Another big rebound on the other side of the world suggested stocks would rise in the U.S., too, and that's what happened early on Wednesday. But investors, traders and speculators remain wary about the speed and scale of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout.

South Korea's KOSPI Index bounced back in a big way after a sharp sell-off from new highs, just as it did in March and April, rising as much as 4.6% and finishing with a gain of 3.3%.

More than half of the KOSPI's value is tied to Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL), which were up 9.8% and 1.0%, respectively, on their local exchange.

Fellow semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA, -0.5%) enjoyed some stateside follow-through, as tech- and AI-related names attracted dip-buyers through midday. Selling pressure returned after lunch.

Industrials, utilities and consumer discretionary stocks — most notably big box retailer Home Depot (HD, +5.7%) — paced the rally over here at a sector level.

"The recent volatility in AI-related names — particularly chip stocks — has been widely described in terms of 'technical exhaustion'," observes Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley's wealth management market research and strategy team.

Skelly sees evidence of weakness in the fundamental story, too, "including possible AI-model pricing wars and increased sensitivity about spending among AI hyperscalers."

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 0.4% to 25,476, and the broad-based S&P 500 was down 0.1% at 7,358. But the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average held on for a 0.4% gain to 51,848.

Warsh has a legendary act to follow

That the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down another 4.3% to $70.06 per barrel on Wednesday will relieve consumers and policymakers worried about inflation. That the 2-year Treasury yield backed off from 52-week highs today to 4.148% vs 4.200% on Tuesday will comfort anyone watching interest rates.

That they're calling what happened in South Korea yesterday "Black Tuesday" is a reminder that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has a tough act to follow. But so did Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell.

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Indeed, Alan Greenspan, who passed away on Monday, is the model for the modern Fed chair.

Whether you need to know how to run a central bank (or you're forming a jazz band), the old Fed chair has answers for you.

Here are five lessons (we can all learn) from Alan Greenspan.

Papa Dow trades VZ for GOOGL

Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.2%) will be the latest Magnificent 7 stock to join the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Global announced on Tuesday.

The Google parent will replace Verizon Communications (VZ, -2.1%) in the price-weighted index before the opening bell this Monday, June 29, with the swap reflecting a divergence among communication services stocks at a moment defined by AI.

As S&P Global notes, adding Alphabet will "broaden and strengthen" Papa Dow's exposure to AI, as well as advertising, cloud infrastructure, hardware, autonomous mobility, healthcare technology and media distribution.

"Its larger market capitalization and share price, together with the breadth of its businesses, make it a more representative Communication Services constituent in the DJIA," the data provider says.

S&P Global also said Honeywell (HON, +2.3%) will remain one of the 30 Dow Jones stocks after it completes the spinoff of Honeywell Aerospace on June 29.

Micron is reporting earnings right now

Micron Technology (MU, -0.4%) hit a new all-time high on Monday, but the tech stock put up red numbers during the two trading sessions ahead of its post-closing-bell turn on the earnings calendar today.

Of course, a year-to-date gain of 268.7% through Tuesday means expectations are still sky-high; indeed, Wall Street expects management to report earnings growth of 950% on revenue growth of 276%.

Those are big numbers. And they make sense, according to Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson.

"With numbers moving higher, demand for AI seemingly set to remain robust through CY2027 (if not 2028), limited likelihood of oversupply over the next 18 months, and finally a strong likelihood MU exceeds our estimates," the analyst argues, "we see no reason to shift our positive view on the name."

Bryson reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price on MU stock from $550 to $1,300 in a preview of management's fiscal third-quarter report.

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The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced a new partnership with Google Wallet on Wednesday. Travelers can now use Google Wallet to opt into TSA PreCheck Touchless ID, a program that allows you to breeze through security checkpoints without any physical government ID or paper boarding pass.

Your TSA PreCheck membership fast-tracks you through the wait line (and shortens the screening process), but you still need to stop and show ID at a security checkpoint before you can go to the screening area. Touchless ID uses facial recognition technology, not a security agent and physical ID, so you can go through a faster-moving line and get through the checkpoint more quickly.

With the new Google Wallet partnership, all of that becomes a little bit more seamless than it already is. If you're a TSA PreCheck member who's already used Touchless ID, you might be wondering how this is any different from your current experience. Here's what you need to know.

What Google Wallet changes about TSA PreCheck Touchless ID

TSA PreCheck Touchless ID is available at 65 airports nationwide. But, until now, you had to opt into the service through a participating airline.

That meant enrolling in a frequent flyer program (provided the airline you're flying with is eligible for Touchless ID), manually adding your passport details to that frequent flyer account, and then opting into TSA PreCheck Touchless ID.

That's easy enough if you've done it before with your typical airline, but what about when you're not flying with your regular airline, or if you forget to check ahead of time? Do you need to be enrolled in the frequent flyer program of every participating airline you fly with and then set up Touchless ID with each one individually? Not anymore.

The new Google Wallet integration simplifies the process. If you're flying on any of the 100 airlines participating in the program (and you have TSA PreCheck), you can opt into Touchless ID just once through Google Wallet and use it every time you fly, with any airline, without joining 100 frequent flyer programs.

How to set up TSA PreCheck Touchless ID in Google Wallet

First, you need to enroll in TSA PreCheck if you haven't already done so. Many travel rewards cards offer statement credits that effectively make the program free to you. So, if you're on the fence about whether or not enrolling is worth it and you have one of those travel credit cards, there's no question. It's free to you so any time saved at the airport is a bonus.

Next, you need to add your passport to Google Wallet.

On the day of your flight, here's what your Touchless ID process will look like:

• Check in for your flight online. After you've finished checking in, save your boarding pass to your Google Wallet.
• Opt into Touchless ID. When viewing your boarding pass in your Google Wallet, you should see a "get started" button if you're eligible for this program. Tap it and follow the prompts.
• Look for the TSA badge on your pass. After agreeing to share your digital ID and boarding pass with the TSA, you should see a little TSA PreCheck Touchless ID badge on your boarding pass. This indicates that you've finished the process and you're good to go.

That's all there is to it. You just opt into the program after checking in and you can now skip the hassle of digging around in your bag for your wallet when you reach the TSA checkpoint. Instead, you'll just scan your boarding pass, do the facial recognition process and move on to the security screening.

What else to know about Google Wallet and Touchless ID

Google Wallet is available to Android phone users. If you have an iPhone, there is no Google Wallet app available.

Understandably, some people have security concerns about the use of facial recognition technology. You do have to opt in for Touchless ID, and TSA says: "Images are not used for law enforcement, surveillance, nor shared with other entities. Your photo and personal data are deleted within 24-hours of your scheduled flight departure."

On privacy concerns, Google says your information is shared with the TSA only after you opt in and authenticate. The company adds that digital IDs in the Wallet "are always encrypted and stored directly on your phone."

The Google Wallet Touchless ID option is "rolling out over the coming weeks," according to Google.

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Virginia lawmakers have approved what appears to be the nation’s first tax on data center electricity use.

The budget deal, which ends months of budget negotiations, will impose a new charge on the power used by data centers in the Commonwealth beginning July 1.

But…the compromise stops short of rolling back the long-standing and controversial sales tax exemption on equipment that has helped fuel Virginia's massive data center industry.

The legislation now heads to Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who is expected to sign it before the start of the new fiscal year. Here's more of what you need to know.

Virginia data center tax compromise

The new data center tax emerged from negotiations during this year’s General Assembly session, as Virginia lawmakers struggled to reconcile competing views on how to tax one of the Old Dominion state's fastest-growing industries.

For months, some state senate lawmakers pushed to scale back or eliminate Virginia’s sales tax exemption for data center equipment.

Supporters of repealing the billion-dollar tax exemption argued that the incentive — first enacted in 2008 — has become increasingly costly as data center construction has accelerated across Northern Virginia. State estimates show the exemption now reduces revenue by more than $1.5 billion annually and is expected to rise further as new facilities come online.

Still, some House of Delegates lawmakers and Gov. Spanberger opposed eliminating the incentive outright. A concern was reportedly that eliminating or changing the exemption before its slated end in 2035 could undermine Virginia’s reputation as a destination for stable technology investment.

The disagreement had stalled broader budget negotiations until lawmakers reached a compromise earlier this week: keep the exemption in place, but add a new tax tied directly to electricity consumption.

Under the FY 2027–FY 2028 biennial budget agreement:

• Data centers will pay 1.1 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity consumed, billed monthly.
• If Spanberger signs the budget, the tax will begin on July 1, 2026.
• Revenue is capped at $600 million annually, with excess collections refunded to the data centers at the end of the fiscal year.

Virginia's Data Center Alley: Why this matters

As Kiplinger has reported, Virginia is home to the largest concentration of data centers in the world, with Northern Virginia’s “Data Center Alley” anchoring a global hub of cloud computing and digital infrastructure.

Around 200 facilities are currently operating in Loudoun County alone, with more planned. These facilities handle over one-third of the world’s daily internet traffic.

But the scale of the data center industry has sparked debate over everything from electricity and water usage to noise concerns.

• Utilities and grid planners have warned that data center electricity demand is growing rapidly, driven in part by artificial intelligence (AI) workloads that require more computing power than traditional cloud services.
• In some forecasts, data centers could account for roughly 20% to 30% of electricity demand in parts of Virginia over the next decade if current growth trends continue.
• For some Virginia residents living near data centers, the constant hum from cooling systems, back-up generators, and other equipment has become a quality of life issue.

Data centers also typically rely on large diesel-powered backup generators to ensure uninterrupted operations during power outages, which raises concerns about local air quality in some communities.

And, depending on the design and cooling technology, large facilities can consume hundreds of thousands of gallons of water per day to cool server racks. Some large campuses reportedly use volumes comparable to those of a small town, raising sustainability questions in some communities.

Adding to the debate, the existing data center sales tax exemption in Virginia cost an estimated $1.6 billion last fiscal year, according to the Commonwealth’s tax disclosures.

That massive exemption and the growing backlash over the more than 600 data centers already in the Commonwealth have made data centers a politically sensitive issue.

But Virginia isn't alone. Similar data center debates have erupted across the United States.

A recent Gallup poll finds that 71% of Americans now oppose the construction of AI data centers in their local communities (with 48% strongly opposed). The pollsters note that local data center construction is more unpopular in the U.S. than building a nuclear power plant.

As of June 2026, according to various online trackers, more than 25 states are either advancing data-center-related legislation or have enacted measures that address grid cots, reporting requirements, utility regulation, tax incentives, or local authority over data centers.

Virginia data center tax exemption: What's next?

For most residents, the immediate impact of the new tax will likely be indirect, since the data center tax revenue will flow into the Commonwealth's general fund.

Notably, under the budget compromise, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) would play a larger role in regulating data centers. The agency, currently responsible for protecting Virginia's air, water, and land resources, would study data center impacts, create rules, and oversee limits on issues including noise and water use.

Will Spanberger sign? Gov. Spanberger, who has signaled support for the compromise, is expected to sign the budget.

Her signature will end this year’s fiscal standoff, but not the broader debate over how and whether the data center industry should be taxed or constrained. So stay tuned.

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A steep sell-off in South Korea spread to Europe and the U.S. on Tuesday, as investors, traders and speculators asked hard questions about the sustainability of capex plans amid what so far has seemed to be an ever-expanding artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is talking up another cutting-edge corner of the stock market.

The KOSPI Index, which includes South Korea-based semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL), fell 910 points, or 9.99%, to 8,203 on Tuesday. The two chipmakers, which account for more than half of the KOSPI's value, had led the index past the 9,100 level for the first time ever on Monday.

By the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 2.2% at 25,587, the broad-based S&P 500 had declined by 1.4% to 7,365, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1% at 51,666.

