The July Fed meeting kicked off on Tuesday, July 28, and concluded today, July 29, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

Oil prices have been volatile recently amid on-again, off-again fighting between the U.S. and Iran. But while crude futures were lower to start Fed week, they're up more than 20% for July, which is likely to keep headline inflation readings hot in the near term.

Still, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to interest rates steady this time around, though a few committee members voted to raise rates.

The Kiplinger team reported live on the July Fed meeting, bringing you the news and expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy and your money. Scroll for the latest updates.

How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | How the New Fed Chair Could Impact What You Pay in Taxes this Year | Navigating the New Fed: 5 Conflicts Kevin Warsh Has to Tackle Now

The stock market trades mixed to start Fed week

Stocks are mixed at midday Monday as market participants weigh falling oil prices and a continued sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 52,099, boosted by strength in mega caps Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

But the broader S&P 500 is down 0.04% at 7,408 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is off 0.2% at 24,924, with heavy losses for Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) dragging on the indexes.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury yield is off 1.5 basis points at 4.316% and the 10-year Treasury yield is 3.2 basis points lower at 4.647%, though both remain near their highest points since early 2025.

- Karee Venema

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from July 28 through July 29, marks the fifth gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm, though this could change under Warsh's leadership.

Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

• July 28 to 29
• September 15 to 16
• October 27 to 28
• December 8 to 9

- Karee Venema

Oil prices are lower Monday as U.S. and Iran pause fighting

Oil prices are starting Fed week on a negative note, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 6.5% at $83.50 per barrel.

This comes after a Reuters report indicated that Iran has agreed to pause strikes in the region as long as Washington agrees to do the same.

But "the situation remains far from resolved," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruption in the Red Sea mean energy markets remain vulnerable to fresh headlines, and any setback in negotiations could quickly send crude prices higher once again."

- Karee Venema

Who is Kevin Warsh?

The July Fed meeting will mark Kevin Warsh's second as head of the Federal Reserve. But who is Kevin Warsh?

Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011. He was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.

Before his time at the Federal Reserve, Warsh was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.

Leading up to his May 2026 confirmation as Fed chair, Warsh was a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

He is widely viewed as a "hawk" on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.

At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.

Warsh said in mid-2025 that "the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential," adding "that doesn't mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does."

Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.

Read more: The New Fed Chair Was Announced: What You Need to Know

- David Dittman

The July Fed meeting is a "live" one

With inflation risks elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, Wall Street isn't sure what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates this time around.

The odds of a rate hike have been climbing recently. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 36% chance of a quarter-percentage-point increase to the federal funds rate on Wednesday — up from 16% one week ago.

And given Chair Warsh's "clear hawkish bias," this makes the July Fed meeting a "live" one, says Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

In addition to the "will they or won't they" narrative on interest rates, markets are also contending with the additional "challenge of working out the potential path forward for policy from here, given [Warsh's] antipathy towards forward guidance," Rodda adds.

- Karee Venema

Who gets to vote at the July Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
• Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
• Fed Governor Michael Barr
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook
• Fed Governor Jerome Powell
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller
• New York Fed President John Williams
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
• Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

- Karee Venema

How higher inflation — and interest rates — will impact Big Tech

Oil prices and their impact on inflation are just one uncertainty keeping Wall Street wondering what the Fed will do with interest rates. But there are others, says Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, including President Donald Trump's recently announced tariffs, which will impose 10% to 25% levies on a variety of goods from major trading partners.

And this has major implications for Big Tech, which is ramping up capital expenditures to support artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. Until recently, many of the biggest companies have been financing this spending boom through free cash flow, meaning higher interest rates weren't really an issue.

But now, says Schutte, several of these free-cash-flow-positive firms have tapped capital markets — both debt and equity — to fund their spending. He points to Alphabet (GOOGL), which said last week that it has increased its full-year capex budget to $205 billion at the high end and posted its first-ever quarter of negative free cash flow. It also announced an $80 billion stock sale in June to raise cash.

"We believe this marks an important shift," explains Schutte. "These companies, and the AI build-out more broadly, now increasingly rely on external capital to fund ever-growing investments, making them more economically sensitive as higher interest rates increase the cost of capital. The rising expense also raises questions about whether companies deploying AI will realize benefits quickly enough to justify continued spending."

Schutte does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week. He wonders, though, if the central bank will move to lift the federal funds rate sooner rather than later to ensure that higher inflation, which has been running above target for several years now and is unlikely to recede soon given mounting price pressures, does not become embedded in the economy. And this could have a major impact on Big Tech.

- Karee Venema

How well do you know the Fed?

Fed meetings have become key events as central bank officials try to balance high inflation and labor market hiccups against the White House's desire for lower interest rates.

But how well do you know the Fed?

With the next Fed meeting on deck, we decided to test your basic knowledge of the Federal Reserve with a quick quiz.

Master Your Fed Knowledge: Take Our Quick Federal Reserve Quiz

There's a range of possible outcomes for the July Fed meeting, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

The July Fed meeting could have several potential outcomes, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel.

The central bank made clear following its June meeting that it remains focused on price stability. And while the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was much softer than expected, Zureick notes, "geopolitical tensions have flared once again, reviving concerns that higher energy prices could renew upward inflation pressure."

But the FOMC will not see any July inflation data before this week's meeting, so the chief economist expects the Fed to keep interest rates at their current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. "However, policymakers are also likely to emphasize that they remain prepared to raise rates if subsequent inflation reports surprise meaningfully to the upside," he adds.

And with no Summary of Economic Projections released this time around, meaning market participants will not see any new economic forecasts or interest-rate projections from committee members, Wall Street will watch Chair Warsh's post-meeting press conference "closely for any clues about the Fed’s desired path for monetary policy," says Zureick.

- Karee Venema

Dow, S&P 500 close higher as oil prices decline

Stocks closed mixed Monday as market participants weighed falling oil prices against an extended sell-off in chipmakers.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 8.1% to $82.04 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by nine basis points to 4.322%.

Both are still much higher than they were before the war between the U.S. and Iran started on February 28. But the immediate reaction to the suspension of attacks in the U.S.-Iran war "implies further equity upside when the conflict is fully over," according to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% to 52,209, and the broad-based S&P 500 had inched up 0.02% to 7,413 But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% to 24,932.

Read more: Markets Weigh Peace Hope Against AI Fear: Stock Market Today

Markets remain mixed ahead of the July Fed meeting

Crude oil prices are trending lower and interest rates are also easing back, but equity futures indicate a mixed stock market about an hour before Tuesday's opening bell.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are poised to open higher, though the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite continues to be weighed down by concerns about returns on AI investments.

Still, like most investors, traders and speculators, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will welcome another lull in the war in the Middle East and will hope it evolves into sustainable peace between the U.S. and Iran.

Indeed, rising energy prices because of the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz are the primary reason price action in the fed funds futures market suggests the Fed's next move will be to raise interest rates.

It probably won't happen at the July Fed meeting, which starts today and ends tomorrow. But multiple voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have expressed fear of inflation accelerating again.

That makes this meeting a "live" one, meaning Warsh & Co. could raise rates. And CME FedWatch says the central bank will raise the fed funds futures rate as soon as September.

– David Dittman

Citadel strategist says the Fed hikes this week

"The market may once again be underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift at the Fed," writes Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities, in a note previewing this week's FOMC meeting.

Indeed, Flight says the Fed will raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, a move that "would emphatically end the forward guidance era."

The strategist refers to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's campaign to rein in central bankers' talk about the future.

Raising interest rates would also strike a blow for Fed independence, Flight notes, and underscore Warsh's commitment to "price stability."

– David Dittman

Trump says Fed Chair Warsh is "fantastic"

President Donald Trump has carved out a safe space for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, even as markets price in higher interest rates.

"Kevin's fantastic, but he's got a board, and the board members are very political, I would say," Trump said to reporters on Monday. "He wants to do the right thing. I know what he wants to do."

Warsh wants "price stability," though it's fair to say Trump put him at the Fed to the federal funds rate.

Indeed, on Monday the president repeated his claim that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world.

"You need the consent of some people that have perhaps bad intentions. Rates should be lowered. This country could be at 8%, 9%, 10%, 12% GDP. That’s what it should be," he said.

"We should have the lowest interest rate in the world, like it used to be 30 years ago," he added.

The main equity indexes remain mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 in positive territory, but the Nasdaq Composite still suffering the burden of heavy AI expectations.

Crude oil prices are down, and Treasury yields are lower across the maturity spectrum.

– David Dittman

Are you ready for "higher for longer" long-term rates?

"Interest rates have steadily risen since the start of the Iran War," Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Marc Zandi writes in a preview of the July Fed meeting, "and are an increasingly heavy burden on the economy."

The 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.960% on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East started, and closed at 4.641% on Monday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, as Zandi notes, has risen from below 6% to above 6.8%.

"Somewhat surprisingly, the runup in rates is not because of higher inflation expectations," Zandi observes. "They’re unchanged."

Indeed, the market believes Fed Chair Kevin Warsh when he says he's committed to "price stability," and that the central bank will "press on the brakes" and raise interest rates to stem inflation. Hence the rise in the 2-year Treasury yield.

"Arguably more surprising is that the other half of the increase in T-yields is an increase in the term premium," the economist says.

The "term premium" is extra yield on a longer-term bond because there's more risk vs a shorter-term bond or other alternative. It's not a good thing that it's "suddenly about as wide as it has been since the wake of the Global Financial Crisis."

And Zandi is concerned about the new Fed chair's communications policy. "It can’t help that the new Fed chair believes the Fed should be less transparent in setting monetary policy. This means greater uncertainty and, thus, volatility in rates," Zandi explains.

"Then there is the Iran War, which is increasingly costly to the Treasury," Zandi adds. "The nation's dark fiscal outlook is getting darker."

Higher prices for crude oil and other commodities have left a notable economic impact. "But the damage from the conflict’s fallout on monetary policy and long-term interest rates is mounting quickly," the economist concludes.

"Higher-for-longer interest rates will be increasingly tough for the economy to bear."

– David Dittman

What Warsh (and Bessent (and Trump?)) really want

The solution to the basic problem Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Marc Zandi describes–higher-for-longer long-term term rates–could be an increase to the federal funds rate.

That's how Wells Fargo Securities Chief Economist Tom Porcelli sees it.

"By raising rates, Warsh (and by extension Bessent) will get what they ultimately want: back-end rates to move lower. The thinking goes that by hiking, Warsh will firm up his inflation fighting cred and squeeze out the inflation premium built into the back end of the rates market."

Zandi emphasized the "term" part in his note. But the operative part is the premium. If it comes down, things like 30-year mortgage rates could move lower.

That's what recent history suggests, as Bloomberg's Robert Burgess observes: "The recently deceased Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan found that out back in 2024, when the central bank started raising its target for the federal funds rate from 1% to 4.25% by early 2006 only to see longer-term bond yields fall."

Amid "Greenspan's conundrum," 30-year mortgage rates fell from 6.34% to 5.47%.

– David Dittman

Crude oil sell-off reaccelerates

Prices for the front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures contracts spiked lower late Tuesday morning amid more fresh hopes for peace in the Middle East.

WTI was down 0.7% at the opening bell, Brent 0.4%. A sell-off that started on Monday with President Donald Trump saying there's a chance the U.S. and Iran could make a deal to end the war in the Middle East accelerated shortly after 11 am Eastern Standard Time.

WTI, the domestic benchmark, plunged to $77.80 per barrel, down 5.8% from its Monday closing price. Brent, the global crude benchmark, slid 6.6%.

Interest rates are also falling, with the 2-year Treasury yield down to 4.266% vs 4.323% on Monday, the 10-year down to 4.59% from 4.641%, and the 30-year at 5.092% vs 5.125%.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied to join the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the green for the day.

Semiconductor stocks are still struggling, though Nvidia (NVDA) was among 27 of 30 Dow Jones stocks in positive territory.

– David Dittman

Rate hike odds recede

CME FedWatch showed a 68.5% probability the target range for the federal funds rate will still be 3.50% to 3.75% when the July Fed meeting wraps up on Wednesday. That's up from 63.7% at the closing bell on Monday.

At the same time, price action in the fed funds futures market shows the odds of a 25 basis-point rate hike in September have ticked back to 55.6% from 55.7%.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract is down more than 4%, and the 2-year Treasury yield is lower by five basis points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 1% heading into the final hour of trading for the first day of the July Fed meeting. The S&P 500 is in positive territory, too.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is struggling to stay above the breakeven line. But investors, traders and speculators seem encouraged again by prospects for peace in the Middle East.

– David Dittman

Trump v Fed governors

Whether threats against the Fed's independence create upward pressure on interest rates seems a moot point when the executive branch is using tariffs and wars of choice as its principal tools of foreign policy.

Both the 2-year and the 30-year Treasury yields have hit new 52-week highs in recent weeks, pushed up by the energy shock emanating from the Strait of Hormuz, mostly, but also due to the lingering impact of Trump's tariffs.

Still, when President Donald Trump says things like, "Kevin’s fantastic, but he’s got a board, and the board members are very political," and refers to those board members as "some people that have perhaps bad intentions," Fed watchers are going to pay close attention.

There is, after all, an active case on the federal docket about whether President Trump can fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Indeed, among the multiple conflicts Fed Chair Kevin Warsh must navigate is a potential attempt to remove Fed Governor Michael Barr.

– David Dittman

Chip stocks are still a drag on the Nasdaq

Stocks were choppy early on Tuesday, but falling oil prices and a round of well-received corporate earnings helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 climb higher into the close.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4% to settle at $79.26 per barrel.

The Nasdaq Composite, however, couldn't sidestep an extended slump in chip stocks.

Read more: Dow Soars 537 Points on Strong Blue-Chip Earnings: Stock Market Today

The most important day for stocks?

Today may be the most important day for stocks in recent memory, says Rick Gardner, chief investment officer of RGA Investments. One thing Wall Street does not like is uncertainty, so today's update from Fed Chair Warsh on interest rates and inflation amid volatile oil prices will be welcome.

Gardner does not expect a rate hike this time around given that "bond yields have already risen to the upper end of their trading range, and have essentially acted as a rate hike without the Federal Reserve making any adjustments."

In addition to the Fed meeting, market participants will also see quarterly results from mega-cap companies Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) after tonight's close.

These earnings reports, as well as those from Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), which are due out after Thursday's close, "may help shed light on whether or not we are finally seeing a return on investment for the massive amounts of AI spending taking place," explains Gardner.

- Karee Venema

Stocks trade lower on Fed Day as oil prices spike

Stocks are in negative territory early Wednesday as oil prices jump. At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2% at 52,105, the broader S&P 500 was off 0.4% at 7,400, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.4% lower at 24,769.

After falling in recent sessions, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures have spiked 7.1% to $84.88 per barrel as Iran initiated "surprise attacks" against U.S. forces in the Middle East, according to a U.S. Central Command social media post.

Semiconductor stocks are also creating headwinds, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) down 1.8%.

- Karee Venema

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, July 29.

"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East," the FOMC stated in its scaled-back June statement. "Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."

The committee reiterated its goal to deliver price stability as inflation remains above its 2% goal.

This time around, "the policy statement will likely lay out another mixed picture of inflation's drivers," says Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. "On the one hand, good news from relatively tame house prices and rent increases, and from the dissipating impact of 2025's tariff hikes. On the other, bad news from rebounding energy prices as disruptions to Mideast and Russian exports resurface; new tariffs; AI-related pressure on electronics prices; and labor supply bottlenecks pushing up prices of services like home health care and nursing care."

Adams feels that if the FOMC or Fed Chair Warsh gives "even an inkling of guidance," it will be for a data-dependent approach to the September policy decision.

- Karee Venema

Why boring is an attractive option for investors right now

Brian Rehling, co-head of Global Fixed Income and Digital Asset Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at all this year.

But he does believe that if inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the central bank will keep the federal funds rate higher for longer. This makes the next few inflation reports critical ones for Wall Street.

In this environment, Rehling says that short-term fixed income is an attractive option for investors because it allows for attractive yields without interest-rate risk.

"Short-term Treasuries, certificates of deposit (CDs), and money-market funds may not be flashy, but they can do a lot of work in a portfolio when the Fed is focused on inflation and rates are likely to stay elevated," he explains. "Sometimes the boring part of the portfolio earns its keep."

- Karee Venema

Kevin Warsh's dilemma

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve today, and whether it will raise interest rates, or signal an intention to raise them later this year, to combat inflation that remains persistently above the Fed's own 2% target.

Unfortunately for Kevin Warsh, the central bank's new chair, much of the inflationary pressure hitting the U.S. economy comes from a source he can't do much about: High oil prices. The conflict in the Middle East has limited oil exports from the Persian Gulf and pushed U.S. retail gas prices up by about $1 per gallon since late winter.

As the fighting continues with no immediate resolution in sight, Warsh has got to be feeling like he's caught between a rock and a hard place. Raising interest rates won't ease the oil crunch, but it's the main tool the Fed has for slowing the economy to cool off inflation. So which will be the less-bad option in his view? We'll find out soon.

- Jim Patterson

What time does Kevin Warsh speak today?

Fed Chair Warsh will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, July 29.

"With little forward guidance to lean on, the statement language and Warsh's press conference will carry outsized weight," explain Jason Pride, chief of Investment Strategy & Research and Michael Reynolds, vice president of Investment Strategy at Glenmede. "Markets will be parsing both for any signal on how the Committee is weighing the balance between still-firm inflation and an economy that continues to hold up, offering the clearest read yet on its evolving reaction function."

The two don't expect a rate hike this afternoon as the central bank waits to see if the energy shock dissipates. "For markets, the greater near-term uncertainty is less about this meeting's outcome and more about learning how a Warsh-led Fed will communicate and react going forward," they conclude.

- Karee Venema

Stocks trade lower ahead of the Fed, bond yields rise

Blue chip stocks outperformed on Tuesday, but they're selling off on Fed Day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last seen down 1.4% at 52,033 as high-priced component Caterpillar (CAT) sinks 6% on a downgrade to Hold from Buy at Baird.

The S&P 500 is off 0.5% at 7,389 and the Nasdaq Composite is 0.5% lower at 24,759.

Over in the bond market, the 2-year Treasury yield is up 5.3 basis points at 4.33%. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note (+4.3 basis points at 4.647%) and 30-year note (+2.4 basis points at 5.121%) are higher, as well.

- Karee Venema

The Fed keeps rates unchanged in split decision

The Fed just announced that it is keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged, in a range of 3.5-3.75%. In a terse statement, it noted that the economy is "expanding at a solid pace," but also acknowledged that inflation remains above its target of 2%, due in part to the situation in the Middle East causing energy prices to rise. "The Committee will deliver price stability," it declared, but with no details on how.

Worth noting, three voting members of the FOMC — Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan — dissented from the no-change policy and voted to raise the Fed's rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Such dissensions have not been typical in recent years, raising questions about how long the Fed can maintain rates at their present level.

- Jim Patterson

Where can I watch Fed Chair Warsh's press conference?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

Who voted to raise rates?

The July Fed meeting decision was a split one, with three committee members voting to raise rates by a quarter-percentage point.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are considered to be the super hawks on the FOMC, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is hawkish, but less so than the other two.

There are two other moderate hawks on the committee — Fed Governor Michael Barr and Fed Governor Christopher Waller — who voted in favor of holding rates steady.

The seven remaining members are considered to be either dovish or middle-of-the-road.

- David Payne

September rate hike odds spike

Following today's split decision from the Federal Open Market Committee, futures traders are now pricing in a 72% chance the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-percentage point in September.

This is up from around 55% ahead of this afternoon's announcement and 30% odds one month ago, according to CME Group FedWatch.

- Karee Venema

The Fed has one inflation target, says Warsh

At the beginning of his prepared remarks, Chair Warsh acknowledged that inflation has been above the Fed's target level for five years now, and that that sustained period of inflation has taken a toll on consumers and businesses.

He was adamant that on his watch, the Fed is totally committed to returning inflation to its 2% target, and that there is no "soft" target higher than 2% that he and his colleagues would accept as good enough.

- Jim Patterson

Markets have done plenty to tighten financial conditions

In his prepared remarks, Warsh emphasized that he does not want the Fed to drop hints about what it might do with interest rates in the future.

He has already announced that the Fed won't be using such "forward guidance" as a policymaking tool. He wants the markets to "play the ball, not the referee," to use a sports metaphor, meaning that he wants the financial markets to determine things like the yields on Treasury bonds without trying to guess what the Fed will do with its benchmark short-term interest rate.

Yields on Treasuries have in fact risen since his first FOMC meeting, Warsh noted. "The markets have done quite a bit" to tighten financial conditions without the Fed acting.

- Jim Patterson

How close was today's FOMC vote?

"This is a period of watchful thinking, not watchful waiting," Warsh said, when asked how close the vote to keep the Fed's rate steady really was among his colleagues.

Some voting members of the FOMC were more or less firm about whether to keep rates steady as they try to determine where inflation is going, he said. The implication was that, while most of the FOMC members voted to not raise rates at this meeting, it was not a decision made on autopilot.

And given how emphatic he has been about assuring that the Fed will get inflation down to its 2% target, that certainly opens the door to interest rate hikes at coming Fed meetings.

- Jim Patterson

What will Warsh talk about at Jackson Hole? He's not sure yet.

