Stocks were mixed at the beginning of a big week for the AI trade and long-term monetary policy, with an uneasy stalemate holding in the Middle East and a trade war widening in North America. Relatively few management teams are scheduled to report financial results and offer guidance this week, but the biggest company in the world by market cap is among them. We'll also hear from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 53,417. But the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.3% to 7,652, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had declined 0.8% to 25,980.

This week will be defined by the earnings calendar, with Nvidia (NVDA, -2.9%) reporting fiscal 2027 second-quarter results and management sharing its vision of where the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution goes from here after the closing bell on Wednesday.

"Geopolitics, oil prices, high yields, and tech volatility all contributed to last week's stock market pullback, and they all look to be in play this week, too," writes E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin.

Larkin notes that U.S. economic sanctions on Iran, the Treasury's attempts to lower long-term yields and incoming data, including the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, may shape sentiment. "But," he concludes," Nvidia and other tech earnings are positioned to be a major weight on the market's momentum scale."

At the same time, with Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum trending higher, the week could be redefined by the economic calendar, beginning on Friday at 10 am Eastern Standard Time.

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That's when Warsh makes his first keynote speech as the leader of the most important central bank in the world at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury inched up to 4.240% vs 4.234% on Friday. The 2-year yield was 3.379% on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran began.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to 4.706% from 4.738%, but is up from 3.960% on February 27. The 30-year Treasury yield declined to 5.235% vs 5.276% last week and 4.630% before the war.

The other chip stock on the earnings calendar

Marvell Technology (MRVL, -3.3%) follows fellow semiconductor stock Nvidia in the reporting-season order when it steps up after the closing bell on Thursday. But Marvell is ahead of Nvidia when it comes to year-to-date share-price performance, with MRVL up 179.3% vs 15.3% for NVDA (and 13.0% for the S&P 500) through Friday.

Wall Street expects MRVL management to report year-over-year earnings growth of 39% on revenue growth of 35%, pale compared to 99% and 97% growth anticipated for NVDA. Of course, much of Marvell's run is rooted in a $2 billion investment from Nvidia announced on March 31.

And there is significant demand elsewhere for its custom application-specific chips, and Wall Street is bullish. Indeed, Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price on the tech stock from $240 to $310, citing its opportunity in custom silicon.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore maintained his Equal Weight (Hold) rating but raised his 12-month target price from $195 to $224.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -2.7%), up 72.9% through Friday, was also down on Monday, as investors, traders and speculators continue to moderate their optimism with incoming data and updated guidance from Nvidia on the way.

Micron Technology (MU, -5.8%), which was up nearly 240% year to date through Friday, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -3.5%), up 121% in 2026, posted big red numbers.

Expedia is on the move again

Expedia (EXPE, +5.4%) was the top-performing S&P 500 stock on Monday after Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for the online travel agency from $375 to $430.

Mahaney had reiterated his rating and raised his target from $350 to $375 on August 6 following a beat-and-raise second-quarter report from management of the consumer discretionary stock. His current target is now the highest among 35 analysts who provide one.

Since hitting a 52-week low of $185.34 intraday on February 23, EXPE is up more than 70%, far outpacing a gain of about 14% for the S&P 500. Mahaney still sees upside of almost 30% from here.

The travel stock has split the Wall Street analyst community, reflected in 17 Buy ratings vs 20 Holds and 1 Sell. The average 12-month target price through August 21 was $336.23.

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The main equity indexes rebounded from Thursday's sharp sell-off, but all three were down for the week. The trend for Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum reflects growing concerns about persistent inflation, government debt and how the Federal Reserve will respond.

At the closing bell on Friday, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 1.0% to 53,277, but still finished the week lower by 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4% to 26,180, narrowing its weekly decline to 2.1%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,674, though the broad-based index lost 1.4% this week.

"It's not surprising that the S&P 500 pulled back modestly after its early-August breakout to new record highs," observes Daniel Skelly, head of research and strategy for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "But the move may have taken on additional significance in some circles, given the role tech softness played."

Skelly notes that although we may see more volatility in the near term due to seasonal factors, "the longer-term AI capex story remains positive."

Meanwhile, the bond market continues to adjust to a Treasury Department plan announced on Wednesday to increase buybacks of longer-dated debt.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up to 4.232% vs 4.185% on Thursday. The 2-year was at 4.171% last Friday. The 10-year Treasury ticked up to 4.736% from 4.698% on Thursday and 4.696% a week ago. The 30-year Treasury climbed to 5.274%, up from 5.237% yesterday and 5.266% at the end of last week.

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver the keynote address at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, August 28, the highlight of next week's economic calendar.

According to University of Pennsylvania Wharton School Professor Patrick Harker, a former president of the Philadelphia Fed, "Warsh is going to have to address the elephant in the room, which is inflation."

Nvidia's growth is about supply and demand

Nvidia (NVDA, -1.0%) will offer fresh evidence for Skelly and others who see more support for stocks from AI capex when the chipmaker takes another turn on the earnings calendar after the closing bell next Wednesday.

Wall Street expects management to report year-over-year earnings growth of 99.0% on annual revenue growth of 97.0%. "Notably," Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland writes in a preview of Nvidia's report, "AI demand is supported by increasing hyperscale capex plans. The top five hyperscalers are now expected to nearly double capex spend in 2026."

Rolland also highlights a constructive outlook for 2027, when capex is expected to exceed $1 trillion. "We still view Nvidia as having one of the largest opportunity sets ahead," the analyst concludes.

Indeed, as Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates writes, "Due to the anticipation of Nvidia's spectacular quarterly results, plus the fact that the financial media will be all excited about their annual trip to Jackson Hole for the annual Kansas City Fed Conference, investor optimism is expected to be sky-high next week."

HOOD tops the S&P 500

Robinhood Markets (HOOD, +12.9%) led S&P 500 stocks higher on Friday after President Donald Trump advocated for passage of federal legislation that would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets such as bitcoin during a White House summit on Thursday.

"We need Congress to take the next step by passing the Clarity Act — a fair version of the Clarity Act," Trump said in remarks prepared for the event. "It's a very, very powerful structured legislation which will keep us ahead of China, keep us ahead of everyone else, will open the door to the next wave of innovations and innovators."

Crypto trading platform Coinbase Global (COIN, +8.2%) and bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR, +6.1%) have also rallied on the president's recent endorsement of a broad bill to support digital assets.

Moderna (MRNA, +8.9%) was the second-best performer in the S&P 500, following its 177% rise on Wednesday and 24% fall on Thursday with another dramatic move.

Merck (MRK, +2.4%), Moderna's partner on the melanoma cancer vaccine that triggered this week's volatility, was second only to Goldman Sachs (GS, +3.7%) among Dow Jones stocks.

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Stocks opened lower Thursday and stayed in negative territory through the close. Weighing on sentiment today were bouncing Treasury yields. A disappointing round of retail earnings didn't help, either.

The main equity indexes snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday as bond yields fell following the Treasury Department's announcement that it will increase buybacks of longer-dated debt.

But yields on the 10-year Treasury (+5.1 basis points to 4.704%) and the 30-year Treasury (+5.4 basis points to 5.248%) resumed their climb today after a report released late Wednesday showed U.S. debt has crossed the $40 trillion mark.

Rising yields pressured the stock market, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closing down 1.0% at 26,067, the broader S&P 500 falling 0.9% to 7,641, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.3% to 52,759.

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Walmart has its worst day in four years on same-store sales miss

Walmart (WMT) was the worst Dow Jones stock today, sinking 9.2% — its worst day since May 16, 2022.

Ahead of the open, WMT reported better-than-expected fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings of 81 cents per share on revenue of $187.9 billion, but same-store sales growth of 2.6% fell short of what Wall Street anticipated.

The company also gave soft fiscal third-quarter guidance, even as it raised its full-year outlook.

"Walmart is not losing market share — contrary to what I heard after Target's earnings — in fact, the company continues to gain share across income tiers, driven by higher-income consumers seeking value," says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Wagner adds that the same-store sales miss was a result of "non-competitive factors" such as lower prescription drug prices, an ongoing shift toward e-commerce and delivery services, and "persistent cost pressures that prompted thousands of selective price cuts to aid budget-conscious shoppers."

The portfolio manager believes the blue chip stock's post-earnings pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Advance Auto Parts plummets after earnings

Fellow retailer Advance Auto Parts (AAP) also sold off sharply, falling 24.6% — its worst day since May 31, 2023 — after its turn on the earnings calendar. While the auto parts chain reported higher-than-expected earnings of $1.03 per share, revenue of $2 billion came up short of what analysts were calling for.

AAP also said same-store sales were down 0.5% from the year-ago period. "Total enterprise sales performance was impacted by the DIY channel as tighter household budgets constrained spending more than we anticipated, especially during the last four weeks of the quarter," explained Advanced Auto Parts CEO Shane O'Kelly in the earnings release.

Deere jumps to the top of the S&P 500 after earnings

Not all of the day's earnings reactions were negative. Deere (DE) jumped 6.9%, making it one of the best S&P 500 stocks today, after the farm equipment manufacturer reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $5.10 per share on revenue of $11 billion.

Wall Street anticipated earnings of $4.70 per share on revenue of $10.73 billion.

DE also raised the low end of its full-year net income forecast to $4.75 billion from $4.5 billion.

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Stocks snapped their three-day losing streak Wednesday after the Treasury Department stepped in to stabilize the bond market. A big rally in healthcare stocks also helped support the broader market, though upside was contained as several mega-cap tech stocks struggled.

The Treasury Department this morning said it will "at least double" the size of its buybacks for government bonds, from $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion. The increase will begin September 9 and run through November 4, and "reflects Treasury's desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors," according to a press release.

"Long-term Treasury yields had been under upward pressure amid uncertainty in interest rates, inflation, and the growing federal deficit," explains Tony Miano, global investment strategy analyst at Wealth & Investment Management at Wells Fargo.

The news sent the 10-year Treasury yield down 6.7 basis points to 4.639%, while the 30-year Treasury yield, which hit a 19-year high earlier this week, plummeted 10 basis points to 5.185%.

But while the Treasury Department's announcement provides short-term relief, Miana does not believe it changes the outlook for long-term yields. "The key drivers behind rising yields … remain in place," he says. "Until investors gain greater clarity on those issues, risks to long-term Treasury yields remain skewed to the upside."

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As for stocks, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 53,463, the broader S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 7,707, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% to 26,331.

Merck, Moderna stocks soar on positive cancer drug data

Merck (MRK) was easily the best Dow Jones stock today, surging 12.6% — its best day since 2009 — after a new mRNA skin cancer treatment jointly developed by the drugmaker and Moderna (MRNA) met its goals in a late-stage study when paired with MRK's Keytruda.

"This represents the first positive Phase 3 readout for an individualized neoantigen therapy (INT) and for an mRNA-based cancer therapy, as well as the first Phase 3 study to demonstrate a clinically meaningful improvement over KEYTRUDA alone, a standard-of-care immunotherapy, in the adjuvant setting for patients with resected melanoma," Merck stated in a news release.

MRNA shares surged 177% today, marking the large-cap stock's biggest one-day gain ever. It's also the first time since 2008 that an S&P 500 stock doubled in one day, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The news also lifted several vaccine makers, including Novovax (NVAX, +10.8%) and BioNTech (BNTX, +22.0%).

Target pops after earnings

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Target (TGT) jumped 4.3% after the retailer reported a beat-and-raise quarter.

TGT's fiscal second-quarter earnings received a $1.65 per-share boost from tariff refunds, while its comparable store sales came in at a better-than-expected 3.8%.

"The headline for Target was in the increased traffic [that] led to a strong jump in same store comps," says Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. "These are metrics that they have needed to meet to demonstrate that their turnaround is working and operations are getting better."

Mulberry adds that this is a "meaningfully positive quarter for Target," but the retailer now needs "to show consistency and [that] this was not a one-off success."

Marvell outperforms on Google news

While several mega-cap tech stocks, including Broadcom (AVGO, -4.6%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -3.7%), closed lower Wednesday, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 9.9% after the chip designer expanded a deal with Alphabet's (GOOGL, +0.2%) Google.

The agreement builds on a partnership between the two companies to build new custom artificial intelligence chips and gives Google the option to buy up to $12.2 billion in MRVL stock over time if it purchases large amounts of chips.

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Stocks closed lower for a third straight session Tuesday as market participants fretted about sky-high bond yields and the ongoing war in Iran. A sell-off in chip stocks also weighed on sentiment.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% at 53,343, the broader S&P 500 was 0.7% lower at 7,691, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.3% at 26,289.

Treasury yields also finished the day lower, but not before the 30-year yield hit a fresh 19-year intraday high.

Bond yields are rising even as the recent batch of soft inflation and jobs data lowers the odds of a September rate hike, says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

"Instead, the long end is responding to persistent inflation risks, heavy government borrowing and growing competition for capital — including debt issuance associated with the AI investment boom," she explains. "That creates an uncomfortable environment for equities because financial conditions can tighten even without the Fed raising rates."

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Higher oil prices are only adding to this inflation risk. Today, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $84.94 per barrel after President Donald Trump said there are currently no talks happening between the U.S. and Iran and no plans to start them.

Bond yields weigh on chip stocks

Tech stocks were a notable area of weakness on Tuesday, due in part to higher borrowing costs. Semiconductor stocks, in particular, took a beating, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) slumping 5.0% as fund heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA, -2.3%), Micron Technology (MU, -7.0%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -4.3%) sold off.

Chip stocks have rebounded in recent weeks, with SOXX rising nearly 11% for the month to date through Monday's close following a 21% drop in July.

Housing data disappoints

Higher borrowing costs are also weighing on the housing market, as evidenced by today's economic data.

According to the Census Bureau, housing starts fell 12.5% from June to July, to a lower-than-expected 1.24 million. This is down 13.5% year over year.

Separate data from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales fell 2.3% from June to July, hitting their lowest level since January.

"Housing disappointed in July," says Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. "The big headwind from high mortgage rates looks likely to persist into 2027."

Adams adds that buyers also have more options right now as folks who delayed selling their homes when mortgage rates started rising "are gradually accepting the new normal and listing their homes, providing buyers more options outside of new construction."

Home Depot takes aim at Amazon

Home Depot (HD, -0.1%) Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail called out "frozen housing conditions" in the home improvement retailer's earnings call this morning.

"While consumer uncertainty and housing affordability continue to pressure demand for larger home improvement projects, we remain focused on what we can control, our strategy of driving our core and culture, delivering a frictionless interconnected experience and winning the Pro," explained McPhail.

In its fiscal second quarter, Home Depot said its Pro segment outperformed DIY (do-it-yourself) and posted positive comparable store sales. Total comparable store sales for the company rose 1.7% in Q2 — the biggest increase since 2022 and higher than the 0.9% rise Wall Street anticipated. Earnings and revenue also beat expectations.

The comparable store sales number was impressive, says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, but his attention is more focused on the retailer's three-hour delivery announcement.