"There is a great near-term buying window for many of the high-flying memory and other technology stocks," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes, noting that memory stocks showed relative strength on Monday as the Nasdaq sold off late, "but lost their mojo" because of what happened overseas.

Indeed, Navellier expects Micron Technology (MU, -13.2%) to announce record top- and bottom-line results after the closing bell on Wednesday. "The last correction in AI-related stocks this month only lasted four trading days," he writes, "so every dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity."

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The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 0.7% to $73.34 per barrel and has now retreated almost 40% from its wartime highs near $120, as inflation pressure from the Strait of Hormuz continues to ease.

Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to another new 52-week high on Tuesday before settling at 4.200% vs 4.219% on Monday, as markets continue to price in a path for short-term interest rates under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Big Blue gets a quantum bounce from the White House

International Business Machines (IBM, +5.0%) was No. 1 among the 30 Dow Jones stocks on Tuesday, as markets bid up the old-school technology firm on word from the White House of two new executive orders designed to accelerate quantum innovation and to protect against cryptographic attacks.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS, +2.2%) showed green numbers, too. But quantum computing wasn't immune to broader selling pressure in the tech space, with Rigetti Computing (RGTI, -0.5%) and IonQ (IONQ, -0.8%) lower for the day.

Infleqtion (INFQ, +12.0%), which completed its initial public offering (IPO) in February, and Quantinuum (QNT, +13.5%), a former subsidiary of Honeywell (HON, -2.5%) that debuted as a standalone public company on June 4, did post big gains.

"Quantum technologies represent the next generation of innovation across computing, sensing, and networking, with enormous significance for our country's economic growth, scientific research, and cyber security," President Donald Trump said on Monday. "It's really a big deal that we're doing."

ARK is buying more SPCX

SpaceX (SPCX, +1.0%) enjoyed its first positive session since last Tuesday after ARK Invest revealed through its trade notification system that it purchased a total of 210,121 SPCX shares.

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK, -2.1%) added 131,837 shares, the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ, -2.8%) 43,486. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW, -2.0%) and ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX, 1.7%) bought 21,506 and 13,292 shares, respectively.

On Monday, SPCX stock was down more than 16%, and its market cap declined by about $400 billion. According to Dow Jones Market Data, that's the second-biggest single-day loss for any company in stock market history.

Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino initiated coverage of SPCX with a Neutral (Hold) rating and a $170 12-month target price. "The current valuation requires premium multiples on very aggressive revenue and EBITDA growth assumptions," Minervino says. "With some of the markets that SPCX operates in being relatively unproven, we believe a wide range of outcomes exist."

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Last month, Amazon announced anyone with a Kindle built before 2013 will no longer have access to the Kindle Store, Kindle Unlimited or the "send to Kindle" service. The news effectively meant that older Kindles would be almost useless.

If your device was among the models affected, this year's Amazon Prime Day sale is the perfect opportunity to snag the upgraded device you need at a discount.

Whether you're shopping for a brand new eReader or looking for something used but still in good condition, this week, the major online marketplace is packed with plenty of discounted tech to save you money. To help you find the right replacement for your old eReader, here's a roundup of the best Amazon Prime Day deals on Kindles this week.

Best Prime Day Kindle deals to shop now

To get the most time out of your next Kindle purchase, it helps to buy brand new. Since companies tend to stop providing support after a few years and, in Amazon's case, may even remove features, you can get the most years out of your next Kindle before support ends by getting the latest model.

If you get that latest model during the Amazon Prime Day sale, you can stretch your dollar even further by paying less than full price. With that in mind, here are the best Amazon Prime Day Kindle deals available right now:

Tips for buying a used Kindle on Amazon

If you held onto your last Kindle long enough that Amazon cut support for it, even a used Kindle that's a couple years old will feel like a major upgrade in features and functionality.

And you can often find prices even lower than the best Prime Day deals on the latest models if you browse Amazon Resale, the major retailer's used marketplace.

But there is a catch. Buying used tech means you have to be careful about the quality and condition of the device you're buying. Since Amazon's marketplace can be a little confusing to navigate, here are a few tips to get your money's worth when shopping used:

• Choose "like new" condition: Amazon rates the condition of used items on its website on a scale of "as is" to "like new." While even the worst condition products should still be functional, tech is one of those categories where you want to stick as close to new condition as possible.
• Note the return policy: While there are some things you can't return to Amazon, used products aren't on the list. Still, you will have a limited window of time during which you can get a refund. As soon as the Kindle arrives, test out all the features a few times over to make sure everything works as expected. That includes page navigation, charging speed, downloading books, browsing your library and other key features you need for a smooth reading experience. That way, if something is off, you're well within the return window to get your money back.
• Check the seller: Your best bet is to go with a Kindle that's shipped and sold by Amazon directly. But depending on the model you're looking at, the device in the best condition might be from a third-party seller. If that's the case, make sure the seller has a strong rating (with many reviews) and then double check their return policy, as it can differ from Amazon's standard return policy.

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Many retirees rely on their homes for financial security. According to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, home equity accounts for a substantial share of net worth among households aged 65–74.

But when it comes time to tap that value, often through a sale, converting housing wealth into cash doesn’t always go as planned for older adults.

A recent study finds that even when home prices are relatively strong, the proceeds older sellers receive can differ meaningfully from those of younger homeowners. Though timing and how the sale is managed play a role.

And while the research doesn’t point to a single cause for the disparity, it raises broader questions about how home-sale outcomes can affect retirement income and, yes, taxes. Here’s more to know.

Why older homeowners get less money for their homes

A study from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College finds significant variation in sale outcomes for older homeowners. It analyzed roughly 10 million repeat home sales using CoreLogic deed records linked to demographic data to estimate sellers’ ages.

Researchers compared outcomes across age groups while controlling for home type, location, and broader market conditions and found a consistent gap.

A key takeaway? Older homeowners tend to realize lower proceeds when they sell compared with younger sellers with similar observable characteristics.

According to the study's findings:

• "Older sellers get less starting at age 70," with the gap "increasing with each additional year."
• There is an estimated 5% gap in realized sale proceeds over the average 11-year holding period for some cohorts.
• For a typical home, the differences can amount to tens of thousands of dollars, depending on market conditions. Per the study, for a median $400,000 home, that is roughly a $20,000 reduction in proceeds.

There appear to be several explanations for the gap. But the study points to two primary factors.

• First, older homeowners are more likely to sell homes with fewer recent updates, which can affect pricing even in strong markets.
• Second, the researchers report that in some cases, older adults are more likely to use off-market or less competitive listing channels than the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), which can result in fewer bidders.

Also worth noting: Some home sales at older ages are driven by life transitions like downsizing, health changes, or moves into assisted living, where speed and certainty matter more than maximizing the price. In some cases, that can mean accepting an early offer rather than waiting through a longer listing process.

How a lower home sale price affects retirement income

The impact of lower home proceeds can show up in how retirees adjust their broader financial picture after the sale.

A retiree may expect a home sale to generate a certain amount of cash, enough, for example, to fund a year or two of spending without significantly tapping retirement accounts. But if the actual sale comes in lower than expected, that shortfall might be covered elsewhere, e.g., through additional withdrawals from traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, or taxable investment accounts.

• Those withdrawals are generally taxed as ordinary income. As a result, a larger-than-planned draw in a single year can push a retiree into a higher marginal tax bracket, even if only part of their income crosses the threshold.
• The same increase in reported income can also eventually affect Medicare premiums (IRMMA surcharges), since those costs are tied to income levels from two years prior.

As a result, a lower-than-expected home sale price can have retirement planning implications beyond the transaction itself.

Capital gains tax on home sales over age 65

Even though the tax impact here is primarily about how income replacement flows through the rest of the retirement portfolio, capital gains are an important consideration in retirement.

The tax treatment of a primary residence remains unchanged, including the capital gains home sale exclusion of up to $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for married couples. That tax break can shield many homeowners entirely from tax on the sale.

Note: A 2026 analysis by the Tax Policy Center and Brookings Institution finds that about 90% of households age 65 and older will likely remain within the current home-sale capital gains exclusion, while roughly 10% would have gains large enough to exceed it.

Still, other recent data indicate that approximately 8% of home sales resulted in gains that exceeded the home exclusion threshold. That's more than double the percentage over the last five years or so, according to a report from the consumer information and analytics company CoreLogic.

That rising share of taxable gains has prompted several proposals on Capitol Hill, including bills that would eliminate capital gains taxes on home sales and a recent legislative proposal to increase the capital gains exclusion to $1 million for homeowners age 65 and older.

Why is this happening? One issue is that the exclusion limit hasn't been adjusted for inflation, so the value of the tax relief provided by the home sale exclusion has eroded over time.

As a result, homeowners across the U.S., but more often in states with high property values, like California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida, and Colorado, are likely to see gains exceed the exemption limit.

Selling a home in retirement: Bottom line

If you're considering a home sale, it may help to speak with a financial planner or tax professional first to understand how the proceeds could affect your retirement finances.

Every individual's financial situation is different, and a trusted professional can help with a tailored strategy.

However, a few considerations:

• How the sale fits into your broader retirement income strategy
• Whether the proceeds could affect taxable income or Medicare premiums
• How the proceeds will be used, saved, or reinvested

It may also be worth considering whether the timing of the sale allows enough time to attract multiple buyers. As the study suggests, urgency can limit a seller's options and make it harder to maximize the sale price.

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The main equity indexes were mixed on Monday, as market participants continued to monitor negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors, traders and speculators also observed the passing of Alan Greenspan, who led the Federal Reserve for almost 20 years and was among the most important central bankers of our time.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% to 51,712, but the S&P 500 was down 0.4% to 7,472, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had shed 1.3% at 26,166.

Communication services stocks were the worst-performing group, with the sector weighed down by recent addition SpaceX (SPCX, -16.4%) posting a third straight daily decline less than two weeks after the biggest IPO ever.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract fell by 2.0% to $74.35 per barrel. WTI has retraced about 86% of its surge to $119.48 on March 9, the intraday peak amid war in the Middle East.

The 2-year Treasury yield ticked up/down to 4.232% from 4.179% on Thursday, with the market-based barometer of short-term interest rates hitting another 52-week high on Monday.

Following its two-day meeting last week, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. You can catch up on news and developments around the FOMC meeting at our June Fed meeting blog.

Alan Greenspan, the 'Maestro' of the modern Fed

Whether you deem the development positive or negative, and even if it's just the way things have always been in your experience, it's fair to say Alan Greenspan is the template for the modern celebrity Fed chair.

Greenspan, who led the world's most important central bank from 1987 until 2006, died on Monday at 100 years old.

Nominated by Ronald Reagan to succeed Paul Volcker, a historical figure in his own right, he led the central bank under a total of four presidents, including Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

After assuming leadership of the Fed on August 11, 1987, Greenspan guided Washington, D.C., and Wall Street out of Black Monday that October and into an economic boom that lasted, almost uninterrupted, through the 1990s.

"Since becoming a central banker," he testified to Congress in September 1987, "I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said."

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Later, in December 1996, he wondered, "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions," as the dot-com era unfolded.

Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Treasury Deputy Secretary Larry Summers famously formed what Time magazine called the "committee to save the world" in February 1999.

Bob Woodward of The Washington Post titled his 2000 biography "Maestro: Greenspan's Fed and the American Boom." That was well before his retirement from the central bank in 2006.

It also preceded the Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession of 2007-09, a series of events that earned Greenspan another nickname, "Mr. Bubble," bestowed when he no longer held any real power.

MU sees strong demand

Micron Technology (MU, +6.8%) extended its 2026 rally on Monday as markets prepared for the tech stock to report fiscal third-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday.

