Warren Buffett famously quipped that diversification is for people who don't know what they're doing. Judging by the explosive growth of S&P 500 ETFs over the past few decades, millions of investors are perfectly fine playing dumb — and their retirement accounts are thanking them for it.

After all, beating the market year after year is incredibly hard. Even Warren Buffett couldn't do it consistently. He's considered the GOAT of long-term investing for good reason. Between 1964 and 2024, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) delivered an overall gain of more than 5,500,000%, or a compound annual gain of nearly 20%. By comparison, the S&P 500, the main benchmark for U.S. stocks, gained 39,000% and 10%, respectively.

Doubling the performance of the broader market over a six-decade span is an investing feat that may never be repeated. And yet, Berkshire stock still trailed the S&P 500 in 20 of those years, once by as much as 40 percentage points.

Needless to say, most professionals come nowhere close to Buffett's run. Actively managed mutual funds have a poor track record when it comes to beating their benchmarks. Over the past 20 years, 93% of U.S. large-cap stock funds lagged the performance of the S&P 500, according to S&P Global.

There are a lot of reasons that most portfolio managers can't beat the market, but perhaps the most important is that most stocks can't beat the market.

Between 1990 and 2020, more than 55% of all U.S. stocks underperformed risk-free, one-month U.S. Treasury bills, according to Hendrik Bessembinder, professor of finance at Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business. These stocks didn't just lag the S&P 500; they failed to beat cash.

Even more distressing, the entirety of the $76 trillion in net global stock market wealth created over that three-decade period was generated solely by the top-performing 2.4% of stocks.

As Vanguard founder Jack Bogle liked to say: "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!"

It took a while for the investing masses to embrace Bogle's advice, but passive investing finally came into its own. In 2006, S&P 500 ETFs collectively held about $80 billion in assets under management. Today, that figure stands at about $2.7 trillion.

Thanks to their low fees — and a remarkably resilient secular bull market — investors who've settled for "merely" market-matching returns have had a strong run these past 20 years.

The bottom line on S&P 500 ETFs?

Although the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is the largest S&P 500 ETF by assets under management, it didn't begin trading until 2010. Therefore, we're going to go with the granddaddy of them all — the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — to see what broad exposure to U.S. equities has done for buy-and-hold types these past two decades.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you'd put $1,000 into the SPY 20 years ago, it would today be worth more than $8,500. That's good for an annualized return of 11.2%. (The S&P 500's total return — price change plus reinvested dividends — came to 11.3% over the same span. S&P 500 ETFs trail their benchmark because of fees and cash drag from unpaid dividends.)

Since 1928, the market's rolling 20-year compounded annual returns have been as high as 17.7% (1980-1999) and as low as 2.6% (1929-1948), according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

"The fate of the next 20 years for the S&P 500 is largely reliant on the development of artificial intelligence and whatever innovations come after it, and the ability for U.S. companies to generate substantial profit from these technologies," he notes. "We remain optimistic and are long-term bulls on U.S. large-cap stocks."

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Longtime shareholders in Micron Technology (MU) used to be longtime sufferers. Not anymore.

The company for decades plodded along in the volatile, low-margin business of making computer memory chips. That's a tough racket. Chips are a commodity. They're cyclical. Meanwhile, chipmakers have to constantly plow cash into research and development — to say nothing of capital expenditures — just to keep pace with peers.

Micron escaped its formerly poky past thanks to the era of artificial intelligence (AI). The ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure isn't just creating massive demand for specialized chips from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA); it's also fueling a run on companies that supply storage. Demand for Micron's wares — Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM), NAND Flash memory, Solid-State Drives (SSDs) and Ultra High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) – has absolutely exploded.

The once-ugly duckling is now a swan. And with shares up more than 850% over the past year, MU stock is no longer a long-term laggard. Indeed, it's been an improbably good bet for truly patient investors.

The lone major American computer memory manufacturer is one of the industry's "Big Three." It competes on the global stage with South Korean heavyweights Samsung (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL). And business has never been better.

That's not too shabby for a company that was founded in the late 1970s in the basement of a dental office in Boise. Along the way, Micron helped lead the way in the development of memory chips, demonstrating a particular strength in increasing density. With more than 60,000 patents, it's an engineering powerhouse.

But the grim realities of relentless R&D and capital expenditures in an industry where chip prices regularly plummet made Micron a tough stock to love. Anyone who couldn't stomach prolonged drawdowns of anywhere from 40% to 70% did not belong in the name.

The bottom line on MU stock?

Micron's red-hot run has done wonders for its returns over every standardized investing period you care to look at. For its entire life as a publicly traded company, MU generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of almost 21%. That beats the S&P 500 by about 11 percentage points.

More recent results are simply stupendous. Over the past three years, MU returned 133% vs 23% for the broader market. The five-, 10- and 15-year return periods delivered massive outperformance as well.

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in Micron stock 20 years ago would be worth today.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that a thousand bucks invested in MU two decades ago would today amount to almost $57,000. That's good for an annualized return of nearly 23%.

By comparison, the same sum socked away in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth about $8,600 today – or 11.4% annualized.

Will the good times keep rolling for this darling of an AI play? Wall Street sure thinks so.

"This is the memory bottleneck trade where the company can't nearly supply the backlog of orders," writes David Miller, chief investment officer at Catalyst Funds. "AI workloads need a huge amount of high bandwidth memory and storage. Micron gives you a way to play that part of the AI buildout at a reasonable forward earnings multiple."

Miller's views are widely shared. Of the 44 analysts covering MU stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 39 rate it at Strong Buy, nine say Buy and four call it a Hold. One analyst rates it at Strong Sell. Nevertheless, that works out to a consensus recommendation of Strong Buy, with high conviction to boot.

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Mastercard (MA) shareholders might not be too thrilled with the stock's more recent run, but few names have treated buy-and-hold investors to better returns over the long haul.

The world's second-largest payments processor has lost some of its luster over the past few years, but that's more to do with the legal and regulatory landscape than the company's operations. Threats to Mastercard's duopoly with Visa (V) are overblown, bulls say, and shares are priced for future outperformance for patient investors.

Buy-and-hold types who've been in the blue chip stock for ages can attest to Mastercard's strength. And while its competitive moat might not be quite as wide as it once was, the company's global brand remains as powerful as ever.

That's no small feat. A firm that was launched more than 50 years ago by a consortium of regional banks to compete with Visa today operates in more than 210 countries and territories. Nearly 40 million businesses accept Mastercard credit cards, of which there are 3 billion in circulation.

Payments processors aren't all that sexy, but Mastercard has indeed notched some nifty wins for capitalism. In the 1980s, the company issued the first international payment card in the People's Republic of China, as well as in what was then the Soviet Union.

Mastercard also has a history of innovation in security features, pioneering the now-standard practice of putting laser-etched holograms on cards. Later, it spearheaded the global rollout of the chip technology that today makes cards far more secure.

But investors were best served by the company's transition from a bank-owned cooperative to a publicly listed company in 2006. Anyone who invested in Mastercard during those early post-IPO days should have no problem paying off their purchases.

True, shares are lagging the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the past year or so. MA hasn't kept up with the broader market over the past half-decade either. Partly, that's a function of the way the tech sector — and all things related to artificial intelligence (AI) — have soared since ChatGPT debuted at the end of 2022.

MA is also contending with industrywide concerns. Persistent scrutiny of swipe fees has been a headwind for years. And now, the bipartisan Credit Card Competition Act of 2026 threatens Mastercard and Visa's lucrative duopoly. Calls to cap interest charges, while unworkable, are also spooking investors. (Shares in Visa have likewise underperformed the market for years now.)

You can see these anxieties playing out in Mastercard's valuation. Shares currently trade at less than 22 times estimated earnings. That's 20% lower than their five- and 10-year averages. A stock that once commanded hefty premiums thanks to its high operating margins (nearly 60%) and wide competitive moat has been repriced to reflect rising risks.

Interestingly, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) sold its stakes in both Mastercard and Visa during the first quarter of 2026. The payments processors had been a couple of Warren Buffett's favorite stocks since 2011. Apparently, CEO Greg Abel, who is now calling the shots, sees things differently. Make of that what you will.

The bottom line on MA stock?

As noted above, Mastercard stock has been disappointing for more recent investors. Shares lag the broader market on an annualized total return basis (price change plus dividends) over the past one-, three- and five-year periods. Heck, over the past 52 weeks, MA stock is off about 4% vs a 30% gain for the S&P 500.

Beyond those recent periods, however, the returns have been priceless.

Over the past decade, MA stock leads the broader market by almost 3 percentage points. Over the past 15-year period, it beats the S&P 500 by more than 7 points.

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in Mastercard stock 20 years ago would be worth today. Spoiler alert: a lot.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that a thousand bucks invested in MA stock two decades ago would today amount to almost $121,000. That's good for an annualized return of more than 27%.

By comparison, the same sum socked away in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth about $8,600 today – or 11.4% annualized.

That's remarkable outperformance. Happily for bulls, Wall Street analysts think Mastercard is priced to resume its winning ways.

"Solid quarterly earnings again underscored the resilience of MA's operating model amid a more mixed payments and macro backdrop," writes BofA Securities analyst Matthew O'Neill, who rates shares at Buy. "The underlying constant currency demand outlook remains intact, supporting confidence in Mastercard's long-term earnings durability and capital return profile."

O'Neill has plenty of company on the Street. Of the 39 analysts covering MA stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 29 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy and three call it a Hold. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Strong Buy, with high conviction to boot.

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Target (TGT) is one of the oldest and most iconic brands in American retail, but shares in the national discount chain have been a bad buy-and-hold bet for ages.

The big-box chain that came to define the concept of "cheap chic" traces its roots to a single family-owned department store in the early days of the 20th century. Six decades later, a rapidly expanding middle class in the midst of the baby boom drove consumer demand for one-stop shopping at value prices. It's no coincidence that Target shifted to a discount format at the same time that Walmart (WMT) and K-Mart entered the market.

A merger and decades of expansion set Target up to be the comparatively upscale alternative to Walmart during the heyday of big-box chains at the end of the 20th century. Whereas Walmart's slogan was "Always Low Prices, Always," Target led with "Expect More. Pay Less."

By the beginning of the 21st century, the Minneapolis-based chain was a certified national retail behemoth. And then things started to go wrong.

The onslaught of Amazon.com (AMZN) and other e-commerce companies took a toll on all brick-and-mortar retailers. Chronic underinvestment in its digital strategy caused Target to fall far behind Walmart in the rapidly growing channel. Today, Walmart is the second-largest U.S. e-commerce retailer after Amazon – albeit a distant second. Target, meanwhile, ranks fifth.

A massive data breach in 2013 that exposed the financial information of as many as 110 million Target customers certainly did the company no favors. Even worse was Target's abortive expansion into Canada. The foray, which lasted only two years, ended in 2015 with the company shuttering 133 stores and taking a $5.4 billion quarterly loss.

Target's product mix also makes it more sensitive to economic ups and downs. Where Walmart's and Costco's (COST) top lines benefit from consumer staples that tend to hold up better when consumer spending slows down, Target depends more on discretionary items. Food, toilet paper and diapers are more recession-proof than apparel and consumer electronics.

More recently, Target's margins have been hampered by shrink – the loss of inventory due to theft, damage or administrative error – and tariffs. A decade ago, the company enjoyed gross profit margins north of 27%, or more than two percentage points higher than they run today.

It should come as no surprise that a turbulent couple of decades haven't been great for TGT stock.

The bottom line on TGT stock?

