A practical way to think about artificial intelligence (AI) investing is to break down the value chain and identify bottlenecks, when demand exceeds available capacity.

These imbalances matter because companies controlling the constrained part of the ecosystem often gain pricing power and experience surging demand.

If you're an investor, you probably know by now about several bottlenecks emerging from the AI boom. Electricity demand, for example, has turned utility stocks into indirect AI plays because they generate and transmit the electricity that powers data centers.

Data-center demand leads data center supply right now, too, a trade expressed through certain real estate investment trusts (REITs) that own and lease these facilities to hyperscalers and enterprise customers.

The most obvious bottleneck, however, remains semiconductors. Modern computing is built on them, and AI systems require enormous quantities of advanced chips capable of handling parallel processing and large-scale data movement.

That said, the semiconductor industry itself is highly diverse. Some companies design chips, others manufacture them, while others focus on fabrication equipment, memory, networking or analog components.

Depending on which type of semiconductor company you own, you might be exposed to very different risks, ranging from geopolitical tensions and manufacturing bottlenecks to cyclical swings in consumer electronics demand.

If you're looking to capitalize on the broad drivers behind AI infrastructure spending, semiconductor ETFs can simplify the process of establishing more concentrated but still efficient exposure to chipmakers.

The types of semiconductor stocks

The semiconductor industry is a broad category with big variations between business models, risks and sources of revenue.

One of the most recognizable groups are chip designers, which develop architecture and intellectual property but often outsource manufacturing to third-party foundries. Examples include Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO).

Fabrication companies, or "fabs," manufacture chips at extraordinarily expensive and technology demanding foundries. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is the dominant pure-play foundry, while Intel (INTC) both designs and manufactures chips through its integrated model.

Memory semiconductor companies specialize in products such as DRAM and NAND flash memory, critical for servers, AI accelerators, smartphones and data centers. Examples include SK Hynix and Micron Technology (MU).

Semiconductor equipment companies, which make the specialized tools and machinery needed to fabricate chips, sit even higher up the value chain. The standout company here is ASML Holding (ASML).

How we chose the best semiconductor ETFs

We began by excluding ETFs tied to single stocks, including leveraged long and inverse ETFs linked to companies such as Nvidia, along with covered call income variants advertising double-digit yields.

These products are ultimately tied to the fortunes of one company rather than the semiconductor industry, they cost more, they're more volatile and they're more complex, making them less suitable for the average long-term investor.

We also excluded leveraged, inverse and income-oriented semiconductor ETFs tied to the broader industry itself because of concerns around volatility, leverage decay and elevated fees.

That screening process narrowed the universe down to traditional semiconductor ETFs, either actively managed or index-tracking. From there, we imposed a maximum expense ratio of 0.35%.

We also applied several practical filters designed to improve the investor experience. First, we required ETFs to hold at least $100 million in assets under management.

Second, we screened for liquidity by focusing on each ETF's 30-day median bid-ask spread. To qualify, spreads needed to remain at or below 0.15%. This helps reduce implicit transaction costs when buying or selling shares.

The end result was a smaller group of semiconductor ETFs that combined broad industry exposure, reasonable fees, sufficient scale and adequate trading liquidity.

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

• Assets under management: $67.9 billion
• Expense ratio: 0.35%
• 30-day median bid-ask spread: 0.02%
• One-year annual return: 137.4%

By assets under management, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is the largest and most widely used semiconductor ETF on the market. Since debuting in December 2011, it's also been one of the strongest-performing ETFs, including a 36.9% annualized total return over the trailing 10 years.

SMH tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, which focuses on the largest and most liquid semiconductor companies. The portfolio uses a market cap-weighted methodology, meaning larger companies receive larger allocations.

Historically, this approach has worked well for SMH. By allowing dominant large-cap stocks to appreciate without aggressively capping their weights, the ETF has fully benefited from the outsize gains generated by the industry's biggest winners.

That dynamic is most visible with Nvidia. The leader of the AI revolution accounts for more than 15% of SMH's portfolio. While this concentration has materially boosted returns, it also creates a meaningful degree of single-stock risk for new investors entering today.

Risk is another important consideration. Relative to the S&P 500, SMH carries a three-year beta of 1.93 and a three-year standard deviation of 30.5%. In practical terms, that means the ETF has historically been substantially more volatile than the broader stock market.

Still, for investors primarily seeking exposure to the largest and most influential semiconductor companies, and who are comfortable with a sizable NVDA allocation, SMH remains one of the purest and most liquid ways to express that view.

Learn more about SMH at the VanEck provider site.

VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF

• Assets under management: $280.5 million
• Expense ratio: 0.35%
• 30-day median bid-ask spread: 0.10%
• One-year annual return: 118.5%

The VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) exists because some semiconductor investors are uncomfortable with fabrication-related supply chain and geopolitical risk. Much of this concern is about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

Taiwan's political status remains disputed under China's reunification policy, and investors periodically worry that geopolitical tensions in the region could disrupt semiconductor supply chains. Since many leading chip designers depend heavily on TSM fabrication capacity, this concentration risk has become an increasingly important consideration for the industry.

Fabrication businesses also tend to be highly asset intensive. Building and maintaining fabs requires enormous upfront capital expenditures, ongoing equipment upgrades and substantial energy and water usage. This can create margin pressure during downturns and increase operational risk.

To address investor demand for fabless exposure, SMHX focuses specifically on semiconductor companies that design chips but outsource manufacturing.

Compared with SMH, the portfolio composition looks materially different. According to ETF Research Center data, the overlap between SMHX and SMH is roughly 45% by weight across 10 holdings.

That means investors are either underweight or entirely excluding companies such as TSM, Intel, Micron, Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog Devices (ADI) and Lam Research (LRCX). In exchange, the ETF leans more heavily into designers and intellectual property-focused firms such as Broadcom, Arm Holdings (ARM) and Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC).

Since launch, SMHX has trailed SMH because fabrication-related companies have generally outperformed during the recent AI-driven semiconductor boom. Investors should still expect concentration risk, however. Nvidia remains roughly 13.9% of the ETF's assets, followed by Broadcom at 10.8%.

Learn more about SMHX at the VanEck provider site.

iShares Semiconductor ETF

• Assets under management: $39.0 billion
• Expense ratio: 0.35%
• 30-day median bid-ask spread: 0.02%
• One-year return: 164.6%

Most semiconductor ETFs are going to have substantial overlap because the industry itself is only so large. However, the weightings can differ materially depending on the benchmark index each ETF tracks.

That distinction becomes very apparent with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which competes directly against SMH while charging the exact same 0.35% expense ratio. SOXX is the older product, debuting in July 2001, though it remains somewhat smaller than SMH despite still managing tens of billions in assets.

The ETF tracks the NYSE Semiconductor Index, which holds 30 U.S.-listed semiconductor companies screened for liquidity and size. The major difference comes down to weighting methodology. Compared with SMH, SOXX spreads allocations more evenly across its largest holdings.

Instead of a very large overweight to Nvidia, the top positions are distributed more broadly among companies such as Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Intel and Nvidia itself. The portfolio is still concentrated overall, but the weighting structure reduces the risk of a single company completely dominating performance.

Another reason some investors might prefer SOXX relates to tax-loss harvesting. Because SOXX and SMH have similar historical performance, comparable fees and overlapping holdings, investors can potentially swap between them to realize capital losses without materially changing exposure.

Because the ETFs track different indices, an investor could theoretically sell one and immediately purchase the other without triggering the wash sale rule, avoiding the need to wait 31 days out of the market.

Learn more about SOXX at the iShares provider site.

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF

• Assets under management: $3.4 billion
• Expense ratio: 0.35%
• 30-day median bid-ask spread: 0.15%
• One-year total return: 154.2%

The preceding semiconductor ETFs all use some variation of market-cap weighting, sometimes with additional adjustments for liquidity and free float. That approach has historically worked well in semiconductors because the industry exhibits a very large degree of performance dispersion.

Being able to identify the winner and allow it to compound into a larger position can materially boost returns. The downside is concentration risk.

Investors entering near the later stages of a semiconductor bull market can find themselves heavily exposed to a small number of companies. During downturns, that same concentration can amplify losses. A more balanced approach can be expressed through the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD).

This ETF tracks the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index, an equal-weighted benchmark currently composed of 44 holdings. Equal weighting means each company receives roughly the same allocation regardless of whether it's a small-cap, midcap or large-cap semiconductor stock.

The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly, which systematically trims outperformers and reallocates capital toward laggards. In practice, this creates a "sell high, buy low" mechanism, and XSD's largest holdings are often the hottest chip stocks.

However, those weights aren't permanent. At the next quarterly rebalance, stronger-performing holdings will be trimmed back toward equal allocations, while laggards will be added to.

This structure can appeal to investors seeking lower concentration risk and broader exposure across the semiconductor ecosystem. The trade-off is that it limits the ability of major winners to compound into outsized positions.

Over the trailing 10-year period, XSD still delivered an impressive 29.8% annualized total return, though it lagged more concentrated ETFs such as SMH because the largest winners weren't allowed to run.

Still, past performance doesn't predict future results. For investors more concerned about excessive dependence on a handful of megacap chipmakers, XSD might be a more balanced way to gain semiconductor exposure.

Learn more about XSD at the State Street Investment Management provider site.

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

• Assets under management: $2.5 billion
• Expense ratio: 0.19%
• 30-day median bid-ask spread: 0.03%
• One-year total return: 157.4%

Investors might have noticed that most of the previous semiconductor ETFs charge a 0.35% expense ratio. That's largely a function of how industry-specific ETFs have historically been priced.

A major reason for this is the influence of State Street Investment Management, which built one of the largest lineups of industry ETFs in the market. Over time, 0.35% effectively became the standard pricing level investors grew accustomed to paying for specialized industry exposure.

Some ETF providers, however, have attempted to compete more aggressively on fees. In semiconductors, one of the lowest-cost options currently available is the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ), which charges a 0.19% expense ratio.

For a $10,000 investment, that translates into roughly $19 annually in fee drag vs approximately $35 for many competing semiconductor ETFs.

SOXQ tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which holds 30 of the largest U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. The index is rebalanced quarterly in March, June, September and December, with a full annual reconstitution each September.

Rebalancing and reconstitution are related but different processes. Rebalancing adjusts the weights of existing holdings back toward the index methodology, while reconstitution determines which companies are added to or removed from the index entirely based on eligibility rules.

Like SOXX, SOXQ is materially less concentrated than SMH, but it achieves this without relying on the equal-weighted structure used by XSD. The portfolio's largest holdings include Nvidia, Micron Technology, Broadcom and Intel, with each remaining at or below roughly a 10% portfolio allocation.

Learn more about SOXQ at the Invesco provider site.

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The main equity indexes opened comfortably higher Tuesday but quickly erased these early gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions. A bearish reversal in chip stocks created headwinds, too, as market participants sought out more defensive plays.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite were each roughly 1% higher out of the gate today, but were staring at stiff losses by lunchtime. At the close, the Dow was up 0.2% at 50,872, but the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower at 7,386, and the Nasdaq was off 1% at 25,678.

Sentiment took a hit after President Donald Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. military helicopter and that "the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack."

Trump's post on Truth Social temporarily caused oil prices to spike, but front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished the session down 3.4% at $88.20 per barrel after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is "rising very meaningfully."

Fear gauge spikes, defensive stocks see upside

Evidence of investors' skittishness was seen in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) Tuesday, with the market's "fear gauge" jumping 5% to 19.86.

Gains in several defensive sectors, including real estate (+2.1%), healthcare (+1.3%) and consumer staples stocks (+1.0%) also signaled a more cautious stance from market participants.

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J. M. Smucker (SJM, +10.4%) was the best S&P 500 stock today as the packaged-food maker's better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter offset its forecast for declining revenue in its new fiscal year.

Ahead of SJM's earnings report, UBS Global Research analyst Peter Grom reiterated a Buy rating on the defensive stock, saying the company's "setup remains among the best in the group as SJM will likely underwrite on-algorithm bottom-line growth for fiscal 2027, a rarity relative not only to Packaged Food peers but also across our whole Staples universe."

And while Grom expected weaker top-line guidance, he noted that "investors view SJM's portfolio as more immune to the ongoing challenges across the industry."

Micron's sell-off is an "opportunity," says UBS

Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red today — technology (-1.8%) and energy (-1.6%). But given that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are weighted by market capitalization rather than price as is the Dow, the selling in mega-cap tech stocks had an outsize impact.

Several of Wall Street's trillion-dollar stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA, -0.2%), Apple (AAPL, -3.6%) and Broadcom (AVGO, -1.1%) closed lower.

Memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), which catapulted north of a $1 trillion market cap late last month, also finished in the red, shedding 1.4%. Shares are now down more than 13% since June 3, but Wall Street isn't worried.

Indeed, MU remains one of analysts' top-rated S&P 500 stocks. Of the 44 analysts covering the tech stock tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 39 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, four have it at Hold and one says Sell. This works out to a consensus Strong Buy rating.

UBS Global Research analyst Nicolas Gaudois on Monday reiterated his Buy rating and $1,625 price target — representing implied upside of nearly 75% to current levels.

Gaudois says Micron's recent sell-off creates an "opportunity" for investors, as "checks point to continuing upside in demand [for memory chipmakers], not downside, which is likely to persist on agentic AI demand."

What to expect from the May CPI report

The war in Iran and semiconductor volatility are top of mind for Wall Street this week, but market participants will also be watching Wednesday morning's release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Energy prices have soared in recent months as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused recent inflation readings to come in hot and erased any expectations for rate cuts this year.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders don't expect any rate cuts at all in 2026. Earlier this year, betting odds were for at least one quarter-point cut.

The Federal Open Market Committee may even consider rate hikes this year, writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger inflation outlook. "The Fed generally discounts energy price fluctuations in its deliberations on interest rate policy. But the central bank will also note that 'core' inflation (excluding food and energy) is likely to creep upwards as the year progresses," he explains.

The May CPI report hits one week before the Fed — now led by Chair Kevin Warsh — issues its latest policy decision. Economists expect headline inflation to be up 4.3% year over year, which would be the highest annual increase since April 2023.

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Stocks opened higher across the board Monday as chips stocks rebounded from Friday's drubbing. But while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the broader S&P 500 held their gains through the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was not so resilient.

At the close, the Nasdaq was up 0.9% at 25,929 and the S&P 500 was 0.3% higher at 7,405. The Dow, on the other hand, was down 0.2% at 50,786.

On Friday, a broad sell-off in semiconductor stocks weighed down the three main equity benchmarks, with the Nasdaq incurring its biggest one-day drop in over a year.

"The AI-fueled tech rally got a bit of a reality check last week, but after nine straight up weeks, the market was arguably due for at least a reset," says Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "The fact that Friday's strong jobs report appeared to add fuel to the selling indicates the market could be even more focused on inflation going forward."

And while Larkin says Friday's sharp losses did not "derail the rally," it does suggest market participants are "more sensitive to negative surprises in the near term."

This makes the Wednesday morning release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) an even bigger economic calendar event than usual, because recent hot inflation readings have erased any expectations for rate cuts this year.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders don't expect any rate cuts at all in 2026. Earlier this year, betting odds were for at least one quarter-point cut.

The Federal Open Market Committee may even consider rate hikes this year, writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger inflation outlook. "The Fed generally discounts energy price fluctuations in its deliberations on interest rate policy. But the central bank will also note that 'core' inflation (excluding food and energy) is likely to creep upwards as the year progresses," he explains.

Wednesday's inflation date hits one week before the Fed — now led by Chair Kevin Warsh — issues its latest policy decision.

Intel, Micron lead chip rebound

Chip stocks created the biggest buying pressure to start the week, rebounding after disappointing Broadcom's (AVGO, +2.8%) guidance sparked an industry-wide meltdown.

Intel (INTC, +11.2%) and Micron Technology (MU, +9.9%) were the best-performing S&P 500 stocks Monday, followed closely by KLA Corp. (KLAC, +9.3%).

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Meanwhile, Marvell Technology (MRVL), which will join the S&P 500 ahead of the June 22 open — replacing Pool (POOL, -2.5%) — surged 9.6%.

S&P Global also announced that data center solutions firm Flex (FLEX, -0.7%) will replace The Campbell's Company (CPB, -0.9%) on the S&P 500, effective June 22.

Apple slips as WWDC kicks off

Not all tech stocks were higher to start the week. Apple (AAPL), for one, dropped 1.9% as the iPhone parent kicked off WWDC 2026, its annual developers conference.

In addition to unveiling new child safety features for parents and its latest operating systems, the company also gave a highly anticipated update to its artificial intelligence strategy.

For one thing, Apple is rebranding Siri as "Siri AI" and it will use Apple Intelligence to become "a profoundly more capable assistant," said Mike Rockwell, VP of engineering at Apple.

The company also announced new ways users can utilize Apple Intelligence, including fixing insecure passwords and analyzing videos taken with the Home app.

Earlier this year, Apple said that it signed a multi-year agreement with Alphabet's (GOOGL, -1.4%) Google to use its Gemini AI model to power Siri and Apple Intelligence.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks Apple's AI initiatives will be a game-changer for the Dow Jones stock.

"We strongly believe this will be the start of AI monetization period of the Apple ecosystem as the company will continue lay the foundation through its new operating system updates across mac, iOS, iPad, and others with its iOS 27 update," Ives writes in a June 4 research note.

And the company's AI monetization efforts "will ultimately add $75 to $100 to Apple stock and that is not being factored into the current multiple in our view," he says. "We see a golden path ahead for Apple in this AI era … it starts at WWDC."

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All three main equity indexes closed lower on Friday, as the AI trade unwound a little more in the wake of weak guidance from a major chip player. Meanwhile, a much stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report sapped almost all hope for lower interest rates this year.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 2.9% to $90.32 per barrel on Friday but rose 3.4% this week. The U.S. and Iran are in a stalemate in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Saturday marking 100 days since the war began on February 28.

Broadcom (AVGO, -7.9%) was a big drag on two of the main equity indexes again in the aftermath of the semiconductor stock's underwhelming guidance, the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS, -3.8%) posted a steep loss and Nvidia (NVDA, -6.2%), the leader of the AI revolution, finished down more than 6% amid a sea of red for tech.

At the closing bell, the Nasdaq Composite was down 4.2% for the day and 4.7% for the week at 25,709. The broad-based S&P 500 had shed 2.6% to 7,383, finishing the five days with a loss of 2.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another new all-time high on an intraday basis early in the session but finished down 1.4% at 50,866. The index of blue chip stocks finished the week lower by 0.3%.

Hot jobs report sends rates higher

The May jobs report was a lot stronger than expected, which is generally good news for consumers and the broader economy. But it's bad news for investors, traders and speculators who want to see lower interest rates.

The 2-year Treasury yield, the market's measure of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate, ticked up to 4.16% from 4.049% on Thursday and 4.014% on Friday, May 29.

The 10-year Treasury yield, considered a broad measure of the economy but also the basis for the cost of corporate debt and auto loans, rose to 4.542% from 4.477% on Thursday and 4.453% last Friday.

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New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh might be able to do several things to change the central bank right now, but it looks like he won't be able to cut interest rates as soon as President Donald Trump would like. The next Fed meeting, for what it's worth, runs from June 16-17.

IBM leads the Dow lower

International Business Machines (IBM, -5.6%) was the three worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Friday, sliding again after posting losses of 7.2% on Wednesday and 1.3% on Thursday. Big Blue was up 7.6% on Monday and 2.7% on Tuesday, hitting a new 52-week high of $332.46 intraday, after management announced a $10 billion investment in quantum computing over the next five years.

IBM traded at its 52-week low of $212.34 intraday on May 13, so it's a 56.6% bottom-to-top run in about two and half weeks that's being digested.

As Wedbush analysts Matt Bryson and Antoine Legault explain, IBM is focused on building a "fault-tolerant" quantum computer by 2029, IBM Quantum Starling. Its planned investment is "another validation of quantum technology's potential."

"While we view IBM's 2029 goal as the de facto industry standard at this point (with most vendors targeting 2029/2030 for quantum equivalency)," the analysts write, "the scale of capital and a dedicated domestic foundry arguably give IBM's goal more weight than a standalone roadmap slide."

IBM was also named a partner for Nvidia's Vera Rubin AI accelerators.

TTAN is a blue-collar tech stock

ServiceTitan (TTAN, +4.1%) is definitely a tech stock according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, but it makes software for plumbers, electricians and other blue-collar tradespeople. That distinction hasn't exempted it from the existential crisis for software stocks in 2026.

But a team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Josh Baer sees TTAN as a "Top Pick" based on a "clean beat" for fiscal first-quarter results, including gross transaction volume, revenue, margins and free cash flow. Full-year guidance was ahead of Wall Street's forecast, too.

The analysts reiterated their Overweight (Buy) rating and raised their 12-month target price from $118 to $124 after ServiceTitan reported earnings on Friday.

As Baer and his colleagues note, growth accelerated for ServiceTitan. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence and its opportunity in the commercial space "expand the story," the fiscal 2027 setup "looks attractive," and TTAN's valuation "remains compelling."

At the same time, the analysts write, ServiceTitan is "well positioned for AI," based on ownership of "vast proprietary data sets serving as a moat." It also "enjoys current and future potential for high market share to yield large installed bases into which it can sell its AI solutions."

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Stocks got off to a rocky start Tuesday, but another day of strong gains for tech stocks lifted all three main equity indexes higher into the close. Energy stocks also gave a boost to the broader market as oil prices climbed for a second straight day.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 51,307, the broader S&P 500 added 0.1% to 7,609, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.03% to 27,093 — new all-time highs.

Meanwhile, amid no new headlines regarding the war in Iran, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose more than 1% to settle at $93.69 per barrel.

This helped boost several energy stocks, including Chevron (CVX, +0.9%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, +0.1%).

Jensen Huang calls Marvell the "next trillion-dollar" stock

Marvell Technology (MRVL) was the best-performing S&P 500 stock today, surging 32.5% after Nvidia (NVDA, -0.7%) CEO Jensen Huang said he believes the chipmaker will be the "next trillion-dollar company."

Speaking at the Computex 2026 AI exhibition, Huang said that Marvell's networking and computing chips are essential to connecting all the pieces across data centers.

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"We've distributed and disaggregated computing so that it runs across these enormous clusters, so that we could get aggregating the total compute, the total memory, the total bandwidth that we have, and what makes it possible is connectivity," Huang added.

In late March, MRVL shares surged after Nvidia disclosed a $2 billion stake in the semiconductor stock — and longer term, it's up nearly fourfold in the past 12 months. But its current market cap is just above $254 billion, meaning its share price would need to quadruple to reach that $1 trillion mark.

Alphabet sinks on $80 billion stock offering

Not all AI stocks were higher today, though. Alphabet (GOOGL), which is technically a communication services stock, slumped 3.9% after the Google parent said it will raise $80 billion through an equity offering to fund its AI capital expenditures budget for this year and next.

GOOGL also said that it will sell $10 billion of Class A common stock and Class C capital stock (ticker: GOOG) to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) at a discount to where both are currently trading.

"Alphabet intends to use the net proceeds from the concurrent underwritten public offerings and the concurrent private placement for general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures to scale AI infrastructure and global compute," the company explained in its press release (PDF).

In April, Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to $180 billion to $190 billion and said it expects its 2027 spending to reach similar levels.

Alphabet's announcement "is raising concerns about high AI-related expenses against the backdrop of uncertain profitability profiles," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. However, he notes that "strengthening confidence in a solid economy is countering those concerns."

JOLTS comes in higher than expected

One such sign of a stable economy came in the form of this morning's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed 7.6 million job openings in April — the highest level since May 2024 and more than economists expected.

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also showed that hires and separations both declined by roughly 400,000 in April.

"The sharp jump in job openings, combined with declining separations, points to robust employer demand for labor," write Raymond James economists. "This reinforces our view that the labor market is on track for further strength this year following last year's weakness."

The JOLTS data arrived ahead of this Friday's release of the May jobs report, which is expected to show the U.S. added between 75,000 and 85,000 new jobs last month.

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Stocks were choppy Monday as market participants weighed a continued rise in tech stocks against reports that a potential peace plan in the Middle East is in peril.

Wall Street is also looking ahead to Friday's key jobs report — the first of Kevin Warsh's stewardship at the Federal Reserve — which lands two weeks before the June Fed meeting.

Nvidia (NVDA, +6.3%) wowed Wall Street over the weekend, with the artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether unveiling a new processor chip for PCs. The new superchip, RTX Spark, will integrate designs from Arm Holdings (ARM) — sending its shares soaring 15.7% to start the week.

Fellow Dow Jones stock Microsoft (MSFT, +2.3%), who Nvidia is collaborating with on its new chip, also climbed on the news, while chipmaker Intel (INTC, -4.7%) slumped.

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated his Buy rating on NVDA following its appearance at the 2026 Computex AI exhibition this weekend and said it remains a top pick.

"Overall, we see a continued strengthening of NVDA's systems moat and expanding [its] serviceable addressable market from GPU racks to CPUs, networking/optics, storage/security, enterprise software and now personal AI PC," says Arya.

Trump responds after Iran calls off peace plan, shuts Strait of Hormuz

The big rally in the technology sector helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.4% to 27,086), the broader S&P 500 (+0.3% to 7,599), and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.09% to 51,078) close at new record highs, but gains were contained on revamped geopolitical worries.

Iranian media reported on Monday that Tehran will stop negotiating with the U.S. via intermediaries and will close the Strait of Hormuz in reaction to Israel's military attacks on Lebanon, which it says are ceasefire violations.

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President Donald Trump attempted some damage control this afternoon, posting on Truth Social that talks with Iran "are continuing, at a rapid pace," and noting that after talking with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, "there will be no Troops going to Beirut."

Still, oil prices took a notable jump higher to start the week, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbing more than 5% to settle at $92.16 per barrel.

Berkshire unveils its latest big buy

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) surged 22.3% after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -0.9%) said it would buy the homebuilder for $72.50 per share — a 24% premium to its May 29 close.

The all-cash deal, which represents an enterprise value of roughly $8.5 billion, will combine Taylor Morrison with manufactured homebuilder Clayton Homes, which Berkshire bought in 2003, to create a top-five U.S. builder by volume.

UBS Global Research analyst John Lovallo views the acquisition as "a strong vote of confidence in the mid-long term outlook for the homebuilding industry, including what we estimate to be a market that is underbuilt by roughly 7 million units."

The transaction is expected to close in the second half of this year.

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The main stock indexes struggled for big gains on Wednesday, though a positive showing suggests investors, traders and speculators are generally in a "risk on" mood amid optimism about the long-term durability of the market's major theme. The geopolitical landscape is still rocky, but the earnings environment remains healthy.

The White House rapid response team described a draft peace plan that was reported by Iranian state TV and would open the Strait of Hormuz as a "complete fabrication" and "not true." At the same time, President Donald Trump told PBS News that Iran won't get relief from economic sanctions in exchange for its highly enriched uranium. "No, no, not at all. Not sanctions relief, no," the president answered when PBS asked about the status of a key point in negotiations to end the war.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract traded as low as $87.17 per barrel and closed down 4.7% for the day at $89.47. WTI traded as high as $119.48 on March 9, its intraday peak during the war in the Middle East.

The 2-year Treasury yield, a market-based gauge of short-term policy on interest rates, was down 1.7 basis points to 4.033% today vs 4.05% on Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield, a starting point for mortgage rates and corporate bonds, fell 1.4 basis points to 4.447% from 4.491%.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4% at 50,644, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.02% to 7,520, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.07% at 26,674.

Goldman sets year-end target of 8,000 for the S&P 500

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs strategists raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,600. "Continued earnings growth should drive continued equity market upside," the strategists write. "The increased return forecast reflects increased estimates for S&P 500 earnings following an exceptionally strong first-quarter reporting season."

The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks closed lower but has added more than 17% year to date vs a gain of about 10% for the S&P 500 amid enduring appetite for riskier companies. Consumer discretionary stocks and consumer staples stocks were the top two sectors on Wednesday, both groups posting gains of greater than 1%.

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Technology and energy stocks joined financials and utility stocks in the red. Nvidia (NVDA, -1.1%) was one of three Magnificent 7 stocks to post a loss, joining Microsoft (MSFT, -0.8%) and Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.01%).

Amazon.com (AMZN, +2.5%), Apple (AAPL, +0.8%), Meta Platforms (META, +3.7%) and Tesla (TSLA, +1.6%) were up for the day.

Honeywell's Quantinuum files for an IPO

Honeywell (HON, -0.07%) was among 10 Dow Jones stocks in negative territory after its majority-owned subsidiary Quantinuum submitted paperwork to the Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering (IPO).

Quantinuum plans to sell approximately 21.1 million shares at $45 to $50 per share, for estimated proceeds of $941.7 million at the midpoint of the offering and $1.09 billion if underwriters exercise their full allotments.

Quantinuum plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol QNT. Its market cap, assuming the IPO proceeds as expected, would approach $13 billion, making it the biggest pure-play quantum computing offering of 2026.

Quantinuum was founded in 2021 through the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and UK-based startup Cambridge Quantum. Its customers include Amgen (AMGN, +0.03%) and JPMorgan (JPM, -2.5%).

Honeywell is Quantinuum's biggest shareholder, at approximately 54%. Other strategic investors include Amgen and JPMorgan, as well as Mitsui (MITSY, -4.2%) and Nvidia.

Zscaler has execution issues

Zscaler (ZS, -31.5%) was a major drag on Nasdaq-100 ETFs and mutual funds after management reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 third-quarter results but underwhelmed Wall Street with its forward guidance.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says it's a matter of execution at the company level and not a sign of bigger problems for the AI boom. "We believe ZS is a premier name to own as increased enterprise AI adoption further amplifies the need for zero-trust architecture," Ives observes in a post-earnings analysis.

Ives reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating but cut his 12-month target price for the cybersecurity stock from $300 to $220. "Overall, ZS needs to show better execution to get out of the investor penalty box," the analyst concludes.

Indeed, Zscaler says conservative estimates for the fourth quarter and the full year are about the departure of two sales executives.

"We already appointed a replacement for one of these leaders, and we are in the late stages of hiring a leader for the other role," management explained. "However, we are taking a prudent approach to our guidance during the transition."

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All three main equity indexes gapped up on Friday morning and rallied into the weekend, even as oil prices and bond yields remain elevated. There's a new leader in charge at the most important central bank in the world. And the oldest of those main stock indexes just hit another new high.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 50,579, a fresh all-time closing high. The Dow was up 2.1% for the week.

The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,473, ending the week with a gain of 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% to 26,343, rising 0.5% vs last Friday.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract settled at $96.93 per barrel, down 0.02% for the day and 8.1.% for the week.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury, seen by investors, traders and speculators as an indicator of short-term policy direction for the Fed, closed the week at 4.123% vs 4.087% on Thursday and 4.084% last Friday.

Kevin Warsh is officially the Fed chair

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair during a ceremony at the White House on Friday, with President Donald Trump watching his nominee take the oath of office with major questions about inflation and the trajectory of the federal funds rate front of mind for markets.

It's the first time a president has observed the swearing in of a Fed chair since Ronald Reagan and Alan Greenspan in 1987.

"President Trump chose Kevin Warsh to run the Federal Reserve to secure the lower interest rates he has demanded for the past year," Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal observes. "A suddenly pressing question is whether Warsh would have political cover to do the opposite and raise them."

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Merck leads the Dow

Merck (MRK, +5.6%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock on Friday after its China-based partner Kelun-Biotech announced positive Phase III trial results for a new cancer drug.

A combination of Kelun-Biotech's sacituzumab tirumotecan, or sac-TMT, and Merck's Keytruda reduced the risk of tumor progression by 65% in lung cancer patients.

CEO Robert Davis emphasized Merck's efforts to build a "patent wall" during the drugmaker's first-quarter conference call, as Keytruda nears the end of its exclusivity period in 2028. That includes new indications as well as new combinations.

The healthcare stock sagged after reaching its 52-week high of $125.14 on February 25, but stabilized after management reported a narrower-than-expected loss and raised full-year guidance on April 30.

Astera Labs leads the chips

From its most recent all-time closing high on May 11 through May 21, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +2.4%) was down 1.5%. Nvidia (NVDA, -1.9%), the biggest stock in the world by market cap, was basically flat.

But Astera Labs (ALAB, +3.0%) was up 43.6%. The tech stock was up 31.9% this week after Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for ALAB from $215 to $297.

The analyst cited recent channel checks showing AI data center capex budgets will emphasize inference infrastructure in the second half of 2026.

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Stocks were choppy Thursday, but the main indexes muscled into positive territory in mid-afternoon trading and stayed there through the close. Market participants kept a close eye on oil prices and Treasury yields, which stabilized after volatile price action early on, and panned earnings reports from blue-chip bellwethers Nvidia (NVDA) and Walmart (WMT).

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 50,285, the S&P 500 was 0.2% higher at 7,445, and the Nasdaq Composite had gained 0.09% to 26,293.

Helping lift stocks into the close were retreating oil prices. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit an intraday high of $102.66 per barrel, but finished the session down nearly 2% at $96.35 after President Donald Trump said earlier that negotiations with Iran to end the war in the Middle East are in the "final stages."

Treasury yields also eased back from intraday highs. The yield on the 2-year Treasury topped out at 4.117% on Thursday before settling at 4.062%. Similar action was seen on the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields.

Nvidia, Walmart drop after earnings

It's been a busy week for blue-chip earnings and the latest results were poorly received. Nvidia, for one, fell 1.8% today even after the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker reported better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results and gave stronger-than-anticipated guidance.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, says this was "a garden variety beat — a better than expected top and bottom line with guidance above the Street estimate — and one that was well telegraphed following the very strong results from AI-hyperscalers earlier in the earnings season."

The company also unveiled an $80 billion addition to its stock buyback program and hiked its quarterly dividend from 1 cent to 25 cents per share.

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Walmart was another Dow Jones stock that closed lower after earnings, sinking 7.3% on Thursday.

While the world's largest retailer beat on the top and bottom lines for its fiscal 2027 first quarter, its second-quarter and full-year forecasts came in below the Street's estimates.

"I think higher tax returns muted some of the pressure related to higher fuel prices and as we're in a period of time right now where those tax refunds are largely not coming in, I think consumers are going to feel more of that pressure from higher fuel prices," Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey told CNBC. "It's something that we’re keeping a close eye on, but that expectation is built into our guidance for the second quarter."

IBM soars 12% on Trump administration's quantum computing stake

At the other end of the Dow was International Business Machines (IBM), which jumped 12.5% on reports the Trump administration will award the tech giant $1 billion as part of a broader investment in quantum-computing firms.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna has said the company's quantum-computing segment could generate billions of dollars in revenue over the next decade — and this goal is likely to get a push from the Trump administration's investment.

Big Blue is "in the early innings of unlocking benefits at the crossroads of AI and quantum," says Wedbush, and this funding will allow for "a more stable pathway to advance quantum computing developments."

Intuit spirals 20% on layoff news

Elsewhere in the tech space, Intuit (INTU) shares plunged 20% after the financial software firm said it is laying off 17% of its workforce. CEO Sasan Goodarzi said the decision "was not about AI," but rather to streamline the company to make it more efficient and effective.

Intuit also reported its fiscal third-quarter results, which came in higher than expected. However, revenue from the company's TurboTax segment just missed estimates for the three-month period that encompassed tax season.

The "7% year-over-year TurboTax growth came in well below expectations, adding fuel to bear concerns around AI-related disruption as pressure was most pronounced among price-sensitive DIY filers," says UBS Global Research analyst Taylor McGinnis.

The analyst reiterated her Neutral (Hold) rating on the tech stock "given increased uncertainty around the growth trajectory," and lowered her price target to $360 from $440.

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Stocks notched their first win of the week on Wednesday as Treasury yields and oil prices pulled back. Market participants also took an optimistic stance ahead of tonight's quarterly results from AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA), which could help set the tone for the broader market's short-term price action.

After surging to their highest levels in roughly a year, bond yields took a breather today. The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond fell 7.8 basis points to 4.044%, with the yields on the 10-year (-9.3 basis points to 4.576%) and 30-year (-6.5 basis points to 5.116%) Treasury bonds also declining.

Meanwhile, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped more than 5% to $98.26 per barrel.

These declines had a positive impact on the stock market, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 1.3% to 50,009, the broader S&P 500 rising 1.1% to 7,423, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.5% to 26,270.

Nvidia was one of 22 Dow Jones stocks that gained ground today, adding 1.3% ahead of its after-the-close earnings release. You can follow all the latest NVDA news on our live earnings blog.

But it was Goldman Sachs (GS, +5.8%), Nike (NKE, +4.2%) and Boeing (BA, +3.3%) that ended the day at the top of the 30-stock index.

Analysts are bullish on one of Berkshire's newest stocks

Over on the S&P 500, United Airlines (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) were on the leaderboard, rising more than 9% apiece.

DAL made waves after last Friday's close when it was revealed that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +0.09%) initiated a position in the air carrier in the first quarter. According to regulatory filings, the holding company bought 39.8 million shares of Delta in Q1, making the industrial stock the 14th-largest position in the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio.

But Berkshire's not the only one bullish on Delta. Of the 26 analysts following the stock who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 25 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy and just one rates it at Sell. This works out to a consensus Strong Buy recommendation.

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Speaking for the bulls is Susquehanna analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos, who has a Positive (Buy) rating on DAL.

"We view DAL's '3Ds' (diversified, durable, and differentiated) as core to the carrier's ability to navigate what could be a new (mid-term) norm — a volatile macro and geopolitical backdrop," he wrote in a recent note.

TJX pops after earnings, Target drops

Elsewhere on the S&P 500, TJX (TJX) rose 5.7% — its best day since August 21, 2024 — after the off-price retailer reported earnings.

"TJX results were incredibly strong this quarter, beating and raising in every category and underscoring the durability of its off-price model," says Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. "These results allow for expansion plans to continue globally as TJX looks to continue to capture more market share."

The retail stock remains a top pick on Wall Street. The consensus recommendation among the 21 analysts covering TJX who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence is Strong Buy.

Target (TGT, -3.9%), on the other hand, scores a consensus Hold recommendation. Following this morning's first-quarter beat and upwardly revised guidance, CEO Michael Fiddelke warned about the near-term operating environment, "with consumers weighing multiple headwinds and tailwinds and recent dips in consumer sentiment."

"While consumers have proven to be resilient so far, sentiment has been declining recently, and we're keeping a close eye on their spending behavior," added Chief Financial Officer Jim Lee on the earnings call.

And even with the retailer's impressive Q1 numbers, David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, feels "that Target will still be expected to slash prices and spend billions on store and supply chain upgrades, which compresses its profit margins and leaves it with low growth prospects compared to its rivals."

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Stocks opened lower and drifted higher through the middle of the trading session on Tuesday, but all three main equity indexes faded into the closing bell as global bond yields continued to rise. Investors, traders and speculators will turn their attention to Wednesday's post-closing-bell Nvidia earnings event to gauge the health of the market's major trend.

Both the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yield hit 52-week highs, reaching 5.197% and 4.687%, respectively, while the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.112% from 4.09% on Monday.

Meanwhile, the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract dipped 0.1% to $104.29.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8% at 25,870, the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.7% at 7,353, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7% at 49,363.

Nvidia is down a day ahead of earnings

Nvidia (NVDA, -0.8%), which will report fiscal 2027 first-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, "will help set the tone for a stock market that is in need of its next catalyst after an incredible run since the March lows," Granite Bay Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Paul Stanley writes.

You can keep up with developments and analysis on the latest Nvidia news in our live earnings blog.

As Stanley sees it, that "next catalyst" is critical now, with the market "a bit tired" after a recent strong run but also facing "renewed worries" about inflation and interest rates.

"Investors need some reassurance that the AI story is still alive and well," he explains, "and that the company is producing enough revenue growth to back up its elevated valuation."

Stanley expects Nvidia to justify expectations, "which is just what the stock market is looking for." Indeed, as the CIO concludes, "Nvidia's presence is unavoidable in this market."

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Has Agilysys recovered its footing?

Agilysis (AGYS, +12.5%) was one of those tech stocks that got hammered earlier this year as markets priced in the threat artificial intelligence (AI) represented to companies that write code for a living.

AGYS was down 40.9% year-to-date through Monday's close. Then management reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 Q4 earnings, on top of its 17th straight quarter of record revenue. Management guided to fiscal 2027 revenue of $365 million to $370 million vs a Wall Street forecast for $363.59 million.

"The business has begun a noticeable uptrend in CY26 that should continue throughout FY27," Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz writes. "The strengthening business momentum is visible with top-line and EBITDA growth accelerating in F4Q26." The analyst reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price from $90 to $100, citing "a strong beat-and-guide-above in F4Q26."

Schwarz notes that AGYS already carries premium multiples relative to other small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks in the software industry. "But," he concludes, "if the company keeps beating-and-guiding above, similar to F4Q26, then the stock should keep working."

Home Depot rises on beat-and-reiterate report

Home Depot (HD, +0.9%) was among nine of 30 Dow Jones stocks to post gains on Tuesday after it reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter revenue and earnings that exceeded Wall Street estimates. Management also reaffirmed full-year guidance. HD traded up as much as 1.1% intraday before fading into the closing bell.

Rising fear of inflation is having little impact on the big box home improvement retailer's top line right now. "Our first quarter results were in line with our expectations," CEO Ted Decker said. "The underlying demand in our business was relatively similar to what we saw throughout fiscal 2025, despite greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure."

At the same time, HD hasn't exactly lit up the total return scoreboard lately, with the consumer discretionary stock down more than 12% so far in 2026 and more than 19% over the trailing 12 months.

"To us this indicates that HD continues to bounce along the bottom despite macro headwinds related to housing specifically and the consumer more broadly," D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker observes. "These include higher rates, higher gas prices and a return to inflationary trends in general."

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All three main indexes opened higher Monday, but only one was in positive territory at the close. Tech stocks were the biggest decliners as bond yields continued to climb, while energy stocks outperformed as oil prices jumped to their highest level since early April.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5% at 26,090 and the broader S&P 500 was off 0.07% at 7,403. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 49,686.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures, meanwhile, climbed roughly 3% to settle at $108.66 per barrel.

"The stock market is coming to the sudden realization that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may need to raise rates rather than lower them, and the market hates that," says Richard Reyle, chief investment officer at Questar Capital Partners. "Right now, the bond market is repricing this and rates are drifting higher, which comes just as the hyperscalers enter their most capital-intensive spending cycle, which raises worries about their ability to keep funding this spending."

The CIO says that if bond yields continue to climb, the tech sector's leadership could be threatened. This is because higher interest rates mean future profits are worth less, which is bad news for tech companies whose valuations are based on tomorrow's earnings.