"Home Depot announced it's launching express delivery nationwide, promising orders within three hours or less," Wagner explains. "It's a direct shot at Amazon/Walmart-style speed competition, aimed at capturing the 'I need this part now to finish the project today' pro and DIY customer — a use case where Home Depot has a structural edge (2,300+ stores close to where people live) that pure e-commerce players can't easily match."

With big-ticket renovations still on hold due to higher mortgage rates, Wagner says this move echoes the broader theme of the quarter: "Home Depot is leaning hard into speed and convenience to win the smaller, more frequent project spend that's currently driving growth."

Klarna sinks 23% after earnings

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Klarna (KLAR) plunged 22.8% after the buy now, pay later firm reported earnings.

While KLAR beat on the top and bottom lines for its second quarter, it lowered its full-year outlook for gross merchandise volume (GMV) — a key metric for fintechs — due to "a more measured view of European volumes in the second half, particularly in Germany, our largest market by volume," the company said.

Klarna also said its chief financial officer and chief marketing officer will step down early next year.

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The main equity indexes were down after a low-volume late-summer trading session on Monday, as the uncertainty of war in the Middle East outweighed the certainty of solid earnings and revenue growth. Investors, traders and speculators are pulling back bets on rate hikes after cooler-than-forecast July consumer inflation and retail sales data. But the bond market continues to reflect longer-term concerns.

President Donald Trump urged Iran to "put up the white flag of surrender" in a pre-opening bell phone conversation with Fox News, during which he also threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of U.S. negotiations to open the Strait of Hormuz.

"The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon," Trump posted on Truth Social at around the same time. "I have no time schedule," a multitasking Trump told Fox News. "I'm not in a hurry."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was higher by 2.5% to $84.45 per barrel. WTI declined to $67.04 intraday on July 2, just above its pre-war closing price of $67.02 on February 27 and vs a 52-week high of $119.48 on March 19.

The 2-year Treasury yield rose from 4.171% on Friday to 4.182% today, though the indicator of short-term Fed intentions has come down about 20 basis points from a 52-week high of 4.377% on July 24.

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The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.724% from 4.696% on Friday, and the 30-year Treasury yield was up from 5.266% to 5.310%, reaching a new 19-year high in the process.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.5% to 53,459, the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.5% to 7,745, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.3% to 26,644.

How healthy are earnings

Most of the S&P 500 has already reported, and results from the earnings calendar are good. Indeed, as Ritholtz Wealth Management research associate Matt Cerminaro calculates, the overall year-over-year earnings growth rate is tracking to 32.2%.

In the aftermath of an unexpected decline in retail sales in July, reports from Home Depot (HD, -0.2%) tomorrow morning and Walmart (WMT, -0.8%) on Thursday morning will offer more color about the state of the consumer.

Still, as Cerminaro notes, 10 sectors are expected to report earnings growth, and eight are expected to post double-digit growth. And that bottom-line growth rate: "Talk about running it hot," Cerminaro says. "That number is on fire."

Indeed, all 11 stock market sectors defined by S&P Global are on track to grow revenue, with an overall annual rate for the S&P 500 of 15.4%, the strongest rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.

That's not all: "These companies are crushing estimates, raising guidance, and their stock prices are following suit. It's exactly what you want to see in a healthy bull market."

Why AMZN can hit $500

Amazon (AMZN, -0.5%) has had only a so-so 2026 so far. The e-commerce giant, cloud computing juggernaut and bellwether consumer discretionary stock posted a total return of 13.8% through Friday vs 14.5% for the S&P 500.

AMZN is trading around $260 today, up from around $230 at the end of 2025. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak, there's reason to believe the stock could hit $500 by the end of 2027, most notably on the opportunity for Amazon Web Services.

"We can debate the long-term margins of a GenAI enabled AWS," Nowak writes, "but if AMZN management's comments on AI tracking toward similar margins and returns as core cloud are in the right ballpark, this likely implies ~30% EBIT margins."

According to Nowak, that means about $1 trillion of AWS revenue and approximately $300 billion AWS EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) over the next eight to 10 years. "Layering in reasonable Retail assumptions, this would imply AMZN is set to generate approximately $500 billion of EBIT in 2034-2036 … and that company wide EBIT could CAGR at a 16-20% rate."

The analyst reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating, as well as his $335 12-month target price. Even from Nowak's "base case," there's about 29% of upside from here for AMZN.

What made SNDK pop again

Sandisk (SNDK, +8.9%) was the hottest of S&P 500 stocks on Monday in the aftermath of a warmly received "investor day" presentation last Thursday highlighted by management's long-term guidance, as well as an ambitious stock buyback plan.

As Bernstein analyst Mark Newman reports, management of the memory device and solution provider forecast mid- to high-teens volume growth and stable pricing through fiscal 2030. "The company also guided long-term gross margin around 80%," Newman writes, "which was better than expected."

Sandisk also announced that 100% of free cash flow (FCF) will be returned to shareholders and hinted that most, if not all, of this FCF will be used to buy back shares.

"Using even the most conservative of estimates for free cash flow," Newman says, "Sandisk can buy back 47% of shares outstanding in the next four years of free cash flow generation at current share prices."

Newman reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating and his $3,000 12-month target price for SNDK.

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Stocks finished the week on a negative note as market participants sifted through the latest batch of earnings and economic reports. And while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower for the week, the broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extended their weekly win streaks to three.

At today's close, the Dow was staring at a one-day decline of 0.2% at 53,732, the S&P 500 was off 0.2% at 7,785, and the Nasdaq was 0.3% lower at 26,729.

Despite Friday's quiet finish, the three main equity indexes are near record highs — and they remain "in something of a sweet spot for now," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

This week's soft inflation data has diminished the threat of a Federal Reserve rate hike, Hathorn explains, while earnings remain supportive.

B. Riley says to buy the dip on hot AMAT stock

Applied Materials (AMAT) was the biggest name on the earnings calendar, though the chip equipment maker shed 5.1% after reporting its fiscal third-quarter results late Thursday.

AMAT beat on the top and bottom lines and gave fiscal fourth-quarter guidance that beat the Street's estimates. But B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis says some investors may have been hoping for greater near-term gross margin upside.

Gross margin tells you how much revenue a company keeps after deducting costs required to make its products or services. AMAT said it expects fiscal Q4 gross margin to be flat on a quarter-to-quarter basis, at 50.4%.

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But Ellis believes today's post-earnings pullback represents a buying opportunity on a company poised for "high-visibility EPS expansion." He has a Buy rating on AMAT and a $700 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 40% on a stock that's already doubled for the year to date.

Next week, we'll start to hear from some of the country's biggest retailers, including Home Depot (HD, -0.8%), which reports on Tuesday. Walmart (WMT, -0.4%) takes its turn on the earnings stage Thursday morning.

Retail sales unexpectedly fall

Ahead of these key updates on consumer spending, data from the Census Bureau this morning showed that retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% in July. Economists expected a 0.1% increase.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index also fell short of estimates, with August's preliminary reading sinking to 51.0 from July's 55.2.

"A colossal double miss on retail sales and consumer sentiment is worrying investors, who fear that affordability pressures, dwindling savings and reduced hiring could mean the economy's engine is on its last legs," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The disappointing data follows "stronger tax refunds that were providing relief to personal wallets," he adds, and "with that source of fiscal stimulus behind us, market participants are rightfully concerned about the potential for further deterioration in consumer momentum."

Reddit will join the S&P 500 on Tuesday

Elsewhere on Wall Street today, Reddit (RDDT) popped 12.6% after S&P Global said the social media platform will join the S&P 500 ahead of the open this Tuesday, August 18.

RDDT will replace AvalonBay Communities (AVB, +0.1%), which is merging with fellow real estate investment trust (REIT) Equity Residential (EQR, 0.0%).

"Stocks tend to get a lift from inclusion in the S&P 500 because many trillions of passive dollars are held in products that track the index," explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows.

The Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO), the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the world, has $1.7 trillion in assets under management — and is just one of many funds that will now have to buy shares in RDDT.

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Stocks opened higher again Thursday thanks to another encouraging inflation update, but finished off their session highs as market participants parsed a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports. Still, the three main indexes finished in positive territory — one at a new record high — as chip stocks extended their recent rebound.

Ahead of the opening bell, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses pay suppliers for goods, was unchanged from June to July and was 4.7% higher year over year.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and was up 4.2% over the past 12 months.

The results were softer than economists expected and follow Wednesday's in-line July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

"The PPI data combined with what we know about CPI tells us that the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core personal consumption expenditures index, continues to run closer to 3% rather than 2%," says Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.

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This means the Federal Reserve still has an inflation problem, Varghese explains, "but the recent softness likely strengthens the case for doves on the committee who want to wait things out."

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability the central bank keeps the federal funds rate unchanged at its September meeting — up from 45% one week ago.

Cisco Systems sinks after earnings

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged its peers on Thursday, finishing up 0.1% at 53,839, as Cisco Systems (CSCO) slumped 8.4% — its worst day since February — after earnings.

The networking equipment specialist reported higher-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and gave upbeat fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance.

But UBS Global Research analyst David Vogt believes investor focus has shifted to Cisco's full-year forecast, "particularly the implied gross margin and the anticipated revenue deceleration from more than 20% growth in F1Q to the low double digits in H2:27, largely because of tougher comparisons."

Profit-taking could also be responsible for Cisco's sharp decline today. Heading into Thursday's session, the Dow Jones stock had surged 67% in the past six months.

Regardless of the reason, Vogt sees "any share-price weakness as an attractive buying opportunity."

Chip stocks send the S&P 500 to a new high

Elsewhere on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,798 — a new record closing high — and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8% to 26,803, as several chip stocks extended their recent rebound.

Sandisk (SNDK), for one, soared 13.7% today, and is now up 26% for the month to date. And Micron Technology (MU) jumped 4.2% to bring its August gain to nearly 16% so far. In July, SNDK plunged 31.6% and MU fell 16.4%.

Workday stock trading halted on takeover chatter

Workday (WDAY) was another tech stock that saw notable gains on Thursday, closing up 17.8% after intraday trading was temporarily halted on reports that Silver Lake is in talks to buy the human resources software company.

According to Reuters, the private equity firm's proposed buyout of Workday, which had a market value of $43.7 billion at Tuesday's close, could be among the biggest software buyouts ever.

WDAY shares fell 16.8% in 2025 and were down 18.4% for the year to date through the August 12 close.

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Stocks opened higher Wednesday thanks to a tame inflation report. A reinvigorated AI trade, courtesy of several well-received earnings reports, kept equities mostly higher into the close, with one of the three main indexes nearing a new record high.

The broader S&P 500 finished up 0.3% at 7,748 — just shy of last Friday's all-time closing high of 7,757.67 — and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.5% to 26,588. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average turned lower in the final minutes of the session, finishing down 0.04% at 53,770.

Things got off to a solid start this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% from June to July and was up 3.4% year over year.

This matched economists' expectations, while the 12-month rate rose at a slower pace than June's 3.5% increase.

Cooling energy prices had a positive impact on headline inflation, but even core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was mild. Core inflation rose 0.2% month over month and was 2.5% higher year over year. This compares to June's flat monthly reading 2.6% annual increase.

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"For the Federal Reserve, this is a helpful report rather than an all-clear," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "Inflation is moving in the right direction despite the earlier energy shock, while recent weakness in the labor market gives policymakers even less reason to consider another rate increase in September."

But inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, Hathorn adds, meaning the central bank "is unlikely to declare victory yet, especially after Kevin Warsh was adamant to point out his focus on making sure that high inflation does not become detrimental to the U.S. economy."

Still, the July CPI report lowered expectations that the Fed will hike rates next month. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will keep the federal funds rate unchanged next month — up from 52% one day ago.

Super Micro, CoreWeave stocks soar on earnings

Well-received earnings reports from several artificial intelligence companies also lifted sentiment on Wednesday.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI), for one, was the best S&P 500 stock today, surging 19% after the AI server, software and infrastructure company disclosed higher-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and gave strong fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance.

"We added several hundred enterprise and other customers in the past year, generated more than $60 billion in new orders, and booked record backlog entering fiscal 2027," said Super Micro Computer CEO Charles Liang in the press release.

CoreWeave (CRWV), meanwhile, jumped 19.3% after the AI cloud platform said second-quarter revenue more than doubled year over year — and that it expects more of the same in Q3.

"We believe CRWV is positioned to capture meaningful share of an AI cloud provider market growing at a server-melting pace, and we continue to see growing demand for CRWV's platform," says Mizuho Americas analyst Gregg Moskowitz.

However, the analyst cautions that the AI stock's risk/reward is "somewhat balanced given some ongoing uncertainty about the magnitude of CRWV's revenue upside over the near term."

Nebius pops 34% after earnings

While Wednesday's gains for Super Micro and CoreWeave stocks are certainly impressive, Nebius Group (NBIS) emerged as the day's hottest stock — popping 34.1% after the AI cloud infrastructure company said revenue surged more than fivefold in its second quarter, to $582.3 million.

Nebius' results show that "AI compute demand is insatiable and pricing is strengthening, not weakening," says Luke Lango, lead technology and cryptocurrency analyst at InvestorPlace.

Short sellers may have helped Nebius' red-hot rally, too. Nearly 25% of NBIS' stock is sold short, meaning speculators bet that its share price would drop. When a stock starts to soar, short sellers are forced to buy back the shares they sold short in order to contain their losses — and we may have seen some of that in today's price action.

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The main stock indexes drifted lower as crude oil prices and interest rates moved mostly sideways on Tuesday. Investors, traders and speculators are waiting for this week's incoming inflation data before they make any major moves. We know earnings season has been big for top- and bottom-line beats, as well as for AI hyperscaler budget growth. Less certain, still, is the situation in the Middle East and who controls the Strait of Hormuz.

"Corporate earnings are now so strong that the wild trading swings that occurred in July have been muted by the reality that record sales, earnings, positive guidance, and rising order backlogs are real," observes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates. According to FactSet, based on results for 88% of the S&P 500, 86% have reported a positive earnings surprise, and 76% have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Earnings growth so far is 50.4%, the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021 (91.6%). Reported revenue growth to date is 15.0%, the best figure since the fourth quarter of 2021 (16.1%). All 11 sectors have reported year-over-year revenue growth; five have posted double-digit rates, with energy stocks, technology and communication services stocks leading the way.

At the same time, in the aftermath of a cooler-than-expected July jobs report, the primary factor driving price action this week is inflation. All eyes are on the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report before the opening bell on Wednesday.

Whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises its target range for the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the September Fed meeting is now almost literally a 50-50 proposition. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & Co. raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 49.9%.

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The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 1.6% on Tuesday to $83.45 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield inched back to 4.224% from 4.239%, the 10-year was down to 4.692% from 4.698%, and the 30-year ticked lower to 5.242% from 5.243%.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.6% to 26,445, the broad-based S&P 500 was lower by 0.3% to 7,728, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 0.3% to 53,791.

AI stocks are set to report

AI native cloud computing platform CoreWeave (CRWV, +2.4%) and AI infrastructure supplier Super Micro Computer (SMCI, +0.5%) make an appearance on the earnings calendar after today's close.