True, Target is a dividend-raising machine. Equity income investors have seen their payouts rise annually for more than five decades. As a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, there's no doubt that TGT is one of the best dividend stocks for dependable dividend growth.

Sadly, a poor track record of price appreciation wipes out the benefit those dividends contributed to shareholders' total returns.

For its entire life as a publicly traded company, Target generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of just 5.4%. That lags the S&P 500 by more than 5 percentage points.

And while the consumer staples stock is up 38% over the past 52 weeks – vs 31% for the broader market – every other standard time frame is a dud. Shares in TGT generated negative total returns over the past three- and five-year periods. As for the past 10- and 15-year periods, TGT lags the S&P 500 by wide margins.

Which brings us to what you'd have if you invested a grand in TGT stock a couple of decades ago.

Spoiler alert: not nearly enough.

Take a look at the chart above and you'll see that if you put $1,000 into TGT stock 20 years ago, it would be worth about $3,900 today. That's good for an annualized total return of 7%.

The same sum sitting in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund over the past two decades would be worth almost $8,000 today, or 10.8% annualized.

There's no way around it: Target has been a buy-and-hold bust for truly long-term investors.

As for where TGT stock goes over the next 12 months or so, Wall Street is very much split on the name. Of the 37 analysts covering the stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 9 call it a Strong Buy, two say Buy, 23 have it at Hold and three rate it at Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Hold.

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Shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) have been a long-term market beater, but there's a twist. The fast-casual food chain is a great example of what happens when a company's days of hyperfast growth have long passed.

Like McDonald's (MCD), CMG claims humble origins, starting with a single location. The first Chipotle opened in Denver in 1993 and it quickly became a hit. Founder Steve Ellis's focus on high-quality and fresh ingredients served in a fast-food format was revolutionary at the time.

The fast-casual restaurant concept was born.

Within five years, the chain operated 16 locations spread around Colorado. McDonald's – game knows game – was a minority investor. MCD's injection of capital allowed Chipotle to expand rapidly, further whetting the burger chain's appetite. Pretty soon, MCD became CMG's majority owner. By 2005, Chipotle was a national phenomenon with 500 restaurants across 25 states.

At this point, it was time for McDonald's to cash out. The CMG investment, while lucrative, was a distraction from the company's core fast-food business model. And so McDonald's spun off Chipotle Mexican Grill in an initial public offering for the ages. CMG went public in January 2006 at a price of $22 a share. It closed at $44, or a 100% gain in its first trading session.

Traders and investors would continue to enjoy outsized gains for years as the company's expansion and national impact only seemed to accelerate. Even the Great Recession couldn't slow the chain down. Indeed, the value proposition of fast-casual dining attracted cash-strapped customers away from pricier sit-down restaurants.

By 2015, Chipotle had more than 2,000 locations across 48 states. The stock was up 1,500% from the IPO closing price. And then a near-disaster struck. Shares lost almost half their value over the next two years amid multiple outbreaks of food-borne illnesses. It turned out that fresh ingredients also carried the risk of making customers violently ill from E. coli and Norovirus.

The consumer discretionary stock eventually rebounded and went on another spectacular run, but more recent returns have been disappointing. Investors were no longer willing to pay a hefty premium when growth began to slow. A stock that once traded as high as 50 to 80 times earnings estimates saw its multiple collapse by half. CMG found itself branded by some as a fading giant.

The bottom line on CMG stock?

Have a look at the below chart and you'll see that truly long-term investors in CMG are sitting on market-beating returns. As for shorter time frames, however, the results are not good.

True, for its entire life as a publicly traded company, CMG, which doesn't pay a dividend, generated an annualized total return of 19.8%. That beats the S&P 500's annualized total return (price change plus dividends) by 9 percentage points. That's a big deal.

Unfortunately, other time frames are not nearly so remunerative.

The large-cap stock lags the S&P 500 over the past one-, three-, five-, 10- and 15-year periods. Indeed, over the past 52 weeks, CMG lost more than 30% vs a gain of more than 30% for the broader market.

The past two decades have been much more kind. If you put $1,000 into CMG stock 20 years ago, it would be worth about $32,000 today. That's good for an annualized total return of 18.9%.

The same sum socked away into an S&P 500 index fund over the past two decades would be worth almost $8,000 today, or 11% annualized.

CMG stock has been a terrific buy-and-hold bet, but it appears to be heading in the wrong direction. Its days of hyperfast growth are behind it.

As for where CMG stock goes from here over the next 12 months or so, Wall Street is bullish on the name. Of the 38 analysts covering the stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 22 call it a Strong Buy, four say Buy and 12 have it at Hold. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy with high conviction.

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If anything is as American as baseball, hot dogs and apple pie, it's got to be Ford Motor (F).

The legendary car company gave us everything from the Model T to the Mustang to the F-150 pickup truck. During World War II, doing its part in the Arsenal of Democracy, Ford shifted to military production, churning out B-24 bombers.

Few enterprises have such a proud and illustrious past. Unfortunately for long-time Ford shareholders, the company's glory days look very much to be a 20th century story.

Thanks to the explosive popularity of its Explorer SUVs and F-Series trucks, Ford was the most profitable automaker in the world – back in 1999. The stock hit its all-time high that year. It hasn't come close to recovering ever since.

True, the past 20 years have rewarded nimble capital-light companies over plodding, capex-intensive firms like car manufacturers. The global auto market has changed dramatically, too, with greater competition from overseas entrants and the emergence of electric vehicles.

But Ford has also suffered plenty of self-inflicted wounds.

Although the company famously avoided a bailout by the federal government during the Great Recession, it had to mortgage nearly all of its assets in order to stay liquid.

Then there's Ford's long-running issues with manufacturing quality. The company regularly leads all U.S. automakers in total recalls. Not only does that do damage to the brand, but it's a financial headache, as well. In 2024, Ford blew $2 billion in a single quarter on an unexpected spike in warranty costs.

In another wallop, Ford's EV strategy has been a disaster. Declining sales for models such as the F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E led the company's EV division to report a loss of nearly $5 billion in 2025. Ford expects the division to lose another $4 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026.

Adding insult to injury, Ford expects tariffs on steel and aluminum to cut operating income by almost $2 billion annually.

Oh, and the balance sheet is bloated, too. Ford's consumer financing business comprises about 85% of the company's massive debt load. With more than $160 billion in total debt, Ford stock's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 4.54. That's up from 2.84 five years ago, and it tends to make shareholders nervous. Higher and potentially volatile interest costs makes it harder to model future earnings.

The bottom line on Ford stock

As you may have guessed by now, Ford stock has been a big-time market laggard for a very long time.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, the consumer discretionary stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of just 3.6%. The S&P 500 delivered an annualized total return of 10.6% over the same span.

It's pretty much the same story over the past three-, five-, 10-, and 15-year periods. Ford stock lags the broader market, and by wide margins.

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in Ford stock two decades ago would be worth today. Spoiler alert: it's ugly.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you put a grand into Ford 20 years ago, today it would be worth about $2,900. That's an annualized total return of just 5.4%. The same sum invested in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth about $7,300, or 10.5% annualized.

Where does Ford stock go from here? Wall Street is pretty cool on the name, giving it a consensus recommendation of Hold. Of the 22 analysts covering F stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, two rate it at Strong Buy, three say Buy, 16 rate it at Hold and one calls it at Strong Sell.

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The price of Costco Wholesale's (COST) $1.50 hot dog and soda combo hasn't budged for decades. Happily, the same can't be said for the price of COST stock.

Shares in the nation's third-largest retailer have outperformed the broader market by wide margins for a very long time.

Costco's origins trace back to a single warehouse store in 1980s Seattle. The company we know today emerged after a merger with a competitor in the mid-90s. By the early 21st century, Costco's secret sauce of membership fees, high inventory turnover and Kirkland private-label products was already in place.

The importance of the membership model is hard to overstate. This recurring source of revenue not only accounts for about two-thirds of Costco's operating profit, but it also provides a predictable source of cash flow. As such, the company has a financial buffer in the often volatile world of retail sales.

Membership fees also allow Costco to sell its goods at very close to cost. Meanwhile, low prices are a key to customer retention — and they very much work. Membership renewal rates have topped 90% for ages.

Then there's Costco's focus on offering far fewer items, or stock keeping units (SKUs), than the typical supermarket. Rather than carrying, say, 30,000 SKUs, Costco has only about 4,000.

A low number of SKUs allows Costco to turn over its inventory quickly. That sort of efficiency — as well as massive sales of private-label products — boosts gross margins.

For example, in the past decade, Costco's top line has grown at an annual average rate of 10%, but operating earnings have chugged along at more than 12%. That sort of efficiency is typically rewarded by patient investors.

At the same time, COST has been good to the equity-income crowd. The company is one of the best dividend stocks for dependable dividend growth, having raised its payout annually for more than two decades, and at a compound annual growth rate of more than 12%. Costco also likes to splurge on the occasional special dividend or defensive stock buyback.

Today, in an industry increasingly threatened by e-commerce, the company operates more than 900 warehouses worldwide. In addition to the cheap hot dogs and soda, loyalists love the retailer's value proposition and its "treasure hunt" shopping experience.

In other words, Costco is a warehouse club with a moat.

The bottom line on Costco stock

Costco's retail formula has generated outstanding returns for buy-and-hold investors. Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, the consumer staples stock has generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of more than 12%. That beats the S&P 500 by about 2 percentage points.

The stock has also outperformed the broader market — and by wide margins — in the past three-, five-, 10- and 15-year periods.

Which brings us to what you'd have if you put $1,000 into Costco stock 20 years ago.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 into COST two decades ago, it would today be worth about $26,000. That's good for an annualized total return of 17.7%.

The same sum invested in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth about $7,400, or 10.5% annualized.

As for where COST goes from here, Wall Street is fairly bullish on the name. Of the 37 analysts covering Costco surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 20 rate it at Strong Buy, three say Buy, 12 have it at Hold and one rates it a Strong Sell.

Speaking for the bulls, Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh cites the company's "unique and improving" value proposition, "open-ended" global growth potential and consistent track record of shareholder returns.

"Looking forward, we still see the potential for a special dividend and/or a stock split, which could represent positive catalysts for shares," writes Parikh, who rates COST at Outperform (the equivalent of Buy).

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As the world's largest manufacturer of heavy construction and mining equipment, Caterpillar (CAT) has long been seen as a bellwether for the global economy. Happily for long-term shareholders, CAT's returns have greatly outpaced the global economy – and U.S. stock market – for decades.

Caterpillar's outperformance in the 21st century was never a foregone conclusion. If anything, a company founded a century ago to supply tractors for delta farmers and New Deal works projects should be about as old-economy as they come.

It's not. Caterpillar has spent the past two decades navigating massive cyclical changes to the global economy very much to shareholders' benefit. For example, few firms gained more from the China-led commodities supercycle of the early 2000s.

On the other hand, CAT could have had better timing when it acquired mining equipment giant Bucyrus International near the top of the cycle in 2011. The hangover from the end of the boom was a headwind for shares for a good 10 years.

However, it also forced CAT to double down on finding operational efficiencies, like expanding its parts and maintenance business. Services carry higher profit margins than sales of earthmoving equipment and diesel-electric locomotives.

The biggest driver of recent returns – and expanding multiples – is Caterpillar's emergence as a huge bet on the build-out of artificial intelligence. Indeed, CAT isn't a tractor company anymore; it's a very 21st-century critical infrastructure and energy play.

The AI era has created massive demand for the construction of data centers and the energy needed to power them. Rising prices for commodities, especially copper and lithium, have led mining companies to upgrade their equipment with Caterpillar's latest offerings.