MU is up nearly 300% so far this year, the semiconductor stock rising along with demand for the memory and storage hardware essential to the still-accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout.

Indeed, Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini is on the lookout for cracks in Micron's big gross and operating margin numbers: "While the durability of GM above 80% remains a central question," he writes "we believe the more important issue is whether OM can sustain a 70%-75% range over a multi-quarter — or even multi-year — period."

Hosseini's model shows normalization for margins beginning in fiscal 2028. "Nonetheless," the analyst concludes, "with annualized EPS potentially reaching $160 in FY27, we continue to see meaningful upside to the stock relative to our $1,750 price target."

What will FDX deliver on Tuesday?

FedEx (FDX, +1.2%) hasn't put up year-to-date gains quite like MU's, but it is among the top 10% of S&P 500 stocks so far in 2026 with a total return of greater than 40%. That performance through Monday was supported by recently raised guidance, as well as the completion of much of its corporate restructuring.

"While the market will naturally look for forward commentary," Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan writes in a preview of FedEx's post-closing-bell turn on the earnings calendar this Tuesday, "we believe this print will be centered around: whether FedEx can deliver against its updated FY26 framework."

Chan, who reiterated his Buy rating and his $442 12-month target price for the industrial stock, will focus on the core Federal Express (FEC) parcel business and whether strength from last quarter carried through a more normalized non-peak quarter.

"Although the near-term print still includes several moving pieces," he concludes, "the larger outlook has improved materially, especially with the parcel business showing evidence of better revenue quality, stronger yield management, improved network efficiency, and more disciplined cost execution."

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At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve voted to pause interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range yet again. This latest in a series of pauses has left savers in limbo.

With inflation topping 4% and most savings accounts barely keeping pace, where is the best place to stash the cash you don't need right now?

If you don't want it to lose value amid rising inflation but you also don't want to risk exposing it to the market by investing it, a certificate of deposit (CD) account is one of your best options.

But how do you choose the right term length? That really comes down to what the Federal Reserve's next move is. While a 5-year CD was your best bet in the past, with fed rates still above average while inflation was ticking downward, the uncertainty in today's economy makes those longer-term CDs less attractive.

With the outlook for both inflation and future Fed rate moves uncertain, your best bet right now is a short-term CD so you can lock in today's rate while still having flexibility to shift your cash somewhere else depending on where the market goes.

Why a short-term CD is your best after the fed meeting

Like high-yield savings accounts, CD rates generally move in the same direction as Federal Reserve policy. The difference is that a CD locks in a fixed rate for the entire term, while savings account rates can rise or fall at any time.

With many short and long-term CDs offering around 4% right now, locking in those above-average rates for as long as possible was a great idea when inflation was trending downward. But now that inflation is back above 4% and only a few savings accounts are beating it, a short-term CD, with a term of, say, six or so months, might be a better bet.

This allows you to lock in higher rates for a few months while you wait to see what happens with inflation and what kind of signals the Federal Reserve puts out about where interest rates might land by the end of the year.

If the Federal Reserve raises rates in response to stubbornly high inflation, you'll have the opportunity to lock in those new higher rates after the term is up. If inflation, instead, starts falling again, you can move your cash after those few months to a longer-term CD to lock in these rates for longer.

With that in mind, use the tool below to find the top CD rates available today:

Economic signs to watch to anticipate the future of interest rates

After stashing your cash in a short term CD, you can keep an eye on the economy in the next few months while you wait for it to mature. That way, when it does mature, you'll have a good idea of where to move your cash next to maximize your yields.

• Watch for clues as to how Kevin Warsh will change the Fed. Warsh has historically been a proponent of keeping rates higher rather than risking inflation. But some analysts speculate that he might be more likely to give in to pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates. Keep tabs on what he says in upcoming meetings to get a sense of which way he might lean in the future.
• Keep up with the monthly CPI reports. The consumer price index released every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics not only gives you a broad picture of how your own costs are changing, but it's an important measure of inflation tracked by the Federal Reserve. If inflation keeps going up, the Fed is likely to either keep rates paused or hike them further. If inflation slows, rate cuts might be in the future.
• Check the latest jobs reports. In addition to inflation, the Federal Reserve also closely watches employment data, including unemployment rates and wage levels, when setting its monetary policy.
• Track the 10-year Treasury yield. Especially for longer-term savings accounts, such as your CD, rates can be influenced by yields on multiyear Treasury bonds. This is also an important economic indicator to watch if you might be buying a house soon, as the 10-year Treasury yield also influences mortgage rates.

Even if you don't want to track economic indicators that closely for the rest of the year, you can stash your cash in a short term CD now and set a reminder to check in on what's going on in the market in the weeks before it matures.

From there, you can decide whether to move your cash into another short-term CD or lock in rates for longer by opting for a multiyear CD.

Related content

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• What the Fed's Rate Pause Really Means for Your Money
• Where to Store Your Cash in 2026
• How Much Should You Save in An Emergency Fund?

Stocks gapped up at the opening bell on Thursday and ended a holiday-shortened week on an upbeat note after the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement that opens the Strait of Hormuz on a provisional basis for 60 days.

The prospect of peace in the Middle East and relief from an energy shock revived animal spirits dulled by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hints of higher interest rates during the press conference after the first Fed meeting of his tenure.

By the time the closing bell rang, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1% for the day and 0.7% for the week at 51,565, good enough for another new all-time weekly closing high.

The S&P 500 had added 1.1% at 7,500, bringing the broad-based index to a 0.9% gain for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 1.9% on Thursday and 2.4% for the four days at 26,517.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract declined by 0.4% to $75.71 per barrel. WTI was down more than 10% this week and is now just 13% above its closing price on February 27, the day before the war in the Middle East began.

The 2-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.177% from 4.163% on Wednesday. This market-based barometer of short-term interest rates hit a 52-week high on Thursday.

Following its two-day meeting this week, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. Its short statement concluded with a firm commitment to the inflation half of its dual mandate: "The Committee will deliver price stability."

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As Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates notes, Warsh "was perceived as more hawkish than hoped for" during his first (and maybe last) FOMC press conference.

"The commentary Warsh gave made it clear that, currently, unless inflation falls much closer to the 2% target, which he made clear would not be changed, a rate hike was likely by year's end," Navellier concludes.

You can catch up on news and developments around the FOMC meeting at our June Fed meeting blog.

Apple and Intel are making a deal

Intel (INTC, +10.6%) was among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks on Thursday, and Apple (AAPL, +0.7%) was higher, too, after President Donald Trump posted about a big deal between the two iconic American companies early Thursday morning.

"Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America," Trump said in a lengthy post on Truth Social. "The Technology the World relies on was invented in America," he began. "We all remember 'Intel Inside.'"

Indeed, we do, and the president wants to undo the work of his predecessors who allowed "Taiwan and others [to] steal our Semiconductor Factories" and "forgot to protect our Industries with TARIFFS."

Neither Intel nor Apple confirmed the president's post, though The Wall Street Journal reported on May 8 that the companies had reached a preliminary chipmaking agreement.

Elsewhere in an otherwise rapidly expanding tech universe, SpaceX (SPCX, -3.6%) posted a second straight down day amid the afterburn from the biggest IPO ever.

Big Blue has no bounce

International Business Machines (IBM, -5.1%) was the worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Thursday, sliding along with Accenture (ACN, -16.3%) after the fellow IT services provider shared worse-than-expected top-line guidance for its full fiscal year, citing operating conditions in the Middle East.

CEO Julie Sweet said during the tech stock's conference call that the war was impacting spending plans for many of its clients. Management also noted market concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on its business.

Accenture now expects to see revenue growth of 3% to 4%, down from an estimate of 3% to 5% in March. ACN stock had its worst day on record on Thursday.

Related content

• Earnings Calendar and Analysis for Next Week (June 22-26)
• 3 Ways Kevin Warsh Will Change the Fed
• Kiplinger's Investing Playbook for the Second Half of 2026

If your weekend barbecue shopping trip feels more expensive this year, you’re not alone.

The biggest culprit? High beef prices, which are up about 14% year over year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This cost is sometimes referred to as the "burger tax."

This burger sticker shock comes as shoppers across the U.S. have been dealing with higher grocery bills for years, especially when buying staples like meat, eggs, and dairy products.

And if you live in a state that still taxes groceries, the number on your receipt is even higher. Here's more of what you need to know.

Why is the price of beef so high?

While overall grocery prices are up 3.1% over last year due to inflation, the long-term impact is significant. Food prices at home have jumped 27% over the last five years.

And…the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects food-at-home prices to continue rising in 2026, with beef among the categories projected to see some of the strongest price growth.

As a result, feeding 10 guests at a backyard barbecue could now cost roughly $15 (or more) per person. Ground beef, up 70% since 2021 and now reportedly averaging about $6.90 a pound, is responsible for much of that increase.

Declining cattle numbers, high feed costs, drought, and consistent beef consumption in the U.S. all contribute to soaring prices.

Grocery tax by state

If rising food prices weren't enough, residents in 13 states face an additional expense because some states continue to tax groceries.

In some cases, that means full statewide tax; in others, reduced rates or hybrid systems that still add a charge at checkout.

For example, Mississippi, Idaho, South Dakota, and Hawaii apply full or near-full state tax rates to grocery purchases. But over the last few years, several states (Oklahoma and Kansas are just two) have eliminated their state-level grocery taxes (though local municipal taxes still apply at checkout in many areas).

Below is what that looks like in dollar terms for a typical cookout basket.

Note: Prior estimates from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute put the cost of a typical 10-person backyard barbecue at about $130. With ground beef prices up roughly 14% over the past year, a comparable cookout basket today would likely be closer to $150, or more, depending on menu choices and substitutions.

States with Statewide Grocery Tax This Year (Assumes a $150 grocery basket for a 10-person cookout)

*Note: Additional city, county, or transit district taxes may apply on top of these base numbers.

** Hawaii imposes a general excise tax rather than a traditional sales tax.

Here's where things stand in the remaining states that still technically tax groceries but have eliminated or reduced state-level tax.

Oklahoma: The Sooner State repealed its 4.5% state grocery tax in 2024, though local sales taxes may still apply.

Kansas: Kansas fully phased out its state grocery tax last year after gradually reducing the rate over several years. Local taxes may still be charged on food purchases.

Virginia: Virginia taxes groceries at a reduced rate of 1%, split between state and local governments.

Illinois: Illinois ended its statewide 1% grocery tax as of 2026, but local governments can impose their own grocery taxes, meaning some shoppers still pay tax at checkout.

Arkansas: Arkansas eliminated its state grocery tax in 2025, although some cities and counties continue to levy local taxes on food purchases.

Bottom line: Why some states still tax groceries in 2026

Most states exempt groceries from sales taxes because food is considered a necessity. However, a handful continue to tax groceries at either the full state sales tax rate or a reduced rate.

• Supporters argue that grocery taxes provide a stable source of revenue that helps fund schools, roads and other public services. They also contend that broad-based sales taxes allow states to keep other taxes lower.
• Critics counter that grocery taxes disproportionately affect lower-income households because food purchases consume a larger share of their budgets.

The debate has intensified in recent years as inflation pushed food prices higher, and as a result, several states have reduced or eliminated grocery taxes.

In Alabama, lawmakers have temporarily suspended the 2% state sales tax on most groceries until June 30, to alleviate high food prices, though local sales taxes remain in place. Similarly, as Kiplinger has reported, Illinois and Arkansas have recently eliminated their state-level grocery taxes, while local taxes still apply in some areas.

Notably, some cities are exploring targeted approaches to making food more affordable and accessible. For example, San Francisco's “Affordable Groceries Act” has recently been proposed by District 5 supervisor Bilal Mahmood.