Wall Street expects CoreWeave, one of the hottest IPOs of 2025, to report triple-digit revenue growth, roughly in line with its most recent two quarters, and to update markets on a backlog that was $99 billion at last check. Analysts also expect Super Micro's top-line growth to exceed 100%, with new orders pre-reported at about $60 billion also on their collective mind.

Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA, -0.02%) has reasserted itself atop the global market cap rankings, as markets seem to approve of a new $500 billion plan to support AI infrastructure spending.

Intel (INTC, +0.2%) is also seeing a positive reaction to its upsized $20 billion offering of new shares, as the semiconductor stock seeks to expand its capacity. Intel reported expectations-beating results and raised full-year guidance on July 23.

Nvidia will unofficially bring down the curtain on the current reporting season when the biggest mover of the AI boom reveals its fiscal 2027 second-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, August 26.

CAH rises to and retreats from a new all-time high

Cardinal Health (CAH, +1.2%) was among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks early on Tuesday and traded up to a new all-time high intraday after the medical services and products provider reported mixed fourth-quarter results but shared strong guidance for fiscal 2027.

CAH missed Wall Street's earnings estimate and beat on revenue for the three months ending June 30. But management expects earnings per share of $12.40 to $12.60 next fiscal year, which represents year-over-year growth of 13% to 15%, and is well ahead of a FactSet-compiled consensus of $12.08 at the midpoint.

The company forecast 3% to 5% growth in revenue from its pharmaceuticals business, 2% to 4% growth for medical products and distribution. Guidance includes an uplift from the completed acquisition of Strive Medical and the announced deal to buy diabetes assets from AdaptHealth (AHCO, +8.2%).

CAH, a sleeper blue-chip stock, has generated a total return of more than 400% over the trailing five years vs less than 90% for the S&P 500. CAH is also outpacing the S&P 500 over the trailing 12 months (52.2% to 22.8%), as well as year to date (16.2% to 14.0%) through Monday.

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The main stock indexes were lower on Monday as oil prices and interest rates surged amid what looks more and more like a stalemate at the Strait of Hormuz. Investors, traders and speculators cast wary eyes on the Middle East ahead of the release of consumer and producer inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday.

A cooler-than-expected July jobs report lifted odds the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will stay on pause when it meets again in September. Price action shifted back in favor of a rate hike today, though, as it appeared any durable peace in the Middle East will leave Iran in control of traffic through the critical channel connecting Persian Gulf oil and gas production to global markets.

"The S&P 500's breakout from a nearly two-month trading range could get a test this week from inflation and geopolitics," E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Managing Director Chris Larkin writes. "The jobs report may have eased some anxieties about a Fed rate hike next month, but those concerns could hit new highs without cooler-than-expected inflation numbers this week."

As Larkin notes, last week's rally was based on enthusiasm about a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "Without a deal on the table," he cautions, "markets may be less likely to respond positively to vague reports about progress in negotiations."

The main event on this week's economic calendar is the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will follow on Thursday.

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The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 4.9% on Monday to $82.05 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.241% vs 4.204% on Friday. The 10-year was up to 4.705% from 4.658%, the 30-year to 5.249% from 5.210%.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.3% to 26,605, the broad-based S&P 500 was lower by 0.06% to 7,753, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 0.1% to 53,975.

Jefferies says AAPL is a sell

Apple (AAPL, -1.5%) was one of the worst-performing Dow Jones stocks on Monday after a team of Jefferies analysts led by Edison Lee downgraded the iPhone maker from Hold to Underperform, the equivalent of a Sell rating.

"Our supply chain checks suggest that the all-glass iPhone has been canceled due to low yield," they write. "We view this as a major setback to efforts to bring in higher-priced iPhones amid soaring memory costs."

The analysts had forecast a September 2027 release of the all-glass iPhone. Higher costs and a lower average selling price (ASP) is a dynamic that's going to pressure Apple's margins and its earnings per share.

"More importantly," Lee & Co. write, "we believe the plan was to extend the all-glass features to future iPhone Pro and Pro Max models, further raising their ASP and margin."

Canceling all-glass iPhone models lowers the analysts' estimated compound annual growth rate for the iPhone ASP between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2031 from 9.0% to 6.8%.

Berkshire gets an earnings bounce

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +1.5%) rallied to a new 52-week high and to within a modest "up" day of a new all-time high after management reported an expectations-beating operating profit (PDF) for the second quarter.

CEO Greg Abel is deploying the cash pile that seemed to define the last several quarters of Warren Buffett's run as the top stock-picker for the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. Abel also increased the pace of stock buybacks during the quarter.

BRK.B established its all-time closing high of $539.30 on May 2, 2025, the day before Buffett announced his retirement as CEO at Berkshire's annual meeting. Buffett did say in mid-July that he led the effort to add Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, +0.9%) to the Berkshire portfolio.

UBS Managing Director Brian Meredith reiterated his Buy rating and raised his 12-month target price from $585 to $604, citing Berkshire's "strong balance sheet, upside to earnings from operational improvements, and deployment of excess cash into accretive acquisitions and/or share repurchases."

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Investors, traders and speculators pushed interest rates lower and stocks higher after softer-than-expected incoming data suggested there's little if any inflation pressure from the labor market right now. Risk-on momentum held up during a relatively quiet early August trading session, and two of the three main equity indexes made all-time weekly closing highs at its end.

Traders in the federal funds rate futures market took the odds of a rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) from 55% on Thursday to 45% following the release of the July jobs report before the opening bell on Friday.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 0.5% to $76.94 per barrel. WTI was down 9.1% this week, as interested parties continue to seek solutions to open the Strait of Hormuz acceptable to both Iran and the U.S.

The 2-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.195% today from 4.245% on Thursday. The market-based measure of short-term monetary policy intentions was down 10 basis points this week from 4.291% last Friday.

The 10-year was down to 4.641% from 4.670% yesterday and 4.745% last week, and the 30-year fell to 5.192% vs 5.212% and 5.275%. There was no immediate reaction at the longer end of the yield curve to President Donald Trump reviving his effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

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Markets will look forward to next week's economic calendar and the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July before the opening bell on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

At the closing bell on Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 1.3% for the day and 5,2% for the week to 26,690. The broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.6% and 3.6% to 7,757, an all-time high, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 0.3% and 3.0% to 54,036, an all-time weekly closing high.

SPCX didn't go down today

SpaceX (SPCX, +15.8%) has had a historically bad flight in the aftermath of the biggest IPO in stock market history, opening at $150 on June 12 and rising to $225.64 intraday on June 16, but falling to an all-time low of $104.83 on Monday.

Management reported expectations-beating second-quarter results after the closing bell on Tuesday, but SPCX was down 13.6% on Wednesday. The fact that Elon Musk's extraterrestrial venture posted a gain today is noteworthy because it marks the end of a four-week losing streak.

Indeed, SPCX was up 22.8% this week. According to JP Morgan analyst Arun Jain, retail investors are into SpaceX to the tune of approximately $3.6 billion since June 12.

The stock is going to be volatile as more supply of shares come to the market during what will be an extended series of lock-up expirations. We'll see whether there's demand to meet that supply over the coming months.

DOCS gets a big assist from AI

Officially, Doximity (DOCS, +32.6%) is a healthcare stock. That's just what S&P Global says, though. Today, it's trading on AI. And the trading is good.

DOCS closed at $20.66 on Thursday but traded as high as $64.99 in the pre-market on Friday and peaked at $39.99 during the regular session before closing at $27.40.

That's despite the fact that management missed Wall Street's second-quarter revenue and earnings forecast and came up short of analysts' consensus top-line estimate for the third quarter.

This move was all about the conference call and how Doximity appears to be differentiating from other software stocks. "We're the doctors' digital platform," CEO Jeff Tangney said, "and AI is just the next chapter in our growth."

Management noted that the Doximity Ask AI outperformed Anthropic’s Fable 5 and other models in a recent study of medical AI tools conducted by Stanford and Harvard. Tangney noted too that usage rates for Doximity’s tools have surged during the current quarter.

The CEO also emphasized that Doximity shows it's possible to generate strong software margins while investing in AI. "We’re leaning in as we see a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build the new AI age of medicine."

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Markets were mostly lower on Thursday as oil prices and interest rates rose amid uncertainty about the U.S. position on a deal between Oman and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While we're still seeing strong data from the earnings calendar, price action today reflected both high expectations, as well as concern for the future.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 3.6% to $77.93 per barrel. The Islamic Republic's semi-official Fars news agency reported that Iran wants to ban American and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz. Fars also said Iran is seeking compensation from the U.S. and Israel before they're permitted to transit the passage from the Persian Gulf to global markets.

The 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.243% today from 4.179% on Wednesday; the 10-year was up to 4.664% from 4.617% and the 30-year rose to 5.205% vs 5.173%.

Markets will get some big-picture perspective from the economic calendar when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July jobs report before the opening bell on Friday.

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At the closing bell on Thursday, the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.2% at 7,710, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 0.9% to 53,885, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 0.06% at 26,348.

Sandisk's guidance is soft

Sandisk (SNDK, -6.8%), which has been one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks since joining the index in November, recovered from its intraday lows. But the flash storage specialist still suffered another steep loss because it fell short of great expectations.

Management reported exponential year-over-year growth at the top and bottom lines for its fiscal fourth quarter, and the tech stock topped Wall Street's forecast for revenue and earnings per share.

But Sandisk guided to fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, and analysts wanted to see $10.82 billion. Margin guidance of 83% to 85% was also disappointing relative to a fourth-quarter figure of 84.6%.

Still, the bigger picture for earnings is bright, as Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates notes, with 71% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting so far this season.

"Revenues are running 3.8% higher than analyst consensus estimates, while earnings are coming in at 7.3% higher than analyst consensus estimates," Navellier says. Seventy-seven percent have reported revenue surprises, and 83% have reported earnings surprises.

"Interestingly," Navellier concludes, "this is also the twelfth quarter in a row where earnings are exceeding sales growth, which is indicative of profit margin expansion."

Why DAVE was so down today

Dave (DAVE, -15.1%) is a digital banking platform, and as recently as January it looked more like a small-cap stock than a mid-cap stock.

A year-to-date gain of more than 94% through Wednesday pushed it well into the higher market cap neighborhood. The reaction to Dave's second-quarter earnings report is bringing it back down.

Dave, which describes itself as "one of the nation's leading neobanks," reported earnings of $4.12 per share, year-over-year growth of 48.2%. And revenue was up 29.7% to $170.8 million.

It's those year-over-year growth figures: They're slowing down. A year ago, Dave reported EPS growth of 263%. Then it was 196%, 93% and 64%.

The trajectory for revenue growth is a little like Hemingway's line from "The Sun Also Rises." It went from 64% a year ago to 63% to 62% to 47% when management reported first-quarter results.

Thirty percent annual revenue growth doesn't exactly suggest "bankruptcy." But there is a "gradually, then suddenly" feel to its failure to keep up with the law of big numbers.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 gapped up to new all-time highs at the opening bell on Wednesday, lifted by relative quiet in the Middle East and solid data from the earnings calendar. Heavy exposure to hot AI-related names weighed on the Nasdaq Composite, as markets remain concerned about Big Tech's spending plans.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.5% to 54,349, another new record closing high. But the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.2% to 7,723 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8% to 26,363.

All three remain near their respective peaks despite "no shortage of crosscurrents" to navigate, as LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist observes. Turnquist cites the war in the Middle East and higher oil prices, as well as rising interest rates and shifting expectations about how the Federal Reserve will respond to inflation under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 0.9% to $75.10 per barrel amid another pause in hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked lower to 4.179% from 4.194% on Tuesday, while the 10-year was at 4.615% vs 4.627% and the 30-year dipped to 5.171% from 5.189%.

Markets are also looking forward to the release of the July jobs report before the opening bell on Friday, the main event on this week's economic calendar.

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Turnquist notes that semiconductor stocks traded down more than 20%, meeting the technical definition of a bear market while investors, traders and speculators "demanded evidence that rising capital expenditures were translating into meaningful returns" for the AI trade.

"Despite these challenges," he says, "the S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient," with capital rotating out of communication services stocks, for example, and into healthcare stocks. As Turnquist concludes, "Fundamental conditions have also remained constructive, supported by an economy that continues to grow and corporate earnings."

Indeed: Amgen (AMGN, +4.6%) was the best-performing Dow Jones stocks on Wednesday after management of the biotechnology giant reported expectations-beating second-quarter results and raised full-year guidance.

SpaceX had a lot of gravity

SpaceX (SPCX, -13.6%), on the other hand, cratered in response to its first earnings report as a publicly traded company. Management beat expectations, but not by enough after the biggest IPO in stock market history.

Management said it will expand Starlink Mobile into a full-fledged wireless carrier to compete with telecoms such as AT&T (T, -1.3%), T-Mobile USA (TMUS, -2.1%) and Verizon Communications (VZ, -0.9%).

But Elon Musk downplayed talk of selling China-based electric vehicle operations so Tesla (TSLA, -1.8%) can merge with SpaceX and combine their AI operations.

Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -7.0%) sold off hard on word from SpaceX that it will work only with Nvidia (NVDA, +3.4%) to supply the chips and related infrastructure it requires to achieve its extraterrestrial ambitions.

Walt Disney tells another good story

Walt Disney (DIS, +3.7%) beat Wall Street expectations for its fiscal third-quarter bottom line, reporting earnings of $2.05 per share vs a forecast of $1.86. Top-line growth of 6.8% to $25.2 billion fell just short of analysts' estimate of $25.4 billion.

But management reiterated its guidance for double-digit EPS growth for the current fiscal year, as well as for fiscal 2027, and a new leader remains optimistic about the company's near-term trajectory.

"Decades of IP investment have built deep fan connections that translateinto strong financial results," CEO Josh D'Amaro (PDF) said, citing accelerating global guests growth at its theme parks, the success of "Toy Story 5" at the box office and ESPN viewership gains. "Together, our results show a unique ability to engage consumers at scale, both digitally and physically, even amid macro uncertainty."

The consumer discretionary stock enjoyed a similar bounce in May following D'Amaro's first reported quarter as CEO; he replaced Bob Iger in March. But it was down more than 13% year to date through Tuesday while the S&P 500 was up almost 14%. Its trailing-12-month, five- and 10-year comparisons are similarly unfavorable.

In fact, despite the high quality of its intellectual property, DIS has been a buy-and-hold bust, as Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows writes.

"While it's true that you can manipulate historical returns by fussing with their beginning and end points," Burrows explained earlier this year, "Disney's record vs the broader market over pretty much any standardized period you care to measure is terrible." For the past 20 years specifically, DIS' average annualized return has trailed the S&P 500 by more than 4 percentage points.

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It was another record-setting session for stocks Tuesday as Wall Street cheered the latest round of earnings reports. A big bounce for chip stocks and hope on the geopolitical front also fueled the day's upside.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.7% at 54,085 and the broader S&P 500 was 1.8% higher at 7,736 — new record closes — while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 2.6% to 26,584.

"Optimism about an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with upbeat corporate earnings, has stocks soaring to fresh records," explains José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Torres cites comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC that the U.S. and Iran could reach a deal to open the strait as soon as today.