And in another techy twist, Caterpillar even has a recurring revenue stream. Thanks to the Internet of Things (IoT), Caterpillar can make sure its legions of customers buy parts and services only from its own dealer network.

That said, stocks never go up in a straight line, and that's certainly been true of this Buy-rated Dow Jones stock.

The bottom line on Caterpillar stock

Long-time CAT shareholders are used to the cyclical nature of this bluest of blue-chip industrial stocks. Besides, periods of underwhelming performance always came with a reliable and rising dividend. As a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, Caterpillar is one of the best dividend stocks for dependable dividend growth.

At any rate, buy-and-hold patience has really paid off. The AI era has been a boon for CAT.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, CAT generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 16.3%. That beats the broader market by about 6 percentage points.

CAT also beats the S&P 500 by wide margins over the past one-, three-, five-, 10- and 15-year periods.

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in Caterpillar stock would be worth today. Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you put $1,000 into CAT stock 20 years ago, it would be worth $17,000 today. The same amount invested in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth about $7,800.

Even better, Wall Street sees more outperformance ahead. Of the 29 analysts covering CAT stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 14 call it a Strong Buy, one says Buy, 12 have it at Hold and two call it a Strong Sell. That works out to a rare consensus recommendation of Buy with solid conviction.

Speaking for the bulls, Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen likes the company's exposure to both the world of electrons and the world of atoms.

"CAT is underappreciated as a play on AI for the physical world," writes Owen, who rates shares at Outperform (the equivalent of Buy). "We believe its strength and diversity of backlog growth, the durability afforded by 40% of sales stemming from services, and a continued willingness to consistently buy back shares as structural underpinning for CAT's next phase of growth."

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The artificial intelligence (AI) gold rush has been a boon for investors in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Massive demand from the buildout of data centers has AMD stock soaring.

After falling nearly 20% in 2024, AMD stock returned close to 80% in 2025, and the outlook would appear bright. Analysts have never been more collectively bullish on the tech stock's prospects.

But while AMD has been a market-beater for more than a decade, truly long-term shareholders are sitting on disappointing returns. The chipmaker spent the first part of the past 20 years having a sort of "lost decade." As much success as AMD is enjoying now, it wasn't too long ago that shares were essentially priced for irrelevance, or worse.

Founded in 1969, AMD spent decades as a second-class citizen to Intel (INTC), which came to dominate the market for PCs. Intel was the innovator, and AMD licensed the former's technology to make clones.

By the early 2000s, however, the company began to shape its own destiny — and to compete directly against Intel. The key was AMD's Athlon 64 technology, which gave customers a competitive, and sometimes superior, alternative, to Intel's CPUs.

Sadly, the good times didn't last long. Although its 2006 acquisition of graphics chipmaker ATI laid the foundation for AMD's success in GPUs today, the $5.4 billion price tag nearly bankrupted the company.

Bigger troubles were to come. By the 2010s, AMD and Intel were locked in a CPU arms race to develop ever more powerful chips. When its much-anticipated Bulldozer architecture proved to be slower, hotter and less energy efficient than Intel's latest chips, it looked as if AMD might be finished.

If AMD had a nadir, it was July 27, 2015. With analysts and investors fretting about bankruptcy, AMD hit an all-time low of $1.61.

CEO Lisa Su is credited with executing one of the greatest turnarounds in history. AMD dropped its legacy as a low-cost supplier, pivoting to high-performance computing. Its Ryzen multi-core technology became a hit in the PC market, while EPYC processors began to systematically strip market share from Intel in the lucrative data-center market.

If there were any doubts that AMD was for real, they were put to rest by the 2022 acquisition of Xilinx. The $49 billion deal was the largest in the history of the semiconductor industry. It also marked another AMD pivot, this time toward AI.

The bottom line on AMD stock?

Long-time shareholders have put up with a lot of angst and drama through the years, and for most of them, it's paid off.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, the large-cap stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 12.1%. That beats the S&P 500 in the same span by more than a percentage point.

Other standardized time frames are even more impressive. AMD stock has outperformed the broader market — often by wide to gaping margins — over the past one-, three-, five-, 10- and 15-year periods too.

Sadly, timing, while not everything, very much matters. Investors who made a lump-sum investment in the semiconductor stock two decades ago are playing catch-up.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you'd put $1,000 into AMD stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth $6,300, or an annualized return of 9.7%

The same sum invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth almost $8,000 today — good for a return of 11%.

As for where AMD goes from here, as noted above, Wall Street has never been this bullish on AMD stock before. Of the 53 analysts covering the name, 36 call it a Strong Buy, five say Buy, and 12 have it at Hold, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with very high conviction.

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As a multinational logistics giant, United Parcel Service (UPS) is seen as something of a bellwether for the economy.

Sadly for shareholders, UPS stock has grown only about as fast as the global economy for decades.

Partly that's a function of UPS being a capital-intensive business. Operating a fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, alongside a highly unionized workforce, means UPS is tethered to "old economy" margins.

Meanwhile, in the past 20 years, the market has favored "capital-light" tech giants with fat margins over value names that pay hefty dividends.

However, a general market preference for growth stocks isn't the only thing weighing on UPS. Much of the company's sluggishness can be blamed on its former best friend: Amazon.com (AMZN). Once UPS's biggest customer, Amazon is now its most formidable competitor.

The pressure Amazon put on margins became so acute that UPS management began a strategic "decoupling," aiming to cut its Amazon-related volume by half by the end of 2026.

While concentrating on higher-margin operations makes strategic sense, forgoing Amazon's massive volume has created a significant "growth gap" that the top line reflects.

Revenue has increased at an average annual rate of less than 5% in the past 20 years. Operating income declined in 10 of the past 20 fiscal years. Those sorts of results don't usually drive outstanding returns.

If there is a bright spot, it's that UPS has been good for the income crowd. The company has raised its dividend annually for 17 years and routinely ranks among the highest-yielding dividend stocks in the S&P 500.

Even better, UPS has increased its payout at a compound annual growth rate of more than 8% in the past two decades. Under its current authorization, the company is expected to spend roughly $1 billion in 2026 buying back its own stock.

Analysts are increasingly bullish on UPS stock's prospects going forward. Sorry to say, but long-time shareholders are still sitting on dismal returns.

The bottom line on UPS stock?

UPS has been painful for anyone tough enough to ride it out. Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, UPS stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of just 4.6%. (Interestingly, the global economy grew at a similar pace.)

Other standardized time frames are likewise a downer. UPS has a negative total return in the past one-, three- and five-year periods. It lags the broader market by wide margins in the past 10 and 15 years.

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in UPS 20 years ago would be worth today. Look at the chart:

A thousand bucks invested in UPS two decades ago would today be worth just $2,700. That's good for an annualized return of 5.2%. The same sum invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth almost $8,000, or a return of 10.9%.

If there's any solace to be found, Wall Street is incrementally more optimistic on the industrial stock — at least in the next 12 months or so.

Of the 30 analysts covering UPS surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 12 rate it at Strong Buy, one says Buy, 14 have it at Hold, two say Sell and one calls it a Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, albeit without much conviction.

Speaking for analysts sitting on the sidelines, Susquehanna's Bascome Majors cites inflation and other macro risks for rating shares at Neutral (the equivalent of Hold).

"Near-term, we believe parcel demand is solid, and investor concern around the well-telegraphed second phase of Amazon's 'glide down' drives a fairly benign setup for UPS," Majors writes. "Midterm, rising U.S. union labor inflation in 2027 to 2028 keeps us from getting too excited about the fourth quarter of 2026 and beyond."

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The good news for long-suffering 3M (MMM) shareholders is that the stock is beating the broader market over the past year, and Wall Street is collectively bullish on MMM for the first time in 15 years.

The bad news is that shares in this once-illustrious blue chip stock have been a dismal buy-and-hold bet.

That might come as a shock. Few multinational industrial conglomerates enjoy 3M's household recognition. The inventor of masking tape, Scotch Tape and Post-it Notes likely resonates with consumers in ways that peers such as PPG Industries (PPG) or Illinois Tool Works (ITW) do not.

3M also carries a certain gravitas thanks to its distinguished history. Founded in the early 20th century as the Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company, MMM grew into an innovation powerhouse. Today, the company produces everything from personal protective equipment and adhesives to electronic displays and advanced materials.

It's hard to believe now, but this old economy conglomerate was once considered snazzy, if not exactly sexy. 3M has long plowed money into research and development, and it still encourages employees to spend 15% of their time on their own initiatives.

When 3M was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1976, it was due in part to its contemporary technological prowess. For a diversified industrial manufacturer, it was kind of an exciting company.

Alas, the 21st century hasn't been nearly as good to 3M or its shareholders. While analysts haven't been this upbeat about MMM's prospects in ages, anyone who held on through what has been a lost decade has a lot of catching up to do.

Several factors have weighed on 3M through the years. Stagnant revenue growth was a headwind, but the massive overhang came from years of lawsuits about "forever chemicals" (PFAS) and claims that its Combat Arms earplugs led to hearing loss.

MMM emerged from its lengthy litigation nightmare in 2024 and decided to get leaner. The market applauded when it spun off its health care business, Solventum (SOLV), in April 2024; however, the resulting loss of revenue and free cash flow forced the company to cut its dividend.

That stung the equity-income crowd. 3M had been one of the best dividend stocks for dependable growth, having increased its payout for 64 consecutive years. Following the cut, it's no longer a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats.

The bottom line on MMM stock?

This period of turmoil led to serious underperformance. MMM currently trails the S&P 500's annualized total return (price change plus dividends) over every standardized time frame beyond 52 weeks.

Throughout its entire life as a public company, MMM generated an annualized return of 9.7%, lagging the broader market by about a percentage point. It also lags the S&P 500 by wide margins in the past three-, five-, 10-, and 15-year periods.

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in MMM stock 20 years ago would be worth today. The answer: not nearly enough.

Have a look at the chart and you'll see that the industrial stock has been a black pit of opportunity cost.

If you had plunked down a thousand bucks two decades ago, it would today be worth about $4,500 — an annualized total return of 7.7%.

The same sum invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth $8,000 today, or a 10.8% annualized return.

As for where MMM goes from here, the Street is more "constructive" than it has been in a very long time. Of the 17 analysts surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, eight rate shares at Strong Buy, two say Buy, five have it at Hold and two say Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, albeit with mixed conviction.

It also happens to be the most bullish the Street has been on MMM since 2011.

Argus Research analyst Kristina Ruggeri, who rates the shares at Buy, cites the way the company is executing its turnaround strategy, among other factors.

"MMM is now making progress with aggressive steps to improve revenue and earnings, including cross-selling efforts and investments in the business," Ruggeri writes. "It is also undergoing a company-wide restructuring, making supply-chain improvements, and driving efficiencies in its manufacturing plants.

"In all, margins are widening meaningfully, and cash flow remains strong."

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Few companies have Coca-Cola's (KO) track record when it comes to returning cash to shareholders, but as a defensive dividend machine, KO stock hasn't been able to keep up with the broader market in the past couple of decades.

The Buy-rated Dow Jones stock remains one of Wall Street's favorite names in the consumer staples sector, but truly long-term shareholders would have been better off putting their cash in an S&P 500 index fund.

That might come as something of a surprise, given Coca-Cola's global reach and impeccable blue-chip credentials. No less an investing eminence than Warren Buffett has maintained a massive position in the fizzy drinks maker for nearly four decades.

The Oracle of Omaha drank Coca-Cola — and studied its business — for more than 50 years before adding it to the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio in the late 1980s.