Asked how he sees the speech he will give at the Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in August, Warsh joked that it looked like a blank piece of paper to him right now. In other words, while he noted that the annual Jackson Hole speech by the Fed chair is typically treated as an opportunity to set the stage for changes to monetary policy, he said he has not yet made any specific decisions about what he will be signaling next month.

Meanwhile, financial markets are showing strong odds of a Fed rate hike at its September meeting. So even if he doesn't know yet what he's going to say in August, Warsh will probably know exactly what markets and investors will be wondering about when he addresses them in Jackson Hole.

- Jim Patterson

The Fed should not hint at its plans outside of extreme circumstances, says Warsh

While he does not want the Fed to telegraph its policy moves in advance, and wants to let financial markets trade without trying to guess what it will do, he also says that the central bank does not want to surprise markets. And during times of severe turmoil, such as the 2008 financial crisis, he said the Fed should give markets ample guidance about what it is likely to do.

But outside of those extreme circumstances, he wants the Fed to pull back, let markets operate, and not put his thumb on the scale by giving hints about future rate changes. It remains to be seen how markets react to being told to operate without any hints on what the Fed is planning to do.

- Jim Patterson

Can the Fed chair avoid raising rates? Time will tell.

A final takeaway from Kevin Warsh's press conference is that the Fed chair appears to hope he can avoid raising short-term interest rates.

But others on the committee may not agree that changing inflation expectations and counting on rising long-term rates will do the job of reducing inflation.

September 16th (the next meeting), here we come.

- David Payne

War and AI drag on the Dow

Oil prices surged and the stock market's "fear gauge" spiked as the war between the U.S. and Iran escalated again on Wednesday, while even exponential growth for AI-related companies is letting down investors, traders and speculators.

The July Fed meeting ended where markets thought it would: with interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight time but central bankers worried about inflation and the energy shock.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 1.7%, the broad-based S&P 500 was down 1.5%, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 2.2%.

Read more: Dow Drops 1,153 Points as Crude Pops on Fed Day: Stock Market Today

A September rate hike is possible, but far from a certainty, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

While the Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected, the split decision underscores the concern several policymakers have over the persistence of inflation, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel. But throughout his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability.

"Consistent with his preference for providing less forward guidance, however, Warsh offered few clues about the future path of monetary policy," says Zureick. "For now, attention will shift to the Fed's September meeting and the inflation data released between now and then."

The economist believes a rate hike could be considered at the Fed's September meeting if "the conflict with Iran continues through late summer and keeps energy prices elevated." On the other hand, he says that "a rapid reversal in energy prices could provide some welcome relief, giving policymakers more time to assess whether tighter monetary policy is warranted."

According to CME Group FedWatch, financial markets are pricing in a 63% chance the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-percentage point in September. This, says Zureick indicates "that investors see higher rates as a meaningful possibility, but far from a certainty."

- Karee Venema

The June Fed meeting concluded on Wednesday June 17, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

With energy prices still high and inflation accelerating, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged this time around.

Wall Street was also tuned into new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting press conference, where he unveiled new changes that are coming to the central bank.

The Kiplinger team reported on the June Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.

How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | 3 Ways Kevin Warsh Will Change the Fed | How the New Fed Chair Could Impact What You Pay in Taxes this Year

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from June 16 through June 17, marks the fourth gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows.

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm, though this could change under Warsh's leadership.

Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

• June 16 to 17
• July 28 to 29
• September 15 to 16
• October 27 to 28
• December 8 to 9

The stock market is trading higher to start Fed week

Stocks are solidly in positive territory on Monday as market participants cheer signs of potential peace in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on X "that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED." President Donald Trump later confirmed the news.

At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1% at 51,928, the broader S&P 500 was 1.9% higher at 7,573, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 3% to 26,667.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note is down 3.3 basis points at 4.052%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is off 2.4 basis points at 4.461%.

- Karee Venema

Who is Kevin Warsh?

On May 13, the Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair, replacing Jerome Powell, who had served in that position since 2018.

But who is Kevin Warsh?

Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011. He was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.

Before his time at the Federal Reserve, Warsh was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.

Prior to being confirmed as Fed chair, Warsh was a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

He is widely viewed as a "hawk" on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.

At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.

Warsh said in mid-2025 that "the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential," adding "that doesn't mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does."

Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.

Read more: The New Fed Chair Was Announced: What You Need to Know

- David Dittman

Who gets to vote at the June Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year. The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
• Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
• Fed Governor Michael Barr
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook
• Fed Governor Jerome Powell
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller
• New York Fed President John Williams
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
• Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

- Karee Venema

What Kiplinger economist David Payne is expecting at this week's Fed meeting

Wednesday will be Kevin Warsh's first monetary policy meeting since taking over the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve from Jerome Powell in May. It is not likely that there will be any changes in rates.

The decline in crude oil prices following the agreement to stop the U.S.-Iran war is welcome news for Warsh and the Fed, but it will not be enough for the new chair to persuade his fellow committee members to cut. For the moment, at least, the agreement likely prevents any move to fight inflation by increasing short-term interest rates.

- David Payne

May CPI came in hot as energy prices kept climbing

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last Wednesday and it confirmed that energy prices continue to boost inflation.

According to the BLS, headline inflation was up 0.5% from April to May and 4.2% higher than the year prior. The monthly increase was slower than the 0.6% rise seen in April.

The annual rise signaled an uptick from the 3.8% increase from the month prior and was the highest yearly pace since April 2023. Both figures matched economists' estimates.

"The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase," wrote the BLS in its report.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% month over month, a downshift from April's 0.4% increase and slower than economists expected. Year over year, core inflation was 2.9% higher, slightly faster than the 2.8% increase from the year prior and in line with estimates.

Prices for airfare, medical care and recreation were all higher in May, while costs for new cars, household furnishings and car insurance were lower.

Ahead of the June Fed meeting, many are wondering if higher inflation readings mean the central bank's next move will be a rate hike.

But Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, doesn't see that happening any time soon. "It's clear that rate cuts are off the table, and while there is chatter about a potential rate hike, we believe it's unlikely that we'll see a rate hike before the midterm elections, and any such hike is likely a year away," he says.

Read more: May CPI Shows Inflation Rose at Its Fastest Pace in 3 Years

- Karee Venema

Iran peace deal has big implications for the Fed

Stocks are starting Fed week on a positive note thanks to news that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a potential peace deal.

Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, says the deal has "major implications" for global central banks, given that higher oil prices have accelerated inflationary pressures — and have led many to believe the next moves from policymakers will be tightening rather than easing.

Indeed, CME FedWatch shows that futures traders aren't pricing in any rate cuts this year. At the start of 2026, many folks were anticipating at least two quarter-point rate cuts by December.

And while the recent decline in oil prices "does not eliminate inflation risks altogether," says Hathorn, "it does reduce some of the urgency surrounding them."

And while the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance this time around, the peace deal may give policymakers "greater flexibility to maintain a neutral stance rather than immediately leaning toward further tightening," she adds.

Hathorn believes Fed Chair Warsh's messaging "could prove critical," as markets look "for clarity on whether the Fed views current inflation pressures as temporary and manageable, or whether policymakers still see a need for tighter policy later in the year."

- Karee Venema

The June Fed meeting is historic, but will not bring fireworks, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

Kevin Warsh's first meeting as head of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be "notable from a historic perspective," says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel, considering he is just the 17th person to serve as Fed chair since the Federal Reserve was created in 1914.

But, Zureick adds, "the meeting itself is unlikely to produce substantive policy changes. The FOMC is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, extending the 'wait and see' approach it adopted earlier this year."

The economist will be watching to see if the Fed uses "this meeting to move away from its prior bias toward future rate cuts, reflecting a shift in its assessment of both inflation and the labor market."

While Zureick notes that higher energy prices have increased upward pressure on inflation, "labor market data has improved somewhat, reducing the urgency for additional policy easing." As such, the FOMC could decide that its most prudent course of action is to leave rates unchanged.

"Investors should pay close attention to any changes in the official FOMC statement, particularly language around 'the extent and timing of additional adjustments' to the federal funds rate," he adds.

The economist also points to the importance of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), particularly the dot plot. "When it was last revised in March, the median FOMC forecast still pointed to two additional rate cuts in 2026 — a path that may no longer reflect the Committee's current thinking," Zureick explains. "Instead, investors will need to look to the 2027 median projection for clues about the Fed's desired path for rates beyond this year."

Fed Chair Warsh is likely to encounter a wide range of questions, he says. "While reporters will likely press for clues about how policy may evolve under his leadership, Warsh is unlikely to reveal much. Instead, he will probably emphasize the Fed’s data-dependent approach and the need to preserve flexibility amid an uncertain inflation and growth outlook."

- Karee Venema

What Thrivent's CFO and CIO is watching for in Chair Warsh's first press conference

David Royal, chief financial officer and chief investment officer of Thrivent says Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair will give us insight into several things, including his policy framework and communication style. It will also show us "how he intends to lead the institution through a complex inflation, labor and rate environment."

Here are five things Royal will be watching for in the press conference:

1. How does Chair Warsh frame the inflation picture? "If he describes inflation as broadening beyond energy, that would read as hawkish. Core goods inflation has been flat for the last two months. If he simply notes that fact, it would be dovish, but if he attributes it to the tariff rollback (and especially if he observes that the rollback is a one-time effect), that would be hawkish as it would imply core inflation may rise due to underlying economic factors in coming months."

2. What does he say about forward guidance and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP or "dot plot")? "Warsh has long been skeptical of forward guidance. The key question is whether he simply wants less of it or whether he is signaling a broader rethink of how the Fed communicates policy. I'll also be watching whether he sounds dismissive of the SEP and dot plot, even if he stops short of criticizing them directly. The dot plot still matters, especially if it points to a more neutral or even hawkish stance than markets currently expect."

3. What is Chair Warsh's communication style? "If Warsh is more terse than recent Fed chairs, markets will need to decide whether that reads as discipline or evasiveness. That distinction could matter for term premium and market confidence. His tone may also offer an early signal of whether he intends to lead as a consensus builder or as a reformer."

4. What does he say about Fed independence? "He is almost certain to get a question on Fed independence, and the strength of his response will matter. I'll be listening for whether he offers a routine defense of independence or signals a deeper personal commitment to it. Any sign of a weaker commitment could raise concerns in the Treasury market."

5. What does Chair Warsh say about the Fed's balance sheet? "Warsh has been outspoken about shrinking the balance sheet, so I'll be watching how directly he addresses quantitative tightening in his opening comments and Q&A. The bigger question is whether he sees balance sheet policy and interest-rate policy as separate tools or as moves that should be coordinated."

- Karee Venema

Stocks close higher ahead of the June Fed meeting

Stocks jumped out of the gate and stayed higher through the close as market participants cheered news of potential peace in the Middle East. Oil prices, meanwhile, cratered as reports of a deal to end the months-long war circulated, though the Federal Reserve is still likely to stay on hold at this week's meeting.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbling 4.9% to $80.75 per barrel — their lowest settlement since early March.

As for stocks, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.9% at 51,671 — a new record closing high — the broader S&P 500 was 1.7% higher at 7,554, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had jumped 3.1% to 26,683.

Read more: Dow Hits New High on Iran Deal: Stock Market Today

Futures show mixed open on first day of Fed's Warsh era

Equity index futures pointed to a mixed open on Tuesday, the first day of the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Stocks rallied on Monday after the U.S. and Iran appeared to reach an agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz by Friday.

The 2-year Treasury yield, a proxy for short-term Fed policy on interest rates, ticked up to 4.066% from 4.064% on Monday. The 2-year yield was 3.990% on May 13, the day Warsh was confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down another 4% to around $76 per barrel early Tuesday after sliding almost 5% on Monday.

WTI rose from $67.02 on February 27, the day before hostilities in the Middle East began, to an intraday wartime peak of $119.48 on March 9.

Easing pressure from an energy shock will make Warsh's job a lot easier, with May data showing consumer inflation at a three-year high and producer prices at nearly four-year highs.

– David Dittman

Original 'Fed Whisperer' still doing his thing

Jon Hilsenrath was the first "Fed whisperer," a title he earned during a 26-year career at The Wall Street Journal covering the central bank and other economic and financial beats.

Hilsenrath is now a visiting scholar at Duke University, where he's still doing his Fed thing by collaborating with the economics department on a survey of former officials and staffers ahead of each FOMC meeting.

The one conducted between June 5 and June 12 included 34 former officials and staff members: six former board governors, six former regional bank presidents, and 22 former staff members from the board and regional banks.

Half of them think new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may have to raise interest rates before the end of 2026.

Indeed, 17 of 32 former officials and staff who offered projections said an increase would likely be appropriate in 2026. Fourteen said no increase would be appropriate, and one person said the central bank should cut the federal funds rate.

"The survey panel foresaw little progress reducing inflation in the months ahead," the report said (pdf). "Already-elevated inflation was compounded by higher energy prices associated with conflict in the Persian Gulf."

The median estimate for year-end inflation based on forecasts provided by Hilsenrath's panel of former Fed officials for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) was 3.5%.

The Fed's policy target is 2%. Headline PCE printed at 3.8% last April.

– David Dittman

Papa Dow makes more new highs as Fed meeting opens

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up to a new all-time high on an intraday basis on the first day of the first FOMC meeting with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in charge.

Papa Dow was up 360 points, or 0.7%, as of late morning. The S&P 500 was down about 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.4%.

Both the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures and the Brent crude oil futures contracts were down about 4%, with WTI trading below $80 per barrel for the first time since March.

The 2-year Treasury yield was down to 4.060% vs 4.064% on Monday, as markets continue to price the implications of a Middle East peace deal.

As Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen notes of Brent crude, the futures curve is normalizing as longer-dated contracts move more in line with the front-end price.

“In other words," Allen explains, "investors are no longer pricing a sharp fall in oil prices over the next six months, as that was predicated on an agreement that’s now been announced.”

– David Dittman

Lawyer up: What Kevin Warsh and Jerome Powell have in common

Former Fed chair and current board member Jerome Powell was notable upon his nomination for the top job in 2017 for not being an academic economist.

In the early days of the world's most important central bank and through most of the 20th century, it was common for its leaders to have legal backgrounds before taking on the monetary policy-making role.

From the late 1970s, beginning with Paul Volcker, continuing with Alan Greenspan and including Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, it was all economists.

That is until President Donald Trump nominated Powell. Like Powell, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has a J.D., from Harvard Law School, no less, and is not an academic economist.

Whether a president widely considered the most litigious in U.S. history (in public and private) intended to put his bulldog in front of a central bank staff still heavy with PhDs is an open (and interesting) question.

For sure, though, Warsh will know how to marshal evidence and advocate for lower interest rates.

– David Dittman

'There's a lot at play' for Kevin Warsh

Kathleen Hays is a former economics reporter for Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN and is the current editor-in-chief of Central Bank Central.

Dennis Lockhart is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. His tenure at the Atlanta Fed overlapped with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's term on the Fed board from 2006 to 2011.

Today, Hays published an interview with Lockhart about Warsh and what he's looking for from Jerome Powell's successor amid his first FOMC meeting in charge of the central bank.

“Kevin, in my experience, which is four years of overlap, really was quite conservative in the sense that he feared the consequences of the balance sheet growth,” Lockhart told Hays. “He was an inflation hawk and I think was a big believer and respecter of Fed traditions and the modes of operation."

He also said Warsh will “work hard to be a consensus builder and collaborate with his colleagues.”

According to Lockhart, "The next few months will play out in a way that tells us whether inflation is going to be persistent above target or disinflation is going to resume, but it’s far from certain that prices are going to be restored to prewar levels.”

The former central banker says it's "probably far from certain that the Strait of Hormuz will operate the way it did pre-war," adding that the Iranians may continue to try to leverage their position.

Lockhart and Hays also talk about the Fed's independence. "So I think there’s a lot at play," Lockhart concludes, "much of which is not susceptible to monetary policy as a solution."

– David Dittman

A former Fed staffer talks about the new Fed chair's 'good family fight'

Claudia Sahm is a former Fed staffer who writes about central banking and other things that matter to the economy, working people and investors at Stay-At-Home-Macro.

(That's S-A-H-M, as in "Sahm," and speaking as a wordsmith who loves acronyms, that's clever…)

Today, of course, Sahm is previewing the in-progress Fed meeting ahead of tomorrow's anticlimactic decision on interest rates.

"The Fed faces a genuine challenge," she writes. "Inflation is rising, driven largely by an energy supply shock — and the textbook response to a supply shock is to look through it, since rate hikes can't fix a shortage and only squeeze families already paying more."

At the same time, inflation has been running above the Fed's 2% target for five years. As Sahm explains, more and more Fed officials think a half-decade of hot inflation "changes the calculus," and it amounts to "a real disagreement, not noise."

Sahm says the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot-plot – "the one public window into the debate" – may show a hawkish shift, and she cites a survey of former Fed officials and staff we talked about earlier today indicating that kind of movement.

"The risk is that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a longtime skeptic of the Fed's forecasts, might decline to submit his own dots or play down the SEP," Sahm says. "That would draw less attention to the dots — but it would also mask the range of views just as that range becomes the story."

As Sahm concludes, "Warsh says he wants a 'good family fight' on the committee. The dot plot is how the rest of us see it. Improve it, don't bury it."

– David Dittman

Fed Zeppelin: when whisperers aren't loud enough

Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, who has inherited Jon Hilsenrath's title as "Fed whisperer," writes about new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and how he might change the way the central bank communicates with the public in his preview of this week's FOMC meeting.

"For more than a decade," Timiraos notes, "Warsh has argued that the Fed should say less. How much a central bank reveals about its thinking shapes mortgage rates, markets and the cost of borrowing for everyone."

Naturally, he concludes, "Wall Street will parse Wednesday's meeting, his first as Fed chairman, for any sign of where he'll take it." Indeed, that Warsh is holding a press conference tomorrow is significant.

Perhaps, though, instead of a bunch of "Fed whisperers" to describe things like this potential communication breakdown, the thing we really need right now is the "hammer of the gods."

Here are five Led Zeppelin songs that explain the biggest central bank in the world right now.

– David Dittman

Stocks are mixed on the first day of the June Fed meeting

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high, rising above 52,000 for the first time, but tech stocks slumped and weighed on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite during the first day of the first FOMC meeting with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in charge of the world's most important central bank.

The 2-year Treasury yield ticked down to 4.056% from 4.064% on Monday, and the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 4%, finishing below $80 per barrel for the first time since March 4.

"Tomorrow," writes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "we get to hear Kevin Warsh's first comments as the new head of the Federal Reserve, when the FOMC releases its rate decision. If he's perceived as more dovish than expected, it should be bullish for stocks. If he's hawkish, it could bring volatility."

As Navellier notes and CME FedWatch confirms, there's almost zero chance the Fed cuts interest rates tomorrow. "Perhaps more interesting," he adds, "will be what he wants to do with the Fed's balance sheet."

Read more: Dow Notches New High as Tech Stocks Drop: Stock Market Today

Stock futures are mixed ahead of today's Fed announcement

Stock futures are signaling a mixed open ahead of this afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.

At last check, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are marginally lower, while premarket gains in several tech stocks have futures on the S&P 500 trading up 0.2% and futures on the Nasdaq-100 trading 0.6% higher.

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, June 17.

"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace," the FOMC wrote in its April policy statement. "Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices."

The committee went on to say that "developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook."

As such, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

This time around, Deutsche Bank economists expect the June FOMC statement to reflect improvements in the labor market and remove any bias toward easing, reflecting Chair Warsh's disapproval of forward guidance.

"While it is possible that Warsh could look to scrap the guidance language entirely, given his prior criticisms of the Fed's over-reliance on forward guidance, we expect change to come more incrementally, given that a rising chorus of the Committee wishes to signal the potential for monetary tightening amidst ongoing elevated inflation concerns," they note.

They anticipate the removal of the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" language, with this more neutral revision: "In considering any adjustments to the level of the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

- Karee Venema

May retail sales came in higher than expected

Retail sales came in higher than expected in May. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales rose 0.9% month over month, much higher than economists' estimate for a 0.6% increase.

It was also an improvement over April's retail sales, which were downwardly revised to +0.4% from the initial reading of +0.5%.

"Nominal retail sales rose again in May despite the weakness in consumer sentiment and higher energy prices," says Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. "The resiliency is a function of a labor market that remains structurally tight, equity markets that continue to hit new highs (generating a wealth effect), a very strong tax refund season, and household cash levels as a share of total assets that are exceptionally high."

But de Chazal adds that consumers view the war in Iran as temporary, which has not impacted demand. "However, should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed much longer, the current memorandum of understanding not be agreed upon, or indeed the conflict escalate into other major global choke points, prices would rise further and more tangible demand destruction would be likely."

- Karee Venema

How well do you know the Fed?

Fed meetings have become key events as central bank officials try to balance high inflation and labor market hiccups against the White House's desire for lower interest rates.

But how well do you know the Fed?

With the next Fed meeting on deck, we decided to test your basic knowledge of the Federal Reserve with a quick quiz.

Master Your Fed Knowledge: Take Our Quick Federal Reserve Quiz

What time does Kevin Warsh speak today?

Fed Chair Warsh will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, June 17.

How Warsh frames answers to key market questions surrounding inflation, AI and the future path of interest rates during his press conference is more important than today's policy statement, says Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist, Americas at BlackRock.

"Investors will be listening closely for his views on whether policymakers should look through tariff and energy-related inflation, how AI may affect inflation and whether he believes the neutral rate has moved higher," she explains.