Modeled after Mayor Zohran Mamdani's city-owned grocery store initiative in New York City, the San Francisco bill is designed to support new grocery stores in underserved neighborhoods through an affordable grocery fund and a vacancy tax imposed on large chains that close stores in the city.

Read More

• Food Tax: Which States Still Tax Groceries in 2026?
• 9 No-Income-Tax States Ranked by Cost of Living
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Weeks away from the official launch of "Trump Accounts," the child savings vehicles from the 2025 tax bill, a targeted spinoff is set to roll out.

Dubbed "Fostering the Future Accounts," this new initiative is designed to help children in foster care save for future housing, educational, and career development costs as they transition to adulthood.

First lady Melania Trump and U.S. Department of the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced in a press release that these new accounts will open on July 4, 2026.

“Fostering the Future Accounts give foster children the same chance for asset ownership and long-term wealth building as every other American child," Mrs. Trump remarked. "By investing in our foster youth now, we help strengthen America’s workforce, communities, and economic future."

But because these accounts will be opened and managed by state infrastructure, states must opt in. Not everyone is on board. Read on for who qualifies and what's holding back the remaining 27 states.

New: Low-Tax States For Middle-Class Families Ranked by Childcare Affordability

Fostering the Future Accounts for kids

The Trump "Fostering the Future Accounts" are an offshoot of standard Trump Accounts structured to help children in foster care save for long-term financial goals, like a down payment on a home or higher education expenses.

To qualify, a child must be:

• Under age 18
• A U.S. citizen with a Social Security number

These accounts might be opened by a state, territorial, or tribal child welfare agency. They can also be opened by designated foster parents or other legal guardians in the foster care system.

Which states are participating?

Because Fostering the Future Accounts are managed at the state level, access depends on local legislative approval. So far, governors in the following 23 states have pledged to offer the program, according to White House officials:

Participating state child welfare agencies must submit IRS Form 4547 (Trump Account Election) to formally open an account for each eligible child in their custody.

Fostering the Future Accounts vs standard Trump Accounts

Although Fostering the Future accounts function the same as a standard Trump Account — investing in stock market index funds to grow tax-deferred savings — there are some nuances in how each is opened and funded.

For instance, when a parent or guardian opens a standard Trump Account, they can claim a $1,000 federal seed deposit directly into the newborn's account, provided their child is born from 2025 to 2028.

However, "a child welfare agency cannot elect to receive the $1,000 pilot program contribution to the child's [Fostering the Future] Account," as the IRS reported in a recent update. Instead, only a foster parent or other qualifying individual who anticipates caring for the child might claim this federal seed money for the child's account.

Here's a table highlighting several other key differences between the two types of accounts:

The Fostering the Future Accounts also have unique funding methods that the federal government doesn't offer for standard Trump Accounts.

For example, state officials can redirect existing state resources — such as unused Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) block grants — into a foster child's savings, according to the Administration for Children and Families (ACF).

Why isn't my state on the list?

Notably, all 23 states opting into Fostering the Future Accounts are GOP-led, reflecting the partisan divide surrounding Trump Accounts, which were a key component of the 2025 Trump tax bill.

But beyond partisan lines, several other reasons exist for why states might heavily debate signing on:

• Strained budgets. State child welfare departments often depend on federal funding streams such as TANF and the Social Services Block Grant (SSBG) to operate. Because most states have already finalized their budgets for the upcoming fiscal year, adding new, unplanned programs midcycle might be too financially constrained.
• Administrative hurdles. Fostering the Future Account documentation, including individual investment portfolios and private donations for every child, must be monitored. As such, participating state agencies are required to establish new protocols to continuously update this information, which might prove difficult given that children frequently shift between foster homes.
• Legal challenges. Legally, a state, territorial or tribal child welfare agency might open a Fostering the Future account, but the timeline of who holds account management authority can be constantly in flux. If a child is in temporary emergency care, for instance, then switches to kinship care or transitions between different county jurisdictions, it might be unclear who is legally authorized to update the account. (Note: the Treasury and ACF released joint guidance related to this issue.)

Ultimately, the Trump administration has set a target for all 50 states to sign on to Fostering the Future Accounts by December 2027.

However, some child welfare advocates worry that a prolonged state-by-state rollout will deepen economic disparities for children aging out of foster care — especially for children who move across state lines due to interstate adoptions or structural changes in their care.

Ruth Anne White, executive director of the National Center for Housing and Child Welfare, told independent news outlet, The Imprint. "But it's right there in the Child Welfare Policy Manual [released guidance] — as clear as day."

According to data from the National Council for Adoption, there are roughly 330,000 children in the U.S. foster care system. Statistics from the National Foster Youth Institute show that one in five foster youth face homelessness after aging out of the system, and only half secure gainful employment by age 24.

Supporters of the new initiative hope these accounts will disrupt those outcomes.

Yet while supporters have framed Fostering the Future Accounts as a solution to the financial hardships facing youth aging out of care, states will need to overcome complex questions surrounding budget allocations, administrative hurdles and bipartisan support.

Until then, foster parents and child welfare agencies will find that state lines dictate whether children in their care are eligible for these accounts.

Read More

• How to Claim Your Kid’s Trump Account in 3 Steps
• Adoption Tax Credit: What You Need to Know for 2026
• Child Tax Credit 2026: How Much Is It and What's Changed?

The main equity indexes were moving sideways through midday on Wednesday, as markets awaited word from the new leader of the world's most important central bank about inflation, interest rates and economic growth. All three fell sharply following the release of the first FOMC policy statement under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Maybe it's a little too simple, maybe it's not when the new chair is as loudly committed to keeping a tighter lid on Fed communications as this one is, but the Federal Open Market Committee used 344 words to announce a historically split decision following its April meeting, the final one under Jerome Powell's leadership.

Today, the FOMC approved a 132-word statement to announce a unanimous 12-0 decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% "in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate." The FOMC also "reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system."

Economic growth is solid "despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East," with strength in productivity and capital investment. Job growth is keeping up with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate is steady.

Noting that inflation is above the Fed's 2% target "in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy," the Warsh Fed delivered a terse conclusion: "The Committee will deliver price stability."

You can catch up on news and developments around the FOMC meeting at our June Fed meeting live blog.

Will the Fed raise the federal funds rate?

Market-based interest rates were up across the maturity spectrum, with the 2-year Treasury yield, widely watched as a gauge of short-term policy, rising to 4.216% from 4.047% on Tuesday.

CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of rate cuts and rate hikes based on 30-day fed funds futures prices, indicates the Warsh Fed could raise interest rates as soon as October.

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Continuing uncertainty about the details of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz lifted the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract by 0.3% to $75.49 per barrel.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined by 1% to 51,493, despite reaching another new all-time high on an intraday basis. The broad-based S&P 500 was down 1.2% at 7,420, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.3% at 26,021.

AVGO is an 'aggressive buy'

Broadcom (AVGO, +4.3%) led a rally for semiconductor stocks after Morgan Stanley analysts Harlan Sur and Mayur Ramdhani reiterated their Overweight (Buy) rating and said they'd be "aggressive buyers at current levels."

Indeed, the analysts see potential upside of 47.6% from AVGO's closing price on Wednesday based on their 12-month target price of $580. And it'll get there because of its "significant dominance" in advanced chip packaging and design.

Sur and Ramdhani note that Broadcom has helped Alphabet's (GOOGL, -2.5%) Google unit develop 14 advanced chips during a decade-long partnership, though markets have questioned the durability of that arrangement given Alphabet's ambitions to take chipmaking in-house.

AVGO was down 21.8% from its all-time closing high of $481.57 on June 2 through June 16, trimming its year-to-date gain to 9.1%. But Broadcom's trailing-12-month return is back well above 50% after today's price action.

Did a defensive stock take a SPCX hit?

Verizon Communications (VZ, -1.8%) is one of the best defensive stocks amid elevated uncertainty, but it does face rising competitive pressure from one of the hottest names in the market: SpaceX (SPCX, -5.0%).

UBS analyst John Hodulik framed the problem at a conference in December in a three-part question to CEO Greg Sankey of Verizon's "terrestrial" mobile service peer AT&T (T, -3.0%) about "low Earth orbit" service providers.

"Do you see LEO infrastructure as a complement or a substitute to terrestrial networks? How do you expect the business model of the LEO providers to evolve over time? And is it something that we should worry about as terrestrial mobile investors?"

AT&T and Verizon aren't staying Earth-bound, but they are using AST SpaceMobile (ASTS, +3.9%) rather than SpaceX unit Starlink to pursue their extraterrestrial ambitions. And AST lacks launched satellite capacity right now.

Hodulik reiterated his Neutral (Hold) rating on VZ stock and a $48 12-month target price after management introduced new service and device plans on June 15, as well as a loyalty program focused on customer retention.

Verizon expects the plans and the program "to be accretive to revenue and EBITDA growth and drive continued churn reduction." Management also confirmed its full-year financial guidance.

SPCX stock, meanwhile, had its first down day as a publicly traded company, three trading sessions after it debuted with the biggest IPO ever.

Related content

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It's a tale as old as time: If you live in a high-cost area like Long Island, San Francisco, or Seattle, your paycheck doesn't stretch nearly as far as it would in, say, Pittsburgh. Yet, the IRS taxes your income exactly the same.

A new bill from lawmakers on Capitol Hill would flip that script by linking your federal tax obligations to your home address.

The Cost of Living Tax Cut Act, introduced by House Reps. Laura Gillen (D-NY-04) and Mike Lawler (R-NY-17) would adjust federal income tax brackets based entirely on where a taxpayer lives.

"This bipartisan bill would help lower taxes for families in high-cost areas [like Long Island] by accounting for regional differences in the cost of living and ensuring taxpayers can keep more of what they earn," Gillen said in a recent release.

Lawler echoed the sentiment for his constituents in Hudson Valley, New York, arguing that the tax code should reflect the economic reality of high-cost regions.

Yet while the prospect of localized tax relief sounds promising to families in expensive ZIP codes, the proposal is likely to face heavy scrutiny over who will ultimately foot the bill for the corresponding drop in federal revenue.

Here is a breakdown of how this plan could change your take-home pay, which areas stand to benefit, and what this means for the upcoming mid-term election season this fall.

How the bill adjusts the tax brackets

The Cost of Living Tax Cut Act is designed to prevent households in more expensive regions from being pushed into higher tax brackets when their real purchasing power is relatively low compared with the rest of the U.S. If passed, the bill would take effect after December 31, 2026.

The bill's framework relies on localized data to determine your federal tax liability:

• The index: The bill directs the Secretary of Commerce to use regional price parities (RPPs) to calculate an annual cost-of-living index for metropolitan and rural areas.
• The adjustment: Instead of applying uniform national tax thresholds as it does now, the IRS would expand tax brackets in regions with an above-average cost of living.
• The savings: By widening the lower tax brackets, more of a household's income would be shielded from higher tax rates.

Who wins the affordability contest?

If passed, the Cost of Living Tax Cut Act would provide the most significant relief to major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) where the local purchasing power of a dollar is typically lower than the national average.

Per the most recent regional economic metrics from the Tax Foundation, the primary beneficiaries of this new bill would live in regions where a typical $100 has the real purchasing power of only $84 to $90. For example:

• California metros: The San Francisco Bay Area (Oakland, Berkeley, San Jose, Santa Clara), Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, and Santa Barbara.
• The Pacific Northwest: The greater Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area in Washington.
• Northwest corridor: The broader New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area (spanning NY, NJ, and PA), Boston-Cambridge-Newton (MA/NH), and high-cost zones in Connecticut.
• Hawaii and South Florida: Urban Honolulu and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach metroplex.