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This sent front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 5.7% to $75.77 per barrel, while yields on 2-year (-6.2 basis points to 4.194%), 10-year (-7.3 basis points to 4.612%) and 30-year (-5.9 basis points to 5.17%) Treasuries also declined.

Bessent's remarks drove "crude prices and interest rates south as market participants adjust their oil supply outlooks upward while reducing inflation expectations and Fed rate-hike probabilities, reflecting a greater likelihood of softening cost pressures from restored traffic through the passage," says Torres.

Palantir stock soars after "otherworldly" earnings

Earnings were also a hot topic on Tuesday, with several stocks soaring in the wake of their results.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR), for one, climbed 29.5% — easily making it the day's best S&P 500 stock — after the data analytics platform said second-quarter revenue surged 93% year over year to $1.94 billion, while earnings more than doubled to 41 cents per share.

"This quarter was otherworldly," said Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp. "Demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed."

The company also gave higher-than-expected third-quarter guidance and raised its full-year forecast.

"We view the strengthening Palantir results as a reflection of a successful AI strategy that focuses on providing the right infrastructure to maximize its customers' results," says BofA Securities analyst Mariana Perez Mora. "PLTR's sovereign AI approach levers on decades of experience working on national security and highly regulated missions to create the right control layer."

The analyst has a Buy rating and $255 price target on PLTR, almost 60% above where the AI stock is trading.

The earnings calendar stays busy, too, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) set to report after tonight's close. The chipmaker joined its peers in a broad rally today, climbing 7.0%.

Bezos unloads $4.1 billion in Amazon shares

One blue chip stock that sat out the day's surge was Amazon (AMZN), which fell 2.3% on news that founder and former CEO Jeff Bezos is selling 15 million shares worth roughly $4.1 billion.

A Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing disclosed the sale, originally scheduled on November 14, 2025, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan that prevents insider trading.

Bezos' timing is impeccable, though. Amazon shares jumped more than 15% last Friday on strong earnings and hit a record high on Monday. They're also up 20% for the year to date.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate Monday after President Donald Trump on Sunday canceled planned attacks against Iran. Tumbling oil prices and Treasury yields also boosted sentiment at the start of the month, with one of the main benchmarks closing at a new record high.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said that the United States was "locked and loaded," but he decided to "cancel the attack" against Iran after "perimeters of a deal" had been agreed to.

Trump added that the agreement will include the "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat."

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures plunged more than 6% to $79.49 per barrel in response, while yields on the 2-year (-4.1 basis points to 4.25%), 10-year (-5.7 basis points to 4.686%) and 30-year (-4.2 basis points to 5.233%) Treasuries tumbled.

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As for equities, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1.3% to 53,178 — a new record closing high — the broader S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,600, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.1% to 25,913.

The stock market got "an early boost from falling oil," says Chris Larkin, managing director of Trading and Investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, "but the on-again, off-again nature of U.S-Iran diplomacy could mean earnings and jobs data will have to do the heavy lifting for the bulls this week."

SpaceX highlights busy earnings calendar

Corporate earnings have been impressive so far. "Despite mixed reactions to mega-cap Tech results, underlying fundamentals remain strong," write BofA Securities strategists Savita Subramanian and Victoria Roloff. "The earnings-per-share beat rate is at its highest level since 2021, with 77% of companies exceeding consensus expectations, well above the 66% post-week 3 average."

This week's earnings calendar is a busy one, too. SpaceX (SPCX, +5.7%) is arguably the most noteworthy name reporting, with Elon Musk's mega-cap space company making its first appearance on the earnings stage as a publicly traded company.

"Revenues, EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization], Starlink subs, ARPU, AI pricing, Cursor ARR [annual recurring revenue], fiscal year capex guide… all of these matter," says Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

But the bigger issue for investors, says the analyst, is that SPCX stock is currently trading 50% below its all-time high and 15% below its initial public offering (IPO) price.

Wall Street will also be watching SpaceX on Thursday, when the first of the company's lock-up period expires. This is when insiders and early investors will be allowed to sell their shares, which could create volatility in the stock.

"SpaceX used an unusually complex scheme with nine main unlock points instead of one traditional 180-day expiry," explains Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned, Ph.D. "The design staggers insider selling over roughly the first six months post-IPO, with longer lockups for some institutions and for Elon Musk personally into mid-2027."

And while Harned admits that this week's lock-up expiry creates an overhang for the tech stock, he believes "the company's messaging in its Q2 report will be important," particularly updates on "the path to full reusable Starship launches."

Boeing gets double upgraded

Boeing (BA) released its second-quarter results last week and shares rose nearly 5% in reaction to a top-line beat and positive free cash flow.

The Dow Jones stock is up again to start this week, gaining 8.0% on Monday, after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) cleared the aircraft manufacturer's 737 Max 7 for passenger flights after years of delays.

The blue chip stock got another boost after BNP Paribas analyst Matthew Akers double-upgraded BA to Buy from Sell. He also raised his price target to $300 from $230, representing implied upside of 28% to current levels.

"The post-COVID era of uncertainty for (Boeing) is over," says Akers. "In the next year, MAX and 777X certifications will drive inventory liquidation and operational stability."

The analyst believes this will lift free cash flow to $7 billion by 2027, roughly $1 billion more than Wall Street expects.

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Stocks were volatile Friday as market participants weighed mixed reactions to a pair of Big Tech earnings reports and surging Treasury yields. The main equity indexes finished the session higher, though, and snapped their weekly losing streaks.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 52,485, the broader S&P 500 was 0.7% higher at 7,489, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.0% to 25,373.

But stocks' gains were contained as borrowing costs continued to climb. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 4.1 basis points to 4.27%, while yields on the 10-year Treasury (+4.9 basis points to 4.712%) and 30-year bond (+4.6 basis points to 5.253%) hit their highest levels since 2007.

Today's rise in Treasury yields came after Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, who voted for a quarter-point rate hike at the July Fed meeting, said in a statement that "now is the time" for the central bank to act to bring inflation down. "The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down."

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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who also dissented in this week's Fed decision to hold interest rates steady in favor of a quarter-percentage-point hike, issued his own statement, saying that he'd prefer to raise rates now than to allow high inflation to become entrenched.

"The fixed-income complex is moving further away from the central bank's current midpoint of 3.63% as bond vigilantes protest [Fed] Chair Kevin Warsh's overly patient posture and dial up inflation expectations, amid a monetary policy institution that isn't following through on its hawkish rhetoric at this juncture," explains José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Amazon, Apple chart different paths after earnings

In single-stock news, Wall Street was once again tuned into earnings from a pair of Magnificent 7 stocks. Amazon (AMZN) emerged as a clear winner on Friday, surging 15.3% after the e-commerce and cloud giant reported a second-quarter beat on strong revenue growth in its cloud segment.

Amazon also gave soft third-quarter revenue guidance due to Prime Day occurring in June this year, and lifted its full-year capital expenditures budget to $220 billion from $200 billion on higher costs for memory chips.

Bill Birmingham, managing director at REX Financial, REX Shares' parent company, says Amazon's quarter was "exceptional," with evidence that the company's custom silicon and artificial intelligence (AI) commercialization are gaining traction noteworthy.

And while it's worth keeping an eye on the lighter revenue guidance and higher spending levels, Birmingham said the print "provides real evidence that AI capex is being monetized."

Apple (AAPL), on the other hand, slumped 7.4%, as weak current-quarter revenue guidance overshadowed higher-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue.

"We paid more per memory in the March quarter than the December quarter," said Tim Cook on the earnings call, his last as CEO of Apple. "And then as I alluded to last quarter, we expected to pay significantly more in the June quarter than the March quarter, and that is what happened. It was partially offset by the benefit of carry-in inventory."

Cook added that the company expects to pay even more for memory costs in its September quarter.

Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher reiterated his Buy rating and $375 price target on Apple after earnings, representing implied upside of more than 20% to current levels.

"As we see it, Apple's perpetually refreshed roster of highly desirable products provides a unique advantage over industry rivals," says Kelleher. And dips should be bought on this high-quality stock to "establish or dollar-average into positions in AAPL," he adds.

Roblox has its worst day ever after earnings

While Apple was the worst Dow Jones stock today, Roblox (RBLX) was one of the worst stocks period. Shares plunged 26.9% — their biggest one-day decline ever — after the video-game company reported a second-quarter bookings miss and forecast lower-than-expected third-quarter bookings.

Roblox also said it expects Q3 revenue to come in well below what Wall Street is expecting and did not offer a full-year forecast.

This doesn't seem to worry Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang, who maintained an Outperform (Buy) rating on the communication services stock. "Retention remains stable and content is diversifying," he says, though cautioning that it's still uncertain as to when monetization will catch up to retention.

Yang isn't the only one holding out hope for RBLX. Of the 34 analysts covering Roblox who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 19 say it's a Buy, 13 have it at Hold and two rate it a Sell. This works out to a consensus Buy recommendation.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate Thursday and stayed higher through the close as well-received earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) overshadowed a disappointing reaction to Meta Platforms' (META) quarterly results. Market participants also kept an eye on a busy economic calendar and surging long-term Treasury yields, though these did little to shift today's price action.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.2% at 52,208, the broader S&P 500 was 1.7% higher at 7,437, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had surged 2.8% to 25,122.

And in the bond market, long-term yields continued to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing up 5.5 basis points at 4.677% and the 30-year yield jumping 7.8 basis points to 5.221%, both near their highest levels since 2007.

This comes as rising bond yields sank stocks on Wednesday in reaction to the Federal Reserve's split decision to keep interest rates steady, even as inflation sits well above the central bank's 2% target.

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"The reluctance to lift generated short-term credibility damage, driving a dramatic steepening across the Treasury curve as bond vigilantes stood up and said, 'wait a minute,' resulting in purchases at the shorter tenors alongside selling at the long end," explains José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

June PCE eases on falling energy prices, GDP slows

Markets received another inflation update today with the release of June's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), headline inflation was down 0.1% month over month and up 3.7% year over year.

This was much better than May's monthly and annual increases of 0.4% and 4.1%, respectively, and came as energy prices tumbled roughly 20% in June. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also eased in June, rising 0.1% month over month and 3.3% year over year.

In a separate release, the BEA said that second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.5% higher in Q2 — slower than Q1's 2.1% increase. The headline number isn't as worrying as it seems, though, as surging imports were the main drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The data also showed that consumer spending and investments were strong.

"Despite moderating inflation, strong domestic activity across consumption and business investment will keep the Fed diligent about the risks overheating could have on the inflation trajectory," says Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "We continue to expect the Fed to be patient as it awaits more inflation data."

Microsoft gains $500 billion in value after earnings

In addition to a busy day of economic reports, Wall Street had a lengthy earnings calendar to sift through. Microsoft's earnings were among the most noteworthy.

The tech giant jumped 15.5%, its biggest one-day gain since 2008. It also added $450 billion in market value — the most ever for a company in one day, beating out Nvidia (NVDA, +2.7%), which gained $440 billion in market cap on April 9, 2025, according to The Wall Street Journal.

For its fiscal fourth quarter, Microsoft reported higher-than-expected earnings and revenue, with its results boosted by a 43% year-over-year revenue growth in its Azure cloud segment.

And while MSFT said it expects fiscal 2027 capital expenditures to be up year over year, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood also said she believes the company will remain free cash flow positive.

"Microsoft reported a very strong quarter and it struck the tone markets are looking to hear as the key drivers of growth came from the cloud and AI divisions," says Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. And the blue chip stock's reaction indicates "that investors are finally excited about Microsoft again."

Meta stock posts its longest losing streak on record

Fellow Magnificent 7 stock Meta Platforms, on the other hand, slumped 8.0% after its results. META has now fallen for 11 days straight, its longest losing streak on record. Shares are down 20.9% over that time.

While the Facebook parent reported a second-quarter revenue beat, it fell short on the bottom line and gave lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue guidance.

And, as Meta ramps up spending on artificial intelligence initiatives, the company also said its free cash flow plunged 91% year over year to $784 million and it raised the low end of its full-year capital expenditures outlook.

"The report's defining narrative is the aggressive cost absorption required to stay at the leading edge of generative AI," says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. "It's just not the greatest story to increase the bottom end of your capex, basically increasing the midpoint, and not showing much positive guidance on revenue expectations."

Big Tech earnings will continue after Thursday's close, with Amazon (AMZN, +3.9%) and Apple (AAPL, -1.4%) set to report.

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Oil prices surged and the stock market's "fear gauge" spiked as the war between the U.S. and Iran escalated again on Wednesday. Violence in the Middle East continues to impede traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while even exponential growth for AI-related companies is letting down investors, traders and speculators.

"We'll be hitting them hard," President Donald Trump told Fox News after Iran struck a U.S. base in Jordan. "They're going to get a beating." The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 7.2% at $84.94 per barrel.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose from 18.21 on Tuesday to as high as 20.34 on Wednesday, breaching its "normal" range of 12 to 20 and settling at 20.05.

The July Fed meeting ended where investors, traders and speculators thought it would: with interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight time but central bankers worried about inflation and the energy shock.

The target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50% to 3.75%. But three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented from the decision because they favored raising it by 25 basis points.

"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace," reads a repeated sentence in a subtly updated but still brief FOMC policy statement, "despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East."

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As Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said during his press conference, "We'll be watching inflation data over the period ahead," but he also said the central bank wouldn't rely exclusively on any one piece of it.

Acknowledging a steep rise in market-based rates over the last 42 days, the Fed chair noted shocks the economy seems to be absorbing relatively well so far.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 1.7% to 24,442, the broad-based S&P 500 was down 1.5% to 7,316, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 2.2% to 51,594.

SKHY leads chip stocks lower again

The earnings calendar is the market's main focus following an overnight preview from South Korea-based SK Hynix (SKHY, -2.6%). The Nvidia (NVDA, -3.6%) supplier reported 257% top-line growth, as well as a 557% rise for operating profit and a 1,242% earnings increase.

But SK Hynix stock was down 9.6% on its local exchange because it failed to meet high expectations, and trading was halted on South Korea's KOSPI Index to stem a broader sell-off. The KOSPI closed lower by 6%.

Losses were similar for Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -5.5%), Broadcom (AVGO, -2.8%) and ASML (ASML, -2.0%), with Micron Technology (MU, -9.9%) suffering like fellow memory stock SKHY.

Up now are Meta Platforms (META, -1.3%) and Microsoft (MSFT, -0.7%), with Apple (AAPL, -0.6%) and Amazon (AMZN, -1.8%) to follow on Thursday.

CAT dogged by data center debate

Caterpillar (CAT, -6.9%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Wednesday after Baird analyst Mircea Dobre cut his rating on the heavy equipment maker from Buy to Hold and reduced his 12-month target price from $1,200 to $900.

Dobre cited rising regulatory opposition to AI data centers due to environmental strains and power grid pressures.

"The ground is shifting in many ways; the recent New York State moratorium on data center construction is the highest-profile example of a bigger (and growing) trend towards regulatory action at state and local level targeting data centers," the analyst observes. "This raises costs, adds new development approval hurdles, limits site availability, and likely slows future investment."