Chaudhuri also says that the market will be watching for any comments on the Federal Reserve's future path for projections and guidance. "Warsh has previously been critical of the Summary of Economic Projections, making any comments on the future of the dot plot particularly noteworthy," she says. "In the past, he shared that he believed dot plots provide a false sense of precision, cause the bank to focus more on forecasts than reaction, and that too much forward guidance can become a policy tool of itself."

- Karee Venema

Stocks edge higher, bond yields barely budge ahead of Fed statement

Stocks are trading cautiously higher ahead of the June Fed statement, due out at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in the lead, up 0.4% on strength in financial giant Goldman Sachs (GS, +2.6%) and industrial stock Caterpillar (CAT, +2.5%). The broader S&P 500 is 0.03% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has edged up 0.08%.

Bond yields have failed to make any major moves, as well. The yield on the 2-year Treasury is up 2.1 basis points at 4.068%, while the 10-year Treasury yield flat at 4.428%.

Any post-Fed market volatility is a "buying opportunity," says Main Street Research's CIO

The June Fed meeting is the most important in recent memory, says James Demmert, chief investment officer, Main Street Research. "Investors will now have to get used to the new Fed Chair's communication style, which is an adjustment period for markets."

Demmert doesn't expect the FOMC to make any changes to the federal funds rate this time around, but considering lower oil prices could spur economic activity, he thinks Chair Warsh could "mention accelerating economic growth and the potential for higher rates going forward, even with the political pressure he is facing to cut rates."

The CIO adds that any Fed-induced market volatility represents "a buying opportunity" for investors as he believes "market fundamentals remain in place."

- Karee Venema

The Fed decision is in

The Fed decision is in. As expected, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Unlike recent decisions, the vote was unanimous.

- David Payne

The June FOMC statement is much more terse than usual

The June FOMC statement looks very different than the ones we've become accustomed to. Given how barebones it is, there's really not much we can read into it — though this should be expected, given that Warsh is reported to be in favor of less communication.

The FOMC did release the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot, despite some indication that Warsh wants to get rid of it. Both show an expected gradual decline in the fed funds rate over the next several years.

The press conference should be interesting.

- David Payne

Where can I watch Fed Chair Warsh's press conference?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

The path to avoid rate hikes is narrow, says Kay Haigh of Goldman Sachs

"Today's meeting confirms that the Fed's recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices," says Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Haigh adds that despite the recent drop in oil prices, the dot plot shows that half of the committee members expect rate hikes as soon as this year.

This, he notes, reflects strong labor market and inflation data. "Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data," Haigh concludes.

- Karee Venema

Stocks turn lower after Fed announcement

The main equity indexes have turned lower after the release of the Fed statement. At last check, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.09% at 51,954, the S&P 500 was off 0.4% at 7,480, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.6% lower at 26,230.

Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was up 10.8 basis points to 4.155% and the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.1 basis points higher at 4.469%.

Warsh promises price stability

"This committee will deliver price stability," Kevin Warsh emphatically announced in the opening statement of his first press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve.

He noted that inflation has been running well above the Fed's 2% goal for five years now, something that American consumers know well.

Whether Warsh can bring inflation back to a tolerably low level, and what it would take to do that, are the real questions.

- Jim Patterson

Warsh announces new Fed task forces

Warsh started his first press conference with a sweeping announcement of new task forces he has formed at the Fed to reconsider a range of the central bank's operations.

One will reexamine how much the Fed communicates about its future monetary policy decisions, suggesting that the Warsh Fed may be less forthcoming about signaling potential changes to interest rates and other monetary policy decisions.

Markets may have to get used to receiving less guidance from Warsh than they got from his predecessor.

- Jim Patterson

Warsh says the Fed is no longer promising forward guidance

"Inflation is a choice" for central bankers, Warsh said: A mantra he has harped on before. In other words, he believes that monetary policy is the main driver for inflation, not economic events. And by that logic, he indicated, the Fed can and will get inflation under control.

He declined to say how specifically it will do that, and whether he would contemplate raising interest rates soon, saying that under him, the Fed is dropping "forward guidance" about future rate decisions.

He noted that some of his colleagues on the FOMC have penciled in interest rate increases for later this year, but said those pencils come with erasers. In other words, nothing has been decided about rates later this year.

- David Payne

Warsh talks future press conferences

When asked whether he will continue with post-meeting press conferences, Chair Warsh said that pressers can be a useful way to communicate.

Citing his mentor George Schultz, Warsh said that when you have a press conference, you better have something important to say. Walsh noted that today he had something to say, about price stability and some changes that he's making to the Federal Reserve.

While Warsh did not commit to specific future press conferences, he did say that more changes are to come and those changes will be worthy of a press conference.

- Karee Venema

Warsh says the Fed will rely on different data sources, but did not give specifics

Warsh doesn't want markets to react too closely to economic data just because they assume those data releases will influence the Fed in one way or another. And he seems frustrated that the Fed relies heavily on government statistics that take time to collect and go through multiple revisions.

He intimated that under him, the Fed will be studying other data sources, and methods for analyzing economic data, to get a better real-time read on how the economy is doing. But he did not go into any details about what those new sources or methods could be, leaving markets to guess for now on what Chair Warsh will be looking at as he makes monetary decisions.

- Jim Patterson

Warsh is not concerned about the market's reaction to the Fed's limiting of communication

"This is a lot of change for financial markets to digest," Warsh said, referring to his plan to limit how much the Fed will be communicating about its future monetary moves. But he also indicated he's not concerned about how markets react to that change.

The main purpose of his inaugural press conference seems to be to drive home the point that he won't be foreshadowing any changes in Fed policy to the media, and that investors will have to get by without such hints.

"I don't have anything for you" was a recurring theme of his answers to questions from the assembled financial media. His message seems to be "Trust us to bring inflation down, but don't expect us to explain how we'll do that before we're ready to do it."

- Jim Patterson

Interest rates are having an "uneven" impact on the economy, says Warsh

A glimmer of a hint on how Warsh sees present interest rates: He said that they seem "restrictive" when it comes to the housing market, but not necessarily in other parts of the economy.

He referred to the present level of rates as "uneven" in terms of how rates are impacting the economy. That doesn't suggest he clearly favors either a rate hike or cut in the future. But considering that he was initially seen as a Fed chair who favored lower rates, the description of today's rates as having an "uneven" impact at least suggests he's not in a race to cut rates right now.

He did not indicate that today's rate level is holding the economy back and needs to be lowered.

- Jim Patterson

Fed may be waiting to see the impact the Iran deal has on oil prices

The dot plot shows that half of the committee members wanted to leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, while the other half thought rates would need to rise a little. Yet Warsh notes that no one in the meeting brought up increasing the federal funds rate this time around.

This may be because the FOMC wants to see what the impact of the Iran deal will be on oil prices.

- David Payne

"Trends matter more than data points," says Warsh

"Trends matter more than data points," Warsh said in wrapping up his remarks. Commenting on the recent trends in the labor market, he indicated optimism, including on the potential for artificial intelligence to boost worker productivity.

That seems to be an important part of his overall approach to monetary policy: The idea that new technology like AI can help lower inflation by enabling workers to do more, thus easing cost pressures for businesses and enabling them to curb price increases. But, in keeping with the theme of his earlier remarks, Warsh did not go into specifics about what that trend could mean for Fed interest rate decisions.

Investors should get used to hearing less from the new Fed chair, rather than more.

- Jim Patterson

Beat inflation: the savings accounts that actually work

Inflation recently hit 4.20%, and most savings accounts aren't keeping up. It means if you have a savings account earning less than inflation, you're losing money — and as the Fed didn't raise rates today, you're not likely to see an increase in your current account.

We're tracking the high-yield savings accounts and CDs that are actually beating the curve, see them here: Inflation Is at 4.2%: These Savings Accounts Are Outpacing It

Stocks close lower after June Fed meeting

Stocks were choppy in the lead-up to Wednesday afternoon's shortened policy statement from the Federal Reserve, but made a decisive turn lower after it was released.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined by 1% to 51,493, despite reaching another new all-time high on an intraday basis. The broad-based S&P 500 was down 1.2% at 7,420, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.3% at 26,021.

Market-based interest rates were up across the maturity spectrum, with the 2-year Treasury yield, widely watched as a gauge of short-term policy, rising to 4.216% from 4.047% on Tuesday.

CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of rate cuts and rate hikes based on 30-day fed funds futures prices, indicates the Warsh Fed could raise interest rates as soon as October.

Read more: Dow Falls 507 Points as Fed Chair Warsh Speaks of Price Stability: Stock Market Today

The bar for rate cuts is higher, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

While the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged came as little surprise to Wall Street, the statement and updated projections indicate a shift in the central bank's underlying policy framework, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel.

"Notably, the post-meeting statement was streamlined and sharpened in tone, emphasizing that inflation 'remains elevated' and explicitly highlighting the role of recent supply shocks — particularly in energy — in driving price pressures," he adds.

The FOMC statement also reinforced the diminishing urgency in lowering interest rates due to "solid" economic activity and a stable labor market. "Taken together, these adjustments mark a clear move away from the easing bias that defined earlier communication this year," Zureick explains.

The updated Summary of Economic Projections, which shows a split between holding rates steady and raising rates this year, underscores this shift, the economist says. "In addition, the Fed revised its macroeconomic assumptions, suggesting an environment with higher expected inflation, somewhat slower growth, and a still-resilient labor market."

With Chair Warsh reluctant to offer forward guidance, Zureick says the overall message from the June Fed meeting is that "the bar for rate cuts has moved higher, and investors will need to look further out on the horizon — particularly to 2027 and beyond — for clarity on the eventual path of policy normalization."

- Karee Venema

The April Fed meeting wrapped up on Wednesday, April 29, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

With spiking energy prices lifting inflation and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the end of his term, the central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged this time around.

But Wall Street kept a close eye on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) statement and Chair Powell's press conference to see how concerned the central bank is about the lasting impact of higher oil prices.

Powell's surprising decision to remain on the Fed's Board of Governors for the time being was also a major storyline that emerged from the meeting.

The Kiplinger team reported live on the April Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.

How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | How Inflation Affects Your Finances and How to Stay Ahead | War in the Middle East Spells Higher Inflation for U.S. Consumers

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from April 28 through April 29, marks the third gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.

Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

April 28 to 29

June 16 to 17

July 28 to 29

September 15 to 16

October 27 to 28

December 8 to 9

The next Fed meeting will be Powell's last

On Friday, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dropped its investigation into Jerome Powell. The probe, launched in mid-January, threatened a criminal indictment related to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June about a multi-year project to renovate historic buildings.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Caroline) said he would not vote to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair as long as the investigation continued, calling it "a bedrock principle of Fed independence."

Indeed, President Donald Trump has relentlessly criticized Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates, leaving many to speculate that the DOJ's investigation was a means of strong-arming the central bank.

But on Friday, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro posted on X that she has directed her office to close its investigation of Powell and the Fed — clearing the way for Tillis to help move Warsh to a full Senate vote.

That vote is likely to come soon. Indeed, the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Warsh's nomination this Wednesday, April 29, at 10 am Eastern Standard Time.

- Karee Venema

When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up on May 15, 2026.

In January, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Chair Powell once his term is up. "Warsh was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains," writes Kiplinger investing editor David Dittman. "Markets see Warsh as a source of stability should Trump continue to pressure the central bank. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011."

With Warsh likely to be approved by the Senate, this makes the April Fed meeting the last for Jerome Powell as Fed chair.

Powell's term on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve runs through January 31, 2028. He has yet to confirm whether he will step down as Fed governor once his term as chair is up, as is customary. Rather, at the March Fed meeting, Powell said that he has "no intention of leaving the Board until the investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality,"

- Karee Venema

The policy backdrop is complicated right now

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the next Fed meeting. Not only is it Powell's last as Fed chair, but central bankers are trying to balance a complicated policy backdrop.

"On one hand, inflation has not yet fully returned to target, and the renewed rise in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict adds another layer of uncertainty," says Yulia Alekseeva, Head of Fixed Income at MissionSquare. "On the other hand, growth appears to be moderating, and there are early signs that the labor market may be losing some momentum beneath still-resilient headline data."

So policymakers are navigating a "narrow path," she explains — one where easing too soon could accelerate inflation, but "tightening preemptively" could create unnecessary headwinds for the economy.

"As a result, this meeting is less about whether the next move is a cut or a hike in the near term, and more about avoiding the wrong move altogether while preserving optionality," Alekseeva concludes.

- Karee Venema

Stocks are slightly lower to start Fed week

The main equity indexes are down slightly to start the week as market participants look ahead to Wednesday's policy announcement from the Fed and a busy stretch of Big Tech earnings.

After notching new all-time closing highs on Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and broader S&P 500 are down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is off -0.1%.

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Oil prices, meanwhile, were last seen higher, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures up 1.9% to $96.16 per barrel. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump canceled plans for in-person negotiations in Pakistan between the U.S. and Iran.

- Karee Venema

Who gets to vote at the April Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell*

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson

Fed Governor Michael Barr

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Fed Governor Stephen Miran**

Fed Governor Christopher Waller

New York Fed President John Williams

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

* Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up on May 15, 2026

** Stephen Miran's term as Fed governor was up on January 31, 2026, but he will continue to serve in the role until a successor is approved

- Karee Venema

March CPI came in hot as energy prices spiked

The ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran has caused oil prices to spike to their highest level in four years and gas prices to soar above $4.00 per gallon, putting a quick halt to the decelerating inflation trend we've seen in recent years.

This was evidenced in the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a big boost to headline inflation.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 0.9% from February to March, and was 3.3% higher year over year. This marked the highest annual increase since May 2024.

The results came in much higher than February's figures of 0.3% and 2.4%, and exceeded economists' estimates for a 0.8% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual rise.

Rising energy costs were the main reason behind the hot headline number. "The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2-percent increase in the index for gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all items increase," explained the BLS.

"This may be the best headline inflation number we see for a while as it may only partially capture the full force of the Iran conflict, which sent U.S. crude and U.S. gas up 70% at peak," said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Global Co-CIO of Multi-Asset Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "We believe the Fed will look through the energy-driven noise so long as these factors hold. The Fed has room to be patient, and every reason to do so."

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% from February to March, matching economists' expectations. Year over year, core inflation came in at a slower-than-expected 2.6%.

- Karee Venema

Read more: March CPI Report: Iran War Lifts Inflation to a 2-Year High

The labor market remains steady

Jobs reports have been volatile this year, but the overall picture of the labor market is one that's healthy but slowing.

In March, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 178,000, nullifying the downwardly revised decline of 133,000 jobs from February. In January, the U.S. added 126,000 new jobs.

"Gains were widespread in March. Private employment rose an even stronger 186,000," writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in his Kiplinger jobs outlook. "Health care and social assistance was back to its usual strong hiring, adding 90,000. Leisure and hospitality added 44,000. Other hires included 26,000 in construction, 20,000 delivery drivers, 15,000 in durable goods manufacturing and 10,000 in retail."

The unemployment rate came in at 4.3% in March.

"The robust March jobs report should dissipate concerns at the Federal Reserve that the economy might be weakening," says Payne. "That means that rate cuts are off the table for the moment, at least until a new Fed chair takes over, possibly in May."

- Karee Venema

What Kiplinger economist David Payne is watching for in this week's Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its April 29 policy meeting. Inflation is a current worry, and the uncertainty of how long oil shipping will continue to be interrupted in the Persian Gulf will prevent the Fed from moving rates in either direction.

This meeting is also Powell’s last as chair, as his term ends on May 15, and the next Fed meeting is June 17. Kevin Warsh appears likely to be confirmed as the new chair by the Senate, as Sen. Tillis is dropping his opposition now that the Department of Justice suspended its criminal investigation of Powell.

The press conference on Wednesday is likely to focus on whether Powell will stay on as an at-large governor, though Powell will deflect all such questions, as usual. Powell does not have to leave the board entirely, as his term as a governor ends much later, on January 31, 2028.

It would be unusual for a former Fed chair to stay on as a governor, but not unprecedented. Martin Eccles stayed on for three more years after his chairmanship ended in 1948. Powell will likely want to stay on the board for a time to ensure that the investigation is truly over, as the Department of Justice said it reserved the right to restart it.

Powell staying on the board would mean that Trump could not immediately appoint his replacement, and would provide a counterweight to Chair Warsh's initiatives if Powell chose to do so.

- David Payne

Stocks close mixed Monday

Stocks were mixed to start a major week for earnings and interest rates. "Despite bouts of volatility," E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin observes, "for most of this month the showdown between geopolitical uncertainty and enthusiasm over AI-driven earnings growth has been a one-sided battle."

Indeed, the S&P 500 was up 9.8% from the end of March through Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial average 6.2% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 15%.

"This week could show whether the bulls' enthusiasm has been misplaced," Larkin notes. "If megacap tech leaders beat expectations, the market may continue to treat high oil prices and political tensions as more of a speed bump than a roadblock."

At the closing bell, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.1% to 7,173, another new all-time closing high, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had risen 0.2% to 24,887, also another new all-time closing high. But the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1% to 49,167.

- David Dittman

Read more: Nasdaq Notches Another New All-Time High: Stock Market Today

Iran will keep the Fed in "wait and see" mode, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

The Fed is likely to continue its "wait and see" approach to interest rates that we saw to start 2026, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel. "While the Fed’s two key economic variables — labor market data and inflation — remain relatively unchanged from last month, the ongoing conflict with Iran makes forecasting both particularly difficult."

Zureick believes the FOMC will acknowledge that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated. "While this would imply a lower likelihood of future rate cuts this year, economic research would also suggest higher prices at the pump may act to suppress future economic growth," he explains, adding that the Fed "will likely wait for a more decisive signal before taking any policy action."

Meanwhile, the expected confirmation of Warsh as the new Fed chair "clears a major uncertainty for investors looking for clues about future policy direction," the economist says. "If confirmed, Kevin Warsh will take over as the new Federal Reserve Chair on May 15. Most economists do not expect meaningful changes to policy under new leadership."

There will be no update of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections or “SEP” at the April meeting, which is often a point of emphasis for investors as it offers clues about the Fed’s assessment of the economy and predictions of future policy rates."

– Karee Venema

About the Fed's preferred inflation gauge

There's another big event on this week's economic calendar that appears to have its own leitmotif of "finality." That's the release on Thursday morning of Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for March.

For now, the Fed prefers PCE over CPI as an inflation gauge basically because it's a broader and more flexible instrument for measuring real-time change. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a fixed basket of goods.

As Kevin Warsh sees it, neither PCE nor CPI is a sufficient barometer of price stability. Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, said during his confirmation hearing last week that his preferred instruments are "trimmed averages" that "take out all of the tail risks, all of the one-off items" to measure the "generalized change in prices."

A "trimmed-mean" average excludes a set percentage of the largest and smallest values in a dataset prior to calculation. Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner identifies "one clear benefit" to using them: "Inflation is measured imprecisely, so excluding some of the 'noise' of large moves in smaller categories (which do not necessarily have to be food or energy categories) can provide a clearer picture of the trend."

At the same time, as Weidner explains, "Fundamental to this is the premise that the inflation prints out in the tails are in fact noise and thus not informative about the trend."

Indeed, a May 2008 Dallas Fed staff paper (pdf) found that trimmed-mean averages are "more useful in low inflation environments, when the underlying signal is weak relative to the noise in the data." But they may not be able to capture changes in the inflation regime information in the tails may help identify.

– David Dittman

Should he stay or should he go now?

Fans of history and irony will note that the last Fed chair to linger on the Federal Reserve Board after their term in the top spot expired has their name on the building causing so much controversy up and down the Washington D.C.-Wall Street corridor these days.

According to FederalReserveHistory.org, Marriner S. Eccles served as Fed chair from November 15, 1934, through his resignation on January 31, 1948. Eccles stuck around on the board, initially at President Harry Truman's request, until July 14, 1951.

The Justice Department has ended its investigation of Jerome Powell and the Fed over cost overruns on a project to renovate the central bank's historic headquarters at 2051 Constitution Avenue NW, the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building.

Powell said during his press conference following the March Fed meeting that he'd depart when the Justice Department investigation is "well and truly over, with transparency and finality." He also said he'd do “what I think is best for the institution and the people we serve.”

As Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal reports, there is some question whether an ongoing investigation by the Fed's inspector general will provide the sitting Fed chair the comfort he needs to vacate the premises entirely.

"People who know Powell say that, after nearly 14 years at the Fed including eight as chair, he is more than eager to return to private life," Timiraos writes. "But agreeing to leave at a moment when the administration has been trying to push him out could, at least implicitly, validate the pressure campaign Powell has spent the past year avoiding."

Indeed, as Timiraos notes, "Each step the administration has taken in recent months has made the simple act of departing harder, not easier."

– David Dittman

Stocks are down on the first day of the April Fed meeting

Not even blue-chip strength could lift the oldest of the three main U.S. equity indexes into the green on Tuesday, and technology dragged on the relative newcomers amid questions about the durability of the market's major trend. A big earnings season is unfolding, the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz is unresolved and the April Fed meeting is underway.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% at 49,136, the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.5% to 7,138 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.9% to 24,663.

That's despite good fundamentals. "We have a quarter of S&P 500 companies' reports in so far," Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown observes about the earnings calendar. And we're seeing the sixth consecutive earnings season of double-digit profit growth. "It's not accounting tricks. Revenue is higher for all 11 sectors."