To this day, KO is the holding company's fourth-largest position. With a stake of 400 million shares worth about $26 billion, KO accounts for almost 10% of Berkshire's U.S. stock portfolio.

Buffett's affinity for Coca-Cola is due in no small part to all the cash it returns to shareholders. As a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, KO is about as reliable a dividend grower as they come. The company has increased its payout annually for more than six decades.

KO has also been generous in returning cash to shareholders through stock buybacks. In the past five years, Coca-Cola has spent an average of $154 million per quarter to repurchase its own shares.

That's what a mature company in Coca-Cola's position needs to do to keep shareholders happy. With average annual revenue growth of only about 3% in the past two decades, KO isn't exactly a growth stock.

The bottom line on Coca-Cola stock?

It shouldn't come as a surprise that a defensive dividend payer such as KO trails the broader market over the past couple of decades. As a low-beta stock, KO tends to lag the S&P 500 when the market is rising, but also holds up better when everything is selling off.

A long bull market driven by outsize gains in tech and communication services stocks is going to leave defensive names behind.

That's partly why KO stock lags the S&P 500 on an annualized total return basis over every standardized time frame beyond one year. In the past three-, five-, 10- and 15-year periods, KO lags the broader market by anywhere from 5 to 12 percentage points.

As for the past two decades? It's not good. Have a look at the chart below to see what KO's chronic underperformance looks like on a brokerage statement.

If you put $1,000 into Coca-Cola stock 20 years ago, it would be worth about $6,200 today, good for an annualized total return of 9.6%. The same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth about $7,900 today.

Truly long-term shareholders have benefited from the ballast a consumer staples stock such as KO can provide in tougher markets, but as a less risky name, it also provided less reward.

The Street is bullish on KO at current levels. Of the 24 analysts covering the stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 13 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy and four call it a Hold. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with high conviction.

Speaking for the bulls, Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala calls KO a "standout" among industry peers.

"The business is strong and getting stronger," says Gajrawala, who rates shares at Buy. "Volumes are healthy. Coke's mix and pricing dynamic is one of the best in our space, and free cash flow is set to accelerate."

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Few companies have been as critical to mobile communications as Qualcomm (QCOM). The tech giant's chips and technology power devices made by everyone from Apple (AAPL) to ZTE (ZTCOY). At the same time, Qualcomm rakes in billions of dollars of revenue in royalties from licensing its patents.

Based on its ubiquity and illustrious history of technological innovation, you might think QCOM has been a great buy-and-hold bet.

It has not.

Mostly, QCOM has been dead money. And as for the past two decades, it has been a sinkhole of opportunity cost.

Qualcomm was founded in the 1980s, but it emerged as a tech disruptor when the cellphone market blew up in the latter part of the following decade. The company's CDMA digital cellular technology became a global standard, and nearly every handset manufacturer licensed it.

Qualcomm followed that win by pivoting to designing semiconductors for mobile devices. Snapdragon, which integrated CPUs, GPUs, modems and other components onto a single chip, became the go-to processor for Android smartphones.

Today, Qualcomm is evolving its Snapdragon platforms to power AI, PCs and high-end Android smartphones, among other endeavors. It even hopes to compete with Apple's (AAPL) M-series chips.

However, while analysts tend to be bullish about Qualcomm's prospects, its past performance has been desultory.

A valuation hangover from the go-go dot-com days did investors no favors for years – but legal headwinds and dashed dreams hurt more. The company spent a good chunk of the 2010s fighting antitrust lawsuits in the U.S. and overseas. Qualcomm also had a bruising standoff with a little customer known as Apple.

Adding insult to injury, Qualcomm's attempt to acquire NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was blocked by regulators. A hostile takeover bid for Qualcomm by Broadcom (AVGO) was similarly halted.

Take a look at Qualcomm's top line and you'll see that revenue would grow as much as 30% one year – and then decline 7% the next. The unstable and uncertain situation naturally took a toll on returns.

The bottom line on Qualcomm stock?

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, QCOM stock almost doubles the performance of the broader market, with an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 19.9% vs. 10.8% for the S&P 500.

Unfortunately, that's about the only time frame in which QCOM looks good. Indeed, the tech stock lags the broader market on pretty much every standardized time frame you pull up. (Over the past 10 years, QCOM does outperform the S&P 500 by about 1.6 percentage points.)

What does this sort of chronic underperformance look like on a brokerage statement? Take a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you put $1,000 into Qualcomm stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth about $5,600 – or an annualized total return of 9%.

The same sum invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth $7,900 today, or 10.9% annualized.

Can QCOM stock finally start delivering for patient investors?

Of the 36 analysts covering the semiconductor stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 11 rate it at Strong Buy, five say Buy, 19 have it at Hold and one calls it a Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, albeit with modest conviction.

Speaking for the bulls, Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher likes the way Qualcomm is navigating the rolling loss of its Apple business by focusing on a host of other opportunities.

"Snapdragon processors are well suited for the age of on-device Gen AI," the analyst writes. "Qualcomm is experiencing rapid growth in markets such as automotive, networking and IoT and has an unmatched royalty stream. On that basis, QCOM appears undervalued on significant long-term growth prospects."

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Home Depot (HD) stock has been a terrific buy-and-hold bet for truly long-term shareholders. Thanks to a history of innovation and adaptation, the nation's largest home improvement retailer has managed to stay on top through both economic ups and downs and technological disruptions.

Back in the day, hardware stores, be they mom-and-pop shops or regional chains, had relatively modest retail formats. That made it hard for them to service both professional contractors and do-it-yourselfers (DIY) at scale.

That's where Home Depot saw an opportunity. Founded in the late 1970s, the company reimagined hardware stores for the big-box age. Sprawling warehouse-style locations would not only be able to offer one-stop shopping for consumers and contractors alike, but they would be able to leverage scale into fatter margins and greater profitability.

Home Depot expanded rapidly over the 1980s and 1990s to overtake all rivals. By the beginning of the 21st century, the national chain started expanding overseas. Price, convenience and clever marketing – such as offering do-it-yourself clinics and classes for homeowners – made it the No. 1 brand in home improvement.

Home Depot, which was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1999, was just getting started. A company with a bit more than $50 billion in annual revenue was growing its top line at a double-digit percent rate. Gross margins of more than 30% and operating margins of around 15% led to impressive profits – and free cash flows.

Naturally, the company had its ups and downs. It rode the benefits of the housing boom – and suffered during the bust. As a brick-and-mortar retailer, it had to roll out a digital strategy for the e-commerce age. And while business took off during the pandemic, the past few years of pricey homes and higher mortgage rates have been a headwind for HD.

Nevertheless, this blue chip stock has managed to deliver market-beating returns over the long haul.

The bottom line on Home Depot stock

As noted above, higher rates and the ongoing recession in the housing market haven't been great for HD stock. Shares trail the S&P 500 on an annualized total return basis over the past one-, three- and five-year periods. As for the past decade, it's been a draw.

But anyone who's been in the stock longer than that has enjoyed strong outperformance. For its entire life as a publicly traded company, HD generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 17.8%. That beats the broader market by 7 percentage points.

And as for anyone who plonked down a thousand bucks two decades ago, have a look at the chart below.

If you'd put $1,000 into Home Depot stock 20 years ago, today it would be worth more than $15,000 – good for an annualized total return of 14.6%.

The same amount invested in an S&P 500 ETF would theoretically be worth about $8,300 today, or an annualized total return of 11.2%.

That's a great buy-and-hold bet. Happily for bulls, Wall Street expects more outperformance ahead.

Of the 37 analysts covering HD surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 21 rate it at Strong Buy, four say Buy, 11 have it at Hold and one calls it a Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with high conviction.

"We believe HD's customers are financially healthy and have significant capacity for future spending," writes Argus Research analyst Christopher Graja, who rates shares at Buy. "HD estimates that there are 'literally trillions' of dollars of home equity that might eventually be tapped for home renovations."

HD is also a great stock for dependable dividend growth. Indeed, the company has hiked its payout annually for 16 years. Moreover, HD's dividend has grown at a compound annual rate of 9% over the past five years.

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Bank of America (BAC) stock has been one of the better bets among large-cap financials in the past few years – but as a long-term holding, it leaves everything to be desired.

True, shares in the nation's second biggest bank by assets generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of more than 25% over the past year. That beats the broader market by more than a couple of percentage points.

And it's not for nothing that BAC remains one of Warren Buffett's favorite stocks. Berkshire Hathaway initiated a position in BAC in the third quarter of 2017. While Buffett has exited stakes in a host of other financial names through the years, BAC is still Berkshire's third-largest holding.

BAC accounts for more than 10% of the value of Berkshire's U.S. equity portfolio. Meanwhile, with more than 8% of its shares outstanding, Berkshire is Bank of America's second-largest investor after Vanguard.

It's hard not to like a stock so beloved by Warren Buffett, especially when he's gone out of his way to praise the bank's management.

Wall Street likes BAC, too. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 15 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy and four have it at Hold. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with very high conviction.

"We look for lending revenues to continue to improve amid better loan growth and an expanding net interest margin from a steeper yield curve," writes Argus Research analyst Stephen Biggar, who rates the financial stock at Buy. "Investment banking is also expected to continue its rebound."

As bright as BAC's prospects might be, shares have been a truly dreadful buy-and-hold bet.

Blame the Great Recession

Bank of America was formed when NationsBank acquired BankAmerica in the late 1990s to create the country's first coast-to-coast bank. The firm followed up with other megadeals, such as scooping up FleetBoston Financial, MBNA and U.S. Trust.

Sadly, the bank's hunger for deals was ultimately its undoing.

When the housing market imploded and the Great Recession hit, Bank of America went shopping. The firm's acquisition (with government assistance) of Merrill Lynch worked out. Its purchase of Countrywide, then the nation's largest mortgage lender, did not.

With a deal price of about $4 billion in stock, Countrywide looked like a fire-sale bargain. Instead, it saddled BAC with hundreds of billions of dollars in bad loans and tens of billions of dollars in legal settlements.

A stock that traded north of $50 in 2007 went for less than $5 in March 2009. More than four years later, BAC stock was still below $15. That made shares essentially immaterial among the price-weighted Dow Jones stocks. In the fall of 2013, BAC was replaced in the blue-chip barometer by Goldman Sachs (GS).

The bottom line on Bank of America stock

Bank of America has been a terrible buy-and-hold bet. In its entire life as a publicly traded company, BAC has generated an annualized total return of just 4%. The S&P 500, by comparison, returned 10.7% over the same span.

Shares also lag the broader market over the past three-, five-, 10- and 15-year periods.

As for the past two decades? It's sort of unforgivable.

Have a look at the above chart, and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in BAC stock 20 years ago, today your stake would be worth about $1,600 – good for an annualized total return of 2.4%.

The same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth almost $7,800 today, or an annualized total return of almost 10.8%.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Let us pray we never see something like the Great Recession again.

If nothing else, BAC's 20-year return shows how the damage inflicted by the global crisis continues to haunt investors to this day.

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What the promise of artificial intelligence (AI) giveth, fears of overspending on AI taketh away. Case in point: Oracle (ORCL).

Shares in the mega-cap tech name have lost more than half their value since hitting an all-time closing high in September 2025, shedding about $500 billion in market cap in the process. That's roughly the equivalent to the market values of Dow Jones stocks UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Goldman Sachs (GS) combined.

But as brutal as ORCL stock's recent history has been, long-time shareholders should be quite happy with their returns. Even after this latest plunge, Oracle stock has been a market-beating machine for ages.

Founded in the late 1970s, Oracle really hit its stride during the dot-com boom when it became dominant in database management systems. After the bubble burst, the company pursued an aggressive policy of acquisitions, scooping up software and hardware firms such as PeopleSoft and Sun Microsystems.