Under the proposed framework, families in the affected ZIP codes would see their tax brackets widened proportionally. Conversely, regions where the cost of living is at or below the national average — like parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, or Ohio — would see no changes to their baseline brackets.

However, federal policy historically requires an offset for targeted tax cuts. Since the legislation bars lawmakers from adjusting tax brackets downward in lower-cost regions, the federal government would have to absorb the resulting deficit, which could eventually lead to spending cuts or the search for alternative federal revenue sources.

The hidden cost of geographic tax cuts

Data published by the Rockefeller Institute of Government reveals that high-wage coastal states subsidize spending in the rest of the nation. For instance, in a single fiscal year, New York residents paid $19.4 billion more to the federal government than the state received, while California taxpayers contributed an extra $72 billion.

So if the federal tax code were to cut taxes for some areas and not others, that might lead to several potential long-term risks:

• A structural drop in federal revenue. Think tanks like the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities often note that targeted tax cuts substantially reduce federal funding for key national obligations like infrastructure, Social Security, and defense.
• Ripple effects in the tax code. Drops in federal revenue could lead to raising baseline tax rates nationwide, implementing broad surtaxes, or risking an increase in the national deficit. This fiscal pressure isn't unique to the federal government; for example, a state-level structural deficit was one reason Washington enacted a millionaire's tax on its wealthier residents.
• Porous boundaries and "tax cliffs." Relying on regional price indexes could create tax spikes right at city borders. For example, a taxpayer living just outside a high-cost metropolitan boundary line who works inside it could face a higher federal tax burden than a neighbor living just one mile away. A similar dynamic already plays out with commuters who live in one state and work in another.
• Increased regulatory burdens. Shifting to an address-based tax system forces the IRS to track, audit, and dynamically update tax brackets across hundreds of MSAs. In an era of $1 billion IRS funding cuts, managing localized federal brackets would heavily strain resources. Furthermore, tax preparation software would need to become more complex, potentially driving up filing costs for everyday taxpayers and increasing the risk of location-reporting errors or geographic fraud.

Bottom line: Will the legislation pass?

Even though the Cost of Living Tax Cut Act addresses a very real financial pressure point for millions of voters, it will most likely face a steep climb to become law.

The proposal must compete against much broader fiscal blueprints, like the 2025 Trump Tax Bill, which focused on making previously enacted individual tax cuts permanent and revamping the federal standard deduction. Adding a localized layer to the IRS tax code could complicate revenue projections and require extensive bipartisan negotiation and spending offsets.

With several congressional seats on the ballot this November and a recent 3.8% inflation surge reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, targeted affordability proposals may take center stage. Even if this specific bill stalls, it highlights a growing legislative focus on how your ZIP code impacts your wallet.

So, before making any sudden moving plans for a cheaper area, wait to see how these fall tax proposals shake out. Your bracket might not change, but your vote could shape future local tax policy.

Read More

• People Are Leaving High-Tax States: Here's Where They're Moving Instead
• New Bill Proposes $1 Million Capital Gains Tax Exclusion for Those Over Age 65
• Are No-Income Tax States Better to Live In?

Blue chip stocks emerged as the clear winners Tuesday, with strong gains in several high-priced names sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record high. But weakness in the tech sector kept pressure on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

After trading above 52,000 in intraday trading, the Dow closed up 0.6% at 51,999, its highest settlement ever. JPMorgan Chase (JPM, +3.7%) and Visa (V, +2.9%) were the best Dow Jones stocks today. With JPM trading at $331 per share and V at $333 per share, these two have an outsized influence on the price-weighted Dow.

Today marks the Dow's first foray above 52,000 — which happened just 12 trading days after it climbed above the 51,000 level for the first time. According to Dow Jones Market Data, this is the shortest amount of time the 30-stock index has taken to cross two 1,000-point thresholds since March 2021, when it took five days to rise from 32,000 to 33,000.

But the broader S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,511 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped 1.2% to 26,376 as several of the market's recent highfliers sold off.

Intel (INTC), for one, slumped 8.5%, but remains 220% higher for the year to date. Lumentum Holdings (LITE, -8.6%) and Marvell Technology (MRVL, -9.8%) also closed with sizable losses, but have still tripled in price this year.

SpaceX briefly rockets past Amazon's market cap

One notable tech stock that finished in positive territory today was SpaceX (SPCX). Shares jumped 4.8% on news that Elon Musk's satellite and space exploration company is buying AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion. SPCX stock is now trading nearly 50% above the $135 initial public offering (IPO) price.

The stock went public last Friday in the biggest IPO ever, and its first-day surge gave the company a market valuation of more than $2 trillion. Today's pop puts its market cap at $2.642 trillion — just below Magnificent 7 stock Amazon.com (AMZN, -0.04%) and its $2.646 trillion valuation. (SPCX briefly topped AMZN's market cap intraday.)

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SpaceX remains the sixth-largest U.S. company by market cap.

Oil prices continue to drop ahead of U.S.-Iran peace deal

While technology (-2.3%) was the biggest decliner of the 11 S&P 500 sectors today, energy (-0.3%) also saw notable losses as oil prices continued to decline.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 5.8% to $76.05 per barrel — their lowest close since March 3.

This comes after the U.S. and Iran agreed to sign a peace plan this Friday, and President Donald Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

"The persistent slide in crude oil prices, which accelerated this week following positive U.S.-Iran developments, is incredibly bullish for markets," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

He adds that the sharp decline in energy costs ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting — the first for new Chair Kevin Warsh — "offers favorable first-impression dynamics and raises the likelihood of an increasingly patient central bank willing to look through the current short-term inflation as a one-time shock."

How will markets react to a Warsh-led Fed?

If Warsh is "perceived as more dovish than expected, it should be bullish for stocks," says Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates. "If he's hawkish, it could bring volatility."

It's all but expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow, given that the labor market remains steady even as inflation has accelerated.

But market participants will be eyeing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot to see where the Warsh-led Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects the federal funds rate, unemployment rate and inflation rate to be over the short and long term.

You can follow along with the latest news and updates on the June Fed meeting on our live blog.

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After lawmakers approved HJR 1-F during a special session on June 2, a proposed constitutional amendment aimed at expanding property tax relief for homeowners is headed to the November ballot, setting up one of the most closely watched tax debates in recent Florida history.

For homeowners, the proposal could mean significant savings. Under the measure, Florida’s existing $50,000 homestead exemption would increase to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, reducing the portion of a home’s value subject to tax.

A homeowner with a $400,000 primary residence could save thousands of dollars annually, depending on local tax rates. And for supporters, that potential savings is exactly the point.

Critics, however, have raised questions about how local governments would replace the revenue currently generated by property taxes, which a legislative analysis projects could drain local municipalities of up to $8.4 billion annually by 2028.

And…a nonprofit group, naming two former South Florida mayors as plaintiffs, has filed a lawsuit against the measure, arguing that the ballot summary is "unconstitutionally biased, misleading, and inaccurate."

These tensions have emerged as central questions surrounding the proposal as it heads toward a statewide vote. Here's more of what you need to know.

The HJR 1-F property tax exemption for Florida homeowners

The passage of HJR 1-F moves the long-debated property tax relief conversation in Florida from Tallahassee to the ballot box.

• If approved by at least 60% of Florida voters this November, the amendment would significantly expand the state’s homestead exemption for qualifying homeowners.
• The proposal applies to owner-occupied primary residences that qualify for Florida’s homestead exemption and would not extend to second homes or investment properties.
• The measure also introduces a tiered structure based on residency duration.

Current Floridians and those who establish permanent residency by December 31, 2026, would be eligible for the full tax break immediately, while anyone moving to the state after that date would have to wait five years before becoming eligible for the full $250,000 exemption.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has framed the measure as a way to provide relief for homeowners facing rising housing costs, insurance premiums, and other housing-related expenses.

“I think a lot of people need relief,” DeSantis told reporters in a recent presser, adding, "I think a lot of people have been wondering, where can we get it? We’re showing a pathway to be able to get that done that I think is going to be transformational for people."

To justify that relief, the administration points to an aggressive surge in local property tax collections.

According to data released by the governor’s office, property tax revenue collected by Florida local governments has nearly doubled over the past seven years, climbing from $32 billion to $60 billion. It is currently projected to reach $83 billion by 2032.

Why property taxes matter

Property taxes have become an increasingly visible part of the cost of homeownership, particularly in fast-growing areas where home values have climbed sharply over the past decade.

For retirees, fixed-income residents, and longtime homeowners, the appeal of lower property tax bills is easy to understand. Many are already balancing rising insurance premiums, HOA fees, utility costs, and other housing-related expenses.

Supporters argue homeowners should not continue paying higher taxes simply because their property values have increased. They view the amendment as long-overdue relief that would allow residents to keep more of their own money while strengthening Florida’s reputation as a low-tax state.

For many households, even modest savings could have a meaningful impact on annual budgets.

Tradeoffs for Florida voters

The debate surrounding the amendment extends beyond annual tax bills and potential savings.

Former State Sen. Jeff Brandes has described the proposal as "a tax shift, not a tax cut," arguing that while homeowners may pay less directly, the costs associated with funding local government services do not simply disappear.

Property taxes currently help support many of the services and infrastructure residents rely on every day, including public safety, road maintenance, infrastructure improvements, and emergency preparedness.

Notably, HJR 1-F legally requires local governments to prioritize remaining property tax revenues strictly on designated "core services," such as law enforcement, fire protection, and flood control.

However, the lawsuit filed by Save Our Voters From Misleading Ballot Language argues that the ballot summary's promise of "ensuring funding for core services" is misleading when the policy itself cuts the revenue available to pay for them.

In a state that regularly faces hurricanes and severe weather events, how local governments would replace billions of dollars in projected revenue reductions remains one of the proposal’s biggest unanswered questions.

Cragin Mosteller, spokesperson for the Florida Association of Counties, told the Miami Herald that "one of the things that is easy to overlook sometimes is that we move to a community not only because it’s safe but because it’s wonderful, because it has a great quality of life."

For opponents, the question isn’t whether homeowners deserve lower taxes. It’s whether communities can continue delivering that quality of life if one of their largest sources of funding is significantly reduced.

Ultimately, the decision comes down to how homeowners view property taxes: as a recurring cost of homeownership or an investment in the neighborhood surrounding that home.

Infrastructure and public safety are easy to take for granted when they work seamlessly, but their true value becomes clear the moment those services are stretched thin.

What happens next

The amendment must receive at least 60% voter approval to become part of the Florida Constitution — assuming the text first survives its current legal challenge. So between now and Election Day in November, debate over the measure will continue as those on both sides try to win over voters.

Floridians will ultimately have to weigh historic tax savings for their household budgets against long-term funding concerns and the certainty of local services they rely on every day.

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Stocks jumped out of the gate and stayed higher through the close as market participants cheered news of potential peace in the Middle East. Oil prices, meanwhile, cratered as reports of a deal to end the months-long war circulated, though the Federal Reserve is still likely to stay on hold at this week's meeting.

Over the weekend, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on X "that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED." President Donald Trump later confirmed the news.

"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. In a separate post, the president noted that the Strait of Hormuz will be open "upon the signing of the Deal on Friday."

Oil prices fell as a result, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbling 4.9% to $80.75 per barrel — their lowest settlement since early March.

Stocks, on the other hand, soared. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.9% at 51,671 — a new record closing high — the broader S&P 500 was 1.7% higher at 7,554, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had jumped 3.1% to 26,683.

Sinking oil prices won't change the Fed's path this week

The Federal Reserve will kick off its June policy meeting tomorrow and deliver its first statement under the leadership of new Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday afternoon.

Looking for more timely stock market news to help gauge the health of your portfolio? Sign up for Closing Bell, our free newsletter that's delivered straight to your inbox at the close of each trading day.