Caterpillar is scheduled to report second-quarter results before the opening bell next Tuesday, August 4. Wall Street expects to see earnings of $6.20 per share (+31.4% year over year) on revenue of $19.17 billion (+15.7% YoY).

CAT hit new all-time intraday and closing highs on June 30. The industrial stock is down 20.9% since then, shedding more than $100 billion in market cap.

What the 2-year Treasury yield says about a rate hike

According to LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, markets have adjusted to a "higher-for-longer" environment, with the 2-year Treasury yield up about 90 basis points from its February 27 low of 3.375% and outside the target range for the federal funds rate since April.

Turnquist describes eight periods since the 1980s during which the 2-year yield was above that range while policy was on hold, defined as at least three months without a change in the fed funds rate, along with a "crossover period" of at least 20 consecutive trading days.

"As of July 28, 2-year yields have remained above the fed funds target rate for 68 trading days," Turnquist notes, "with the spread reaching a maximum of 0.60% so far."

The median maximum spread for the comparison period was 0.97%. And Turnquist concedes the limited nature of the historical data set means it can't be used to either confirm or rule out a rate hike.

Still, he concludes, "The comparison suggests the current crossover is less mature than the three completed historical signals that ultimately preceded tighter monetary policy."

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Stocks were choppy early on Tuesday, but falling oil prices and a round of well-received corporate earnings helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 climb higher into the close. The Nasdaq Composite, however, couldn't sidestep an extended slump in chip stocks.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.2% lower at 24,876, pressured by weakness in semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which counts Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -8.2%) and Micron Technology (MU, -8.9%) among its biggest holdings, fell 4.8% and is now down 23% for the month to date.

The continued sell-off is being "driven by concerns about capital return prospects, valuations, circular financing dynamics and Chinese competition," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

But the broader S&P 500 (+0.2% at 7,428) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0% to 52,747) advanced thanks in part to falling oil prices. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4% to settle at $79.26 per barrel.

Strong earnings for several blue chip stocks also helped buoy the benchmarks. Coca-Cola (KO), for one, jumped 5.0% after the soft drink maker beat second-quarter estimates and raised its full-year guidance.

The company credited the FIFA World Cup as one catalyst behind its strong results, seeing Trademark Coca-Cola volume growth of 5% in Q2, its best volume growth since the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Boeing (BA) was another post-earnings winner, rising 4.8% as the aerospace giant's Q2 revenue came in higher than expected, which offset a wider-than-anticipated per-share loss.

Sherwin-Williams has its best day since 2022 after earnings

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) emerged as the best Dow Jones stock today, surging 8.3% — its best day since April 26, 2022 — after the paint maker reported stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter results.

"Sales improvement was driven by continued growth investments, new account wins and increased share of wallet," said Sherwin-Williams CEO Heidi Petz. "We also implemented pricing actions to offset raw material inflation that pressured our gross margin in the quarter."

In mid-June, Argus Research analyst Alexandra Yates said SHW is "uniquely positioned to benefit from significantly higher demand trends and margin expansion in the long term, this due to its dominant market position." Yates added that she views the materials stock as a "core long-term holding."

Corning suffers its biggest one-day drop in six years

Not all earnings reports were well received. Corning (GLW) plunged 12.1%, its biggest one-day drop since March 16, 2020, after the Gorilla Glass maker's disappointing third-quarter revenue forecast overshadowed a second-quarter beat.

Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini says the softer-than-expected revenue guidance is due primarily to "weakness outside Optical Communications, particularly within the Solar segment."

And he maintained a Positive (Buy) rating on the tech stock, saying it "remains well positioned to benefit from growing AI cluster sizes and increasing and width requirements, while also enabling alternative manufacturing approaches for fiber array units (FAUs), which we believe are among the most critical components in the commercialization of optical CPO (transceiver) architectures."

These transceiver architectures have a variety of use cases, including in data centers, AI chip connections and high-performance computing.

Buckle up

There are plenty more events this week that could spark market volatility. On the economic front, Wall Street is waiting for tomorrow afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.

While it's unlikely the central bank will raise the federal funds rate this time around, rate hike odds have been rising. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 32% chance the Fed will increase rates tomorrow, up from 26% one week ago.

We're reporting live on the July Fed meeting. Follow along with Kiplinger for all the news and updates.

And on the earnings calendar, Wednesday's after-the-close announcements from Meta Platforms (META, -0.08%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +1.1%) will likely draw a crowd. Apple (AAPL, +0.9%) and Amazon (AMZN, -0.2%) will report on Thursday.

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Crude oil prices sank and interest rates were lower Monday on renewed hope for peace in the Middle East. But semiconductor stocks sold off as markets continue to wonder when escalating hyperscaler capex budgets will generate returns on investment.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 8.1% to $82.04 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by nine basis points to 4.322%.

Both are still much higher than they were before the war between the U.S. and Iran started on February 28. But the immediate reaction to the suspension of attacks in the U.S.-Iran war "implies further equity upside when the conflict is fully over," according to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

"The Fed decision on making a change in the fed funds rate will be the big event of the week," Navellier observes about the economic calendar.

The July Fed meeting starts tomorrow and ends Wednesday. Price action in the fed funds futures market shows a 64% probability the central bank keeps its primary benchmark where it is this week. But, according to CME FedWatch, odds of a rate hike in September are now up to 55.5%.

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It's also a big week for the earnings calendar, as Navellier notes: "By the end of the week, more than a third of S&P companies will have reported."

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% to 52,209, and the broad-based S&P 500 had inched up 0.02% to 7,413 But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% to 24,932.

AAPL > NVDA

Nvidia (NVDA, -5.0%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock during a rough session for chipmakers. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -2.1%) reflected broadening concern about the sustainability of the AI revolution as its leader makes new and bigger deals.

Bloomberg reported that Nvidia is discussing one deal worth as much as $250 billion to help its customer OpenAI lease computing power from a U.S. data center and another to finance $350 billion of OpenAI's chip purchases for the project.

On Friday, Nvidia announced a $500 billion deal with South Korea-based chipmaker SK Hynix (SKHY, -7.5%) that illustrates what skeptics describe as "circular" AI deals supporting the infrastructure build-out.

Apple (AAPL, +1.2%), meanwhile, overtook NVDA to become the biggest company in the world in terms of market cap. The iPhone maker will carry a year-to-date return of about 23% into its fiscal third-quarter earnings announcement after the closing bell on Thursday.

Meanwhile, amid rising anxiety about their capex plans, Meta Platforms (META, -0.2%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +1.9%) will report after the closing bell on Wednesday. Amazon (AMZN, -0.3%) joins AAPL in the spotlight on Thursday.

As Navellier writes, these four Magnificent 7 stocks account for 17% of the weight of the S&P 500 "and will be very telling of the continued confidence in the AI theme." Nvidia will report fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, August 26.

QBTS + T

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS, +8.9%) is one of the best ways to invest in quantum computing right now because it's making deals with classic blue-chip companies such as AT&T (T, +1.2%).

On Monday, D-Wave Quantum announced the expansion of a partnership teased in January when AT&T executives appeared at the Qubits 2026 conference. The telecommunications giant will now use D-Wave's tech across its network operations, most notably outage detection and traffic management.

"AT&T's initial focus is on layering D-Wave's annealing quantum computing technology into the tools that are already powering AT&T's agentic AI solutions," D-Wave said in its press release.

Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for QBTS from $29 to $35 following management's first "analyst day" event in June, citing its leadership in annealing QC.

Rakesh says D-Wave's updated financial model shows long-term gross margins for quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) at 65% to 75%, professional services at 40% to 50% and computing systems at 75% to 90%.

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Stocks rallied off their mid-morning lows on Friday on reports that Pakistan is attempting to restart peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. But worries about the impact of rising oil prices and new tariffs on inflation, as well as another round of poorly received tech earnings, had main indexes reversing course heading into the weekend.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 51,947 and the broader S&P 500 was 0.05% higher at 7,411. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, on the other hand, was 0.6% lower at 24,975. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched back-to-back weekly losses, while the Dow extended its weekly losing streak to three.

Retreating oil prices somewhat eased inflation worries ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. But while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 3% to $89.31 per barrel, they're still up more than 28% for the month.

And the Trump administration's newly announced tariffs, which impose 10% to 25% tariffs on a variety of goods from major trading partners, kept price concerns at the forefront.

"The administration has found a replacement for the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February," says Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group.

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While the effective tariff rate "will still be below the worst-case scenario feared after Liberation Day," he explains, the tariffs "add another layer of inflationary pressure, raising companies' costs for raw materials and intermediate goods that have yet to be fully passed on to consumers."

The Fed will conclude its July policy meeting next Wednesday afternoon. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 64% chance the central bank will hold interest rates steady — down from 87% one week ago.

Intel swings lower after earnings, DLR has its best day since 2020

Market participants also sifted through a busy earnings calendar. Intel (INTC) was one of the most noteworthy reports. The chipmaker reported its highest year-over-year revenue growth in 15 years — up 25% from Q2 2025 to $16.1 billion — sending its shares higher at Friday's open.

But Intel closed down 7.9% on the day. "Even earnings reports that appear to be positive are often not enough in the current environment," write Argus Research analysts. And for INTC, in particular, Argus is concerned that key end markets, such as servers and PCs, "are at risk from soaring component costs, particularly for memory."

Digital Realty (DLR), meanwhile, surged 11% after its beat-and-raise quarter, its best day since March 13, 2020.

Results from the real estate investment trust (REIT), which owns, operates and invests in data centers, underscored "accelerating AI-driven demand, market share gains, and the strength of its global platform," says Stifel analyst Erik Rasmussen.

And given the company's strong execution, sufficient liquidity and increasing AI-related deployments, Rasmussen believes "Digital Realty remains well positioned to sustain double-digit earnings growth."

He has a Buy rating on the REIT and a $235 price target, representing implied upside of 17% to current levels.

Bank of America hikes its dividend by 14%

In non-earnings news, Bank of America (BAC) jumped 1.3% after the financial giant announced a 14% dividend hike.

"The increase in our dividend reflects the strength of our earnings, the power of our franchise and our confidence in Bank of America’s ability to drive long-term growth and create value for shareholders," said CEO Brian Moynihan in the press release.

This is welcome news for income investors who have watched Bank of America raise its payout for 13 years straight. And the most well-known person in that group is Warren Buffett, who first added BAC to the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio in 2017.

While Berkshire has been slowly reducing its exposure to the bank stock in recent quarters, it was still the third-largest equity holding at the end of Q1. And BAC has been an income-generating machine for Berkshire over the years, paying the holding company $625 million in cash dividends in 2025 alone.

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Stocks sold off Thursday as rising bond yields and surging oil prices spooked market participants. Poorly received earnings reports from a pair of Magnificent 7 stocks didn't help matters, with the main indexes now on track for another week of losses.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 1.0% at 51,711, the broader S&P 500 was 1.2% lower at 7,408, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2.2% at 25,137.

Rising bond yields were one headwind for stocks today. The yield on the 2-year Treasury jumped 4.9 basis points to 4.351% — its highest level since February 2025. And the 10-year Treasury yield spiked 4.2 basis points to an 18-month high of 4.699%.

The surge in Treasury yields comes as oil prices climb and accelerate inflation worries. It's also lifting expectations for a rate hike later this year. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 6.2% to $92.19 per barrel, and are now up 33% month to date.

"Higher oil prices are the biggest near-term macro risk," says Sameer Samana, head of Global Equities and Real Assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII). "Escalating Middle East tensions have pushed crude prices higher, raising concerns that inflation could reaccelerate and delay interest-rate relief … maybe even cause the Fed to hike."

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And higher Treasury yields, Samana adds, reflect "expectations that rates may stay higher for longer, creating potential headwinds for rate-sensitive sectors and long-duration assets."

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 57% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike the federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point in September — and a 26% probability it will raise rates by a half-percentage point.

The odds for a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting are currently at 36%, up from 12% one week ago.

Alphabet stock has its worst day since May 2025 on capex worries

In single-stock news, Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped 7.1% today, the Dow Jones stock's worst day since May 2025, after the Google parent reported earnings.

While Alphabet beat on the top and bottom lines on strong revenue growth in its Cloud, Search and YouTube segments, the company's increased spending is worrying Wall Street. In its earnings call, management said it is raising its full-year capex budget to a range of $195 billion to $205 billion from $180 billion to $190 billion.

The higher capex, Alphabet admits, will keep pressure on free cash flow — which came in negative for the first time in Q2 — but "enables us to capitalize on the AI opportunity and continue to drive attractive returns."

Tesla loses $203 billion in market value today

Fellow Magnificent 7 stock Tesla (TSLA) fell 14.5% — shedding $203 billion in market value — after the mega cap reported lower-than-expected second-quarter earnings. TSLA also saw free cash flow turn negative in Q2, reporting a deficit of $1.1 billion, while capex more than doubled from the year prior, to $5.8 billion.

In the company's earnings call, Tesla's chief financial officer, Vaibhav Taneja, said capex will rise even further from here.

"CapEx will grow for the next two to three years as we expand our robotaxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity and AI compute infrastructure in addition to all the other expansions we'll do for other manufacturing for automotive," Taneja explained.

"TSLA is in the midst of a high investment period so capex efficiency is key with the payoff from these investments further down the road, in our view," says UBS Global Research analyst Joseph Spak.

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Two of the three main equity indexes opened lower on Wednesday as escalation of the war in the Middle East cast a "risk-off" pall on markets. Investors, traders and speculators eased back into "risk-on" names as the trading session evolved, with focus on the first two Magnificent 7 revelations of the earnings season. Midday momentum ebbed, though, and all three indexes closed lower.

"From this point forward," President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social before the opening bell, "any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up another 2.8% to $86.66 per barrel. WTI has risen 29.3% since hitting an intraday "ceasefire" low of $67.04 on July 2. Crude oil closed at $67.02 on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East began.

The 2-year Treasury yield hit another new 52-week high on the way to closing at 4.304% vs 4.261% on Tuesday, and the 10-year yield was up to 4.659% from 4.628%. As Bloomberg calculates, the 30-year yield, which ticked up to 5.149% from 5.131%, has now been above 5% for more days in 2026 than in any other year since 2007.

Technology opened lower a day after a big bounce led by semiconductor stocks including Micron Technology (MU, -1.2%) and SK Hynix (SKHY, -3.9%) before rallying through midday. At the same time, Nvidia (NVDA, +2.3%) posted the biggest gain among Dow Jones stocks.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.6% at 25,690, the broad-based S&P 500 was off 0.1% at 7,498, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had ceded six points, or 0.01%, to 52,218.

"This volatility is due primarily due to rising interest rates driven by the escalating conflict in Iran and rising energy prices," writes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.

What you need to know about Alphabet earnings

Alphabet (GOOGL, -1.5%), which replaced Verizon Communications (VZ, +1.1%) in the Dow on June 29, posted earnings for the first time as a member of the 30-stock index after today's closing bell.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA, -1.3%) and the Google parent are the first two of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report this season.