Today, the yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed above the 4.10% level for the first time since June 2025 before ending down 2.8 basis points at 4.056%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.631% — its highest mark since May 2025 — before settling at 4.597%, up 0.2 basis point on the day.

Seagate CEO issues dire warning

Rising bond yields weren't the only headwind tech stocks faced today. Market participants also reacted to a dire warning from Seagate Technology (STX) CEO Dave Mosley.

The executive was asked earlier today at a JPMorgan conference what the data storage specialist could do to meet rising demand for memory chips, which are key to the artificial intelligence (AI) data center buildout.

"If we took the teams off and started building new factories or bringing up new machines [to increase unit capacity], that would just take too long," Mosley said. "You would end up with more capacity, but then you'd slow the rate of growth on that technology."

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The answer only amplified Wall Street's fear that chip production won't be sufficient — and sent STX down 6.9% today.

Nvidia drops ahead of earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) also closed lower today, falling 1.3% ahead of the AI chipmaker's Wednesday afternoon turn on the earnings calendar.

"We fully expect the leading supplier of AI silicon will again exceed estimates and guide above Street given continued positive data points through Q1 as well as 1) healthy 2026 AI infrastructure spend (that we believe likely continues through 2027), and 2) superior supply chain certainty in a period plagued by constraints," says Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson.

The real question, Bryson believes, is whether "we finally see a more positive stock reaction after a series of blasé moves following solid prints."

We're covering all the latest Nvidia news in our live earnings blog.

NextEra Energy drops on $67 billion M&A news

Utility stocks were also lower on Monday after news that NextEra Energy (NEE, -4.6%) will buy Dominion Energy (D, +9.4%) in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $67 billion.

If approved by regulators, the merger will create the country's largest electricity producer, serving 10 million customer accounts in Florida, the Carolinas and Virginia.

"If successful, the deal could result in one of the largest mergers in the power industry," says Mizuho Securities analyst Anthony Crowdell. "The acquisition would give NextEra access to the PJM [Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland] market, and potentially signals NextEra moving beyond renewables-heavy to include an all-form shop."

The transaction is expected to close in the next 12 to 18 months.

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Nvidia (NVDA) unveiled its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings after the close on May 20. The chipmaker's quarterly results have become one of the most-anticipated events on Wall Street given snowballing demand and accelerated spending on all things artificial intelligence.

Nvidia reported earnings of $1.87 per share on revenue of $81.62 billion vs a Wall Street forecast for EPS of $1.78 on revenue of $79.2 billion.

The Kiplinger team reported live on Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what the results could mean for you and your portfolio. Scroll for the latest updates.

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Nvidia stock trades lower to start earnings week

Nvidia stock opened higher Monday morning, but was last seen down 1.4%. The chip stock is still up more than 11% for the month to date, and has gained nearly 20% since the start of the year.

This comes as the broader equities market trades mixed at the start of the week, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1%, while the broader S&P 500 is off 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.6%.

Nvidia earnings are the "ultimate test" for the stock market, says Questar CIO

Nvidia's upcoming earnings event is "the ultimate test for a stock market that is not only trading at record highs, but one that also had a breathtaking bounce off of the March lows," says Richard Reyle, chief investment officer at Questar Capital Partners.

The chipmaker is the stock market's "shorthand for everything AI," he explains, and in recent years, equity "gains have been driven in large part by AI."

Heading into Wednesday's print, Reyle says the numbers are already expected to be strong given the massive spending on AI initiatives hyperscalers announced this earnings season.

But stellar earnings for the chipmaker don't mean upside for NVDA stock, the CIO warns. "To say that Nvidia is priced for perfection is an understatement."

Indeed, the blue chip stock is up roughly 20% for the year to date to trade near new highs.

As such, Reyle says to "be careful around Nvidia." In addition to a lot of hype around the stock, the CIO has "concerns about the circular spending in the AI space."

He prefers "companies that have true moats in the tech space, such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holding (ASML)," considering it will take at least a decade "for any other company to genuinely match their top-end manufacturing capability."

- Karee Venema

What time is Nvidia's earnings release?

Nvidia will release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes this Wednesday, May 20. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The release of Nvidia's earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.

Should Nvidia be worried about Cerebras' blockbuster IPO?

Last week, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) pulled off a massive IPO. The semiconductor firm sold shares at $185 each and they ended the first day of trading at $331.07, up 68% from this offer price.

Cerebras raised $5.55 billion in its offering — making it one of the biggest IPOs ever — and gave the company a staggering market capitalization of $95 billion.

Not bad for a company that was founded 10 years ago. Then again, it's a top developer of chips that train and operate AI models. The timing has also been spot on, as investors have an insatiable appetite for chip stocks.

Cerebras' most advanced semiconductor is called the Wafer Scale Engine 3. It is about 50 to 60 times the size of an Nvidia GPU die and has 4 trillion transistors and 900,000 AI cores. Cerebras says it's faster than Nvidia's offerings.

So is this a big threat to the semiconductor giant?

Perhaps. But for now, Cerebras is more focused on niche opportunities. It's not anywhere near the scale of Nvidia's chips. Cerebras' chips are also not as customizable.

Additionally, the competition intense, with startups such as Groq and SambaNova, and mature operators including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC). There are also the hyperscalers: Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google, Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Finally, CBRS' valuation is at nosebleed levels. While revenue surged 96% in the latest quarter, it was still only about $171 million.

All in all, expectations are extremely frothy for Cerebras.

- Tom Taulli

Does Nvidia pay a dividend?

Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.

Based on the chipmaker's current stock price, this works out to a dividend yield of 0.02%. By comparison, the S&P 500's current dividend yield is 1.1%.

In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.

- Karee Venema

Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks

Zacks' Brian Mulberry gives his take on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report

I had a chance to interview Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report. Here's what he had to say:

What are you expecting? Our EPS target is $1.51 on $67.38 billion in revenue. That said, the last earnings per share was a beat of 6.6%, making the "whisper number" more like $1.60 in earnings to really move the market.

What were some of the main events during the quarter? We recently heard that the H200 is now going to be made more widely available to Chinese firms, which should help bolster strong revenue growth. Also, demand for Blackwell in data centers is only picking up. Data center revenue was up 75% last quarter and likely to be similar this quarter.

What about the danger signs? The biggest concern would be that demand for compute falls off, and the commitments to build data centers would then fall off as well. There is no indication of that, but it is a risk that needs to be addressed, as it is the single largest source of growth for NVDA.

Secondly, several of the larger orders from hyperscalers are now being financed by issued debt. Google, AMZN, and META have all issued significant new debt over the past year to finance their data center builds. With pressure on free cash flow, it could put stress on future orders, especially if interest rates do not fall as much as expected.

What will investors be looking for in the report? Tough to get in the minds of retail investors, but we are looking for details that show us production targets are being met to satisfy the demand for products.

Also, innovation is key to growth. We're looking to see more about Vera Rubin and its progress, and finally, any comments around AI usage/demand structures impacting Nvidia's forward guidance to the Street.

- Tom Taulli

Hedge funds sold Nvidia stock in Q1

Nvidia shares underperformed the broader market in Q1, falling 6.5% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) vs the S&P 500's 4.3% drop.

During this December 31 through March 31 time frame, hedge funds were net sellers of Nvidia stock.

According to WhaleWisdom, 66 hedge funds initiated new positions in NVDA in Q1 and 402 increased their stakes. This compares to 66 that closed their positions and 363 that reduced their stakes.

The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to -126.6 million shares.

- Karee Venema

Read more: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks

Stocks close mixed to start Nvidia week

All three main indexes opened higher Monday, but only one was in positive territory at the close. Tech stocks were the biggest decliners as bond yields continued to climb, while energy stocks outperformed as oil prices jumped to their highest level since early April.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5% at 26,090 and the broader S&P 500 was off 0.07% at 7,403. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 49,686.

Nvidia (NVDA) also closed lower today, falling 1.3% ahead of Wednesday's earnings announcement.

"We fully expect the leading supplier of AI silicon will again exceed estimates and guide above Street given continued positive data points through Q1 as well as 1) healthy 2026 AI infrastructure spend (that we believe likely continues through 2027), and 2) superior supply chain certainty in a period plagued by constraints," says Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson.

The real question, Bryson believes, is whether "we finally see a more positive stock reaction after a series of blasé moves following solid prints."

Read more: Nasdaq Drops as Tech Stocks Slide: Stock Market Today

Nvidia is big, full stop

According to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Nvidia (NVDA) "is now estimated to be as much as 50% of the weight of the S&P performance."

In fact, the semiconductor stock means more to the S&P 500, which is weighted by market cap, than it does to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is weighted by price.

On Monday, NVDA closed at $222.32 with a market cap of $5.402 trillion, down from $225.32 and $5.475 trillion on Friday. That's a decline of $73 billion in market cap terms for the Dow Jones stock.

For a little bit of perspective, Florida-based NextEra Energy (NEE), already the biggest utility stock in the U.S., announced on Monday that it intends to buy Virginia-based Dominion Energy (D), overloaded by data center-driven demand, in an all-stock deal valued at $66.8 billion.

Indeed, that math, too, is all about artificial intelligence (AI) and what Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said is the most important industrial revolution in human history.

As Navellier also notes, Nvidia "now represents almost 16% of U.S. GDP and may rise to over 20% as the AI revolution continues."

NVDA stock was up 19.2% year to date through the closing bell on Monday vs 8.6% for the S&P 500 and 4.0% for the Dow. Its market cap was $4.533 trillion at the end of 2025.

For a little bit more perspective, Nvidia's year-to-date market-cap move is roughly equivalent to the absolute market cap for Walmart (WMT), the first retail stock to ever reach a trillion-dollar valuation. Walmart takes its place on the earnings calendar before the opening bell on Thursday.

As Navellier concludes about Nvidia's Wednesday evening earnings event, "A bullish outlook will be key to market support until the Iran situation is behind us."

– David Dittman

Nvidia is a top pick at Morgan Stanley ahead of earnings

Morgan Stanley analyst Joe Moore moved Nvidia to a top pick in March on expectations that the stock's technical struggles at the start of the year created an attractive entry point on a primary AI winner.

"It has taken time for investor enthusiasm to return to the story as secondary and tertiary AI beneficiaries continue to outperform," Moore says. And while he feels there's only so much Nvidia can do in its Q1 print and earnings call to ease longer-term worries, he believes "the quarter will be a positive step towards a stock rerating."

Moore expects solid data center revenue, but will be looking for commentary on supply constraints that include powered shell availability, leading-edge wafer capacity and DRAM.

"Nvidia should have the supply to cover much of what they intend to ship

over the next 18 months," he says, though rising costs associated with its Rubin launch could create a headwind down the road.

Still, Moore feels "that frontfootedness to secure supply puts Nvidia in an advantaged position vs the peer group as ASIC and merchant competition will either see greater margin headwinds or need to raise prices by more to offset those impacts."

– Karee Venema

CEO Jensen Huang says China will open up to U.S. chips

"The Chinese government has to decide how much of their local market do they want to protect," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday. "My sense is that, over time, the market will open."

Huang and several other CEOs of big U.S. companies traveled to China with President Donald Trump last week to talk about global trade.

Nvidia's chief said he didn't discuss his company's AI chips with Chinese officials. Somebody did, though. "President Trump had some conversations with the leaders, and I'm looking forward to what they decide."

Trump approved sales of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to Chinese companies in December, but Beijing continues to block purchases because it wants to prop up domestic chip maker Huawei Technologies.

Huang has said the Middle Kingdom represents a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia. And China will probably come up again when the CEO takes the mic during Nvidia's conference call on Wednesday evening.

– David Dittman

Nvidia bear is having dot-com flashbacks

As of Tuesday, 61 Wall Street analysts tracked by S&P Global Intelligence follow Nvidia (NVDA). Fifty-eight of them rate the stock a Buy. Two rate it a Hold. One Wall Street analyst says Nvidia stock is a Sell.

In fact, Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners says people are partying like it's 1999, and it's become a problem. “The word I hear a lot is parabolic. Just stock prices going straight up,” Goldberg told Marketplace last week.

The analyst said a six-week gain of more than 50% for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stirred flashbacks of the dot-com boom.

“Every time you start to hear people saying, ‘This time is different. This is a new economy,’" Goldberg explained, "I think it's right to sort of be cautious.”

Goldberg's Sell rating is accompanied by a $100 12-month target price. He told Bloomberg ahead of Nvidia's February earnings report that the stock wouldn't deliver much upside.

NVDA was up 13.7% from the closing bell on February 25, when it reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings, through May 18. The S&P 500 was up 6.9% for that period.

– David Dittman

Gabelli's John Belton: Nvidia's earnings could be 'amazingly boring' again

Gabelli Funds portfolio manager John Belton thinks Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings will be “amazingly boring as usual.” That is, the company has had a knack to beat expectations. And it should do so again after the closing bell on Wednesday.

Yet Wall Street is somewhat cautious, as semiconductor stocks have come under pressure during the past couple days.

Belton's thesis is that Nvidia will remain the main beneficiary of a massive AI capex spending boom, which could easily last a couple of years.

“Nvidia is now seeing a trillion-dollar order book, at least through 2027, starting in 2025, which was a significant increase from the guidance they gave in October,” said Belton. “It’ll be interesting to see if they update that again this time, but Nvidia isn’t talking about any slowdown in demand.”

For the AI revolutionary's earnings report, Belton's looking for a broadening customer base. The fact is that half the business comes from five mega-cap tech companies. He also wants to see progress in networking as well as standalone CPU racks. Then there's the impact from the Grok acquisition.

Finally, Belton wants to see a change in capital allocation. “They’re expected to generate well over a trillion dollars in free cash flow over the next couple of years,” he notes. “If half of that comes back to shareholders, that can start to meaningfully move the needle for the stock.”

– Tom Taulli

What would you have if you invested $1,000 in Nvidia 20 years ago?

Nvidia's share price has gone through some notable ups and downs over its 27 years as a publicly traded company, but its long-term trend has always been up and to the right.

Indeed, Nvidia has been one of the best stocks to own over that time frame and created more than $309 billion in shareholder value between January 1999 and December 2020, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Over the past two decades, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return of 37.1%. The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, returned an annualized 11.2% over the same period.

In dollar terms, a $1,000 investment in Nvidia 20 years ago would be worth more than $1 million today. That same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth $9,400.

– Karee Venema

Read more: If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today

Nvidia invests in a hot startup that can replace its chips

AI startup Decart recently announced a $300 million investment round at a $4 billion valuation. Radical Ventures led the funding, with participation from marquee VCs like Sequoia Capital and Benchmark.

Decart says it's "building the infrastructure layer for the next generation of low-latency AI systems." Its platform is called DOS, short for the Decart Optimization Stack.

DOS makes it much easier to switch hardware systems – say, from Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) – for AI models.

Decart claims its platform is 100 times more cost efficient and eight times faster than alternatives. And it's a full-stack system built specifically for real-time production.

Decart says it's been generating "significant revenue," primarily with AI labs and hyperscalars.

Another interesting nugget in the funding is that Nvidia is among the startup's early investors.

So why would they do this? After all, DOS can essentially weaken Nvidia's moat.

This is true. But as AI gets more sophisticated, there is a need to use different types of hardware for various use cases.

While Nvidia remains dominant, enterprises and hyperscalers increasingly want flexibility, lower costs and optimized performance across multiple systems.

Investing in Decart allows Nvidia to stay closely aligned with this shift while helping support the next generation of real-time AI infrastructure.

– Tom Taulli

Nvidia slips a day ahead of its earnings event

Stocks opened lower and drifted higher through the middle of the trading session on Tuesday, but all three main equity indexes faded into the closing bell as global bond yields continued to rise.

Investors, traders and speculators will turn their attention to Wednesday's post-closing-bell Nvidia (NVDA, -0.8%) earnings event to gauge the health of the market's major trend.

Nvidia "will help set the tone for a stock market that is in need of its next catalyst after an incredible run since the March lows," Granite Bay Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Paul Stanley writes.

As Stanley sees it, that "next catalyst" is critical now, with the market "a bit tired" after a recent strong run but also facing "renewed worries" about inflation and interest rates.

Both the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yield hit 52-week highs, reaching 5.197% and 4.687%, respectively, while the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.112% from 4.09% on Monday.

Meanwhile, the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract dipped 0.1% to $104.29.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8% at 25,870, the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.7% at 7,353, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.7% at 49,363.

– David Dittman

Read more: Stocks Struggle With Spiking Bond Yields: Stock Market Today

Nvidia set for a higher open ahead of Q1 results

Nvidia (NVDA) is signaling a higher open ahead on Wednesday, May 20, with shares up X% at last check.

Futures for the main indexes are also in the green this morning, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and broader S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.8% higher.

The Nvidia setup is compelling ahead of earnings, says GraniteShares CEO

Nvidia reports earnings after tonight's close and the stock's setup may be more compelling than the market realizes, says Will Rhind, founder and CEO of GraniteShares.

"While the company has become so dominant that beating Wall Street's estimates is almost taken for granted, tonight carries a genuinely new catalyst that hasn't been priced in: Jensen Huang arrives at the earnings call fresh from a trip to Beijing alongside President Trump, with China's $50 billion AI chip market technically reopened and the H200 cleared for sale, meaning any concrete timeline on deliveries would be pure upside to a consensus that currently assumes zero China revenue," he explains.

In addition, Rhind points to Nvidia's Blackwell ramp accelerating rather than slowing, hyperscalers continuing to increase AI capital expenditure commitments, and a next-generation Vera Rubin platform on track for delivery in the second half of the year.

This, the CEO says, is for a company "that Jensen himself believes will generate $1 trillion in revenue from its two flagship processor lines alone across 2026 and 2027."

Rhind feels that a post-earnings bear case "essentially requires multiple things to go wrong simultaneously," while the bull case "requires Jensen to do what he has done every single quarter of this cycle — deliver, and then raise."

- Karee Venema

The key for Nvidia investors is Blackwell, says XFUNDS CEO

"Nvidia must deliver because it has become the market’s AI scorecard," says David Nicholas, CEO and founder of XFUNDs by Nicholas Wealth.

While Nicholas expects the company's results and guidance to come in above the Street's estimates, he believes the bar is set extremely high and investors will demand more than an average beat.

"The key is Blackwell: if management confirms the ramp is on track and demand remains supply constrained, it validates the broader AI capex cycle," notes Nicholas. "Strong Rubin commentary would extend that confidence into the next product generation."

The CEO adds that NVDA stock is a buy ahead of earnings, but the AI bellwether "needs a big number and a stronger guide to satisfy Wall Street."

- Karee Venema

What should you do with all that appreciated NVDA stock?

Nvidia stock is up nearly 20% for the year to date, and that's modest compared to its longer-term returns. Indeed, NVDA has generated an average annual return of more than 70% over the past 10 years, easily outpacing the S&P 500's 13.9% total return (price change plus dividends).

So what's an investor to do with all of their appreciated Nvidia stock? We turned to Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, chief investment officer and Kiplinger contributor, for advice.

One option is to take the money and run. "Having a disproportionate share of your portfolio in any single stock — even one as incredibly successful as Nvidia — is risky," says Sizemore. "Selling or at least trimming the position little by little could be smart risk management."

But selling isn't the only route you could take. In this article, Sizemore shares a few other potential scenarios for Nvidia investors who have capitalized on the stock's impressive run.

Read more: I'm 55 With 10 Years Until Retirement, and I've Made $2 Million on Nvidia Stock. What Do I Do with It Now?

Futurum Group CEO sees Nvidia earnings as a referendum on the AI infrastructure cycle

Daniel Newman, CEO of the Futurum Group, sees Nvidia's Q1 earnings not as a referendum on this quarter, but as one on whether the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure cycle will keep compounding in fiscal 2028 and beyond.

"Wall Street has pulled itself above the company's own guide for the first time in this cycle, which raises the bar for what counts as a beat," Newman says. "Hyperscaler capex has been revised up to roughly $725 billion for 2026. Sovereign AI tripled to over $30 billion in fiscal 2026. Blackwell is in the meat of its ramp and Vera Rubin samples are already in customer hands."

There are four things Newman is watching for in Nvidia's print:

1. Q2 revenue guidance vs the Street's forecast for $86 billion. "That is the number that matters most. A guide in line or above tells you the AI capex cycle is still accelerating. A guide that lands at $83B to $85B will read as deceleration even on a clean Q1 beat."

2. The Blackwell to Rubin handoff. "The risk in any architecture transition is an air pocket where customers pause Blackwell orders to wait for Rubin. Nvidia's annual cadence is designed to prevent that, but the question on the call is whether Q3 and Q4 Blackwell shipments hold while Rubin ramps in H2 calendar 2026."

3. China and the H200 question. "Washington has cleared roughly 10 Chinese firms to buy H200 chips. Not a single shipment has gone out. Beijing has signaled to its own companies to wait. Jensen has publicly framed the China AI chip market at roughly $50 billion. Any language on the call about timing, framework, or unit economics for a China re-entry path is the single biggest variable for the stock. This is bigger than the headline revenue number."

4. Sovereign AI and customer concentration. "Sovereign AI crossed $30B in FY26, more than triple the prior year, and now represents roughly 14% of total revenue. This matters strategically because it is the cleanest hedge against hyperscaler concentration risk and custom silicon displacement."

"A clean $80B+ print is necessary, but it is not sufficient," concludes Newman. "The reaction function is in the Q2 guide: the gross margin trajectory through the Rubin handoff, and any language Jensen offers on China and the H200 reopening."

- Karee Venema

The market is pricing in a 5.5% post-earnings move for Nvidia stock

Nvidia stock's post-earnings price move isn't dictated by whether the chipmaker beats estimates, but rather by how much, says LPL Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist.

"Investors will be closely watching second quarter guidance, where revenue is expected to approach $87 billion," he adds. "Key areas of focus include data center demand and the ramp of the Blackwell and Rubin platforms, which management has previously suggested could generate $1 trillion in cumulative revenue from 2025 through 2027."

Turnquist says that gross margins will also be in focus as Wall Street looks for signs of increasing price pressures amid growing competition in the AI space.

"In terms of implied expectations [for NVDA stock], the options market is pricing in an approximate 5.5% post-earnings move on an absolute basis," notes Turnquist. "Based on yesterday's close of $220.61, that implies an expected trading range of roughly $208.48 to $232.74 following the earnings release."

But, he explains, "actual post-earnings moves can differ materially from implied option pricing, particularly given Nvidia's history of outsized reactions tied to guidance, margins, and AI demand commentary."

- Karee Venema

Nvidia stock trades higher ahead of its Q1 earnings announcement

With a little over three hours to go until tonight's earnings event, Nvidia stock is trading up 1.7% at last check.

The main indexes are also comfortably higher in early afternoon trading. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.0%, the broader S&P 500 has gained 0.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is enjoying a 1.1% lead.

- Karee Venema

What will Jensen Huang say about Nvidia and China?

Last week, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang joined President Donald Trump and other big-name C-suite executives at the last minute for a trip to the Middle Kingdom.

"Nvidia Goes to China" was a conscious effort to connect to the historic "Nixon goes to China" summit in February 1972.

Yesterday, I highlighted a Bloomberg interview where the Nvidia CEO expressed optimism that Chinese companies would be allowed to purchase Nvidia chips, eventually.

Noting that President Trump, and not he, engaged Chinese authorities on the issue, Huang concluded, "My sense is that, over time, the market will open."

Meanwhile, here's the Financial Times: "Beijing banned an Nvidia gaming chip while the company's chief executive Jensen Huang was visiting China with Donald Trump last week."

Indeed, as the FT notes, it's "the latest salvo in the superpowers' battle to dominate AI."

So that's one of the big questions I'll bring with me to the conference call this evening: What will CEO Jensen Huang say about Nvidia and China? (And what does "over time" mean?)

– David Dittman

Nvidia, the U.S. economy and a 'levered bet on AI'

Only hours before Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report earnings and just days after his bank helped close the biggest utility merger ever, Lazard CEO Peter Orszag told Bloomberg, "At this point, the U.S. economy is a levered bet on AI."

In fact, Lazard was the adviser for Florida-based NextEra Energy (NEE) on its $67 billion bid to acquire Virginia-based Dominion Energy (D) amid rising demand for power from data centers.

Big banks are also collecting fees from companies borrowing to build out their own artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The stock market is certainly enjoying an uplift from investors seeking exposure to AI. "If you look at the sources of growth in the U.S.," Orszag explained, "it is artificial intelligence and high-income consumers." Indeed, those consumers are benefitting from AI investments.

While the jury's still out on the technology's long-term impact, with projections ranging from 1% to 14% in terms of a GDP boost over the next decade, Morgan Stanley underscores Orszag's point.

"The global economy continues to expand," the bank writes in a midyear outlook, "helped by momentum in the U.S., where AI capital investment and resilient spending by wealthier consumers are driving growth."

– David Dittman

Nvidia beats estimates and boosts its dividend

Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings of $1.87 per share (+139.7% year over year) on revenue of $81.62 billion (+85.2%), as gross margin improved to 75.0% from 60.8% a year ago.

Wall Street expected EPS of $1.78 on revenue of $78.98 billion.

Management guided to second-quarter revenue of $91 billion, "plus or minus 2%." Gross margin will be 75.0%, "plus or minus 50 basis points," with opex of approximately $8.3 billion. Nvidia doesn't expect any data center revenue from China.

Nvidia also raised its quarterly dividend from 1 cent to 25 cents per share, and the board authorized an additional $80 billion in stock buybacks.

“The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed,” CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement announcing results. “Agentic AI has arrived, doing productive work, generating real value and scaling rapidly across companies and industries."

The CEO added that Nvidia is "the only platform that runs in every cloud, powers every frontier and open source model, and scales everywhere AI is produced — from hyperscale data centers to the edge.”

– David Dittman

Nvidia reports a new reporting structure

In addition to announcing expectations-beating top- and bottom-line results for its fiscal 2027 first quarter, Nvidia (NVDA) said on Wednesday it's "transitioning to a new reporting framework that better reflects its current and future growth drivers."

The AI revolutionary will have two segments: Data Center and Edge Computing. Data Center will include two sub-markets, Hyperscale and ACIE, "which incorporates AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise."

Edge Computing will include data processing for agentic and physical AI on devices including PCs, game consoles, workstations, AI-RAN base stations, robotics and automotive.

Data Center compute revenue grew by 77% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter to a company-record $60.4 billion. Data Center networking revenue was up 199% and 35%, respectively, to $14.8 billion.

– David Dittma

CFO Kress describes another 'exceptional' quarter for Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA) ended the regular trading session with a gain of 1.3%, but the stock was down about 0.6% a few minutes after 5 pm ET, as CFO Colette Kress dug into the details of another "exceptional" quarter.

With AI becoming a "necessity" for companies across sectors and industries, Nvidia posted its 14th straight quarter of sequential revenue growth.

Indeed, as Kress noted, Nvidia's market opportunity exceeds that of any other platform, with demand continuing to expand at "unprecedented" levels and the value of Nvidia infrastructure rising.

Its "vast ecosystem of installed base" positions it well for continuing growth around the world.

– David Dittman

No China data center compute revenue yet for Nvidia

CFO Colette Kress reiterated that Nvidia (NVDA) still isn't seeing any revenue from China, even though the U.S. has authorized shipments of its chips to Chinese customers.

Beijing continues to take active measures to protect its domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry, as detailed by the FT earlier today.

Jensen Huang clarifies dividend increase, reporting framework

CFO Colette Kress misspoke during Nvidia's conference call when she said the semiconductor stock raised its dividend from 1 cent per share to 20 cents.

It's actually 25 cents. "That five cents might mean a lot to our shareholders," CEO Jensen Huang jested as he took the mic to talk about Nvidia's quarter.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joe Moore wondered about the new reporting structure; Huang began his answer by clarifying the dividend math, then launched a long explanation for the new segments.

In short, it's hyperscale clouds. From there, it's acceleration for them as they serve clients.

And then there are "AI natives," which is another platform, pushing toward that "robotic edge," as Huang described it.

"It's the simplest way of understanding our business," Huang said. "Each has their own stack."

– David Dittman

Nvidia should grow 'faster than hyperscale capex'

"We should be growing faster than hyperscale capex," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said during the company's conference call. "They're at a trillion dollars this year, and I have every reason to believe that figure will grow from here.

"Compute is profit." The CEO says compute spend is pushing toward $3 trillion to $4 trillion for the hyperscalers.

What Huang describes as the "second" category of hundreds and eventually thousands of companies with "smaller installations" will continue to grow "at incredible pace."

"The second cluster is growing incredibly fast. Our share of that cluster is incredibly large."

Huang says this category is "poorly understood" relative to the hyperscalers.

– David Dittman

Nvidia stock narrows after-hours loss

"Vera-Rubin is off to a tremendous start," CEO Jensen Huang said of Nvidia's key inference infrastructure, noting significant growth driven by its new relationship with Anthropic.

NVDA was down 0.7% about 40 minutes into the call, the stock price rising as Huang explained the Vera-Rubin opportunity.

– David Dittman

Billions and billions of agents...

"The world has a billion users," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecast. "The world will have billions of agents."

And every agent is going to spin off sub-agents. That means more GPUs and CPUs.

"We're accelerating all of the world's tools and data processing," Huang said. "We're going to need a lot more CPUs. And Vera was designed to be an agentic CPU."

– David Dittman

The AI economy is a token economy

"We have to generate and process tokens as fast as possible," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says. That requires incredibly great storage, networks, CPUs, security...

"We've got it all covered," he said.

– David Dittman

Nvidia is all about the 'second category'

"I expect the second category to be bigger over time, but both are going to grow incredibly fast," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said of companies developing AI capabilities for industrial applications vs those tech companies spending to enhance user experience.

The former requires a higher level of sophistication, as Huang explained, and thus represents greater longer-term growth because of the infrastructure requirements to support the compute.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's next-gen chips to ship in Q3

CFO Colette Kress confirmed Vera-Rubin will ship during Nvidia's fiscal 2027 Q3 and will ramp in Q4.

"These are sophisticated systems to put together," the CFO said. "Q1 of next is certainly going to be very big as well."

– David Dittman

Nvidia sits at the center of everything AI

"Demand has gone parabolic. The reason is simple: Agentic AI has arrived," CEO Jensen Huang said in his closing remarks at the end of Nvidia's (NVDA) fiscal 2027 first-quarter conference call.

In this era, according to Huang, "Compute capacity is profits." The CEO provided five reasons Nvidia is particularly well positioned to maximize its own. According to Huang:

1. Nvidia is the only platform that runs every AI model.

2. Nvidia is in every hyperscale cloud.

3. Nvidia's complete stack and vast ecosystem support all kinds of customers. (This is "the second category.")

4. Nvidia extends all the way to the edge, to physical AI. (This is the third segment.)

5. Vera is the first CPU purpose-built for agentic AI. And it's the first step toward a multitrillion-dollar total addressable market.

"The world is rebuilding computing for agentic AI and robotic AI," Huang said. "And Nvidia sits at the center of it all."

Then the leader of the AI revolution concluded the call: "Look forward to catching up next time."

– David Dittman

Nvidia opens lower after Q1 results

Nvidia (NVDA) stock opened lower on Thursday, down 0.5% at last check, even after the chipmaker's Q1 results and Q2 guidance came in higher than expected.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, says this was just "a garden variety beat — a better than expected top and bottom line with guidance above the Street estimate — and one that was well telegraphed following the very strong results from AI-hyperscalers earlier in the earnings season. "

- Karee Venema

Nvidia's $80 billion buyback signals a new phase for the AI giant

As was no surprise, Nvidia posted another standout quarterly report. Sales spiked by 85% to $81.6 billion, ahead of the Street's $78.9 billion consensus. Net income came in at $58.3 billion, compared to analysts' estimate of $42.9 billion.

Yet investors wanted even more, with Nvidia shares down 0.9% at last check in Thursday's session.

Perhaps one of the reasons for this reaction is that Nvidia is actually looking more like a value stock. After all, the company announced an $80 billion stock buyback and a one penny increase to the dividend payout. Nvidia expects to return about half of its free cash flows to shareholders in 2026.

In the meantime, the momentum in the chip sector is primarily with players in storage as well as those that develop CPUs, including Intel.

This also signals more competitive pressures. Mega customers such as Google, Meta and Microsoft are investing heavily in developing their own chips.

Many startups are raising substantial amounts of capital. For instance, AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems last week pulled off a $5.55 billion IPO.

But of course, Nvidia has huge amounts of capital to focus on the growth engine. The company is investing more in inference capabilities, which involve delivering AI services. A big part of this is with the acquisition of Groq's assets for $20 billion. Then there are the Vera CPUs.

And as Nvidia continues to grow at a rapid pace, the valuation on the company’s shares continues to get more compelling.

"There could be a trillion dollars of free cash returned to shareholders over the next four to five years," says John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. "So, that is part of the story for a stock that's trading at sub-20 P/E, or basically a market multiple, that becomes important."

- Tom Taulli

Nvidia closes lower after earnings

Despite its Q1 beat and stronger-than-anticipated guidance, Nvidia closed Thursday down 1.8%. Wall Street doesn't seem overly worried, though.

Speaking for the bulls is Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. "NVDA remains well-positioned on top of the AI mountain as the infrastructure buildout accelerates," he writes in a post-earnings note. "There is one company that is the foundation for the AI Revolution and that is Nvidia with the Godfather of AI Jensen having the best perch and vantage point to discuss overall enterprise AI demand and the appetite for Nvidia's AI chips looking forward."

Ives has an Outperform (Buy) rating on NVDA and a $300 price target, representing implied upside of 37% to current levels.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia (NVDA) is the most valuable publicly traded company in the world, thanks to insatiable demand for the semiconductor company's artificial intelligence (AI) chips.

The company is so important that its quarterly earnings reports are often seen as an indicator for the global AI market. With its next earnings event right around the corner, we decided to test your Nvidia knowledge with this quick quiz.

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Stocks closed lower Friday as market participants took profits on red-hot tech stocks. Still, all three main indexes were higher on the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notching their seventh straight weekly wins and the Dow Jones Industrial Average bringing its weekly win streak to three.

Treasury yields spiked heading into the weekend, which didn't help the equity market either. The yield on the 2-year Treasury jumped 8.7 basis points to 4.079% and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 14.2 basis points to 4.601%. It's the highest level for both in nearly a year.

"A bear-steepening yield surge is igniting turbulence on Wall Street as investors lift inflation expectations amid price pressure readings from around the world that are way too hot," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. "The continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, amid oil prices remaining well above $100, is straining the fixed-income complex, as there's no light at the end of the geopolitical tunnel."

Torres adds that many folks were hoping for a breakthrough from this week's meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, "but a lack of progress on the conflict has folks throwing in their towels as it relates to the possibility for lighter interest rates."

Indeed, CME Group FedWatch now shows futures traders have given up on rate cuts in 2026 and are now pricing in a possible quarter-point rate hike by the end of this year.

As for the stock market, the S&P 500 shed 1.2% to end at 7,408, the Nasdaq slumped 1.5% to 26,225 and the Dow gave back 1.1% to 49,526.

Tech stocks get hit by profit-taking

Several of this week's highfliers finished in the red Friday, including Intel (INTC, -6.2%), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -5.7%) and Micron Technology (MU, -6.6%). And artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker Cerebras (CBRS), which soared Thursday following its blockbuster IPO, slumped 10.1%.

Nvidia (NVDA) ended lower, too, falling 4.4% ahead of its turn on the earnings calendar, slated for after Wednesday's close.

The company "heads into next week's results with expectations already running hot," says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Consensus estimates are near the top end of guidance, "but as is often the case with Nvidia, the market will likely be looking for more than just a clean beat. The scale of any upside surprise will matter."

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Britzman adds that Wall Street will be watching for commentary on the Vera Rubin roadmap, given recent rumors of a potential one-month delay to deliveries. "In isolation, that would be relatively small, but investors will not want to see anything that suggests a more material pushback for Nvidia's next major product cycle."

Bill Ackman's big Microsoft bet

Microsoft (MSFT) bucked the bearish trend, rising 3.1% after Bill Ackman said in an X post on Friday that Pershing Square has initiated a stake in the tech giant.

Pershing began building its position in February, according to Ackman, and the details on the size of the position will be released later today in regulatory filings.

Microsoft is "a company we have followed for many years now offered at a highly compelling valuation," the hedge fund manager explained, and the blue chip stock is now a "core holding."

MSFT has been one of the worst Dow Jones stocks of the year, down X% so far, but Ackman believes Wall Street is underestimating "the resilience" of the company's Microsoft 365 subscription suite and OpenAI investment.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate Thursday, boosted by another big day of gains for mega-cap tech stocks and a red-hot initial public offering (IPO). Market participants also cheered encouraging headlines from China, where President Donald Trump and his entourage of CEOs traveled for a two-day summit with President Xi Jinping to discuss trade, tariffs and the war in Iran.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.8% at 50,063. The broader S&P 500 added 0.8% to 7,501 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 26,635 — new all-time highs.

A well-received earnings report from Cisco Systems (CSCO) created tailwinds for all three indexes, with the Dow Jones stock soaring 13.4% after its results, its best day since 2020.

For the three months ending April 25, Cisco reported earnings of $1.06 per share, up 10% year over year, on revenue of $15.8 billion (+12% YoY). Analysts expected Cisco to report earnings of $1.04 per share on revenue of $15.6 billion.

The company also said that artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and hyperscaler orders have totaled $5.3 billion so far this year and it now expects orders for its fiscal year to reach $9 billion. It previously forecast $5 billion in orders for the full fiscal year.

"We view the AI cycle as durable for the foreseeable future and expect sustained strong orders and accelerating revenue to drive further stock appreciation," says BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani, who reiterated a Buy rating on the blue chip stock and raised his price target to $114 from $95.

Separately, CEO Chuck Robbins wrote in a blog post that Cisco will reduce its workforce by roughly 4,000 positions in fiscal Q4.

Cerebras stock soars in market debut

The IPO market has gotten off to a slow start in 2026 amid private-equity concerns, worries over an AI bubble, and geopolitical uncertainty.

But if today's market debut from AI infrastructure firm Cerebras (CBRS) is any clue, things are looking up.

Cerebras priced its offering at $185 per share last night, above the high end of its upwardly revised range. Based on the 30 million shares of common CBRS stock it offered, the AI company raised $5.55 billion in its offering, making it not only one of the biggest IPOs of the year but one of the largest U.S. IPOs ever.

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CBRS stock opened today at $350, reached an intraday high of $385 and closed at $311.07.

Nvidia emerges as a big winner in the Trump-Xi talks

Nvidia (NVDA) was another big gainer on Thursday, rising 4.4% as CEO Jensen Huang participated in President Trump's summit with President Xi.

According to Reuters, the U.S. will allow roughly 10 Chinese firms — including Alibaba (BABA, -3.2%) and JD.com (JD, -2.7%) — to buy Nvidia's H200, its second-most powerful AI chip, though no deliveries have been made so far.

Nvidia once made up roughly 95% of China's advanced chip market share, but this has since dropped to near zero due to the U.S. implementing export controls and China's decision to reduce its reliance on foreign chips.

Wall Street will look to the AI bellwether's big earnings event after next Wednesday's close for any color on potential China sales.

The company "heads into next week's results with expectations already running hot," says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Consensus estimates are near the top end of guidance, "but as is often the case with Nvidia, the market will likely be looking for more than just a clean beat. The scale of any upside surprise will matter, so don't be surprised if they land somewhere closer to $81.4 billion [in total sales]."

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More hot inflation data meant a cold open for stocks, but optimism about the long-term potential of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution and the near-term promise of a U.S.-China summit lifted two of the three main equity indexes into the green on Wednesday.

A day after the April CPI report showed consumer prices rose at their fastest rate since 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the quickest pace of increase for producer prices since 2022. According to the BLS, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 1.4% in April, accelerating from 0.7% in March and above a consensus forecast of 0.5%. PPI was up 6.0% on an annualized basis. Core PPI was up 1.0% month over month, topping an estimate of 0.4%.

"Today's report suggests that while the move higher in prices received by producers is primarily being driven by energy," William Blair economist Richard de Chazal observes, "we are also seeing a broader increase across other core components of the inflation basket." As de Chazal notes, energy prices rose 7.8% because of the war in Iran.

Semiconductor prices are also moving higher due to elevated demand, as well as capacity constraints unrelated to the Strait of Hormuz. "If semiconductors are now the 'new oil' — in the sense that they are a critical input into a wide range of goods — this is a concerning development for central bankers and limits their ability to look through the energy spike as a one-off shock," the economist concludes.

Meanwhile, the Senate voted to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, with Jerome Powell's term set to expire. The Senate approved Warsh for a seat on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors on Tuesday.

Warsh will be challenged to fulfill Trump's wish for lower interest rates following a better-than-expected April jobs report and this week's hot inflation data. But there are three things Warsh can do to change the Fed.

Nvidia goes to China

Nvidia (NVDA, +2.3%) CEO Jensen Huang is among the C-suite executives who traveled with President Donald Trump to China for a summit with President Xi Jinping this week for discussions that will include major issues such as the ongoing war in the Middle East and the global semiconductor market.

Tesla (TSLA, +2.7%) CEO Elon Musk is also in China with the president, as the market prepares for a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) that looks like it'll rocket past all previous similar capital-raising ventures.

Alphabet (GOOGL, +3.9%) CEO Sundar Pichai isn't in China with Trump, but the search giant's share price is seeing some upside based on its approximately 6% stake in SpaceX.

Indeed, Alphabet has surpassed Apple (AAPL, +1.4%) for the No. 2 spot in the global market cap rankings, though outgoing CEO Tim Cook is aboard for what looks like his last foreign junket.

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Boeing (BA, +1.6%) is getting a boost on hope CEO Kelly Ortberg can close a deal to sell as many as 500 737 Max aircraft to the Middle Kingdom, with a little help from the White House.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.2% at 26,402, and the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.6% to 7,444, but the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1% at 49,693.

MMM stock has good optics

In addition to declaring its quarterly payout and underscoring its standing as a blue-chip dividend-paying stock, 3M (MMM, +2.7%) has joined a group of tech companies to collaborate on "open, interoperable specifications for expanded beam optical (EBO) connectivity in AI infrastructure."

According to 3M, "Expanded beam optical technology is increasingly seen as a critical enabler for AI infrastructure, offering advantages in reliability, ease of maintenance, and performance in high-density environments."

AI hyperscalers Meta Platforms (META, +2.3%) and Oracle (ORCL, +4.7%), as well as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -0.6%) and Cisco Systems (CSCO, +2.6%), are among the parties signed on to the multi-source agreement (MSA).