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell has convened his final FOMC meeting as Fed chair and will host his final press conference as the leader of the world's most important central bank on Wednesday.

– David Dittman

Read more: Nasdaq Nosedives as OpenAI Is Off Target: Stock Market Today

Does the Bank of Japan's "hawkish hold" signal a trend?

The policy board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) voted 6-3 to hold its benchmark steady at 0.75% on Tuesday. The BOJ was the first of five Group of Seven central banks to conclude its meeting this week, a rare convergence where monetary policy for about half of global GDP is up for discussion.

Based on the BOJ's discussion, it's safe to say all five will address the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran, the chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz, interest rates and inflation.

"Japan is walking a stagflationary tightrope amid elevated energy prices," according to Yuxuan Tang, Asia head of rates and forex strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, with the voting split suggesting "a high probability of a hike as soon as June."

As the BOJ noted in a statement announcing its decision, "It is necessary to pay particular attention to the impact of the future course of the situation in the Middle East on financial and foreign exchange markets on Japan's economic activity and prices."

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will conclude its meeting on Wednesday morning and announce its decision at 9:45 am Eastern Standard Time. The BOC will also release its quarterly monetary policy statement.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank (representing France, Germany and Italy) will make their respective announcements at 7 am and 8: 45 am on Thursday.

Investors, traders and speculators basically expect all five central banks to leave their respective policy benchmarks unchanged. It's "wait and see" all over the world right now.

Markets will focus on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for one, has to say about the trajectory of the federal funds rate, for example, based on incoming economic data.

– David Dittman

Stocks signal a slightly higher open on Fed Day

The main equity indexes are signaling a slightly higher start this morning as market participants await this afternoon's policy statement from the Federal Reserve and a handful of Big Tech earnings due after the close.

At last check, futures on the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 were fractionally higher, while futures on the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 were up 0.3%.

Energy prices were higher, too, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures up 3.4% at $103.31 per barrel.

- Karee Venema

Big Tech earnings in focus this week, too

In addition to the Fed meeting, Wall Street will see earnings results from several Big Tech companies this week.

After tonight's close, four members of the Magnificent 7 — Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) — will report, while Apple (AAPL) will disclose its March quarter results Thursday evening.

"Tech investors have taken comfort in rising earnings estimates that have toned down talk of a bubble by keeping P/E's in check even as stock prices climbed," says Dennis Follmer, chief investment officer at Montis Financial, "but any disappointing news from a Mag 7 company on Wednesday might just remind investors that there are still serious threats to the rosy future they have priced in."

And for investors, Follmer says the main question from this week's onslaught of Big Tech earnings is whether the AI train can keep the wind at the stock market's back. " Following a first quarter where the Mag 7 trailed the broader market, each of the four Mag 7 members reporting Wednesday are up approximately 20% or more since the March 30 lows," he notes.

The reactions to their earnings reports are "incredibly important to the broader market," Follmer adds.

Read more: Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week (April 27-May 1)

- Karee Venema

Where have all the Fed speakers been?

The Fed-speak has been nonexistent over the past week or so. That's by design. From Saturday, April 18, through Thursday, April 30, participants in the FOMC meeting have been bound by a Federal Reserve policy that limits how much they can discuss the economy and interest rates.

These two-week "blackout periods" begin the second Saturday that falls 10 days before the next FOMC meeting and end the Thursday that follows the meeting. The Fed's blackout period was an unofficial practice that began in the 1980s. It was formalized in 2011 and reaffirmed in January 2025.

Fed-watchers see the policy as a measure against corruption and the potential for information leaks to distort markets. It also provides cover for open discussion during the Fed's most intense periods of policy-making.

Here is a schedule for all blackout periods through January 2028.

- David Dittman

Consumers expect higher interest rates by year's end

The Conference Board on Tuesday released its Consumer Confidence Survey for April, which edged up to 92.8 from March's upwardly revised 92.2 reading.

"Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices," explained Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

Consumers' perception of the labor market and household income also improved, though expectations for business conditions declined.

And while survey respondents indicated they expect inflation to edge lower over the next 12 months, the outlook is still elevated. Additionally, nearly 50% of those surveyed believe interest rates will be higher a year from now.

This differs from market expectations. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in an 86% probability that the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% through year's end. Odds are for the next move to be a quarter-point rate cut, coming in 2027.

- Karee Venema

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, April 29.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated," the committee wrote in its March statement. "Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain."

As such, the FOMC voted to keep the federal fund rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

This time around, Deutsche Bank economists expect the April Fed statement to "remain largely unchanged from March. The intermeeting data continue to support the Fed's description of growth as 'solid,' job gains 'low' but unemployment 'little changed' and inflation 'somewhat elevated.'"

- Karee Venema

Kevin Warsh will proceed to a full Senate vote

Earlier today, the Senate Banking Committee voted along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chair to a full Senate vote.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said he would not vote to advance Warsh until a Department of Justice investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell was resolved. Following the DOJ's decision this past Friday to end the probe, Tillis confirmed that he was ready to vote yes.

Ahead of today's vote, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), a ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, said that advancing Warsh to a full vote in the Republican-controlled Senate "will bring the president one step closer to completing his illegal attempt to seize control of the Fed and to artificially juice the economy."

The full Senate vote is expected the week of May 11, with Powell's term as Fed chair ending on Friday, May 15.

- Karee Venema

Stocks fall, while oil prices and Treasury yields rise

With a little under an hour to go until the Fed releases its latest policy announcement, the main equity indexes are all in negative territory. At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 0.6%, the broader S&P 500 is down 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is 0.4% lower.

Among individual stocks selling, online trading platform Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is down more than 14% after its top- and bottom-line misses, while fintech firm SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is nearly 14% lower after its Q1 results.

Meanwhile, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures are trading up 7% at $106.91 per barrel after President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note is up 7 basis points at 3.914%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.8 basis points higher at 4.402%. (A basis point equals 0.01%.)

- Karee Venema

What time does Jerome Powell speak today?

Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, April 29.

Deutsche Bank economists believe Chair Powell will likely focus on the war in the Middle East and its impact on inflation and the economy. "With uncertainty still pervasive, we expect he will emphasize that officials are unsure of the precise fallout from the war on the economy and monetary policy. However, Powell could highlight that persistent price pressures become more likely the longer oil prices remain elevated."

The economists also anticipate that Powell will comment on how the labor market has held steady and that higher oil prices are critical to the path of inflation from here.

"Powell could also be quizzed on the potential effects of AI on the economy – a topic that dominated market attention prior to the events in the Middle East," the group adds.

They do not expect Powell to comment on Kevin Warsh's nomination or confirm whether he will stay on as Fed governor.

- Karee Venema

The Fed decision is in

The Federal Open Market Committee has released its April policy statement, choosing to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Here's what changed in the April FOMC statement

Changes to the FOMC's latest policy statement include the following:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. (Previously read: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.)

Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. (Previously read: Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.)

- Karee Venema

FOMC members were split on today's decision

Eight committee members voted in favor of today's statement, which was mostly boilerplate about how the Federal Reserve is committed to its goals, would act if events warrant and is paying close attention to all incoming data.

One committee member (Stephen Miran) wanted to lower interest rates and three (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan) wanted to go on record as being opposed to lowering rates at this time.

This shows the challenges that Kevin Warsh will have in trying to lower rates in the future.

Additionally, there was no update to the Fed's economic forecast at this meeting. An update will be published at the next meeting on June 17.

- David Payne

Where can I watch Fed Chair Powell's press conference?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

Prediction markets are split when it comes to Powell staying on as a Fed governor

Prediction markets are split on Powell staying on as a Fed governor in the short term. Kalshi bettors give Powell a 16% chance of stepping down before June, but Polymarket bettors give him 87% odds of leaving the Federal Reserve in May.

While his term as Fed chair is over on May 15, he has the option to stay on as Fed governor through early 2028.

- Karee Venema

Powell says he will stay on as Fed governor for now

"I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time, to be determined," Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced in a surprising addition to his normal opening statement about the economy and the direction of monetary policy.

He said explicitly that he will not leave the Fed's Board of Governors until the suspended investigation into him by the Justice Department is completely over. So for now, that means that President Trump will not have another vacancy to fill at the Fed.

- Jim Patterson

Powell says his reason for staying on

When asked whether he is taking a political stand by deciding to remain on the board as a voting member of the Fed Board of Governors, and preventing the White House from appointing a replacement who would presumably be in line with the president's views on monetary policy, Powell was adamant in rejecting that premise.

He said he will work with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, and emphasized that it's vital for the Fed to be free of political pressures.

- David Payne

Should the Fed still be signaling the potential for future rate cuts?

Turning to the outlook for future Fed interest rate decisions, Powell was asked whether it still makes sense for the Fed to indicate that it expects to cut rates at some point.

Several members of the FOMC voted to delete the language in its statement leaning toward a future rate cut, given that inflation has started to perk up again due to tariffs and rising energy prices.

Powell defended the decision to maintain the bias toward future easing, noting that most members of the committee voted to keep it. He said there is no pressing need to adjust how the Fed signals its future policy moves, given how uncertain the outlook for the blockade of the Persian Gulf's oil exports is right now.

- Jim Patterson

Should the Fed raise interest rates?

When asked by Michael McKee from Bloomberg about whether the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates because inflation is not coming down fast enough, Powell said the dissents were not a result of committee members supporting rate hikes.

Rather, the committee feels like it should remain neutral and doesn't need to rush to change interest rates right now.

- Karee Venema

Could high oil prices push core inflation up?

Could high oil prices push core inflation up? "We're just going to have to wait and see," Powell said.

He noted that inflation is "already kind of misbehaving," but it's too soon to know to what extent energy prices will seep into other costs, such as airfares.

"We're in a good place to wait and let things develop," he said. But the fact that he is even being asked about how much the standoff with Iran could contribute to inflation shows how unlikely it is that the Fed is going to be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.

- Jim Patterson

Powell says he won't be a shadow Fed chair

Jerome Powell is explicitly saying that he won't be a shadow Fed chair. He knows how hard it is to get the group to consensus, and he doesn't want to make it harder for Kevin Warsh.

Powell wants to feel like he's being constructive to the process, and respects the institution too much to try to throw in monkey wrenches.

He hopes that Warsh will do press conferences at every meeting, because otherwise, 18 committee members will be making their own statements.

- David Payne

"No one's calling for a rate hike"

"No one's calling for a hike" in interest rates right now, Powell said, when asked about the potential impacts of the Iran situation on inflation.

Gasoline prices are up sharply in the U.S., but other regions of the world are feeling much greater inflationary effects than the United States is. As an energy exporter, the American economy is somewhat insulated from the effects of the war and the loss of Middle East oil and gas exports. However, if the situation continues for an extended period, that could change.

- Jim Patterson

Consumer spending is the bigger risk to higher gas prices

Asked about the inflationary impacts of higher gas prices, Powell cautioned that the real risk could be to consumer spending.

When drivers spend more to fill their tanks, they have less discretionary income to spend on anything else. Spending on gas does not account for as big a share of household budgets as it used to, but when gas prices spike, it can still be a drag on both households' spending power.

Even if the actual financial hit is not that large, there can be a psychological effect that leads people to spend more carefully on other types of goods and services.

- Jim Patterson

Powell believes Fed independence will continue

When asked if Kevin Warsh will defend independence, Powell noted that is what the incoming Fed chair has said.

Throughout today's press conference, Powell has tried to avoid criticizing Trump directly, but has been blunt about the damage from legal assaults on the Fed. He is confident that Fed independence will continue. "Don't expect us to be perfect, but expect us to be politically unbiased."

- David Payne

The economy is "very resilient"

On how the economy is doing outside of uncomfortably high inflation, Powell called it "very resilient."

He did note that while unemployment is low, not a lot of new jobs are being created, and fewer people are quitting and creating openings for people who are unemployed and looking.

Those are concerns, but overall, he indicated the labor market is doing OK and the economy is growing. "Inflation is the thing we need to work on," he emphasized.

- Jim Patterson

Why is Fed independence so important?

When asked why Fed independence is so important, Powell said that the consequence of allowing elected politicians to control monetary policy is that they will always want low rates.

But lower rates would cause inflation over time, and markets would lose faith in low inflation.

You want monetary policy to focus on employment and inflation stability. The Federal Reserve works for the American people, not for a political party.

- David Payne

Despite consumer spending concerns, Americans are still spending

In his closing thoughts on the economy, Powell said that "people are still spending." The incoming data doesn't show a slowdown due to higher prices at the gas station.

He warned that that could change, though. Other parts of the world are suffering more, but that isn't having much effect on the U.S. yet, especially since trade is not a huge portion of America's economy.

And on that note, he closed the press conference, saying, for a change: "I won't see you next time."

- Jim Patterson

Markets will wait and see what Powell will do under Fed Chair Warsh

Stocks sagged ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate after President Donald Trump rejected a peace offer from Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz. Central banks around the world are still waiting to see how the war in the Middle East will impact inflation and thus their respective policies on interest rates.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 8-4 to keep the fed funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. "Inflation is elevated," the FOMC said in its policy statement, "in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices."

As for what comes next, the statement suggests the FOMC will build on its last move, a quarter-point cut in December: "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6% at 48,861, and the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.04% to 7,135. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied late to post a 0.04% gain to 24,673.

– David Dittman

Read more: Markets Are Mixed Amid Fed Uncertainty: Stock Market Today

April Fed meeting ends with uncertainty, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

The Fed didn't shock anyone with today's decision to keep interest rates unchanged,  says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel. "The official statement left the door open to future rate cuts, citing the assessment of incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks as factors influencing future decision making." 

In a surprising move, though, four officials dissented against the Fed’s official decision, the first time this has happened since 1992, he says. Governor Miran favored a 25-basis-point rate cut. On the other hand, Governors Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented, citing disagreement with the "easing bias" in the Fed’s post-meeting statement, Zureick explains

The economist adds that while the door is open for Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair, Jerome Powell committed to staying on as a governor after his term as chair ends next month.

"Overall, there is disagreement amongst Fed officials regarding the future direction of policy rates," Zureick points out. "Adding to uncertainty, investors will need to become acquainted with new leadership next month. As the war in Iran drags on, concern over the impact on future inflation prints will likely intensify, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts."

- Karee Venema

In late January, President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when his term ends in May.

Warsh met with the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, April 21, marking the first step in his path to confirmation.

Fed independence was one topic that the Senate Banking Committee drilled Warsh on. His recent financial disclosures, which show roughly $100 million in assets he would need to divest to comply with ethics regulations, was another.

The Kiplinger team is reported on Warsh's path to confirmation, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what this means for the Fed, the economy and your money. Scroll for the updates.

Why the Next Fed Chair Decision May Be the Most Consequential in Decades | How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | Quiz: How Well Do You Know the Fed?

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.

Markets see Warsh as a source of stability should Trump continue to pressure the central bank. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011.

He was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.

He's currently a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

Warsh is widely viewed as a "hawk" on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.

At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.

Warsh said in mid-2025 that "the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential," adding "that doesn't mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does."

Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.

- David Dittman

Trump nominated Warsh in January

After months of speculation — and years of criticizing his last pick — President Donald Trump announced on January 30 that he would nominate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair when his term ends.

Trump had been reviewing several candidates before he made his official announcement.

"I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is 'central casting,' and he will never let you down."

- David Dittman

Why has Sen. Tillis vowed to block Warsh's nomination?

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis from North Carolina, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has vowed to block any Federal Reserve nomination until a Department of Justice probe into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved.

In January, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas and threatened a criminal indictment related to Chair Powell's congressional testimony last June about a multi-year project to renovate historic buildings.

In early April, Chief Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia blocked those subpoenas, writing that there is "abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will."

Boasberg also rejected a request from Jeanine Pirro, U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, to reconsider the ruling. Pirro has until early May to appeal.

"This is about a bedrock principle of Fed independence," Tillis told reporters in March. "The reason why I came out so strong so early is I believe that we, I, have no earthly idea what the market reaction would have been if suddenly the perception is that the Fed chair serves at the pleasure of the President, right?"

Tillis also called the administration's efforts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook "sophomoric." However, the senator said he is "already impressed" with Warsh.

- Karee Venema

When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is officially up on May 15, 2026.

After the March Fed meeting, Powell said that if his successor is not confirmed by the time his term ends, he will serve as Chair pro tem until his successor is confirmed. "That is what the law calls for, that's what we’ve done on several occasions — including involving me — and that’s what we’re going to do in this situation," he explained.

Powell's term on the Federal Reserve's board of governors does not expire until January 31, 2028. While he has not confirmed if he will stay on the board through early 2028, he said he will not leave until the Department of Justice's investigation into him is "well and truly over, with transparency and finality."

However, President Trump said earlier this month that he won't drop the probe into Powell and threatened to fire him if he doesn't resign once Warsh is confirmed.

- Karee Venema

Warsh promises Fed independence will remain intact

Kevin Warsh does not feel that the Federal Reserve's independence is at risk when President Trump repeatedly calls for the central bank to lower interest rates.

"I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials — presidents, senators, or members of the House — state their views on interest rates," Warsh wrote in his prepared opening statement for Tuesday's testimony, as reported by Politico. "Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners."

Warsh also states that he is committed to the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment "without excuse or equivocation, argument or anguish."

- Karee Venema

Warsh believes AI will lower inflation, but he faces an uphill battle convincing the bond market

Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh believes that strong productivity growth from the adoption of artificial intelligence will lower inflation as production costs decline (once the Iran war is resolved), allowing for lower short-term and long-term interest rates. Thus, he is basically a supply-sider.

However, we do not believe that Warsh will be able to convince the other members of the Fed's policy-making committee to agree to his views. Also, the bond market is not likely to agree, either, which means that even if Warsh is able to lower short-term rates through Fed action, he will not be able to convince the bond market.

Long-term interest rates such as the 10-year Treasury note have risen, not declined, since the Fed started cutting short-term interest rates in September 2024. Long-term rates are not likely to decline this year unless the Iran war causes the economy to suffer.

- David Payne

Where can I watch the Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing?

Kevin Warsh will begin his live testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee at 10 am Eastern Standard Time today, April 21.

Several media outlets will be live-streaming the hearing on their respective websites and YouTube channels, including CNBC. You can watch it here.

Stocks trade higher ahead of Warsh testimony

Stocks are trading higher Tuesday morning after President Donald Trump said he expects the U.S. to make "a great deal" with Iran.

At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is outperforming its peers, up 0.8% as UnitedHealth Group (UNH) jumps 9% on a beat-and-raise quarter. The broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are both up 0.2%.

- Karee Venema

Sen. Tim Scott calls the committee to order

Republican Sen. Tim Scott calls the Senate Banking Committee to order and thanks Kevin Warsh for meeting with them today.

He says that this is about "kitchen table issues" and that Americans want and should have confidence in our institutions.

"Monetary policy choices made at the Federal Reserve can affect Americans' ability to buy groceries, whether or not they can afford a home, how far their paycheck goes, especially at the end of the month," Scott adds.

- Karee Venema

Confirmation hearing begins

The confirmation hearing has begun for Kevin Warsh, with Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), chair of the banking panel, giving a speech saying Warsh should be confirmed, touching on themes of "affordability" for the people and the importance of the Fed.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) takes the floor next, saying, in contrast, that this hearing should not be happening due to "one economic failure after another" from the Trump administration and what she calls Trump's attempt to control the Fed.

- Alexandra Svokos

Sen. Warren mentions consumer sentiment, which just hit its lowest level on record

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) begins by saying President Trump has "racked up one economic failure after another," noting that consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level on record.

Warren is referring to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, which plunged plunged 11% from March to April to 47.6 — the lowest reading on record.

"Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values," explains Joanne Hsu, director of the monthly Surveys of Consumers. "Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices. Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy."

However, Hsu notes that nearly all responses for the preliminary reading were gathered before the temporary ceasefire was announced on April 7. "Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated," she says.

- Karee Venema

Sen. McCormick introduces 'my friend'

Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pennsylvania), is up next, giving a speech introducing his "friend" Warsh, calling him "the ideal candidate to lead the Fed at this crucial juncture." After a brief review of Warsh's career, McCormick goes back to a theme Scott discussed: Affordability for "everyday Americans."

He speaks of Warsh as someone who would shake up a "stagnant" Fed, doing something more than using what he calls outdated models for decision-making.

Here we go

Warsh has now been sworn in, and we can get into the actual testimony.

Warsh delivers his opening statement

Now sworn in, Warsh delivers his opening statement, which was distributed earlier this morning. As is typical of a confirmation hearing, he begins with personal remarks, talking about his wife and marriage, as well as his background growing up, to humanize himself before we get into questions and to review his professional background.

He then speaks clearly to the issue Warren discussed: The independence of the Fed. Here, he's walking a fine line between appeasing worried senators and the president at the same time.

"So let me be clear: Monetary policy independence is essential," he says, followed shortly thereafter by: "I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials — presidents, senators or members of the House — state their views on interest rates."

Later on in his opening statement, he speaks to what McCormick was referring to: An apparent inclination towards shaking up the Fed. He says: "Status quo practices and policies are especially harmful when the world is changing fast. If confirmed as chairman, I will seek to bring the experience of a one-time insider and the questioning spirit of an outsider. I will keep the Fed mindful of its limits, focused on its mission, and delivering on its mandate."

- Alexandra Svokos

The question and answer portion begins

Warsh has concluded his opening remarks, with the committee now moving on to the question-and-answer portion of the hearing.