Oracle's voracious appetite transformed the company into what's known as a full-stack provider, offering enterprise customers everything from software and middleware to databases and hardware. But the acquisitions were also very expensive, pressuring margins at a time when year-over-year revenue growth was hard to come by.

Happily for Oracle shareholders, the company pivoted toward cloud computing. Undaunted by competition from the likes of Amazon.com's (AMZN) Amazon Web Services, Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Cloud, Oracle launched Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) to provide cloud-based services for a range of enterprise needs.

When AI exploded on the scene at the end of 2022, Oracle was well positioned to take advantage of the industry's insatiable demand for computing power.

Today, Oracle has a $455 billion pipeline of contracts to supply computing power for AI. Indeed, the tech stock practically went vertical in September 2025 after the enterprise database and cloud-services provider signed a massive deal with OpenAI. The latter, which is best known for ChatGPT, agreed to buy $300 billion in computing power from Oracle over five years.

"Oracle management has assembled the newest and one of the most formidable hyperscaler companies in the worldwide enterprise market," writes Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz, who rates shares at Outperform (the equivalent of Buy). "We see Oracle as a long-term beneficiary of the software industry secular trends driving revenue growth and operating leverage for the company."

Joining the AI gold rush allowed ORCL stock to gain 70% through the first nine months of 2025, adding about $400 billion in market cap in the process.

And then the bottom fell out.

Massive spending on its AI build-out (Oracle targeted $50 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026), negative free cash flow and more than $100 billion in debt caused sentiment on the name to change right quick.

The bottom line on Oracle stock?

But then, the "legacy tech company" label is something Oracle has been struggling to shake off for years. A middle-aged tech firm couldn't really compete for attention when the Magnificent 7 got all the glory as AI plays.

And yet ORCL stock has done very well by shareholders for a very long time.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, ORCL generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 17.3%. That clobbers the S&P 500's return of 10.7% over the same time frame.

And as for the past two decades? Oracle stock has been a buy-and-hold winner.

Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Oracle stock 20 years ago, today your stake would be worth about $15,000 – good for an annualized total return of 14.4%.

The same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth about $7,800 today, or an annualized total return of 10.7%.

Wall Street likes Oracle's chance of maintaining its market-beating ways. Of the 43 analysts covering ORCL stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 26 call it a Strong Buy, six say Buy, 10 rate it at Hold and one says Strong Sell.

That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with strong conviction to boot.

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Tech stocks might get the glory but long-term market beaters can be found in all sorts of places – even the oft-overlooked materials sector. Just take a gander at Sherwin-Williams (SHW).

Believe it or not, shares in the world's largest paint and coatings company by revenue have been an outstanding buy-and-hold bet for a very long time.

Founded shortly after the Civil War, Sherwin-Williams went on to grow rapidly, especially throughout the 20th century. But it really hit its stride in the 1980s. That's when a massive expansion of its retail base helped it become as familiar to consumers and do-it-yourself types as enterprise customers and professional contractors.

However, it's really been over the past couple of decades that SHW became the blue chip stock that it is today. A slew of acquisitions, capped by its $11 billion deal for Valspar in 2017, massively boosted the company's portfolio – and, more importantly, its profitability.

Today, SHW is the largest U.S. manufacturer and distributor of paints, coatings and related products, with more than 5,400 retail stores in over 120 countries.

To get a sense of how SHW's economies of scale impacted its bottom line: a company that posted operating margins of around 14% prior to the Valspar deal now averages closer to 19%. Indeed, over the past five years, revenue grew 26%, while adjusted operating margin increased 31%.

True, Sherwin-Williams' end markets are highly cyclical, with construction, housing and manufacturing all being sensitive to economic growth and interest rates. Thankfully, a strong commitment to returning cash to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends helps cushion any ups and downs.

By the way, SHW happens to be one of the best dividend stocks for dependable dividend growth, having increased its payout annually for nearly 50 years.

If there were any doubts about SHW's blue-chip bona fides, they were laid to rest when the stock was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in late 2024. Happily for current shareholders, Sherwin-Williams routinely ranks among analysts' top Dow Jones stocks.

The bottom line on Sherwin-Williams stock?

Sherwin-Williams is cyclical. With a beta of more than 1.0, it tends to outperform the S&P 500 in up markets and underperform in down markets. Nevertheless, over most standardized time frames this old economy stalwart has been a winner.

For its entire life as a publicly traded company, SHW has generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 16.5%. That beats the S&P 500 by a wide margin, or about 6 percentage points. SHW also outperforms the market handsomely over the past 10- and 15-year periods.

The more recent past has been a bit tougher, with higher interest rates and other macro factors acting as a drag on the sector. Go back a couple of decades, however, and Sherwin-Williams stock has been a market-beating machine.

As you can see in the above chart, if you put $1,000 into SHW stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth more than $22,000. The same sum invested in the S&P 500 over the same span would theoretically be worth $7,900.

In good news for shareholders and would-be shareholders, Wall Street mostly sees more market-beating returns ahead for the materials stock.

Of the 27 analysts covering SHW surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 12 call it a Strong Buy, three say Buy, 11 have it at Hold and one rates it at Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, albeit with somewhat mixed conviction.

Speaking for the bulls, Argus Research analyst Alexandra Yates calls the stock a "core long-term holding in the materials sector" based on its leading positions in high-growth end markets.

"We believe that interest rate cuts and moderating inflation will provide a meaningful rebound in real estate demand and serve as a positive catalyst," writes Yates.

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UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was a long-time market beater in a big way before 2025 became its annus horribilis.

Shares in the nation's largest health insurer had been a great buy-and-hold bet for decades, thanks to a relentless focus on growth through acquisitions.

The company, which started with humble beginnings in the 1970s, was a pioneer in offering network-based health care plans with the aim of controlling costs.

A few decades later, scores of acquisitions gave UNH an essentially vertical portfolio of health care businesses. By 2012, the company was such a force in its sector that the stock was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Today, UNH provides health insurance benefits to more than 50 million people. Its non-insurance Optum business, which helped drive much of the Dow Jones stock's upside in recent decades, is one of the largest employers of physicians in the U.S.

With a portfolio of businesses including insurance, pharmacy benefits management, doctor practices, medical billing and more, UnitedHealth became a growth darling in a defensive sector.

In 2024, UNH reported revenue of more than $400 billion, or a 100% increase over the $200 billion in revenue the company booked in 2017. Apple (AAPL), by comparison, saw its top line rise 70% to $391 billion over the same span.

Even more important, UNH maintained its ability to generate strong and steady profit growth. Operating earnings grew at an average rate of nearly 18% year over year as it doubled its revenue.

Investors were rewarded handsomely. Shares in UNH beat the broader market, often by wide margins, in both good years and bad. In 2021, when the S&P 500 returned 29% including dividends, UNH returned 45%. The following year, when the market lost 18%, UNH was up 7%.

Then things went awry.

The bottom line on UNH stock?

UNH was cruising along with long-term market-crushing returns until seemingly everything went sideways starting in late 2024: rising Medicare costs, a Department of Justice investigation into its billing practices and the murder of an executive.

Shares lost more than half their value at one point in 2025 and remained down about 40% through the first eight months of the year. A company with a peak market cap of $575 billion as recently as November 2024 is now worth about $340 billion.

Put another way, UNH has lost $235 billion in value from its top — or more than the entire market cap of McDonald's (MCD).

True, Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) Warren Buffett spied a bargain in UNH. The chairman and CEO, who will step down at the end of the year, added the troubled insurer to the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio in the second quarter.

In addition to a depressed share price, Buffett was also likely attracted to UNH's dividend. At 2.6%, UNH yields more than double the S&P 500.

Buffett scooping up 5 million shares in UNH might have given existing shareholders a boost of confidence, but it might take a good long while for their own positions to recover. As you can see in the chart below, UNH's deep funk has ruined its long-term returns.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, UNH generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 18%. That beats the broader market by a wide margin, or nearly 8 percentage points.

Sadly, that's about the only time frame that makes UNH look good. Shares have now underperformed the S&P 500 over every standardized period except 15 years. As for the past two decades, UNH's return of 10.2% lags the S&P 500 by almost a percentage point.

In other words, if you put $1,000 into UnitedHealth stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth just $5,400. The same sum invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth almost $7,900 today.

UNH was a massive market beater for ages — until it wasn't.

That hardly means the stock can't come back. Indeed, Buffett isn't the only one bullish on its prospects. Of the 27 analysts covering UNH tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 13 call it a Strong Buy, six say Buy, six have it at Hold and two rate it at Strong Sell.

That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with solid conviction.

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Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is in a class by itself when it comes to really long-term outperformance. It's not for nothing that Warren Buffett, who will retire as CEO at the end of 2025, is known as the greatest long-term investor of all time.

BRK.B stock has been a market beater over the past 20 years, too, but all the millionaires Berkshire minted had skin in the game long before the turn of the century.

That's how compounding and the law of large numbers work.

But first, a quick recap of Berkshire Hathaway's history. The company was a struggling textile firm when Buffett took control in 1965. Over the ensuing years, Buffett converted it into a holding company, or a company that buys other companies.

Buffett's first target was an insurance company, and the insurance business continues to be at the core of Berkshire's operations today.

Insurance was especially attractive to Buffett because of float, or the money insurance companies hold between collecting premiums and paying out claims. Thanks to the float from Berkshire's insurance companies, Buffett had ample sources of capital to buy up or invest in other enterprises.

Today, Berkshire Hathaway comprises more than 60 wholly owned subsidiaries, including BNSF Railway, Geico insurance, industrial titan Precision Castparts and fast food chain Dairy Queen.

Meanwhile, the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio, with a market value of about $250 billion, includes major stakes in Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC) and American Express (AXP), to name just a few.

Berkshire Hathaway has always been a long-term bet on the dynamism of the U.S. economy. It's also a low-beta stock, which means it tends to underperform in up markets and outperform in down markets.

And what that has added up to over the past 60 years is nothing less than astonishing. Since 1965, Berkshire stock has generated a compound annual growth rate of almost 20% vs 10% for the S&P 500.

What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Well, if you put $1,000 into Berkshire stock 60 years ago, it would be worth about $33 million today. The same sum invested in the S&P 500 would today be worth about $336,000.

Warren Buffett and his late partner Charlie Munger really did mint many a millionaire over the course of their long careers.

However, BRK.B's returns over the past 20 years, while good, have naturally been more modest.

After all, there's nothing like getting in on the ground floor.

The bottom line on Berkshire stock?

Although BRK.B stock outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the past five years, it actually lagged the returns of the S&P 500 over the past one-, three-, 10- and 15-year periods.

If you go back 20 years, BRK.B, which doesn't pay a dividend, generated an annualized return of 11.2%.

That's not too shabby, but it leads the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, by less than a percentage point. An active fund manager might be happy with such results, but it hardly means BRK.B stock was a path to riches in the 21st century.

Have a look at the above chart to get a sense of what BRK.B's returns would mean to your brokerage statement over the past couple of decades. They're just OK.

Indeed, if you put $1,000 into Berkshire stock 20 years ago, today it would be worth about $8,300. The same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth about $8,200 today.

With Warren Buffett set to step down at the end of 2025, some folks fear that Berkshire stock's best days are behind it. The reality is that Berkshire is now so big that it's unreasonable to expect anyone to repeat Buffett's historic run.

True, that doesn't mean BRK.B can't continue to be a market beater going forward. Wall Street is mostly bullish on the name, giving it a consensus recommendation of Buy, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Nevertheless, BRK.B's era of generating truly outstanding returns would appear to be behind it – and that was true even before Buffett announced his retirement.