3M will pay a quarterly dividend of 78 cents per share on June 12. That payout is up 6.8% from 73 cents a year ago. The company has paid dividends to its shareholders without interruption for more than 100 years.

NXT is making data from the Sun

Nextpower (NXT, +8.8%) surged to a new all-time high after management of the industrial stock reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings and raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance.

Nextpower makes software that helps utility-scale solar projects track the Sun during its daily transit and optimize electricity generation. And its backlog has grown to more than $5 billion due to rising demand for power from data centers.

"We view this quarter as another solid proof point of NXT's diversification strategy," Susquehanna analysts Charles Minervino and Eric Clay write, "as it continues to get more traction on its bundled offerings and expands its product portfolio through its 'everything but the panel' approach."

The analysts reiterated their Positive (Buy) rating and raised their 12-month target price for NXT from $136 to $161 on more backlog growth in 2026, "particularly as the company rolls out more verti

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All three main equity indexes opened lower after the hottest consumer inflation report since May 2023 seemed to burn all hope for lower interest rates anytime soon. But blue chip stocks lifted the oldest of the benchmarks into the green late in a generally "risk-off" trading session.

The April CPI report showed the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month over month and 3.8% year over year. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, was up 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2.8% annually. The energy index was up 3.8% in April, accounting for more than 40% of the headline CPI acceleration, and increased by 17.9% compared to April 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

At the same time, the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract was up 4.3% to $102.27 per barrel. WTI is up 60.6% from where it was a year ago and 52.6% since the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran began on February 28.

Meanwhile, the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh for a seat on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, further clearing the way for President Donald Trump's nominee to replace outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. Following a better-than-expected April jobs report, accelerating inflation rather than stagnating employment is shaping up to be the Fed's initial priority in a Warsh regime.

Energy stocks were among six of 11 sectors in positive territory on Tuesday, with healthcare and consumer staples stocks up 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively, and financial stocks also posting solid gains.

Semiconductor stocks sold off, with Intel (INTC, -6.8%) and Micron Technology (MU, -3.6%) falling hard amid triple-digit runs so far this year. Walmart (WMT, +2.2%) and blue-chip dividend stocks UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +3.1%), and Coca-Cola (KO, +1.8%) caught significant bids.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.1% at 49,760, but the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.2% at 7,400, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had declined 0.7% to 26,088.

CAT dragged on the Dow

Caterpillar (CAT, -1.5%) was one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks on Tuesday after it featured prominently in a Bloomberg story about stretched valuations for names tied to artificial intelligence.

The heavy equipment maker had behaved more like a hot tech stock than even the leader of the AI revolution so far in 2026, with a year-to-date gain of 62.5% through Monday compared to 60% for the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH, -2.6%) and 17.7% for Nvidia (NVDA, +0.6%).

According to Renaissance Macro Research, CAT and other industrial stocks such as Vertiv Holdings (VRT, -0.2%), Eaton (ETN, -4.2%) and Cummins (CMI, +0.3%) are more than 60% correlated to SMH.

"These are not tech stocks," Renaissance Macro Head of Research Neil Dutta told Bloomberg. "They trade like tech stocks because their order books have become AI capex order books."

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As Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann observes, Caterpillar reported a 32% increase in sales of large generators and turbines and sequential order backlog expansion of $12 billion for the first quarter.

Management also boosted its full-year revenue guidance to low double-digit growth because of strong nonresidential construction driven by the data center and AI infrastructure buildout.

Quantum computing stocks are all over the place

Quantum Computing (QUBT) was up 15.7%, but D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) was down 7% — a share-price "superpositioning" that oversimplifies yet illustrates one of the key ideas you'll want to understand if you're researching ways to invest in quantum computing.

According to Microsoft (MSFT, -1.2%), "Superposition is a fundamental concept in quantum mechanics, describing the condition in which a quantum system can exist in multiple states or configurations simultaneously."

Quantum Computing, better known as QCi, rallied after management reported first-quarter revenue of $3.69 million, up from $39,000 a year ago and ahead of a Wall Street estimate of $3.13 million.

D-Wave, on the other hand, sold off after management reported a first-quarter revenue decline of 80.9% to $2.9 million. D-Wave recorded a single large sale that boosted last year's top line, but Wall Street expected to see $4.2 million.

"The potential of quantum computing is enormous," Kiplinger contributor Tom Taulli writes, with the potential to create hundreds of billions of dollars in economic value over the next decade-plus.

In the meantime, however, quantum stocks are likely to be all over the place.

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Not even blue-chip strength could lift the oldest of the three main U.S. equity indexes into the green on Tuesday, and technology dragged on the relative newcomers amid questions about the durability of the market's major trend. A big earnings season is unfolding, the April Fed meeting is underway, and the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz is unresolved.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% at 49,136, the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.5% to 7,138 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.9% to 24,663.

That's despite good fundamentals. "We have a quarter of S&P 500 companies' reports in so far," Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown observes about the earnings calendar. And we're seeing the sixth consecutive earnings season of double-digit profit growth.

"It's not accounting tricks. Revenue is higher for all 11 sectors." As Brown notes, "American Express (AXP, -1.2%) says cardholders under 45 are spending more than ever. Gas prices and AI displacement fears are not a thing."

Indeed, the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 3.7% to $99.92 per barrel after the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1. The front-month Brent crude oil futures contract, the international benchmark, was up 2.7% to $104.42.

WTI is up 49.1% and Brent is up 44.1% since the start of the war in the Middle East between the U.S., Israel and Iran, as investors, traders and speculators, as well as consumers, continue to absorb the energy shock.

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell has convened his final FOMC meeting as Fed chair and will host his final press conference on Wednesday, the highlight of this week's economic calendar.

You can track news and developments around the April Fed meeting on our live blog.

OpenAI misses revenue, user targets

OpenAI is only in the planning stages for an initial public offering (IPO), but markets are still captivated by its numbers.

In fact, tech stocks generally and names connected to the AI revolution specifically sold off on Tuesday after The Wall Street Journal reported that the privately held research and deployment company has missed recent revenue and user targets and has insiders wondering whether it can meet its spending commitments.

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"Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn't grow fast enough," the WSJ said, citing "people familiar with the matter."

Companies with particular exposure to OpenAI, including Oracle (ORCL, -4.1%) and CoreWeave (CRWV, -5.8%), fell hard. Semiconductor stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -3.4%), Broadcom (AVGO, -4.4%) and Intel (INTC, -0.5%) slid on broader fears of ebbing demand for AI-related infrastructure.

Nvidia (NVDA) was down as much as 3.9%. The leader of the AI revolution is scheduled to report fiscal 2027 first-quarter results after the closing bell on May 20.

Five other Magnificent 7 stocks – Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.2%), Amazon.com (AMZN, -0.5%), Meta Platforms (META, -1.1%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +1.0%) and Apple (AAPL, +1.2%) – are on this week's earnings calendar.

Have a Coke and a smile

Coca-Cola (KO, +3.9%) was No. 1 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks on Tuesday after management of the iconic beverage maker reported better-than-expected first-quarter results.

Coke posted earnings of 86 cents per share (+17.8% year over year) on revenue of $12.5 billion (+12.1% YoY) vs a Wall Street forecast for EPS of 81 cents on revenue of $12.2 billion. Management reiterated guidance for full-year EPS growth of 8% to 9% on organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%.

The blue-chip dividend stock generated free cash flow of $1.8 billion for the quarter, validating management's move in February to increase Coca-Cola's dividend for the 64th straight year.

New CEO Henrique Braun, who assumed his role on March 31, said Coke's performance reflects an "unwavering focus on staying close to the consumer," noting "there's so much more we can do as we navigate a dynamic environment."

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The leader of the AI revolution approached a new peak on Friday, and two of the three main U.S. equity indexes posted fresh all-time highs during a risk-on yet mixed-up stock market rally. Crude oil prices declined amid relative quiet on the Middle East front.

Nvidia (NVDA, +4.3%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock and closed within a couple of dollars of a new high, even as the industrial average was alone among the main indexes in the red for the day. NVDA, which traded at $212.19 intraday on October 29, changed hands at a high of $210.95 today.

Intel (INTC, 23.6%) was actually the top-performing semiconductor stock, after management reported expectations-beating first-quarter revenue and earnings and CEO Lip-Bu Tan cited "clear signs that the CPU is reasserting itself as the indispensable foundation of the AI era" during the company's earnings call.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by 1.2% to $94.70 per barrel. For the week, WTI was higher by 12.9%. Energy was among six of 11 sectors to close in the red, as oil prices continue to shake the market.

"The market has treated domestic policy and geopolitical shocks over the past year, including 'Liberation Day' in 2025 and the Middle East this year, almost like pop-up ads in a longer-winding movie focused on AI and a resilient economy," observes Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley's wealth management market research and strategy team.

Skelly says comparisons to geopolitical and energy shocks of 2022 "and concerns about a bear market" are misplaced. "One difference is today's positive earnings setup, and with five of the Magnificent 7 stocks about to release their numbers, we're entering a pivotal stretch of reporting season."

Indeed, Alphabet (GOOGL, +1.6%), Amazon.com (AMZN, +3.5%), Meta Platforms (META, +2.4%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +2.1%) are on the earnings calendar after the closing bell on Wednesday. Apple (AAPL, -0.9%) is scheduled to report after the closing bell on Thursday.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% on Friday at 49,230, and Papa Dow was down 0.4% for the week. The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.8% to 7,165, and the index finished with a weekly gain of 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.6% to end the week up 1.5% at 24,836.

Ives eyes Oracle

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of Oracle (ORCL) with an Outperform (Buy) rating and a 12-month target price of $225, but the blue chip stock was down 1.7% anyway, despite a "secret sauce" infrastructure-and-data strategy.

"We believe Oracle is on a path to become a foundational infrastructure provider for the AI Revolution," Ives writes, "and the market is fundamentally misinterpreting the company’s aggressive, contract-backed investment cycle as speculative risk."

According to Ives, Oracle is "leveraging its decades of expertise" as a database and enterprise software leader "to build a highly differentiated, next-generation cloud that is winning over the world’s most demanding AI workloads."

Can Kevin Warsh cut interest rates now?

With the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh underway and a Justice Department investigation of the central bank resolved, Jerome Powell will take the lead for what is presumably his final FOMC meeting and press conference as Fed chair, the highlight of next week's economic calendar.

In a post on X shortly after 10 am Eastern Standard Time, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said she has directed her office to close its investigation of Powell and the Fed for cost overruns on a project to renovate its historic buildings in Washington, D.C.

According to Pirro, "The Inspector General for the Federal Reserve has been asked to scrutinize the building costs overruns – in the billions of dollars – that have been borne by taxpayers."

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As Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal notes, "Powell already asked the Fed's inspector general to review the building project in July, and that work is ongoing. The IG published findings of an earlier audit of the renovations in 2021."

Nevertheless, Pirro's move appears to clear the way for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) to vote "yes" on President Donald Trump's nominee to replace Powell as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

"You have extraordinary credentials," Tillis said to Warsh during his questioning of the nominee on Tuesday. "They’re impeccable. Let’s get rid of this investigation, so I can support your confirmation."

CME FedWatch now reflects a 61.4% probability the central bank holds interest rates steady through the end of the year vs 75.9% on Thursday. The target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50% to 3.75%.

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The International Energy Agency said it would release 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves, but markets remain concerned about pressures on supplies for what remains one of the world's most important economic inputs.

"The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size," International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Oil markets are global so the response to major disruptions needs to be global too."

As the IEA notes, its planned release is the sixth since its founding in 1974, with similar moves in 1991, 2005 and 2011, and two in 2022 amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France and the U.K. will also release barrels of oil to help alleviate supply shortages as the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continues to constrict Persian Gulf shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The front-month crude oil futures contract traded up to $88.99 per barrel from $83.45 on Tuesday, and closed 4.6% higher at $87.25. Energy led to the upside on Wednesday, with Chevron (CVX) rising 3% to pace the 30 Dow Jones stocks.

"Despite the prospect of releasing oil reserves, continued uncertainty translates into continued upside risk for oil prices," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner observes, "and that translates into a Fed that will remain cautious about cutting interest rates."

Tech stocks were higher for most of the trading session, too, as Nvidia (NVDA, +0.7%) held a solid gain. Financial stocks continue to struggle with questions about potential contagions in private markets.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by 0.08% at 22,716. But the broad-based S&P 500 was lower by 0.08% at 6,775, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 0.6% to 47,417.

Incoming inflation data

A tame February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report "would probably be a welcome data point on any other day," Zentner writes, "but against the current backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and surging oil prices, it may not carry as much weight in the markets – or with the Fed."

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said headline CPI increased 0.3% in February vs 0.2% in January. CPI increased by 2.4% year over year again. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year, both figures in line with January data.

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Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are more concerned about "full employment" in the aftermath of a weak February jobs report. Others are focused on inflation as oil prices spike. And just about everybody is worried about stagflation.

Meanwhile, CME Group FedWatch reflects a 99.4% probability that the target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50% to 3.75% at the conclusion of the next Fed meeting.

ORCL is up on the cloud

Oracle (ORCL, +9.2%) posted the biggest gain among S&P 500 stocks and added about $40 billion to its market cap after management reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 third-quarter results.

Total revenue was up 22% to $17.2 billion, driven by 44% growth for Oracle's cloud segment to $8.9 billion. The cloud infrastructure unit grew by 84%, while cloud software sales were up 13%. Software, hardware and services sales were up a combined 4%.

"ORCL remains a rare software name showing business acceleration, robust cloud infrastructure growth, and durable 20%+ top- and bottom-line growth," Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz writes.

The analyst reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for ORCL to $210 from $180, noting that "Oracle's business should be more resilient" compared to other software stocks.

BNTX bounces back big

BioNTech (BNTX, +8.3%) fell 17.9% on Tuesday during its worst trading day since March 2020 after the health care stock reported fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that fell short of expectations.

BioNTech also announced that its co-founders, CEO Ugur Sahin and Chief Medical Officer Ozlem Tureci, are departing the company they founded in 2008 for a new startup venture focused on messenger RNA, the technology the married couple used to develop their COVID-19 vaccine.

According to Truist analyst Asthika Goonewardene, who reiterated his Buy rating and his 12-month target price of $155 for BNTX, the startup "will focus on next-generation mRNA innovation, likely centered on the earlier-stage AI-enabled platform technologies BNTX discussed at its October 2025 AI Day."

At the same time, the analyst sees the move "as a positive for BNTX, as it could reduce spending on very early-stage platform and product work while allowing BNTX to remain focused on late-stage clinical development and commercial execution."

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The price of crude oil approached $120 per barrel early Monday as the war in the Middle East between the U.S., Israel and Iran raged through the weekend. Approximately 20% of the world's oil production must transit the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by the Islamic Republic, to reach global markets. The prospect of an energy supply shock plus a weakening employment situation has investors, traders and speculators on full alert for stagflation.

The front-month crude oil futures contract traded to a nearly four-year high of $119.48 per barrel vs the 16-year high of $130.50 in March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the all-time high of $147.27 in July 2008, when a combination of rising geopolitical tensions, a spike in Asian demand and a weak dollar "supersized the bid in the barrel," Mizuho Securities Director of Futures Bob Yawger notes.

That's after the February jobs report on Friday showed a surprise decline in payrolls and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 4.3% to close at $94.77.

"Traders have been giving more weight to the potential for higher inflation and dented economic growth," BMO Private Wealth Chief Market Strategist Carol Schleif writes, "but we remind investors that such stagflationary concerns were also raised in 2023 and stocks have performed remarkably well since that period."

Conflict in the Middle East "makes the Federal Reserve's job much more difficult," Schleif concedes, particularly with a new Fed chair expected this year. (President Donald Trump last week officially nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair when his term is up in May.)

"The Fed has historically looked through temporary oil-induced inflation shocks," Schleif observes, "but is also dealing with conflicting employment and growth data as the economy's very foundation is rebuilt amid the transition to a suite of new technologies."

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Tech leads

Technology led another recovery off intraday lows, with Nvidia (NVDA, +2.7%) posting the second-biggest gain among the 30 Dow Jones stocks, trailing only Caterpillar (CAT, +3.5%).

Energy stocks continued to show relative strength until the last hour of the trading session, with integrated supermajors Chevron (CVX, -0.3%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, -0.5%) poised to benefit from higher oil prices, at least in the short term.

Consumer staples, including Procter & Gamble (PG, +1.0%) and Coca-Cola (KO, +1.1%), and other names with characteristics of defensive stocks, such as McDonald's (MCD, +0.8%) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, +0.9%), also posted gains.

Financial stocks struggled for much of the session, though Goldman Sachs (GS, +1.3%), American Express (AXP, +1.5%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +0.2%) rallied late to close higher.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) surged to 35.30 as crude futures were spiking but settled to 25.47 vs 29.49 as of Friday. A normal range for the stock market's "fear index" is between 12 and 20.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by 1.4% at 22,695, the broad-based S&P 500 had climbed 0.8% to 6,795, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 47,740.

Look at HIMS

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS, +40.9%) rallied after management announced that Novo Nordisk (NVO, +3.2%) has agreed to sell its weight loss drugs on the wellness outfit's platform. The momentum stock had lost more than 56% over the trailing 12 months through Friday, March 6.

As part of the deal to bring Ozempic and Wegovy pills and injections to the HIMS platform later this month, Novo Nordisk has also agreed to dismiss its lawsuit against Hims & Hers.

"The dynamic between the two companies is entering a new chapter," Truist analyst Jailendra Singh writes. "The rapid cycle of litigation followed by reconciliation underscores that, while both parties lack trust, they remain bound by mutual necessity." Singh reiterated his Hold rating and his $18 12-month target price for HIMS stock.

"Revenue durability from branded GLP-1 medications is likely to be meaningfully higher than that of compounded GLP-1 offerings," the analyst explains, "suggesting investors may be willing to assign greater value (and a higher multiple) to this new revenue and earnings stream."

LITE it up

Lumentum Holdings (LITE, +14.7%), one of the best tech stocks to buy right now, is joining the S&P 500.

Lumentum, which makes optical and photonic products for high-speed networking, data center interconnects and laser technology for AI, 3D and other industrial applications, will be one of four new additions to the index (pdf) as of March 23.

Network materials maker Coherent (COHR, +7.1%), digital set-top-box outfit EchoStar (SATS, +3.5%), data-center designer Vertiv Holdings (VRT, +9.4%) and LITE are joining the S&P 500.

Those four will replace potato products producer Lamb Weston (LW, -0.6%), online dating service Match Group (MTCH, +2.1%), health care manager Molina Healthcare (MOH, +1.1%) and cloud-based HR platform Paycom Software (PAYC, +0.5%) in the 503-stock index.

CPI, PCE and the Fed

Markets will weigh inflation vs employment through the next Fed meeting, which is scheduled for March 17-18.

The release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday and the January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Friday highlight this week's economic calendar. We'll also get consumers' first impressions of the war in Iran.

"The February CPI report will likely run cool as tame housing costs offset the effects of tariffs," Comerica Bank Chief Economist Bill Adams forecast. "The January PCE inflation report likely ran hotter." As Adams explains, "These inflation reports cover the period before the war with Iran, so they do not reflect its effects." And, of course, the Fed prefers PCE over CPI as a measure of inflation.

As the economist notes, the release of preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey data for March on Friday will reflect the war: "Sentiment likely retreated from February as the headlines and rising gas prices pushed inflation expectations higher."

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Late dip-buying pulled technology and consumer discretionary into positive territory with energy, but all the other stock market sectors were down after crude oil prices surged to 52-week highs on reports Iran attacked a tanker in the Persian Gulf. Investors, traders and speculators will now look forward to Jobs Friday and what the employment situation says about interest rates amid persistent inflation anxiety.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked as high as 25.84 from 21.15 on Wednesday as a volatile week on Wall Street continues. A normal range for the stock market's "fear index" is between 12 and 20.

"Iran doesn't need to sink a single U.S. warship," BCA Research Chief Strategist Dhaval Joshi observes. "It could inflict much more damage by sinking the U.S. stock and bond markets by disrupting shipping, trade, and oil tankers with decentralised low-tech drone warfare."

Although the Islamic Republic has apparently demonstrated its intent and its capability on this front, as Joshi sees it, "The 12-month investment call will be dominated not by Iran, but by the evolution of AI in the economy, and its fallout in the financial markets."

War in the Persian Gulf "is a catalyst for countertrend moves in the most aggressive selloffs and rallies," the strategist says, noting that U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar "will have a countertrend outperformance." Indeed, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.3% on Thursday.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract rose as high as $82.16 per barrel and settled up 6.9% at $79.82, a fresh 52-week high. Joshi suggests emerging markets, Japan, industrial stocks and materials stocks will underperform in the current environment.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.6% to 47,954 and is now in negative territory for the year to date at -0.2%. The broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.9% to 6,806 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.3% to 22,748.

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Sea of red

Energy stocks were well in the green all day, but industrials, health care stocks, materials and consumer staples stocks were all down more than 2%. Salesforce (CRM) was up 4.3% and was No. 1 among Dow Jones stocks as concerns about the impact of AI on software stocks receded.

"Supermajor" integrated energy company Chevron (CVX) added 2.1%, and International Business Machines (IBM, +2.7%), Microsoft (MSFT, +1.4%) and Amazon.com (AMZN, +1.0%) also closed higher. Nvidia (NVDA, +0.2%) rallied late, too, but it was a sea of red for the other 24 components of the price-weighted index.

"While the uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East shouldn't be dismissed," Morgan Stanley Managing Director Daniel Skelly writes, the historical record suggests the volatility surrounding these types of events has tended to be relatively short-lived."

Skelly suggests that "when the geopolitical picture begins to clear," markets will refocus on artificial intelligence spending and disruption. "Contrary to the prevailing zeitgeist, we believe corporate America will ultimately forge a collaborative relationship with GenAI tools."

Ciena beats, raises and sells off

Ciena (CIEN) was down 13% on Thursday after management of the tech stock reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 first-quarter results and raised full-year guidance for revenue growth to 28%.

Results were driven by "unprecedented, broad-based demand," CEO Gary Smith said in a statement, noting that Ciena is "well-positioned to meet multi‑year demand as AI‑driven networking continues to scale."

As Needham analyst Ryan Koontz notes, the stock sold off "on high expectations" after a year-to-date gain of about 50% heading into the earnings announcement.

Needham reiterated his Buy rating and raised his 12-month target price from $280 to $370, citing results and guidance as well as "meaningful upside" potential for fiscal 2026 and 2027 forecasts.

New CEO Greg Abel is buying Berkshire Hathaway stock

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) was up 2.6% on Thursday after new management said in a regulatory filing that it's executing an existing stock buyback plan and that CEO Greg Abel, who replaced Warren Buffett in January, is also buying shares.

Berkshire's stock buyback policy permits management to purchase shares in the open market if the CEO and the chairman of the board say the price of the stock is below its intrinsic value. Buffett still chairs the Berkshire board.

It's the first time Berkshire has bought its own shares since the first quarter of 2024. "I absolutely talked to Warren" about the value and the timing of the trade, Abel told CNBC.

The new CEO bought $15 million worth of Berkshire stock, an amount equal to his annual after-tax salary and said he plans to use his pay to buy Berkshire stock every year.

Berkshire doesn't usually announce when it repurchases stock. “We felt it was important to communicate to our shareholders, our partners, our owners, with the transition of leadership,” Abel explained.

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Market participants went bargain hunting Wednesday, sending the three main equity indexes higher into the close. Sentiment also got a lift on better-than-expected employment data, which arrived ahead of Friday's release of the February jobs report.

It's been a volatile week on Wall Street as the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran sparks uncertainty about geopolitical risk, inflation and future rate cuts.

But despite today's reports that the U.S. sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean and the Israeli Air Force launched widespread airstrikes in eastern Tehran, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5% at 48,739), the broader S&P 500 (+0.8% at 6,869), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+1.3% at 22,807) all closed with comfortable gains.

Tech stocks were some of Wednesday's biggest advancers, with chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, +5.8%), Micron Technology (MU, +5.6%) and Nvidia (NVDA, +1.7%) all closing higher following disappointing starts to the week.

And over in the consumer discretionary sector, Amazon.com (AMZN) rose 3.9%, making it the best Dow Jones stock today.

BofA reinstates Buy rating on Tesla stock

Tesla (TSLA) also gave the consumer discretionary sector a boost, gaining 3.4% after BofA Securities analyst Alexander Perry reinstated coverage on the Magnificent 7 stock with a Buy rating and a $460 price target – more than 13% above current levels.

"We view Tesla as the current leader in consumer autonomy and expect it to more profitably scale its robotaxi business," says Perry. "We see upside from Optimus humanoids, further monetization of full self-driving (FSD), and energy generation & storage."

Crypto stocks bounce on Trump's stablecoin support

Cryptocurrencies have been beaten up amid bitcoin's latest slide, but the industry got a big boost on Wednesday after President Donald Trump criticized banks for holding up the passage of crypto market structure legislation, known as the Clarity Act.

The delay comes as banks fuss over a provision in the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law last summer, that allows companies such as Coinbase Global (COIN, +14.6%) to offer yields on stablecoins.

Big banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -0.3%) and Bank of America (BAC, +0.7%), say doing so will cost financial firms more than $6 trillion in deposits, according to a Treasury Department study (pdf).

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"The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable — We are not going to allow it," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. "The Banks should not be trying to undercut The Genius Act, or hold The Clarity Act hostage. They need to make a good deal with the Crypto Industry because that's what's in best interest of the American People."

Bitcoin rose 7.6% today to $73,089, its highest level since early February. And crypto-adjacent stocks such as Coinbase, Robinhood Markets (HOOD, +8.1%) and Strategy (MSTR, +10.4%) generated big returns too.

GitLab sinks after earnings

On the negative side of today's ledger was GitLab (GTLB), which dropped 6.2% after the software development platform reported earnings.

While GitLab reported better-than-expected fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results, its fiscal 2027 guidance came up short.

"We aren't satisfied with our revenue growth guidance," said GitLab CEO Bill Staples on the earnings call. "Like many companies reaching $1 billion in revenue, our focus has been shifting to scaling our growth."

But UBS Global Research analyst Karl Keirstead says he believes the guidance is "fine," especially as it comes amid "a backdrop of negative investor sentiment rooted in persistent concerns about AI-related disruption risk."

Keirstead maintained his Buy rating on the tech stock after earnings, but lowered his price target to $44 from $51 – still roughly 80% above current levels.

ADP comes in stronger than expected ahead of February jobs data

In economic news, ADP said this morning that private payrolls rose by 63,000 in February, more than the 48,000 jobs economists expected and the best month for job gains since July 2025.

"This increase could be a positive indicator for Friday's release of the nonfarm payroll number, although ADP revised employment growth downward on net, going back to October of 2025 by 159,000 fewer jobs," says Eugenio J. Alemán, Ph.D., chief economist, and Giampiero Fuentes, economist at Raymond James.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February jobs report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Friday, March 5. Economists expect the U.S. to have added 50,000 new jobs in February and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.

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Stocks fell sharply at Tuesday's open, with market participants spooked by signs of a prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran. However, for the second day in a row, the main indexes finished well off their intraday lows, with today's recovery courtesy of President Donald Trump's offer for risk insurance and military escorts for ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The three main indexes were down more than 2.5% each at their session lows on Tuesday. At the close, though, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had pared its loss to 0.8% to finish at 48,501. The broader S&P 500 was off 0.9% at 6,816 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 1.0% lower at 22,516.

Early declines were sparked by comments from an Iranian Revolutionary Guard senior official, who said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz, which sees roughly a fifth of global oil pass through it on a daily basis, is closed, and that Iran will shoot down any ship that attempts to pass.

However, stocks pared most of these losses once President Trump, in a mid-afternoon post on Truth Social Tuesday, wrote that he has "ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf."

Trump added that the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately.

After trading near $78 per barrel in intraday action, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished today up 4.7% at $74.56 per barrel.

Will the Fed shift its rate-cut plans?

Surging oil prices could impact the Federal Reserve's plans for rate cuts this year, particularly if they cause inflation to spike.

Speaking at the 2026 Bloomberg Invest conference earlier today, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said "we need to see what this new shock, potentially new shock hitting the global economy – how long is the effect, and how big is the effect."

Kashkari added that he expects one rate cut this year, but will need to assess additional data amid the current geopolitical backdrop to see if that's still appropriate.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently expecting the first rate cut of 2026 to come at the Fed's July meeting.

Palantir could see 40% upside on Iran war, says Rosenblatt Securities

Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which builds artificial intelligence-driven platforms for government agencies to analyze data, gained 1.4% today and is up more than 7% for the week to date.

Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake thinks the AI stock has room to run and raised his price target to $200 from $150, representing implied upside of nearly 40% to current levels.

"War regrettably underscores the value of Palantir over just another LLM [large-language model]," writes McPeake, and the Iran conflict will likely reflect PLTR's "strength and leverage."

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The price-target hike follows last Friday's directive from the Trump administration for all government agencies to stop using Anthropic's AI technologies following a disagreement over AI safety guardrails.

While the U.S. government will now use OpenAI, McPeake believes Palantir stands to benefit too.

Target booms rallies earnings beat

Wall Street also had a handful of earnings reports to sift through today. Target (TGT) was one of the strongest post-earnings performers, rising 6.7% to make it one of the best S&P 500 stocks today.

While the big-box retailer reported modest year-over-year declines in revenue and comparable sales for its fourth quarter, its earnings per share of $2.44 beat estimates.

Additionally, new CEO Michael Fiddelke, who stepped into the role in early February, said the company posted "a healthy, positive sales increase in February."

Still, Target's troubles have run deep and David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, thinks the retailer is still a show-me story at this point.

"This report doesn't convince me to start owning Target," Wagner says in emailed commentary. "The company continues to see fairly negative trends in key, higher margin categories such as Apparel and Home Furnishings."

And while Wagner recognizes that Target's 2026 outlook came in better than expected and reflects the recent sales improvement, he needs "to hear more from the New CEO, Michael Fiddelke, and his operating plans for the future."

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Stocks opened sharply lower Monday in market participants' initial reaction to U.S. airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. However, the main indexes quickly reversed course to end the day mostly higher.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% at 48,904, while the broader S&P 500 was up 0.04% at 6,881 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.4% higher at 22,748.

While a mixed start to the week and month, it was a notable improvement over the 1%-plus losses the three were facing when the stock market opened this morning.

The early drop was in reaction to news that the U.S., in a coordinated effort with Israel, initiated military operations against Iran overnight on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran retaliated by striking several Middle East nations that house U.S. and Israeli military bases, including Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan.

"Events like these are unsettling, and it is natural to feel concern about what they mean for your financial well-being," says Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at Westwood. But history shows that "it pays to stay invested," considering comparable geopolitical events show a pattern of initial market shock "followed by recovery over the subsequent three to six months."

The most important thing for investors to monitor for this specific event, notes Helfert, is what happens with the energy supply. If the Strait of Hormuz, which sees roughly a fifth of global oil pass through it on a daily basis, remains open, the impact will be limited. If it does not, "the impact becomes more meaningful and more sustained."

Oil prices spike on Iran conflict

Oil prices jumped Monday in reaction to the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 8.4% to $72.74 per barrel, their highest settlement since June.

Unsurprisingly, energy was the top-performing S&P 500 sector on Wall Street today, with Marathon Petroleum (MPC, +5.9%) and ONEOK (OKE, +4.1%) among the energy stocks seeing notable upside.

Tech stocks outperform, Apple launches new iPhone

Tech stocks were also strong performers to start the week. Indeed, Nvidia (NVDA, +2.9%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +1.5%) generated impressive returns amid expectations that the mega-cap blue chip stocks are resilient to geopolitical risk.

Apple (AAPL), meanwhile, rose 0.2% after the tech giant unveiled several new products, including the iPhone 17e and the iPad Air M4, at its March product event, which runs for three days this year instead of one.

AeroVironment sinks 17% on double downgrade

Most defense stocks gained ground today thanks to rising geopolitical risks. AeroVironment (AVAV), which makes unmanned aircraft systems and drone technologies, was nearly 20% higher in early trading, but ended the day 17.4% lower after Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale downgraded it to Underperform (Sell) from Strong Buy.

The double downgrade comes after the U.S. Space Force said it is reopening its $1.4 billion Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource program that was initially awarded to defense contractor BlueHalo, which AVAV bought in late 2024.

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"This was the company's largest program of record at approximately $1.4B of value," writes Gesuale. AVAV "had $2.8B of total backlog and this may erase $1.0-$1.4B. Backlog is the precursor to revenue and adds uncertainty to our forward estimates."

Applied Optoelectronics extends massive rally

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) was one of the biggest gainers on Wall Street today, surging 21.7%. Shares have now nearly doubled since last Thursday's close, when the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure specialist reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

The company also said it expects to hit $1 billion in revenue this fiscal year, more than double its 2025 revenue.

"We see AAOI as a direct beneficiary of soaring optical transceiver demand, driven by AI/Cloud capex, and share shifts away from China-based vendors," says Needham analyst Ryan Koontz. "While we continue to see execution risk, we believe these tailwinds, along with the company's raised capex investments, as likely transformative to results."

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Stocks sold off Friday, with the main indexes ending the day and week in the red. Weighing on sentiment today was a hot inflation reading, which arrived just weeks ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Slumping financial stocks also created headwinds, with AI worries ramping up after Block's (XYZ) massive layoff announcement.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses are paying suppliers for goods, rose 0.5% month over month in January – faster than what was seen in November and December. Year over year, headline PPI was up 2.9%.

Excluding prices for food and energy, wholesale prices were up 0.8% for the month and 3.6% for the year.

"January PPI data was hotter than expected and tells us that inflationary pressures remain, including on the services side," says Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group. "This is going to give more ammunition to the hawks on the Fed, and even perhaps push Fed members sitting on the fence to wait longer before cutting rates again."

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in a 94% chance the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged when it concludes its next policy meeting on Wednesday, March 18. Betting odds are for the first rate cut of 2026 to land at the Fed's June meeting.

Financial stocks sink after Block's layoff news

Financial stocks have been the worst-performing sector so far in 2026 amid concerns that AI will disrupt business models. This weak price action continued today after payments company Block on Thursday said it is laying off more than 4,000 employees, or roughly half its staff.

"Today we shared a difficult decision with our team," wrote CEO Jack Dorsey in a letter to shareholders (pdf). "Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company," and "a significantly smaller team, using the tools we're building, can do more and do it better."

"We are choosing to shift how we operate at a time when our business is accelerating and we see an opportunity to move faster with smaller, highly talented teams using AI to automate more work," added Chief Financial Officer Amrita Ahuja.

The layoffs were announced in conjunction with Block's Q4 results, which arrived in line with bottom-line estimates of 65 cents per share on slightly higher revenue of $6.25 billion vs the $6.24 billion analysts expected.

While Block spiked 16.8% on Friday, several other large-cap financial stocks went the other direction, including Goldman Sachs (GS), which plunged 7.5% to make it the second-worst Dow Jones stock of the day. American Express (AXP) gave back 7.9%.

At roughly $860 a share, GS has the greatest influence on the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dropped 1.1% to 48,977. The broader S&P 500, meanwhile, shed 0.4% to 6,878 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% to 22,668.

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower for the month, the Dow rose 0.2%.

Dell soars 22% after earnings, dividend hike

Not all of the day's price action was lower. Dell Technologies (DELL) soared 21.9% after the PC maker reported higher-than-expected fiscal 2026 Q4 earnings and revenue. Dell gave strong full-year revenue guidance and forecast revenue from its AI servers to more than double in its new fiscal year.

The company also announced a 20% dividend hike and a $10 billion increase to its stock buyback program.

BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan says "the near term is clearly strong," he is "unsure of the demand elasticity created by" the company's recent price hikes, which were implemented to counter rising memory costs.

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Mohan has a Buy rating on the tech stock, and he's in good company. Of the 26 analysts covering Dell who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 20 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, five have it at Hold and just one calls it a Strong Sell. This works out to a consensus Buy recommendation.

Netflix climbs 14% after ending Warner Bros. buyout bid

Netflix (NFLX) was another big gainer on Friday, climbing 13.8% after the streaming giant ended its bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD, -2.2%) film and television studios and HBO.

The company first offered to buy the assets for nearly $83 billion in December, prompting Paramount SkyDance (PSKY, +20.8%) to bid $108.4 billion to acquire all of WBD. Earlier this week, PSKY raised its buyout price to $111 billion, and Netflix said on Thursday that it would not increase its offer.

"The transaction we negotiated would have created shareholder value with a clear path to regulatory approval," wrote Netflix in its press release. "However, we've always been disciplined, and at the price required to match Paramount Skydance's latest offer, the deal is no longer financially attractive, so we are declining to match the Paramount Skydance bid."

"We are positive on NFLX walking away from WBD, as our deep dive analysis suggests sustainable 10%+ revenue growth and a 20% EPS compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2030," says Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel, who adds that both engagement and AI fears are "overdone."

Samuel has a Buy rating on the mega-cap stock and a $134 price target, representing implied upside of 39% to current levels.

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The biggest company in the world by market capitalization beat expectations and raised guidance, but Nvidia (NVDA, -5.5%) was a major drag on the main equity indexes the day after its earnings report. Mega-cap tech names, including the leader of the AI revolution and most of the Magnificent 7, as well as every other notable chipmaker, led the way lower even as the total number of stocks that rose exceeded those that fell on Thursday.

Nvidia lost about $260 billion in market cap even after Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress confirmed the semiconductor superstar's revenue opportunity related to its Blackwell and Rubin AI data center platforms will exceed the $500 billion management forecast last fall.

You can catch up on the market's most important event on our Nvidia earnings blog.

"The only rationale out there is that questions remain about what happens after the massive build-out of the mega data centers is largely complete," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates opines. "It's probably more the case of large numbers and the difficulty of maintaining high growth rates when you're the largest company in the world. It appears to be a buying opportunity."

Meanwhile, as Navellier notes, "The turmoil of AI uncertainty continues, with the only certainty being that the buildout of the data centers is well underway and will be completed and lit up ASAP."

The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) was down 1.6% on Thursday, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) shed 3.0%. Financial stocks were up more than 1%, led by American Express (AXP, +2.5%) and Visa (V, +1.2%). The Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, turned positive late in the session in a broader sign of enduring risk appetite.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.03% to 49,499, but the broader S&P 500 had lost 0.5% at 6,908, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 1.2% to 22,878.

CRM stock pops on earnings beat, dividend hike, share buyback

Salesforce (CRM, +4.0%) was the best-performing Dow Jones stock after management reported expectations-beating fourth-quarter revenue and earnings and boosted its quarterly dividend by 5.8%. The software-as-a-service (SaaS) firm also boosted its existing stock buyback program by $50 billion.

Salesforce – one of 40 stocks that could rally 40% or more – guided to fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 10% to 11% to $45.8 billion to $46.2 billion, noting that it "expects organic revenue re-acceleration in the second half" of the year. Management also forecast $63 billion in revenue by fiscal 2030.

"We delivered a phenomenal quarter to close out a record fiscal 2026," CEO Marc Benioff said in a press release. "We've rebuilt Salesforce to become the operating system for the Agentic Enterprise, bringing humans and agents together on one trusted platform."

Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss notes "an impressive Agentforce product ramp," including annual recurring revenue growth of 169% to $800 million. Weiss reiterated his "firmly" Overweight (Buy) rating and his 12-month target price of $287 for CRM, citing an attractive valuation for the stock and calling Salesforce the "right" platform.

Bull markets, bear markets and wants vs needs

As LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist notes, relative performance between consumer discretionary stocks and consumer staples stocks "can be used to gauge economic momentum by identifying whether consumers are directing more spending toward discretionary items ('wants') or staples ('needs')."

When the ratio of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary Index vs the S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples Index is rising, discretionary stocks are outperforming staples stocks. And that's indicative of a "risk-on" environment.

The converse is true, too: a declining ratio – when staples are outperforming discretionaries – indicates a "risk-off" environment. For most of the current bull market, the consumer discretionary index has outperformed the consumer staples index.

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"In recent months, however," Turnquist explains, "staples have begun to outperform as investors rotated away from big‑tech and AI‑related disruption trades and into more value‑oriented and defensive areas of the market."

Bottom line, according to the technical analyst, the ratio of needs vs wants "now sits at a critical technical level, retesting an uptrend that has been intact since the bull market began in fall 2022."

Turnquist doesn't necessarily forecast a bear market. At the same time, he observes, "A decisive break below this trendline would not only point to continued staples leadership but may also signal a broader shift toward rising risk aversion among investors."

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Stocks opened higher Wednesday and stayed there through the close. Impressive gains for mega-cap tech stocks ahead of tonight's key earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) boosted the main indexes, while a big rally in bitcoin underscored the risk-on session.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 49,482, the broader S&P 500 was 0.8% higher at 6,946 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.3% to 23,152.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, jumped 7.7% to $69,200 – its highest level in over a week – lifting shares of crypto-related stocks Coinbase Global (COIN, +13.5%) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD, +5.6%).

But it was the tech sector that drew the most attention today as Wall Street looked ahead to today's after-the-close release of Nvidia's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results.

Why are Nvidia earnings so important?

As we have mentioned several times, Nvidia earnings have become a must-watch event on Wall Street. The blue chip stock gained 1.4% today, bringing its market capitalization to $4.76 trillion.

"Not only is Nvidia the largest company on Earth by market cap, but it also provides the most critical and necessary technology to the AI revolution – the coveted graphics processing units (GPUs)," explains Andrew Rocco, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research.

And beyond its massive size and "necessity in the supply chain," the strategist says that Nvidia earnings are so important because the report "will provide clues into the health of AI spending in general and ... about the health of its business partners," including CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group (NBIS).

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But even more important than the chipmaker's results is its guidance, says Luke Rahbari, co-portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund (HDCAX).

"The guidance has to mention that they're seeing strong demand across the board — not just in one area, but across the board — and that they expect year-to-year growth to continue the way it has been," says Rahbari.

You can get the latest updates and follow along with this evening's earnings call on our live Nvidia blog.

In other earnings news

While Nvidia's results are the highlight of this week's earnings calendar, there were several notable reports Wall Street parsed through today.

Axon Enterprise (AXON), for one, surged 17.6% – sending the industrial stock to the top of the S&P 500 – after the Taser maker turned artificial intelligence safety solutions expert reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue. The company also updated its three-year outlook to reflect its strong outperformance.

"Impressively, momentum is strong across key customer segments, including state and local, international, and now even enterprise is contributing to bookings," says Needham analyst Joshua Reilly.

Lowe's (LOW) also reported top- and bottom-line beats for its fourth quarter, but shares fell 5.6% after the home improvement retailer's full-year earnings-per-share forecast came up short.