The big number to track here is second-quarter capital expenditures. Alphabet said it would spend $180 billion to $190 billion this year to build out its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

According to FactSet, Wall Street forecast capex of $45.1 billion for the three months through June 30, an estimated increase of 101.3% from the $22.4 billion Alphabet laid out a year ago, and a full-year run rate of $180.4 billion.

How GOOGL is trading right now is probably a function of where its second-quarter capex came in relative to its guidance and Wall Street's estimate, as well as whether management has revised its outlook.

Constellation has the power

Energy stocks, including Chevron (CVX, +1.0%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, +1.8%), were boosted again by crude oil's rise. CVX was up 12.9% and XOM 10.7% from July 2 through July 21 vs a gain of 0.4% for the S&P 500.

The vertically integrated supermajors, with upstream, midstream and downstream exposure, will update the market on how the energy shock is affecting their operations before the opening bell next Friday, July 31.

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Utility stocks, well positioned to serve power-hungry hyperscalers but also relatively stable vs AI stocks, were tops among the 11 market sectors recognized by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Constellation Energy (CEG, +4.8%), as Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro noted when he picked up coverage of the sector leader in March, is also getting a lift from the biggest carbon-free nuclear generation capacity in the U.S.

Indeed, Constellation's 21 reactors across 12 facilities in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey and Texas can power a lot of data centers.

Arcaro recently reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating on CEG and raised his 12-month target price from $364 to $366. Constellation Energy is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings report on Thursday, August 6.

Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has approved a 30-year agreement to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear power program "estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars."

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Technology stocks took off on Tuesday, and crude oil prices did the same. Investors, traders and speculators are looking forward to imminent earnings announcements from two of the Magnificent 7, even as the U.S. and Iran are escalating the war in the Middle East.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.3% at 25,837, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.9% at 7,509, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.7% at 52,224.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 2.7% to $84.68 per barrel, and the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.266% from 4.215% on Monday.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +5.5%) extended its gain on Monday into a full-blown rally on Tuesday, though the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS, +0.01%) generated a more modest return.

"The market continues to look through the Middle East situation as transitory and is staying focused on strong earnings," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes. "The trend remains positive."

It's all about earnings

Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, -1.4%) and electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA, +2.5%) are scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday.

Much is riding on all of the Magnificent 7 stocks, Nvidia (NVDA, +2.0%) in particular. As FactSet analyst John Butters notes, the estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the group is 31.1%.

But there's a lot riding on earnings generally: The other 493 S&P 500 stocks are expected to post bottom-line growth of 22.8%, which would be their highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.

"In fact," Butters writes, "four of the five top contributors to earnings growth for the S&P 500 for Q2 2026 are not 'Magnificent 7' companies: Micron Technology (MU, +12.2%), Chevron (CVX, +0.7%), Exxon Mobil (XOM, +2.3%), and Broadcom (AVGO, +2.2%)."

Indeed, the leader of the AI revolution is the only Mag 7 stock that's also a top-five contributor to current earnings growth estimates. Nvidia posted fiscal 2027 first-quarter results in May and will report again on Wednesday, August 26.

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The energy stocks stand out, too, amid the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron and Exxon Mobil are scheduled to report second-quarter results before the opening bell next Friday, July 31.

Micron and Broadcom revealed blowout results for their respective fiscal quarters in June. The semiconductor stocks are scheduled to report again in September.

3M looks good

3M (MMM) was No. 1 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks on Tuesday, rising as much as 10.7% to within $1.26 of its February 12 52-week high, after management reported expectations-beating results and raised its full-year guidance.

3M now sees earnings of $8.80 to $8.95 per share for 2026, up from a range of $8.50 to $8.70, with CEO Bill Brown citing "strong first-half performance and continued momentum."

The industrial stock generated a year-to-date total return of 0.3% through Monday vs 9.4% for the S&P 500, sagging in January after management shared lackluster initial guidance and trending lower through May.

Genuine Parts cuts some guidance

Genuine Parts (GPC, -2.7%) is one of the best stocks to buy for dependable dividend growth because of a 70-year history of raising its quarterly payout. Management of the automotive and industrial parts maker sustained that record in February with a 3.2% increase.

At the same time, though, the consumer discretionary stock said it was splitting into two publicly traded companies, "Global Automotive," which operates as the familiar NAPA retail front, and "Global Industrial," which works under the Motion banner.

The separation is costing more than management forecast, so Genuine Parts updated elements of its full-year forecast, most notably GAAP EPS. That estimate was revised from $6.10 to $6.60 to $5.90 to $6.40.

Management reaffirmed its adjusted EPS guidance range, $7.50 to $8, as well as its 3% to 5% revenue growth rate forecast. Still, that updated element shook the market.

It appears management understood the gravity of its decision and conducted a thorough review: "The company considered its recent business trends and financial results, current growth plans, strategic initiatives, global economic outlook, geopolitical conflicts and the potential impact on results in updating its outlook."

Genuine Parts hasn't defined a post-separation dividend policy, though details will likely be forthcoming following the forecast completion of the separation in the first quarter of 2027.

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With many Big Tech names lining up to report quarterly results this week and next, investors, traders and speculators would prefer to focus on AI, earnings and guidance rather than uncertainty about the Middle East, inflation and interest rates. The main equity indexes reflected this balancing act on Monday.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.05% at 25,508, the S&P 500 had slipped 0.2% to 7,443, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.6% at 51,841.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract added 0.9% to $82.49 per barrel, and the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.208% from 4.172% on Friday.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +0.5%) recovered after posting a 10.2% decline last week amid renewed concerns about hyperscaler spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, as well as another threat posed by an emergent Chinese AI model.

"Despite the recent pullback," observes LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist, citing last week's 1.6% decline for the S&P 500, "market breadth continues to improve."

As Turnquist notes, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has increased to nearly 70% from just above 50% in May, "signaling that participation beneath the surface remains considerably healthier than it was just a few months ago."

At the same time, price action remains volatile amid a cycle of escalating and de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

Apple falls from high branches

Apple (AAPL, -2.1%) was one of three Magnificent 7 stocks in the red on Monday, the share price for the iPhone maker tracking back after hitting new highs on Friday, likely due to some profit-taking.

AAPL reached a fresh intraday peak of $334.99 and a closing record of $333.74 on July 17, briefly overtaking Nvidia (NVDA, +0.2%) as the biggest company in the world based on a market cap.

Tesla (TSLA, -3.0%), meanwhile, sold off ahead of its turn on the earnings calendar after the closing bell on Wednesday. Tesla pre-reported a 25% increase in EV deliveries during the second quarter.

TSLA hasn't seen much upside based on its relationship to SpaceX (SPCX, -3.3%), though the consumer discretionary stock has drifted lower in the afterburn of the biggest IPO in stock market history.

While AAPL was dragging on the index, Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, +1.5%) was among the top-performing Dow Jones stocks on Monday, along with Amazon (AMZN, +1.1%) and Microsoft (MSFT, +2.2%).

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Alphabet is also scheduled to report second-quarter results after Wednesday's closing bell. Amazon and Apple are scheduled to report on July 30, Microsoft on July 29.

For the record, Meta Platforms (META, -0.02%) closed marginally lower on Monday. The Facebook parent is scheduled to report earnings on July 29. Nvidia will report on Wednesday, August 26.

AMC's rise is Homeric

AMC Entertainment (AMC), among the most notorious small-cap stocks in financial market history, was up as much as 27.8% on Monday after management reported the highest revenue in the movie-theater operator's more than 100 years in business.

AMC generated earnings of 14 cents per share vs a Wall Street forecast for a loss of four cents per share. Revenue grew by 14.2% to $1.59 billion, topping a consensus estimate of $1.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was up 69.6% to a company-record $321.4 million.

According to CEO Adam Aron (PDF), it's the first time AMC has surpassed $300 million adjusted EBITDA for a three-month period, and AMC also generated $190.1 million in free cash flow.

The CEO is optimistic: "This weekend's powerful debut of Universal Pictures and Christopher Nolan's THE ODYSSEY, with an encouraging media reported $124 million domestic opening, is the latest reminder of the strength of today's theatrical marketplace."

Aron says the filmed version of Homer's epic poem follows a second quarter during which six different movies posted domestic opening weekend gross box office totals of more than $75 million.

"We believe that movie theatres will enjoy, in the full twelve-months of 2026, their strongest yet post-pandemic year, at both the domestic and the global box office," the CEO concludes.

Indeed, with a year-to-date total return of almost 25% vs less than 10% for the S&P 500, the freebies aren't the only thing you can enjoy about this stock.

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Another down day for tech stocks weighed on the broader market Friday, with today's leg lower sparked by reports that a new artificial intelligence model from Chinese startup Moonshot AI bridges the gap with several U.S. models. Poorly received earnings results from streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) weighed on sentiment, too.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.4% at 25,520, the broader S&P 500 was off 1.0% at 7,457, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.8% lower at 52,146.

News that Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 is powerful enough to rival models from OpenAI and Anthropic revived competition fears — and rehashed memories from early 2025, when China's DeepSeek sent stocks into a tailspin. It also pressured several AI-related names, including Nvidia (NVDA, -2.2%) and Intel (INTC, -2.0%).

Netflix stock slides after earnings

A negative reaction to Netflix's second-quarter results also weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq today, with the communication services stock sliding 7.3% — its worst day since April 17.

While the company's earnings of 80 cents per share beat analysts' estimates, its revenue of $12.56 billion fell short and its third-quarter revenue forecast came in slightly below the consensus.

In addition, Netflix said it will begin reporting engagement data on an annual basis vs a bi-annual one. "The goal of separating the publication of the report from our earnings results is to keep the focus on our primary financial metrics — revenue and operating profit," the company explained.

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Despite the top-line miss and subsequent stock sell-off, Argus Research analyst Joseph Bonner reiterated a Buy rating on Netflix. He also maintained a $120 price target, representing implied upside of 74% to current levels.

"While competition is intense amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Netflix remains the 'anchor tenant' for consumers in long-form video streaming," says Bonner. "We see the company's incremental moves into live-event sports programming as particularly directed at enhancing its advertising market as well as subscriber acquisition," adding that live events have a higher ad value than scripted content.

As for that advertising business, Bonner notes that Netflix expects ad revenue to double this year, to $3 billion, showing that this segment "continues to scale rapidly.

Travelers soars on Q2 beat

On the plus side of the ledger was The Travelers Companies (TRV), which jumped 9.2% — making it the best Dow Jones stock today — after the property and casualty insurer reported better-than-expected second-quarter results.

In addition to higher demand for insurance, Travelers also saw its catastrophe losses narrow in Q2 and its net investment income soar.

"The scale of our earnings and cash flow enable us to invest in differentiating technology, including AI, at a level that sets us apart, further strengthening the competitive advantages that power those results," said Travelers CEO Alan Schnitzer.

Ahead of earnings, Truist Securities analyst Mark Hughes initiated coverage on the blue chip stock with a Buy rating, saying it is trading at an attractive valuation. "More broadly, we believe the P&C group should be a good performer in light of its consistent topline, limited credit exposure, and moderate interest rate sensitivity."

The earnings calendar heats up next week, with Magnificent 7 stocks Alphabet (GOOGL, -2.2%) and Tesla (TSLA, -2.6%) both reporting.

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Stocks were choppy Thursday as market participants took in a fresh round of earnings reports and several major developments in the healthcare space. Wall Street also watched as chip stocks continued to sell off, with one company's quarterly results spooking this once-hot corner of the market.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% at 52,552, while the broader S&P 500 was off 0.5% at 7,533 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slumped 1.5% to 25,881.

The Dow's losses were limited thanks to a big regulatory win for drugmaker Merck & Co. (MRK), with the healthcare stock climbing 3.3% after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved its daily pill to treat cholesterol.

"Merck's approval is significant because LIPFENDRA, or enlicitide, is the first FDA-approved oral PCSK9 inhibitor," explains William Soliman, Ph.D., founder and CEO of the Accreditation Council for Medical Affairs (ACMA). "It offers the LDL-lowering power associated with injectable PCSK9 medicines in a once-daily pill."

And strategically, Soliman says, "the approval demonstrates that Merck is building beyond oncology as it prepares for Keytruda's eventual loss of exclusivity."

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The 30-stock index was also buoyed by a well-received earnings report for UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +1.2%). The country's largest health insurer by revenue and market share disclosed higher-than-expected earnings and revenue for its second quarter and raised its full-year forecast.

"Overall, this is an impressive beat-and-raise in Q2, which typically dictates the trajectory for the year, is highly encouraging," says Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn, who has an Outperform (Buy) rating on the Dow Jones stock.

Taiwan Semi earnings send chip stocks lower

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) posted impressive year-over-year growth in its second-quarter profit and revenue, thanks to strong demand for the tech giant's artificial intelligence (AI) chips.

TSM also gave upbeat third-quarter guidance and lifted its full-year capital expenditures budget to a range of $60 billion to $64 billion, up from its previous forecast for spending of $52 billion to $56 billion.

But the semiconductor stock fell 2.3% today. One reason for today's decline could be quarter-over-quarter revenue declines in several of its non-AI legacy technologies, says Needham analyst Charles Shi, Ph.D. "This is probably a warning sign that the higher memory prices may already be hurting mainstream semiconductor demand," he explains.

Whatever the reason, TSM's sell-off was enough to keep pressure on several chip stocks. Micron Technology (MU), for one, dropped 5.7% and is now down 26% since the start of July. Sandisk (SNDK) fell 12.6% today and is off 38% month to date. Still, the tech stocks remain 200% and 493% higher, respectively, for the year to date.

AtaiBeckley soars 33% on Eli Lilly bid

In non-earnings news, AtaiBeckley (ATAI) was one of the biggest gainers on Thursday, surging 33.4% after Eli Lilly (LLY, +1.2%) said it will buy the psychedelics drugmaker for $2.8 billion in cash, with another $1 billion tied to development and regulatory milestones.

"Lilly is using the financial strength generated by its obesity and diabetes franchises to diversify into neuroscience and other high-need therapeutic areas," says ACMA's Soliman. And while the risks are considerable, he believes there is a substantial opportunity "because treatment-resistant depression affects patients who have already failed multiple conventional therapies."

The potential $3.8 billion purchase price is a drop in the bucket for the blue-chip drugmaker, whose cash and cash equivalents totaled $7.3 billion at the end of 2025.

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Another encouraging inflation reading and a positive session for several mega-cap stocks lifted the broad market Wednesday. A solid round of earnings reports also boosted sentiment, though gains were capped by a down day for chip stocks.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures what businesses pay suppliers for goods, fell 0.3% from May to June. Year over year, wholesale prices were up 5.5%.

"Nearly two-thirds of the June decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which dropped 12.0 percent," the BLS said.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and 5.1% year over year.

The inflation readings came in better than economists expected, while Wall Street also welcomed downward revisions to the PPI for both April and May.

"The PPI report's largest new piece of information is its downward revisions to inflation in the last few months," says Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.

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While Adams believes the cool inflation readings, also seen in the June CPI report, will keep the Federal Reserve on hold when it meets in two weeks, he notes that "it's hard to feel too excited about last month's drop in producer prices, which largely reflected lower energy prices — prices which rebounded in the first half of July as energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed."

