.

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Another down day for tech stocks weighed on the broader market Friday, with today's leg lower sparked by reports that a new artificial intelligence model from Chinese startup Moonshot AI bridges the gap with several U.S. models. Poorly received earnings results from streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) weighed on sentiment, too.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.4% at 25,520, the broader S&P 500 was off 1.0% at 7,457, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.8% lower at 52,146.

News that Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 is powerful enough to rival models from OpenAI and Anthropic revived competition fears — and rehashed memories from early 2025, when China's DeepSeek sent stocks into a tailspin. It also pressured several AI-related names, including Nvidia (NVDA, -2.2%) and Intel (INTC, -2.0%).

Netflix stock slides after earnings

A negative reaction to Netflix's second-quarter results also weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq today, with the communication services stock sliding 7.3% — its worst day since April 17.

While the company's earnings of 80 cents per share beat analysts' estimates, its revenue of $12.56 billion fell short and its third-quarter revenue forecast came in slightly below the consensus.

In addition, Netflix said it will begin reporting engagement data on an annual basis vs a bi-annual one. "The goal of separating the publication of the report from our earnings results is to keep the focus on our primary financial metrics — revenue and operating profit," the company explained.

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Despite the top-line miss and subsequent stock sell-off, Argus Research analyst Joseph Bonner reiterated a Buy rating on Netflix. He also maintained a $120 price target, representing implied upside of 74% to current levels.

"While competition is intense amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Netflix remains the 'anchor tenant' for consumers in long-form video streaming," says Bonner. "We see the company's incremental moves into live-event sports programming as particularly directed at enhancing its advertising market as well as subscriber acquisition," adding that live events have a higher ad value than scripted content.

As for that advertising business, Bonner notes that Netflix expects ad revenue to double this year, to $3 billion, showing that this segment "continues to scale rapidly.

Travelers soars on Q2 beat

On the plus side of the ledger was The Travelers Companies (TRV), which jumped 9.2% — making it the best Dow Jones stock today — after the property and casualty insurer reported better-than-expected second-quarter results.

In addition to higher demand for insurance, Travelers also saw its catastrophe losses narrow in Q2 and its net investment income soar.

"The scale of our earnings and cash flow enable us to invest in differentiating technology, including AI, at a level that sets us apart, further strengthening the competitive advantages that power those results," said Travelers CEO Alan Schnitzer.

Ahead of earnings, Truist Securities analyst Mark Hughes initiated coverage on the blue chip stock with a Buy rating, saying it is trading at an attractive valuation. "More broadly, we believe the P&C group should be a good performer in light of its consistent topline, limited credit exposure, and moderate interest rate sensitivity."

The earnings calendar heats up next week, with Magnificent 7 stocks Alphabet (GOOGL, -2.2%) and Tesla (TSLA, -2.6%) both reporting.

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