Despite lower short-term interest rates and expectations for more easing from the Federal Reserve, "mortgage rates remain elevated," said Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison in the earnings call. "As a result, a persistent lock-in effect remains in place, keeping housing turnover and new home starts under pressure, leading us to expect improvement in both the housing and home improvement markets to be gradual."

Buy the dip on beaten-down Oracle, says Oppenheimer

In non-earnings news, Oracle (ORCL) rose 1.2% after Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz upgraded the beaten-down software stock to Outperform from Perform, the equivalents of Buy and Hold, respectively. He also set a price target of $185, representing implied upside of 23% to current levels.

"While our call may be early, since it will take time for Oracle to show financial success as a more capital-intensive business in future results, we see a favorable risk/reward" setup following the stock's 50% slide since September.

Schwartz says the upgrade is based on the belief Oracle will see strong earnings-per-share growth over the next several years, its efforts to mitigate financial and execution risks and its position as an AI winner.

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Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings of $1.62 per share (+82.0% year over year) on revenue of $68.1 billion (+73.2% YoY) and guided to fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue of $78.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, as the leader of the AI boom topped Wall Street expectations for all three metrics once more.

The results came at an opportune time, "as investors were extremely hungry for confirmation that AI is still a positive storyline for stocks, and Nvidia's blowout earnings did just that," says James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research. "We believe that the positive force that AI is sparking in Nvidia's earnings will overpower the negative force that AI is causing in the software space."

Demmert adds that we are currently in an "AI and tech-led bull market that favors hardware and infrastructure stocks, and Nvidia is at the center of this."

The Kiplinger team reported on Nvidia's fourth-quarter earnings report, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what the results could mean for you and your portfolio. Scroll for the latest updates.

If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today | Here's the Truth About Using AI to Plan Your Retirement | Amid Mounting Uncertainty: Five Forecasts About AI

Nvidia stock trades higher to start earnings week

Nvidia stock opened higher Monday morning, up 1% at last check. The positive price action comes after Aletheia Capital upgraded the chip stock to Buy from Hold, saying it is "too cheap to ignore." NVDA is up more than 1% for the month to date, and has gained nearly 4% since the start of the year.

This comes as the broader stock market trades lower at the start of the week amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff plans, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.8%, the broader S&P 500 0.4% lower and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite off 0.5%.

Wall Street keeps raising Nvidia earnings estimates

"Earnings expectations for Nvidia are exploding," says John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.

Indeed, analysts have upwardly revised their earnings-per-share estimates for Nvidia's Q4 print three times in the past 30 days.

Belton adds that Wall Street "has become accustomed to very consistent beats and guides above the street," and that "part of the reason for the consistency is that the demand is so high that they're supply constrained, which remains the case."

The portfolio manager believes we "could get a big beat" this time around, but what Wall Street really wants to hear is the chipmaker's guidance beyond this quarter. Specifically, "what is the demand outlook into next year and how long is this cycle going to last," as well as "how high this cycle is going to go."

Belton also suspects the Street will be looking for commentary from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on agentic software development. "I think we're going to hear a lot more there, given what Anthropic has recently been releasing. But that seems to be the next new multi-billion-dollar use case for AI."

- Karee Venema

What time is Nvidia's earnings release?

Nvidia will release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, February 25. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The release of Nvidia's earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.

Meta goes big on Nvidia GPUs and CPUs

On February 17, Meta Platforms (META) and Nvidia announced a major expansion of their partnership. Under the new multi-year agreement, Meta will purchase millions of Nvidia's latest chips, including Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, along with CPUs, networking and security technologies.

Meta has already invested billions in data centers, large language models (LLMs) and AI-driven features for both users and advertisers. This deal strengthens that strategy by ensuring access to the high-performance compute needed to train and run increasingly complex models at scale. The chips will be deployed across Meta's own data centers and supplemented through Nvidia's Cloud Partner ecosystem. This includes providers such as CoreWeave (CRWV) and Crusoe.

Beyond performance, Meta also plans to use Nvidia's Confidential Computing capabilities in services such as WhatsApp. This highlights the growing importance of trust, security and governance.

The agreement, likely valued in the tens of billions, reinforces Nvidia's leadership in AI processors at a time when competitors such as Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium are gaining attention. Yet Nvidia's GPUs remain the most flexible option across diverse AI workloads, providing the company a durable competitive edge.

The partnership makes one thing clear: access to advanced compute is becoming the defining advantage in the AI era.

- Tom Taulli

Does Nvidia pay a dividend?

Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.

Based on the chipmaker's current stock price, this works out to a dividend yield of 0.02%. By comparison, the S&P 500's current dividend yield is 1.1%.

In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.

- Karee Venema

Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks

Morgan Stanley analyst expects "strong results" for Nvidia

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore says he anticipates "strong results" for Nvidia's upcoming print.

"We expect Nvidia to trade up on good results, with a clear acceleration in near-term drivers, an impactful and accelerating Vera Rubin ramp, and long-term confidence," Moore writes in a February 23 note to clients.

Last quarter, Nvidia reported revenue that was $3 billion more than what Wall Street expected and the company forecast an $8 billion quarter-over-quarter increase to its top line for Q4. Moore says "it does not feel like there's been a deceleration," and he believes the company will beat both its guidance and the Street's forecast.

Moore also thinks a strong ramp in Nvidia's Vera Rubin next-generation, six-chip AI platform will help mitigate any worries over weakness in the share price. He anticipates a strong outperformance from the blue chip stock going forward, as evidenced by his $250 price target, which is more than 30% above current levels.

He adds that "we would be buyers of Nvidia stock into this report."

- Karee Venema

Software's death is greatly exaggerated, says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang

Not many had a bear market for software stocks on their bingo card for 2026. It has been pervasive, from massive tech companies including Microsoft (MSFT) and SAP (SAP) to smaller ones, such as DocuSign (DOCU) and LegalZoom (LZ). Some on Wall Street have called this the "SaaSpocalypse."

The catalyst for the sell-off came last month, when Anthropic released Claude Cowork, a sophisticated agentic AI system. It allows for developing sophisticated agents without needing to know how to code.

But interestingly enough, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang thinks that Wall Street is overreacting. At a recent conference, he noted that "there's this notion that the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI. It is the most illogical thing in the world."

No doubt, Huang has a pretty good track record when it comes to understanding industry trends.

Yet agentic AI is still likely to result in major changes – and this can be a threat to those software companies that fail to innovate.

"The narrative that AI agents will replace SaaS misses what is actually happening inside companies," says Branden Jenkins, CEO of MAXIO, a developer of an AI-powered subscription platform. "This is not an extinction event. It is a structural shift. Organizations are consolidating tools, scrutinizing spend, and demanding clearer paths to profitability. Every system now has to prove its value."

- Tom Taulli

Jefferies downgrades several software stocks on AI risks

Software stocks have taken it on the chin in recent weeks amid concerns that AI will disrupt business models.

Indeed, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), whose top holdings include Oracle (ORCL), Salesforce (CRM) and Applovin (APP), is down more than 27% for the year to date to trade at its lowest price point since late 2023.

This prompted Jefferies analyst Brent Thill to take "a fresh look at current levels" for several software stocks given these AI risks. Thill said he sees "ongoing risk/negative sentiment" for Workday (WDAY), DocuSign (DOCU), Monday.com (MNDY) and Freshworks (FRSH), which he downgraded to Hold from Buy.

However, Thill isn't bearish on all software stocks. He believes Intuit (INTU), Procore Technologies (PCOR), Atlassian (TEAM) and Salesforce are "best positioned to make the AI tech transition" and represent "more durable vendors that are willing to disrupt themselves."

Overall, Thill says "software will survive" because it "helps run businesses and organizations as the code embeds domain knowledge and best practices." He adds that it is more cost-effective for companies to rely on a "few key software vendors" than to develop and maintain every app on their own.

- Karee Venema

Hedge funds bought Nvidia stock in Q4

Nvidia shares underperformed the broader market in Q4, slipping 0.04% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) vs the S&P 500's 2.4% total return.

During this October 1 through December 31 time frame, hedge funds were net buyers of Nvidia stock.

According to WhaleWisdom, 86 hedge funds initiated new positions in NVDA in Q4 and 355 increased their stakes. This compares to 29 that closed their positions and 364 that reduced their stakes.

The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to 149.3 million shares.

- Karee Venema

Read more: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks

Nvidia bets AI will transform industrial cybersecurity

In a February 23 blog post, Nvidia said it is teaming up with several cybersecurity firms on an initiative to bring accelerated computing and AI into operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) environments (think plants, utilities, manufacturing and infrastructure). The goal is to allow for real-time detection and response to threats.

Each partner brings a specific layer of capability. Forescout, for instance, will focus on visibility and asset discovery across complex OT environments, while Akamai Technologies (AKAM) will contribute segmentation technology that can isolate workloads and contain threats without disrupting operations.

Siemens and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will embed security directly into industrial automation systems, and Xage Security will apply zero-trust principles to energy and infrastructure networks.

Generally, OT environments were not built for modern cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Yet as these complex systems get more connected and data-driven, the attack surface expands significantly. But with sophisticated AI, it's possible to analyze massive streams of sensor and network data.

What stands out here is the convergence of AI infrastructure and cyber-physical security. GPUs are becoming part of the defensive stack protecting real-world systems.

For enterprises, this signals a broader trend: cybersecurity is moving from reactive monitoring to AI-driven operational resilience. And in sectors where downtime can impact economies or safety.

- Tom Taulli

Stocks tumble on AI, trade worries

Stocks closed lower Monday as Wall Street worried about the possibility for far-reaching AI disruption. Concerns about the state of global trade following the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating most of President Donald Trump's tariff policies also weighed on the main indexes.

Financial stocks led the way lower, though only five of 11 sectors closed in the red. American Express (AXP, -7.2%) was one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks, ahead of only International Business Machines (IBM, -13.1%), while Visa (V, -4.6%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -4.2%) and Goldman Sachs (GS, -3.2%) also dragged the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.7% to 48,804.

The broad-based S&P 500 lost 1.0% at 6,837 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.1% to 22,627.

Nvidia gained 0.9% ahead of Wednesday's earnings event.

Read more: Dow Loses 821 Points to Open Nvidia Week: Stock Market Today

Everybody everywhere wants what Nvidia's got

Equity index futures indicate a positive open for the U.S. stock market a day after rising fear about AI disruption triggered a broad sell-off and a day before Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of that AI-driven economic revolution, reports earnings.

"At a time with tech stocks volatile and greater worries around the AI narrative with the 'AI Ghost Trade' black cloud over tech stocks," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives writes in a morning note, "it all comes down to gauging the AI Revolution demand story which starts and ends with Nvidia."

And its tech is so cutting-edge that a senior Trump administration official told Reuters that China's DeepSeek research lab used Nvidia's most advanced chip, the Blackwell, to train its latest AI model in what would be a violation of U.S. export control laws.

"The U.S. believes DeepSeek will remove the technical indicators that might reveal its use of American AI chips, the official said, adding that the Blackwells are likely clustered at its data center in Inner Mongolia, an autonomous region of China," Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, as Ives notes, when Nvidia and the "Godfather of AI" report on Wednesday we'll "be able to hear a pin drop on Street trading desks as the entire global market will be carefully watching these results and commentary from Jensen."

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is unlikely to shed any light on the Blackwells in Inner Mongolia. But he will talk about supply and demand for the AI chips creating and, in some cases, destroying value across sectors and industries.

"We continue to believe Street estimates for Nvidia are being significantly underestimated over the next few years given the global demand story for the AI Revolution," Ives concludes, noting that Big Tech capex will exceed $650 billion in 2026.

The analyst sees "a major boost by more enterprises, governments, and global adoption entering the picture over the next 12 to 18 months with Nvidia's golden chips front and center."

– David Dittman

Nvidia earnings will impact prices for all risk assets

Strictly speaking, the three main U.S. equity indexes opened mixed on Tuesday, but the S&P 500 quickly made up its modest loss to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite in positive territory.

Nvidia (NVDA) was dragging on the Dow less than an hour into the trading session. International Business Machines (IBM), which was down more than 13% on Monday, was up more than 4% on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs (GS) had also reversed yesterday's decline, but American Express (AXP), Visa (V) and JPMorgan (JPM) continue to reflect worry about the impact of AI on their businesses.

Consumer discretionary stocks were the best-performing sector after Home Depot (HD) reported expectations-beating fourth-quarter earnings and announced a 1.3% dividend increase.

Tech stocks were also higher by nearly 1%, and industrials were also catching bids, while communication services and health care lagged. But it's all about Nvidia earnings this week. And all sectors will feel the impact.

"NVDA has consistently beaten on earnings," Mizuho Securities Director of Energy Futures Bob Yawger observes, "but if it fails to do so this quarter, look for risk assets to get sucked into an AI downtrend. NVDA would not have the same effect on oil as an Iran nuclear deal, but it does have the ability to weigh on all risk assets."

Noting that the situation with President Donald Trump's tariffs "does not help," Yawger says to look for a "commodity rotation out of oil and into gold and silver if NVDA underperforms."

– David Dittman

Agentic AI startup founder: Nvidia faces long-term competitive pressures

Over the past two decades, Anurag Gurtu has founded multiple companies, with successful exits to Splunk, Tripwire and Sun Microsystems. He also has extensive experience with machine learning and generative AI.

His latest venture is Airrived. The company is the developer of the Agentic OS, which is focused on cybersecurity, IT and business operations. While the system is agnostic in terms of GPU vendors, his company has worked extensively with Nvidia implementations.

"Nvidia's dominance extends beyond raw silicon performance," says Gurtu. "With next-generation AI GPUs like Blackwell, the deeply embedded CUDA software ecosystem, advanced networking capabilities, and strategic hyperscaler alignment, Nvidia has built a full-stack AI platform that creates powerful switching costs. This is no longer a chip cycle; it is an infrastructure transformation, and Nvidia sits squarely at the center as the foundational engine of the AI-driven global economy."

However, holding onto this dominant position will not be easy. The fact is that the competitive environment is getting more intense.

Organizations are leery of having Nvidia as a single vendor, especially as AI becomes increasingly mission-critical. This means constrained portability and architectural flexibility.

"That's precisely why major cloud providers are investing aggressively in alternative silicon," explains Gurtu. "Google continues to scale its TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) platform to support internal AI workloads and external cloud customers. Amazon has developed Trainium and Inferentia chips to optimize cost and performance for AWS AI services. Microsoft is advancing its own AI accelerators to reduce dependency and improve workload control. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel are pushing competitive GPU and accelerator roadmaps aimed at narrowing performance and ecosystem gaps."

This does not necessarily mean that Nvidia's growth engine will suddenly hit a wall. Indeed, its momentum appears to remain strong.

But for the next few years, it seems reasonable that the competition will start to weigh on results.

- Tom Taulli

AMD stock pops on Meta chip deal

Speaking of competitive pressures, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is trading more than 8% higher at last check on Tuesday, making it one of the best S&P 500 stocks, after the tech giant said it inked an expanded multi-year deal with Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META).

Under the terms of the agreement, Meta will use up to 6 gigawatts of AMD's AI chips to power its AI infrastructure. Additionally, AMD will issue performance-based warrants that will allow Meta to buy 160 million AMD shares, with the first tranche vested once 1 gigawatt of GPUs and CPUs are shipped.

"Overall, we believe the news improves visibility/reduces tail risk (a big concern in this market for the AI trade), adds conviction to AMD's shift into large-scale solutions, and supports share gain," says CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino. "The META deal is no surprise given the strong collaboration between the two, but we think it offers greater opportunities with other hyperscalers as AMD demonstrates initial success with Helios."

The news follows last week's announcement that Meta signed a multi-year deal with Nvidia to purchase millions of its AI chips.

- Karee Venema

What should you do with all that appreciated NVDA stock?

Even amid the recent volatility in growth stocks, Nvidia is still up nearly 43% year over year. And that's modest compared to its longer-term returns. Indeed, NVDA has generated an average annual return of 73.6% over the past 10 years, easily outpacing the S&P 500's 15.5% gain.

So what's an investor to do with all of their appreciated Nvidia stock? We turned to Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, chief investment officer and Kiplinger contributor, for advice.

One option is to take the money and run. "Having a disproportionate share of your portfolio in any single stock — even one as incredibly successful as Nvidia — is risky," says Sizemore. "Selling or at least trimming the position little by little could be smart risk management."

But selling isn't the only route you could take. In this article, Sizemore shares a few other potential scenarios for Nvidia investors who have capitalized on the stock's impressive run.

Read more: I'm 55 With 10 Years Until Retirement, and I've Made $2 Million on Nvidia Stock. What Do I Do with It Now?

Nvidia's top-tier status will remain intact

There's been a major focus on Nvidia's competitive position in recent quarters, particularly amid Broadcom's (AVGO) strong momentum, says Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductors and infrastructure at Futurum Equities.

But Bulk believes that Nvidia's "relentless" pace of "introducing new architectures" leaves "limited room for hyperscalers and frontier AI labs to launch competitive in-house silicon."

That's not to say threats don't exist, with Google's TPU "being the obvious example," but he thinks Nvidia "should still capture the bulk of AI compute spend this year and next."

Additionally, considering "the AI semiconductor supply chain, demand and the roadmap look on track," Bulk views Nvidia's current stock price and valuation as an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

- Karee Venema

Why are Nvidia earnings so important?

Regardless of whether you own Nvidia stock or not, the company's earnings report will be one of the most important and followed this earnings season, says Andrew Rocco, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research.

Why?

"Not only is Nvidia the largest company on Earth by market cap ($4.6 trillion), but it also provides the most critical and necessary technology to the AI revolution – the coveted graphics processing units (GPUs)," explains Rocco.

And beyond its massive size and "necessity in the supply chain," the strategist says that Nvidia earnings are so important because the report "will provide clues into the health of AI spending in general and ... about the health of its business partners, such as CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group (NBIS)."

For its Q4 print, in particular, Rocco believes investors "will want to see reassuring comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that the blistering data center spending from hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) continues."

They'll also be watching for comments on the impact from agentic AI. "Last year, Huang correctly predicted that AI would move from the 'generative' (large language model) phase to the 'agentic' phase," he notes.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia's high-stakes bet on OpenAI: a $30 billion investment and a $100 billion question mark

The buzz is that Nvidia is working on a deal to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, according to a recent report from CNBC. The transaction could value the company at a massive $730 billion.

But there is something else. Nvidia is also exploring a $100 billion deal for infrastructure investments for OpenAI, though a late-January report in The Wall Street Journal suggests this deal may be in trouble.

OpenAI's Sam Altman has downplayed this suggestion, posting on X in early February: "We love working with NVIDIA and they make the best AI chips in the world. We hope to be a gigantic customer for a very long time. I don't get where all this insanity is coming from."

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has also expressed his confidence in OpenAI.

No doubt, in the world of AI, things can move very quickly. But it seems like Nvidia and OpenAI have much at stake – and need to find ways to make things work.

"For Nvidia, the investment makes a lot of sense and allows them to have greater influence on the value chain," says Marcus Bodet, co-founder of B.I.G. Capital, a private investment firm and family office that specifically invests and acquires tech and software companies. "This will also put them closer to understanding the needs, desires and requirements of the end user and also allow them to help shape what eventual products, features and services are available to the consumer."

- Tom Taulli

Stocks rise ahead of SOTU, Nvidia earnings

Stocks closed higher on Tuesday ahead of President Donald Trump's State of the Union address.

Salesforce (CRM, +4.1%) and International Business Machines (IBM, +2.7%) led the 30 Dow Jones stocks, as AI-related names attracted bargain-hunters. Goldman Sachs (GS, +1.1%) and Visa (V, +0.2%) recovered from Monday's sell-off for financial stocks, though JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -0.1%) and American Express (AXP, -0.3%) struggled again.

Nvidia (NVDA), meanwhile, gained 0.7% ahead of its Wednesday evening turn in the earnings confessional.

As for the main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.8% to 49,174, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.8% at 6,890, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by 1.0% to 22,863.

Read more: Dow Absorbs Disruptions, Adds 370 Points: Stock Market Today

Nvidia Day looks good so far

Nvidia (NVDA) was up 0.8% in pre-market trading a little more than an hour before the opening bell on Wednesday. Equity index futures indicate a positive open across the board for U.S. stocks, following through on Tuesday's rally as well as overseas price action early on Wednesday.

The leader of the AI revolution will release its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results after the closing bell, at around 4:20 pm ET, and CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress will speak about the AI boom during the company's conference call at 5 pm.

"U.S. equity futures are firmer after yesterday’s solid rebound," BMO Senior Economist Sal Guatieri writes, "with investors eying Nvidia’s earnings release after the close today. There was nothing market moving in the President’s State of the Union Address."

As BMO Senior Economist Jennifer Lee notes, "Lots of green on the screens this morning, with chipmakers driving a rally in Asian markets." European markets were also in the green ahead of an earnings announcement it seems the whole world will be watching.

– David Dittman

For Nvidia, it's not the quarter, it's the outlook

After tonight's close, Nvidia will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results. Given the recent volatility with tech stocks, the announcement could have a major impact on the market.

So what are top analysts and investors looking for? Here's a look:

Luke Rahbari, co-portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund (HDCAX):

"I think the revenue number will probably come in right about where estimates are now. But it's going to be all about the guidance. Even if they beat revenue and beat it by quite a bit, the driving force of the stock will be the guidance for next quarter and the rest of the year. Also, what their spend is going to be — how much they're going to spend and in which partners — that will also be a big tell for the stock and where people expect it to go.

"The guidance has to mention that they're seeing strong demand across the board — not just in one area, but across the board — and that they expect year-to-year growth to continue the way it has been. The biggest thing is going to be data center revenue—the number of chips they're selling, what overseas demand looks like, and whether they think tariffs are going to cut into that or not."

John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds:

"The size of the beats over the last couple of quarters has been increasing, so I think you could get a big beat here. I think expectations are pretty high to be fair. I think the magnitude of quarterly revenue growth they've been reporting has also been expanding, so the business has been accelerating. From that standpoint, you should get that sort of indication here.

"Investors aren't questioning Nvidia's capital deployment. I think what they're looking for in the P&L and on the profitability side is what's happening with gross margins, particularly given some of the rises in input costs that we've been seeing across the supply chain. Last quarter, they got it to holding mid-70s gross margins this year and that was a very positive message. We're definitely going to have to hear them repeat that message."

– Tom Taulli

What does Nvidia's AI revolution mean for society?

Tech stocks appear to have recovered from the damage done by a report about the collateral impact of artificial intelligence on specific sectors, industries and stocks from Citrini Research that even its founder describes as a "worst-case scenario."

But, as James van Geelen says in an interview with Bloomberg, "The market is clearly jumpy about this." Stocks sold off hard on Monday but bounced back on Tuesday.

Nvidia (NVDA) is up 1% about 15 minutes into the trading session ahead of its post-closing-bell earnings announcement, and the Nasdaq Composite is higher by 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are well in the green, too,

Van Geelen, who first came to Wall Street's attention when he wrote about his Silicon Valley Bank short in 2022, says the Substack post "served as a focus point for investors who were already concerned about the second-order disruption to incumbents by AI."

He said he only intended to start a conversation about a technology with the potential to wreak widespread havoc on peoples' lives. "If you're the most bullish on AI disruption, what happens after that?"

Van Geelen also frames a fundamental challenge: "As a society, we really need to wrestle with the fact that over the course of history, the most productive kind of asset has always created jobs for humans."

– David Dittman

The Nvidia bear states his case

"We think Nvidia (NVDA) will meet expectations, but it is hard to see them delivering much upside in light of TSMC capacity," Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg writes in a note ahead of the post-closing-bell earnings event that will settle, for now, whether we're in an AI boom or an AI bubble.

Goldberg cites supply-chain problems caused by backups at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) chip assembly lines. He's also the only analyst on Wall Street with the courage to stick a Sell rating on the leader of the AI revolution.

"We see Nvidia facing growing competitive pressure," Goldberg wrote in December. "To address this, the company has been leaning on a variety of sales mechanisms to adapt."

As the analyst explains, "These measures are not fully reflected in financials, but they are already material and look likely to grow significantly next year. We remain negative on Nvidia as signs of competition increase."

Goldberg, who has criticized many of the recent big deals driving the AI narrative, reiterated his Sell rating and his $140 12-month target price.

“It's not circular, but it's kind of like a dodecahedron,” Goldberg told Marketplace. “It’s a shape that is starting to kind of resemble a circle. If it goes on much longer, it will become a circle, but we’re not quite a circle yet.”

Of the 63 analysts who cover Nvidia, 60 rate it a Buy and two rate it a Hold. Goldberg says the leader of the AI revolution is a Sell at these levels.

– David Dittman

Tech leads so far on Nvidia Day

Technology continues to lead as we approach midday, with financial stocks also up more than 1%.

Nvidia (NVDA) is up 1.8%, while International Business Machines (IBM) leads the 30 Dow Jones stocks with a gain of greater than 4%, and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was carrying health care stocks higher.

Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) as well as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Visa (V), Goldman Sachs (GS) and American Express (AXP) are also bouncing.

(True story: I'm a 55-year-old dad. Here's how my 28-year-old daughter showed me that AXP stock is still a solid investment.)

"Weakness across the technology sector (particularly within software) has weighed on the S&P 500 this year and contributed to the index’s difficulty breaking through the 7000‑point barrier," LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist observes.

"A sustained move to new highs will likely require broader participation across tech," Turnquist notes, "and, at minimum, stabilization in software stocks."

– David Dittman

Here's another AI post

The short-term market response doesn't compare to that Cintrini Research Substack post, but what MatX CEO Reiner Pope said on Linkedin yesterday is heavy on the longer-term forces let loose amid the AI boom led by Nvidia (NVDA).

"We’re building an LLM chip that delivers much higher throughput than any other chip while also achieving the lowest latency," Pope announced. "We call it the MatX One."

According to TechCrunch, "The company's goal is to make its processors 10 times better at training LLMs and delivering results than Nvidia’s GPUs.

Pope, who led software development for Alphabet (GOOGL) subsidiary Google's proprietary AI chips, co-founded MatX with Mike Gunter, who was a lead designer on the hardware for Google's tensor processing units (TPUs).

The co-founder also said MatX raised $500 million in a second major round of venture capital funding.

"The round was led by Jane Street, one of the most tech-savvy Wall Street firms," Pope writes, "and Situational Awareness LP, whose founder Leopold Aschenbrenner wrote the definitive memo on AGI."

– David Dittman

Stakes are high for Nvidia (and everything else)

Nvidia (NVDA) is rising faster and faster the closer we get to the closing bell, and the major U.S. equity indexes are at their highs for the day.

"After the close, we get Nvidia's earnings, arguably the single most important earnings report of the year," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates writes in a midday note.

"A solid beat, and more importantly, strong guidance, will reaffirm the AI narrative," he explains. "Any sign of cautiousness could bring some meaningful volatility."

As Navellier notes, "It's a risk-on day with growth and momentum names trading up." Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utility stocks are lagging.

"As the trading day rolls on, stocks are holding onto their gains, led by tech where software is rebounding," Navellier writes. "The trend will be reestablished after Nvidia tonight."

– David Dittman

Someday this revolution's gonna end

Robert Duvall, memorable from the moment he appeared on screen as Boo in "To Kill a Mockingbird," delivered many iconic lines across his career in motion pictures.

"Someday this war's gonna end," says Lt. Colonel Bill Kilgore, punctuating an 11-minute cameo in "Apocalypse Now" with another money quote. Indeed, someday the AI boom is gonna end.

Today is probably not that day. Still, as was the case with the dot-com era that bridged the 20th to the 21st century, there will be long-term winners. And there will be losers.

The names and the narratives will change. They always do. In fact, capital flow, trend changes and sector rotation are what keep that proverbial line moving up and to the right.

"One day the war will be over," says Alec Guinness as Colonel Nicholson in "The Bridge on the River Kwai," more than 20 years before "Apocalypse Now" hit the big screen for the first time.

– David Dittman

Nvidia, semiconductor stocks and railroad stocks

The modern economy runs on computers, and computers run on semiconductors. That makes semiconductors stocks perhaps the most important, or at least the most indicative, group in the market.

That's especially so right now with Nvidia (NVDA), the biggest semiconductor stock and in fact the biggest stock in the world, period, based on market cap, set to report earnings after the closing bell.

Indeed, some market technicians include semiconductors along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average when they talk about "Dow Theory confirmations."

When Charles Dow created the first stock market indexes back in the 19th century, he wanted to know about the companies that were making the goods, the industrials, and the companies that were delivering those goods, the rails.

Semis may be more important here in the 21st century. But the trains are still running.

In fact, as Susquehanna analyst Harrison Bauer notes, rail volumes were up 12% year over year for the most recently reported week compared to a four-week trend of plus 1%.

The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) was up 8.4% through Tuesday, and Norfolk Southern (NSC), long rumored to be a takeover target for Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), was up 10%.

NVDA had gained 3.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 at 0.8% but underperforming the old-school goods-movers.

At the same time, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOX) had added more than 20%.

The world is changing. And the AI revolution is bigger than Nvidia, it seems.

– David Dittman

Nvidia continues to exceed expectations

Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings of $1.62 per share (+82.0% year over year) on revenue of $68.1 billion (+73.2% YoY) and guided to fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue of $78.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, as the leader of the AI boom topped Wall Street expectations for all three metrics once more.

Revenue for the critical data center segment was up 75.1% to $62.3 billion, driven by "major platform shifts," including accelerated computing and artificial intelligence. Gross profit margin was 75.2% vs a forecast of 75.0%.

NVDA surged in after-market trading, rising 3.5% within 10 minutes of the CFO Commentary (pdf) being posted on the Nvidia website. The semiconductor stock was up 1.4% during Wednesday's regular trading session.

Data Center revenue for the fourth quarter was a record $62.3 billion, up 75% from a year ago and up 22% sequentially, driven by the major platform shifts – accelerated computing and AI.

"For the fourth quarter," Nvidia said, "hyperscaler revenue increased and remained our largest customer category at slightly over 50% of data center revenue, while growth was led by the rest of our Data Center customers as revenue diversified."

– David Dittman

Nvidia CFO looks back, looks forward

Nvidia (NVDA) CFO Colette Kress opened her narrative of the AI revolutionary's recent results by acknowledging, "We delivered another outstanding quarter."

Kress cited a diverse and expanding set of customers, including hyperscalers and data centers as well as sovereign nations. "Demand is strengthening," the CFO said, and Nvidia expects to exceed the $500 billion in total chip manufacturing it estimated in the fall for calendar 2026.

Kress says Nvidia sees sequential top-line growth through the year, with shipments for its architecture scheduled into 2027.

"Our pace of innovation, particularly at our scale," Kress noted, "is unmatched."

– David Dittman

Data centers will support more Nvidia growth

Nvidia (NVDA) CFO Colette Kress said fiscal 2027 first-quarter growth will be driven by data centers, with no contribution from China included in its estimate.

NVDA stock tracked back during her comments, holding a gain of 1.7% as CEO Jensen Huang took the mic, down from 2.5% as the call opened.

Huang opened his commentary by noting deeper relationships with model makers and "skyrocketing" demand. "We're uniquely positioned to partner with frontier builders at every stage," the CEO said.

– David Dittman

Is it hard for Nvidia's customers to grow capex?

Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said he's confident in hyperscalers' cash flow growing.

"We've seen the inflection of agentic AI," Huang said, "and the usefulness of AI is driving compute demand. Compute is revenue."

– David Dittman

All about the Nvidia ecosystem

"That's what everybody loves about our business: the richness of our ecosystem," Huang said. "We want to put everybody on Nvidia."

It's a "wonderful opportunity" for Nvidia (NVDA) to invest across its ecosystem, the CEO said, citing AI models to networking to DPUs and anything "with a computing stack on top of it."

Nvidia will continue to invest "focused very squarely on expanding our ecosystem reach."

– David Dittman

Halftime update

"We see ourselves as an AI infrastructure company," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said about midway through his turn on the company's conference call.

NVDA stock was up 0.1% 30 minutes into the call after rising as much as 3.5% after its earnings release.

"The AI infrastructure business is growing incredibly fast," Huang said.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's Rubin is ramping up

Nvidia (NVDA) CFO Colette Kress said "it's too early yet" to estimate how much the Rubin ramp will boost revenue in the back half of the calendar year.

"The question is how soon are we in market," she added, "and how soon customers can stand them up in their data centers."

– David Dittman

"Compute equals revenue"

"It's really important to realize that "inference" equals "revenue" for our customers now," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO.

"We need to inference at a much higher speed, which directly translates into revenue," Huang explained. "Tokens per watt translates directly into revenue for data centers. Everybody is power limited."

"Every hyperscaler understands this: Compute equals revenues," the leader of the AI revolution said, "and choosing the right architecture – the one with the best performance per watt – is literally everything."

– David Dittman

"Performance per watt" is the thing to watch

"Our strategy is to introduce an entirely new AI infrastructure every single year," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said, based on optimizing performance per watt.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's ecosystem is growing

CFO Colette Kress expanded on an earlier comment about Nvidia's (NVDA) customer growth beyond those that account for about 50% of its revenue.

"AI model makers, enterprises, super computing, sovereigns… we have a lot of other customers apart from cloud computing providers and hyperscalers," Kress said.

"This is one of the advantages we have with our ecosystem," CEO Jensen Huang said. "We are the only platform that's in every cloud."

And Nvidia's ability to run on open sources "creates diversity of customers and diversity of platforms. We support the whole world's ecosystems," Huang added.

– David Dittman

AI tokens are the output of a new industrial revolution

Nvidia (NVDA) was up 0.7% when CEO Jensen Huang stopped talking at the end of the AI revolutionary's conference call on Wednesday, below levels it reached in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release.

"Token generation is at the center of everything that relates to software and computing in the future," Jensen Huang said near the end of his conference call remarks. "AI is only going to get better from here.

"AI compute demand is 1,000 times greater than traditional compute. The need is a lot more than $700 billion dollars," Huang said. "We're going to continue to invest in token generation."

The CEO repeated what seems to be a developing mantra: "Compute means revenues. And I think people are beginning to understand that. The world has awakened to the agentic AI era."

The more compute hyperscalers can bring online, according to the Nvidia CEO, the more their revenues will grow. "It's a new industrial revolution," he concluded. "This way of doing computing is not going back."

– David Dittman

Nvidia stock set for a higher open after earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is trading modestly higher ahead of Thursday's open, with the chip stock up 0.8% at last check.

While the company's impressive growth is being supported by aggressive hyperscaler spending, which makes up over half its sales, "investors need to see greater signs of successful AI monetization from its customer base in a year where CEO Jensen Huang sees Agentic AI at an inflection point," says CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino.

The bar has "undoubtedly" risen, Zino adds, "as NVDA makes the case that compute equals revenue for their customers to justify the higher spend."

Zino has a Strong Buy rating on the stock and a $250 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 29% to current levels.

- Karee Venema

Salesforce stock swings higher after earnings

Salesforce (CRM) was down nearly 4% in Thursday's after-hours session following the software-as-a-service (SaaS) firm's fourth-quarter earnings release. But shares reversed course once the market opened on Thursday and were last seen up more than 2%.

For the three months ending January 31, Salesforce reported earnings of $3.81 per share, up 37% year over year, on revenue of $11.2 billion (+12% YoY). Additionally, its remaining performance obligation of $35.1 billion is 16% higher from the year prior, while its subscription and support revenue rose 13% to $11.2 billion.

CRM's top- and bottom-line figures beat Wall Street's estimates, though its full-year revenue forecast came up a tad short at the midpoint.

Salesforce also announced a 5.8% increase to its quarterly dividend and boosted its stock buyback program by $50 billion.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the print "solid," and reiterated his belief that "CRM is still a long-term winner of the AI Revolution," even as the company finds "itself in the epicenter of the AI Ghost Trade sell-off for software."

Ives has an Outperform (Buy) rating on the Dow Jones stock and a $325 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 66% to current levels.

- Karee Venema

Wall Street may be missing the Nvidia story

Even though Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter results beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, it didn't matter to Wall Street. At midday on Thursday, the shares are off about 5% or so.

And longer term, the stock price has been locked in a trading range since July.

So is Wall Street getting things wrong or should investors be wary?

Here's what some top investors have to say:

Paul Meeks, who is the head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets:

"What blows me away is that AMD, with a data center business that's 11 times smaller than NVDA's, with an inferior profit margin, and with slower prospective revenue growth, trades at a higher multiple than NVDA. Furthermore, with estimates rising today on the Street, NVDA trades at only a slight premium on this year's earnings to the S&P 500. This is a relatively and absolutely cheap stock. Yes, NVDA is up 13 times since ChatGPT was introduced in November 2022, but all of its financial metrics are up more since then. There has been no multiple expansion here. NVDA deserves a significant premium to AMD & the market."

Nancy Tengler, who is the CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments:

"This feels very much like DeepSeek to me, and what we saw then was an opportunity to buy Nvidia at just over $100 a share. It's run up much further, and then it's pulled back. If there's 60-plus percent earnings growth and trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of somewhere below 25 times next year's earnings, what you have is an undervalued stock.

"China hasn't played in yet. Sovereign is just getting started. They posted $30 billion in sovereign revenues, and that was three times year over year.

"There is a tremendous amount of growth for the foreseeable future. What we've heard from all the hyperscalers is that they don't have enough capacity, which is how you generate revenues. One man's capex is another man's revenue source, and that's Nvidia and Jensen."

- Tom Taulli

Snowflake sees accelerating AI adoption

Snowflake (SNOW) has turned lower Thursday afternoon after the AI data cloud company disclosed its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results.

For the three months ending January 31, Snowflake reported earnings of 32 cents per share (+6.7% YoY) on revenue of $1.23 billion (+30% YoY). The company also had a 125% net retention rate and 733 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue of more than $1 million, a 27% increase over the year-ago period.

SNOW's top- and bottom-line numbers beat Wall Street's estimates.

"Against a backdrop of SaaS/apps firms posting disappointing and decelerating growth rates, Snowflake joined the list of data software firms (Palantir, Databricks, MongoDB Atlas) that are accelerating growth off the back of a continued strong data/AI investment cycle," says UBS Global Research analyst Karl Keirstead.

The analyst has a Buy rating on SNOW given its attractive valuation and a $235 price target, 40% above current levels.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia drags on the stock market after earnings

The biggest company in the world by market capitalization beat expectations and raised guidance, but Nvidia (NVDA, -5.5%) was a major drag on the main equity indexes the day after its earnings report.

Nvidia lost about $260 billion in market cap even after Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress confirmed the semiconductor superstar's revenue opportunity related to its Blackwell and Rubin AI data center platforms will exceed the $500 billion management forecast last fall.

"The only rationale out there is that questions remain about what happens after the massive build-out of the mega data centers is largely complete," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates opines. "It's probably more the case of large numbers and the difficulty of maintaining high growth rates when you're the largest company in the world. It appears to be a buying opportunity."

Meanwhile, as Navellier notes, "The turmoil of AI uncertainty continues, with the only certainty being that the buildout of the data centers is well underway and will be completed and lit up ASAP."

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.03% to 49,499, but the broader S&P 500 had lost 0.5% at 6,908, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 1.2% to 22,878.

That's it for our Nvidia earnings blog this time around. We'll be back in May to report on the chipmaker's fiscal 2027 Q1 results.

- David Dittman

Who would have believed at the turn of the 21st century that there would be such a thing as a trillion-dollar stock? (Or that the Dow would reach 36,000, for that matter?)

At the end of 2000, the most valuable company was Exxon Mobil (XOM), with a market capitalization — price times shares outstanding — of roughly $302 billion. That's one-fifteenth the value of Nvidia (NVDA) today. Just counting to a trillion incredibly fast, with no bathroom breaks, would take 32,000 years, according to the Q&A platform Quora.com.

In August 2017, however, I wrote, "It may be a matter of months, or more likely a few years, but sometime soon a U.S. company will breach the trillion-dollar mark." I was more right than I expected.

At the time, I offered estimates of when each would hit a trillion in market cap. Apple (AAPL) was first, as I predicted, but it took just 11 months, a year and a half ahead of schedule. The other four quickly followed: Amazon.com (AMZN) in September 2018; Microsoft (MSFT) in 2019; Alphabet (GOOGL), the former Google, in 2020; and Meta Platforms (META), the former Facebook, in 2021.

At that point, I wrote another column, saying, "I'm doubling down and recommending them all." Sure enough, as a group, they have nearly doubled. (Prices, returns and other data are as of September 30; stocks I like are in bold.)

Today, with the additions of Nvidia, Tesla (TSLA), Broadcom (AVGO) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), membership in the Trillion-Dollar Club (let's call it TDC) has grown to nine. The combined market cap of these stocks accounts for 41% of the capitalization of all the companies of the S&P 500 Index. A mere 10 years ago, the nine largest U.S. stocks had a total market cap of 18% of the S&P 500.

Today, eight of the nine members of the TDC are technology (or tech-related) stocks, and for the ninth, Berkshire, Apple alone represents one-fifth of assets. By contrast, in 2015, the top nine consisted of just five tech stocks, plus companies in banking, pharmaceuticals and energy, along with Berkshire. In 2005, only two tech companies graced a highly diversified top nine.

Concentrated bets

The top-heavy nature of the S&P 500 today should make any investor worried. The market is betting heavily, not simply on tech but on artificial intelligence. But you will notice from the bold-facing that I still like trillion-dollar stocks — at least the initial cohort.

Why? Let's start with Alphabet. Since 2017, revenues have quadrupled and earnings have quintupled, yet the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, based on a consensus of analysts' forecasts of profits for the year ahead, has declined from 30 to 25. Analysts at investment research firm Value Line expect earnings will rise an average of 12% annually for the next five years, indicating a perfectly reasonable valuation.

Alphabet owns the global entertainment asset with the greatest potential, YouTube, with nearly 3 billion active users. The company is also sitting on more than $95 billion in cash and has very little debt; it has even started paying a small dividend.

Amazon's P/E has dropped from nearly 200 to 32. It dominates the e-commerce market, accounting for 38% of sales, compared with 6% for number two Walmart (WMT).

Apple's valuation has risen to 33, but it was absurdly low (16) in 2017. The company is a profit machine; it earns about 25 cents on every dollar of sales, and those dollars will exceed 400 billion this year. Microsoft has tripled its earnings since 2017. It has a powerful cloud-computing business and has integrated AI into all its platforms.

Meta gets the least respect. Its forward P/E has fallen from 29 in 2017 to 25, despite net profits rising from $18 billion to close to an estimated $72 billion in 2025. The company, which owns WhatsApp and Instagram, recently won its antitrust case, leaving the ownership of its assets intact.