Spiking oil prices as a result of the war in Iran have accelerated inflation, putting the chances for rate cuts this year at zero. And while energy prices are down from their wartime highs, it's unlikely the Federal Open Market Committee will lower the federal funds rate anytime soon.

However, what this does is quiet calls for rate hikes, which have increased in recent weeks.

Roku drops despite $22 billion buyout offer

In single stock news, Roku (ROKU) fell 1.9% even after Fox (FOX, -15.2%) said it will buy the streaming device maker in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $22 billion, or $160 per ROKU share — a more than 11% premium to the stock's June 12 close.

Typically, stocks rise to the per-share offer once the offer is announced, but Roku surged nearly 23% on Friday on rumors of a potential buyout so some of the premium was already priced in.

TD Cowen more than doubles its Micron price target

Micron Technology (MU) was on the positive side of the ledger today, surging 10.8% after TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar reiterated a Buy rating on the red-hot chip stock and lifted his price target to $1,500 from $660. This new target price represents implied upside of 38% to current levels.

Sankar believes demand for the memory chipmaker's products will help pricing strength "persist into the second half of calendar year 2027." Additionally, he sees Micron's role in artificial intelligence as "structural, not cyclical," which will provide a tailwind for earnings over the next several years.

Micron will report its fiscal third-quarter results after the June 24 close and Wall Street is expecting revenue to rise nearly fourfold from the year prior and earnings to surge to $19.69 per share from $1.91 per share.

SpaceX soars in first full trading day

SpaceX (SPCX) also had a strong showing in its first full session. After closing Friday more than 19% above its IPO price, SPCX stock finished Monday up 19.6% at $192.50.

The SpaceX IPO "has reinvigorated the tech trade," says Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates. "The success of such a huge IPO, now valued at $2.26 trillion, paves the way for the other outsized IPOs in the pipeline: Anthropic and OpenAI."

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The June Fed meeting concluded on Wednesday June 17, with the central bank's latest policy decision.

With energy prices still high and inflation accelerating, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged this time around.

Wall Street was also tuned into new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting press conference, where he unveiled new changes that are coming to the central bank.

The Kiplinger team reported on the June Fed meeting, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy. Scroll for the latest updates.

How Does the Federal Reserve Work? | 3 Ways Kevin Warsh Will Change the Fed | How the New Fed Chair Could Impact What You Pay in Taxes this Year

Fed meeting schedule for 2026

The next Fed meeting, which runs from June 16 through June 17, marks the fourth gathering of 2026.

"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows.

The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."

Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm, though this could change under Warsh's leadership.

Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:

June 16 to 17

July 28 to 29

September 15 to 16

October 27 to 28

December 8 to 9

The stock market is trading higher to start Fed week

Stocks are solidly in positive territory on Monday as market participants cheer signs of potential peace in the Middle East.

Over the weekend, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on X "that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED." President Donald Trump later confirmed the news.

At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1% at 51,928, the broader S&P 500 was 1.9% higher at 7,573, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 3% to 26,667.

Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note is down 3.3 basis points at 4.052%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is off 2.4 basis points at 4.461%.

- Karee Venema

Who is Kevin Warsh?

On May 13, the Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair, replacing Jerome Powell, who had served in that position since 2018.

But who is Kevin Warsh?

Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011. He was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.

Before his time at the Federal Reserve, Warsh was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.

Prior to being confirmed as Fed chair, Warsh was a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

He is widely viewed as a "hawk" on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.

At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.

Warsh said in mid-2025 that "the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential," adding "that doesn't mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does."

Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.

Read more: The New Fed Chair Was Announced: What You Need to Know

- David Dittman

Who gets to vote at the June Fed meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.

The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.

Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.

The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson

Fed Governor Michael Barr

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Fed Governor Jerome Powell

Fed Governor Christopher Waller

New York Fed President John Williams

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson

In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.

- Karee Venema

What Kiplinger economist David Payne is expecting at this week's Fed meeting

Wednesday will be Kevin Warsh's first monetary policy meeting since taking over the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve from Jerome Powell in May. It is not likely that there will be any changes in rates.

The decline in crude oil prices following the agreement to stop the U.S.-Iran war is welcome news for Warsh and the Fed, but it will not be enough for the new chair to persuade his fellow committee members to cut. For the moment, at least, the agreement likely prevents any move to fight inflation by increasing short-term interest rates.

- David Payne

May CPI came in hot as energy prices kept climbing

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last Wednesday and it confirmed that energy prices continue to boost inflation.

According to the BLS, headline inflation was up 0.5% from April to May and 4.2% higher than the year prior. The monthly increase was slower than the 0.6% rise seen in April.

The annual rise signaled an uptick from the 3.8% increase from the month prior and was the highest yearly pace since April 2023. Both figures matched economists' estimates.

"The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase," wrote the BLS in its report.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% month over month, a downshift from April's 0.4% increase and slower than economists expected. Year over year, core inflation was 2.9% higher, slightly faster than the 2.8% increase from the year prior and in line with estimates.

Prices for airfare, medical care and recreation were all higher in May, while costs for new cars, household furnishings and car insurance were lower.

Ahead of the June Fed meeting, many are wondering if higher inflation readings mean the central bank's next move will be a rate hike.

But Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, doesn't see that happening any time soon. "It's clear that rate cuts are off the table, and while there is chatter about a potential rate hike, we believe it's unlikely that we'll see a rate hike before the midterm elections, and any such hike is likely a year away," he says.

Read more: May CPI Shows Inflation Rose at Its Fastest Pace in 3 Years

- Karee Venema

Iran peace deal has big implications for the Fed

Stocks are starting Fed week on a positive note thanks to news that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a potential peace deal.

Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, says the deal has "major implications" for global central banks, given that higher oil prices have accelerated inflationary pressures — and have led many to believe the next moves from policymakers will be tightening rather than easing.

Indeed, CME FedWatch shows that futures traders aren't pricing in any rate cuts this year. At the start of 2026, many folks were anticipating at least two quarter-point rate cuts by December.

And while the recent decline in oil prices "does not eliminate inflation risks altogether," says Hathorn, "it does reduce some of the urgency surrounding them."

And while the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance this time around, the peace deal may give policymakers "greater flexibility to maintain a neutral stance rather than immediately leaning toward further tightening," she adds.

Hathorn believes Fed Chair Warsh's messaging "could prove critical," as markets look "for clarity on whether the Fed views current inflation pressures as temporary and manageable, or whether policymakers still see a need for tighter policy later in the year."

- Karee Venema

The June Fed meeting is historic, but will not bring fireworks, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

Kevin Warsh's first meeting as head of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be "notable from a historic perspective," says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel, considering he is just the 17th person to serve as Fed chair since the Federal Reserve was created in 1914.

But, Zureick adds, "the meeting itself is unlikely to produce substantive policy changes. The FOMC is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, extending the 'wait and see' approach it adopted earlier this year."

The economist will be watching to see if the Fed uses "this meeting to move away from its prior bias toward future rate cuts, reflecting a shift in its assessment of both inflation and the labor market."

While Zureick notes that higher energy prices have increased upward pressure on inflation, "labor market data has improved somewhat, reducing the urgency for additional policy easing." As such, the FOMC could decide that its most prudent course of action is to leave rates unchanged.

"Investors should pay close attention to any changes in the official FOMC statement, particularly language around 'the extent and timing of additional adjustments' to the federal funds rate," he adds.

The economist also points to the importance of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), particularly the dot plot. "When it was last revised in March, the median FOMC forecast still pointed to two additional rate cuts in 2026 — a path that may no longer reflect the Committee's current thinking," Zureick explains. "Instead, investors will need to look to the 2027 median projection for clues about the Fed's desired path for rates beyond this year."

Fed Chair Warsh is likely to encounter a wide range of questions, he says. "While reporters will likely press for clues about how policy may evolve under his leadership, Warsh is unlikely to reveal much. Instead, he will probably emphasize the Fed’s data-dependent approach and the need to preserve flexibility amid an uncertain inflation and growth outlook."

- Karee Venema

What Thrivent's CFO and CIO is watching for in Chair Warsh's first press conference

David Royal, chief financial officer and chief investment officer of Thrivent says Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair will give us insight into several things, including his policy framework and communication style. It will also show us "how he intends to lead the institution through a complex inflation, labor and rate environment."

Here are five things Royal will be watching for in the press conference:

1. How does Chair Warsh frame the inflation picture? "If he describes inflation as broadening beyond energy, that would read as hawkish. Core goods inflation has been flat for the last two months. If he simply notes that fact, it would be dovish, but if he attributes it to the tariff rollback (and especially if he observes that the rollback is a one-time effect), that would be hawkish as it would imply core inflation may rise due to underlying economic factors in coming months."

2. What does he say about forward guidance and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP or "dot plot")? "Warsh has long been skeptical of forward guidance. The key question is whether he simply wants less of it or whether he is signaling a broader rethink of how the Fed communicates policy. I'll also be watching whether he sounds dismissive of the SEP and dot plot, even if he stops short of criticizing them directly. The dot plot still matters, especially if it points to a more neutral or even hawkish stance than markets currently expect."

3. What is Chair Warsh's communication style? "If Warsh is more terse than recent Fed chairs, markets will need to decide whether that reads as discipline or evasiveness. That distinction could matter for term premium and market confidence. His tone may also offer an early signal of whether he intends to lead as a consensus builder or as a reformer."

4. What does he say about Fed independence? "He is almost certain to get a question on Fed independence, and the strength of his response will matter. I'll be listening for whether he offers a routine defense of independence or signals a deeper personal commitment to it. Any sign of a weaker commitment could raise concerns in the Treasury market."

5. What does Chair Warsh say about the Fed's balance sheet? "Warsh has been outspoken about shrinking the balance sheet, so I'll be watching how directly he addresses quantitative tightening in his opening comments and Q&A. The bigger question is whether he sees balance sheet policy and interest-rate policy as separate tools or as moves that should be coordinated."

- Karee Venema

Stocks close higher ahead of the June Fed meeting

Stocks jumped out of the gate and stayed higher through the close as market participants cheered news of potential peace in the Middle East. Oil prices, meanwhile, cratered as reports of a deal to end the months-long war circulated, though the Federal Reserve is still likely to stay on hold at this week's meeting.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbling 4.9% to $80.75 per barrel — their lowest settlement since early March.

As for stocks, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.9% at 51,671 — a new record closing high — the broader S&P 500 was 1.7% higher at 7,554, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had jumped 3.1% to 26,683.

Read more: Dow Hits New High on Iran Deal: Stock Market Today

Futures show mixed open on first day of Fed's Warsh era

Equity index futures pointed to a mixed open on Tuesday, the first day of the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Stocks rallied on Monday after the U.S. and Iran appeared to reach an agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz by Friday.

The 2-year Treasury yield, a proxy for short-term Fed policy on interest rates, ticked up to 4.066% from 4.064% on Monday. The 2-year yield was 3.990% on May 13, the day Warsh was confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down another 4% to around $76 per barrel early Tuesday after sliding almost 5% on Monday.

WTI rose from $67.02 on February 27, the day before hostilities in the Middle East began, to an intraday wartime peak of $119.48 on March 9.

Easing pressure from an energy shock will make Warsh's job a lot easier, with May data showing consumer inflation at a three-year high and producer prices at nearly four-year highs.

– David Dittman

Original 'Fed Whisperer' still doing his thing

Jon Hilsenrath was the first "Fed whisperer," a title he earned during a 26-year career at The Wall Street Journal covering the central bank and other economic and financial beats.

Hilsenrath is now a visiting scholar at Duke University, where he's still doing his Fed thing by collaborating with the economics department on a survey of former officials and staffers ahead of each FOMC meeting.