Sen. Scott asks about affordability issues

Rep. Scott begins the Q&A portion of the hearing by asking Warsh about how the Fed will address affordability.

Warsh responds that there's no more pressing concern than affordability, noting that pandemic-era price spikes affected nearly all Americans. "Once you let inflation take hold in the economy, it's more expensive and harder to bring it down."

He calls this a "fatal policy error" and believes we need reforms to fix it. And while inflation is less severe than where it was a few years back, higher prices are still something Americans still managing.

- Karee Venema

Warren and Warsh spar over investments

Sen. Warren's opportunity for questioning almost immediately gets heated. She has asked Warsh about what he's invested in, including if his investments go towards anything nefarious. She presses Warsh that her questions are "yes or no," which he does not follow. The two speak over each other repeatedly, with Warsh saying he's been generally following ethics.

After that spar, Warren asks if Trump lost the 2020 election. Warsh responds by saying he's trying to keep politics out of monetary policy.

Warren then asks Warsh to name one disagreement he has with Trump's economic policy. He declines to answer, instead giving a cute response that he disagrees with Trump's assessment that he's "out of central casting."

- Alexandra Svokos

Warsh agrees with Sen. Warren on independence

Sen. Warren concludes her Q&A saying "we need a Fed chair that is independent. It is the only way we preserve the independence of the Federal Reserve."

Warsh: "I agree with you on independence Senator."

- Karee Venema

Sen. Rounds and Warsh talk divestments

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota) asks Warsh about working with ethics committees and divesting his financial assets. Warsh confirms that he is "going above and beyond" and has agreed to divest "virtually all of my financial assets" in order to "reestablish the credibility of the Fed."

Warsh says the majority of assets will be divested before he is confirmed, with the rest occurring within 90 days of confirmation.

- Karee Venema

Sen. Warren notes that Warsh is currently out of compliance

Sen. Warren notes that Warsh is currently out of compliance with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics certification, though Sen. Scott says "what has been clearly articulated" is that he intends to do what he must to be in compliance.

- Karee Venema

Tillis chooses to not ask questions, speaks to his vow to block the nomination

In his turn to ask questions, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), says he will not be asking questions but instead will speak to why he has vowed to block Warsh's nomination, despite supporting him as a nominee. He brought props (exciting!) - print-outs of quotes and slides.

First up, he speaks about the controversial building renovations, which Trump has attacked Powell on. Tillis says it's clear why this project went over-budget, due to the rising costs of materials and structural problems that came up during the work. "Unfortunate, but legitimate," he says of the costs going overbudget.

Then, he gets into the investigation into Powell, saying someone thought they would be "cute" by opening it. If not for this investigation, he says, Tillis would be able to move forward and this process would not be held up.

"We've got to end this investigation," Tillis says. "Let's get rid of this investigation so I can support your nomination."

- Alexandra Svokos

Sen. Kennedy asks about Trump and rate cuts

Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) continues the questioning on Warsh's divestment of his assets, saying if he refuses to sell them, both Congress and the ethics committees will know.

Kennedy also asks if politicians have the right to give their opinion on interest rates and monetary policy. The senator notes that the opinions of some politicians, namely the president, matter more than others.

While President Trump has made his feelings on interest rates loud and clear, Warsh says his credibility as Fed chair is the most important thing to him, the institution and the success of monetary policy. He adds that Trump has not asked him to commit to "any interest rate decision, period."

- Karee Venema

This is a pretty good hearing

I've watched a whole lot of C-SPAN in my time as a news and politics editor, and often hearings like this can be boring. Even in divisive times, that divisiveness can get, well, really, really boring. It falls into a pattern of Dems saying their talking point, Republicans saying theirs, the nominee barely talking, and we repeat that for a few hours.

This one, though, is slightly more interesting, with multiple storylines playing out at the same time. You've got the cross-aisle divisiveness, as usual, but also some real, thorough conversation about the economy (particularly between Warsh and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada)). Then you've got the debate over if Warsh can be independent. He says he can and will, but, some senators have pointed out, the president has been making the case that he can't and won't. Warsh, meanwhile, is walking this fine line of trying to ascertain his independence while trying not to tick off the president.

You've got a Republican, Tillis, on track to block this nomination due to political problems outside of the scope of this room, which is just an interesting plot twist, and you've got Warsh saying he respects the mandate of the Fed while also saying he wants to shake things up, like by getting new inflation data to make decisions differently.

And what we're seeing in Warsh is a slight contrast to what we see in Powell. Powell has developed a masterful ability to turn down questions and give quick, clipped responses that don't give the asker much to work with. Of course, a confirmation hearing is different from a press conference, but we're seeing some inclination to fight back from Warsh, rather than do a version of pleading the fifth.

Time is flying by, and we're actually getting some interesting conversations going on.

- Alexandra Svokos

Sen. Hagerty asks about Warsh's prior Fed experience

Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tennessee) asks Warsh about his prior Fed experience and how it will shape his time as Fed chair. Warsh says his experience at the Federal Reserve and understanding of the people will allow him to hit the ground running and give him a leg up.

He adds there's a short window to bring inflation down to where it should be. And because AI is so consequential and "is quickly becoming something like escape velocity," it's important to revisit models to see what this new technology means for the Fed's dual mandates — price stability and maximum employment.

- Karee Venema

Should digital assets be included in our financial industry?

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming) asks Warsh a "quick yes or no" on whether digital assets should be incorporated into our financial industry to provide Americans with "new investment opportunities."

Warsh responds that they already are.

- Karee Venema

Sen. Andy Kim revisits the topic of affordability

In a heated exchange with Warsh, Sen. Andy Kim (D-New Jersey) brings up the topic of affordability, asking the Fed chair nominee if he agrees that Americans are struggling to pay their bills.

Warsh demurs, saying it's not the role of the central bank to second-guess what folks are feeling and seeing in their own lives. However, he says the Fed has some responsibility for that and the "legacy of inflation" from recent years is the "biggest economic policy error in 40 or 50 years."

He admits that inflation is "less problematic than it was a few years ago," but would not admit that affordability remains an issue.

- Karee Venema

Warsh calls inflation a "regressive tax"

Answering to Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska), Warsh calls inflation "the most regressive tax that anyone in Washington could come up with," saying it does "the most harm to the least well-off among us."

Ricketts asks Warsh if inflation comes from lofty federal spending, to which the Fed chair nominee agrees. He adds that printing too much money also accelerates inflation.

- Karee Venema

How will AI impact Warsh's outlook for interest rates?

Near the end of her time, Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Delaware) asks Warsh how much of his view on interest rates depends on production gains from AI.

Warsh says it has two elements. One is the increase in capital expenditures to build data centers, which will boost demand. The other is on the supply side of the economy, with the increase in potential output, which could be considerably bigger — we just don't know at this point.

He adds that the Federal Reserve needs to do a lot of work to prepare for this productivity wave.

- Karee Venema

Warsh answers questions about Lisa Cook

Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Maryland) asked Warsh if he would plan to stand by and defend the tenure of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who Trump tried to fire. In response, Warsh essentially sidestepped, saying, "If I stand for anything, it's [that] the Fed should stay in its lane. As I understand that matter, it's pending before the United States Supreme Court. I think it's inappropriate for me to weigh in on that, especially because, in the event that I am confirmed, I could be party to that matter."

Alsobrooks disagreed, saying, "This is your future colleague, who is confirmed by both this committee and this Senate to serve her country. Chairman Powell has defended her tenure, and your answer to this is you will not defend her, is that correct?"

Warsh said no, he is simply standing by to hear what the Supreme Court says. Alsobrooks then asked about the Powell investigation, to which Warsh again said he will abide by the judgment of the courts.

- Alexandra Svokos

The hearing has concluded

The verbal portion of Warsh's testimony to this committee has now been adjourned. The senators have the opportunity to ask questions in writing after this, but for now, our fun is done.

Warsh stands and shake hands as he leaves the room.

Next steps for Warsh

Kevin Warsh will now answer written questions from the Senate Banking Committee, with his responses due by April 23.

In order to move to a full Senate vote, Warsh will need approval from the majority of the committee, which is made up of 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats. If Tillis refuses to advance Warsh, the vote will be 12-12, meaning his nomination for Fed chair will fail to move forward.

- Karee Venema

Is Kevin Warsh right about Fed independence?

Of course Kevin Warsh said interesting things during his introductory hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. He also avoided saying things off script for the existing drama.

That's fair to expect of a nominee "from central casting," as President Donald Trump described his choice to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

There's substance, too, even amid – maybe even augmented by – D.C. theatrics. Take this issue of Fed independence.

The way Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) frames it, once a Justice Department investigation of cost overruns for a project to renovate the central bank's historic buildings is resolved, it's basically no longer an issue.

As Politico reports, resolution could include the Justice Department referring the matter to a congressional committee.

Tillis, who also underscored how critical it is for a chair to build consensus inside the central bank, is a "yes" on the merits. If the DOJ agrees to let Congress take over the renovation investigation, it's Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in time for the June FOMC meeting.

As Warsh himself noted (an aside it was, really), what the president is doing right now in public is what presidents have always done in private.

Way back in the day, in fact, when he was worried about funding both the Great Society at home and the war in Vietnam, down at his ranch in Texas Lyndon Johnson literally assaulted William McChesney Martin about interest rates.

LBJ wasn't asking Martin to raise them. He wasn't the first president to try to impose his will on a central banker. And plenty between him and Trump did the same.

At the same time, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) sees "independence" along another line. Warren would like to know how Warsh will dispose of assets on his personal balance sheet, as agreed with federal ethics officials.

Warren is a "no" no matter what. But perhaps her constituents and other Americans would like to know to whom their top central banker is beholden, if not just their president. Tillis is comfortable with Warsh's existing agreement with ethics officials.

Meanwhile, the nominee represents a real agent of "regime change" (that line kills these days, in almost any context) for the central bank, maybe even because he was inside when a lot of the things he now wants to undo were being done.

Indeed, reducing the Fed's balance sheet and re-centering the federal funds rate as the primary tool of monetary policy is kind of a big shift, actually, and it'll leave a mark on the bond market if/when it happens.

Warsh would change the way the Fed talks about monetary policy, too, including making rate and growth forecasts that in his conception only inhibit free decision-making from FOMC meeting to FOMC meeting.

Things are different in this era of celebrity Fed chairs, ushered in by Bob Woodward when he wrote about "The Maestro" Alan Greenspan at the end of the 20th century.

Still, it's hard to find a more fraught confirmation process.

We're going to keep following it, and we're going to look at things like the general public's faith in the Fed, whether Warsh is the chair to restore it and what his ideas mean for inflation and jobs.

– David Dittman

Why Warsh would disrupt the Fed's dot plots

Markets have grown accustomed to celebrity Fed chairs and the "transparency" they seem to support.

They and their fellow members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors are all over the place these days speaking in support of things like their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

President Donald Trump takes it to another level when he says Kevin Warsh, his nominee to replace Jerome Powell, is "from central casting."

The nominee himself seems to favor a lower profile, if perhaps only from a policy perspective.

Indeed, as Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti writes, "Consistent with his prior comments, Warsh was highly critical of Fed communications, especially forward guidance."

And it's mostly about interest rates and the dot plot.

“The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be," Warsh said of the SEP during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. "Well, the Fed’s human. And then they hold on to those forecasts longer than they should.”

Warsh alludes to a very human frailty known as "confirmation bias": the tendency we have to focus on information that supports our current view and exclude information that contradicts it.

“If the Fed were to wait until it gets into a meeting before making a decision," Warsh believes, "incremental deliberation can keep the central bank from compounding its errors."

The dot-plots, as Warsh sees them, promise transparency but, ultimately, undermine credibility. "I think these are big changes that are needed," the nominee told the committee, "and if confirmed, I look forward to doing it.”

As Luzzetti notes, Warsh called for “regime change” in Fed communications. "That said," the economist adds, "he did not propose specific changes to these communication tools or practices." Nor did Warsh say whether he will or will not continue with post-FOMC-meeting press conferences.

“If you ask me my true personal opinion right now," Warsh said, "Fed chairs and other central bankers around the FOMC, they speak quite frequently. I would say this: I think truth seeking is more important than repetition. If one has a press conference, one wants to deliver some important news.”

– David Dittman

The path is clear for Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell

In a post on X shortly after 10 am Eastern Standard Time, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said she has directed her office to close its investigation of Jerome Powell and the Fed for cost overruns on a project to renovate its historic buildings in Washington D.C.

According to Pirro, "The Inspector General for the Federal Reserve has been asked to scrutinize the building costs overruns – in the billions of dollars – that have been borne by taxpayers."

As Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal notes, "Powell already asked the Fed’s inspector general to review the building project in July, and that work is ongoing. The IG published findings of an earlier audit of the renovations in 2021."

Nevertheless, Pirro's move appears to clear the way for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) to vote "yes" on President Donald Trump's nominee to replace Powell as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

"You have extraordinary credentials," Tillis said to Warsh during his questioning of the nominee on Tuesday. "They’re impeccable. Let’s get rid of this investigation, so I can support your confirmation."

– David Dittman

The Senate Banking Committee votes to move Kevin Warsh's nomination to a full Senate vote

Earlier today, the Senate Banking Committee voted along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chair to a full Senate vote.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said he would not vote to advance Warsh until a Department of Justice investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell was resolved. Following the DOJ's decision this past Friday to end the probe, Tillis confirmed that he was ready to vote yes.

Ahead of today's vote, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), a ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, said that advancing Warsh to a full vote in the Republican-controlled Senate "will bring the president one step closer to completing his illegal attempt to seize control of the Fed and to artificially juice the economy."

The full Senate vote is expected the week of May 11, with Powell's term as Fed chair ending on Friday, May 15.

- Karee Venema

Jerome Powell will stay on as Fed governor

The April Fed meeting came and went with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

However, this marked the largest dissent from committee members since 1992, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran voting instead for a quarter-point rate cut and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stating that they "did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time."

Jerome Powell also offered a surprise at his last press conference as head of the central bank, saying he will stay on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors once his term as Fed chair is up on May 15.

“I've said that I will not leave the board until this [Department of Justice] investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality," Powell said, "and I stand by that. I'm encouraged by recent developments, and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."

The DOJ on Friday, April 24, dropped its investigation into Powell over testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June about a multi-year project to renovate historic buildings. However, U.S. Attorney General Jeanine Pirro said her office reserves the right to restart the criminal probe once the Fed's inspector general reviews the cost overrun associated with renovations.

- Karee Venema

Can Kevin Warsh cut interest rates when he's confirmed?

The Senate is on track to confirm Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair by Friday, May 15. That's when Powell's term as Fed chair is scheduled to expire.

And President Donald Trump would like Warsh to cut interest rates as soon as June 16-17, at the next Fed meeting.

But decisions about the federal funds rate are made by a committee. And the Fed chair is just one of 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Cutting interest rates is one thing he can't do right now or ever all by himself.

But there are three things Kevin Warsh can do to change the Fed over the length of his initial four-year term.

– David Dittman

Read more: 3 Ways Kevin Warsh Will Change the Fed

Rate cut? More like rate hike!

"Do I think he'll cut rates? No chance."

That's how legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones assesses the probability that Kevin Warsh will do as President Donald Trump wishes and lower the target range for the federal funds rate as soon as he takes over at the most important central bank in the world.

The Senate is expected to approve Warsh's nomination to be the next Fed chair before May 15, when Jerome Powell is scheduled to leave the post.

That doesn't mean lower interest rates are coming, though.

"Well, I'd be thinking about raising them," Jones said on CNBC. "I'd want to see the data. But I mean, for sure you'd be thinking about it. And I think he's going to be constrained before the election."

The April jobs report, due out ahead of Friday's open, will provide more color about the employment situation, while the trajectory of inflation remains uncertain due to the war in the Middle East and the lingering impact of President Trump's tariffs.

Meanwhile, although the chair can't cut (or raise!) interest rates all by himself, there are things Warsh can do to change the Fed.

– David Dittman

April CPI rises at its fastest annual pace since 2023

A slowing labor market was the Federal Reserve's main focus in mid- to late 2025. Attention has shifted to inflation in 2026 as energy prices spike amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Since late February, when the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran began, oil prices have spiked to their highest level in four years and gas prices have jumped above $4.50 per gallon.

And it's already taking its toll on consumers' purchasing power. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% from March to April and was 3.8% higher year over year, the highest annual increase since May 2023. In March, CPI was 0.9% higher month over month and up 3.3% year over year.

Energy costs had the biggest impact on the April CPI report. "The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase," wrote the BLS. Compared to the year-ago period, the energy index was up 17.8% and the gasoline index was 28.4% higher.

Food costs were also higher in April, as were those for household furnishings, airfares, personal care and clothing. The shelter index was higher, too, rising 0.6% month over month after "the BLS introduced a methodological fix to an issue caused by the federal government shutdown in late 2025," says Matt Colyar of Moody's Analytics.

"If it weren't for an unusually mild reading in health care costs, the April results would have been worse," says Kiplinger's Payne. "There will be a similar rise in energy costs for May, though shelter will return to its normal increase."

Economists were calling for headline inflation to be up 0.6% from March to April and 3.7% from the year prior.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, accelerated in April, rising 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year vs March's readings of 0.2% and 2.6%. Economists expected core CPI to be up 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.7% higher year over year.

"For the Fed, with two successively strong employment reports, it should be increasingly turning its gaze away from labor being a problem (which in our view is more of a supply issue than a demand one) toward inflation as the problem," says Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. "Inflation was already broadly accelerating before the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and this recent supply shock just exacerbates that underlying trend. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will certainly have a harder time framing this case for rate cuts in this environment."

- Karee Venema

Senate confirms Warsh as Fed governor

By a vote of 51-45, the Senate on Tuesday confirmed Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors. Warsh will replace Stephen Miran, who temporarily filled a Fed governor position vacated by Adriana Kugler in August 2025.

The approval of Warsh to join the Federal Reserve's board is the final step before the Senate votes on his confirmation as the next Fed chair, which is expected to come as soon as Wednesday.

Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up this Friday, May 15, but he will stay on as a Fed governor for the time being.

- Karee Venema

The Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair

By a vote of 54-45, the Senate on Wednesday confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, succeeding Jerome Powell, whose term is up on Friday.

"Warsh's approach to monetary policy is shaped by a more traditional view of what the Fed should and should not do," says Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial. "Rather than leaning heavily on intervention and detailed promises about the future path of rates, Warsh has consistently argued for restraint, humility, and a greater reliance on incoming data."

And while President Trump is widely expecting the central bank to resume rate cuts, Warsh will take the reins at a time when the war in Iran is boosting energy prices and reigniting inflation. Additionally, "decisions about the federal funds rate are made by a committee," writes Kiplinger Investing Editor David Dittman. "And the Fed chair is just one of 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee."

- Karee Venema

The March Fed meeting concluded today, March 18, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

Following three straight quarter-point rate cuts to end 2025 and with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell nearing the end of his term, the central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged for a second straight meeting.

"The ongoing tension between the Fed's inflation and employment mandates has become harder to assess amid the conflict in Iran and the resulting rise in oil prices," says Lon Erickson, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management. "The only material change to the statement was to acknowledge this increased difficulty."

This meeting also featured the quarterly release of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections, or "dot plot," which shows where the committee expects the federal funds rate and inflation to be at the end of 2026.

"The changes to the SEP compared to December were relatively minor," says Erickson, who adds that "the Fed appears comfortable with current economic conditions, higher oil prices, and geopolitical concerns notwithstanding. "

The Kiplinger team reported live on the March Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the updates.

Big Change Coming to the Federal Reserve | How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | Quiz: How Well Do You Know the Fed?

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from March 17 to March 18, marks the second gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.

Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

March 17 to 18

April 28 to 29

June 16 to 17

July 28 to 29

September 15 to 16

October 27 to 28

December 8 to 9

Housing market could keep inflation anchored, say Manulife John Hancock co-chief investment strategists

Recent inflation data has been mixed. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was lower on an annual basis compared to January – 2.4% vs 2.7% to start the year.

But the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – came in at its highest level since March 2024.

Part of this difference, say Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategists at Manulife John Hancock Investments, is that the CPI gives greater weight to shelter costs, which have been slowly trending down.

And while markets now consider the most recently reported CPI and PCE readings dated given that spiking energy costs – including higher gas prices – have raised inflation expectations and lowered rate-cut odds, the two believe shelter costs could provide some stability.

"While we are fully aware of the risk to inflation rising due to the oil price spike, we would not forget about shelter/housing as a key reason inflationary dynamics may be anchored to some degree," Roland and Miskin write in emailed commentary. "The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked last week from just over 6% to now nearly 6.5%. Higher mortgage rates, greater volatility in markets (hindering the growing wealth effect), and increased economic/policy uncertainty (likely to weigh on consumer confidence) could weigh further on the housing market as the year goes on."

This scenario, according to the strategists, "would suggest a more anchored inflation backdrop than the market’s knee-jerk reaction to higher oil prices we have seen recently."

- Karee Venema

Stocks are higher to start Fed week

Stocks are trading higher to start Fed week as bargain hunters swoop in following last week's third straight weekly loss for U.S. markets.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.1% at 47,045, the broader S&P 500 is 1.2% higher at 6,708, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 1.3% to 22,390.

Mega-cap stocks are creating tailwinds for the broader market. Meta Platforms (META), for one, is 3% higher on unconfirmed reports that the Facebook parent is planning to lay off 20% of its workforce.