I am less enamored of the TDC newbies. Nvidia was once a lovely choice. In making it one of my 10 stock picks for 2020, I wrote that it "may be the best artificial intelligence play." Since then, its market cap has risen from $122 billion to $4.5 trillion.

Ponder that number. It’s more than the capitalization of all the listed stocks in the U.K. It is greater than the GDP of Japan. Nvidia, with its graphic processing units, has little competition for top-level AI chips used in data centers, but that is going to change. There is too much money to be made.

Broadcom, a semiconductor company with a niche in AI chips called application-specific integrated circuits, which have specialized functions, is the change agent. It became the newest member of the TDC in December 2024 after its stock price increased by a factor of six in four years. Value Line expects earnings to continue rising at a 24.5% annualized clip through 2030.

Broadcom, like Nvidia, does not own manufacturing plants, or "fabs." That allows the company to retain its capital, but it also leaves it vulnerable to supply interruptions. My other worries about the future of the chip business are government intervention, geopolitical threats and a lack of electricity to power data centers in the U.S.; still, it’s hard not to like Broadcom.

Tesla, which reached $1 trillion in market cap in October 2021, then fell out of the club a few times and came back in, looks more attractive now that its CEO is getting back to work. I am especially excited about its battery storage business.

But Tesla is clearly a meme stock, driven by the enthusiasm of fans. Its revenues have been flat for three years, profits are microscopic by TDC standards, and capital spending requirements are huge.

The outlier, Berkshire, has a P/E in the mid-20s and a brilliant CEO in his nineties. I'm loyal to Warren Buffett and confident in his successors. Berkshire has a hoard of liquid assets, and insurance is the best business in America outside of tech.

When I wrote about trillion-dollar stocks in 2021, I warned about "a sort of law of financial gravity." It's not hard to imagine a stock with a market cap of $100 billion becoming a four-bagger (that is, quadrupling in value) or even a 40-bagger, as Nvidia has proven.

But could Nvidia quadruple from its current value? Could Microsoft or Apple, at $3.8 trillion each? It seems doubtful. Still, doubles or triples are satisfying.

The legacy TDC companies have shown a remarkable ability to innovate and adapt. Operating-system software, for example, used to dominate Microsoft's revenues. Now, it represents only about one-tenth of sales. Server and cloud services account for 40% today, with gaming and LinkedIn making significant contributions.

These are truly exceptional businesses with extensive moats and deep human capital. As crazy as it sounds, they deserve to be trillion-dollar companies — and to keep growing.

James K. Glassman chairs Glassman Advisory, a public-affairs consulting firm. He does not write about his clients. His most recent book is Safety Net: The Strategy for De-Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence. Of the stocks mentioned here, he owns Amazon.com. You can reach him at JKGlassman@gmail.com.

Note: This item first appeared in Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine, a monthly, trustworthy source of advice and guidance. Subscribe to help you make more money and keep more of the money you make here.

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Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings report after the November 19 close. Nvidia earnings have become one of Wall Street's most anticipated events thanks to snowballing demand for all things artificial intelligence (AI).

The leader of the AI revolution reported earnings of $1.30 per share (+60.5% year over year) on revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). Gross margin was 73.6% vs 75.0% a year ago.

Jensen Huang's outfit expects to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, "plus or minus 2%," and gross margin of 75%, "plus or minus 50 basis points."

Analysts were calling for earnings of $1.25 per share on revenue of $54.9 billion.

"A great earnings report with higher guidance from Nvidia really shouldn't surprise anyone, but it may reinforce concerns over seemingly limitless AI capital budgets," says Dennis Follmer, chief investment officer at Montis Financial.

Follmer adds that several hyperscalers have already announced increased capital expenditures, so it will likely be another strong quarter for Nvidia. "And more importantly, we should expect the bigger hyperscaler spending to be reinforced by Nvidia raising future expectations for sales and earnings, given they are the chip of choice for such projects."

The Kiplinger team reported live on Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what the results could mean for you and your portfolio. Scroll for the latest updates.

Worried About an AI Bubble? Here's What You Need to Know | Amid Mounting Uncertainty: Five Forecasts About AI | If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today

Nvidia stock opens lower to start earnings week

Nvidia stock opened lower Monday morning, down 0.9% at last check. The chip stock is down more than 7% for the month to date, but has still gained nearly 42% since the start of the year.

This comes as the broader equities market trades cautiously higher at the start of the week, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.04%, the broader S&P 500 0.1% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite enjoying a 0.2% lead.

- Karee Venema

Can Nvidia earnings reignite the AI flame?

That's the question Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is asking.

"For the first time in several quarters, Nvidia enters earnings with sentiment under pressure. Shares have softened on concerns of an AI bubble and the reality that China sales are unlikely to rebound soon."

However, Britzman says the overarching picture for Nvidia "remains strong" and he believes third-quarter revenue will come in near the top end of guidance, "at around $55 billion – and scope for an upside surprise."

He believes market participants will be watching fourth-quarter guidance and any color for the year ahead.

"CEO Jensen Huang recently flagged $500 billion worth of orders on the books, and investors will be keen for clarity on timing, which could imply material upside to current forecasts. With plenty of nervousness in the air, strong results from Nvidia could be the perfect catalyst to reignite the AI flame," says Britzman.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia earnings: Harbinger of an AI bubble or proof the boom is real?

Ahead of Nvidia's earnings this week, Wall Street is worried that there's an AI bubble. In recent weeks, the sector has suffered from a spike in volatility.

According to Neil Azous, portfolio manager of Strategy Shares' Monopoly ETF (MPLY), the concerns may be overblown.

"For those worried about 'bubble' talk, the stock is already down heading into earnings, and historically every dip in Nvidia has proven profitable. The asymmetry — one day or seven days after earnings — has favored the upside. Betting against the most important company in the world, with the resources it has, has generally been a losing trade. Taken together, these factors could alleviate many current concerns," says Azous.

Brian Stutland, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund and the Catalyst Nasdaq-100 Hedged Equity Fund, agrees.

"The key is whether Nvidia continues hitting the targets analysts expect. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 31, which isn't extreme. This isn't like the late-'90s tech bubble, when major players traded at forward P/Es of 40 or 45," says Stutland.

He adds that Nvidia's valuation is reasonable and the company's growth helps justify it. "I'm not convinced we're at the tail end of a bubble. It would likely take a major catalyst to push the market significantly higher than expected, followed by a shakeout. As long as Nvidia delivers clarity through earnings and meets its growth targets, the higher multiples are justified, though there will still be volatility along the way."

Regardless, Nvidia is the clear bellwether. And even if there are a few small cracks in its growth story, it seems likely that the talk about the AI bubble will not go away.

- Tom Taulli

What time is Nvidia's earnings release?

Nvidia will release its fiscal third-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, November 19. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The release of Nvidia's earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.

Firstrade's Stephen Callahan: What investors will be watching in Nvidia's earnings

Nvidia reports earnings on November 19, and Wall Street is looking for a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue to $54.9 billion and earnings of $1.25 per share (+19% from Q2).

According to Stephen Callahan, trading behavior analyst at Firstrade Securities, those numbers look about right. "While many expect the chipmaker to beat these estimates, I agree with these numbers," he says.

Nvidia's Blackwell chips are likely to see strong demand, especially with the growth in spending on AI infrastructure for data centers. "Long-term contracts with big clients have given the chipmaker a predictable revenue pipeline," Callahan notes.

But risks remain. "The tense trade relations between the U.S. and China pose potential land mines for the company," the analyst warns. "These include stricter regulations that could affect sales."

And the growing chatter about an AI bubble could weigh on Nvidia stock.

As for what investors will watch most closely? "Strong revenue growth from the data center sector" tops the list, along with guidance on future demand, China sales, profit margins and supply chain stability.

- Tom Taulli

Does Nvidia pay a dividend?

Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.

Based on the chipmaker's current stock price, this works out to a dividend yield of 0.02%. By comparison, the S&P 500's current dividend yield is 1.2%.

In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.

- Karee Venema

Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks

Hedge funds bought Nvidia stock in Q3

Nvidia shares outperformed the broader market in Q3, gaining 18.1% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) vs the S&P 500's 8.1% total return.

During this July 1 through September 30 time frame, hedge funds were were net buyers of Nvidia stock.

According to WhaleWisdom, 48 hedge funds initiated new NVDA positions over the three-month period and 316 increased their stakes. This compares to 33 hedge funds that closed out of their Nvidia stakes entirely and 342 that reduced their positions.

The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to 4.6 million shares.

Related: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks

Peter Thiel's hedge fund sells Nvidia

As a group, hedge funds were net buyers of Nvidia in Q3, but one notable fund sold its stake in the chipmaker.

Thiel Macro, which is the namesake fund of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) board chair Peter Thiel, exited its stake in Nvidia in the third quarter. The fund first bought NVDA in Q4 2024 and the AI stock accounted for 40% of the portfolio at the end of Q2.

Regulatory filings reveal that Peter Thiel's hedge fund also sold off its entire stake in Vistra (VST), which provides energy for AI data centers, and slashed its stake in Tesla (TSLA) by 76%.

- Karee Venema

BofA Securities raises EPS estimates ahead of Nvidia's earnings report

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya raised his full-year earnings-per-share estimates for Nvidia ahead of the chipmaker's upcoming earnings report.

For fiscal year 2026, Arya now expects the company to report earnings of $4.56 per share, up from his previous estimate of $4.45 per share. He also increased his EPS guidance for fiscal 2027 (to $7.02 from $6.26) and fiscal 2028 (to $9.15 from $8.03).

The analyst reiterated his Buy rating and $275 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 50% to current levels.

"NVDA is the only merchant chip supplier with proven full-stack, rack-scale execution in large AI clusters, first with Blackwell (GB200), then with Blackwell Ultra (GB300) and next year in Vera Rubin (VR)," we'll likely have three generations of experience by the second half of calendar year 2026, says Arya.

He adds that cloud capex worries are often seasonal in nature – peaking in Q4 but easing at the start of the new year. And Nvidia is trading at an attractive valuation given its AI bellwether status and growth estimates.

Indeed, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last month that the company has roughly $500 billion in total Blackwell and Rubin orders for this year and next – beating Wall Street's expectations by 10% to 15% – so most concerns will be more macro in nature, focusing on a tougher financing environment and increased competition.

- Karee Venema

Masayoshi Son and Peter Thiel unload Nvidia stock

Ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report, some of the world's top tech investors have unloaded their positions in the stock. SoftBank, which Masayoshi Son operates, recently sold its remaining 32 million-share stake, netting $5.8 billion.

Then, as mentioned, there is Peter Thiel, who is the cofounder of PayPal and an early investor in Facebook. His hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, unloaded its position in Nvidia stock for about $100 million.

Granted, in light of the company’s massive market cap, these transactions are relatively small. Besides, Son has had a spotty track record with Nvidia stock. In 2019, he sold a $3.9 billion position. Had he held on, that stake would currently be worth about $150 billion.

Regardless, Son has become a billionaire because of his savvy, high-conviction investments. His move away from Nvidia may not signal bearishness on AI at all — but rather his belief that even bigger opportunities now exist within the category.

- Tom Taulli

The stock market closes lower to start Nvidia week

Stocks opened lower and recovered briefly but slid through the afternoon to begin a big week on the earnings front.

At Monday's closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2% at 46,590, the broad-based S&P 500 had fallen 0.9% to 6,672, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.8% at 22,708.

Nvidia, meanwhile, shed 1.9%.

"The key to a turnaround in the situation," says Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "will be Nvidia's earnings this Wednesday. A positive surprise by NVDA and a recovery to new highs there, now down 12% from its all-time high, would re-energize the entire market."

Navellier notes that major investors such as Softbank and Peter Thiel have sold their entire NVDA positions and have "put a chill on the shares." He also cites "concerns about the circular financing agreements among the builders of the massive data center buildouts, which are the big buyers of Nvidia chips."

But, if CEO Jensen Huang and his company report "strong beats and, more importantly, strong guidance, these concerns will be mitigated and the AI theme will be reaffirmed, leading the market higher."

- David Dittman

Read more: Dow Falls 557 Points to Start NVDA Week: Stock Market Today

Nvidia weakness creates a "lower bar" for the chip stock to overcome, says Main Street Research CIO

Nvidia stock is poised for a lower open Tuesday, with shares down 0.9% at last check. NVDA has pulled back in recent weeks amid broader risk-off trading on Wall Street and concerns that the AI trade has run too far, too fast.

But James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research, says this "brief reset ... means the stock now has a slightly lower bar to clear post-earnings." Demmert expects "Nvidia to exceed estimates and provide future earnings and revenue guidance that is higher than investors expect."

He adds that it is "unlikely that Nvidia has seen any slowdown in demand for its products, even with increased competition, given how early we are in the AI cycle."

As for concerns over a potential AI bubble, the CIO reminds us that "all technology revolutions create bubble-like stock price performance," and excitement over all things artificial intelligence is currently expanding at a healthy pace.

While valuations are indeed lofty, Demmert says they're still trading at a discount to earnings growth rates, while sentiment has not yet reached the euphoric stage that signals a market top.

- Karee Venema

September jobs report release makes for a busy week on Wall Street

It's not only Nvidia earnings that Wall Street is waiting for this week. The highly anticipated September jobs report, whose release was delayed due to the record-long government shutdown, will be published ahead of Thursday's open.

Data released over the summer showed a concerning slowdown in the labor market, which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at both its September and October meetings.

But expectations of a third straight rate cut at the next Fed meeting in December have declined in recent weeks amid a lack of concrete economic data.

"As of now, the odds of a rate cut in December have dropped to 45% after some caution and hawkish remarks from Fed officials," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "The jobs data could skew this pricing if it confirms a further softening of the labor market, which would play into the narrative of a weakening U.S. economy, a key theme that has emerged in recent days and is driving some of the weakness in equities."

- Karee Venema

Related: When Is the Next Jobs Report?

Cloudflare outage resolved after temporary disruptions to ChatGPT, X and others

Cloudflare (NET) stock is tumbling today, down 3.5% at last check, after a major outage in the cloud services provider took down sections of the internet, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, X and DoorDash (DASH).

The issue has since been resolved, with Cloudflare noting that "the root cause of the outage was a configuration file that is automatically generated to manage threat traffic. The file grew beyond an expected size of entries and triggered a crash in the software system that handles traffic for a number of Cloudflare's services."

The company underscored that "there is no evidence that this was the result of an attack or caused by malicious activity."

On Monday, Cloudflare announced that it is buying Replicate, an AI platform used by developers to run artificial intelligence models. William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho says the acquisition will help NET advance "its vision of its Workers platform becoming a one-stop-shop for developers to build and run AI-powered applications by integrating Replicate and allowing users to easily deploy any AI model globally with just a single line of code."

Ho has an Outperform (Buy) rating on the tech stock, saying "investors should continue to own Cloudflare based on the potential for the company to execute near term as well as the central role it could play in the rapid shift toward an AI-centric internet."

- Karee Venema

AI bubble warnings grow louder ahead of Nvidia earnings

"No firm is immune if the AI bubble bursts." This is the warning from Alphabet (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai, who told the BBC that the AI surge is "extraordinary," but shows "elements of irrationality."

He's not the only one raising concerns. Just look at Palantir Technologies (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp. While Karp says the market for AI is massive, he recently cautioned that the economic output may not match the cost of the infrastructure build out.

And then there's Michael Burry, of The Big Short fame. His recent warning suggests the Nasdaq-100 may have already peaked amid the AI spending boom, with Burry saying that "someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money."

With multiple heavyweights raising red flags, Nvidia's earnings this week won't just measure performance — they may gauge how much longer the AI boom can defy gravity.

- Tom Taulli

What would you have if you invested $1,000 in Nvidia 20 years ago?

Nvidia's share price has gone through some notable ups and downs over its 26 years as a publicly traded company, but its long-term trend has always been up and to the right.

Indeed, Nvidia has been one of the best stocks to own over that time frame and created more than $309 billion in shareholder value between January 1999 and December 2020, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Over the past two decades, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return of 38.5%. The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, returned an annualized 10.9% over the same period.

In dollar terms, a $1,000 investment in Nvidia 20 years ago would be worth roughly $673,400 today. That same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth $7,900.

Microsoft, Nvidia and Anthropic go all in

On November 18, Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia and Anthropic announced a massive strategic partnership. According to Microsoft's blog, Nvidia and Microsoft will invest up to $10 billion and $5 billion, respectively, in Anthropic.

At the same time, Anthropic committed to purchasing up to one gigawatt of compute capacity on Nvidia's future hardware, optimizing its models with the chipmaker, while scaling deployment across Microsoft Azure.

A report in The Wall Street Journal estimates that the total commitment from the artificial intelligence leaders is about $45 billion, making it one of the largest AI infrastructure deals ever.

This partnership signals more than just investment. It represents a deep intertwining of models, hardware and cloud infrastructure. For Microsoft, it means broadening its model ecosystem beyond one provider. For Nvidia, it means locking in demand for its next-gen chips. And for Anthropic, it means scale, capacity and market access.

Yet the timing — just ahead of Nvidia's earnings release — makes this a high-stakes moment for the entire AI sector. The question now: Can these billions translate into meaningful business outcomes, or will expectations outpace reality?

- Tom Taulli

What should you do with all that appreciated NVDA stock?

Even with its recent pullback, Nvidia stock is still up 40% for the year to date. And that's modest compared to its longer-term returns. Indeed, NVDA has generated an average annual return of almost 54% over the past 15 years, easily outpacing the S&P 500's 14.4% total return (price change plus dividends).

So what's an investor to do with all of their appreciated Nvidia stock? We turned to Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, chief investment officer and Kiplinger contributor, for advice.

One option is to take the money and run. "Having a disproportionate share of your portfolio in any single stock — even one as incredibly successful as Nvidia — is risky," says Sizemore. "Selling or at least trimming the position little by little could be smart risk management."

But selling isn't the only route you could take. In this article, Sizemore shares a few other potential scenarios for Nvidia investors who have capitalized on the stock's impressive run.

Read more: I'm 55 With 10 Years Until Retirement, and I've Made $2 Million on Nvidia Stock. What Do I Do with It Now?

Stifel raises its price target on Nvidia ahead of earnings

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy raised his price target on Nvidia stock to $250 from $212 ahead of earnings, representing implied upside of nearly 38% to its November 18 close.

"CEO Jensen Huang's recent keynote at GTC Washington D.C., outlined the company's ongoing positioning as the backbone of AI infrastructure underpinned by more than $500 billion in cumulative order book for Blackwell and Rubin infrastructure spanning 2025-2026," Roy says.

The analyst expects near-term debate to remain focused on the sustainability of AI investments, even with several hyperscalers announcing increased spending in their recent earnings reports.

"We believe that concerns regarding vendor financing loops, financial sustainability of several key AI players, and recent supply side issues have increased as well," Roy adds, though he notes that recent conversations and industry data points "suggest that AI compute demand is likely to scale higher."

And the analyst continues to believe Nvidia is best-positioned to benefit from this rising demand.

- Karee Venema

NVDA rises again in pre-market trading

Nvidia (NVDA) was down 2.8% on Tuesday to $181.36, extending its decline since hitting a new all-time high of $212.19 intraday on October 29 to 14.5%. The AI bellwether was rising again Wednesday morning in pre-market trading, ahead of its post-closing bell earnings announcement.

NVDA stock was up 1.7% about 15 minutes before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange – helped, perhaps, by another effusive note from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Calling it a "foundational piece" of the AI revolution, Ives expects Nvidia to "handily exceed Street estimates given the plethora of positive data points we have picked up from our Asia supply chain checks." Ives also cites "monster Big Tech cap-ex numbers seen by the hyperscalers in late October earnings."

Wall Street expects earnings of $1.23 per share (+51.9% year over year) on revenue of $54.59 billion (+55.6% YoY). The consensus would also like to see fourth-quarter guidance for EPS of $1.37 on revenue of $59.60 billion.

"At a time with tech stocks volatile and investor worries around an 'AI Bubble'," Ives notes, "it all comes down to gauging the AI Revolution demand story which starts and ends with Nvidia."

The analyst says we'll "be able to hear a pin drop on Street trading desks as the entire global market will be carefully watching these results and commentary" from the "Godfather of AI," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, after the closing bell.

Ives has an Outperform, or Buy, rating on NVDA stock, with a $210 12-month target price.

– David Dittman

Gabelli PM: Why Nvidia's earnings could steer the entire market

With Nvidia set to report earnings later today, investor attention is sharper than ever — and for good reason.

As John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, notes, "Nvidia is the world's most valuable company and the largest constituent in the S&P 500, and its earnings are always closely followed by investors." He adds that this cycle carries even more weight given "the drawdown in U.S. stocks seen over the last few weeks."

Belton says Nvidia's results will offer a critical read on the health of AI spending: "Nvidia's earnings should provide an updated view of the demand environment for AI infrastructure, which we believe remains robust, supported by a broadening set of customers using the technology across a growing number of applications."

Looking beyond the quarter, Belton remains constructive on the broader tech landscape. "We think there is still runway for these companies to generate strong earnings growth over the coming years as AI adoption scales and use cases proliferate."

Nvidia's leadership remains key. The company "is the dominant player in AI semiconductors with a strong competitive position which looks defensible," Belton adds.

On valuations, he pushes back against bubble concerns: "The 'Magnificent 7' median forward P/E multiple has contracted roughly 10% … it is difficult to argue that we are in a valuation bubble currently."

- Tom Taulli

Big Tech, ROIC and NVDA

Jason Zweig writes a column for The Wall Street Journal called "The Intelligent Investor." He holds prime real estate at one of the world's premier financial publications.

His work is an homage to Charles Dow, who co-founded the WSJ and created the first stock market index, Benjamin Graham, who wrote the seminal book that lends his column its name, and Warren Buffett, Graham's most famous protege.

When Jason Zweig is writing about return on invested capital (ROIC) and Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), as he did in his weekly newsletter on Tuesday, people are going to pay attention.

Zweig cites reporting in the WSJ by his colleagues Matt Wirz and Peter Rudegair: "Big tech companies are expected to spend nearly $3 trillion on AI through 2028 but only generate enough cash to cover half that tab."

And he adds his own color: "Between Sept. 1 and Nov. 13 – less than three months – big tech companies issued more bonds than they had in the previous three calendar years combined."

The problem, as Zweig sees it, is this: "Historically, software has been a 'capital-light' business whose own cash flows could finance most needs. Suddenly, however, the tech giants are becoming capital heavy."

Here's the bottom line: "What all this means is that AI had better turn out to be even more lucrative than the tech giants are projecting. Otherwise, these companies and their investors are going to be saddled with excess capital – and unsustainable valuations."

Investors, traders and speculators alike hope many questions about an AI bubble will be answered by Nvidia and CEO Jensen Huang after the closing bell.

– David Dittman

A quick correction

Writing with half an eye on big retail names joining Nvidia (NVDA) on the earnings calendar this week as well as the next Fed meeting in December, Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates says, "The market correction appears to be over."

He adds, of course, "Nvidia's earnings tonight are pivotal."

Navellier notes that Lowe's (LOW) was up 5% after meeting revenue expectations and beating earnings forecasts but trimming its full-year profit forecast because of economic uncertainty.

"Interest rates remain flat," Navellier writes, adding that a rate cut by the Fed next month "will be bullish for stocks and would be very helpful for a year-end rally." He cautions that a 50-basis-point cut may generate recession fears.

"Nvidia is key because all the massive data center plans are wrapped around Nvidia chips," Navellier explains, "and the company has financial agreements with many of the AI players."

"A bullish report and forecast will invigorate Mega Tech, which very much steers the indexes, and index moves are what create the majority of buying and selling." NVDA stock was up 1.6% at last check.

– David Dittman

Jensen & Elon's Excellent Adventures

According to Reuters, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang and Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will discuss advances in AI and technology generally during a U.S.-Saudi Arabia investment forum in Washington on Wednesday.

"This conversation will explore the emerging forces shaping the next wave of technological progress," reads a document cited by Reuters, "highlighting the architectures, models, and investments powering a more intelligent and interconnected future."

CEOs from Adobe (ADBE), Chevron (CVX), Cisco Systems (CSCO), General Dynamics (GD), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Pfizer (PFE) and Qualcomm (QCOM) as well as Saudi Aramco are attending the meeting too.

Senior executives from Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Blackstone Group (BX), Boeing (BA), Haliburton (HAL), International Business Machines (IBM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Parsons Group (PSN), Salesforce (CRM), State Street (STT) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) as well as Andreesen Horowitz and Saudi Group will also attend the event at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.

NVDA stock was up 1.8% with a little more than an hour remaining in Wednesday's regular trading session. TSLA was down 0.1%.

– David Dittman

NVDA stock rallies into the close

Nvidia (NVDA) traded up as much as 3.6% before noon, sank some but stabilized around midday, and rallied into the close to post a 2.9% gain ahead of its fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings announcement and CEO Jensen Huang's press conference.

In October, Huang said the leader of the AI revolution has $500 billion in calendar 2025 and 2026 orders for its Blackwell graphics processing unit and its Rubin GPU as well as related AI infrastructure equipment. NVDA stock hit a new 52-week high the next day, October 29. It's down 12.1% from there.

Analysts will be looking for tangible follow-through from the "Godfather of AI," as Dan Ives of Wedbush has dubbed Huang. “This is how much business is on the books: Half a trillion dollars worth so far,” Huang said at Nvidia's GTC conference in Washington.

Nvidia typically posts its quarterly earnings press releases around 4:20 pm ET. And the CEO's press conference usually gets going right around 5 pm.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's FY26 Q3 earnings and guidance are in

Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of the AI revolution, reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings of $1.30 per share (+60.5% year over year) on revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY). Gross margin was 73.6% vs 75.0% a year ago.

Jensen Huang's outfit expects to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, "plus or minus 2%," and gross margin of 75%, "plus or minus 50 basis points."

"Data Center revenue for the third quarter was a record $51.2 billion, up 66% from a year ago and up 25% sequentially, driven by three platform shifts - accelerated computing, powerful AI models, and agentic applications," CFO Colette Kress said in her quarterly commentary. "Blackwell Ultra is now our leading architecture across all customer categories while our prior Blackwell architecture saw continued strong demand."

Wall Street forecast EPS of $1.23 (+51.9% YoY) on revenue of $54.59 billion (+55.6% YoY). The consensus hoped to see fourth-quarter ;revenue guidance of $59.60 billion.

NVDA stock was up nearly 4% in after-market trading following the release.

– David Dittman

Nvidia is "going in style"

“Nvidia (NVDA) bears the weight of the world," observes Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Matt Britzman in the first commentary I've seen since the widely watched earnings and guidance release, "but like Atlas, it’s standing firm under that towering mountain of expectations. Third quarter results delivered the goods and then some.

The analyst notes a 4% beat on the top and bottom lines along with "a side of more good news in the form of a monster $65 billion revenue guide for the fourth quarter."

"While AI valuations are dominating the news feeds," Britzman writes, "Nvidia is going about its business in style." He cites a massive backlog of orders as well as its underrated breadth, including a full data center business offering chips, software, networking and other AI infrastructure.

"Even if rivals can offer parts of the stack," Britzman concludes, "Nvidia’s fully integrated solution will be hard to beat.”

– David Dittman

CFO Kress: It's "early innings" for Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA) continued to climb as CFO Collette Kress explained how the chipmaker's position in the scaling process ensures its continued growth and confirmed the leader of the AI revolution has "visibility to half a trillion dollars" in sales of its equipment through the end of calendar 2026.

"We're still in the early innings of our work," Kress said, adding that Nvidia will remain the "superior choice" for the $3 trillion to $4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spend through the end of the decade.

"Demand continues to exceed our expectations," the CFO said.

NVDA was up more than 6% about 10 minutes into Kress's prepared remarks.

– David Dittman

More notes from the Nvidia CFO

In addition to confirming CEO Jensen Huang's $500 billion forward orders assertions, CFO Collette Kress underscored the importance of U.S. government support for the AI revolution.

The CFO noted intense competition from China.

Kress also emphasized that production for Nvidia's next-generation Rubin AI GPU is ramping on schedule.

In addition to a recently announced collaboration with Anthropic, Nvidia is now considering an opportunity to invest in OpenAI.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's US expansion will continue

Nvidia (NVDA) CFO Collette Kress said the company will continue to invest strategically following its recent deal with Anthropic and amid discussions with OpenAI, emphasizing the importance of cash flow discipline.

Kress also said that Nvidia's expansion of U.S.-based production capacity will continue.

The CFO cited physical AI as the driver of the next leg of growth for Nvidia, and she also underscored its commitment to building resiliency and redundancy in its global supply chain.

That includes building its presence in the U.S. over the next four years.

– David Dittman

About this AI bubble

"There's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said at the top of his prepared remarks for the chipmaker's conference call.

"We see something very different."

Huang identified three massive platform shifts underway, noting that Nvidia is addressing all three transitions "for the first time since the advent of Moore's Law."

This change is revolutionary, Huang explains, and Nvidia excels at every level of it, including pre- and post-training as well as inference.

"AI has reached a tipping point."

– David Dittman

About that $500 billion

"Yes, that's correct, we are working into our $500 billion forecast," CFO Collette Kress said in response to the first question during today's Nvidia (NVDA) fiscal 2026 third-quarter conference call.

"The number will grow," Kress added, noting that Nvidia shipped $50 billion this quarter. "We will probably be taking more orders."

– David Dittman

Nvidia will be efficient

"The world doesn't have an excess of anything to squander," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said during a response to a question during the company's fiscal 2026 third-quarter conference call.

"Energy efficiency is going to be extraordinary as we continue to grow," he said. "Nvidia GPU computing is the best way to do so."

Huang says Nvidia's hardware will also help drive revenue growth over time because of its efficiency.

Hundreds of billions of capex will be cash-flow generative, he explained, because new applications are the fastest-growing in history.

"Once people see what's happening under the surface" and engage beyond hyperscalers they'll appreciate what's happening.

– David Dittman

Nvidia seeks "extraordinary" returns

"We've secured a really resilient supply chain, and we have the balance sheet" to support its clients, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said in response to a question about future investment plans.

Huang said Nvidia will continue to use cash flow to support investments to expand the ecosystem and catalyze growth for partners and developers.

"They're all driving consumption, with a huge step-up in quality from a year ago," Huang said. Rather than give up a share in his company, the CEO likes to get a share of those companies and potential "extraordinary" returns.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's platform is the singular platform

"We run them all," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said about the AI platforms proliferating across sectors, industries and geographies.

And, he adds, "We are expanding the reach of our ecosystem" with its investments, with an eye on exponential growth.

– David Dittman

It ain't easy, even for Nvidia… especially for Nvidia

"When you're growing at the rate and the scale we are, how can anything be easy?" wondered Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang near the end of the company's quarterly conference call.

"We created a whole new industry."

Huang explained that Nvidia continues to solve its tractable supply-chain problems, with a lot of partners and a lot of routes to market.

And its architecture will drive the most revenues on an efficient, per-Watt basis.

"All the things that I've been telling you over the years are becoming evident," he said.

– David Dittman

'All of that has worked out well for us'

CFO Collette Kress confirmed Nvidia (NVDA) will hold gross margins in the mid-70s, noting that the chipmaker is "making sure we are innovating with our engineering and our business teams to create more architecture for this marketplace."

"Spot on," CEO Jensen Huang said of Kress's response. "We forecast, we plan, we negotiate with our supply chain well in advance," The CEO explained. "Our supply chain has known for quite a long time our requirements."

Huang added that Nvidia's suppliers have been "working with us" during a recent demand surge. "All of that has worked out well for us," he said. "There just aren't that many teams that are this skilled at building these incredibly complex things."

The Nvidia CEO cited five things that separate his company from other AI infrastructure providers. First, Nvidia can accelerate every phase of the ongoing computing transition.

And i's excellent at every phase of AI: pre-training, post-training and inference, which is "really, really hard."

Also, it's the only architecture that runs every frontier AI model: open source, science, biology, robotics… "We run everything, for every major platform," Huan said.

"We're in every cloud," he added as a fourth factor. "We're literally everywhere, every computer. One architecture, and it works."

Finally, he said, "Our offtake is so diverse," emphasizing that the versatility of its architecture is supported by the size of its ecosystem.

NVDA stock was higher by 5% in after-market trading at the conclusion of Huang's remarks.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's latest earnings signal the start of AI's "second wave": enterprise adoption

Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday delivered more than another headline beat. It was a signal of how the AI market is entering the second wave.

For the past two years, hyperscalers and model labs have driven the bulk of GPU demand. This was about building the infrastructure to power the explosive growth of generative AI. But this quarter's guidance suggests something different is happening: enterprises are finally moving from pilot experiments to real deployment.

As CFO Colette Kress put it, "enterprises broadly are leveraging AI to boost productivity, increase efficiency and reduce cost." She cited examples from RBC, Lowe's, Unilever, and Salesforce's engineering team using Cursor.

Nvidia is now seeing demand "across every industry," not just from cloud providers and model builders. Jensen Huang doubled down on the message, calling AI "a brand-new category" that is transforming existing business models and powering agentic applications in health care, legal, supply chain, marketing and more.

Importantly, Nvidia said it has visibility into $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2026. This is an astonishing figure that reflects both hyperscaler builds and a rising wave of enterprise AI factories.

If the first wave of AI was about building foundational compute, the second wave is about companies operationalizing it. Nvidia's guidance — and its customer examples — suggest that wave has now begun.

- Tom Taulli

Question: I'm 55 and have 10 years until retirement. I've made $2 million on Nvidia stock. What do I do with it now?

Answer: Nvidia (NVDA) has been one of the great success stories of our time.

The company started as a niche maker of specialized chips for video-game enthusiasts. Today, its chips are powering the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Without Nvidia, there wouldn't be an AI revolution.

As a result, NVDA stock has been one of the greatest wealth-creating investments in history. Had you invested $6,700 in Nvidia 10 years ago and held on to it, you'd be sitting on about $2 million today.

Let's say that's you.

You hit a massive home run in Nvidia, and you're sitting on a million or two worth of stock. You're in your 50s and have another 10 years until retirement.

What do you do?

Let's go through a few scenarios and look at the pros and cons of each.

Take the money and run

Having a disproportionate share of your portfolio in any single stock — even one as incredibly successful as Nvidia — is risky.

To show you what I mean, think back to the 1990s tech boom, when Nvidia's closest equivalents were Intel (INTC) and Cisco Systems (CSCO).

Both companies were critically important to the expansion of the internet. There would never have been an internet revolution without Intel's processors and Cisco's switches, routers and other hardware.

No one can deny that both Intel and Cisco were cutting-edge companies at the time. Both were justifiably well respected.

Yet …

Once the dot-com boom went bust, both tech stocks got obliterated. From the top in 2000 to the bottom in 2002, Intel and Cisco lost more than 80% of their value each … and the share price of both companies is still below their all-time highs from 2000 — 25 years later.

Both companies continued to produce excellent, mission-critical hardware and enjoyed fantastic growth rates for years to follow. It didn't matter. The impressive business performance wasn't enough to justify the stock valuations, so the shares slumped.

Will that happen to Nvidia?

Maybe, maybe not. But it's a legitimate risk. Nvidia currently trades at 50 times earnings and 26 times sales. That's an insanely rich valuation for a company this big and established.

Selling or at least trimming the position little by little could be smart risk management.

If you own the stock in a taxable brokerage account, you'd also be setting yourself up for a massive tax bill. Assuming a cost basis of close to nothing, a $2 million profit in Nvidia would mean paying something in the ballpark of $400,000 in capital gains taxes.

This brings us to the second option …

Hold on for dear life

You've done well by simply holding on this long. The path of least resistance — and the least exposure to capital gains taxes — is just to keep holding.

There are legitimate reasons you might want to simply hold on, apart from tax avoidance.

Nvidia really is an amazing company that continues to impress. It's the single most important company in the world right now. Why wouldn't you want to maintain outsize exposure to one of the finest companies in the history of capitalism?

Any trader will tell you that the secret to really making money in the market is to cut your losers early and let your winners run.

That's legitimate. But if this is money you're planning to live on in retirement, you should have some risk management in place in the event the AI bubble bursts or Nvidia suddenly finds its growth plans halted.

One option could be to use a series of stop losses. You could instruct your broker to sell off, say, 20% of your position at a certain pain point, such as a 10% to 15% decline in the share price. You could have a second sell order in place to unload another 20% of your position if the share price drops even further.

This doesn't eliminate your tax liability, of course. You'd still be on the hook for capital gains taxes on any shares you sold for a profit. But you'd be potentially spreading out the gains over a couple of years.

If things got really bad — such as in a repeat of the 2000-2002 tech bust — you'd be better off paying the taxes rather than watching years of gains go down the tubes.

Is there a better option?

You have other options.

If you regularly give to your church or a charity, you can gift appreciated stock rather than cash. As non-taxable entities, they wouldn't have to pay taxes on the gains, and you'd still get the tax write-off for the donation.

If you're willing to get creative, there can be more exotic ways to diversify a portfolio without creating a massive tax bill. AQR Capital Management, Nuveen and other specialist managers offer leveraged long/short strategies designed to create large capital losses that can then be used to offset capital gains.

To broadly summarize these strategies in general, the manager runs an aggressive long/short portfolio in which they buy stocks they expect to appreciate in value and short-sell stocks they expect to fall. There will be winners and losers on both the short and long books, but the manager is careful to only sell the positions at a loss.

These losses create offsets that allow you to gradually sell off a large, concentrated position without getting soaked on taxes in any single year.

The downside is that you aren't really eliminating taxes but rather deferring them into the future. That might be perfectly fine, of course. If your goal is to eventually leave the portfolio to your heirs, they would benefit from a stepped-up basis, meaning the would-be capital gains taxes would really disappear.

For such a complex strategy, you should probably consult a professional. There's always risk to consider with any strategy that involves shorting or leverage.

Before you do anything, keep in mind that having a large position in a single stock is a high-quality problem. It does potentially create tax issues to contend with, but that's very clearly better than the alternative of not having an appreciated stock position.

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To help you understand what's going on in politics, the economy and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…

A big shift in economic policy is underway. One that includes more federal involvement in parts of the private sector that were once off-limits. The shift began in Donald Trump’s first term. Now, the president is attempting to cement it.

Among the steps that Trump has taken so far:

Making the government a major shareholder of so-called national champion firms, such as Intel and U.S. Steel, to shore up the manufacturing base. Both companies have lost ground in recent decades, even with extensive efforts to engineer a turnaround. The administration has also floated taking a big stake in major defense contractors, such as Lockheed Martin.

Establishing more public-private partnerships in sectors critical to national security.
One example: A multibillion-dollar agreement with MP Materials to create a mine-to-magnet rare earths supply chain.

Imposing and threatening higher tariffs, hoping to strong-arm supply chains back to the U.S. Case in point, biopharma — one of the many industries facing higher duties — has pledged at least $292 billion to expand U.S. manufacturing in the past six months.

Most of the president’s moves have a national security angle.
The decline of the U.S. manufacturing base is one of Trump’s long-running concerns. Moreover, he has so far focused primarily on industries where ongoing competition with China is a concern. Beijing now dominates “traditional” manufacturing industries like steel and is increasingly making advances in high-tech areas, including semiconductors.

His policies are also limited to where the White House has clear leverage, such as extensive federal subsidies (Intel) or a pending merger approval (U.S. Steel). The big question now is how far the administration ultimately plans to go. For now, it’s signaling clear limits in its intentions, focusing mostly on manufacturing. Case in point, federal officials say that they have no plans to take a stake in Nvidia, a chipmaker, which, unlike Intel, outsources all of its manufacturing to other firms.

The risk of a legal backlash grows if Trump pushes further. For example, if the administration begins to regularly require companies to give Uncle Sam shares as a condition of receiving government contracts, as well as permits and licenses, lawsuits are highly likely. The White House could see its strategy blow up sooner than that if the courts nix its current authority to impose across-the-board tariffs.

Also unclear: How effective this strategy will be. Intel will be a key test case. More federal involvement could help the struggling chipmaker land more customers, or it could worsen the company’s long track record of corporate mismanagement.

Trump’s policies are not unprecedented, but their permanence is unusual in modern times. For example, Uncle Sam temporarily took ownership of GM in 2009.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Nvidia (NVDA) released its fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings report after the close Wednesday, August 27.

Nvidia earnings are one of Wall Street's most anticipated events, thanks to accelerating demand for all things artificial intelligence (AI).

Nvidia reported earnings of $1.05 per share, up 54% year over year and ahead of a Wall Street forecast of $1.01. Revenue was $46.7 billion, up 56% annually and just ahead of a consensus estimate of $46.0 billion.

The Kiplinger team reported live on Nvidia's second-quarter earnings report, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what the results could mean for you and your portfolio. Scroll for the updates.

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What time is Nvidia's earnings release?

Nvidia will release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, August 27. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The release of Nvidia's earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia's next-gen efforts, robotics updates and competition are top of mind for analysts

Jamie Meyers, senior analyst at Laffer Tengler Investments, is upbeat ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement.

"We've seen strong demand intra-quarter, along with companies like OpenAI complaining about cloud capacity and chip availability," Meyers notes. "Moreover, with a resumption of China H20 shipments, we expect the loss of revenue – at $8 billion last quarter – from China sales will be significantly less or mostly eliminated."

Meyers also expects management to comment on both sovereign and Blackwell Ultra ramps. "As such, we believe earnings will skew to the upside," he adds.

For the earnings call, Meyers wants to learn more about next-generation efforts, including those for robotics. To this end, Nvidia has inked partnerships with firms like Siemens and Schneider Electric.

He also wants to see updates about software and AI tools, such as the NeMo framework (for building generative AI models), new Omniverse libraries and the Cosmos world foundation models (for robotics).

Finally, Meyers is looking to hear more about any impacts from rivals. "We are monitoring whether the hyperscalers' own chips will cut into Nvidia's demand, though we don't see evidence of that yet."

- Tom Taulli

Does Nvidia pay a dividend?

Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.

Based on the chipmaker's current share price, this equates to a dividend yield of 0.02%. This is well below the S&P 500's current dividend yield of 1.2%.

In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.

- Karee Venema

Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks

A possible Ruben ramp delay and U.S. revenue sharing – what Gabelli Funds' Makino is watching in Nvidia's earnings

Even though expectations for Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report are high, the company is likely not to disappoint. This is the view from Ryuta Makino, research analyst at Gabelli Funds.

"The question currently is on the Blackwell ramp and any update on the H20 re-ramp, given that the export license restrictions have been lifted in China," Makino says. "There may be questions on the 15% revenue share with the government and how that may impact ultimate end-demand."