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Procter & Gamble (PG) is about as blue as a blue chip stock can be. Sadly for long-term shareholders, this battleship of a defensive dividend-paying name has delivered underwhelming returns vs the broader market for a very long time.

Founded in the first half of the 19th century, P&G has grown into the world's largest consumer products company by market value, boasting a vast portfolio of billion-dollar brands. From Tide laundry detergent to Crest toothpaste to Pampers diapers, today, P&G sells its wares in more than 150 countries.

Yet even as Procter & Gamble expanded its dominance in the U.S. and spread around the globe, it never wavered in its commitment to returning cash to shareholders through dividends. P&G has paid uninterrupted dividends since 1891.

Even more impressively, P&G has increased its payout every year for nearly seven decades. As a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, Procter & Gamble has more than earned its reputation as one of the best dividend stocks to buy for dependable dividend growth.

Between its dividend increases and the fundamental nature of its business — sales of toothpaste and diapers tend to hold up in tough times — P&G stock is considered a classic defensive name.

This Buy-rated Dow Jones stock has been a component of the blue-chip benchmark since 1932.

There's no questioning the company's illustrious history. P&G stock's past performance, however, isn't quite as distinguished.

The bottom line on PG stock?

There's no way around it: P&G stock has been a market laggard for ages.

To be fair, over its lifetime as a publicly traded company, P&G has delivered market-matching results. With a total return (price change plus dividends) of 10.8%, it's essentially tied with the S&P 500 over the same span.

The problem is that if you look at time frames more relevant to shareholders alive today, Procter & Gamble stock is a bust.

It lags the broader market on an annualized total return basis in the past one-, three-, five-, 10-, 15- and 20-year periods – and by painfully wide margins, too.

To get a sense of what this underperformance looks like on a brokerage statement, have a look at the above chart. It shows that if you put $1,000 into P&G stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth about $4,400. That's an annualized return of 7.8%.

The same thousand bucks invested in the S&P 500 would today be worth about $8,000 — or an annualized return of 10.9%.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and Wall Street does mostly like P&G stock at current levels. Of the 24 analysts covering P&G surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 10 call it a Strong Buy, four rate it at Buy and 10 say Hold. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy — albeit with somewhat mixed conviction.

Speaking for the bulls, Argus Research analyst Taylor Conrad recommends buying shares on weakness.

"Despite higher raw material and distribution costs, the company continues to manage its margins with productivity initiatives," Conrad writes in a note to clients. "We also like P&G’s record of dividend growth and note that management’s 5% dividend hike in April showed confidence in future performance."

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Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) has been a buy-and-hold bonanza since it first went public more than two decades ago. Even better, analysts say the frenzy over all things AI gives GOOGL stock more room to run.

Investors knew they had something special with Google when it went public via a Dutch auction (don't ask) back in those innocent days of the early 21st century.

The company clearly offered the best internet search product, one that would eventually give it a near-monopoly in that lucrative market.

But Google hardly rested on its search laurels. The company rolled out a steady stream of new products – mail, maps and the Chrome operating system, for example – that extended its reach across the world wide web.

In 2006, the same year GOOGL was added to the S&P 500, the company acquired a quirky startup that allowed users to upload videos to the internet.

Critics questioned the wisdom of spending $1.7 billion on what looked to be a fad, but the YouTube deal turned out all right. After all, the business generated $60 billion billion in subscription and ad revenue in 2025, or 15% of Alphabet's entire top line.

Google, now dominant in search and omnipresent on the web, soon set its sights on mobile.

When smartphone sales exploded following Apple's (AAPL) release of the iPhone, Google entered the booming segment by creating the open-source Android mobile operating system.

And those are just a handful of highlights from the early days. By 2015, Google was operating so many diverse projects that it reorganized into a holding company called Alphabet.

Today, Google commands roughly 90% of the market for global search, and its Android operating system is found on approximately 70% of all smartphones.

Future success, however, is predicated on competing with fellow Magnificent 7 stocks Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) in artificial intelligence and cloud-based enterprise services. Note too that analysts feel pretty good about GOOGL's prospects in these endeavors.

Although Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure claim higher total cloud market share, Google Cloud is currently the fastest-growing major hyperscaler. Alphabet also has a competitive advantage thanks to its vertical integration, including chips, infrastructure, training datasets and end-user applications.

But before we get to where Wall Street thinks the communication services stock is going, let's take a look at how it’s performed for the truly faithful over the past couple of decades.

The bottom line on Google stock?

GOOGL stock has been one of the best stocks of all time, according to research by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Over its entire lifetime as a publicly traded company, Alphabet generated more than $1 trillion in lifetime wealth creation, which accounts for a stock's increase in market cap adjusted for cash flows in and out of the business and other factors.

How impressive is that? Only Apple, Microsoft and Exxon Mobil (XOM) created more wealth for shareholders, per Bessembinder's findings.

Heck, GOOGL is one of just four stocks to ever top $4 trillion in market cap.

But then retail investors are probably more interested in what a long-term investment in GOOGL stock looks like on a brokerage statement.

Spoiler alert: Alphabet's outperformance has been nothing less than stupendous.

GOOGL stock outperforms the S&P 500 over any pretty much any standardized time period investors care to measure.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, GOOGL stock has generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 25.2%. That more than doubles the broader market's total return of 10.8%.

GOOGL's 20-year performance might be slightly less impressive, but it’s been highly remunerative nonetheless. Over the past two decades, GOOGL stock delivered an annualized total return of 19.2% versus 10.9% for the S&P 500.

Have a look at the above chart. You'll see that if you put $1,000 into GOOGL stock 20 years ago, it would be worth more than $33,000 today. The same amount invested in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth almost $8,000.

Happily for GOOGL shareholders, analysts see plenty more upside ahead for the blue chip stock. Of the 65 analysts covering GOOGL stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 48 call it a Strong Buy, 10 say Buy and 7 have it at Hold.

That works out to a rare consensus recommendation of Strong Buy. Indeed, Alphabet routinely ranks among analysts' top S&P 500 stocks.

Speaking for the bulls, Argus Research analyst Joseph Bonner praises the company's success outside of its core search product and its potential in AI.

"While Alphabet has been criticized as a Johnny-one-note for its dependence on digital advertising, the rapid growth of Google Cloud and YouTube have started to diversify the company's revenue," writes Bonner, who rates GOOGL at Buy. "Alphabet remains at a minimum competitive, if not a leader, in the development of generative AI, the rapidly developing and perhaps disruptive new computing paradigm."

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Walt Disney (DIS) stock is showing signs of life again vs the broader market, but long-term shareholders might be forgiven if they've grown impatient with their returns.

Disney stock is in the midst of a lost half-decade, trailing the broader market every year since 2021. Massive investments in streaming services finally eked out a small profit in 2024, but not enough to make up for declines in Disney's linear networks. Cord-cutting is gutting of cable subscriptions, undercutting once-reliable profit engines such as ESPN and ABC.

And while uncertainty about who would replace legendary CEO Bob Iger has been laid to rest – the board tapped Josh D'Amaro, who oversees the company's parks and resorts – it remains to be seen if the new executive team can address Disney's myriad challenges.

As bad as Disney's run has been in the post-pandemic era, it's not unusual when you pull back and look at the stock's long-term record. Trailing the market is what DIS does.

On an annualized total return basis (price change plus dividends), DIS comes up well short of the broader market over pretty much any standardized period you care to measure beyond the past year.

Everyone remembers how the pandemic clobbered Disney, whose theme parks and film businesses were epically exposed to COVID-19. Dividend investors certainly recall that the company suspended its payout in the early months of the outbreak to conserve cash.

Disney reinstated the dividend at the end of 2023. It was welcome news for income investors and certainly helped bolster the share price.

And the stock had a good run at the onset of the pandemic, with DIS shares more than doubling from March 2020 to March 2021, hitting an all-time high as a pandemic recovery play. At the top, Disney boasted a market cap of more than $366 billion.

What Disney shareholders would probably like to forget is that DIS is still far below its peak. Shares have lost nearly half their value since hitting a closing high back in March 2021, losing more than $180 billion in market value in the process.

To put such a sum in context, that's more than the market values of six of 30 Dow Jones stocks, including Salesforce (CRM), Honeywell International (HON) and Nike (NKE).

DIS was one of the 30 best stocks in the world over the three decades ended 2020. For long-term investors today, however, it's been a huge bust.

The bottom line on Disney stock

While it's true that you can manipulate historical returns by fussing with their beginning and end points, Disney's record vs the broader market over pretty much any standardized period you care to measure is terrible.

For its entire history as a publicly traded company, Disney stock has generated an annualized total return of 8.2%. That trails the S&P 500 by about 3 percentage points.

The past two decades have been only a little better for Disney, with shares returning 8.1% vs 10.9% for the broader market.

To get a sense of what this underperformance looks like on a brokerage statement, have a gander at the above chart. Note that if you put $1,000 into Disney stock 20 years ago, it would be worth about $5,000 today.

The same amount invested in the S&P 500 two decades ago would theoretically be good for about $8,000 today.

Disney shareholders expected more. If they feel those returns are disappointing, they are not wrong.

If there's a sliver of a silver lining for buy-and-hold Disney investors, at least Wall Street likes its chances of beating the market in the next 12 to 18 months.

Of the 32 analysts issuing opinions on DIS stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 21 rate it at Strong Buy, five say Buy, five have it a Hold, and one calls it a Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with strong conviction.

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When it comes to blue chip stocks that pay dividends and play defense, Walmart's (WMT) reputation is pretty tough to beat.

Indeed, Walmart is indisputably one of the best dividend stocks for dependable dividend growth.

This member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats has increased its payout annually for more than half a century. For those reasons and more, Walmart ranks as one of analysts' favorite Dow Jones stocks.

Walmart's defensive characteristics certainly came in handy in 2022, as you can see in the chart below. The S&P 500 generated a total return (price change plus dividends) of -18.1%, a historically bad result.

On the other hand, Walmart's total return came to -0.5% – or essentially flat – to beat the broader market by more than 17 percentage points.

The other side of WMT's defensive coin can be seen in its performance during 2023's remarkable rally. While the S&P 500 returned more than 26%, Walmart returned less than 13%.

As for 2026, WMT's defensive characteristics once again proving their worth. Shares have returned 16% so far this year, while the S&P 500 is basically flat. This recent outperformance has helped WMT turn in solid market-beating returns on a 20-year basis.

That's a change in fortune. WMT stock was a long-time laggard following a torrid run in the 1990s, hurt by the market's preference for growth over value, as well as worries about the future of bricks-and-mortar retail.

The bottom line on Walmart stock

Walmart stock was actually one of the best stocks of the 30 years between 1990 and 2020, but as you can see in the chart below, WMT basically traded sideways for the first decade-plus of the 21st century.

Walmart shares went nowhere for a long time, but then that's not necessarily unusual given how far and fast they appreciated during the bubblicious 90s.

Between the beginning of 1997 and the end of 1999, WMT gained more than 500% on a price basis. The broader market didn't quite double over the same span.

Also weighing on WMT during the first decade of the new century was the threat from e-commerce.

Walmart responded by becoming the second-largest e-commerce retailer in the U.S. after Amazon.com (AMZN) – albeit a distant second. Walmart got serious about its digital strategy sometime around 2006, but it took a while for what was regarded as "show-me" story to ultimately prove successful.

Whatever the causes, that lost decade on Walmart's stock chart hurts its long-term results. Over the past 20 years, WMT stock has generated an annualized total return of 13.5% vs 10.8% for the S&P 500.