And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.3% ahead of GTC, its annual artificial intelligence conference.

As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are down 3.7% at $95.06 per barrel, but remain more than 40% higher month to date.

- Karee Venema

It's a big week for global central bank meetings

It's a big week for central bank meetings around the world. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) will be meeting to issue their latest policy decisions.

According to Jim Reid, global head of Macro Research and Thematic Strategy at Deutsche Bank, this marks the first time the four central banks have held their gatherings in the same week since December 2021.

"All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics," Reid says. "Clearly, the Middle East is the center of attention for markets right now."

It's widely expected that all four central banks will leave interest rates unchanged this time around, says Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, but he expects the Fed and the Bank of England to resume rate cuts later this year.

Nathan doesn't expect rate cuts from the ECB until next year, while the BoJ will likely raise rates at some point down the road. "However, if the current spike in oil prices persists, we may need to revise these views as policymakers grapple with the conflicting inflationary pressure and brakes on economic growth that come with higher energy costs," he adds.

- Karee Venema

When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?

President Donald Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell. But the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell has quieted down in recent months, given that the Fed chair's term is up on May 15, 2026.

In January, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Chair Powell once his term is up. "Warsh was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains," writes Kiplinger investing editor David Dittman. "Markets see Warsh as a source of stability should Trump continue to pressure the central bank. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011."

However, Warsh's path to Fed chair is not guaranteed at this point. Indeed, Republican Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has vowed to block any Federal Reserve nomination until a Department of Justice probe into Powell is resolved.

"This is about this is bedrock principle of Fed independence," Tillis told reporters earlier this month, according to CNBC. "The reason why I came out so strong so early is I believe that we, I, have no earthly idea what the market reaction would have been if suddenly the perception is that the Fed chair serves at the pleasure of the President, right?"

Tillis also called the administration's efforts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook are "sophomoric." However, the senator said he is "already impressed" with Warsh.

For what it's worth, Powell's term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.

- Karee Venema

The DOJ's probe into Chair Powell gets dealt a legal blow … for now

In January, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas regarding a multi-year renovation project at the central bank's headquarters in Washington, D.C., as part of a criminal investigation into Chair Powell.

Powell, in a historic move for a Fed chair, quickly responded to the allegations that he gave false statements to Congress regarding the renovations.

"This unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure," Powell said in a video statement. "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

The investigation is seen as a threat to the Federal Reserve's independence and has received criticism from around Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon, for one, said that "anything that chips away at" the Fed's independence "is not a good idea."

Meanwhile, Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina and member of the Senate Banking Committee, has threatened to block any Federal Reserve nomination until this issue is resolved.

And on Friday, March 13, it appeared the DOJ was hit with a legal blow when James Boasberg, a federal judge in Washington, tossed out the two subpoenas served to the central bank.

"There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas' dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will," Boasberg wrote in his 27-page decision. "On the other side of the scale, the government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the president."

However, this is not the end of the road for the investigation. Jeanine Pirro, U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said she will appeal the decision and file a motion asking Judge Boasberg to reconsider.

- Karee Venema

Who gets to vote at the March Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell*

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson

Fed Governor Michael Barr

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Fed Governor Stephen Miran**

Fed Governor Christopher Waller

New York Fed President John Williams

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

* Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up in May 15, 2026

** Stephen Miran's term as Fed governor was up on January 31, 2026, but he will continue to serve in the role until a successor is approved

- Karee Venema

Oil prices, inflation expectations are likely to keep the Fed sidelined this week

Expectations for Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are that the Fed will stand pat on interest rates.

The central bank is not going to want to make a move on short-term rates, either up or down, until they see what is going to happen with oil prices and the resulting impact on inflation expectations.

- David Payne

There are "no guarantees" oil prices will fall soon, says Trump's energy secretary

Oil prices have spiked to their highest level in four years as a result of the Iran war. Both West Texas Intermediate crude – the U.S. benchmark for oil prices – and Brent crude, the international benchmark, are up more than 40% for the month to date.

And according to AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. is 27% higher than it was a month ago. Rising gas prices are having a direct impact on consumer sentiment, too, as seen in the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which was released last Friday.

The index was down 1.9% vs February, with gasoline prices having "the most immediate impact felt by consumers," says Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

Hsu notes that the survey, which was conducted between February 17 and March 9, also showed that "a broad swath of consumers across incomes, age, and political affiliation all reported declines in expectations for their personal finances, down 7.5% nationally."

And gas prices could stay elevated for the time being. Speaking on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there are "no guarantees" that oil prices will come down in the near term.

"Right now, our focus is destroying their military capabilities, including those that are used specifically to threaten the straits," Wright noted. "But we need to finish those tasks first, and you will see the straits open again in the not-too-distant future."

He added that the administration is aware the conflict "would cause a little bit of increased prices on Americans," but said, "this is short-term pain to get through to a much better place."

- Karee Venema

Related: War in Iran Threatens Higher Fuel Prices, Renewed Inflation

Where have all the Fed speakers been?

The Fed-speak has been nonexistent over the past week or so. That's by design. Since Saturday, March 7, and until Thursday, March 19, participants in the FOMC meeting have been bound by a Federal Reserve policy that limits the extent to which they can talk about the economy and interest rates.

These two-week "blackout periods" begin the second Saturday that falls 10 days before the next FOMC meeting and end the Thursday that follows the meeting. The Fed's blackout period was an unofficial practice that began in the 1980s. It was formalized in 2011 and reaffirmed in January 2025.

Fed-watchers see the policy as a measure against corruption and the potential for information leaks to distort markets. It also provides cover for open discussion during the Fed's most intense periods of policy-making.

Here is a schedule for all blackout periods through January 2028.

- David Dittman

The Fed's near-term inflation forecast is likely to change given higher oil prices, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel, says that it's widely expected the FOMC leaves the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% when it concludes its March gathering this Wednesday afternoon, though he believes the Fed "is likely to acknowledge uncertainty related to the war with Iran."

Zureick notes that crude oil is up by more than 50% since the January Fed meeting. "This is likely to raise the Fed's forecast for inflation in the near term, while also weighing on the outlook for economic growth," he says. Investors will see how the Fed's forecast has evolved, given the ongoing conflict in Iran, in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

He adds that as part of the SEP, the Fed will also release its forecast for interest rates, known as the "dot plot."

"While it is possible that a few FOMC members could adjust their interest rate forecasts to include less potential policy easing, considering higher energy prices, the overall rate forecast from the Fed is unlikely to change materially," says the economist.

Zureick also believes that with Powell's term nearing its end, the Fed chair is "unlikely to comment directly about the upcoming leadership change," leaving investors "to consider how policy may evolve under Kevin Warsh – the President's nominee."

- Karee Venema

Stocks close Monday with big gains, oil prices retreat

Stocks opened the week much higher as bargain hunters swooped in following three straight weekly losses. Oil prices were also on the move, only the price action was to the downside, as President Donald Trump called on U.S. allies to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

While no nation has publicly committed to assist the U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal, front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 5.3% today to settle at $95.50 per barrel.

As for the main indexes, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.8% at 46,946, the broader S&P 500 was 1.0% higher at 6,699, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.2% to 22,374.

Read more: Stocks Open Higher to Start Fed Week: Stock Market Today

Futures turn positive as Fed meeting begins

Equity index futures recovered from an early decline on Tuesday and pointed to a positive open for U.S. stocks on the first day of the second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2026.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract is trading 2.7% higher after Israel said it killed Iran's top security official and the Islamic Republic struck a natural gas field in the United Arab Emirates.

Treasury yields inched lower, with the 2-year down to 3.665% vs 3.68% on Monday, the 10-year at 4.206% vs 4.22% and the 30-year down to 4.855% from 4.858%.

Investors, traders and speculators as well as monetary policymakers are closely tuned to what's happening in the Middle East and the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

"The Hormuz closure is turning a shipping disruption into a true global supply loss as storage in the region fills and upstream shut-ins rise," Morgan Stanley Global Director of Research Katy Huberty writes.

Though offsets to lost supply can only replace "a fraction of the barrels lost" via the strait, according to Huberty "the bar remains high for the oil spike to threaten the business/earnings cycle."

The Fed's approach during similar events in the past was to look through short-term spikes in crude oil prices due to geopolitical events while continuing to balance inflation and economic growth risks.

"The central bank is widely expected to remain on the sidelines," BMO Senior Economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy writes, "with markets focused less on the actual decision itself, and more on signals around inflation, oil price shocks and the path of future monetary policy."

– David Dittman

The Fed is likely to be less intense about crude oil

All three main U.S. equity indexes held solid gains about an hour into the trading session on the first day of a Fed meeting made more complicated by a war in the Middle East.

Markets and monetary policymakers must weigh the impact of higher oil prices. Indeed, is it a good time to chase energy stocks as oil prices spike?

Well, that depends. In addition to your risk tolerance, time horizon and objectives, you'll want to think about how high crude oil prices will go from here and how long they will stay there. (Just like the Fed, in fact…)

While oil is still a critical factor in our economy, we just aren't as intense about it. "Lower oil 'intensity' – less oil used per dollar of economic output – means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades," LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach explains.

And on the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of products made from crude oil. "Because we produce more than we import," Roach elaborates, "the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and '80s, for example."

At the same time, Roach writes, "Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation. If energy costs stay elevated, inflation could rise again, potentially delaying interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve."

Bottom line: "Geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk," the economist concludes. "Conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and increase price volatility in key commodities like oil."

– David Dittman

A survey of former Fed officials says…

The war in the Middle East will contribute to higher inflation and more unemployment this year, a regular survey of former Federal Reserve officials (pdf) says, and there’s little the U.S. central bank can do about it

Former officials forecast 3% inflation vs the Fed's 2.4% projection, current as of December. The Fed's long-term inflation target is 2%. The former officials estimate unemployment at 4.6% vs. a Fed estimate of 4.4% and a long-term "normal" rate of 4.2%.

Though they agree the U.S. is not currently in recession or heading toward such a slowdown, they do project slower economic growth. And that could change based on the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the extent of disruptions to global crude oil flows.

Jon Hilsenrath, the original "Fed whisperer" at The Wall Street Journal who is now a visiting scholar at Duke, asked 28 former officials and staff members about the substance of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) between March 6 and March 13.

Hilsenrath conducts his survey on a quarterly basis coincident with the release of the SEP. His panel includes former Fed governors, regional bank presidents and researchers.

– David Dittman

The Fed chair and the price of oil

Pretty soon we'll be talking about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's last FOMC meeting and press conference. That's on the economic calendar for April 28-29. Assuming he's confirmed, soon we'll be talking about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as the new Fed chair, scheduled for June 16-17.

CME FedWatch still suggests a Warsh Fed will be more likely to cut interest rates than the Powell Fed is, but the probabilities are shifting in favor of meetings further out on the calendar, along with potential upward pressure on inflation from spiking crude oil prices.

Indeed, futures pricing shows an 80.8% probability the federal funds rate remains in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% come June 17, up from 78.0% on Monday, 58.3% a week ago and 36.6% a month ago.

Note that the price of the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 50.0% from the close on February 17 through the close on March 16.

Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen still expects the Fed to cut as soon as Powell departs. "We're still on June and September," Gapen told Bloomberg, "with the risk of course it gets delayed." Gapen added that "the later and maybe the longer the Fed waits, the more it has to put in maybe an additional rate cut."

The economist said that "a reasonable recession probability" doesn't arise until crude oil prices get to $125 to $150 for a prolonged period. "The economy can handle $90 to $100 per barrel prices," he concluded.

– David Dittman

What if the Fed's next move is a rate hike?

We just talked about an out-of-consensus view on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and when it will cut interest rates.

According to CME FedWatch, the market is almost 100% sure the Fed's next move will be to lower the federal funds rate, whether in June or later in 2026.

Of course, "almost" is doing the work here, and High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Carl Weinberg made at least one headline with his call for this week's Fed meeting.

As MarketWatch reports, Weinberg last week wrote in a note to clients that "the Fed's job is to minimize the risk of the worst-possible outcome," which he says is prices accelerating above the central bank's 2% inflation target.

“Even if the FOMC does not hike," and Weinberg refuses to rule out such a move this week, "officials will surely talk about it, and we expect Mr. Powell will let us know about it at his press conference."

– David Dittman

When the FOMC meeting is "the other big news"

"The big news this week," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes, "will be Nvidia’s (NVDA) developers’ conference." The tech stock, which is down more than 6% since management reported earnings last month, "looks very strong and is a great oasis stock for nervous investors."

NVDA has added more than 1% this week. As Navellier notes, leader of the AI revolution "is already helping to boost storage companies," including Micron Technology (MU) and Seagate Technology (STX) as well as AI hardware stocks "that speed up optical connections," such as Ciena (CIEN) and Ubiquiti (UI).

"The other big news," Navellier writes, "will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the FOMC statement." Navellier expects the Fed to say it's "carefully monitoring" the employment situation, as the February jobs report marked the fifth month of losses in the past nine.

"Additionally," he says, "I hope the FOMC will stay that they expect that food and energy inflation will be 'transitory' due to the bombing in Iran that disrupted the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz."

The three main U.S. equity indexes were holding modest gains heading into the last hour of trading on the first day of the March Fed meeting, with nine of 11 sectors in positive territory.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 3.3% but has retreated from recent highs above $100.

"Now that the U.S. bombed the Kharg Island with Iran’s deepwater access for supertankers, the U.S. is now effectively in control of Iran’s crude oil revenue," Navellier concludes. "It is likely that Iran and the U.S. will be negotiating soon, so that is providing some temporary crude oil price relief."

– David Dittman

Why present is prologue for the fed funds rate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to talk about interest rates, inflation and employment. The FOMC releases its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) – the "dot plot" you'll hear so much about tomorrow – four times a year, in March, June, September and December.

Indeed, the updated SEP will be "a key point" on Wednesday, as Deutsche Bank strategist Matthew Raskin writes. "Our economists expect the median headline and core PCE inflation projections for this year to move up to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, with all other median economic projections unchanged."

Deutsche Bank economists expect "no revisions to the median calendar year fed funds rate projections but anticipate the median longer-run dot will inch up a tenth to 3.1%." And here's the thing about that…

Raskin describes a set of U.S. Treasury market term structure-based models that offer clues when and where the "neutral rate might be expected to move materially in the future (as may be the case today given the potential effects of AI)."

Those models indicated a "substantial markdown in SEP projections" during the 2010s, suggesting their probative value. "The range of term structure-based estimates currently spans 3.0-3.8% with a median of 3.7%, firmly above the SEP median even if it moves up as we expect," Raskin observes.

"That is, through the lens of these models," the strategist concludes, "the curve embeds expectations that the Fed’s policy rate will ultimately settle around its current level."

– David Dittman

Higher oil prices can't keep stocks down

Stocks opened comfortably higher Tuesday, but lost steam as the session wore on as market participants weighed the latest developments in the Middle East. Rising oil prices were also in focus as the Federal Reserve kicked off its March meeting.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.1% higher at 46,993, the broader S&P 500 was up 0.3% at 6,716, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 0.5% to 22,479.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 2.9% to settle at $96.21 per barrel, and are now up nearly 44% for the month to date.

While the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, Wall Street will be watching to see how higher energy costs will impact the Fed's inflation forecast and rate-cut plans.

Read more: Higher Oil Prices Can't Keep Stocks Down: Stock Market Today

We've got three weeks until the real energy shock

It's fair to assume the central bank has people on staff doing this kind of work too, but let's turn it over to BMO Senior Economist Erik Johnson for an estimate of when crude oil's rise might begin to have a real impact on things the Fed pays attention to such as inflation.

The problem is approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz during normal times. These are not normal times.

As Johnson explains, tanker crossings have plunged from 50 to 80 per week in each direction to nearly zero in the third week of a disruption that's likely removed approximately 180 million to 250 million barrels from global supply.

"A coordinated 400-million-barrel IEA-led SPR release will help cushion the shortfall over the coming month," Johnson estimates. Based on his assumptions for output from the Persian Gulf, the coordinated effort can replace approximately 16 to 22 days of normal flow through the Strait to global markets.

"That implies the U.S. and Israel have roughly three weeks to reach an offramp before upward pressure on oil prices intensifies further," Johnson concludes.

Meanwhile, as the economist also explains, "Fuel oil is a core input for maritime freight, and food commodities remain among the most shipping-intensive goods in world trade."

Global food prices were trending lower before the war in the Middle East. "Since 2008," Johnson writes, "year-over-year changes in Singapore fuel-oil prices and the FAO Food Price Index have exhibited a strong positive correlation."

So another risk to mind here is "that prolonged fuel-price pressure could trigger a renewed acceleration in global food inflation."

That would be hard on emerging markets, which generally import a lot of fuel and food. It would also be hard on central banks, including the Fed, which "could face widening headline–core inflation gaps, complicating monetary policy decisions," as Johnson notes.

And, of course, it would also be hard on people: "Food inflation is one of the most salient categories for households," the economist concludes.

– David Dittman

Stock futures point lower after hot PPI data

The main indexes are poised for a lower open on Wednesday after a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, which measures wholesale prices, rose 0.7% month over month in February, faster than December's 0.4% increase and January's 0.5% rise. Economists expected PPI to be up 0.3%

Year over year, PPI was up 3.4%, its largest annual increase since February 2025.

"Both services as well as goods prices were very strong, underscoring the risks for monetary policy," write Eugenio J. Alemán, Ph.D., chief economist, and Giampiero Fuentes, economist at Raymond James. "This report likely reinforces a hold decision by the Federal Reserve later today but tilts the risk toward a more hawkish tone in today's FOMC decision."

At last check, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 were all down 0.6%.

- Karee Venema

How can investors prepare for market volatility?

The stock market has made some major one-day moves in recent weeks. Just today, futures were signaling a higher open until a red-hot inflation report quickly sent them tumbling into the red.

And the escalating conflict in Iran, which has boosted energy prices and ramped up inflation concerns, certainly doesn't ease investors' worries.

"We find ourselves in an interesting place with the potential for continued volatility given the myriad of economic and geopolitical risks that hang over markets," says Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.

But Schutte says it's important for investors to remember that "the proper response is not one of dramatic action or large shifts in portfolio construction but rather a continued steady hand. After all, your portfolio asset allocation already reflects the reality that these various outcomes have been and unfortunately will be future features of both economies and equity markets."

He adds that this is "what diversification is built for," including different assets in your portfolio that do well in different scenarios. Because "uncertainty spikes are just that — a historical and likely future reality."

There's no one way to build your portfolio to guard against uncertainty. It's really up to you and your financial goals. But including high-quality core stocks that provide stability to your portfolio is a good place to start, while the addition of low-cost index funds is another way to navigate the ups and downs of the market.

- Karee Venema

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, March 18.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated," the committee wrote in its January statement. "Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."

As such, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

Wells Fargo economists Tom Porcelli, Sarah House and Michael Pugliese don't anticipate any dramatic changes to the March FOMC statement.

"We expect it to highlight additional uncertainty in the outlook due to the Iran conflict," the group notes. And following a much weaker-than-anticipated February jobs report, the economists say they "would not be surprised if the language around 'some signs of stabilization' in unemployment is tweaked to be a bit more pessimistic."

- Karee Venema

What time does Jerome Powell speak today?

Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, March 18.

Deutsche Bank economists believe Chair Powell will underscore "that significant uncertainty remains," and explain "how recent events could impact the economy and monetary policy."

The economists expect Powell to note that monetary policy is in a solid position to withstand any consequences of these risks and that the Federal Reserve is monitoring these events closely.

"Fundamentally, the latest oil price spike represents another adverse supply shock that would, at the margin, create further tensions between the Fed’s dual mandates, all else equal," they write. "While markets have interpreted these developments as leaning hawkish for the Fed – an interpretation we agree with directionally – Powell is unlikely to give a strong signal about how near-term policy has been affected, if at all."

As for any questions regarding rate hikes, the economists believe Chair Powell will "likely point to the SEP and reiterate the value of such diverse views on the Committee."

- Karee Venema

A "tricky trifecta" will keep the Fed sidelined today, says HB Wealth's chief market strategist

The Federal Reserve is likely to remain sidelined at its March meeting "as markets focus near term on the tricky trifecta of war, AI and private credit," says Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth. In addition, Powell is a "lame duck" as he nears the end of his term as Fed chair.

"Given we've only seen inflation pressures escalate in the short run, and that the general consensus view is the war will end in short order, it is hard to make a case that the Fed should be doing anything but sitting tight at this time," she adds.

Martin Adams notes that oil prices remain the "clear short-term driver" of price action. And she believes some similarities can be drawn to the 2022 oil supply shock, including that "continued supply chain constraints threaten to elevate BOTH food and energy prices."

The strategist explains that stocks initially shrugged off the spike in oil prices in 2022, assuming the Russia-Ukraine war would be short-lived. "In the first two weeks of the Russia-Ukraine war, the S&P 500 dropped just 0.6%," Martin Adds says. "That year, it took two months of elevated commodity prices to dismantle the equity market's sanguine view, and five months of elevated oil prices to create a recession in earnings."

In the bigger picture, she feels a swift end to the war in Iran and a settling of oil prices will refocus the market's attention on AI and private credit, which were both "struggling well before the war broke out."

- Karee Venema

Powell & his purple ties

It's a near-certainty that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged today. It's also likely that Fed Chair Powell will wear a purple tie during Wednesday's press conference.