Another story he's looking for is on the Rubin ramp, which is expected in 2026. Makino notes that "there are some rumors that it may be delayed or the ramp will be slower than initial expectations."

Makino is also watching for competitive issues. Some of the developments to keep an eye on include Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) upcoming GPU lineup and Broadcom’s (AVGO) ASICs. Additionally, some Chinese firms are taking market share from the Nvidia H20.

"On the networking side, we're hearing more about Arista Networks' (ANET) strength against NVLink,” he says. “So, it would be interesting to hear about the strength of Nvidia's networking as well."

- Tom Taulli

Hedge funds bought Nvidia in Q2

Nvidia shares plunged at the start of the second quarter as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff policies spooked investors. The chipmaker quickly recovered, though, with NVDA ending the quarter up nearly 46%.

During this April 1 through June 30 time frame, hedge funds were net buyers of Nvidia stock in the second quarter.

According to WhaleWisdom, 82 hedge funds initiated new NVDA positions over the three-month period and 389 reduced their stakes. This compares to 44 hedge funds that closed out of their Nvidia stakes entirely and 264 that reduced their positions.

The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to 113 million shares.

- Karee Venema

Related: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks

Stifel raises Nvidia's price target ahead of earnings

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy raised his price target on Nvidia stock to $212 from $202 ahead of earnings, calling the shares "attractively valued" due to the company's AI pole position.

The analyst believes the resumption of H20 shipments in July and accelerating demand for GB300 infrastructure will lead to a beat-and-raise scenario for Nvidia on Wednesday.

"Our supply chain discussions continue to point to expectations for ramping GB300 orders into year-end even as sustained GB200 demand continues," Roy writes in a note to clients.

In the near term, the analyst expects investors to be focused on "hyperscaler demand and sustainability of infrastructure investment, particularly in lieu of recent concerns regarding an 'AI bubble' and reports of an underwhelming GPT-5 launch."

Roy also believes impacts related to Chinese export restrictions and possible margin pressure from early GB300 ramps are also things investors are watching.

Overall, the analyst continues to believe "that NVDA’s leadership positioning in AI infrastructure remains unchallenged, and we expect GB300 specifications to remain best-in-class as inference and reasoning complexity continues to increase."

- Karee Venema

Nvidia stock trades lower at the start of earnings week

Nvidia stock is trading modestly lower ahead of Monday's opening bell, down 0.2% at last check.

Still, shares are up 32.6% for the year to date through the August 22 close, making NVDA the best Dow Jones stock of 2025 at this point.

The main indexes are also poised for a lower open on Monday, with futures on the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq all in the red following Friday's Fed-fueled rally.

- Karee Venema

Beyond export bans: Nvidia's bid to keep China in its orbit

For Nvidia's upcoming earnings call, the company's positioning and strategy in China will certainly be a big topic. There is even buzz that the tech giant is developing a new chip for the market, according to a report from Reuters.

"This chip is currently being called the B30A and is based on Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell architecture," says Simeon Bochev, CEO and co-founder at Compute Exchange. "It would outperform the H20, which is the most powerful chip that Nvidia is allowed to sell to China under the current U.S. chip export restrictions, while maintaining regulatory limits."

Bochev considers this important for the U.S. to maintain global AI dominance. He thinks that export bans ultimately fail. After all, a country like China has the financial and engineering resources to build its own homegrown GPUs.

Regardless, the B30A may be bullish for Nvidia. "It could generate a new engine of growth for the company in China," says Ray Wang, research director of Semiconductors, Supply Chain, & Emerging Tech at Futurum Equities. "This is given the potential for higher pricing and sales volumes, as well as the likely significant demand of Chinese companies."

Still, there are potential regulatory headwinds to consider.

"While the B30A is reportedly designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions, approval can't be guaranteed," Bochev notes. "There are deep-seated fears in Washington, D.C., about the national security risks of giving China access to advanced U.S. AI technology, especially chips that can be used in the military, for surveillance, or other strategic purposes."

- Tom Taulli

What would you have if you invested $1,000 in Nvidia 20 years ago?

Nvidia's share price has gone through some notable ups and downs over its 26 years as a publicly traded company, but its long-term trend has always been up and to the right.

Indeed, Nvidia has been one of the best stocks to own over that time frame and created more than $309 billion in shareholder value between January 1999 and December 2020, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Over the past two decades, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return of 39.7%. The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, returned an annualized 10.8% over the same period.

In dollar terms, a $1,000 investment in Nvidia 20 years ago would be worth roughly $793,000 today. That same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth $7,900.

As Nvidia goes, so goes the market

Nvidia stock has made some notable post-earnings moves in the past two years. Here's a quick rundown of NVDA's single-session returns the day after the chipmaker reported earnings:

• Q1 Fiscal 2026 (reported May 28, 2025): +3.3%
• Q4 Fiscal 2025 (reported February 26, 2025): -8.5%
• Q3 Fiscal 2025 (reported November 20, 2024): +0.5%
• Q2 Fiscal 2025 (reported August 28, 2024): -6.4%
• Q1 Fiscal 2025 (reported May 22, 2024): +9.3%
• Q4 Fiscal 2024 (reported February 21, 2024): +16.4%
• Q3 Fiscal 2024 (reported November 21, 2023): +0.8%
• Q2 Fiscal 2024 (reported August 23, 2023): +3.2%

This works out to an average post-earnings move of 6.1%. But even a below-average move could impact the broader market, says Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

This is because, at $4.34 trillion, Nvidia is "the largest market capitalized firm in the world," and "holds the highest weighting of any stock."

Indeed, Nvidia has a 7.6% weighting in the S&P 500 and accounts for 14.4% of the Nasdaq-100. But in the price-weighted Dow, NVDA, last seen at $181 per share, is ranked 19th out of 30.

- Karee Venema

UBS sees more upside ahead for Nvidia stock

Late last week, UBS Global Research analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his price target on Nvidia stock to $205 from $175, representing implied upside of more than 13% to current levels, on revised earnings estimates.

For Nvidia's fiscal Q2 print, Arcuri is expecting revenue in the $46 billion range and is anticipating the company to guide for fiscal Q3 revenue of $54 billion to $55 billion, excluding China. If China is included, the forecast could be for $57 billion in revenue.

He also believes data center revenue stayed strong, though Nvidia's gaming segment is facing tough comparisons following an impressive first quarter.

"On China, there is likely some re-usable H20 inventory that had been written down, but we believe NVDA did place new Hopper wafer orders upon receipt of H20 license news and we still believe it is working on a Blackwell version as the U.S. government likely (in our view) raises the ceiling of what is allowed to ship into China as part of its rare earth deal efforts," Arcuri adds.

The analyst sees "overall demand signals as strong as ever" and expects "NVDA's commentary to reflect this very strong backdrop."

- Karee Venema

Snowflake reports on Wednesday too

Snowflake (SNOW) is also slated to unveil earnings after Wednesday's close. Analysts expect the AI cloud platform provider to report fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings of 27 cents per share, up 50% year over year. Revenue is forecast to arrive at $1.1 billion (+25.2% YoY).

Ahead of the event, BofA Securities analyst Brad Sills upgraded SNOW to Buy from Neutral (the equivalent of Hold). He also hiked his price target to $240 from $220, representing implied upside of 23% to current levels.

Sills points to proprietary data sources that signal momentum in Snowflake's data warehouse and emerging Cortex AI, as well as its Snowpark developer businesses.

"While we believe that Q2 earnings will be a catalyst for the stock given multiple positive data points [including solid web activity and channel feedback], our call is for outperformance over the long term given incremental traction with products addressing a significantly larger addressable AI market for software of $155 billion," Sills says.

He adds that with Snowflake shares are trading at "a reasonable" 1.5 times free cash flow adjusted for growth, lower than its broader large-cap peer group.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia says its newest "robot brain" is available

Nvidia announced Monday that its newest "robot brain," Jetson AGX Thor, is now "generally available" to purchase, with the price for the developer kit and production modules starting at $3,499.

The company said that the new computers are "designed to power millions of robots across industries including manufacturing, logistics, transportation, healthcare, agriculture and retail."

"With unmatched performance and energy efficiency, and the ability to run multiple generative AI models at the edge, Jetson Thor is the ultimate supercomputer to drive the age of physical AI and general robotics," said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

According to Nvidia, the Jetson AGX Thor enables robots to have "real-time, intelligent interactions with people and the physical world."

Huang has previously said that outside of AI, robotics represents the company's biggest area for potential growth.

In its fiscal first quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $567 million in its Automotive and Robotics segment, up 72% year over year.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia remains a top pick at Jefferies ahead of earnings

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis is joining the chorus of Wall Street pros that expect Nvidia to report a fiscal Q2 beat Wednesday evening.

"Readthroughs from ODMs suggest the Blackwell ramp is progressing, albeit maybe not as fast as the bull case exiting Computex, with the B300 layering in October," Curtis says.

The analyst notes that revenue expectations for a roughly $2 billion beat in both the July and October quarters are "doable," but adds that they may not be a layup as Street estimates create a high bar.

Curtis thinks networking growth will show upside, but doesn't expect "NVDA to add in much, if any, China sales, as there seems to be a deal in place for the licenses."

He remains confident in Nvidia for the long term and has the company as a "top pick."

- Karee Venema

A VC's take on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report

Anthony Georgiades is co-founder and general partner at Innovating Capital, a venture fund that focuses on cybersecurity, enterprise infrastructure and Web3. Over the past decade, he has invested in 46 companies and achieved 10 successful exits, including Strata (a multi-cloud enterprise identity platform) and Cohesity (a leader in next-generation data management).

Along the way, he has seen the impact of Nvidia on his investments, specifically in terms of the growing demand for GPUs.

"The company's dominance in the AI ecosystem is unparalleled, powering over 80% of AI training and deployment GPUs globally and supplying the chips behind three-quarters of the world's top supercomputers," Georgiades says. "The launch of the Blackwell Ultra architecture shows how quickly they're pushing the innovation cycle, and their expansion beyond chips into software, simulation, robotics and AI infrastructure makes them more than just a semiconductor company. They're building the entire stack."

Yet this does not mean that Nvidia is without risks. In fact, there are some notable ones, such as the supply constraints.

Nvidia's "reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and exposure to geopolitical risks in Asia add fragility," he says. "China is a wildcard, as export restrictions and rising local competitors are real threats. Structurally, the environmental and energy intensity of AI workloads could become a bottleneck if regulation or infrastructure can't keep up. NVIDIA is leading the AI wave, but the risks are systemic, not just competitive."

Georgiades thinks that Nvidia's upcoming earnings report will be a critical litmus test for whether the company can keep justifying its growth trajectory. Still, he remains upbeat.

"The company is embedding itself deeper into AI infrastructure with $500 billion in planned global buildouts," Georgiades notes. "The moat created by CUDA, its developer ecosystem, and its pace of innovation gives it staying power. So while the stock may look expensive, it reflects how central Nvidia has become to the AI economy. The risk isn't that Nvidia is overvalued in the short term, but that the entire AI cycle slows faster than investors expect."

- Tom Taulli

I, Robot … says Nvidia

A key part of the long-term growth story for Nvidia is robotics. It's perhaps the biggest opportunity for AI.

Ahead of its earnings report this week, Nvidia is already teasing some of its latest offerings. As we previously, the company announced a robotics chip module called the Jetson AGX Thor, or the "robot brain." It will start shipping next month and have a price tag of $3,499.

"At a high level, the Jetson AGX Thor is a Developer Kit using the Blackwell GPU," says Vaclav Vincalek, founder and chief technology officer of Hiswai.com. "It is targeted at companies developing robots equipped with cameras and various sensors. It provides high-throughput, low-latency data ingestion and processing."

The system includes 128 gigabytes of memory, a monitor, a keyboard, mouse ports and network connectivity. It can process more than 7.5 times the AI computing power than the prior model.

However, when it comes to commercialization, robotics is still in the nascent stages.

"What the industry needs is a ChatGPT moment," says Muddu Sudhakar, a co-founder and investor of tech startups. "But with the Jetson AGX Thor, this could help get there. It's affordable and powerful. In other words, the system can be a way to help unleash innovation in robotics."

- Tom Taulli

When is Nvidia's earnings call?

Nvidia will host its earnings call on Wednesday, August 27, beginning at 5 pm Eastern Standard Time.

Ahead of its earnings call, Nvidia will release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes. The results are typically posted between 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm EST.

- Karee Venema

Where does Wall Street stand on Nvidia stock?

Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia stock. Of the 67 analysts covering NVDA who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 49 say it's a Strong Buy, 11 have it at Buy, six call it a Hold and one has it at Strong Sell.

This works out to a consensus Strong Buy recommendation and makes Nvidia one of the top-rated Dow stocks.

Analysts' price targets currently range from a low of $100 to a high of $270. The average target price of $194.22 represents implied upside of 7.1% to current levels.

William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji is one of those with an Outperform (Buy) rating on Nvidia.

"Despite increased competition, Nvidia should retain its leadership in AI for several years to come (underpinned by industry-leading hardware, an unparalleled supply chain, and the broadly used CUDA-based software stack), which will allow it to capture a majority of AI infrastructure investments," Naji says.

As for Nvidia's earnings, Naji expects "another beat-and-raise quarter powered by volume deployments of Blackwell GPUs and NVL72 racks."

While the analyst says the second quarter is unlikely to have any revenue contributions from China, he expects to see H20 revenue included in forward guidance.

- Karee Venema

AI likely fueled Marvell Technology's top and bottom lines, too

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is another chipmaker on this week's earnings calendar. The company designs and manufactures semiconductors for data infrastructure, including AI and cloud computing, and it will disclose its fiscal 2026 second-quarter results after Thursday's close.

Wall Street is expecting impressive growth. As a group, analysts expect Marvell earnings to more than double year over year to 67 cents per share, while revenue is projected to rise 58% to $2.0 billion.

"We expect fiscal second-quarter results at or above consensus and fiscal third-quarter guidance at least at consensus before auto ethernet divestiture effects," says B. Riley Securities analyst Craig A. Ellis.

The analyst notes that focus will be centered on AI growth in Marvell's data center segment, with artificial intelligence now the majority of mix.

"We believe [Marvell's] AI Infrastructure event [from earlier this summer] validated momentum and MRVL's long-term growth trajectory, showing deep custom silicon visibility with customer engagement breadth, significantly exceeding prior disclosures," Ellis adds.

The analyst has a Buy rating on Marvell and a $115 price target, representing implied upside of 54% to current levels.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia stock closes higher ahead Tuesday

Nvidia shares gained 1.1% on Tuesday, bringing their year-to-date gain to 35.4%. This makes NVDA to top-performing Dow Jones stock for 2025, but today, it was the seventh-best of the 30 blue chips.

Aircraft maker Boeing (BA), meanwhile, was the best Dow stock on Tuesday, rising 3.5% on reports the U.S. government is considering taking equity stakes in defense stocks.

As for the main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite tacked on 0.4%.

Read more: President Trump Makes Markets Move Again: Stock Market Today

NVDA is up in pre-market trading

Nvidia (NVDA), scheduled to report its fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings after the closing bell, was up 0.6% in pre-market trading as of 7:25 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.

The semiconductor stock last changed hands at $182.91, just shy of the 52-week high of $184.48 and the all-time closing high of $183.16 it reached on August 12.

NVDA is up 39% over the trailing 12 months, 34% year to date, and 3.6% for the past month vs 16%, 10%, and 0.9% for the S&P 500 and is now trading at nearly 42 times forward earnings estimates.

People are starting to talk about a bubble, and Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates says the repercussions of an earnings miss would be of far greater magnitude than another big revenue beat for the AI revolutionary.

According to Navellier, "The downside of any disappointments is probably greater than the upside of an even stronger outlook that is already priced into the world's most valuable stock."

But NVDA stock is still recovering in valuation terms from the double impact of the DeepSeek revelation in January and President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement in April.

Indeed, on January 6, NVDA stock closed at $149.43 and 50.59 times forward earnings.

Wall Street expects Nvidia to report earnings of $1.01 per share, up from 68 cents a year ago, on revenue growth of 53% to $46 billion.

– David Dittman

Nvidia stock slips at the open

Nvidia opened lower and was down more than 1% about 15 minutes into Wednesday's trading session. In fact it was No. 30 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks early on the day it's scheduled to release fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings.

Expectations for Nvidia ratcheted even higher in pre-market trading after software maker Okta (OKTA, +3.1%) reported its own expectations-beating quarterly results.

Okta is making a name for itself in competition against the likes of Microsoft (MSFT, -0.3%) by offering a platform-neutral solution to what its CEO describes as the "identity quagmire" wrought by the AI Revolution.

Management reported earnings of 91 cents per share vs a FactSet-compiled consensus forecast of 84 cents. Revenue was up 13% year over year to $728 million against a $711 million estimate.

Okta guided to fiscal third-quarter revenue of $728 million to $730 million, better than FactSet's $721 million forecast. Management also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $2.875 billion to $2.885 billion from $2.85 billion to $2.86 billion.

Chinese chipmaker Cambricon Technologies also reported stellar numbers, posting a company-record first-half profit on momentum created by the introduction of DeepSeek in January.

Cambricon – a Huawei Technologies competitor on the Chinese AI market – was up as much as 10.2% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and closed higher by 3.2%.

China is working to fill gaps in its supply chain in the absence of clarity about the availability of Nvidia products in the domestic market. Its success underscores the global pace and potential of AI development.

– David Dittman

NVDA rising with "plenty of runway" for the AI revolution

Nvidia rose all the way from the bottom of the stack of Dow Jones stocks into positive territory before noon today, but the stock remains a little bouncy ahead of its post-closing-bell earnings announcement.

Meanwhile, regarding questions about a bubble for NVDA stock and/or the AI revolution, a team of Wedbush analysts including Seth Basham, Dan Ives and Matt Bryson sees "plenty of runway ahead" for "a golden age of productivity and economic growth."

"Throughout history," the Wedbush team writes, "boom-and-bust stock market cycles have emerged alongside periods of innovation. New technologies can deliver massive productivity gains and economic growth such as in the 1920s, but they can also spark speculative excess."

This is not that: "While some investors fear that a stock market bubble is forming due to lofty valuations and unachievable expectations for artificial intelligence (AI), we disagree."

According to Wedbush, "The potential for AI to drive productivity and economic growth dwarfs past technologies."

The bottom line is "earnings forecasts likely materially underestimate the benefit of AI in the years to come, making stocks reasonably valued."

Indeed, Wedbush says we're still in the early stages of the AI Revolution – or the "4th Industrial Revolution."

Analysts do anticipate corrections along the way. But, "fueled by AI-led innovation, interest rate cuts and tax incentives, we believe that this bull market can endure."

Bryson rates NVDA stock Outperform (or "Buy") with a 12-month target price of $210, up from $175 as of August 21.

– David Dittman

Hyperscalers the beating heart of the AI revolution

Well – in the sense that all the earnings beats Nvidia has put together on its way to becoming the most valuable company in the history of the world are a function of capital expenditures by companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) – yes, hyperscalers are the heart of the artificial intelligence revolution.

(And, of course, Nvidia – maybe more specifically CEO Jensen Huang – is the brains behind their respective ever-expanding (for now) AI operations.)

As Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates suggests, "With all the data center spending announced by the AI giants, NVDA's numbers will be strong." So how much capex are we talking about with the Big Four?

Alphabet is tracking to $85 billion in 2025, up from a prior estimate of $75 billion on strong demand for its cloud products and services.

Amazon reported second-quarter capex of $31.4 billion and said the figure is "reasonably representative of our quarterly capital investment rate for the back half of this year," suggesting $118.5 billion in full-year spend.

Meta expects to spend $66 billion to $72 billion during its fiscal 2025, up from prior guidance of $64 billion to $72 billion.

Microsoft reported $88.7 billion for the 12 months through June, the end of its fiscal 2025, up from its $80 billion forecast. MSFT management said spending would slow in fiscal 2026, with first-quarter capex down 50% year over year to $30 billion.

The Big Four have guided to aggregate capex of as much as $364 billion for their respective fiscal years, up from estimates of approximately $325 billion.

Navellier sees ever-rising demand on the horizon: "There is no doubt that bigger companies will want their proprietary data managed onsite, adding further to demand." He also adds, parenthetically, a potentially good problem for chipmakers to have: The AI giants could face difficulties getting their orders filled.

"At this point, it's not a question of demand, but more of being able to ship and meet demand." Navellier notes that customers are already turning to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to backstop the ability to get orders filled.

Nvidia will also benefit from the Trump administration loosening restrictions on transactions with China. "It will be the most closely watched earnings announcement of the year," Navellier concludes.

– David Dittman

Nvidia eases on down into earnings

Nvidia closed Wednesday's regular trading session down 17 cents, or 0.09%. So the leader of the AI revolution remains perched to reach new highs post-earnings – or take the whole market down with it.

So much attention – here and elsewhere – is on capex and how much the Big Four hyperscalers are spending to build out their AI capacity.

Peter Berezin of BCA is looking at something else. "Investors will be scrutinizing Nvidia’s earnings report tonight for signs of cracks in the massive, ongoing AI capex boom," Berezin writes. "I understand the temptation to do so, but I am not certain that capex is the best metric to focus on."

As Berezin explains, hyperscaler capex temporarily peaked in the fourth quarter of 2022, "AFTER the stock market had already bottomed during that year."

Going back to the dot-com era, telecom capex started sliding in early 2001 "as the recession was beginning."

According to Berezin, "Capex is generally a coincident-to-lagging indicator. If you focus on capex as an indicator of where the stock market is going, you will find yourself behind the curve.

Instead, focus on free cash flow, "a leading indicator not just for capital spending but for the stock market as well."

Hyperscaler free cash flow peaked in the third quarter of 2021 "before stocks started to fall. And telecom free cash flow peaked in the fourth quarter of 1999, "before the dot-com bust."

He warns "hyperscaler free cash flow is ALREADY trending lower," a sign of rising risk AI stocks are nearing peaks.

Regarding Nvidia, the magnitude of its upside surprises has steadily fallen over the past seven quarters. "I have no idea what tonight will bring," he concludes, "but the evidence suggests that market expectations are increasingly catching up to reality."

– David Dittman

Nvidia's Huang says "the AI race is on"

Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter revenue of $46.7 billion, up 6% quarter over quarter and 56% year over year, and earnings of $1.05 per share, up 30% sequentially and 54% annually. Wall Street forecast revenue growth of 53% to $46 billion and EPS of $1.01.

Nvidia stock was down more than 4% within minutes of its announcement but has already rebounded.

Management highlighted Blackwell Data Center sequential revenue growth of 17% but also noted "no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter." Gross margin for the quarter was 72.7%.

"Blackwell is the AI platform the world has been waiting for," CEO Jensen Huang said in his prepared remarks, "delivering an exceptional generational leap." Huang said production of Blackwell Ultra "is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary."

Nvidia guided to third-quarter revenue of $54.0 billion, "plus or minus 2%," assuming zero H20 shipments to China. Margin will be 73.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points, and Nvidia reiterated a forecast to exit fiscal 2026 with non-GAAP gross margins in the mid-70% range.

"NVIDIA NVLink rack-scale computing is revolutionary," Huang concluded his press release remarks, "arriving just in time as reasoning AI models drive orders-of-magnitude increases in training and inference performance. The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center."

– David Dittman

CFO Kress says let Nvidia compete globally

Nvidia's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, delivered a fluent and impressive presentation of Nvidia's fiscal 2026 second-quarter financial performance as well as its current operations and technical achievements during her prepared remarks at the top of the AI revolutionary's earnings conference call.

A straight-up appeal to authority is probably the highlight, though, as Kress called on the U.S. government to approve shipments of Nvidia's Blackwell technology to customers in China and open up a potential $2 billion to $5 billion market.

"Every licensed sale will benefit the U.S. economy and advance U.S. leadership," Kress explained. "We want to compete globally and win the support of every developer."

Sovereign AI revenue doubles

Kress also highlighted Nvidia's success with what CEO Jensen Huang described as "sovereign AI" during the company's fiscal 2026 first-quarter conference call.

As for the outlook, Kress noted $7 billion sequential revenue growth and reiterated Nvidia included no H20 shipments to China in its forecast.

The CFO said Nvidia is "accelerating investments to meet the magnitude of its growth opportunity" but continues to expect to end the fiscal year with mid-70% margins.

Huang highlights $3 to $4 trillion opportunity

"Over the next couple of years," CEO Jensen Huang said in his response to the first question during Nvidia's conference call, "we're going to scale into a $3 to $4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity."

Huang highlighted advances in agentic AI models over the past year that have significantly increased computing power.

Nvidia's Blackwell system is built for this moment, Huang said, with its infrastructure enabling AI to adapt and solve problems for many different industries.

– David Dittman

Nvidia is getting more ubiquitous

If the federal government loosens up its restrictions, Nvidia is ready to ship H20 systems to China, according to CFO Colette Kress.

Meanwhile, CEO Jensen Huang, underscoring the complexity of what he said is the most difficult computer science problem in the history of the world, noted that Nvidia's system are in "every cloud" and are usable with every platform.

"The complexity is extraordinary," he said. "It's done at an extreme scale.

"If I can just add one more thing, we're in every cloud for a reason."

He concluded by highlighting that Nvidia's growth opportunity is supported by a holistic solution.

Huang says China is a $50 billion opportunity this year

Jensen Huang said China is a potential $50 billion market "this year" for Nvidia, emphasizing its position as the No. 2 computing country in the world, with AI researchers and robust tech infrastructure.

The CEO said it's important for the U.S. companies to be able to address the Chinese market and reiterated that Nvidia continues to lobby the federal government.

"The American tech stack should be the global standard," Huang said.

Did Nvidia do enough?

Nvidia recovered from its post-earnings announcement after-market lows but was off nearly 3% during the extended session.

CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress continue to describe a major market opportunity in revolutionary terms, using "fourth industrial revolution" as context for what's happening with AI around the world.

Huang noted Nvidia's orders with existing large customers and suggested additional significant upside from other entities such as AI-native start-ups. He also noted enterprise SaaS as well as industrial demand.

"This year is a record-breaking year, and I expect next year to be a record-breaking year as we race toward artificial super-intelligence," Huang said. "The next several years we see really significant growth opportunities ahead."

– David Dittman

Argus lifts Nvidia price target after earnings

Wall Street has been quick to weigh in on Nvidia after the chipmaker's earnings event.

"Nvidia posted fiscal second-quarter revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share that topped Wall Street consensus estimates, and revenue that was above the high end of management's guidance," says Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher. "The stock pulled back in the aftermarket, a move that reflected guidance that beat rather than demolished pre-reporting consensus estimates for fiscal Q3."

And following fiscal 2025, when Nvidia posted record revenue and profits, the company appears poised to build on this momentum, Kelleher adds. Nvidia "has unmatched positioning within transformational AI technology, which is segueing from generative AI to agentic, reasoning AI."

The analyst recommends that investors either establish or add to positions "in this preeminent vehicle for participation in the AI economy," given his belief that the shares have much more room to run.

Kelleher reiterated his Buy rating on Nvidia after earnings and lifted his price target to $220, representing implied upside of more than 20% to the stock's August 27 close.

- Karee Venema

AI startup CEOs: Why is Nvidia so important?

AI has been a major driver for the bull run in the stocks. And of course, one of the biggest beneficiaries has been Nvidia, whose market cap is $4.4 trillion.

Nvidia's earnings reports are among the most widely anticipated among publicly traded companies. But why? We turned to some of the biggest names in the AI startup world to get their takes on the chipmaker and what they watch for in Nvidia earnings.

Nic Adams, co-founder and CEO of 0rcus: Nvidia's gross margins, research and development spending, and data center revenue breakdown are worth monitoring. Gross margins reflect pricing power and efficiency. R&D spending indicates the company's commitment to maintaining its technological lead.

A detailed look at data center revenue, especially the mix between different GPU architectures and networking solutions, provides insight into the adoption rates of its latest products and the health of its core business beyond the headline numbers.

Kevin Surace, CEO of Appvance: Within Nvidia's earnings, investors should take a closer look at several things, including (1) adoption of open-source CUDA replacements (HIP, oneAPI, etc.), which could signal erosion of Nvidia's lock-in, (2) supply/demand imbalances, since shortages have kept pricing abnormally high, and (3) cloud vendor strategies, because if hyperscalers succeed with custom silicon, it reduces their dependence on Nvidia.

These are all leading indicators that tell us whether today's extraordinary growth is the beginning of a decades-long run, or a peak before the market normalizes.

Anurag Gurtu, CEO of Airrived: Nvidia's latest earnings again demonstrate just how central the company has become to the AI revolution.

But as impressive as the numbers are, my view is that investors, enterprises, and policymakers need to look beyond short-term revenue and ask harder questions about sustainability, competition, and concentration risk.

The biggest risk isn't just technical – it's systemic. We've allowed the global AI build-out to rest on one company's supply chain. If Nvidia stumbles, whether due to geopolitics, supply shortages, or regulatory pressures, the ripple effects will be enormous. Investors should recognize that Nvidia's dominance is both a strength and a vulnerability.

- Tom Taulli

Nvidia looks to AI agents to supercharge growth

AI agents are one of the hottest categories in tech. They leverage sophisticated models that engage in reasoning and planning to take actions. Ultimately, AI agents could become digital workers, such as with automating tedious and repetitive tasks.

On Nvidia's earnings call, Jensen Huang talked about this powerful technology:

"At the highest level of growth drivers would be the evolution, the introduction, if you will, of reasoning agentic AI. Where chatbots used to be one shot, you give it a prompt and it would generate the answer, now the AI does research. It thinks and does a plan, and it might use tools. And so it's called long thinking; and the longer it thinks, oftentimes, it produces better answers.”"

What this means is that there will be even more demand for Nvidia GPUs. According to Huang, the compute power for one-shot versus reasoning agentic AI models could be anywhere from 100X to 1,000X.

Regardless, the rise of agentic AI is already having an impact. Says Huang:

"As a result of agentic AI and vision language models, we now are seeing a breakthroughs in physical AI, in robotics, autonomous systems. So in the last year, AI has made tremendous progress and agentic systems, reasoning systems is completely revolutionary."

- Tom Taulli

AI still has plenty of room for growth

Nvidia stock is trading slightly lower mid-afternoon Thursday, even as fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue numbers beat Wall Street's estimates and the third-quarter guidance also came in higher than expected.

"Unfortunately, it fell short of the whisper number," says Stephen Callahan, trading behavior specialist at Firstrade. "This was probably because they didn't include sales to China. The small selloff was probably a knee-jerk overreaction to missing the whisper number on the guidance."

Callahan adds that Nvidia is likely just being conservative with its guidance and "if they put a number out there now that includes China, they would be making it up."

Still, what Nvidia did guide for ($54 billion in revenue for fiscal Q3) is a good sign for the broader tech sector and AI. "There may be bumps in the road ahead, but overall, the AI sector has a lot of room to grow," Callahan says.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia and China: Takes from Gabelli and Freedom Capital Markets

Nvidia's latest earnings event underscored considerable anxiety about the impact of the Chinese market. Yet the quarter still delivered impressive numbers, highlighting the company's dominant position in AI infrastructure.

But as you dig into the report and earnings call, there were certainly some nuances:

John Belton, portfolio manager of Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF:

Jensen Huang has suggested China could be a $50 billion annualized revenue opportunity for Nvidia, which is clearly significant.

That said, I view it as more of a "nice to have." It's good for the U.S. if Nvidia is allowed to operate in China – and I believe they will be.

One reason they didn't beat by more in the July quarter is that they had no H20 sales to Chinese customers. That was a little unexpected, as many thought they'd be able to generate some revenue toward the tail end of the quarter once export licenses were reinstated.

On the guidance side, it was encouraging that management sized a $2 billion to $5 billion potential tailwind if they can sell existing inventory. Plugging that in suggests there would have been meaningful upside to Street numbers in the guide as well.

Now, there are headlines that they're in discussions with the U.S. about a new China-compliant Blackwell product, which could be an even bigger opportunity than the H20. So, China remains a major opportunity. It's a market they will be able to participate in, all the steps are progressing as they should, and the expectations miss feels more like a short-term issue I'm not overly focused on.

Paul Meeks, managing director at Freedom Capital Markets:

A lot of good news was already baked into the stock price. Investors are starting to get a little concerned because there's still no deal with China. That raises the question: How strong is the guidance really, given how much depends on that?

The Trump administration has pushed the dispute out another 90 days, so we won't get clarity anytime soon – it's still a couple of months away.

Ideally, the eventual resolution will be a big, comprehensive deal that covers tariffs with China, export controls on AI chips for Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and even the future of TikTok's U.S. operations.

What we know is that Nvidia and AMD have voracious demand, not just from U.S. customers, but internationally – and from China, if they're allowed to ship. The real question is supply, and specifically, supply to China.

- Tom Taulli

Nvidia closes lower after earnings

Nvidia stock opened marginally higher Thursday, but quickly dropped into negative territory and stayed there through the remainder of the session.

When the closing bell rang, shares were off 0.7%, even as the broader market enjoyed modest gains.

Despite its post-earnings pullback, CFRA Research Angelo Zino lifted his price target on the chip stock to $210 from $206, and raised his earnings-per-share estimates for fiscal years 2026, 2027 and 2028.

"We come away optimistic about NVDA's growing addressable market and the sustainability of spending plans from hyperscalers, with levels moderating after the Big 4 virtually doubled capex spend the last two years," Zino writes. "Although we currently assume no revenue from China on the data center side for the October quarter, as it looks for geopolitical issues to subside, NVDA cited strong interest and the potential to ship $2 billion to $5 billion in H20."

Zino also believes U.S. approval of Blackwell chip sales in China "will unlock significantly higher revenue potential."

That's a wrap for us for Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter earnings event. Join us in November when we will live blog all the news on the company's fiscal Q3 print.

- Karee Venema

Sure, that stock you bought last year has doubled, but have you ever picked a 10-bagger – one that went up 10 times your purchase price? What about a 100-bagger, or maybe even a 1,000-bagger?

Such things exist. We looked back to the turn of the century to see which stocks created the most wealth over nearly 25 years.

We started with the S&P 1500, an index tracking a broad swath of U.S. stocks of all sizes, and used return data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To make our top-10 list, a stock had to return more than 30,000%. The S&P 1500, by the way, has returned 666% in the same period.

Some stars of the 21st century didn't make the cut simply because they haven't shone quite long enough. Netflix (NFLX) is one. The DVD shipper-turned-streamer debuted its stock in May 2002, a little late for this list. But since its initial public offering, Netflix has returned more than 100,000%.

Still, our top 10 is loaded with power hitters. How did they do it, and what's next for these best-of-the-best companies? Read on to find out. (Prices and returns are as of June 30, unless otherwise noted.)

1. Monster Beverage

• 25-year cumulative total return: 155,103%
• Growth of $1,000: $1,551,030

Monster Beverage (MNST) is a monster, indeed. The company was known as Hansen Natural, having started in the 1930s as a seller of juices. By 2012, shareholders voted to change the company's name to Monster, reflecting the line of energy drinks that today make up more than 90% of revenue.

The sellers of these drinks, which contain more caffeine and sugar than traditional soft drinks, market them as boosting physical and mental energy. Monster is now the biggest player in a global market estimated at $90 billion in sales, with a 46% share in North America, according to Morningstar analyst Dan Su.

The key to dominance was a 2015 deal with Coca-Cola (KO) that saw the beverage giant distribute Monster products worldwide in exchange for a stake in the company that stands at about 20% today.

The energy-drink category is still growing faster than most beverages, and there's a new offshoot: performance beverages, or "better-for-you" drinks," which are often sugar-free and more narrowly target athletes and health-conscious consumers.

Andrew Strelzik, of BMO Capital Markets, who has a Hold rating on the consumer staples stock, says Monster has lost share in the category recently. Nonetheless, Monster shares have gained more than 20% since sales growth picked up in the fourth quarter.

That has left a number of analysts saying the market is now too confident about the firm's prospects. According to S&P Global, just 14 of 26 analysts who follow the stock have a Buy rating on Monster; three give it the rare Sell.

2. Nvidia

• 25-year cumulative total return: 126,100%
• Growth of $1,000: $1,261,000

As investors, we were always told that once a small company becomes a big one, and then a huge one, growth rates have to fall to reasonable levels. That's just math.

Then came Nvidia (NVDA). The company recorded $44 billion in sales in the quarter that ended April 27, up nearly 70% from the same quarter the year before.

Analysts estimate Nvidia will record roughly $200 billion in sales in the fiscal year that ends in January, up from $130 billion in the prior year and just $27 billion two years before that.

Nvidia invented the computer chips called graphics processing units. GPUs can execute more complex processes than traditional computer chips can, making them the best option not only for video games but also for artificial intelligence.

"Nvidia took an early lead in AI GPU hardware, but more important, developed a proprietary software platform," says Morningstar's Brian Colello. These tools allow AI developers to build their models with Nvidia and makes it less likely another chip designer will emerge as a leader in AI training.

Colello estimates Nvidia's fair value at $140 per share, about 11% below its recent close. That makes him conservative by Wall Street standards, as 59 of 75 analysts have a Buy rating on the tech stock. The median target price for the shares over the next 18 months is $175 a share, with the high $250, according to S&P Global.

"AI is growing faster than any platform shift before, including internet, mobile and cloud," says analyst C.J. Muse of investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald, who names Nvidia a "top pick."

3. Apple

• 25-year cumulative total return: 91,686%
• Growth of $1,000: $916,860

At the turn of the century, Apple (AAPL) was just showing signs of life after the first few years of founder Steve Jobs's return. We hadn't yet seen the iconic products that have made Apple what it is today. The iPod came in 2001, the iPhone debuted in 2007, and the iPad arrived in 2010.

The firm had just under $8 billion in revenue in the fiscal year ending September 2000; in fiscal 2024, it had nearly $400 billion in sales, with the iPhone making up just over $200 billion of that.

Services, a business unit that was inconceivable in the last century, brought in $96 billion. It includes its warranty program AppleCare, cloud storage, digital content sales and its Apple Pay system.

Now, Apple has what analysts call an ecosystem – an interlinked product suite of computers, phones, tablets and watches. Call it "sticky" – when you get deeper into Apple's world, you're more likely to buy more Apple products than to switch.

It has generally been a bad idea to bet against Apple over the past 25 years. But should you buy in right now? Only 26 of the 49 analysts who cover Apple say yes with their Buy ratings. The stock trades at 28 times expected earnings for the year ahead, above its historical average.

Others are advising clients to pause on Apple for now. Martin Yang, of Oppenheimer, who rates the stock a Hold, says Apple's high valuation, lack of apps that allow consumers to use AI, and stronger competition in China and emerging markets will keep it from increasing sales and profits above expectations.

4. Booking Holdings

• 25-year cumulative total return: 74,343%
• Growth of $1,000: $743,430

So many moments of the 1990s tech boom are now just faded memories. But William Shatner, the Star Trek icon and former spokesman for Priceline.com, still pops up in their ads today.

Priceline the company, however, became Booking Holdings (BKNG) in 2018. The name change recognized that Booking.com, a European-focused hotel-reservation site that Priceline bought in 2005 for just $135 million, is the company's dominant business. (The company's other well-known properties include Kayak, OpenTable and Asian site Agoda.)

That makes Booking the biggest and most geographically diversified of the travel sites. RBC Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson, who likes the stock, says that "under almost any" economic scenario, the company "should fare better than most."

The company's most recent results showed weakness in U.S. travel, but the damage was limited by Booking's "uniquely broad geographic exposure," he says.

One big worry for Booking and its peers? Travelers using AI, rather than legacy travel sites, to plan vacations.

Erickson says he recently used four AI platforms to look at hotel rooms; only one let him make the reservation. Travel sites that allow users to complete a transaction may be more insulated from AI, or even helped by it if they are larger, better-known brands.

5. Tractor Supply Company

• 25-year cumulative total return: 60,133%
• Growth of $1,000: $601,330

If you live in one of America's large cities, you may think Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is an industrial parts maker. It's actually a retailer with tens of millions of loyal customers who bought nearly $15 billion worth of their agricultural and animal products there last year.

The Tennessee-based company says its customers have above-average incomes and a lower-than-average cost of living, which is a nice combination to insulate the retailer from economic problems.

Tractor Supply has more than 2,500 stores in 49 states, with about 200 under the banner of Petsense, which it acquired in 2016. The care and feeding of animals is a major part of the business mix: Its livestock, equine and agriculture segment made up 26% of sales in 2024; pets bring in another 25%.

Analyst Joseph Feldman, of Telsey Advisory Group, says the company has room to grow: Tractor Supply plans 100 store openings per year from 2026 through 2030. Its Neighbor's Club loyalty program, which added 6 million members in the past year to reach 40 million, is targeted to reach 55 million in 2030.

Tractor Supply plans to boost sales at existing locations by building out garden centers.

"Overall, we expect the company to continue gaining market share and dominating in rural America," says Feldman. He recommends the consumer discretionary stock and says it could see $60 a share within the next 12 months, about a 13% gain from its recent close.

6. Texas Pacific Land

• 25-year cumulative total return: 55,580%
• Growth of $1,000: $555,800

For most of its first 100-plus years on the New York Stock Exchange, the stock price of Texas Pacific Land (TPL) was as flat as the western prairie. The company traces its roots to a failed attempt to establish a railroad in the 1870s; when it went bankrupt, it placed the land assembled for the project into a trust.

Eventually, oil and gas explorers found the Permian Basin under that dry and dusty Texas land, and the company began to collect royalties. By the turn of the 20th century, it was still a small business: Peak annual revenue was $13.1 million, according to S&P.

Things have improved. Texas Pacific Land collected $706 million in royalty revenue in 2024. And because the company has none of the expenses of drilling, extracting or processing, it is debt-free and has huge profit margins, reporting $454 million in net income last year.

But since 2021, most of the stock's gain has come not from the company's energy bona fides but from speculation that it's an artificial intelligence play. The idea – which TPL embraces – is that companies needing data centers and computing power will build on top of a natural source of energy.

In a May investor call, Chief Financial Officer Chris Steddum said, "we continue to advance discussions" with the owners of data centers. But there's no revenue from that yet.

Earnings estimates are scarce, but the shares trade at a lofty 53 times the past 12 months' earnings, according to S&P Global. Investors seem to be betting on a projection, not an existing business.

7. Old Dominion Freight Line

• 25-year cumulative total return: 40,227%
• Growth of $1,000: $402,270

This North Carolina company keeps on trucking. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is a "less-than-truckload carrier," which means it's willing to accept small shipments – and needs to operate a network of terminals to store its customers' freight.

Year after year, Old Dominion has invested in that network, and it now has more than 200 terminals across the U.S.