To get a sense of what this sort of ride looks like on a stock chart over the past two decades, see the chart below.

The chart illustrates the fact that if you invested $1,000 in Walmart stock 20 years ago, today it would be worth about $12,600. The same thousand bucks invested in an S&P 500 ETF would be worth about $7,700 today.

As for its entire history as a publicly traded company, WMT's annualized total return beats the broader market by about 3 percentage points.

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Imagine a company that's enjoyed overwhelming success in its key markets for ages and also claims one of the most valuable and recognizable brands in the world.

This company was so important to both its sector and the broader economy that it was a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for nearly a quarter of a century.

One would expect this blue chip stock to have been an outstanding buy-and-hold bet. To be fair, for a good long while, it was.

That was then. This is now.

Unfortunately, the former Dow Jones stock we're talking about is Intel (INTC).

Shares almost doubled in 2023, helped by a multibillion-dollar cost-cutting campaign and the generalized euphoria surrounding all things artificial intelligence (AI). Intel bulls harbored hopes that the year marked an inflection point for the long-time market laggard.

It hasn't worked out that way. Intel fell as much as 60% from its late 2023 peak before climbing back to about breakeven today. Heck, shares remain about 33% below their all-time high.

It's hard to believe now, but once upon a time, INTC was one of the best stocks on the planet. Cut to the present, and it's not clear if the company can reclaim its glory days.

Intel still dominates the markets for central processing units (CPUs) for PCs and servers, but it's been losing share to rivals at an accelerating rate for some time. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are just a couple of its formidable competitors.

Where the semiconductor company really went wrong — apart from execution missteps and manufacturing delays — is the way it missed some of the biggest changes in technology. Intel famously whiffed on mobile, and now Nvidia is running away in generative AI.

There's a reason Nvidia replaced Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2024.

It's been a curious ride for INTC investors. Thanks to its dot-com era heyday, Intel was one of the 30 best stocks in the world from 1990 to 2020.

In those three decades, INTC stock generated more than $340 billion in wealth for shareholders, or an annualized dollar-weighted return of 16%, says Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

However, the past two decades of that 30-year span have been another story.

The bottom line on Intel stock?

If you go all the way back to Intel's debut in the early 1970s as a publicly traded company, it beats the broader market handily. The chipmaker's annualized all-time total return stands at 14.4%. The S&P 500's annualized total return comes to 10.8% in the same span.

If you look at pretty much any other standardized period, an investment in INTC has been a major dud.

Intel stock trails the broader market by distressingly wide margins in the past five-, 10- and 20-year periods. Indeed, its five-year annualized total return is negative.

What does this sort of performance look like on a brokerage statement? Nothing short of ugly.

Have a look at the above chart, and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Intel stock 20 years ago, today your stake would be worth about $4,000, or an annualized total return of 7.4%.

The same amount invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically be worth about $7,000 today. That's good for an annualized total return of 11%.

As illustrious and iconic as the Intel brand might be, Intel stock has been nothing but a sinkhole of opportunity cost for buy-and-hold investors for a very long time.

So where does INTC stock go from here? Wall Street is mostly sitting on the sidelines, giving it a consensus recommendation of Hold. Of the 47 analysts covering Intel surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, eight call it a Strong Buy, one says Buy and 32 have it at Hold. Four analysts rate INTC at Sell, while two say it's a Strong Sell.

Among their worries: the company is in the midst of a major restructuring as it struggles to right its floundering foundry business. True, the federal government took a 10% equity stake in 2025, and that's given INTC stock a boost. However, the foundry business continues to generate operating losses and is having difficulty lining up outside customers, among other issues.

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Few companies are more closely associated with the rise and dominance of the American technology industry over the course of the 20th century than International Business Machines (IBM).

The company that came to be known as Big Blue is sort of the O.G. of big tech stocks. IBM, founded before World War I, became the industry leader in pretty much every market it entered, from early punch-card tabulating systems to electric typewriters to mainframe and personal computers.

IBM stock was a fantastic buy-and-hold bet over those many decades. From 1926 to December 2019, IBM created $525.9 billion in shareholder wealth, according to research by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Only seven U.S. stocks generated better returns for shareholders over that span.

Times change. IBM ceded ground to any number of peers, including some of the Magnificent 7 stocks sporting multitrillion-dollar market caps today. The result? Shares in this long-time Dow Jones stock have been a major disappointment for decades.

As a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, IBM is a top-notch name for dependable dividend growth. Not only has the company paid consecutive quarterly dividends since 1916, it has increased its payout annually for 30 years and counting.

However, even after factoring in those reliable and rising dividends, IBM stock has been a market laggard over the long haul.

The bottom line on IBM stock?

IBM stock has been mounting a comeback over the past few years, but as a truly long-term holding, it's been a serious market laggard.

Here's the breakdown: IBM stock's all-time annualized total return (price change plus dividends) comes to 4.6%. The S&P 500 generated an annualized total return of 10.8% over the same span.

It doesn't end there. Shares in the tech giant beat the broader market on an annualized total return basis in the past three- and five-year periods, but lag badly over longer time frames.

It should come as no surprise that if you invested a grand in IBM stock a couple of decades ago, you would be deeply disappointed by the results today.

Have a look at the above chart, and you'll see that if you put $1,000 into IBM stock 20 years ago, it would be worth about $5,700 today. That's good for an annualized total return of 9.1%.

The same sum socked away into an S&P 500 index fund over the past two decades would be worth almost $8,300 today, or 10.9% annualized.

The bottom line? Big Blue has been a buy-and-hold bust in the 21st century.

As for where IBM stock goes from here, Wall Street is cautiously bullish on the name. Of the 22 analysts covering the stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 10 call it a Strong Buy, two say Buy, eight have it at Hold, one says Sell and one rates it at Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy with mixed conviction.

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Adobe (ADBE) stock was supposed to get a big boost by adding AI to its offerings, and yet so far the transformational technology has only put shares under pressure.

The result? Although truly long-time shareholders are still sitting on market-beating returns, ADBE isn't the same buy-and-hold beast of yore.

While Magnificent 7 stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gain 25% over the past 52 weeks, ADBE is down a painful 30%.

It gets worse. Shares lost more than a quarter of their value last year. And while ADBE popped 77% in 2023, it lost more than 40% in 2022. Yikes.

If it's any consolation to restive shareholders, many steps forward and a few steps back is sort of par for the course for volatile ADBE stock.

Much of the recent underperformance can be attributed to competition in generative AI. For years, the company enjoyed a near monopoly in its niche. Its Creative Suite – which includes the likes of Photoshop, Premiere Pro for video editing and Dreamweaver for website design, among others – really had no peer.

But times change. The emergence of Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure and other cloud-based competitors have taken a bite out of Creative Cloud.

True, Adobe's suite of products still commands a market share of more than 60%, but there's no question the company – and its shareholders – have been feeling the heat.

Indeed, ADBE now lags the broader market on an annualized total return basis by more than 20 percentage points over the past three- and five-year periods.

The bottom line on Adobe stock

It wasn't supposed to be like this. After all, Adobe's hot 2023 run was a lot more like what longtime shareholders have come to expect from the large-cap stock.

Have a look at the chart below and you'll see that a $1,000 investment in Adobe stock 20 years ago would today be worth nearly $12,000. The same money invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically have grown to about $8,300.

Although Adobe is maintaining its market-beating ways, the outperformance gap has narrowed alarmingly since shares peaked back in November 2021.

Happily for bulls, Wall Street believes ADBE can one-day reclaim its record high. Of the 40 analysts issuing opinions on Adobe stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 20 rate it at Strong Buy, five call it a Buy, 12 have it at Hold and three say it's a Strong Sell.

That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with solid conviction.

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Not too long ago, Microsoft (MSFT) stock's glory days looked to be behind it as sales of desktop PCs slipped into a seemingly irreversible decline.

Although the dot-com days of the 1990s minted many a "Microsoft millionaire," the aftermath of the tech bust led Microsoft stock to trade mostly sideways for more than a decade.

But the past 10-plus years have been nothing short of a renaissance for the tech giant. When CEO Satya Nadella ascended to the top job in 2014, he not only began instituting cultural changes, but he transformed Microsoft's core strategy too.

Cloud computing and subscription-based services were in; the days of selling software licenses via physical compact disks were passé.

That focus on enterprise customers and – most importantly – Microsoft's shift to selling cloud-based services such as Azure and Office 365 has been an astounding success.

Today, Microsoft is a dominant player in cloud computing and a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) – and MSFT's returns prove it.

Indeed, Microsoft stock has been so remunerative since Nadella took over that long-term investors might not even notice that dud decade-plus following the tech bust.

Between January 1990 and December 2020, shares in Microsoft, which joined the Dow in 1999 at the height of the dot-com boom, generated a total return of 57,730%. The S&P 500's total return came to a mere 1,950% over the same span.

Along the way, Microsoft generated $1.91 trillion in wealth for shareholders, good for an annualized dollar-weighted return of 19.2%, according to Hendrik Bessembinder, professor of finance at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Only Apple (AAPL) generated more wealth for shareholders over those three decades, making Microsoft one of the best stocks of the past 30 years, per Bessembinder's findings, which account for cash flows in and out of the business and other adjustments.

The bottom line on Microsoft stock

Have a look at the chart below and you'll see that if you put a grand into Microsoft stock two decades ago, it would be worth about $25,000 today. That's good for an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 17.6%.

The same amount invested in the S&P 500 20 years ago would theoretically be worth almost $8,000 today, or 10.9% annualized.

But wait, there's more.

Over its entire life as a publicly traded company, Microsoft has generated an annualized total return of 21.8%. The S&P 500's total return comes to 10.8% annualized over the same span.

Happily for Microsoft bulls, analysts very much expect shares to continue their market-smashing ways.

Of the 57 analysts issuing opinions on Microsoft stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 43 call it a Strong Buy, 12 say Buy and two have it at Hold.

It's rare for a stock with this much coverage to receive no Hold or Sell calls. The result is a consensus recommendation of Strong Buy with extremely high conviction.

No wonder MSFT routinely ranks as a top-rated Dow Jones stock, as well as one of analysts' top S&P 500 stocks to buy now.

Check out the stocks billionaires are buying or hedge funds' top blue chip stocks and you'll see that much of the putative smart money agrees with Wall Street's assessment.

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Amazon.com (AMZN) stock is underperforming the broader market by a wide margin so far this year, but it's been a remarkably remunerative bet for long-term shareholders.

Truly patient investors in Amazon stock have enjoyed astonishing returns through the decades.

Amazon, which joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average in February 2024, suffered some profound sell-offs over the years. At one point during its history, from peak to trough, Amazon stock lost more than half its value, wiping out more than a trillion dollars in market value.

That's just the price of admission to one of the best stocks of all time.

An analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, found that AMZN was one of the 30 best stocks in the world through three decades.

Between its initial public offering in 1997 and December 2020, Amazon stock created nearly $1.6 trillion in wealth for shareholders, according to Bessembinder's model, which includes cash flows in and out of the business and other adjustments.

Amazon started as a modest website for book buyers. Today, it's the nation's largest e-commerce company.

That's only part of the story behind its extraordinary wealth creation. The firm is a giant in cloud-based services and artificial intelligence (AI), and a leader in streaming media and digital advertising.

Amazon has a massive footprint in the analog world, too. It owns the Whole Foods grocery store chain and maintains sprawling logistics operations. The latter comprise a vast assemblage of distribution centers and fleets of commercial aircraft and trucks, among other capital-intensive assets.