The one conducted between June 5 and June 12 included 34 former officials and staff members: six former board governors, six former regional bank presidents, and 22 former staff members from the board and regional banks.

Half of them think new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may have to raise interest rates before the end of 2026.

Indeed, 17 of 32 former officials and staff who offered projections said an increase would likely be appropriate in 2026. Fourteen said no increase would be appropriate, and one person said the central bank should cut the federal funds rate.

"The survey panel foresaw little progress reducing inflation in the months ahead," the report said (pdf). "Already-elevated inflation was compounded by higher energy prices associated with conflict in the Persian Gulf."

The median estimate for year-end inflation based on forecasts provided by Hilsenrath's panel of former Fed officials for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) was 3.5%.

The Fed's policy target is 2%. Headline PCE printed at 3.8% last April.

– David Dittman

Papa Dow makes more new highs as Fed meeting opens

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up to a new all-time high on an intraday basis on the first day of the first FOMC meeting with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in charge.

Papa Dow was up 360 points, or 0.7%, as of late morning. The S&P 500 was down about 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite had shed 0.4%.

Both the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures and the Brent crude oil futures contracts were down about 4%, with WTI trading below $80 per barrel for the first time since March.

The 2-year Treasury yield was down to 4.060% vs 4.064% on Monday, as markets continue to price the implications of a Middle East peace deal.

As Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen notes of Brent crude, the futures curve is normalizing as longer-dated contracts move more in line with the front-end price.

“In other words," Allen explains, "investors are no longer pricing a sharp fall in oil prices over the next six months, as that was predicated on an agreement that’s now been announced.”

– David Dittman

Lawyer up: What Kevin Warsh and Jerome Powell have in common

Former Fed chair and current board member Jerome Powell was notable upon his nomination for the top job in 2017 for not being an academic economist.

In the early days of the world's most important central bank and through most of the 20th century, it was common for its leaders to have legal backgrounds before taking on the monetary policy-making role.

From the late 1970s, beginning with Paul Volcker, continuing with Alan Greenspan and including Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, it was all economists.

That is until President Donald Trump nominated Powell. Like Powell, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has a J.D., from Harvard Law School, no less, and is not an academic economist.

Whether a president widely considered the most litigious in U.S. history (in public and private) intended to put his bulldog in front of a central bank staff still heavy with PhDs is an open (and interesting) question.

For sure, though, Warsh will know how to marshal evidence and advocate for lower interest rates.

– David Dittman

'There's a lot at play' for Kevin Warsh

Kathleen Hays is a former economics reporter for Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN and is the current editor-in-chief of Central Bank Central.

Dennis Lockhart is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. His tenure at the Atlanta Fed overlapped with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's term on the Fed board from 2006 to 2011.

Today, Hays published an interview with Lockhart about Warsh and what he's looking for from Jerome Powell's successor amid his first FOMC meeting in charge of the central bank.

“Kevin, in my experience, which is four years of overlap, really was quite conservative in the sense that he feared the consequences of the balance sheet growth,” Lockhart told Hays. “He was an inflation hawk and I think was a big believer and respecter of Fed traditions and the modes of operation."

He also said Warsh will “work hard to be a consensus builder and collaborate with his colleagues.”

According to Lockhart, "The next few months will play out in a way that tells us whether inflation is going to be persistent above target or disinflation is going to resume, but it’s far from certain that prices are going to be restored to prewar levels.”

The former central banker says it's "probably far from certain that the Strait of Hormuz will operate the way it did pre-war," adding that the Iranians may continue to try to leverage their position.

Lockhart and Hays also talk about the Fed's independence. "So I think there’s a lot at play," Lockhart concludes, "much of which is not susceptible to monetary policy as a solution."

– David Dittman

A former Fed staffer talks about the new Fed chair's 'good family fight'

Claudia Sahm is a former Fed staffer who writes about central banking and other things that matter to the economy, working people and investors at Stay-At-Home-Macro.

(That's S-A-H-M, as in "Sahm," and speaking as a wordsmith who loves acronyms, that's clever…)

Today, of course, Sahm is previewing the in-progress Fed meeting ahead of tomorrow's anticlimactic decision on interest rates.

"The Fed faces a genuine challenge," she writes. "Inflation is rising, driven largely by an energy supply shock — and the textbook response to a supply shock is to look through it, since rate hikes can't fix a shortage and only squeeze families already paying more."

At the same time, inflation has been running above the Fed's 2% target for five years. As Sahm explains, more and more Fed officials think a half-decade of hot inflation "changes the calculus," and it amounts to "a real disagreement, not noise."

Sahm says the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot-plot – "the one public window into the debate" – may show a hawkish shift, and she cites a survey of former Fed officials and staff we talked about earlier today indicating that kind of movement.

"The risk is that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a longtime skeptic of the Fed's forecasts, might decline to submit his own dots or play down the SEP," Sahm says. "That would draw less attention to the dots — but it would also mask the range of views just as that range becomes the story."

As Sahm concludes, "Warsh says he wants a 'good family fight' on the committee. The dot plot is how the rest of us see it. Improve it, don't bury it."

– David Dittman

Fed Zeppelin: when whisperers aren't loud enough

Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, who has inherited Jon Hilsenrath's title as "Fed whisperer," writes about new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and how he might change the way the central bank communicates with the public in his preview of this week's FOMC meeting.

"For more than a decade," Timiraos notes, "Warsh has argued that the Fed should say less. How much a central bank reveals about its thinking shapes mortgage rates, markets and the cost of borrowing for everyone."

Naturally, he concludes, "Wall Street will parse Wednesday's meeting, his first as Fed chairman, for any sign of where he'll take it." Indeed, that Warsh is holding a press conference tomorrow is significant.

Perhaps, though, instead of a bunch of "Fed whisperers" to describe things like this potential communication breakdown, the thing we really need right now is the "hammer of the gods."

Here are five Led Zeppelin songs that explain the biggest central bank in the world right now.

– David Dittman

Stocks are mixed on the first day of the June Fed meeting

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high, rising above 52,000 for the first time, but tech stocks slumped and weighed on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite during the first day of the first FOMC meeting with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in charge of the world's most important central bank.

The 2-year Treasury yield ticked down to 4.056% from 4.064% on Monday, and the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 4%, finishing below $80 per barrel for the first time since March 4.

"Tomorrow," writes Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "we get to hear Kevin Warsh's first comments as the new head of the Federal Reserve, when the FOMC releases its rate decision. If he's perceived as more dovish than expected, it should be bullish for stocks. If he's hawkish, it could bring volatility."

As Navellier notes and CME FedWatch confirms, there's almost zero chance the Fed cuts interest rates tomorrow. "Perhaps more interesting," he adds, "will be what he wants to do with the Fed's balance sheet."

Read more: Dow Notches New High as Tech Stocks Drop: Stock Market Today

Stock futures are mixed ahead of today's Fed announcement

Stock futures are signaling a mixed open ahead of this afternoon's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.

At last check, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are marginally lower, while premarket gains in several tech stocks have futures on the S&P 500 trading up 0.2% and futures on the Nasdaq-100 trading 0.6% higher.

What time will the Fed statement be released and what changes are expected?

The Federal Open Market Committee will release its updated policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time today, June 17.

"Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace," the FOMC wrote in its April policy statement. "Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices."

The committee went on to say that "developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook."

As such, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

This time around, Deutsche Bank economists expect the June FOMC statement to reflect improvements in the labor market and remove any bias toward easing, reflecting Chair Warsh's disapproval of forward guidance.

"While it is possible that Warsh could look to scrap the guidance language entirely, given his prior criticisms of the Fed's over-reliance on forward guidance, we expect change to come more incrementally, given that a rising chorus of the Committee wishes to signal the potential for monetary tightening amidst ongoing elevated inflation concerns," they note.

They anticipate the removal of the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" language, with this more neutral revision: "In considering any adjustments to the level of the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

- Karee Venema

May retail sales came in higher than expected

Retail sales came in higher than expected in May. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales rose 0.9% month over month, much higher than economists' estimate for a 0.6% increase.

It was also an improvement over April's retail sales, which were downwardly revised to +0.4% from the initial reading of +0.5%.

"Nominal retail sales rose again in May despite the weakness in consumer sentiment and higher energy prices," says Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. "The resiliency is a function of a labor market that remains structurally tight, equity markets that continue to hit new highs (generating a wealth effect), a very strong tax refund season, and household cash levels as a share of total assets that are exceptionally high."

But de Chazal adds that consumers view the war in Iran as temporary, which has not impacted demand. "However, should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed much longer, the current memorandum of understanding not be agreed upon, or indeed the conflict escalate into other major global choke points, prices would rise further and more tangible demand destruction would be likely."

- Karee Venema

How well do you know the Fed?

Fed meetings have become key events as central bank officials try to balance high inflation and labor market hiccups against the White House's desire for lower interest rates.

But how well do you know the Fed?

With the next Fed meeting on deck, we decided to test your basic knowledge of the Federal Reserve with a quick quiz.

Master Your Fed Knowledge: Take Our Quick Federal Reserve Quiz

What time does Kevin Warsh speak today?

Fed Chair Warsh will host a press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time today, June 17.

How Warsh frames answers to key market questions surrounding inflation, AI and the future path of interest rates during his press conference is more important than today's policy statement, says Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist, Americas at BlackRock.

"Investors will be listening closely for his views on whether policymakers should look through tariff and energy-related inflation, how AI may affect inflation and whether he believes the neutral rate has moved higher," she explains.

Chaudhuri also says that the market will be watching for any comments on the Federal Reserve's future path for projections and guidance. "Warsh has previously been critical of the Summary of Economic Projections, making any comments on the future of the dot plot particularly noteworthy," she says. "In the past, he shared that he believed dot plots provide a false sense of precision, cause the bank to focus more on forecasts than reaction, and that too much forward guidance can become a policy tool of itself."

- Karee Venema

Stocks edge higher, bond yields barely budge ahead of Fed statement

Stocks are trading cautiously higher ahead of the June Fed statement, due out at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in the lead, up 0.4% on strength in financial giant Goldman Sachs (GS, +2.6%) and industrial stock Caterpillar (CAT, +2.5%). The broader S&P 500 is 0.03% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has edged up 0.08%.

Bond yields have failed to make any major moves, as well. The yield on the 2-year Treasury is up 2.1 basis points at 4.068%, while the 10-year Treasury yield flat at 4.428%.

Any post-Fed market volatility is a "buying opportunity," says Main Street Research's CIO

The June Fed meeting is the most important in recent memory, says James Demmert, chief investment officer, Main Street Research. "Investors will now have to get used to the new Fed Chair's communication style, which is an adjustment period for markets."

Demmert doesn't expect the FOMC to make any changes to the federal funds rate this time around, but considering lower oil prices could spur economic activity, he thinks Chair Warsh could "mention accelerating economic growth and the potential for higher rates going forward, even with the political pressure he is facing to cut rates."

The CIO adds that any Fed-induced market volatility represents "a buying opportunity" for investors as he believes "market fundamentals remain in place."

- Karee Venema

The Fed decision is in

The Fed decision is in. As expected, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Unlike recent decisions, the vote was unanimous.

- David Payne

The June FOMC statement is much more terse than usual

The June FOMC statement looks very different than the ones we've become accustomed to. Given how barebones it is, there's really not much we can read into it — though this should be expected, given that Warsh is reported to be in favor of less communication.

The FOMC did release the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot, despite some indication that Warsh wants to get rid of it. Both show an expected gradual decline in the fed funds rate over the next several years.

The press conference should be interesting.

- David Payne

Where can I watch Fed Chair Warsh's press conference?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will begin at 2:30 pm Eastern Standard Time this afternoon.