"Old Dominion remains committed to playing the long game," says analyst Patrick Tyler Brown, of investment firm Raymond James.

The company is not unionized, which minimizes labor costs. That helped Old Dominion to offer competitive pricing to win new customers when national competitor Yellow collapsed in 2023.

The trucking business is highly dependent on the economy, and fears of a recession have clipped the shares in 2025; they trade at about 30% below their 52-week high. Just eight of 25 analysts who follow the stock are bullish, with three slapping a Sell on the shares.

One is Emily Nasseff Mitsch, of CFRA, who sees the stock headed to $117 a share over the next 12 months, implying a loss of nearly 30% from recent levels, as increased competition and economic uncertainty lead to lower profit margins.

8. Deckers Outdoor

• 25-year cumulative total return: 35,238%
• Growth of $1,000: $352,380

In the world of fashion, one home run can make a company successful. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has now scored two.

The company started in 1973 in California as a maker of flip-flops, then expanded into sandals with the Teva brand. In 1995, two years after the company sold its stock to the public, Deckers bought the company that made UGG boots. In 1998, Oprah Winfrey featured the boots on her show, and a fashion craze began.

UGGs peaked more than a decade ago, and Deckers has spent considerable time trying to revive the brand, with some success. In the meantime, the company spotted and acquired another wildly successful shoe: Hoka, created by two French trail runners in 2009.

Deckers reportedly paid just $1.1 million for the business in 2012, when it had less than $3 million in sales. Now, it probably accounts for over half of Deckers's $15 billion market capitalization (stock price times shares outstanding), says Morningstar analyst David Swartz. "It must be regarded as one of the most successful acquisitions in the apparel and footwear space ever."

So far in 2025, however, the company has warned that results for the quarter ending in June could come in below expectations, and has declined to provide guidance for the full fiscal year ending March 2026, given economic uncertainty, including the prospect of U.S. tariffs. (Deckers makes most of its products in Vietnam.)

Investors have cut the price of the stock in half this year – which some analysts believe presents a buying opportunity.

Given two market-leading brands, a robust balance sheet and industry-leading profit margins, analyst Zachary Warring, of CFRA, calls Deckers "best-in-class" and rates it a Strong Buy.

9. Tyler Technologies

• 25-year cumulative total return: 35,031%
• Growth of $1,000: $350,310

Tyler Technologies (TYL) sells software and services to local governments – over $2 billion worth in the past year.

Its products include software that ties together human resources, finance and other departments; a management system for local courts; and software that lets governments take payments. Many of the existing systems that governments use are badly out of date and must be replaced, not repaired, giving Tyler more opportunity.

Tyler can weather broader economic challenges better than software companies that sell to businesses, says Trevor Walsh, an analyst at Citizens Capital Markets & Advisory.

But the view that Tyler is a defensive software stock has made it an expensive software stock. Sales have increased about 10% per year over the past three years – modest for the industry. Yet the shares trade at more than 50 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, a ratio that's roughly double the average of the 35 application-software companies in the S&P 1500, according to S&P Global.

Walsh says Tyler's strong cash flow and market leadership warrant the premium, and more: His 12-month target price for the shares, $700, implies about 18% upside from the stock's recent close. Wall Street generally backs that view; 15 of 20 analysts rate the shares a Buy.

10. Comfort Systems USA

• 25-year cumulative total return: 31,332%
• Growth of $1,000: $313,320

Comfort Systems' (FIX) job is to cool buildings – but its shares have been red-hot. The company is a provider of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.

For years, Comfort Systems bought up smaller companies in its highly fragmented industry, primarily in the South. The company emphasizes that its 19,000-person workforce is nonunion, making labor costs lower.

Annual profits have grown from $13 million in 2001 to nearly $600 million today. The balance sheet is nearly debt-free, and the company has raised its dividend 13 years straight.

Investors are excited about the future. The data centers and chip manufacturing plants necessary for AI need robust cooling systems. About 62% of Comfort Systems' revenue comes from its industrial business; a little more than half of that is tech-related.

Seven of eight analysts following the industrial stock are bullish, including Stifel's Brian Brophy. The company's "outsized exposure to data centers and manufacturing construction sets up for a favorable demand environment in the next several years," he says.

This item first appeared in Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine, a monthly, trustworthy source of advice and guidance. Subscribe to help you make more money and keep more of the money you make here.

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Stocks opened cautiously higher Tuesday as market participants took in the latest inflation data and the unofficial start of second-quarter earnings season. But enthusiasm waned as the session wore on, with two of the three main benchmarks closing in negative territory.

Ahead of the open, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month over month in June and 2.7% year over year. This was quicker than what was seen in May but in line with economists' forecasts.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was also higher than the month prior, but matched consensus estimates.

Some "goods" areas, such as furniture, appliances and electronics, saw rising prices and were likely a result of tariff pass-throughs, says John Luke Tyner, portfolio manager and fixed income analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors.

As for the positives in the June CPI report, Tyner points to "continued softening in shelter, car insurance and airfares," which helps "alleviate service pressures that have been problematic over the last several years."

Tyner adds that while tariffs haven't lifted inflation as much as feared just yet, it's still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and is unlikely to change the central bank's stance on keeping interest rates unchanged.

Indeed, futures traders are currently pricing in a 97% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its next policy meeting in late July.

MP Materials jumps on big Apple deal

In single-stock news, MP Materials (MP) shares soared 20.0% after the mining company announced a $500 million deal with Apple (AAPL).

Under the terms of the agreement, MP will provide the tech giant with rare earth magnets that are manufactured in the U.S. from 100% recycled materials.

MP Materials is the only rare earth producer in the U.S., and the magnets are critical in consumer electronics, including smartphones and computers.

"This collaboration deepens our vertical integration, strengthens supply chain resilience, and reinforces America's industrial capacity at a pivotal moment," said MP Materials CEO James Litinsky.

Nvidia rally sends Nasdaq to new high

Apple, for its part, rose 0.2% – but it was hardly the best blue chip stock today. That honor went to Nvidia (NVDA), which rallied 4.0% on news the semiconductor manufacturer will be allowed to sell its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips in China.

NVDA shares went into a tailspin earlier this year after the Trump administration ramped up restrictions on China. But the chip stock has rebounded in recent months and last week, became the first company to top a $4 trillion market cap.

Nvidia's gain helped keep the Nasdaq Composite above water today, with the tech-heavy index climbing 0.2% to 20,677 – a new all-time closing high.

However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1% to 44,023 and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,243 due in part to weakness in financial stocks.

Bank stocks hold back the S&P 500

Among the day's most notable decliners was Wells Fargo (WFC), which plunged 5.5% after earnings.

While the big bank beat top- and bottom-line Q2 estimates, it lowered its full-year net interest income guidance.

"The good news was bad loans were down indicating more stable credit quality allowing for better than expected profits," says Brian Mulberry, senior client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management.

And while Mulberry says that weakness in the NII segment "is a concern in the short term," this pressure could lift if interest rates move lower later this year.

Wells Fargo wasn't alone in its post-earnings weakness. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -0.8%) and BlackRock (BLK, -5.8%) also fell in the wake of their Q2 results.

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Nvidia (NVDA) disclosed its fiscal first-quarter earnings report after the close Wednesday, May 28.

Nvidia earnings have become one of Wall Street's most anticipated events thanks to snowballing demand for all things artificial intelligence (AI).

Management reported expectations-beating year-over-year revenue growth of 69% to $44.1 billion and earnings of 81 cents per share. Analysts were calling for earnings of 73 cents per share on revenue of $43.2 billion.

As a result, NVDA stock is poised for a notable gain in Thursday's session.

The Kiplinger team is reporting live on Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what the results could mean for you and your portfolio.

Scroll for the latest updates.

What Is AI? Artificial Intelligence 101 | Best AI Stocks to Buy | 10 Major AI Companies You Should Know

What time is Nvidia's earnings release?

Nvidia will release its first-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, May 28. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The release of Nvidia's earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.

- Karee Venema

What Jensen Huang had to say at Computex 2025

Ahead of next week's big earnings event, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered the keynote address at Computex 2025, a global computing tech show.

Speaking to a crowd of more than 4,000 people, the executive cheered the Trump administration's recent decision to suspend former President Joe Biden's tiered restrictions on AI chip exports to China.

The AI market in China has extreme growth potential, Huang noted, and could reach $50 billion this year.

Nvidia said in April it expects to incur $5.5 billion in additional costs in its first quarter due to new licensing requirements put in place by the Trump administration.

Other announcements Huang made during Computex included a joint venture between Nvidia, Foxconn Hon Hai Technology Group and the Taiwan government to build an AI factory supercomputer.

Huang also discussed NVLink Fusion, a new architecture that will allow hyperscalers to create semi-custom compute solutions.

"This technology aims to break down traditional data center bottlenecks, enabling a new level of AI scale and more flexible, optimized system designs tailored to specific AI workloads," Nvidia stated in a blog post.

Huang's keynote address at Computex "positioned NVDA as the dominant AI infrastructure player, drawing parallels to electricity and Internet transformations," said CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia stock gets a pre-earnings price-target cut

UBS Global Research analyst Timothy Arcuri recently cut his price target on Nvidia stock to $175 from $180, representing implied upside of roughly 32% to current levels. He maintains a Buy rating.

Despite the Trump administration's restrictions on exports of the company's H20 chips to China, which will result in $15 billion in lost revenue according to Nvidia, Arcuri still expects a top-line beat.

He also believes the chipmaker will give stronger-than-expected second-quarter revenue guidance.

"This should be enough to satisfy investors because many (about half) expect revenue to be guided down quarter to quarter," Arcuri says.

He adds that he expects growth to reaccelerate in the second half of the year "as GB300 racks start to ship late in the third quarter and NVDA is potentially allowed to resume shipments of data center GPUs to China with a modified Blackwell-based SKU."

Still, Arcuri is targeting below-Street earnings of 76 cents per share for Q1 on a gross margin of roughly 58.5%.

"Aside from this noise, we do expect a confident overall tone on the call, but the company could slightly temper second-half gross margin commentary because it is sticking with the Bianca compute board configuration for GB300 and pushing the higher margin Cordelia boards to Rubin next year," he notes.

- Karee Venema

Wedbush reiterates Outperform on top-rated Nvidia

Nvidia remains one of the highest-rated Dow Jones stocks. Of the 62 analysts covering the name who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 42 say it's a Strong Buy, 12 have it at Buy, seven say Hold and one has it at Strong Sell.

This works out to a consensus Strong Buy recommendation.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson reiterated his Outperform (Buy) recommendation on Nvidia on May 22.

Bryson says the main question for Nvidia's fiscal first-quarter earnings results and forward guidance is whether the company can boost sales to offset the loss of revenue from H20 restrictions on China.

The analyst believes that demand was running ahead of expectations before the early April announcement on new licensing requirements, and Blackwell shipments have ramped up quicker than expected.

"Net, we remain comfortable with our first-quarter and consensus estimates at $43 billion (particularly with NVDA having consistently embedded some conservatism into forecasts during the last few years of explosive growth)," Bryson writes in a note to clients.

He also notes that Nvidia's guidance could matter less this time around, "as investors become more confident around NVDA's intermediate-term growth outlook following recent announcements around planned AI data center investments."

- Karee Venema

Snowflake earnings signal strong enterprise AI demand

After the close on Wednesday, May 21, cloud-based data platform Snowflake (SNOW) disclosed its fiscal first-quarter results.

For the three months ending April 30, Snowflake reported earnings of 24 cents per share (+71.4% YoY) on revenue of $1.04 billion (+26% YoY).

Analysts expected SNOW to report earnings of 21 cents per share on revenue of $1.01 billion.

The company also said product revenue was up 26% to $996.8 million and its net revenue retention rate was 124%. It now has 606 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue of more than $1 million.

SNOW raised its fiscal second-quarter revenue of $1.035 billion to $1.04 billion on strong enterprise demand for AI products.

"Snowflake delivered strong fiscal Q1 results on broad-based demand and steady consumption trends," says Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron. "In addition, better-than-expected Snowpark and Dynamic Tables activity and strong AI adoption suggest that newer products are resonating with customers."

Kidron has an Outperform (Buy) rating on SNOW and says it's a "top pick," adding that if "macro conditions hold, we see room for upside, especially considering the still-nascent AI opportunity, continued product expansion, and the maturing sales/GTM motion."

- Karee Venema

OpenAI buys Jony Ive's artificial intelligence company

Artificial intelligence bellwether OpenAI announced Wednesday evening that it will buy Jony Ive's AI devices startup, io, in an all-equity deal valued at roughly $6.4 billion.

Ive is most well-known as the former chief design officer at Apple (AAPL) who played a pivotal role in the look of the tech giant's suite of products. And his company is "focused on developing products that inspire, empower and enable," said OpenAI in a statement.

The startup "will now merge with OpenAI to work more intimately with the research, engineering and product teams in San Francisco."

"We've been waiting for the next big thing for 20 years," said OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. "We want to bring people something beyond the legacy products we've been using for so long."

This is OpenAI's biggest purchase to date and follows recent news that the company is buying AI coding company Windsurf for $3 billion.

The goal of the merger is to build AI-capable consumer products, but Tech Radar says a smartphone is unlikely to make the list.

"Instead, most expect the duo to focus on wearables like earbuds and smartwatches that could be enhanced with, for instance, cameras that could see your surroundings and use onboard AI to help you act on and react to them," writes Lance Ulanoff, editor at large for Tech Radar.

- Karee Venema

How did Nvidia do in Q4?

Nvidia's results for its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter were released in late February. The company reported earnings of 89 cents per share on $39.3 billion in revenue, beating analysts' estimates for earnings of 85 cents per share on revenue of $38.1 billion.

NVDA stock closed just above its intraday low at $120.15 on February 27, down 8.5%. It was the blue chip's worst one-day decline since the January 27 DeepSeek sell-off, when NVDA was down 17%.

And it was the worst post-earnings announcement performance since February 17, 2022, when the AI stock shed 7.6%.

Nvidia continued to slide over the next six or so weeks and was down nearly 30% for the year to date in early April. Shares have staged an impressive rebound, though, and are now nearly flat for the YTD.

Nvidia stock has been a buy-and-hold investor's dream

Nvidia stock has been a solid choice for those seeking out the best long-term investment stocks.

Indeed, shares have averaged an annual total return (price change plus dividends) of 38.3% over the past 20 years, easily outpacing the S&P 500's 10.4% gain.

"The potential of being an undisputed leader in an industry that will indisputably mushroom is one reason Nvidia stock has increased by over 1,000% from the fall of 2022 midway into 2024," writes Kiplinger contributor Louis Navellier.

"Yes, NVDA has always been a grower. From earnings per share of just 1 cent in 2005, the company reported earnings per share of $1.21 for its fiscal year 2023. That represents an average annual growth of 27.1% per year," he adds.

Read more: Nvidia Stock's Been Growing for Years. Just Look At Its 100,000% Return

Nvidia remains a top AI stock, says Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer reiterated an Outperform rating on Nvidia stock Thursday, adding that it "remains best positioned in AI, in our view, benefiting from full-stack AI hardware/software and unique rack-level approach."

The analyst says that production of Nvidia's "flagship GB200 rack-scale systems appears to have moved past their initial 'growing pains,'" and he believes "Blackwell 200/300 NVL72 equivalent volumes still on track to meet or exceed 40,000 this year."

For Nvidia's fiscal Q1, Schafer expects above-Street earnings of 92 cents per share. He also anticipates data center revenue growth of greater than 8% quarter to quarter and roughly 71% year over year.

NVDA's data center segment accounts for 90% of total revenue.

- Karee Venema

Apple becomes Trump's latest tariff target

Apple is the latest target of President Trump's tariff threats. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he "long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone's that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else."

Trump added that if this is not the case, "a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S."

Reuters reported in late April that the tech giant is planning to move most of its manufacturing for iPhones sold in the U.S. to India by the end of this year.

A more recent report in The Financial Times indicates Apple is proceeding with its plans to build a $1.5 billion components plant near Chennai, India.

In a May 16 note to clients, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote that Apple's "aggressive push towards India production has been a very smart strategic move given the uncertain tariff environment facing Apple in China."

He added that he anticipates "more pressure from the Trump Administration on Apple to build iPhone production in the U.S.," but doing so "would result in an iPhone price point that is a non-starter for Cupertino and translate into iPhone prices of ~$3,500."

- Karee Venema

Nvidia is attractively valued given its AI pole position, says Stifel

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy says Nvidia remains "attractively valued" based on its leadership position in the AI industry.

And despite concerns over hyperscaler demand and the sustainability of infrastructure spending as well as worries over the impact of China export restrictions, Roy does not expect its dominance to fade.

The analyst, like many others, anticipates an in-line fiscal Q1 print thanks to demand for the company's H200 GPUs and the ramp-up of its GB200 superchips.

Roy also believes Nvidia's new strategic partnership with Humain – a Saudi Arabian AI company – will boost its top line by an additional $800 million to $1 billion.

Earlier this month, Nvidia announced it will sell more than 18,000 of its AI GPUs – including its GB300 Blackwell chips – to Humain.

- Karee Venema

Huang wants AI to address labor shortages

Just before he departed after the Computex 2025 and GTC Taipei conferences, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took time to say Taiwan should "expand its opportunity" with "agentic artificial intelligence" (AI) and robotics to address a domestic labor shortage.

Speaking to reporters at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel on his way to Taipei Sonshan Airport, Huang said 2025 will be a "very exciting" year as AI can now reason.

"It can now think step by step by step and solve problems it has never seen before – it's called agentic AI, AI agents," Huang explained.

The leader of the AI revolution said AI agents will help people plan vacations and streamline workflows.

It will also accelerate robotics development. "The technology has also reached a level where we can have robotics. Here in Taiwan, we have many great ideas, but there are not enough people," Huang said. "Now with AI and robots, Taiwan can expand its opportunity."

The CEO said Blackwell production is expanding in Taiwan. "All of our partners are in full production, and the excitement is so great all over the island.

"We're going to bring AI all over the world."

- David Dittman

Hedge funds sold out of Nvidia in Q1

Hedge funds were net sellers of Nvidia stock in the first quarter – a time frame that saw the semiconductor stock slide nearly 20%.

According to WhaleWisdom, 59 hedge funds closed out of their NVDA positions completely over the three-month period and 327 reduced their stakes.

This compares to 49 hedge funds that initiated new positions and 337 that increased their stakes.

The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to -77.3 million shares.

Read more: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks

CoreWeave strength bodes well for Nvidia stock

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares have displayed impressive strength in recent weeks, easing worries after a lackluster IPO.

CRWV started as a crypto mining firm before shifting to cloud computing. Its main business now involves renting AI infrastructure to developers. And its share price has more than doubled since its late-March public offering.

Most recently, the tech stock got a boost after Nvidia revealed it owned 24.2 million shares of CRWV, equating to a 7% stake.

Nvidia also counts itself as one of CoreWeave's many high-profile customers. Meta Platforms (META), OpenAI, IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT) are also included among its clientele.

CoreWeave "has done an impressive job delivering GPUs and piecing together data center capacity in a constrained power market to capture share on the back of a strong demand backdrop for compute to power AI workloads," wrote Needham analyst Mike Cikos in a May 16 note.

Cikos has a Buy rating on CRWV, saying the company's recent earnings report "demonstrated the massive market opportunity and strong execution."

For the three months ending March 31, CoreWeave reported revenue of $981.6 million – a marked improvement over the $188.7 million from the year-ago period.

Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose to $606.1 million from $104.5 million.

The company also unveiled a strategic deal with OpenAI that will add $11.2 billion to its revenue backlog.

- Karee Venema

Can Nvidia hit a new high after earnings?

As of Thursday's closing bell, 96% of the S&P 500 Index had reported "actual results" this earnings season.

According to FactSet, 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, and 63% have reported a positive revenue surprise. FactSet also found that "few S&P 500 companies have withdrawn EPS guidance for 2025."

All things considered, especially expectations about forward-looking guidance, it's been a good few weeks.

And, yet, the whole season still seems to ride on what a single company will say.

So, is Nvidia still making the AI revolution?

Virtus Investment Partners senior managing director Joe Terranova said this week on CNBC he "wouldn't be surprised to see the stock make a move towards" its "all-time high." That's $153.

Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer reiterated an Overweight (or "Buy") rating and a $175 12-month price target on Thursday. The highest target on Wall Street for NVDA stock is $220. And Stifel analyst Ruben Roy underscored his Buy rating and $180 target on Friday.

Roy said investors will focus on hyperscaler demand and sustainability of infrastructure investment, potential incremental impacts related to China export restrictions, and potential margin pressure.

"We do not expect any change to NVDA’s leadership positioning in shaping global AI infrastructure," Roy concludes, "and we continue to view shares as attractively valued within the context of that positioning."

- David Dittman

The stock market is closed on Monday

Investors and speculators will have one fewer day to position for Nvidia earnings this time around, with the U.S., stock market closed on Monday, May 26, in observance of the Memorial Day holiday.

Markets will reopen at 9 am Eastern Standard Time on Tuesday, May 27, for regular trading hours.

Read more: Stock Market Holidays in 2025: NYSE, NASDAQ and Wall Street Holidays

Salesforce joins Nvidia on the earnings stage

Nvidia is just one of several tech companies reporting earnings this week. For instance, Salesforce (CRM) will also disclose its fiscal first-quarter results after Wednesday's close.

Stifel analyst Brian Schwartz has an Outperform (Buy) rating on CRM, saying the company is "one of the healthiest long-term profitable growth stories in our SaaS/applications software universe."

For CRM's fiscal Q1, Schwartz says, "the earnings risk looks more favorable on low expectations."

And while he thinks the material impact from Agentforce – CRM's platform to deploy AI agents – is further out, he expects management to provide strong commentary on the "investable theme."

As a group, analysts are targeting fiscal first-quarter earnings of $2.55 per share (+4.5% YoY) on revenue of $9.7 billion (+6.6% YoY).

Read more: Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week

Nvidia stock has been volatile after earnings

Nvidia stock has made some big post-earnings moves in the past two years. Here's a quick rundown of NVDA's single-session returns the day after the chipmaker reported earnings:

• Q4 Fiscal 2025 (reported February 26, 2025): -8.5%
• Q3 Fiscal 2025 (reported November 20, 2024): +0.5%
• Q2 Fiscal 2025 (reported August 28, 2024): -6.4%
• Q1 Fiscal 2025 (reported May 22, 2024): +9.3%
• Q4 Fiscal 2024 (reported February 21, 2024): +16.4%
• Q3 Fiscal 2024 (reported November 21, 2023): +0.8%
• Q2 Fiscal 2024 (reported August 23, 2023): +3.2%
• Q1 Fiscal 2024 (reported May 24, 2023): +24.4%

This time around, options traders are pricing in a potential 7% post-earnings move in either direction, according to Yahoo Finance.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia's growth story is intact, says CFRA

After a turbulent start to the year for Nvidia, which included a rotation out of growthier tech stocks and concerns over AI spending sparked by China's lower-cost DeepSeek model, the clouds appear to be parting, says CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino.

"Our outlook on NVDA has considerably improved in recent weeks with favorable policy shifts, including more lenient China tariffs and the scrapping of the AI diffusion rule, though uncertainty remains around the 232 semiconductor investigation," Zino writes in a note to clients.

The "232 semiconductor investigation" was initiated by the Trump administration to uncover the impact of pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports on national security.

Zino adds that the new deal with Saudi Arabia's Humain "demonstrates NVDA's strategic importance in U.S. trade negotiations," while Q1 earnings from several mega caps "have also reinforced AI investment visibility, with customers maintaining or increasing their 2025 capex plans."

As a result, Zino thinks "NVDA's content growth story in data centers will extend through at least 2027, supported by its product pipeline" that includes "B300, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra (new architecture with higher GPU server count)."

Zino notes that Nvidia's upcoming earnings report creates a risk for the stock, but he views " any pullbacks as enhanced buying opportunities given the better policy backdrop and customer visibility."

- Karee Venema

Nvidia to launch a cheaper Blackwell AI chip

Nvidia was higher in pre-market trading Tuesday morning, a day after Reuters reported the chipmaker will introduce a scaled-down Blackwell AI chipset in China in response to U.S. export restrictions on the H20 unit.

The new China option will be priced between $6,500 and $8,000 vs $10,000 to $12,000 for H20, according to Reuters.

Nvidia plans to start producing the cheaper chipset, weaker specifications and simpler manufacturing requirements in June.

A spokesperson for Nvidia told Reuters the company is still considering "limited" options.

"Until we settle on a new product design and receive approval from the U.S. government," the spokesperson said, "we are effectively foreclosed from China's $50 billion data center market."

China accounted for approximately 13% of Nvidia's sales during the trailing 12 months. That's down from more than 20% during fiscal 2024.

- David Dittman

Nvidia boasts a red-hot 20-year return

Nvidia's share price has gone through some notable ups and downs over its 26 years as a publicly traded company, but its long-term trend has always been up and to the right.

Indeed, Nvidia has been one of the best stocks to own over that time frame and created more than $309 billion in shareholder value between January 1999 and December 2020, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Looked at another way, over its life as a publicly traded company, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return of 36.3%. The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, returned an annualized 10.4% over the same period.

Read more: If You'd Put $1,000 Into Nvidia Stock 20 Years Ago, Here's What You'd Have Today

Pros outweigh cons ahead of Nvidia earnings

Investors should be wary of Nvidia's guidance for its fiscal second quarter, says Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore, given that the H20 ban on China creates a 10% headwind to the company's July quarter revenue that has not been factored into consensus estimates.

"There is simply no offset to this. Blackwell demand is very strong … but they are supply-constrained, and lost H20 does not result in more Blackwell supply," Moore notes.

As a result, there is some downside risk heading into tomorrow's print given a stale consensus outlook.

However, the analyst calls Nvidia a "top pick" among semiconductors, saying that near-term issues have been well-telegraphed and "the path to a second-half reacceleration is clear."

Moore's conviction is "driven by the fact that literally everyone we talk to in the space is telling us that they have been surprised by inference demand, and there is a scramble to add GPUs."

He adds that "LLM cloud customers are requesting that in lieu of GB200 availability, that their cloud partners add capacity of Hoppers and B200s."

- Karee Venema

Investors shouldn't worry about AI spending, says Goldman Sachs

One worry that weighed on AI stocks earlier this year was that Big Tech would reduce its spending on AI initiatives – due in part to the release of China's lower-cost DeepSeek AI model, as well as muddied tariff announcements.

But commentary from several mega-cap tech firms following their respective quarterly results should put investors' minds at ease.

"U.S. tech giants are continuing to ramp up their spending on artificial intelligence, despite the uncertainty of tariff policies," says Eric Sheridan, co-business unit leader of the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Group at Goldman Sachs Research.

During a recent appearance on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast, Sheridan pointed out that there is unlikely to be any major adjustments because the AI spending is "aimed at multi-year themes."

Indeed, in its fiscal Q3 earnings call, Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said that "roughly half" of the company's "cloud and AI-related spend was on long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond."

Sheridan adds that "given the sheer number of players investing both offensively and defensively in AI, I think this spend will get protected for a little longer than the macro environment might influence it."

- Karee Venema

NVDA rises in pre-market trading

Nvidia traded up in the pre-market Wednesday morning, rising about 0.6% as of about 15 minutes ahead of the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange a day after it added 3.2.%

Nvidia will report fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings after today's closing bell. Management will host a conference call to discuss results and guidance starting around 5 pm ET.

A FactSet-compiled Wall Street consensus forecast includes revenue growth of 66% to $43.3 billion, earnings per share growth of 40% to 73 cents, and fiscal second-quarter guidance of EPS of $1 on revenue of $45.9 billion.

The key factor here is China and the impact of U.S. restrictions on sales of Nvidia's H20 chipset there.

Nvidia has already said it expects to book a $5.5 billion first-quarter charge on inventory and production commitments because of the new restrictions. And CEO Jensen Huang said they'd cost Nvidia about $15 billion in revenue.

According to FactSet, the forecast for Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter revenue has declined by approximately $2 billion from a late-March peak.

Meanwhile, "hyperscalers" in the AI infrastructure space such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) are standing by and even boosting their capex forecasts.

- David Dittman

Why Nvidia's earnings announcement is "pivotal" for the stock market

James Demmert, chief investment officer of Main Street Research, says Nvidia's earnings announcement, due after today's close, is "pivotal" not only for the chipmaker but also for the broader stock market.

A strong print "can rejuvenate investor optimism across the board and help investors to focus on the power of AI and less on headlines out of Washington on tariffs and taxes," Demmert explains.

The CIO thinks the "AI story and evolution is alive and well," but he notes that it has been "clouded by trade fears and U.S. policy."

Demmert adds that "AI has proven to enhance productivity growth for the global economy.

He says investors who want exposure to the expanding space should consider buying Nvidia stock, considering it's trading "at a discount to the company's growth rate."

- Karee Venema

NVDA (and markets) will move

Markets seem on edge ahead of Nvidia's post-closing-bell earnings and guidance event.

Just more than an hour into Nvidia Day, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite were all down – by 0.01%, 0.02% and 0.03%, respectively.

Ten of the 11 sectors were in the red – but health care was up 0.02%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 20. Treasury yields are higher across maturities, though the 30-year remains below the psychologically significant 5% threshold.

Options pricing suggests NVDA could move as much as 6% in either direction through the end of the week in response to this evening's events.

"That would put Nvidia’s share price at either $143.92, a 4-month high, or $127.09, a little above where it closed after the U.S. and China agreed to lower sky-high tariffs on each other’s imports," writes Investopedia's Colin Laidley.

- David Dittman

3 stocks that could move with Nvidia

There are lots of other stocks in the AI space that could move in tandem with Nvidia after earnings, says Joe Tigay, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund.

"The race for AI leadership is only getting bigger – it's rapidly expanding," he explains.

"This isn't discretionary spending; companies aren't just experimenting for fun. This is a critical investment in their future," Tigay adds, and the "underlying demand for Nvidia chips is urgent and very real."

The portfolio manager notes that "the market has been driven by a tech recovery and boom that has lifted many companies. And with the surge in chip sales, even more names are likely to rise with the tide."

Tigay highlights a handful of stocks that investors should watch outside of Nvidia. They include:

Constellation Energy (CEG) is a utility stock focused on nuclear power that can meet the massive energy demand from AI data centers."Commentary from NVIDIA or general AI buildout trends will directly impact their energy demand outlook," Tigay says.

Broadcom (AVGO) is a chipmaker that supplies its products to hyperscalers such as Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google and Meta Platforms (META). It also provides key networking solutions for data centers."Strong Nvidia results and bullish AI commentary can signal continued robust demand for Broadcom's data center solutions and custom silicon," the portfolio manager explains.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns physical infrastructure that houses AI servers."Increased demand for NVIDIA chips means more colocation and interconnection services, higher power density requirements, and expansion" for DLR, says Tigay.

– Karee Venema

The Nvidia obsession is relatively healthy

Investors, traders and speculators are squarely focused on Nvidia's earnings and guidance today, the climax of a so-far-so-good reporting season.

And that makes a lot of sense given semiconductors are probably the most important group of stocks right now and the leader of the AI revolution is easily the biggest among them.

It's also refreshing that tariffs and trade wars and regulation have been reduced somewhat in the bigger picture, if only for now, and albeit with significant qualifications…

Such as investors, traders, speculators and we will listen closely to what CEO Jensen Huang and his management team have to say about their plans to mitigate the impact of U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China during Nvidia's conference call.

That starts at about 5 pm ET. Be sure to join us.

– David Dittman

Jensen Huang: AI revolutionary/head cheerleader

"The entire stock market is expecting great results and guidance from Nvidia after today's market close," writes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates. "Jensen Huang is now the head cheerleader for AI and, eventually, quantum computing."

Navellier notes that D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) won a quantum computing architecture contest sponsored by Nvidia. QBTS is one among four viable ways to invest in quantum computing right now.

"I expect Huang to continue to inspire investors and AI users with upbeat guidance," Navellier foreshadows. "It is up to Huang to paint a positive picture of how he expects AI to continue to unfold and literally envelop more aspects of our lives."

Navellier concludes with one observation, "that younger people are clearly AI-obsessed for superior internet search and advice."

The major equity indexes were rising back toward their respective intraday breakeven lines and NVDA remained in positive territory about three hours ahead of Nvidia's expected 4:20 pm ET earnings release.

We'll cover the conference call live starting at 5 pm.

– David Dittman

NVDA rises

Nvidia stock surged in the last couple of hours of trading ahead of its highly anticipated fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings release, rising from an intraday low of $134.80 around 11 am ET to an intraday high of $137.25 shortly after 2 pm.

NVDA was at $136.50 as of 3 pm, up 1% vs Tuesday's close of $135.50.

NVDA isvidia stock is trading at a lower-than-average valuation as earnings approach.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, NVDA is trading at 28.4 times forward earnings vs a five-year average of 40.2 times.

"We see the stock as attractive at current levels," writes Main Street Research Chief Investment Officer James Demmert. "Nvidia's stock is trading at about the same price as almost a year ago – but their earnings have almost doubled."

Nvidia's earnings press release is expected to drop at 4:20 pm. The conference call will follow at 5 pm.

– David Dittman

Nvidia CEO Huang: AI is just like electricity and the internet

Nvidia stock sagged in the last hour of Wednesday's trading session and closed down 0.5% after rising as much as 1.3% intraday.

But NVDA got a fresh bounce after management reported expectations-beating year-over-year revenue growth of 69% to $44.1 billion. Wall Street saw 66% growth to $43.3 million.

Earnings of 81 cents per share also topped a FactSet-compiled consensus of 73 cents.

Nvidia incurred a $4.5 billion charge on excess H20 inventory and purchase obligations due to diminished demand resulting from U.S. government restrictions on chip exports to China introduced on April 9.

"Sales of H20 products were $4.6 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 prior to the new export licensing requirements," Nvidia said in its press release. "NVIDIA was unable to ship an additional $2.5 billion of H20 revenue in the first quarter."

EPS would have been 91 cents but for the new restrictions and the $4.5 billion charge. Gross margin of 61.0% would have been 71.3%, Nvidia said.

“Our breakthrough Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer – a ‘thinking machine’ designed for reasoning – is now in full-scale production across system makers and cloud service providers,” said CEO Jensen Huang.

Huang described global demand for NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure as incredibly strong. Countries around the world are recognizing AI as essential infrastructure – just like electricity and the internet – and NVIDIA stands at the center of this profound transformation.”

Nvidia management guided to fiscal second-quarter revenue of $45.0 billion "plus or minus 2%." The guidance "reflects a loss in H20 revenue of approximately $8.0 billion due to the recent export control limitations."

Gross margin is expected to be 72.0%, "plus or minus 50 basis points," with management noting its "work toward achieving gross margins in the mid-70% range late this year."

NVDA was up more than 3% in after-market trading shortly after the release of its numbers.

– David Dittman

Nvidia's business is "firm"

"Our customer commitments are firm," said Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Collette Kress at the top of Nvidia's conference call this evening.

Nvidia exceeded Wall Street expectations for its fiscal first quarter revenue and earnings but fell short on guidance.

Revenue is expected to be $45.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and reflects a loss in H20 revenue of approximately $8.0 billion due to the recent export control limitations.

According to FactSet, Wall Street was looking for fiscal second-quarter revenue guidance of $45.9 billion.

Kress noted that H20 revenue of $4.6 prior to April 9 was offset by $4.5 billion charges related to new export controls. The charge was less than management initially expected, and Nvidia continues to evaluate "limited" options available to it in a fast-growing market.

Nvidia expects a meaningful decrease in second-quarter data-center revenue from China because of new restrictions.

The Blackwell ramp is the fastest in Nvidia's history, highlighted by hyperscaler Microsoft (MSFT) and its deployment, with countries, industries and companies expanding their infrastructure build-outs and the transfer to agentic AI driving demand.

NVDA rose into Kress's summary of Nvidia's on-the-ground operations, peaking at $142.81 a few minutes into the conference call.

Nvidia CEO Huang is anti-export controls

"We've had a busy and productive year," said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang before he launched a rebuttal to export controls imposed by the U.S. government on April 9 that effectively cut off the world's second-largest economy from U.S semiconductor makers.

"The platform that wins China," Huang explained, "is in position to win globally." The export ban ended Nvidia's Hopper data center business in China. But, as Huang emphasized, China's AI efforts will move on – with the U.S. or without the U.S.

"The question is not whether China will have AI," he said. "It's whether it will run on American platforms."

The Trump administration's export ban "only strengthens China and weakens the U.S." because it has "spurred China's ambition and scale" and "assumptions about China's capabilities" have been proven wrong.

The U.S. will always be Nvidia's largest market, Huang clarified, but the AI race "is about which stack the world will run on. And U.S. global infrastructure leadership is at stake."

Nvidia will report fiscal 2026 second-quarter results on August 27.

Nvidia, Sweden and "sovereign AI"

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reserved most of his prepared remarks to talk about export controls and their impact on U.S. AI infrastructure leadership.

At the conclusion of his statement, though, he teased "sovereign AI" and Nvidia's new relationship with Sweden.

"Sovereign AI" is about nations such as Sweden establishing their own capability to build and develop artificial intelligence with its own infrastructure, data and workforce.

NVIDIA is helping a consortium of Swedish companies build the country's largest enterprise AI supercomputer with Grace Blackwell GB300 systems.

And it recently struck a deal with Saudi Arabia. India and the United Arab Emirates are also clients.

Still the beginning of a big AI buildout

"We're at the beginning of all of this buildout," said CEO Jensen Huang in another of his extended responses to analysts' questions during Nvidia's fiscal 2026 first-quarter conference call.

"Intelligence is surely one of those things," like electricity and information, "it's essential infrastructure."

As the leader of the AI revolution conceives it, "every country will have it, that I'm certain of" and "every industry will use, that I'm certain of."

Huang noted as well that "what's unique" about AI "is that it needs factories.

"We need factories to produce this intelligence. And the intelligence is getting more sophisticated."

– David Dittman

"The age of AI is here"

CEO Jensen Huang cited four factors that continue to support Nvidia's growth trajectory despite restrictions on its business in China.

The first is the step-up in function to reasoning AI, which allowed the technology to "bust through" and drive exponential growth.

The second is the rescission of a U.S. anti-diffusion law.

"President Trump wants America to win," Huang noted. "He realizes we're not the only country in the race and that we have to get the American stack out into the world."

The third factor is the emergence of enterprise AI and the proliferation of agents. "Agents work," Huang said. "Agents are really quite successful, vs generative AI. Agents can understand ambiguity and implicit instruction and can problem solve."

The fourth "pillar of support" is industrial AI. "The implication of the world reordering, with regions on-shoring manufacturing and building plants everywhere, is that every factory will have an AI factory associated with it."

"The age of AI is here," Huang said in his closing remarks, "and Nvidia is ready."

– David Dittman

All systems go after Nvidia earnings, Jefferies says

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis says Nvidia's earnings report answered several overhangs for investors, namely that its built-up inventory is clearing out.

"The biggest issue for the stock was the disconnect between Blackwell sales and GB200 shipments but that is now in the rearview as NVDA noted multiple hyperscalers ramping 1,000 NVL72s per week," Curtis wrote in post-earnings note.

The analyst adds that sovereign AI is gaining traction "on the back of significant commitments from both UAE and Saudi Arabia," while networking revenue "also looks better with Spectrum-X adding two new customers (Google and Meta) and NVLink exceeding $1 billion revenue in April quarter."

Putting this all together, the second half appears to "be shaping up nicely for Nvidia," Curtis notes, "with likely beat/raises from here, while the setup for the rest of AI names becomes more challenging."

Curtis has a Buy rating on Nvidia and a $185 price target, representing implied upside of 37% to its May 28 close.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia is one of the best Dow Jones stocks on Thursday

Nvidia stock is up more than 4% in mid-morning trading on Thursday, making it one of the best Dow Jones stocks so far today.

And Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore thinks the chip stock has more room to run.

Moore raised his price target on NVDA to $170 from $160 after earnings, representing implied upside of 21% to current levels.

"Nvidia is putting digestion fears fully to rest, showing acceleration of the business other than the China headwinds around growth drivers that seem durable," the analyst writes in a note to clients, adding that "Everything should get better from here."

Moore notes that Nvidia is "outgrowing expectations despite supply constraints, and outgrowing competition by a larger magnitude."

The analyst has an Overweight (Buy) rating on Nvidia and an Attractive view on the broader semiconductor industry.

- Karee Venema

Nvidia closes higher after earnings

Earnings and guidance together support Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's big vision, and NVDA stock was up as much as 6.4% the day after its latest quarterly update and closed with a gain of 3.3%.

"NVDA executed well despite the loss of H20 representing a greater headwind than we (or investors) had anticipated," writes Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson.

Bryson notes that gross margins and revenue are "expected to trend positively" during the second quarter of the calendar year, "despite the China headwind" and cites "seemingly more certain demand growth" through calendar year 2026, driven by an increase in sovereign AI projects.

"We see no reason to shift our constructive opinion on NVDA," the analyst concludes. Bryson reiterates his Outperform (or "Buy") rating and his $175 12-month price target.

Thanks for joining us.

We'll be back in late August to cover Nvidia's fiscal 2026 second-quarter earnings and conference call.

- David Dittman

"The thing that’s really important to recognize," Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang recently said, "is that this is the largest infrastructure buildout in human history." His remark about artificial intelligence (AI) is not hyperbole.

The rapid adoption of generative AI and large language models (LLMs) has ignited a surge in spending on data centers, networking equipment and specialized semiconductors, chips and processors needed to train and run AI systems.

Generative AI will boost global GDP by 7%, add close to $7 trillion in value and drive increased productivity in the next decade. Venture funding, a key catalyst for growth so far, surged 85% year over year to $211 billion in 2025.

Hyperscale technology companies Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are expected to spend about $650 billion on AI-related infrastructure in 2026.

Yet the investment frenzy isn't just about building data centers. Whether you see an AI boom or an AI bubble, the broader promise lies in AI's potential to transform the global economy.

Companies across sectors and industries are deploying AI tools to automate tasks, analyze information faster and improve decision-making processes.

These capabilities can translate into higher productivity, lower operating costs and more efficient workflows.

One of the most promising developments is the rise of AI agents, which autonomously perform complex tasks such as customer service, research, software development and business operations.

Unlike earlier forms of automation that handled narrow tasks, AI agents can coordinate multiple steps in a workflow, interact with other systems and adapt to changing conditions.

As these technologies mature, businesses expect them to unlock new levels of efficiency and innovation.

Who are the big names in this AI revolution? Here's an overview of 10 major players you should know.