That's because Powell always wears a purple tie … and there's a reason for it.

During an early April Q&A session with journalists at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference, Powell was asked about the significance of his purple ties.

"At the beginning, the only significance was that I like purple ties," Powell replied. At his next press conference, he said he went to reach for a red or blue tie and thought, "Maybe not … so I wind up wearing purple."

He said now it's become "a thing," and it supports the fact that the Fed "is strictly non-political" and "bipartisan," and purple is a good color for that.

"Plus, I like purple ties," Powell concluded.

- Karee Venema

Dow Jones dives 440 points ahead of Fed's interest rate decision

With a little under 45 minutes to go until the Fed's interest rate decision, stocks are trading in negative territory.

At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.9% at 46,551, the broader S&P 500 was off 0.8% at 6,665, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.9% lower at 22,285.

Markets are reacting to this morning's hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February and another spike in oil prices. Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are up 2% to trade at $98.12 per barrel.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury is up 4.9 basis points at 3.72%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 3.2 basis points higher at 4.234%. (A basis point = 0.01%.)

- Karee Venema

The Fed decision on interest rates is in

The Federal Reserve paused once again in March, keeping the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected.

What changed in the FOMC's latest policy statement

Changes to the FOMC's latest policy statement include the following:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. (Previously read: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.)

Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. (Previously read: Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.)

- Karee Venema

Where can I watch Fed Chair Powell's press conference?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

What did the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections show?

Federal Open Market Committee members left their forecast for near-term interest rates unchanged from December, calling for just one quarter-point rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

However, their longer-run outlook for the federal funds rate rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in December.

The committee expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to be slightly higher than previously forecast, at 2.4% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Projections for the unemployment rate were relatively unchanged, though the FOMC expects it to be at 4.3% in 2028, a tick higher than its prior outlook of 4.2%.

The Fed's inflation outlook for 2026 was higher, rising to 2.7% vs December's 2.5% projection.

You can see the FOMC's full Summary of Economic Projections here.

- Karee Venema

The Fed's "wait-and-see" approach is appropriate, says WFII co-head of Global Fixed Income Strategy

"Coming into 2026, we expected two Fed rate cuts," says Luis Alvarado, co-head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "However, the balance of risks has shifted, and the bar for cutting rates has risen meaningfully."

As such, he believes the central bank's currently "wait-and-see" approach is appropriate.

Alvarado feels like the current backdrop is sort of a déjà vu for the Fed. "Policymakers are once again navigating competing objectives of bringing inflation down while avoiding unnecessary stress on growth and labor markets. That tension is likely to define monetary policy discussions throughout 2026."

And despite composition changes coming to the committee in Q2, Alvarado does not anticipate a major shift in policy direction. "The dot plot continues to show a wide range of views, underscoring uncertainty rather than a decisive pivot."

- Karee Venema

Powell talks about how the Fed is looking at rising energy prices

Asked how the Fed will react to the ongoing rise in energy prices due to the war in Iran, Powell said that the most important thing the central bank is looking for is whether inflation in goods caused by tariffs on imports is easing.

But he also acknowledged that inflation has been above the Fed's target for the past five years, which will complicate how, or whether, he and his colleagues will be able to discount the impact of rising oil prices on inflation.

Normally, the Fed "looks through" such shocks, but it sounds like it won't necessarily do that this time.

- Jim Patterson

Powell: Nobody knows how oil prices will impact the broader economy

"We haven't seen the progress we'd hoped for" on inflation in goods prices easing, due in part to the White House's tariff policies, Powell said.

Asked whether he is also concerned that the economy could suffer as consumers spend more on gas and less on everything else, Powell said that "nobody knows" at this point. "We just don't know" yet how significant the impact of the spike in oil prices could be for the broad economy.

He noted that it could weigh on consumer spending and consumer sentiment. But he also allowed for the possibility that the effect won't be that significant.

- Jim Patterson

Is there an upside to higher oil prices?

Is there an upside to higher oil prices, since the U.S. is the world's largest oil producer?

Powell seemed cautious about predicting one, noting that energy companies are going to want to see oil prices elevated for an extended period of time before they decide to drill and produce more oil.

"But some of that could happen over time" if the rise in oil prices proves durable.

- Jim Patterson

Powell believes inflation in goods prices is a one-time issue due to tariffs vs a systemic risk

"We worry a lot" about whether higher oil prices could cause consumers to begin expecting inflation to rise in the long run, which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if people start buying more things in anticipation of higher prices later.

But Powell also noted that he thinks interest rates are currently high enough to keep pushing inflation down in the long run, even with the near-term price pressures from tariffs and rising fuel prices.

He regards the inflation in goods prices as largely the result of tariffs, which should act as a one-time boost to prices, as opposed to a systemic problem.

- Jim Patterson

Is Powell more concerned about the labor market or inflation?

What about the lackluster jobs market, where hiring has been slack recently?

Asked if he is more concerned about slowing job creation than inflation, Powell said no, noting that inflation is "well above" where the Fed wants it to be, "and that's a concern; we need to get back down to 2% ... I'd be hard-pressed to say that" unemployment or inflation is the bigger worry. Both are equal concerns.

- Jim Patterson

Powell will temporarily stay on as Fed chair if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his term

When asked if he will stay on as Fed chair if nominee Kevin Warsh is not yet confirmed by the end of his term in May, Powell said he would on an interim basis, as dictated by law.

However, Powell said he has not yet decided if he will stay on the Fed's Board of Governors beyond the end of his run as Fed chair. His term on the board ends on January 31, 2028.

- David Payne

Despite weak jobs numbers in February, Powell says there are signs of stability in the labor market

Asked whether the February jobs report, which showed a loss of jobs, was a concern for the broader economy, Powell said that it should be combined with the better-than-expected job creation number in January.

"There are a number of indicators that suggest a degree of stability" in the labor market, but the Fed is still concerned about the trend of low job creation in recent months, with "effectively zero net job creation in the private sector."

However, he also noted that there is little or no growth in the labor force, due in part to restrictive immigration policies. So maybe the economy is balanced, with little demand for new workers, and little supply of them.

- Jim Patterson

Financial markets brace for no rate cuts this year

As Powell spoke, and noted that the Fed does not have high confidence in its projection for a single rate cut sometime this year, financial markets adjusted down the odds of seeing an interest rate cut.

Coming into the meeting, the consensus was a slight preference for one cut, but now markets are leaning toward the Fed standing still on rates this year. Perhaps that is due to Powell emphasizing that inflation is as big a concern for the Fed as weak job creation.

- David Payne

How worried should we be about higher gas and food prices?

Asked pointedly if American consumers should be worried about an extended period of high gas prices and a rise in food prices due to reduced fertilizer exports from the Middle East, Powell declined to make a forecast, emphasizing that the situation with the war in Iran is simply too volatile for the Fed to make any projections right now.

- Jim Patterson

The economy is holding up well, says Powell

"The U.S. economy has really been doing pretty well through a lot of significant challenges over the past few years," Powell said, when asked how much the Fed thinks it can predict about the impact of the Iran war.

He noted that a lot of economists expected a recession in 2022 when soaring inflation forced the Fed to jack up interest rates, yet the economy ended up doing well. Something similar could happen now, even if the war drives up certain costs and adds to inflation.

The economy has been resilient, was his message. But he also conceded that the Fed just doesn't know if it will shrug off this latest inflationary shock.

- David Payne

Is sticky inflation starting to weigh on consumer psychology? Powell thinks so

After five years of above-target inflation, what does Powell think the impact on consumer psychology has been?

"If you talk to people, they do feel squeezed." Some costs, such as insurance, are still rising at especially steep rates, he noted.

Those pressures just make the Fed even more determined to succeed at its legally mandated task of achieving price stability over the long term, Powell said.

He also mentioned that keeping the Fed independent of political pressures is critical to achieving that goal, which implies not cutting interest rates too much or too fast if prices are rising too fast.

- Jim Patterson

Dot plot signals "greater cohesion" among Fed members, says Mission Wealth CIO

"As expected, the Fed held rates steady at its March FOMC meeting," says Kieran Osborne, partner and chief investment officer at Mission Wealth. "The statement highlighted an uncertain economic backdrop, driven primarily by the Middle East conflict and the associated spike in oil prices."

Osborne points to the "dot plot," which was little changed vs December, showing "modestly increasing expectations for near-term economic growth and indicated slightly higher inflation projections — likely reflecting elevated oil prices."

Most importantly, Osborne says, "there was no change to the broader trajectory of monetary policy."

Osborne points to the fact that there was just one dissenter this time — Stephen Miran — which suggests "greater cohesion among voting members on monetary policy. Ahead of the meeting, expectations were for two to three dovish dissents. Both Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a 25 bp rate cut at the January meeting, and there had been some expectation that Bowman might join them this time around."

- Karee Venema

Powell says productivity is the reason behind the upwardly revised GDP forecasts

When asked whether the upwardly revised growth estimates in the Summary of Economic Projections are due to AI productivity, Powell said it was "just productivity."

He noted that they first saw productivity start to improve during the pandemic, even before generative AI. This is unusual for productivity to grow this strongly over such a long period of time. It's key to improving living standards.

Building data centers everywhere stimulates the economy, so rates could rise in the short term. But in the long term, the pressure on rates will be determined by which is stronger - the demand or supply side.

- David Payne

There's little sense of urgency for the Fed to move on interest rates, says Vaster's managing director

"The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reinforces a cautious stance toward inflation, with the updated Summary of Economic Projections signaling that inflation may remain more persistent than previously expected," says Zack Simkins, managing director at Vaster.

The lingering uncertainty over rising energy prices and the conflict in the Middle East creates "little urgency for the Fed to make any abrupt moves," he adds.

Simkins adds that the FOMC's outlook signals "a continuation of the current rate environment, with any potential easing likely to be gradual."

Higher-for-longer interest rates could dampen some risk appetite, says Simkins, but they also provide "greater clarity for capital allocation decisions across asset classes. That added predictability is helping reduce volatility and gradually bring liquidity back into the market, particularly across more rate-sensitive sectors."

- Karee Venema

Stocks close lower after March Fed meeting

Stocks sold off Wednesday after the Federal Reserve did as expected and held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady, but signaled a growing concern with inflationary pressures.

The main U.S. equity indexes opened lower on hotter-than-expected wholesale price data, and crude oil's continuing rise helped keep a lid on risk appetite. The conclusion of the Fed meeting weighed on most sectors and industries late in the trading session.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.6% at 46,224, the broad-based S&P 500 was off 1.4% at 6,624, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had lost 1.5% to 22,152.

Read more: Dow Slides 768 Points on Inflation Fears: Stock Market Today

Wednesday's post-Fed sell-off signals overly optimistic expectations, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

The FOMC's decision to stand pat on rates was expected, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel. And "while the Fed's assessment of the economy was little changed, they did acknowledge that 'The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.'"

The Summary of Economic Projections signaled slightly higher forecasts for both economic growth and inflation, while the median forecast called for one additional cut in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the December forecast, he adds.

Zureick says that this makes clear the Federal Reserve is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, "acknowledging that recent geopolitical developments are risks to both inflation and economic growth, but it is too early to take any policy action as a result."

While the FOMC's statement and SEP forecasts were fairly uneventful, the economist feels Chair Powell's press conference shed light on how he's approaching the uncertainty. "Specifically, he pushed back on the idea of near-term rate cuts and sounded a bit more hawkish regarding the outlook for inflation."

The subsequent stock sell-off is "a sign that perhaps investors were overly optimistic about the timing of additional policy easing," Zureick explains.

- Karee Venema

The January Fed meeting wrapped up on Wednesday, January 28, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

Following three straight quarter-point rate cuts to end 2025 and data showing inflation is holding steady, the central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged this time around, as was widely expected.

"The decision to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% at today's meeting was never in doubt and we expect the Fed will remain on hold through June," says Michael Pearce, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics. "The Fed always moves more cautiously when rates are close to a neutral setting, and we think labor market conditions are stabilizing."

Pierce believes the biggest events shaping the central bank right now are the legal battles over Fed Governor Lisa Cook's potential firing and the Department of Justice investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, both of which Powell refused to comment on during today's press conference.

Powell also refused to answer questions on President Donald Trump's potential pick to replace him, though he did offer up some words of advice for the next Fed chair.

The Kiplinger team reported live on the January Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the updates.

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Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from January 27 to January 28, marks the first gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm.

Here is the full Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

January 27 to 28

March 17 to 18

April 28 to 29

June 16 to 17

July 28 to 29

September 15 to 16

October 27 to 28

December 8 to 9

- Karee Venema

Expect more volatility this week, says Wedbush

Last week's volatility in the stock market, which saw the S&P 500 explore a 145-point intraday trading range and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hit its highest level since November, was sparked by President Trump's turnaround on a potential annexation of Greenland and a new round of tariffs on Europe.

Wedbush analyst Seth Basham expects more volatility this week as market participants sift through a jam-packed earnings calendar and assess the January Fed meeting.

As for the Fed meeting, Basham expects the central bank to maintain a more cautious approach despite political pressure.

"We expect Fed Chair Powell to signal heightened caution at upcoming meetings," the analyst writes in a January 25 note. "With the administration running the economy hot and PCE inflation still roughly 80 basis points above the 2% target, policy changes are likely to pause for some time."

And given Powell is near the end of his term, Basham believes "he’s likely to maintain vigilance against inflation, even if it means disappointing equity investors and the President who are seeking easier financial conditions."

- Karee Venema

When does Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair end?

President Trump has not been subtle in his dislike of Fed Chair Powell. But the question of whether or not Trump can fire Powell is seemingly moot given that his term as Fed chair is up in just a few months – on May 15, 2026.

It's unlikely that those in Trump's inner circle will encourage him to disrupt the status quo and replace Powell before his term is over – which could potentially send stocks and bonds tumbling – given that there's such a small amount of time left.

And the president is widely expected to announce his choice for Powell's replacement any day now. Top candidates include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett and Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of fixed income.

For what it's worth, Powell's term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve ends on January 31, 2028.

- Karee Venema

There are more rate cuts to come, just not this week

The majority of Fed members believe that additional rate cuts will be necessary at some point, says Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, but he doesn't expect the next one until June.

"Chair Powell is likely to emphasize that the FOMC has just delivered three cuts that should help to stabilize the labor market and is well positioned for now while it assesses their impact," says Mericle.

And if the labor market steadies, rate cuts become less urgent, he adds.

Mericle thinks the Fed will issue its final cut in September, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.0 to 3.25%.

"We see the risks over the next year or two as tilted to the downside because we think hikes are quite unlikely but could imagine a few reasons for additional cuts, and our probability-weighted Fed forecast is a bit below both our baseline and market pricing," he notes.

- Karee Venema

Who gets to vote at the January Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell*

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson

Fed Governor Michael Barr

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Fed Governor Stephen Miran**

Fed Governor Christopher Waller

New York Fed President John Williams

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

* Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair is up in May 15, 2026

** Stephen Miran's term as Fed governor is up on January 31, 2026

- Karee Venema

What is Wall Street expecting from the next Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged when its January gathering concludes on Wednesday.

Of more interest, writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows, is how Chair Powell will manage his press conference as "the Fed's independence has come under question, and Powell is set to preside over just two more meetings before his term as Fed chief ends on May 15."

To get a sense of what Wall Street is expecting from the next Fed meeting, Burrows "turned to economists, strategists and other experts for their thoughts on monetary policy going forward."

Read what they had to say here: What Will the Fed Do at Its Next Meeting?

Who is Rick Rieder?

President Trump is expected to announce his pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair any day now.

The conversation has been ongoing for several months, and many folks are by now familiar with the two Kevins: former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett.

Hassett has moved down the list in recent weeks after President Trump said he'd like him to remain in his current role, while another name has moved into contention: Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of fixed income and global head of asset allocation at BlackRock.

Mr. Rieder joined BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, in 2009, and currently manages roughly $2.4 trillion in assets. He previously served as CEO of R3 Capital Partners and as head of global principal strategies at Lehman Brothers.

Rieder has served on several government panels, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets.

Kalshi prediction markets currently put Rieder, whom Trump called "very impressive" in a recent CNBC interview, in the lead.

"Either of the two leading candidates, Rick Rieder or Kevin Warsh, are likely to be welcomed by markets as well-credentialed and more than capable of serving in the role," says Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy & research and Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.

- Karee Venema

Who appointed Jerome Powell as Fed chair?

Jerome Powell assumed the role of Fed chair on February 5, 2018, after being nominated by then-President Donald Trump, who was serving his first term in the White House.

Powell's initial four-year stint as head of the Federal Reserve ended in 2022, but he was reappointed for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022, after being nominated by then-President Joe Biden.

Powell initially joined the Fed's Board of Governors in 2012 after he was nominated by then-President Barack Obama.

While Powell's second term as Fed chair will expire in May 2026, he can remain on the Fed's board until January 2028.

- Karee Venema

It's a big week ahead for Wall Street

This week will be a busy one on Wall Street. In addition to the Fed meeting, market participants will also have a full earnings calendar to sift through.

Most notable are the handful of Magnificent 7 stocks reporting, including Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA), whose results will be released after Wednesday's close. Apple (AAPL) will report after Thursday's close.

The outlooks from Apple, Meta and Microsoft will be particularly crucial, says Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. "With AI investment still ramping up and profit margins expanding, Wall Street expects mega-cap tech to deliver another year of standout earnings growth: +25% versus +15% for the broader S&P 500."

Adam adds that "valuations may appear more compelling," with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Mag 7 stocks at the lowest level since 2017. "Taken together, the setup may suggest that despite the early stumble, mega-cap tech still has plenty of room to outperform as the year unfolds."

- Karee Venema

The odds of a government shutdown are rising

The risk of a partial government shutdown looms after Senate Democrats said they would block a funding bill that includes spending for the Department of Homeland Security. This comes after federal immigration agents fatally shot another U.S. citizen this weekend in Minnesota.

Part of the deal reached to end the record-long government shutdown in November included a continuing resolution that would fund most federal agencies through January 30, 2026.

The House of Representatives has passed several annual funding measures in recent weeks and the bills were widely expected to pass the Senate until this weekend's fatal shooting of Alex Pretti.

"Importantly, one of the nine annual appropriations bills passed by the House is Homeland Security, which houses Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)," say Wells Fargo economists Michael Pugliese and Tom Porcelli. "In the wake of the incident, some Senate Democrats who were widely expected to support the budget bill have pulled their support until there have been some policy and process reforms to CBP/ICE."

Another shutdown would leave the Fed in a tricky spot, the two add. "The lack of visibility that arises from receiving limited economic data could thrust an already divided FOMC into a period of stasis. Fed officials lamented the lack of clarity on inflation during the last shutdown. We expect they would again use this argument to delay additional cuts."

The January jobs report is currently scheduled for release next Friday, February 6, while the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is slated for Tuesday, February 11. Another government shutdown puts the data at risk of being delayed or canceled outright, as we saw last fall.

Related: What Does a Government Shutdown Mean for Stocks?

- Karee Venema

Where have all the Fed speakers been?

The Fed-speak has been nonexistent over the past week or so. That's by design. Since Saturday, January 17, and until Thursday, January 29, participants in the FOMC meeting have been bound by a Federal Reserve policy that limits the extent to which they can talk about the economy and interest rates.

These two-week "blackout periods" begin the second Saturday that falls 10 days before the next FOMC meeting and end the Thursday that follows the meeting. The Fed's blackout period was an unofficial practice that began in the 1980s. It was formalized in 2011 and reaffirmed in January 2025.

Fed-watchers see the policy as a measure against corruption and the potential for information leaks to distort markets. It also provides cover for open discussion during the Fed's most intense periods of policy-making.

Here is a schedule for all blackout periods through January 2028.

- David Dittman

Stocks close higher to start Fed week

It was a positive start to Fed week for the main equity indexes. At Monday's close, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 49,412, the broader S&P 500 had added 0.5% to 6,950, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.4% higher at 23,601.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note slipped 1.3 basis points to 3.592%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 2.6 basis points to 4.213%.

Read more: Dow Rises 313 Points to Begin a Big Week

What the January Fed meeting could mean for consumers, according to Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel expects the January Fed meeting to be "somewhat uneventful."

The Fed cut rates three times to end 2025 in response to a weakening labor market and recent guidance suggests the central bank wants to assess the impact of those cuts before it makes any additional moves, he explains.

While a pause may be disappointing to consumers, Zureick says that there is some good news. "At last month's meeting, 15 of 19 FOMC participants projected that at least one more 0.25% rate cut will be appropriate this year," he says. "Most economists expect that inflation should continue to progress toward the Fed's 2% target throughout 2026, which should allow the Fed to bring rates down a bit more without fear that easier monetary policy could lead to higher inflation."

Forecasts project two more quarter-point rate cuts, which Zureick believes is "reasonable given the current economic environment."

The economist notes that the appointment of a new Fed chair is one dynamic that could "alter the course of policy this year." And while it's unclear who President Trump will choose, Zureick points out that the common theme among the potential candidates "is that they are all somewhat supportive of continued rate cuts."

Still, consumers hoping to consolidate high-interest loans or refinance high-rate mortgages may not find relief from the Fed.

While the central bank "controls short-term interest rates, longer-term loans like mortgages are benchmarked to longer-term interest rates, which take their cues less from monetary policy and more from the overall health of the economy," Zureick explains. "If the economy continues to hold up, longer-term interest rates may stay elevated even if the Fed elects to cut rates a couple more times this year."