The bottom line on Amazon stock?

Which brings us to what $1,000 invested in Amazon stock 20 years ago would be worth today.

As you can see in the chart, if you'd invested $1,000 in Amazon stock a couple of decades ago, it would today be worth about $93,000. That's good for an annualized total return of almost 26%.

By comparison, the same sum invested in the S&P 500 in the same time frame would theoretically be worth about $8,000 today. That comes to an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 10.9%.

If past is anything like prologue, Amazon will continue to outperform the broader market at a healthy clip. For its entire history as a publicly traded company, Amazon stock generated an annualized total return of more than 31%. The S&P 500's annualized total return comes to 10.8% in the same span.

Put another way, Amazon stock has more than tripled the performance of the broader market since it went public. The way things are going, bulls are probably feeling pretty confident about Amazon keeping its streak alive.

Wall Street sure thinks it can — at least in the next 12 months or so. Of the 66 analysts issuing opinions on Amazon surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 47 call it a Strong Buy, 16 say Buy, and three have it at Hold.

That works out to a rare consensus recommendation of Strong Buy, and with high conviction. Amazon makes the list of analysts' best Dow Jones stocks, as well as the Street's top S&P 500 stocks to buy now.

"Amazon.com is one of the few large-cap companies benefiting from the secular shift to e-commerce," notes Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein, who rates shares at Outperform (the equivalent of Buy). "The Whole Foods acquisition created another leg of growth. Finally, AMZN's Web Services segment is now the global leader in cloud computing and has significant value."

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Netflix (NFLX) stock is notoriously volatile. Shares lost about a quarter of their value over the second half of 2025 alone. And that was before the streaming giant made its $83 billion bid (including debt) for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

While some nimble traders have surely used NFLX's gut-wrenching swings to their advantage over the years, plenty of punters with less fortunate timing have just as assuredly had their faces ripped off.

Happily for the company's truly long-time shareholders, they're in another class entirely.

Those who bought stock in the streaming media giant two decades ago – and then held and held and held through NFLX's many vertiginous ups and downs – have enjoyed outstanding returns vs the broader market.

As successful as Netflix has been – and may continue to be – it remains at its core a somewhat insecure business model. (Just look at NFLX stock's volatility for proof.)

On the plus side, Netflix is the king of on-demand streaming entertainment, serving TV series, films and games via 300 million paid memberships in more than 30 languages and 190 countries. It furthermore lays claim to arguably the best brand in the industry.

On the downside, Wall Street puts relentless pressure on the company to grow its subscriber base. As a consequence, Netflix must spend tens of billions of dollars on content to attract and retain viewers.

Competition from the likes of Walt Disney (DIS), Apple (AAPL), Paramount (PSKY), Amazon.com (AMZN) and others have forced Netflix to splurge on efforts to acquire, license and produce content over the past several years.

After peaking at $17.7 billion in 2021 – a whopping 50% increase vs the previous year – Netflix managed to cut spending on content.

The company spent about $13 billion on content in 2023, another $16 billion for programming in 2024 and plans to spend $18 billion in 2025.

Investors are counting on the company to keep leveraging those investments into the kind of outsized subscriber growth NFLX enjoyed at the tail end of last year.

After all, nothing hurts NFLX stock like losing subscribers. Recall that in April 2022, shares plunged after Netflix reported its first loss of subscribers in more than a decade. The company shed in excess of $50 billion in market value overnight.

It's also worth recalling that Netflix stock was already in a steep decline at that point. Sluggish subscriber growth and rising costs had long knocked it off its perch. Indeed, shares topped out above a post-split peak of $69 back in November 2021 before plummeting below the $20 price point by mid-2022. (Netflix underwent a 10-for-1 stock split in November 2025.)

The bottom line on Netflix stock?

Which brings us to what you would have today if you had invested $1,000 in Netflix stock 20 years ago.

The good news is NFLX stock has clobbered the broader market over the long term, generating an annualized total return of 31.9% over the past two decades vs 11% for the S&P 500.

Netflix stock also outperforms the broader market over every standardized time frame past one year.

To see what these sort of returns look like on a brokerage statement, check out the chart below.

If you put $1,000 in NFLX stock 20 years ago, today it would be worth about $253,000.

By comparison, $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 over the same time frame would theoretically be worth about $8,000 today. (The broader market's return includes dividends, which Netflix doesn't pay.)

As for where Netflix goes over the next 12 to 18 months, the Street's consensus recommendation on this communication services stock is highly bullish.

Of the 45 analysts issuing opinions on NFLX stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 23 rate it at Strong Buy, eight say Buy, 12 call it a Hold, one rates it at Sell and one says Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with high conviction to boot.

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Apple (AAPL) stock has been in a slump since notching a record high at the end of 2025, but that means little to truly long-term investors.

Recall that at one point last year, AAPL stock lost as much as 30% of its value. Shares soon went on a remarkable run, adding about $1.6 trillion to the company's market cap in only eight months.

Given that context, a 9% drawdown from AAPL's December record is just the cost of doing business. If you want to own equities, volatility is merely the price of admission.

Truly long-term buy-and-hold Apple investors already know this. After all, they've been through these sorts of things many times before – and have been rewarded with incomparable returns over the past few decades.

As famed speculator Jesse Livermore once said, the big money is made by "sitting tight." If any stock proves the wisdom of his words, it's Apple.

From January 1990 through December 2020, AAPL stock created $2.67 trillion in shareholder wealth, or an annualized dollar-weighted return of 23.5%, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Indeed, per Bessembinder's findings, which account for a stock's increase in market cap adjusted for cash flows in and out of the business and other adjustments, Apple was the best stock in the world over those 30 years.

True, AAPL stock traded sideways for the first few years of the 21st century, but an explosion of innovation soon put an end to that.

Under the visionary leadership of the late Steve Jobs, Apple essentially reinvented itself for the mobile age, launching revolutionary gadgets such as the iPod, MacBook and iPad.

But what really set Apple on its course to becoming the world's third-largest publicly traded company – and one of hedge funds' favorite blue chip stocks – was the 2007 debut of the iPhone.

Today, Apple isn't just a purveyor of gadgets; it sells an entire ecosystem of personal consumer electronics and related services. And it's a sticky ecosystem at that.

No less an eminence than Warren Buffett has called the iPhone maker Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) "third business," noting Apple fans' fantastic brand loyalty as one reason for being all-in on the stock. (Apple accounts for more than fifth of the value of the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio.)

True, Berkshire Hathaway cut its Apple stake sharply over the past year, but that was because the holding company believes that corporate taxes are likely to rise at some point in the future. Bulls needn't worry about Berkshire losing its taste for the stock. Warren Buffett adores Apple as much as ever.

Little wonder the iconic tech firm was tapped to become one of the elite 30 Dow Jones stocks. In 2015, Apple replaced AT&T (T) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The bottom line on Apple stock?

Over the past 20 years Apple stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 27.4%. By comparison, the S&P 500 delivered an annualized total return of 10.8% over the same span.

What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Check out the chart below and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth about $130,000.

The same $1,000 invested in an S&P 500 index fund would theoretically have turned into less than $8,000 over the same period.

For those wondering if Apple stock is a buy at current levels, Wall Street certainly thinks so.

Of the 48 analysts covering AAPL surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 25 rate it at Strong Buy, six say Buy, 15 have it at Hold, one says it's a Sell and one has it at Strong Sell.

That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with high conviction.

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Nvidia (NVDA) cemented its place as the market's favorite bet on artificial intelligence (AI) three years ago and it shows no signs of letting up.

Indeed, the company has become so important to investors that Nvidia's earnings report helps set the tone for trading for the broader market.

To recap: OpenAI's ChaptGPT kicked off the AI frenzy at the end of 2022. Seemingly insatiable demand on the part of AI hyperscalers for Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) propelled NVDA stock past $1 trillion in market capitalization midway through 2023.

It took only about eight months for yet another blowout quarterly earnings report to push Nvidia stock past the $2 trillion mark.

Cut to early 2024 when Nvidia's over-the-top first-quarter earnings – plus a NVDA stock split and a dividend hike – pushed its market cap past $3 trillion.

As of this writing, Nvidia, which replaced Intel (INTC) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in late 2024, is the world's largest publicly traded company. Indeed, it became the first company to top $4 trillion in market cap in July 2025. Four months later, Nvidia briefly exceeded $5 trillion in market cap before shares eased back.

But then, long-time shareholders should be used to such outsized rewards and risks by now.

That's because volatility has always been the price of admission to this long-time market beater. True, Nvidia, a highly cyclical semiconductor stock, has vastly outperformed the broader market since going public at the end of the last century.

Quite naturally, it has done so with several vertiginous ups and downs along the way.

After losing half its value in 2022, NVDA stock more than tripled on a price basis in 2023, vs a gain of 24% for the S&P 500.

And as for 2024? Nvidia stock gained more than 170% vs a 25% rise in the broader market. The stock once again led the broader market in 2025, albeit by "only" 21 percentage points.

Nvidia's market-beating ways go much farther back than most folks might know, however. In fact, few stocks have done more for investors over the past few decades than Nvidia.

From its initial public offering at $12 a share in January 1999 through December 2020, NVDA stock created $309.4 billion in shareholder wealth, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Indeed, per Bessembinder's findings, which account for a stock's increase in market value adjusted for cash flows in and out of the business and other factors, Nvidia was one of the 30 best stocks over that 30-year time frame.

Looked at another way, over its life as a publicly traded company, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return of 37.1%. The S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, returned an annualized 10.8% over the same period.

Importantly, most of the shareholder wealth generated by Nvidia came over just the past few years. That's because back in the day, the primary market for Nvidia's chips consisted of PC and console video game enthusiasts.

Happily for Nvidia, it just so happens that the company's powerful GPUs and related intellectual property are indispensable to the fields of artificial intelligence, professional visualization, cryptocurrency mining and more.

As noted above, NVDA processors are in demand for use in data centers – and especially data centers that power generative AI. Indeed, the company is struggling to keep up with orders from hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

Few blue chip stocks offer so much exposure to so many emerging endeavors, which helps explain NVDA stock's amazing returns over the longer haul. AI has been NVDA's afterburner.

But as remarkable as the company's business may be, it doesn't quite get to the heart of what NVDA stock has meant to long-term shareholders and their brokerage statements. For that, consider the following facts about Nvidia stock.

The bottom line on Nvidia stock?

Over the past two decades, Nvidia stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 37.2%. The S&P 500, by comparison, generated an annualized total return of 10.9% over the same span.

What does that mean in dollar terms? Have a look at the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Nvidia stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth more than $560,000. The same amount invested in an S&P 500 index fund would theoretically be worth not quite $8,000 today.

As for adding to NVDA at current levels, the Street remains bullish even after the stock's incredible run. Indeed, NVDA rates as a top Dow Jones stock to buy.

Of the 63 analysts issuing opinions on Nvidia stock surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 49 rate it at Strong Buy, 11 say Buy, two call it a Hold and one has it at Strong Sell.

That works out to a rare consensus recommendation of Strong Buy. Indeed, Nvidia ranks among analysts' top S&P 500 stocks to buy now.

Speaking for the bulls, Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer says the AI build-out is still in its early days.

"Nvidia has transformed from a graphics company to a premier leading full stack AI solutions platform company," notes the analyst, who rates NVDA at Outperform (the equivalent of Buy.) "Compute continues to chase demand. NVDA ubiquitous AI platform best positioned to win."

Just remember that NVDA is ultimately a chip company, and the semiconductor industry is cyclical. As exciting as the AI build-out may be, Nvidia's growth prospects could still one day change.

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