Amazon.com

AI applications are often built on cloud platforms. Some of the reasons include scalability, low costs, centralization of data, monitoring, analytics and customization. All that is good news for Amazon, as Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the world leader in cloud technologies.

AWS has been retooled as a comprehensive platform for AI development. Amazon management said AWS generated $35.6 billion in fourth-quarter sales, a 24% year-over-year increase.

AWS offers several systems, such as SageMaker and Bedrock, which make it easier to use, manage and deploy AI models and agents. Bedrock allows companies to access leading generative AI models from multiple providers through a managed service.

Amazon has strengthened its AI ecosystem through major strategic investments and partnerships. The company has invested about $8 billion in Anthropic, whose Claude models are tightly integrated with the Bedrock platform and run primarily on AWS infrastructure.

In early 2026, Amazon struck a major partnership with OpenAI and invested $50 billion as part of a $110 billion funding round. The transaction has expanded a long-term cloud computing contract.

Amazon has also built several AI applications on its AWS infrastructure, such as the Amazon Q assistant, which the company used to save $250 million in a Java migration project. Without this tool, the project would have taken 4,500 developer years. Amazon Q is designed to help developers and enterprise workers generate code, analyze data and automate tasks across AWS systems.

But AWS is more than software. Amazon has invested heavily in creating its own silicon chips for processing AI workloads. The latest offering is Trainium2, which has shown strong performance at relatively low costs.

Amazon has also developed Inferentia chips for AI inference workloads, part of a broader strategy to lower the cost of running large AI models and reduce reliance on third-party processors.

OpenAI

In late 2015, investors including Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel and Sam Altman co-founded OpenAI to "ensure that artificial general intelligence — AI systems that are generally smarter than humans — benefits all of humanity."

The first few years were far from encouraging, but in 2019, the company realized that the best strategy was to pursue generative AI, which led to the building of a series of generative pre-training transformer (GPT) models.

This became the foundation for the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, when generative AI quickly became mainstream. Within two months, it would attract more than 100 million users, making it history's fastest-growing app.

While the AI market has become intensely competitive, OpenAI's models remain highly popular. The company sells access to its models to developers and also generates revenues from different versions of ChatGPT.

Revenue has surged in recent years, hitting about $13 billion in 2025 and reportedly surpassing $25 billion in annualized revenue by early 2026.

OpenAI's models are also widely used by enterprises through cloud platforms and developer APIs. This makes it a foundational layer for many generative AI applications.

A major driver of this growth has been OpenAI's close partnership with Microsoft, which has invested billions of dollars in the company and integrated OpenAI's models into products such as Azure, Microsoft 365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot.

Databricks

In 2009, a group of computer science students at University of California, Berkeley created an open-source project called Apache Spark. They wanted to make it easier to manage data processing for AI models.

The timing was spot-on, as deep learning was becoming more practical and powerful. As Apache Spark grew more popular, the students would go on to found Databricks, a platform for data management, providing analytics, security and governance.

Databricks has since expanded into a broader "data and AI platform," helping organizations store, analyze and prepare massive datasets used to train and run AI models.

More than 20,000 organizations worldwide — including Comcast (CMCSA), Shell (SHEL) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) — rely on Databricks to take control of their data and put it to work with AI.

Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi has been aggressive with acquisitions. In 2023 the company acquired MosaicML for about $1.3 billion. This gave Databricks the technology to help customers build and train their own LLMs. Then in 2024, the company acquired Tabular for a reported $2 billion. The deal strengthened Databricks’ capabilities around data lakehouse architecture and open table formats, which are increasingly important for managing the large datasets used in AI applications.

In late December of 2025, Databricks announced its latest funding round of $4 billion at a $134 billion valuation. Investors included Insight Partners, Fidelity, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Andreessen Horowitz, BlackRock and Blackstone.

Meta Platforms

Unlike many other megacap tech firms, Meta's AI strategy has focused on building open models that developers can freely use and adapt. The company launched Llama in early 2023, and the models quickly became popular with researchers and startups.

Meta has continued to expand the lineup. In 2025 the company released new multimodal versions of Llama capable of processing text, images and other types of data.

A key advantage for Meta in the AI race is its enormous scale. More than 3.5 billion people (PDF) use at least one of the company's apps every day. This gives Meta a powerful distribution channel for AI services.

Meta is also using AI extensively in its core advertising business. The company has been deploying systems to automate ad targeting, creative generation and campaign optimization for advertisers. These efforts have already shown results, with improved revenue and lower costs.

Ultimately, the mission for AI is to build a platform for "personal intelligence." CEO Mark Zuckerberg (PDF) explains it: "We're starting to see the promise of AI that understands our personal context — including our history, our interests, our content and our relationships."

According to Zuckerberg, "A lot of what makes agents valuable is the unique context that they can see, and we believe that Meta will be able to provide a uniquely personal experience."

Alphabet

In 2017, researchers at Alphabet's Google published a paper on machine learning, "Attention Is All You Need." The paper introduced the transformer model (PDF), which is what powers generative AI.

While Google continued the research, it wasn't focused on commercialization until the launch of ChatGPT. Worried that its core search business was in jeopardy, it scrambled to create its own products, such as Bard. But they were disappointing.

Since then, Google has made significant strides. The company's Gemini 3 model has demonstrated strong results against rival LLMs, including those from OpenAI and Anthropic. The chat app has about 750 million monthly users.

"As an ex-Googler, I’m very impressed by the amount of progress and efficiency to become a force in not only building models but also training data," says Shanea Leven, CEO at Empromptu AI.

Google has "such a large corpus of data," Leven adds. "They should be the leaders without much of the backlash OpenAI and Anthropic have been getting."

Google has also aggressively integrated AI across various segments. For example, search has an "AI mode."

Its AI investments are starting to make a major impact on the company’s growth: Alphabet reported an 18% increase in revenue to $114 billion (PDF) for the fourth quarter, driven by increased monetization of the ad business and the cloud division.

Nvidia

Founded in 1993, Nvidia was one of the pioneers of graphics processing units (GPUs) and was initially focused on the fast-growing gaming market.

But in 2012, Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever and Geoffrey Hinton showed that Nvidia GPUs could be effective in training sophisticated AI models for tasks such as image recognition. The chips were able to handle huge amounts of data in parallel. Another key advantage was Nvidia’s Cuda software system, which allowed for customization.

At the time, the company had a market cap in the $7 billion-to-$8 billion neighborhood. Elevated by the AI revolution, NVDA is now a $4 trillion stock and is the world's most valuable publicly traded company.

Nvidia earnings continue to grow at a blistering rate. Management reported fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter revenue growth of 73% to $68.1 billion. More than 91% of the top-line came from data center hardware, with a focus on training AI models.

The market is expected to transition toward inference, which is how AI systems respond to queries and actions. Management has been preparing by bolstering its CPU segment, its efforts paying off in February with Nvidia's announcement that Meta will buy "tens of billions of dollars' worth" of Nvidia's Grace and Vera CPUs.

"The part that matters most for the AI trade is not simply that NVIDIA is selling more GPUs," Futurum Chief Market Strategist Shay Boloor observes, "but that the revenue mix is proving the stack is moving from training-only narratives into full AI factories where compute and networking are one integrated purchase decision."

As Boloor sees it, "Jensen Huang has basically framed the company as an AI infrastructure provider rather than a chip vendor."

Microsoft

In 2019, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella agreed to invest $1 billion in OpenAI. At the time, it was a risky proposition. OpenAI was still a fledgling startup, and the launch of ChatGPT wouldn't happen for another three years.

But Nadella knew AI was strategic to the success of Microsoft, and OpenAI had a standout team of data scientists. He would eventually invest another $13 billion in OpenAI.

The investment has turned into a home run. Microsoft got exclusive access to OpenAI models while becoming its sole cloud provider. This was critical in giving Microsoft a head-start in the AI race.

The OpenAI relationship has been critical for the growth in Microsoft's cloud business, where revenue was up 39% during its fiscal second quarter.

At the same time, Microsoft has struggled with building its own applications, such as Copilot. This system has lagged, such as against rivals like Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and ChatGPT.

To bolster its efforts, Microsoft introduced Copilot Cowork, an agentic AI automation system that according to Nadella "turns your request into a plan and executes it across your apps and files, grounded in your work data."

Anduril

Palmer Luckey started building virtual reality (VR) headsets when he was 16 years old. Relentless with his innovation, such as adding stereoscopic 3D, wireless capabilities and wider fields of views, his efforts were the foundation of a startup called Oculus VR, which he launched when he was 19.

To fund the development, Luckey pulled off a successful Kickstarter campaign, raising $2.4 million. In just a couple years, he'd sell the company to Meta for $2 billion.

While working at Meta, Luckey became intrigued with another startup opportunity. The pace of innovation in the defense industry was too slow, he concluded, and he saw an opportunity to build a company that would leverage software, AI and inexpensive hardware.

In 2017, he left Meta to pursue this startup, called Anduril. "The company shows what happens when AI is applied to a specific high-stakes domain," Empromptu.ai co-founder and CEO Shanea Leven said.

At the core of Anduril is its Lattice AI platform, an autonomous command-and-control layer that processes huge amounts of data from sensors. Lattice AI also powers the company's drones, as well as U.S. Air Force jets and undersea vehicles.

Like many companies developing cutting-edge military technology, Anduril has faced setbacks. Some of its autonomous systems and drones have experienced failures during military tests and exercises, including drone crashes and mechanical issues in prototype systems.

Regardless, there remains strong interest from investors. According to The Wall Street Journal, Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz are leading a massive investment in Anduril at an estimated valuation of $60 billion.

Anthropic

Former OpenAI executives Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei founded "safety-first" AI company Anthropic in 2021 following disagreements with their previous employer about general strategic direction and AI safety in particular.

Anthropic's latest model is Claude Opus 4.6, widely regarded as one of the top frontier AI models for reasoning, coding and complex multistep tasks.

As for the growth of the business, it's been rapid. The annual run-rate is near $20 billion, up from $9 billion in 2025, according to Bloomberg. To fund its future ambitions, Anthropic announced a $30 billion venture round in February at a $380 billion valuation.

A dispute with the Department of War (formerly, the Department of Defense) about the developer's refusal to disable safety features in its models led the Pentagon to label Anthropic a "supply-chain risk," essentially banning its tech or federal use.

Anthropic has filed a lawsuit against the Pentagon, claiming that it had been targeted. The dispute represents a threat to billions of dollars of revenue from government contracts.

xAI

In 2023, Elon Musk founded xAI to build powerful generative AI models and applications. Musk assembled a veteran team of researchers and AI experts from companies such as OpenAI and Google.

The AI application of xAI is Grok, a conversational AI assistant (launched in late 2023). To accelerate distribution, Musk integrated the system into X.

Grok has been controversial, though. Then again, Musk wanted a system that had fewer filters for content moderation. The result is that the responses from Grok have sometimes been offensive or misleading.

For example, critics have alleged that the company's image-generation system creates sexualized deepfakes of unconsenting women and minors. This has led to various investigations and lawsuits.

In the meantime, Musk has made deals to accelerate the growth. Last year, xAI acquired X in an all-stock swap for $33 billion.

In January, xAI announced a $20 billion funding round led by Valor Equity Partners, Stepstone Group, Fidelity, Qatar Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi's MGX and Baron Capital Group. Then SpaceX agreed to purchase xAI, establishing a valuation for the combined entity of $1.25 trillion. The company plans to launch its IPO in July.

According to Musk, SpaceX is "the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth, with AI, rockets, space-based internet."

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To help you understand the trends surrounding AI and other new technologies and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…

AI is on the cusp of going mainstream. By next year, more money will be spent globally on software with generative AI than on software without it, according to Gartner, a technology market research company.

This year, nearly every major software company will have a generative AI feature in all their products, or will have plans to roll them out this year or next, noted John Lovelock, an analyst at Gartner, in a recent presentation.

Spending on generative AI software in 2026 will be nearly $400 billion globally, compared with $282 billion on traditional software, predicts Gartner. By 2028, those figures will be $700 billion and $188 billion. AI-heavy software landed $18 billion in 2023, the first full year the technology was available to the masses. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a text-generating AI chatbot, was released to the public in November 2022.

The trend is rapidly putting powerful AI features in the hands of millions of people. For example, Adobe Photoshop’s Generative Fill lets users select a portion of an image to add anything, such as the perfect water drop on a flower. Microsoft’s CoPilot lets users create slideshows by picking a template, providing a text outline and letting AI do the rest. Want to tweak a slide? Simply write a suggestion to Microsoft’s AI chatbot. AI is also becoming prevalent in software for analytics, customer relationship tools and supply chain systems.

The deployment of AI brings both opportunity and risk for businesses. The companies that are fastest to harness productive uses will have an edge, including workers who figure out how to use AI creation tools to produce text, images, charts, computer code and more, or to better analyze data, images or written research.

But businesses rushing to use AI without a plan could lead to damaging missteps, ranging from wasted hours to security threats. Plenty of AI tools won’t be fully baked and won’t help productivity much at first. Companies need a clear plan and set of guidelines for generative AI before taking the plunge.

Meanwhile, consumers are seeing AI seamlessly make its way into popular apps and websites, whether they want it or not. Facebook and Instagram users can tap Meta’s AI chatbots to answer questions or generate images. Alphabet’s CEO Sundar Pichai recently said that Google’s AI Overviews, its new AI search tool that provides detailed explanations to Google search queries, “are one of our most popular Search features ever.”

Rapid adoption of generative AI holds a lot of promise for the economy, along with peril for businesses that face disruption and workers who fear displacement. However, that doesn’t mean the fallout will happen overnight. Even with AI getting rolled out at an unprecedented pace, expect the widescale impact to take place over years or even decades. The AI age is just getting started.

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To help you understand how AI and other new technologies are affecting energy consumption, trends in this space and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…

Artificial intelligence will affect everything from drug discovery to military strategy, and will boost productivity, automate work and disrupt industries.

Here’s a look at big opportunities of generative AI, tech that responds to plain English (and other prompts) to create text, audio, images, video, computer code and more. We highlight the looming challenges, too.

The big AI bet

Astronomical tech spending is laying the foundation for the coming AI age. Tech giants’ capital expenditures have exploded since the launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s AI chatbot, in 2022, and heated competition will push spending higher. The combined yearly capital expenditures of Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft will soar past $300 billion in 2025, up from $154 billion in 2023, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley Research.

Most of the money is for Nvidia’s AI chips, the graphics processing units (GPUs) for huge cloud data centers owned by those tech giants and others. Other spending is for memory chips, networking gear and related data center tech, boosting Dell, Cisco, Oracle, Arista Networks, SK Hynix, Micron, Marvell and others.

The frenzied spending has sparked fears of an AI bubble, à la the late-1990s dot-com debacle. Today’s pricey AI requires lofty returns on investment to pay off. Though a correction or more painful period may occur, tech giants have massive cash piles and user bases to weather ups and downs in a decade-long AI journey. They are betting on a shift to the next big tech platform, as important, if not more, than the transition from PCs to mobile phones, which makes moving fast imperative.

Green shoots are already emerging. Microsoft-backed OpenAI has more than 300 million weekly users for its chatbot. Meta has 600 million AI users on its apps and other tools and says AI is improving ads and content suggestions. Big Tech companies are seeing fast-growing cloud sales for AI computing and tools. Consulting firm Accenture has already booked $3 billion in AI sales. AI start-ups are scoring users quickly. But the real promise is long-term. For example, OpenAI expects to lose billions yearly until it finally projects a profit in 2029 on an astounding $100 billion in yearly sales, according to a report by the New York Times.

Harnessing novel tech

Generative AI stems from huge amounts of data and computing power, using the brute force of GPUs on a mountain of internet and other data. The AI systems are known as large language models that learn patterns in language to predict the next word, enabling remarkably complex and humanlike responses. The inner workings of these digital neural networks are not fully understood. Flaws, such as errors and unreliability, are still common. But expect steady improvements.

Among the companies building leading AI models: OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, Mistral AI, Cohere, Amazon, xAI and Stability AI. It costs hundreds of millions of dollars to get AI models to work, a process known as training, and takes months of constant data center computation on hundreds of billions of words or other data. That cost will go into the billions with an ever-growing demand for computing power.

AI's growing physical footprint

AI software is backed by physical infrastructure. Start with Nvidia’s dominance, with millions of its high-end GPUs, costing $30,000-$40,000 each, in data centers. Nvidia’s lead is poised to last for years, as its proprietary hardware and software are best in class. The company’s revenue is forecast to hit nearly $200 billion per year in its 2026 fiscal year, up from $27 billion in fiscal 2023, according to Morningstar.

Competitors are trying to find Nvidia alternatives. Amazon, Meta and Google are building their own silicon. AMD and Intel have AI chips. “In the long run, we expect tech titans to strive to find second-sources or in-house solutions to diversify away from Nvidia in AI, but most likely, these efforts will chip away at, but not supplant, Nvidia’s AI dominance,” writes Brian Colello, Morningstar strategist, in a recent report on the company. Nvidia won’t stop improving as it seeks new customers in anticipation of cooling sales.

U.S. data center growth is booming, reaching a pace of $30 billion in private spending this year, up from $12 billion in 2022, according to Census data. Northern Virginia is by far the largest market, but rapid growth is spread across the U.S. in states such as Iowa, Idaho, North Dakota and Texas. Examples of the trend include Meta investing $10 billion in a new 4 million sq.-ft. facility in Louisiana, and xAI planning to expand its Memphis, Tennessee, data center to 1 million GPUs.

AI data centers are huge energy hogs, so expect soaring electricity demand. Data centers could consume up to 9% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030, more than double today’s amount, says energy research outfit EPRI. To achieve this will require tens of billions of dollars of investment in energy and grid expansion. Data centers will spur demand for reliable power, especially sourced from natural gas. Set to benefit: Constellation Energy, Vistra, ExxonMobil, Entergy and Talen Energy.

Projected energy needs are so big that tech giants are serious about using nuclear to power nearby data centers. Google wants to add 500 megawatts of nuclear energy with Kairos Power’s small modular reactors by 2035. Amazon has similar agreements in Virginia and Washington and is investing in nuclear firm X-energy. Meta has a proposal to add 1-4 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by the early 2030s. In a $1.6 billion deal, Microsoft partnered with Constellation Energy to restart a Three Mile Island reactor. Data center operator Equinix has signed a deal with microreactor maker Oklo.

Even with big energy investments, power shortages will be a bottleneck for AI development. Chips are sure to get more energy-efficient, but not fast enough to curb demand in the near term. Nuclear won’t make an impact until the 2030s.

AI takes hold

For an early sign of what’s to come, look at top AI models that are emerging fast. The tools can create stunning virtual 3D worlds, lifelike voice assistants, Hollywood-like movies, full-length books and more. Google’s recent Genie model can create 3D video games, animations and prototypes by inputting simple text or images, such as writing “Show me a wizard walking through an ancient forest.”

OpenAI, Google, Amazon and others are regularly releasing newly improved tools, from low-cost ones for mobile devices to expensive ones with high-end performance. Meta’s top AI models are open-source, so they are freely available, a contrast with the others’ proprietary efforts, spelling even more competition and choices.

The tech is quickly being embedded in everyday apps and services, including Microsoft 365’s suite of word processing and other apps, web browsers and mobile operating systems from Apple and Android. The tools can write emails, summarize documents, edit photos, create presentations, answer questions, etc.

Unlike social media and web search, the business model can’t be free and reliant on ads because building leading-edge AI is so expensive. Subscriptions are a top option, especially for business users wanting powerful AI for specific tasks. OpenAI announced a $200-per-month subscription for its top AI model, for example.

AI start-ups keep scoring huge sums based on the disruptive potential to shake up entire markets, such as online search, and take on incumbent services, such as sales software. Among the start-ups with valuations in the billions are Glean, Hugging Face, Databricks, CoreWeave, Safe Superintelligence, Poolside and Liquid AI. Venture capitalists and large companies are among the investors. Another example: Tenstorrent recently raised $700 million to build more affordable advanced AI chips.

The race to super AI

Is AI on the path to superintelligence? A lot of top researchers think so. Many companies’ goal is creating so-called artificial general intelligence, an AI that cracks the code of human intelligence, and then improves upon it. OpenAI defines AGI as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” Others say it’s a Ph.D.-level virtual genius.

This ill-defined inflection point has an uncertain timeline, which ranges from next year to sometime in the next decade, or being delayed indefinitely, say its advocates.

In theory, AGI poses endless possibilities but also dire existential risks. The promise includes rapid productivity gains and booming economic growth, as scientific discovery is accelerated to cure cancer, solve nuclear fusion, etc. Dangers include self-aware AI going rogue, starting a war or even ending humanity.

Take AGI talk seriously, but with a healthy dose of skepticism. AI hype is partly at play, though the race to AGI will be a driving force for years to come. Past AI hype has fallen flat and decades of research have seen fits and starts. AGI isn’t required for amazing AI tech emerging from steady advances. The pressing risk for society is how humans decide to use powerful AI.

The emerging use cases

There’s a rapidly growing list of uses for generative AI across industries. It will become a powerful tool for knowledge workers. Widely available tools can already transcribe virtual meetings, analyze company data, find cyber threats, research new markets and more. Users interact with AI chatbots like web search typing text to get responses. More questions or commands can refine the results… “provide more details,” “simplify the text for a nonexpert,” “what am I missing?” etc.

There’s an explosion of AI apps and business adoption is ramping up, though it will be a bumpy ride finding the best-use cases and ways to train workers.

Specific areas where AI will gain traction:

• Information technology. Writing and debugging computer code is one of the top uses to boost productivity. Users can paste sections of code to check for errors or input text to build an app. Among the vendors are GitHub, Codeium, Cursor, Harness, All Hands and Factory.
• Media and entertainment. Create a full-length film from a text description. Hollywood will let fans personalize movies, simply entering something such as, “Make a Superman film about sharing, suitable for an 8-year-old,” into a generative AI tool. Movie special effects will be easier. Ditto, commercials, video games, etc. AI tools include Runway, Midjourney, Canva, Pika and Ideogram.
• Retail and advertising. Product descriptions on websites can be automated. Small businesses can cheaply and easily generate high-quality video ads, image ads or marketing text. Facebook is already seeing lots of small firms using its AI ad tools.
• Education. Teachers can create lessons, study guides and essay questions. Ditto for students, who can get bullet points from a long text or help with an essay. Personalized AI tutors such as Khanmigo break down complex topics step by step.
• Healthcare. Tools can transcribe audio of patient visits, send messages or automate notetaking. They can streamline required reporting or help with diagnoses. AI tool Whisper is already widely used. Others include Abridge, Forcura and SmarterDx.

There are many other areas, including legal, finance, pharma, real estate and publishing. AI can pore through scientific papers for insights, or make models of drug molecules. It can give suggestions to deal with a mountain of regulations and compliance tasks.

The Holy Grail is autonomous AI assistants that can do complex work. These “agents” will take control of a computer to pull up documents and websites to book hotels, schedule meetings, do work research and more, completely on their own, while keeping the human in the loop. They’ll call customer service for any issues, and AI may even talk to other AI. Assistants may become intimate virtual friends who understand tone and mood. And every worker could have a tireless assistant.

Intensifying global competition

When it comes to global AI competition, the U.S. has a dominant lead by almost every notable measure, including investment, leading-edge AI systems, data centers, start-ups and jobs, according to a Stanford University AI Index Report. China ranks second in recent power rankings, but as an example of our edge, the U.S. had nearly nine times the private investment in 2023. Rounding out the top 10 rankings: the U.K., India, United Arab Emirates, France, South Korea, Germany, Japan and Singapore.

Still, Chinese tech giants are rapidly launching and improving AI models, including ones from Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, Huawei and Tencent. Those tools are already used by hundreds of millions of Chinese users and lots of Chinese firms. No doubt such tech is being widely tested and used by the Chinese government.

The U.S. Dept. of Defense is planning a military AI arms race with China, spurring a flurry of activity by the Pentagon that will only accelerate. There are even concerns China could beat the U.S. to an AGI-type breakthrough. In 2023, the DoD launched a generative AI task force and has since unveiled projects for military chatbots that can assist with acquisitions, sift through intelligence, answer research questions, analyze data, provide insights for decision-making, etc.
Other ideas: Using AI for autonomous weapons, virtual assistants on the battlefield, tracking terrorist activities, cybersecurity defenses and satellite imagery analysis.

Big defense contractors and start-ups are racing to build military AI tools. Lockheed Martin and Leidos are working on secure software products. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and others with leading AI models are aiming for contracts, including through partnerships. For example, big data analytics company Palantir has partnered with Anthropic to provide AI to U.S. defense and intelligence agencies to process huge amounts of data, uncover patterns, streamline documents and more. Other vendors in the military market include Shield AI, Anduril, Scale AI, Pryzm and Ask Sage.

Expect military and government leaders to express rising levels of concern on both the risks of using AI and the risks of foreign adversaries embracing the tech. Military leaders are worried about unreliable or inaccurate AI-generated responses, so they’ll tread lightly before relying on AI-generated insight for high-level decisions. The Pentagon’s research arm will spend billions of dollars rigorously testing AI for reliability and trustworthiness. Federal efforts to conduct AI safety tests in classified settings are underway, such as identifying how much info AI models have about nuclear weapons and whether it presents a pressing national security risk.

The many looming challenges

Of course, this breakthrough tech brings a myriad of knotty challenges.

Generative AI will be used for propaganda and to interfere in democracy, since it’s so easy, fast and cheap to create a tsunami of convincing AI propaganda, including text, images, videos and audio. For example, China meddling in Taiwan’s elections. Or Russia having an easier time launching cyberattacks via AI-created e-mails.

AI advances could hit roadblocks. Energy and chip shortages may happen. Companies are running out of data on the internet to train models. There are worries that AI progress may stall as current methods hit a wall. Many worry about the risk of onerous regs slowing progress, spending drying up or looming AI talent shortages. Uses that boost productivity could take longer than expected to gain wide adoption.

Other top concerns relate to privacy while using AI, intellectual property, cybersecurity and misinformation from AI that has gobbled up data with little to no oversight, as well as job losses from AI automation and mindless AI spam flooding the internet.

But many of these problems have solutions and they don’t negate AI's potential.

This forecast is from the team at The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923. It is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Nvidia (NVDA) stock is higher in Tuesday's session after President Donald Trump on Monday revoked Executive Order 14110 that was initially signed by former President Joe Biden in 2023.

The order focused on "Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence" and created a framework for federal oversight of artificial intelligence (AI) developers.

The now-revoked mandate required AI developers to submit safety test results to the U.S. government before releasing them to the public, according to Reuters. However, in 2024, the Republican Party said it would reverse the order because it was a hindrance to innovation.

"We will repeal Joe Biden's dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology," the Republican Party said. "In its place, Republicans support AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing."

The White House's page on Executive Order 14110 now brings up a 404 error, showing "Page Not Found."

Is Nvidia stock a buy, sell or hold?

Wall Street still sees Nvidia as one of the best stocks to buy even after its shares nearly tripled in 2024. The semiconductor stock has had a muted performance so far in 2025, up roughly 3% at last check.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average analyst target price for NVDA stock is $173.08, representing implied upside of nearly 25% to current levels. Additionally, the consensus recommendation is a Strong Buy.

Financial services firm UBS Global Research has a Buy rating on the AI stock with a $185 price target.

"NVDA has essentially treaded water since last earnings, in part due to supply chain noise and concerns around the ramp of Blackwell server racks," says UBS Global Research analyst Timothy Arcuri. "We remain confident that NVDA will deliver strong fourth-quarter results and first-quarter guidance, and investor concerns around a near-term 'air pocket' are overblown."

Nvidia will disclose its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, February 26.

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Nvidia (NVDA) stock is the worst Dow Jones stock Tuesday even after the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker made several significant announcements at CES 2025, formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), including "the most advanced consumer GPUs."

Amongst Nvidia's list of announcements was the unveiling of its Blackwell GeForce RTX 50 Series GPUs and new AI-focused products, including Project DIGITS AI supercomputers.

The new Blackwell GeForce RTX 50 series Desktop and Laptop GPUs will be powered by the Nvidia Blackwell architecture, which CEO Jensen Huang said is "the most significant computer graphics innovation since we introduced programmable shading 25 years ago."

Meanwhile, Project DIGITS will provide users access to the Nvidia Grace Blackwell platform to develop and run models from their own desktop systems, the company said.

"AI will be mainstream in every application for every industry. With Project DIGITS, the Grace Blackwell Superchip comes to millions of developers," Huang said. "Placing an AI supercomputer on the desks of every data scientist, AI researcher and student empowers them to engage and shape the age of AI."

Nvidia's other announcements centered on the Cosmos platform to advance the development of physical AI, including autonomous vehicles and robots, and expanded automotive partnerships, including with Toyota.

Is Nvidia stock a buy, sell or hold?

Wall Street still sees Nvidia as one of the best stocks to buy even after its strong performance in 2024. Indeed, shares surged 171% last year and are up another 3% in early 2025.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the average analyst target price for NVDA stock is $172.48, representing implied upside of nearly 22% to current levels. Additionally, the consensus recommendation is a Strong Buy.

Financial services firm Stifel has a Buy rating and an $180 price target on the semiconductor stock.

"We believe that NVDA is well positioned in markets that combine to yield an overall total addressable market of more than $100 billion exiting 2025 and a longer-term opportunity funnel that could approach $1 trillion," says Stifel analyst Ruben Roy.

Roy adds that the bulk of Nvidia's near-term opportunities "will come from high-performance computing, hyperscale and cloud data center, and enterprise and edge computing."

The analyst says that while NVDA's exposure to gaming, automotive and professional visualization are still favorable, "the shift from general-purpose compute to accelerated compute represents the company's most significant revenue and profitability growth opportunity over the next several years, in our view."

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Analysts have been busy updating their discounted cash flow models and price targets for Nvidia (NVDA) after the most important AI company in the world failed to give the sort of blow-out revenue guidance Wall Street has come to expect.

Indeed, shares in NVDA, the world's second most valuable publicly traded company with a market cap in excess of $3 trillion, actually stumbled after posting Q3 results.

But then these sorts of things can happen when a stock is said to be priced for perfection.

Either way, it seemed like a good time to take a look at a few of the ways in which analysts' expectations have changed for NVDA stock in light of the company's latest guidance.

First, let's have a look at NVDA's price target. Although these targets are of limited utility, they do form the basis for declaring whether a stock is a Buy, Hold or Sell.

As of now, NVDA's average price target stands at about $170, up roughly 6% from the pre-earnings release target of about $160, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

NVDA's new average price target gives shares implied upside of about 20% over the next 12 months. The old price target – based off NVDA's previous level – gave the stock implied upside of about 13%.

It's hard to believe Nvidia has become a $3 trillion company because of its potential for 13% or 20% price upside over the next year or so. Heck, the stock nearly tripled over the past 52 weeks.

Price targets. Go figure.

Perhaps relative valuation can be more helpful.

Nvidia is cheap, relatively speaking

First, a caveat about valuation. While absolutely critical, valuation tends to play out on its own time frame. This time frame can be much longer than investors expect. Keep this in mind when looking at Nvidia, as the stock usually looks expensive and yet it keeps going up.

That said, NVDA's relative valuation does look increasingly compelling by some measures these days.

For one thing, while it's true that Nvidia changes hands at nearly 35 times analysts' average next-12-months earnings per share (EPS) estimate, this multiple represents a 20% discount to its own five-year average, according to data from LSEG Stock Reports Plus.

Perhaps more importantly, after updating their models, analysts' average long-term growth forecast now stands at more than 62%, per LSEG.

These revisions make NVDA look attractively priced once you consider how fast the stock is rising relative to its growth prospects. Indeed, by at least one metric – the price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio – Nvidia stock looks very cheap on a relative valuation basis.

Here's why: since NVDA stock is trading at 35 times expected earnings and has a LTG forecast of more than 62, its forward PEG is 0.6. To put that in perspective, the S&P 500 trades at a PEG of 2.1.

By this measure, NVDA trades at a 70% discount to the broader market. That's not bad, but then Nvidia and the broader market are sort of apples and oranges.

That's why we want to look at Nvidia's PEG relative to its peers and itself. This gives us an idea of what sort of premium the market has been willing to pay for Nvidia's growth prospects in the past.

And what do we find? Bulls will be happy to know that with a PEG ratio of 0.6, Nvidia stock trades at a 70% discount to the semiconductor industry average.

Even more intriguing, however, is that NVDA stock also trades at a steep discount to its own five-year average. Indeed, per LSEG Stock Reports Plus, if Nvidia's PEG "returned to historical form," the stock would trade at $349.04.

That's not a price target, mind you, it's just some modeling. But it does give NVDA stock implied price upside of about 150% from current levels.

As for Wall Street's collective wisdom on this top-rated Dow Jones stock, of the 63 analysts issuing opinions on NVDA surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 47 call it a Strong Buy, 12 have it a Buy and four say it's a Hold.

That works out to a consensus recommendation of Strong Buy, making Nvidia one of the Street's top S&P 500 stocks to buy too.

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Stocks slumped as rising geopolitical tensions and anxiety about the state of all things AI sapped the market's appetite for risk assets. An escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine and Nvidia's third-quarter earnings release slated for release after the close lifted defensive sectors, while safe havens such as the dollar and gold caught a bid.

Russia-Ukraine tensions set the tone for trading early in session, with all three major benchmarks gapping lower at the open and staying negative for much of the session.

Reports that Ukraine for the first time fired cruise missiles supplied by the U.K. at targets inside Russia raised alarms, as the attack came a day after Ukraine first employed U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) on targets in Russia.

At the same time, market participants awaited Nvidia's (NVDA) highly anticipated third-quarter earnings release, slated for after the close. Indeed, NVDA earnings have become an event on par with the jobs report or the conclusion of the next Fed meeting when it comes to figuring out where the market might be headed.

As for Nvidia's fiscal third-quarter results, analysts tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast earnings to rise 85% year over year to 74 cents per share and revenue to jump 82% to $33 billion.

Readers can follow live updates and commentary on Nvidia earnings as they develop later today.

Wherever NVDA stock goes from here, it's already the top-rated Dow Jones stock as well as one of Wall Street's best S&P 500 stocks to buy. Furthermore, anyone who invested $1,000 in Nvidia stock 20 years ago would be thrilled with their returns today.

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average spent much of the session in the red before rallying into the close, ending up 0.3% at 43,408. The broader S&P 500 closed flat after falling as much as 1% earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recovered much of its earlier losses to finish off 0.1% at 18,966.

Stocks on the move

Target (TGT) stock plunged 21.4% after the big box retailer missed top- and bottom-line expectations for its third quarter and slashed its full-year profit forecast.

"We encountered some unique challenges and cost pressures that impacted our bottom-line performance," Target CEO Brian Cornell said in a news release.

For its fourth quarter, Target said it expects approximately flat same-store sales growth and earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $1.85 to $2.45. The midpoint of its earnings-per-share forecast, $2.15, came in significantly below the $2.62 per share analysts were modeling.

For the full fiscal year, Target said it now expects EPS to arrive between $8.30 to $8.90, down from its previous forecast for earnings of $9 to $9.70.

TJX Companies (TJX) stock added 0.2% after the parent company of TJ Maxx, HomeGoods and Sierra beat top- and bottom-line expectations for its fiscal 2025 third quarter and raised its full-year profit forecast.

As a result of its "above-plan profitability results in the third quarter," TJX raised its full-year profit forecast. It now expects to achieve EPS in the range of $4.15 to $4.17, up from its previous forecast of $4.09 to $4.13. Management added that it continues to anticipate consolidated comparable-store sales to rise 3%.

For the fourth quarter, TJX said it expects to achieve comparable-store sales growth in the range of 2% to 3% and earnings per share between $1.12 to $1.14. However, the midpoint of this range, $1.13 per share, came up short of the average analyst estimate of approximately $1.18 per share.

Comcast shrinks to grow

In a massive industry shakeup, Comcast (CMCSA) rose 1.6% after the telecommunications and media conglomerate announced its intention to spin off select cable networks and digital assets into a new publicly traded company.

Comcast said Wednesday it will spin off select cable television networks, including USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY and the Golf Channel.

The spinoff includes some of CMCSA's digital assets, including Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow and SportsEngine. It will create a new publicly traded company called SpinCo.

"When you look at our assets, talented management team and balance sheet strength, we are able to set these businesses up for future growth," Comcast CEO Brian Roberts said in a statement. "With significant financial resources from day one, SpinCo will be ideally positioned for success and highly attractive to investors, content creators, distributors and potential partners."

SpinCo will be a pure-play news, sports and entertainment business reaching approximately 70 million households and will be led by Mark Lazarus, the current chairman of NBCUniversal Media Group, as CEO.

Shares in Comcast, which was once considered to be a contender for inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, lag the S&P 500 on an annualized total return basis by very wide margins over the past one-, three-, five- and 10-year periods.

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Stocks were mostly positive on Monday, but the Dow was weighed down by Nvidia (NVDA) and Nike (NKE). Still, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were boosted by Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) as well as an upbeat reading for a widely watched homebuilder survey. Looking ahead, Nvidia's earnings report is the highlight of the week, though investors continue the uneven process of pricing in a second Trump administration.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo National Housing Market Index (HMI) printed at 46.0 for November, up from 43.0 in October and better than the 44.5 consensus forecast compiled by FactSet. Still, the HMI remains in contraction territory. But, as Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán notes, it's up seven points compared to 39.0 in August.

All three HMI indexes were up in November, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, highlighted by a seven-point increase to 64 in the survey result for sales expectations in the next six months. Current sales conditions rose two points to 49, while traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 32.

"Although the improvement in the Housing Market Index is good news for the new home sales market," Alemán writes, "it is clear that builders have continued to use incentives, including lower prices, to incentivize sales." The economist also observes that homebuilders still face labor and buildable lot shortages.

"On the positive side, they were upbeat that a Republican sweep would help the industry by reducing regulatory burdens for the industry," Alemán continues. "However, this seems like wishful thinking as housing market regulatory issues are dependent on state and local governments rather than at the Federal government level."

The Census Bureau will provide additional insights into the home construction market when it releases housing starts and building permits data for October tomorrow morning at 8:30 am Eastern. According to FactSet, the median forecast for housing starts is a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.34 million, down from 1.35 million in September. The median forecast for building permits is 1.44 million, up from 1.43 million in September.

The Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% to close at 18,791. The S&P 500 was up 0.4% to 5,893. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, above and below the breakeven line multiple times throughout the session, closed lower by 0.1% to 43,389.

Netflix scores with Friday Night Fights

Netflix gapped higher at Monday's opening bell and closed up 2.8% following its Friday Night Fights live event featuring a Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul match. Despite glitches impacting the experience for millions of subscribers that threatened to turn Tyson vs Paul into a technical knockout before the boxers even touched gloves, Netflix can claim a successful proof of case.

"If you stayed up past midnight ET to watch Paul vs Tyson, you know a lot more people than expected tuned in, as NFLX had bandwidth issues," writes Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein (Overweight, the equivalent of Buy). As Helfstein notes, over the weekend Netflix reported 60 million households watched its Friday Night Fights event, and viewership peaked at 65 million concurrent streams.

These numbers highlight "NFLX's ability to generate viewership, suggesting the company will be successful with advertising around live events," Helfstein says. The analyst's math – "assuming 2.5 viewers per household implies 150 million viewers" and that number "compares to 124 million for the 2024 Super Bowl" – suggests NFLX achieved "the highest viewership for any U.S. broadcast" this year.

Netflix management recently reported that its ad-tier subscription plan reached 70 million monthly average users and has grown by more than 75% since May, "approaching critical scale for advertisers," according to Helfstein. The streaming giant's next live event is a Christmas Day NFL doubleheader featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens vs the Houston Texans.

"While the press will focus on the technical bandwidth issues and customer complaints, our guess is that viewing was likely ~2x internal expectations, a high-quality problem that can be easily fixed by Christmas Day," Helfstein said.

Netflix is upbeat about its future too. "We're pleased that we've reaccelerated our growth and, as we head into 2025, we expect to deliver solid revenue and profit growth by both improving our core series and film offering while investing in new growth initiatives like ads and gaming," management said in its third-quarter earnings announcement. Analysts are still adjusting their price targets, but Wall Street is generally bullish on NFLX.

Tesla surges on EV credit repeal plan

Tesla stock took off Monday, rising 5.6% on the incoming Trump administration's plan to repeal Biden-era tax credits for electric vehicles (EV) and establish a federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles. Tesla stock remains volatile following Trump's victory.

According to Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, "This would be a huge step forward in easing U.S. rules for self-driving cars and be a significant tailwind for Tesla's autonomous and AI vision heading into 2025." Ives and Wedbush "estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth $1 trillion alone for Tesla." They maintain their Outperform (Buy) rating and $400 price target for TSLA stock.

"EV tax credits getting pulled [are] a negative for the industry … [but] bullish for Tesla," Ives writes.

"Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic will give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment starting in 2025, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players (BYD, Nio, etc.) from flooding the US market over the coming years," Ives adds.

Nvidia reports earnings this Wednesday

Nvidia, which is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, was down 1.3% Monday on a report by The Information that its new Blackwell chips are overheating when installed in high-capacity server racks.

The chipmaker's earnings announcements have become major Wall Street events. Indeed, ahead of the next Nvidia Day, as The Wall Street Journal reports, "Nvidia's stock has moved more than 9% on average following its last eight reports."

According to FactSet, analysts expect Nvidia to report sales of approximately $33 billion and earnings of $17.4 billion, up from $18.1 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively, a year ago.

We continue to track news about the company ahead of its fiscal third-quarter earnings event on our Nvidia earnings blog.

Stocks on the move

Nike led the Dow lower with a loss of 2.4%, as the athletic footwear and apparel retailer continues to face challenging trends.

"NKE's foot traffic levels declined 14% year over year (YoY) in October (vs -16% in September and -3% in August)," writes Jefferies analyst Randal Konik in a November 15 note. Web traffic levels declined 25% YoY in October following a 25% and 15% declines in September and August, Konik notes. The analyst remains "cautious on the company's go-forward performance."

The blue chip stock has dragged on the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a loss of more than 25% so far in 2024.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was down 6.9% Monday and was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500. This comes after PLTR rose more than 11% Friday on management's announcement that it intends to change the public listing of the tech stock from the Nasdaq to the New York Stock Exchange.

On November 4, Palantir reported another beat-and-raise quarter, with U.S. revenue rising 44% year over year and 14% quarter over quarter (QoQ). Total revenue was up 30% YoY and 7% QoQ.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged nearly 16% on a report from Barron's that it intends to submit a plan to the Listing Qualifications Department of the Nasdaq Stock Market on Monday that will allow it to regain compliance and continue to trade on the exchange.