- Karee Venema

Futures are mixed ahead of FOMC meeting

Equity index futures suggested a mixed open about 45 minutes before the opening bell on Tuesday, the first day of the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2026.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are in the green, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is being weighed down by UnitedHealth Group (UNH).

UNH reported beat on earnings, missed on revenue and offered soft guidance. That's on top of the Trump administration proposing a lighter-than-expected increase in 2027 Medicare Advantage payments.

Meanwhile, as BofA Securities analysts Mark Cabana, Aditya Bhave and Alex Cohen observe, "The U.S. rates market expects little from the January FOMC meeting."

The analysts note the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) market is pricing just one basis point of rate-cut risk, while CME FedWatch shows a 97.2% probability the target range for the federal funds rate will remain 3.50% to 3.75% come Wednesday.

Cabana, Bhave and Cohen also see little change in the policy path following the meeting. "We expect Powell to remain strongly data dependent and emphasize a meeting-by-meeting approach," they write.

And, though questions will be asked, discussion of politics is a non-starter. "Chair Powell is likely to get peppered with questions about politics," they write. "He will most likely be asked about the DoJ investigation of his testimony on the Fed building renovations. We expect him to say that he has nothing to add to his January 11 statement."

Nor will the Fed chair explain why he attended oral arguments at the Supreme Court in the case of whether President Trump can fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

The BofA analysts suggest that Powell will probably be asked again whether he plans to stay on as a Fed governor after his term as chair ends: "We do not expect him to show his cards yet."

With President Trump intent on putting as many of his people in place at the Fed and lowering interest rates as soon as possible, a lingering Powell may be where most of any ensuing drama from this week's FOMC meeting lies.

– David Dittman

What will Waller do?

The December Fed meeting, which concluded with a third consecutive 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, was notable for both the number as well as the nature of the dissents from that decision.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who was appointed by President Donald Trump to replace Adriana Kugler and took his seat on the board in September, wanted a 50 bps cut. Two other voters on the 19-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opposed any cut at all.

This time around, the only dissent is likely to come from those who want easier policy interest rates right now, including Miran and perhaps Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller.

The base-case scenario is a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% for the federal funds rate after this FOMC meeting, as Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal notes.

"Waller’s vote could draw particular scrutiny," Timiraos writes. "He is among the candidates Trump is considering to succeed Powell." President Trump has said he won't pick someone who disagrees with him that interest rates should be lower.

Waller is now a long-shot candidate, trailing late-arriving but fast-rising BlackRock (BLK) Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder as well as Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh.

If Waller votes to cut this week, though, the president will like him more. On the other hand, as Timiraos concludes, "A vote with the majority to hold might burnish his credentials as an independent voice but cost him the job."

– David Dittman

Markets are mostly steady at midday

The main U.S. equity indexes were mostly higher at midday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.8% mainly because of UnitedHealth Group (UNH, -18.8%).

The Treasury market is also mixed, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield down to 3.573% from 3.597% on Monday but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.217% from 4.211% and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.823% from 4.805%.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the buck against a basket of currencies made up of the euro, the yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the franc, was down to 96.36 from 97.04.

Investors, traders and speculators are pricing in the prospect of another potential government shutdown in the aftermath of the federal government's aggressive enforcement of immigration laws in Minnesota.

That's on top of questions about central bank independence as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to discuss its policy on interest rates amid persistent inflation and continuing concerns about the labor market.

– David Dittman

Consumers are worried about maximum employment

Inflation is an ever-present concern for consumers and markets as well as makers of monetary policy. For the Fed, however, it forms only one half of a dual mandate.

"Maximum employment" is at least nominally as important as "price stability" for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other voting members of the FOMC.

Some of them have made clear their preference for lower interest rates, citing a softening jobs market as the main threat to sustainable economic growth right now.

The most recent sentiment reading from the Conference Board could provide some fuel for a "get ahead of the curve" argument that acting now will stave off a fuller labor market meltdown.

Indeed, the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 84.5 in January from 94.2 in December, its lowest print since 2014, worse than anything during the COVID-19 pandemic. And it was mostly about jobs.

"The share of consumers saying jobs are 'hard to get' rose to a post-pandemic high," Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein write. "That took the labor differential (plentiful minus hard-to-get) to a post-pandemic low."

That's not the end of the story, of course: "It is always worth taking consumer confidence readings in context and remembering that vibes are not always fully reflected in spending."

Quinlan and Grein conclude with another caveat: "It still bears noting that consumers felt more confident at the height of the pandemic than they do now."

The economists attribute the drop to deterioration in the labor market, noting also that "persistent high cost of living combined with tariffs and foreign interventions are not doing anything to shore up confidence."

– David Dittman

Facts, feelings and data the Fed depends on

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hit a near 12-year low in January. Best to classify this as "anecdata" rather than straight incoming data such as retail sales numbers reported by the Census Bureau.

There is a split in sentiment and behavior, at least as far as the most up-to-date information we have is concerned. There's even a conflict between sentiment indicators.

As Barclays economist Pooja Sriram notes, the Conference Board reading "shows a different signal compared with the January reading of the University of Michigan survey," which was up 3.5 points to 56.4. "The surveys show competing views about the labor market and the overall economy," Sriram adds.

Context for all that includes, of course, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which delayed retail sales reports late in 2025 and into 2026. And what we've seen lately has been a little choppy.

The release of September data was delayed by more than a month, and sales declined 0.1% in October but surged 0.6% in November, as we learned on January 14.

November retail sales exceeded expectations and suggested strong consumer demand. But we won't see retail sales data for January until February 10.

Regular reporting for this high-frequency indicator of consumer demand – which drives about two-thirds of the U.S. economy – is back on track. But messages for the Fed remain mixed and murky.

As Sriram writes, "Intensifying perceptions that jobs are becoming harder to obtain and that overall hiring is slowing have weighed on the overall consumer environment, resulting in the weak labor market outlook."

We'll see whether feelings translate into behavior in mid-February.

– David Dittman

What consumer stocks say about consumers

Here's another piece of data for you to follow when it comes to assessing the big picture: the relative performance of consumer staples stocks.

Yes, people are still spending money. But what are they buying? Is it toothpaste and toilet paper, cigarettes and booze? Or is it Tesla (TSLA) and Tapestry (TPR) for electric cars and iconic clothes?

Generally speaking, when consumer discretionary stocks are near the top of the sector rankings, it's bullish. But when Procter & Gamble (PG) and Altria Group (MO) lead, it's bearish.

Consumer staples underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, 1.7% to 17.7%. Consumer discretionary added 7.4% last year.

So far in 2026, though, consumer staples are up vs the S&P 500, 6.6% to 1.6%. And consumer discretionary is up just 2.4%.

Whether (and the extent to which) the Fed is worried about the consumer remains to be seen. We'll get some answers on Wednesday.

But recent price action suggests we should at least pay attention for a potential broader shift in the stock market.

– David Dittman

Unemployment is low but angst is high

For Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox today's report from the Conference Board about consumers is just another brick in the proverbial wall of worry for the stock market to climb.

"This is one of the most bullish signs I've seen yet," Cox writes. "When GDP is over 3% and consumers say they are worried, yet spend like they aren't, they are, in fact, confident."

Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Eric Teal has a more nuanced view: "The picture for the consumer remains very mixed, with the top earners benefiting from the wealth effect while the bottom 60% of the income distribution is being negatively impacted by policy changes."

Teal cites "shifting tariffs, sticky inflation, and housing affordability." He notes that tighter immigration enforcement means higher wages in some sectors and industries, and he is "cautiously optimistic on the U.S. consumer as tax benefits should be a tailwind in early 2026."

As for why consumers are down even though the unemployment rate remains low relative to historical averages, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti is on the case.

"This disconnect between weaker labor market sentiment and still relatively low unemployment is also observed in the NY Fed’s consumer sentiment survey," Luzzetti says.

It's a recent development too: "While sentiment and unemployment have been highly correlated in the past, sentiment has tracked weak hiring and low labor market churn rather than unemployment over the past 18 months."

The problem, as the people see it, is dynamism and the ability to get a job, according to Luzzetti. "The implication is that consumer sentiment about the labor market – and likely the broader economy – may not turn around until hiring and dynamism improve," he concludes.

– David Dittman

3 reasons the Fed won't cut interest rates this week

The prediction for Wednesday's Fed meeting is for rates to remain unchanged. There are three reasons for this.

First, comments from a number of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at the last meeting in December indicated that there was a desire to stop the "cut at every meeting" trend.

Second, GDP growth predictions for 2026 have been moving up of late as economists note still strong consumer spending and likely bigger tax refunds this spring.

The Fed doesn't want to cut interest rates in the face of a strengthening economy unless the unemployment rate is rising. But that hasn't happened yet.

Finally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly pushed back against the administration in a speech two weeks ago, accusing it of pressuring the central bank to lower interest rates.

A rate cut this early after that would be interpreted as doing the White House's bidding, and the Fed has always jealously guarded its independence.

– David Payne

When Fed meetings move market

Investors, traders and speculators are more than 97% certain the target range for the federal funds rate will remain 3.50% to 3.75% at the conclusion of this week's Fed meeting.

But markets will be watching Jerome Powell's press conference, the first since the Department of Justice subpoenaed central bank officials and one of the last before he's replaced as Fed chair. And they will be moving.

The San Francisco Fed has built a new database on intraday reactions to FOMC meetings that, as Deutsche Bank strategist Matthew Raskin writes, allows us to see "which meeting aspects tend to be most market moving."

The database includes changes in U.S. Treasury yields and prices of other financial assets in 30-minute windows around Federal Open Market Committee statements and Summary of Economic Projections releases and 70-minute windows around the Fed chair’s press conferences.

Raksin compares the relative volatility impact on yields of FOMC statements and SEP release vs press conferences since 2019. He defines "relative volatility" as the "difference between the absolute yield moves in the press conference and statement windows."

As Raskin notes, "For non-SEP meetings like tomorrow's, volatility around the press conference is on average higher than volatility around the statement." The pattern flips for SEP meetings, with volatility around the statement higher.

"The underlying data reveals that the shift reflects an increase in volatility around statements when the SEP is published," he concludes, "as the projections convey additional information on the Fed rate path."

Raskin also cites "evidence that the SEP modestly reduces front-end volatility around press conferences, perhaps because the projections provide some anchor to near-term expectations that attenuate reactions to the chair’s comments."

– David Dittman

Markets are mixed on the first day of the Fed meeting

Stocks closed mixed on the first day of the first Fed meeting of 2026, the S&P 500 rising 0.4% and hitting new all-time highs and the Nasdaq Composite rallying 0.9% with multiple Magnificent 7 stocks reporting earnings this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, weighed down by UnitedHealth Group (UNH, -19.6%), lost 0.8%.

The Treasury market was also mixed, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield down to 3.571% from 3.597% on Monday but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.233% from 4.211% and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.842% from 4.805%.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the buck against a basket of currencies made up of the euro, the yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the franc, was down to 95.53 from 97.04.

Looking ahead to Wednesday's conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates notes that nobody expects any change in the federal funds rate.

"Jerome Powell is essentially a lame duck as we wait to hear who Trump will select to replace him in May," Navellier writes "which is expected soon." Fed funds futures pricing indicates the market doesn't see another move to lower interest rates until June.

Investors, traders and speculators will pay close attention to the Fed chair's press conference. "If Powell gives any indication that a cut may come before he leaves," Navellier says, "the market will rally."

Navellier adds that if the Fed "is looking for a reason to cut key interest rates, it appeared on Tuesday when the Conference Board announced that consumer confidence plunged in January."

Citing its new role as an exporter of energy, gold and pharmaceuticals as well as the blessings of the AI boom, including rising productivity, Navellier says "6% GDP growth will be possible" for the U.S. without adding to inflation.

"Deflation is the only risk that can potentially derail America and the world," Navellier concludes. "It will be the job of the new Fed chair to fight deflation and to spur consumer spending with lower interest rates."

– David Dittman

Stock futures are mostly higher on Fed Day

Stock futures are mostly in the green ahead of this afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. At last check, futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq were up 0.8% and futures on the broader S&P 500 were 0.2% higher as strong earnings from semiconductor equipment company ASML Holding (ASML) lift chip stocks.

Futures on the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average are slightly lower.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury is up 0.6 basis point at 3.575% and the 10-year Treasury yield is 2.4 basis points higher at 4.247%.

- Karee Venema

Questions over Fed independence remain front and center, says GammaRoad Capital CIO

It's all but guaranteed that today's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged and it's unlikely that Chair Powell will signal any additional cuts for the two remaining meetings he'll head.

"Unless the Fed delivers a surprisingly dovish tone to forward guidance, we believe this meeting will only serve to amplify the recent political pressure on the Fed's independence," says Jordan Rizzuto, CIO at GammaRoad Capital Partners. "Given that the next rate decision is two months away, this leaves ample time for increased rhetoric against the backdrop of deteriorating consumer sentiment driven by a softer labor market, persistently above-target inflation and the resulting affordability challenges facing the American public."

Rizzuto expects this elevated rhetoric puts the premium that U.S. assets have commanded over time at risk. "Increased expectations for a more dovish and less independent Fed would likely drive further weakness in the dollar, higher rates at the long end of the curve, and renewed concerns for an uptick in inflation," he adds.

- Karee Venema

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, January 28.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace," the committee wrote in its December statement. "Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated."

As such, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

This time around, Goldman Sachs economists expect small changes to the statement. "The FOMC might remove the comment from December that inflation 'has moved up since earlier in the year' while continuing to note that it 'remains somewhat elevated,'" the group writes. "It might also add balance to the description of the unemployment rate, perhaps keeping that it 'has edged up' but adding that it 'remains low.'"

And while the December meeting had three central bankers dissent, Goldman Sachs expects only one this time, from outgoing Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who they believe will vote for a rate cut.

- Karee Venema

What time does Jerome Powell speak today?

Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, January 28.

"Given recent events, Powell's presser is likely to focus on some non-economic issues – e.g., the recent DoJ subpoena, Governor Cook's case, who will be the next Fed chair, and whether Powell might remain on the Board," write a team of Deutsche Bank economists.

The team believes Powell will likely respond to any questions over the Justice Department investigation by referring to his January 11 video statement, where he responded to the accusations by saying, "threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

There's a good chance he will not comment on questions related to his successor and whether or not he will remain on the Fed's board through January 2028.

The group also expects Chair Powell to describe monetary policy as "well positioned," given that the current range of the federal funds rate, 3.50% to 3.75%, is close to neutral.

"He might also sound somewhat more sanguine on the labor market, while still emphasizing downside risks," the economists add.

- Karee Venema

S&P 500 briefly tops 7,000 before turning lower

With roughly 90 minutes left until the Fed releases its latest policy announcement, the main market indexes aren't making any major moves.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was last seen up 0.07% as UnitedHealth Group (UNH) trades higher following Tuesday's 20% drop.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is off 0.06%, while the broader S&P 500 is down 0.1% after it briefly topped the psychologically significant 7,000 level for the first time earlier.

Health care is the worst-performing sector at midday, while energy stocks lead as U.S. crude futures trade up 0.4% at $62.65 per barrel.

- Karee Venema

Another near certainty today: Powell's purple tie

The odds of that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged today are high. It's also a near-certainty that Fed Chair Powell will be wearing a purple tie during Wednesday's press conference.

That's because Powell always wears a purple tie … and there's a reason for it.

During an early April Q&A session with journalists at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference, Powell was asked about the significance of his purple ties.

"At the beginning, the only significance was that I like purple ties," Powell replied. At his next press conference, he said he went to reach for a red or blue tie and thought, "Maybe not … so I wind up wearing purple."

He said now it's become "a thing," and it supports the fact that the Fed "is strictly non-political" and "bipartisan," and purple is a good color for that.

"Plus, I like purple ties," Powell concluded.

- Karee Venema

Where can I watch Fed Chair Powell's press conference?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

The Fed decision is in

The Federal Reserve stood pat in January, keeping the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected.

Sticky inflation and a stabilizing labor market keep the Fed on hold

Everything you need to know is in the opening sentence of the Fed's statement: "Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."

In other words, the economy is growing solidly and inflation remains a concern, so the central bank is not cutting. Additionally, the Fed is not as worried about the labor market right now because it appears to be stabilizing and not getting weaker.

- David Payne

What changed in the January FOMC statement?

Changes to the FOMC's latest policy statement include the following:

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. (Previously read: Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.)

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. (Previously read: The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.)

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. (Previously read: In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent.)

The committee also removed this section that was in the December statement: The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.

- Karee Venema

Powell starts talking

Powell has begun his press conference. As is typical, he's wearing a purple tie to address the press.

Powell says it was important to attend oral arguments in the Supreme Court case on Trump's attempts to fire Lisa cook

The first question Chair Powell received was why he attended Supreme Court arguments over President Trump's attempts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Powell refused to answer, except to say he attended because it was important, and he would have had to explain if he didn't go.

He also added that Paul Volcker attended oral arguments in a 1985 Supreme Court hearing.

-David Payne

Powell refuses to answer questions on the DOJ investigation and staying on the board

Powell also refused to answer questions about the current Department of Justice investigation into his congressional testimony from last June, referring reporters to his January 11 video statement. He also said he will not answer any questions as to whether he will remain on the Fed board when his term as chair is up in May.

- David Payne

Powell says there was broad support among FOMC members to hold this time around

There was broad support among committee members at the January meeting for holding and waiting, says Powell.

Following three straight quarter-point rate cuts at the end of 2025, the FOMC, overall, believes it's in a good place to evaluate developments of this easing.

- David Payne

Powell's take on inflation

Regarding inflation, Powell says that most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs, but, he adds, that's good news. This is because these one-time price hikes will work their way through the data and eventually not be counted in the 12-month inflation rate.

He adds that it's encouraging to see that long-term inflation expectations are not moving up. This would be worrisome to the Fed if they were.

- David Payne

It's a great time for savers to capitalize on higher rates for 2026

With the Fed refraining from rate cuts, now is the time to find the right savings accounts to reach your savings goals in 2026. If you have short-term benchmarks, some of the best high-yield savings accounts I found offer up to 4.35% APY with no fees.

It allows you to earn a rate that outpaces inflation, before potential rate cuts later this year, since they could still lower rates in the interim on HYSAs. In turn, it can help you build momentum towards achieving your goals for the rest of the year.

Read more: The Best High-Yield Savings Accounts

- Sean Jackson

Powell gives one answer on politics

To kick off the press conference, Powell shut down five different questions related to politics. But he did answer one, from ABC News' Elizabeth Schulze, who asked him, broadly speaking, to explain the importance of keeping central banks separate from politics.

Clarifying that he was talking about central banks globally, Powell said that it's been positive "to not have direct elected official control over the setting on monetary policy" because elected officials could use monetary policy to affect the economy to better serve them during elections.

The separation, he said, has "enabled central banks generally not to be perfect, but to serve the public well."

Asked if he believes the Fed remains separate from politicians, he said it does, adding that "I'm strongly committed to that and so are my colleagues."

- Alexandra Svokos

Powell says a softening labor market is being balanced by a strong economy

When asked about the labor market, Powell said that it has definitely softened. However, it's hard to tell how much of the decline is a result of labor demand and how much is due to lower immigration levels reducing supply.

Powell admits that while this is concerning, there has not been a significant worsening. Additionally, the softening labor market is being balanced by solid economic growth and consumer spending.

- David Payne

Chair Powell talks geopolitical risk

Chair Powell would not answer a question on geopolitical risk, saying it's not the central bank's position to do so. Rather, the Fed focuses on oil price volatility and changes in trade policy.

He does say that the economy has done better than expected on trade changes. This is because the policies enacted were better than feared, and the economy is adjusting to the initial changes. Additionally, other countries did not retaliate.

- David Payne

Powell offers advice to the next Fed chair

While refusing to give specific commentary on his potential replacement, Chair Powell did offer some advice. In addition to staying out of politics, Powell reminded the next Fed chair that their accountability is to Congress and maintaining this accountability will keep them legitimate to the American people.

He also noted that the Fed staff is excellent.

- David Payne

There's still the potential for rate cuts this year, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged this time around, noting "solid" economic growth and a "stabilization" in the labor market, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel.

With no update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed's quarterly outlook for the future path of monetary policy and economic data, due until March, "consumers are left with little guidance about how the path of interest rates may evolve over the remainder of the year," Zureick says, though he adds that the two dissents in favor of another quarter-point rate cut show there's still support for additional easing.

The economist says that going forward, the path of interest rates will be dependent on the trajectory of the economy, specifically, inflation and the labor market.

"Ultimately, the Fed has adopted more of a 'wait-and-see' approach to monetary policy," Zureick explains. "While consumers didn't get the immediate interest rate relief they may have been hoping for, there is still the potential for modest rate cuts later this year."

- Karee Venema

Stocks are basically flat on Fed Day

The S&P 500 crossed the psychologically significant 7,000 level for the first time ever but trended lower into the Fed's decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Stocks were up and down for much of Wednesday's trading session and closed mixed amid a recovery for a big health care stock and solid signals from multiple AI stocks.

"The Fed song remains the same," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner writes. "Lower interest rates may be coming, but investors will have to remain patient."

"With signs of stabilization in the labor market and inflation holding steady," the economist observes, "the Fed is in position to play the 'wait-and-see' game."

Read more: S&P 500 Tops 7,000, Fed Pauses Rate Cuts