Nevertheless, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% to 52,658 today, while the broader S&P 500 (+0.4% at 7,572) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.6% at 26,269) closed higher too.

Mega caps rise, but chip stocks struggle

Big gains in several mega-cap stocks helped buoy the main indexes today, with Amazon.com (AMZN, +3.0%), Apple (AAPL, +4.0%), Microsoft (MSFT, +2.8%) and Alphabet (GOOGL, +3.2%) all closing higher.

But the day's upside was contained by another negative session for several semiconductor stocks. Micron Technology (MU), for one, dropped 8.0% and is now down 22% since the start of July. Sandisk (SNDK) fell 8.1% today and is off 29% month to date.

BlackRock pops on earnings, Conagra falls on dividend cut

Over on the earnings calendar, BlackRock (BLK) jumped 6.6% after the asset management firm reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. Additionally, BLK became the first investment company to have assets under management top $15 trillion.

Conagra Brands (CAG), on the other hand, fell 0.4% after the Duncan Hines parent swung to a net loss in its second quarter. On an adjusted basis, CAG beat analysts' per-share earnings estimate, though revenue fell short.

The company also halved its dividend. "Resetting our dividend to an annualized rate of $0.70 per share proactively realigns our capital allocation, accelerates progress toward our leverage target, supports critical investments, and strengthens our financial flexibility, including the ability to shape the portfolio over time," said CEO John Brase, who stepped into the position in early June.

Today's decline is only more of the same for the struggling consumer staples stock, which is down 30% since mid-February.

PayPal has its best day ever

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) was also in focus Wednesday, with shares jumping 17.2% — their biggest one-day gain since the payments processor was spun off from eBay (EBAY, +0.2%) in 2015.

Boosting the financial stock were reports that financial services platform Stripe and private equity firm Advent International offered to buy PayPal for $53 billion, or $60.50 per PYPL share — a nearly 28% premium to its July 14 close.

PYPL has struggled in recent years and is down more than 80% from its all-time high near $310 in 2021.

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President Donald Trump rolled back his 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz shipping, though an off-and-on ceasefire in the Middle East continues to roil energy markets and interest rates. But consumer inflation was a lot cooler than expected in June, big banks beat Wall Street forecasts and even conflicting headlines suggest interest in the AI trade remains high.

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract traded above $80 per barrel for the first time since June 17 and was higher by 2.0% at $79.68 on Tuesday. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked down to 4.189% after reaching a new 52-week high and closing at 4.263% on Monday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said before the opening bell that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed its biggest month-over-month decline since 2020 last month. The June CPI report attributed the move to the steepest slide for gasoline prices since 2022.

Bloomberg, relying on "people familiar with the matter," said South Korea-based Samsung Electronics plans to seek some of the same fortune SK Hynix (SKHY, -9.3%) found last Friday when it completed one of the biggest IPOs in U.S. history.

But Reuters quoted a company spokesperson: "Samsung Electronics is not reviewing ​the possibility of issuing American Depositary ​Receipts." Samsung was up 3.4% on its local exchange, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index was up 0.7% on Tuesday.

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Meanwhile, facing an array of challenges to his authority, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is testifying to Congress for the first time since taking his oath of office in May.

Warsh appeared before the House Financial Services Committee today and will testify to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow about inflation and interest rates.

As Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates notes, the BLS will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) before the opening bell on Wednesday. "Economists are expecting the overall PPI to decline 0.2% in June," Navellier writes, "so it is widely expected that inflation will also be cooling on the wholesale level."

At the closing bell on Tuesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.9% to 26,107, the broad-based S&P 500 had climbed 0.4% to 7,543, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.02% to 52,508.

GS gets the biggest earnings bounce

Goldman Sachs (GS, +9.1%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock on Tuesday after management of the heaviest component in the price-weighted index reported expectations-beating second-quarter revenue and earnings.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +2.5%) and Bank of America (BAC, +1.9%) also beat Wall Street forecasts and rose.

But Citigroup (C, -5.3%) and Wells Fargo (WFC, -2.5%) exceeded estimates and fell.

C opened higher, but CEO Jane Fraser said during the company's intraday conference call that management is planning additional investments, as well as accelerated job cuts, that could lead to higher costs in the short term.

Wells Fargo, meanwhile, continues to recover after the removal of regulatory restrictions on its asset growth.

Another Black Tuesday for Big Blue

International Business Machines (IBM, -25.2%), which was founded in June 1911 and completed its initial public offering (IPO) in January 1962, had its worst trading day since at least 1968 on Tuesday.

IBM closed with its biggest single-day loss on record, exceeding the 23.7% decline on Black Tuesday, October 19, 1987, after CEO Arvind Krishna said in a letter to shareholders that Big Blue would miss its second-quarter revenue and earnings guidance.

Susquehanna analyst Jamie Friedman reiterated his Neutral (Hold) rating and his $303 12-month target price, citing IBM's quantum computing option. "At the same time," the analyst added, "the other dimensions of the business that comprise the vast majority of revenue are meeting headwinds."

IBM is scheduled to report earnings on July 23.

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President Donald Trump re-imposed a U.S. blockade on Iran and introduced a 20% toll on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding to uncertainty at the key passage to and from the Persian Gulf. At the same time, another steep sell-off for South Korea-based semiconductor stocks undermined "risk on" sentiment stateside.

"All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,'” the president posted on Truth Social, "but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 8.8% to $77.72 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.269% from 4.208% on Friday and reached a new 52-week high.

Meanwhile, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index dropped 9.0% on Monday. The KOSPI recently traded into "bear market" territory by declining 20.5% from its record closing high on June 22 through last Wednesday's close.

"The stock market's attempt to break out of its six-week consolidation faces a couple of familiar challenges—tech volatility and geopolitics," E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley managing director Chris Larkin observes. "The ongoing swings in semiconductors has made it difficult for tech to mount a sustained push to the upside, and while the market has so far taken the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in stride, escalating hostilities and rising oil prices won't help the bullish cause."

Larkin notes that investors, traders and speculators expect incoming consumer and producer inflation data to show some cooling. "But," he adds, "the market may not get as much of a boost from good news if traders think oil is headed higher again."

Big Tuesday

Indeed, this week's economic calendar, Tuesday morning in particular, is all about inflation and interest rates.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. That's less than two hours before new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh makes his first appearance before Congress as mandated by the Federal Reserve Act.

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The act requires the Fed chair to appear twice a year to talk about the central bank's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and at the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

Tuesday is also a big day on the earnings calendar, with Bank of America (BAC, -0.2%), Citigroup (C, -0.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS, -0.8%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, -0.6%) and Wells Fargo (WFC, +0.6%) scheduled to report second-quarter results and offer forward-looking guidance before the opening bell.

SKHY vs AAPL

SK Hynix (SKHY, -9.3%) was down 15.4% during the first trading session on its local exchange after it completed one of the biggest IPOs in U.S. history on Friday. SK Hynix and fellow chipmaker Samsung Electronics, which was down 10.7% on Monday, make up about 51% to 53% of the KOSPI.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -4.8%) posted a more modest loss, though Nvidia (NVDA, -3.5%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock.

Apple (AAPL, +0.6%) traded against Monday's trend for both the Magnificent 7 stocks and tech generally, touching a new all-time high even as the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS, -1.0%) was well in the red.

Citi Research analyst Asiya Merchant reiterated her Buy rating and raised her 12-month target price for AAPL from $315 to $365, citing the September release of the iPhone 18 as "an important catalyst that could further strengthen investor sentiment." The iPhone 18 is expected to include Siri AI.

At the closing bell on Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.6% at 25,873 the broad-based S&P 500 had shed 0.8% at 7,515, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.3% at 52,498.

When FAST is also safe

If there is such a thing as a safe stock, Fastenal (FAST, +1.2%) qualifies according to Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine contributing columnist James Glassman. As Glassman notes, the wholesale nuts and bolts distributor has boosted its dividend for 26 straight years, and it has a beta of 0.88. So it's a "Dividend Aristocrat," and it's less volatile than the broader market.

FAST, which is also scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday, generated a year-to-date total return of 17.1% through July 10 vs 11.4% for the S&P 500. The industrial stock is also up 94.1% and 451.8% over the trailing five- and 10-year periods vs 85.7% and 316.3% for the index.

The Wall Street analyst community is split on FAST: Five Buy, seven Hold and five Sell ratings. But Rothschild & Co. Redburn sees something different here, too.

"An investor who committed $9,000 to purchase 1,000 shares at Fastenal’s IPO in 1987 would today hold shares worth approximately $15.5 million," analyst William Blunt writes in the March 2026 Redburn Review (pdf), "equating to a compounded annual return of 21.6%, or 22.2% after reinvesting dividends."

Blunt says the culture established by founder Bob Kierlin, who was CEO for 35 years, is built on frugality. "This disciplined approach to costs has enabled sustained reinvestment," he adds, "reinforcing a virtuous cycle of profitability and expansion."

On Monday, Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage of FAST with a Buy rating and a $55 12-month target price.

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Markets ended the first full trading week of July on a positive note, with all three main equity indexes posting gains on Friday. Investors, traders and speculators welcomed another hot initial public offering (IPO) as they look forward to the acceleration of earnings reporting season and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first testimony on Capitol Hill since taking over at the world's most important central bank.

Materials stocks took the lead on Friday, as 10 of 11 sectors closed in the green. Tech stocks were higher, too, while Nvidia (NVDA, +4.0%) and Nike (NKE, +3.8%) were the top-performing Dow Jones stocks.

SK Hynix (SKHYV, +17.0%) started trading late in the morning and immediately popped to an intraday of $176.34, 18.3% above its IPO price. After raising $26.5 billion this week, SK Hynix now ranks among the biggest IPOs in U.S. history.

Financial stocks added more than 1%, with Bank of America (BAC, +0.7%), Citigroup (C, +0.7%), Goldman Sachs (GS, -0.1%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +0.3%) and Wells Fargo (WFC, +0.2%) scheduled to report second-quarter earnings before the opening bell next Tuesday.

By the closing bell, the Nasdaq Composite had added 0.3% to 26,281, finishing with a 1.7% weekly gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday and 1.2% for the week to 7,575. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.3% to 52,673 but tracked back 0.5% over the five days.

What will Warsh tell Congress?

As Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates foreshadows, next week is a big one for the earnings calendar: "We are locked and loaded for another earnings announcement season," Navellier writes, noting that valuations for "fundamentally superior stocks" are being compressed.

It's also a big one for the economic calendar: "I think it is safe to say that Fed Chairman Warsh is planning to turn the Fed inside out, streamline it and make it operate more efficiently," Navellier writes.

Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and at the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

As Navellier explains, Warsh is putting together five task forces to "re-examine how the central bank operates." The task forces will focus on AI, productivity and jobs; Fed communications; the Fed’s balance sheet, inflation and economic data.

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The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 1.3% to $71.56 per barrel. WTI ticked up 4.2% this week, though markets' main concerns right now are top- and bottom-line growth and forward guidance.

At the same time, markets want to know from Warsh how the Fed will respond amid continuing uncertainty about energy prices, inflation and interest rates.

Note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report less than two hours before Warsh testifies on Tuesday.

Upside for META stock

Meta Platforms (META, +6.2%) led S&P 500 stocks on Friday, as the Facebook and Instagram parent surged amid reports that it plans to enter the cloud computing market using its excess AI capacity and that it wants to build a new AI chip in partnership with Broadcom (AVGO, -0.3%).

Broadcom, which is not one of the Magnificent 7 stocks but is one of the top 10 companies in the world based on market cap, was up 11% this week, helped by confirmation by Apple (AAPL, -0.3%) that it will spend $30 billion for its own U.S.-made chips.

"Meta has been a significant beneficiary from the advances in AI by selling more ads at higher prices, which has driven significant revenue acceleration,” DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria observes. "It has not gotten credit because it has increased capex even more. If Meta slows down capex and starts monetizing it, we see significant upside to revenue and cash flow."

WD-40 stock was up 11% today

WD-40 (WDFC, +10.7%) made the case for mid-cap stocks on Friday, as management of the multiuse petroleum-based spray maker beat Wall Street expectations for its third quarter and raised guidance for the full year.

"We delivered an exceptional third quarter," CEO Steve Brass said in WD-40's earnings announcement (pdf), "with net sales increasing 24% and operating income increasing 47%, demonstrating the operating leverage inherent in our business model." Brass cited double-digit growth across WD-40's businesses, as well as "continued progress" in its "Must-Win Battles."

"While the cost backdrop remains fluid," a team of William Blair analysts led by Jon Andersen writes in a post-report note, "we believe in our thesis that WD-40 represents a singular and attractive business and investment opportunity."

Andersen & Co. reiterated their Overweight (Buy) rating, noting WD-40's "unique heritage, brand equity and product efficacy, geographic and channel reach, and go-to-market capabilities," as well as "superior organic sales growth" and "reliable free cash flow generation."

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Wednesday's late surge for a mixed close evolved into Thursday's across-the-board rally for the main U.S. equity indexes after a major gauge of global risk appetite recovered from another steep sell-off. Big companies are still making huge commitments to artificial intelligence, and stocks are still trending higher ahead of a summer reporting season that's going to heat up next week.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 2.3% to $71.85 per barrel, even as the U.S. and Iran continue to attack targets around the Strait of Hormuz.

And tech stocks took off again, as the Korea Composite Stock Price Index added 0.6% a day after it slid into bear market territory. The KOSPI was down 20.5% from its record closing high of 9,114 on June 22 through Wednesday's close at 7,246.

The KOSPI recovered from a steeper 20% drawdown over two trading days in March and got back above its previous all-time high by April. Then, on June 23, it was down 10%, a day they've called "Black Tuesday" in South Korea.

Earnings are the underlying force

Financial stocks added more than 1%, with Bank of America (BAC, +1.6%), Citigroup (C, +1.6%), Goldman Sachs (GS, +2.6%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +1.5%) and Wells Fargo (WFC, +1.6%) scheduled to report second-quarter earnings before the opening bell next Tuesday.

Consumer staples and energy stocks suffered amid the resumption of the "risk on" AI trade, the sectors shedding 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, with notable names Procter & Gamble (PG, -1.1%) and Chevron (CVX, -1.1%) among 17 of the 30 Dow Jones stocks in the red.

"Today’s rebound demonstrates that good stocks bounce," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates notes. Navellier is optimistic about the flow of second-quarter earnings next week: "Believe it or not, it's going to be better than the first quarter."

According to a FactSet summary of first-quarter results, 85% of S&P 500 stocks beat earnings-per-share estimates, and companies reported aggregate revenue and earnings growth rates of 11.6% and 28.4%

"We're in the bumpy summer months," Navellier concludes, "but the underlying force underneath this market is earnings and a very strong economic recovery."

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had risen 1.3% to 26,206, the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.8% at 7,543, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 0.3% to 52,487.

SK Hynix U.S. IPO is 7 times oversubscribed

According to Bloomberg, which cited "people familiar with the matter," demand for U.S.-listed shares of South Korea-based memory chipmaker SK Hynix exceeds supply by more than seven times. As Wall Street would say, this initial public offering (IPO) is "oversubscribed."

Management of the semiconductor stock plans to price its American Depositary Receipt (ADR) at $149 per share. The ADR IPO price is 3.1% above SK Hynix's closing price in South Korea on Thursday.

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SK Hynix is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the symbol SKHYV on Friday and will transition to the symbol SKHY on July 13. One SK Hynix ADR will be equivalent to one-tenth of a South Korea-listed common share.

At $26.5 billion, the SK Hynix IPO would be the biggest first-time share sale of a foreign stock in the U.S., surpassing the $25 billion Alibaba Group (BABA, +2.0%) raised in September 2014. That would put it among the biggest IPOs in U.S. history.

Micron ups US spend above $250 billion

Micron Technology (MU, 4.5%) said it will accelerate and increase its investment plan, committing to spend more than $250 billion through 2035 to support the memory chipmaker's goal to produce more than 40% of its DRAM in the U.S., citing "surging demand for memory in the AI area."

Micron also poured the first concrete at what will be the biggest semiconductor manufacturing facility in the U.S.

In a separate announcement, Micron said it would spend $3 billion to develop the semiconductor supply chain around its U.S. footprint.

BofA Global Research analyst Vivek Arya reiterated his Buy rating and a $1,550 12-month target price for MU stock, citing a 40% to 50% increase in Big Tech capex to $1.5 trillion in 2027. The analyst said memory will consume 35% to 40% of that budget.

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Investors, traders and speculators faced fresh headwinds from Asia on Wednesday. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is "probably" going to launch additional attacks on Iran to retaliate for Islamic Revolutionary Guard strikes on three commercial tankers as they transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

"I'll give them a little warning," Trump said from the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. "We're going to hit them hard tonight, but we'll see how it all works out."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 5.2% to $74.09 per barrel after the president also threatened to reimpose a naval blockade at the key chokepoint for the global hydrocarbon market, but only for Iran.

"Look for cooler heads to prevail in coming days, with traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran and the U.S. returning to the negotiating table," Mizuho Securities Director of Energy Futures Bob Yawger forecast.

Yawger expects negotiations to "drag on" over the next two months, "with both sides eventually agreeing on a weak deal that does not remove Iran's enriched uranium and possibly allows the Iranians to 'manage' the Strait of Hormuz."

Nvidia (NVDA, +3.7%), the leader of the AI revolution and the biggest company in the world based on market cap, trended higher through the day after gapping down at the opening bell.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied off its intraday low, and by the closing bell the tech-heavy index was up 0.2% at 25,870. But the broader S&P 500 declined 0.3% to 7,482, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% to 52,348.

Buffett's Berkshire portfolio gets an energy boost

Integrated oil and gas supermajor Chevron (CVX, +1.1%), which offers all of upstream (exploration and production), midstream (storage and transportation) and downstream (refining and retail) energy exposure, led the 30 Dow Jones stocks for much of Wednesday's trading session.

But Occidental Petroleum (OXY, +3.7%), one of the biggest North American E&P outfits, enjoyed a bigger bounce from renewed tension in the Middle East.

New Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -1.8%) CEO Greg Abel sold CVX during the first quarter. But he held OXY in what is still basically Warren Buffett's stock portfolio.

Abel also engineered Berkshire's $9.7 billion acquisition of Occidental's chemical business that closed in January, and Berkshire remains the largest holder of the energy stock, with more than a quarter of OXY's outstanding shares.

Apple and Broadcom revive the tech trade

Chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the Korea Composite Stock Price Index into "bear market" territory, broadly defined as a 20% decline from a recent all-time high.

The KOSPI reached its record closing high of 9,114 on June 22, but a 5.4% slide on Wednesday following Tuesday's 4.9% sell-off left it 20.5% below that peak at 7,246. Samsung was down 6.3%, SK Hynix 5.7%. The latter will start trading in the U.S. on Friday under the symbol SKHY.

Selling pressure on tech stocks generally eased with confirmation from Apple (AAPL, +0.9%) of a new silicon deal with Broadcom (AVGO, +4.8%) that extends their longstanding relationship into 2031.

The iPhone maker added meat to the bone by confirming a commitment of at least $30 billion "to design and produce custom silicon components and cutting-edge wireless connectivity technologies for a wide range of Apple products."

Take a few seconds to read the FOMC minutes

Like the policy statement summarizing the FOMC's most recent decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, the minutes from the June Fed meeting were a lot shorter than they used to be, by about 22% based on a crude word-count comparison.

This "communication breakdown" is actually a big part of the "regime change" promised by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

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Warsh described a "family fight" about interest rates and the trajectory of inflation during his post-meeting press conference, and the minutes reveal a central bank still making decisions based on incoming data.

Brevity is catching on, though: "A number of participants noted that it was an opportune time to consider significant changes to the FOMC’s postmeeting statement," the June FOMC minutes reveal. "A majority of participants remarked that they saw advantages in shortening the statement."

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Crude oil prices spiked and equity futures sagged after Iran opened fire on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and an Asia-based AI stock sold off before the opening bell on Tuesday.

The main equity indexes moved up from their respective intraday lows during a typically light-volume summer session. But investors, traders and speculators remain wary on the cusp of yet another critical earnings season.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 4.8% to $71.82 per barrel amid an uptick in attacks on tankers moving oil and gas from the Middle East to global markets.

Price action for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, -5.1%) once again reflected unease about how far and how fast the AI revolution has progressed and, beyond promise, the long-term prospects for real profits.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.2% at 25,818, the broad-based S&P 500 had shed 0.5% to 7,503, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.3% at 52,924.

Why Samsung sank

Samsung Electronics was down 6.9% in South Korea after management of the semiconductor stock said in its preliminary report that revenue more than doubled and operating profit grew by 56% during the three months ended June 30.

Those are numbers that would make Nvidia (NVDA, +0.7%) proud. Indeed, Samsung stock has posted a year-to-date return of almost 150%, NVDA about 5%. And that's the rub right now.

"As is often the case," Trade Nation analyst David Morrison observes, "it can be better to travel than to arrive. And it seems that investors are concerned that semiconductor and other AI-adjacent stocks may struggle to maintain such high levels of sales and margins going forward."

SK Hynix, another South Korea-based chipmaker, was down 6.1%. SK Hynix, which is up more than 270% so far in 2026, is on track to begin trading as an American Depositary Receipt under the symbol SKHY on the Nasdaq as soon as the opening bell on Friday.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell 4.9% on Tuesday. Samsung and SK Hynix account for almost 55% of the KOSPI, which has generated a year-to-date return of 81.7%.

CAT got the Dow

Caterpillar (CAT, -3.1%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Tuesday, a big deal because at north of $900 it's the second-biggest component in the price-weighted index.

Caterpillar announced the acquisition of Skywatch, which gathers and processes data for the mining industry. But, according to Barron's, the problem here is a downgrade for Germany-based Siemens Energy (SMERY, -5.1%).

Barclays analyst Vladimir Sergievskii cut his rating on the electrical equipment maker from Equal Weight (Hold) to Underweight (Sell), citing valuation concerns and the trajectory of the capex boom to support AI infrastructure.

At the same time, Sergievskii raised his 12-month target price from €110 to €130. Still, electric power specialist GE Vernova (GEV, -6.5%) sold off hard, too.

Great expectations

PepsiCo (PEP, +1.2%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL, -3.3%) are big, well-known companies that will share important information about how people are spending their money when they take their respective before-the-opening-bell turns on the earnings calendar Thursday and Friday. Markets will take particular note of what they say about the impact of inflation as participants evaluate the near-term future for the beverage and passenger airline industries.

Indeed, as FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters notes, Wall Street trimmed its earnings-per-share estimate for consumer staples stocks by 2.5% and for industrials by 2.1% amid an energy shock during the second quarter.

So their bar isn't as high as it is for high-flying tech stocks such as Samsung. But it is elevated right now, for the whole market: Analysts raised their aggregate EPS estimate for the S&P 500 by 3.4% from April 1 through June 30.

"In a typical quarter," Butters explains, "analysts usually reduce earnings estimates." The average EPS revision over the last five years is a decline of 2.7%. So consumer staples and industrial stocks are sort of outperforming here.

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"In fact," Butters adds, "this quarter marked the largest increase in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter since Q2 2021 (+7.7%)."

Energy stocks saw the biggest EPS increase, 61.5%, followed by information technology at 8.7%. But Wall Street cut its EPS estimate for healthcare stocks by 15.8%.

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Refreshed optimism about the AI trade after a long holiday weekend and an intraday rally for a beleaguered American icon lifted all three main equity indexes into the green on Monday. Price action during another low-volume trading session reflected shorter-term catalysts and longer-term trends, as well as more evidence of a resilient U.S. economy.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +2.7%) bounced back from a two-day decline of nearly 10%, as investors, traders and speculators bought the dip on the stocks building the backbone for the artificial intelligence (AI) economy.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, +6.6%) was among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks after Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their Buy rating and raised their 12-month target price for the chipmaker from $450 to $640.

Broadcom (AVGO, +3.7%) was higher, too, on the extension of its agreement to supply Apple (AAPL, +1.3%) with custom chips through 2031.

Nike (NKE, -1.7%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock for much of Monday morning after Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson cut her 12-month target price for the iconic shoemaker from $55 to $47.

Nike bounced off its intraday low, though, and helped lift Papa Dow into the green by the closing bell.

"As always," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates writes, "we are locked and loaded for another earnings announcement season." As Navellier observes, the second quarter was the best-performing quarter for both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 since 2020. "So expectations remain very high since economic growth is clearly accelerating."

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.1% at 26,121, and the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.7% to 7,537. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, rallied for a 0.3% gain to 53,055, crossing the 53,000 level for the first time and reaching another new all-time closing high.

Economic activity is still expanding

The Institute for Supply Management Services Purchasing Managers Index ticked down to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, but it remains well in expansion territory.

And, according to LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach, hiring for the World Cup in the U.S. likely contributed to the increase to the ISM Services Employment Index last month. Also, as the economist notes, input prices fell to their lowest since February, a sign that recent inflation pressures are unlikely to persist.

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"This morning’s ISM services Report on Business suggests the economic growth trajectory looks favorable," Roach explains. "As tariff and geopolitical stress abates, we should see further improvements with inflation dynamics, although not enough for the Fed to capitulate on its hawkishness."

The economist notes, too, that AI-related capex and consumer spending continue to support the broad economy.

SK Hynix gets a U.S. listing

Markets continue to digest the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in stock market history - indeed, SpaceX (SPCX, -1.0%) will join the Nasdaq 100 as of the opening bell on Tuesday.

Now, South Korea-based SK Hynix, will raise approximately $28 billion through an IPO of shares in the U.S.. With a market cap north of $1 trillion in U.S. dollar terms, SK Hynix is the second-biggest maker of memory semiconductors in the world.

SK Hynix told the SEC it will list 17.79 million common shares on the Nasdaq. The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reported that the semiconductor stock will begin trading on Friday under the symbol SKHY.

WING is a World Cup winner so far

Wingstop (WING, -4.2%) felt a lot of selling pressure on Monday, but the chicken wing flinger was up more than 15% from June 11, the day the tournament began, through July 2, validating its place among Wall Street's top World Cup stock picks.

At the same time, WING had generated year-to-date and trailing-12-month losses of more than 25% and 45%, respectively, making the recent move look like a short-term spike within a longer-term downtrend.

We'll see whether expansion of the customer base beyond sports fans extends past the tournament final on July 19. Wingstop management will report second-quarter results before the opening bell on Wednesday, July 29.

Of the 29 analysts covering the consumer discretionary stock who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 24 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, while four have it at Hold and one says Strong Sell. This works out to a high-conviction consensus Buy recommendation.

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Stocks opened higher in Thursday's low-volume session as market participants gauged what a weak June jobs report means for interest rates. And while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were higher at the close, the Nasdaq Composite swung lower as chip stocks fell again.

At the closing bell, the Dow was up 1.1% at 52,900 — a new record high — and the S&P 500 was fractionally higher at 7,483. The Nasdaq, however, slumped 0.8% to 25,832.

Semiconductor stocks created the biggest drag on the tech-heavy Nasdaq on Thursday, as the high-flying industry continued its recent sell-off. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 5.6% today, bringing its two-day decline to nearly 12%, but the exchange-traded fund remains more than 88% higher for the year to date.

Flash storage specialist Sandisk (SNDK), which is the best S&P 500 stock of 2026 so far with its 635% year-to-date gain, shed 14.1%. And memory chip maker Micron Technology (MU) — up 240% since the start of the year — fell 5.5%.

Tesla drops despite strong deliveries

Tesla (TSLA) was another notable decliner on Thursday, dropping 7.5% despite the electric vehicle (EV) maker reporting stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries.

For the three months ending June 30, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles — the bulk of which were its Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV — up 34% over the first quarter and 25% from the year prior. Analysts expected TSLA to report deliveries of 406,000.

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Given the impressive deliveries growth, it's likely that today's price move for the Magnificent 7 stock is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Indeed, shares gained more than 13% from June 25 through July 1.

Walmart bounces back

Walmart (WMT) fell nearly 4% on Wednesday, dragged down by a report from Cleveland Research that suggested the mega-retailer has experienced slowing same-store sales in recent months.

In its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings report, which was released in May, the company reported comparable sales growth of 4.1%, a slightly slower rate than the 4.6% it disclosed in its fiscal 2026 Q4 print.

But investors appear to be shaking off yesterday's news, with WMT stock up 2.8% today, making it one of the best Dow Jones stocks. And Wall Street remains upbeat about the blue chip stock's longer-term prospects.

Of the 43 analysts covering the retailer who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 37 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, while five have it at Hold and one says Strong Sell. This works out to a high-conviction consensus Buy recommendation.

Speaking for the bulls is Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman, who has an Overweight (Buy) rating on Walmart. "WMT's flywheel does not show signs of slowing, with shopper incidence increasing both in-store and online, top-tier and stable membership penetration, and rising share as a most-frequented retailer," writes Gutman in a recent note. "We continue to believe WMT is well-positioned to gain share within the current challenging macro backdrop."

Weak June jobs data quiets the rate-hike talk

In economic news, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. added just 57,000 new jobs in June, well below the 115,000 economists expected.

Additionally, job growth for April was revised down by 31,000, from +179,000 to +148,000, and May's figure was lowered by 43,000, from +172,000 to +129,000. This results in 74,000 fewer positions than previously reported.

But the weak June jobs report "isn't cause for alarm," says Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet. "The unemployment rate [which fell to 4.2% from 4.3%] remains in good territory, as does the slow, steady growth in jobs amid demographic changes and some economic uncertainty."

And Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), says that the moderation of job growth takes "the steam out of market expectations for Fed rate hikes by year-end."

According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 43% chance the federal funds rate will be at 3.75% to 4.00% by the end of 2026, up from its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

As a reminder, Friday, July 3, is a stock market holiday, with the stock and bond markets closed in observance of Independence Day.

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