The presser can be viewed on the Federal Reserve's website or on the Fed's YouTube channel.

The path to avoid rate hikes is narrow, says Kay Haigh of Goldman Sachs

"Today's meeting confirms that the Fed's recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices," says Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Haigh adds that despite the recent drop in oil prices, the dot plot shows that half of the committee members expect rate hikes as soon as this year.

This, he notes, reflects strong labor market and inflation data. "Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data," Haigh concludes.

- Karee Venema

Stocks turn lower after Fed announcement

The main equity indexes have turned lower after the release of the Fed statement. At last check, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.09% at 51,954, the S&P 500 was off 0.4% at 7,480, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.6% lower at 26,230.

Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was up 10.8 basis points to 4.155% and the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.1 basis points higher at 4.469%.

Warsh promises price stability

"This committee will deliver price stability," Kevin Warsh emphatically announced in the opening statement of his first press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve.

He noted that inflation has been running well above the Fed's 2% goal for five years now, something that American consumers know well.

Whether Warsh can bring inflation back to a tolerably low level, and what it would take to do that, are the real questions.

- Jim Patterson

Warsh announces new Fed task forces

Warsh started his first press conference with a sweeping announcement of new task forces he has formed at the Fed to reconsider a range of the central bank's operations.

One will reexamine how much the Fed communicates about its future monetary policy decisions, suggesting that the Warsh Fed may be less forthcoming about signaling potential changes to interest rates and other monetary policy decisions.

Markets may have to get used to receiving less guidance from Warsh than they got from his predecessor.

- Jim Patterson

Warsh says the Fed is no longer promising forward guidance

"Inflation is a choice" for central bankers, Warsh said: A mantra he has harped on before. In other words, he believes that monetary policy is the main driver for inflation, not economic events. And by that logic, he indicated, the Fed can and will get inflation under control.

He declined to say how specifically it will do that, and whether he would contemplate raising interest rates soon, saying that under him, the Fed is dropping "forward guidance" about future rate decisions.

He noted that some of his colleagues on the FOMC have penciled in interest rate increases for later this year, but said those pencils come with erasers. In other words, nothing has been decided about rates later this year.

- David Payne

Warsh talks future press conferences

When asked whether he will continue with post-meeting press conferences, Chair Warsh said that pressers can be a useful way to communicate.

Citing his mentor George Schultz, Warsh said that when you have a press conference, you better have something important to say. Walsh noted that today he had something to say, about price stability and some changes that he's making to the Federal Reserve.

While Warsh did not commit to specific future press conferences, he did say that more changes are to come and those changes will be worthy of a press conference.

- Karee Venema

Warsh says the Fed will rely on different data sources, but did not give specifics

Warsh doesn't want markets to react too closely to economic data just because they assume those data releases will influence the Fed in one way or another. And he seems frustrated that the Fed relies heavily on government statistics that take time to collect and go through multiple revisions.

He intimated that under him, the Fed will be studying other data sources, and methods for analyzing economic data, to get a better real-time read on how the economy is doing. But he did not go into any details about what those new sources or methods could be, leaving markets to guess for now on what Chair Warsh will be looking at as he makes monetary decisions.

- Jim Patterson

Warsh is not concerned about the market's reaction to the Fed's limiting of communication

"This is a lot of change for financial markets to digest," Warsh said, referring to his plan to limit how much the Fed will be communicating about its future monetary moves. But he also indicated he's not concerned about how markets react to that change.

The main purpose of his inaugural press conference seems to be to drive home the point that he won't be foreshadowing any changes in Fed policy to the media, and that investors will have to get by without such hints.

"I don't have anything for you" was a recurring theme of his answers to questions from the assembled financial media. His message seems to be "Trust us to bring inflation down, but don't expect us to explain how we'll do that before we're ready to do it."

- Jim Patterson

Interest rates are having an "uneven" impact on the economy, says Warsh

A glimmer of a hint on how Warsh sees present interest rates: He said that they seem "restrictive" when it comes to the housing market, but not necessarily in other parts of the economy.

He referred to the present level of rates as "uneven" in terms of how rates are impacting the economy. That doesn't suggest he clearly favors either a rate hike or cut in the future. But considering that he was initially seen as a Fed chair who favored lower rates, the description of today's rates as having an "uneven" impact at least suggests he's not in a race to cut rates right now.

He did not indicate that today's rate level is holding the economy back and needs to be lowered.

- Jim Patterson

Fed may be waiting to see the impact the Iran deal has on oil prices

The dot plot shows that half of the committee members wanted to leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, while the other half thought rates would need to rise a little. Yet Warsh notes that no one in the meeting brought up increasing the federal funds rate this time around.

This may be because the FOMC wants to see what the impact of the Iran deal will be on oil prices.

- David Payne

"Trends matter more than data points," says Warsh

"Trends matter more than data points," Warsh said in wrapping up his remarks. Commenting on the recent trends in the labor market, he indicated optimism, including on the potential for artificial intelligence to boost worker productivity.

That seems to be an important part of his overall approach to monetary policy: The idea that new technology like AI can help lower inflation by enabling workers to do more, thus easing cost pressures for businesses and enabling them to curb price increases. But, in keeping with the theme of his earlier remarks, Warsh did not go into specifics about what that trend could mean for Fed interest rate decisions.

Investors should get used to hearing less from the new Fed chair, rather than more.

- Jim Patterson

Beat inflation: the savings accounts that actually work

Inflation recently hit 4.20%, and most savings accounts aren't keeping up. It means if you have a savings account earning less than inflation, you're losing money — and as the Fed didn't raise rates today, you're not likely to see an increase in your current account.

We're tracking the high-yield savings accounts and CDs that are actually beating the curve, see them here: Inflation Is at 4.2%: These Savings Accounts Are Outpacing It

Stocks close lower after June Fed meeting

Stocks were choppy in the lead-up to Wednesday afternoon's shortened policy statement from the Federal Reserve, but made a decisive turn lower after it was released.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined by 1% to 51,493, despite reaching another new all-time high on an intraday basis. The broad-based S&P 500 was down 1.2% at 7,420, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 1.3% at 26,021.

Market-based interest rates were up across the maturity spectrum, with the 2-year Treasury yield, widely watched as a gauge of short-term policy, rising to 4.216% from 4.047% on Tuesday.

CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of rate cuts and rate hikes based on 30-day fed funds futures prices, indicates the Warsh Fed could raise interest rates as soon as October.

Read more: Dow Falls 507 Points as Fed Chair Warsh Speaks of Price Stability: Stock Market Today

The bar for rate cuts is higher, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist

While the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged came as little surprise to Wall Street, the statement and updated projections indicate a shift in the central bank's underlying policy framework, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel.

"Notably, the post-meeting statement was streamlined and sharpened in tone, emphasizing that inflation 'remains elevated' and explicitly highlighting the role of recent supply shocks — particularly in energy — in driving price pressures," he adds.

The FOMC statement also reinforced the diminishing urgency in lowering interest rates due to "solid" economic activity and a stable labor market. "Taken together, these adjustments mark a clear move away from the easing bias that defined earlier communication this year," Zureick explains.

 The updated Summary of Economic Projections, which shows a split between holding rates steady and raising rates this year, underscores this shift, the economist says. "In addition, the Fed revised its macroeconomic assumptions, suggesting an environment with higher expected inflation, somewhat slower growth, and a still-resilient labor market."

With Chair Warsh reluctant to offer forward guidance, Zureick says the overall message from the June Fed meeting is that "the bar for rate cuts has moved higher, and investors will need to look further out on the horizon — particularly to 2027 and beyond — for clarity on the eventual path of policy normalization."

- Karee Venema

The main equity indexes were mixed this morning, ahead of the debut of Elon Musk's SpaceX as a publicly traded company. The size and the scope of it were not sufficient to cover the market's questions about the war in the Middle East, inflation and simpler things such as seasonality. Indeed, the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in stock market history happened on a Friday weeks into Wall Street's traditional summer trading period.

SpaceX (SPCX) started trading at about 11:45 am Eastern Standard Time and immediately popped 11.1% from its $135 offering price to $150. SPCX closed up 19.2% at $160.95, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. We're following everything about the explosive debut on our live SpaceX IPO blog.

Meanwhile, all three main indexes rallied on firmer word of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz. According to Bloomberg, an interim deal is likely to be reached and could be signed as soon as next week at the Group of Seven meeting in France.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract declined by nearly 4% to $84.35 and ended the week down 6.8%. WTI has risen by 25.9% since the war in the Middle East began on February 28.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% at 51,202. Papa Dow's rally was enough to push into the green for the week with a gain of 0.7%.

The S&P 500 was higher by 0.5% at 7,431 on Friday, and the broad-based index ended the five days with a gain of 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.3% on Friday and was up 0.7% for the week at 25,888.

Sentiment is up on SpaceX Day

Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show its Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in June from 44.8 in May and surpassed a consensus estimate of 47.8.

"Even with June's early gains, however, views of the economy are still relatively dour," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said. "They feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run."

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LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach sees potential relief on the horizon: "We expect inflation pressures to ease after the Iran conflict simmers and the subsequent improvement in supply chains."

At the same time, as far as interest rates are concerned, hotter-than-expected May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data "suggest the Fed will remain on hold for the next few meetings and will remove any accommodative bias at next week’s meeting."

The wild card remains the war in the Middle East, which, if it persists, would generate "stronger inflation headwinds will put a damper on the growth trajectory," according to Roach.

Adobe gets bricked

Adobe (ADBE, -6.8%) sat out the rally after management of the tech stock reported expectations-beating top- and bottom-line results for its second quarter and raised full-year guidance.

"Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion in Q2," CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement, "reflecting strong AI-driven demand across our customer groups."

The software maker now expects to report earnings of $24.35 to $24.45 per share on revenue of $26.5 billion to $26.6 billion vs a Wall Street forecast for EPS of $23.54 on revenue of $26.1 billion.

Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane cut his rating on ADBE from Buy to Hold after the release, noting that management "meaningfully lowered" its fiscal second-half organic annual recurring revenue estimate.

"The company also announced the departure of CFO Dan Durn," Lane writes, "adding more leadership uncertainty into the mix, with CEO Shantanu Narayen expected to step down from his role this year."

CFRA slaps a 'sell' on SPCX

A little more than an hour after SPCX started trading, CFRA analyst Keith Snyder slapped what FactSet classified as a "Sell" rating on the stock, specifying a $115 12-month target price. That's 28.5% below its closing price on Friday.

"We have a negative outlook given dependence on unproven outcomes including Starship commercialization, orbital AI compute, and xAI monetization," Snyder writes in a research note.

According to Snyder, Starlink, the strongest segment, faces multiple risks, including capacity expansion needs, regulatory approvals and competition from terrestrial broadband and low-Earth orbit systems.

"We believe the market assigns too much value to future optionality and insufficient discount to execution risk," the analyst concludes.

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To help you understand what is going on in the global economy and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here's the latest...

After a first half defined by the Iran war and its impact on oil, commodity prices and inflation, the rest of 2026 will test the global economy, even as AI-driven optimism continues to lift growth. With the Persian Gulf’s energy exports still hobbled, the second half will be far from dull for global markets.

The pace of global growth will slow down, cooling to roughly 2.8% in 2026. Volatility will continue as inflation pressures spread from energy outward into metals, fertilizers, and industrial inputs, pushing the global inflation rate up to about 4.5%. Here is what to expect in key countries.

The U.S. economy will remain resilient, insulated from the worst of the oil price shock by its domestic oil and gas production. Continued AI, national defense, and energy spending will serve to prop up business investment, keeping GDP growth around 2.1%.
But consumers are feeling the strain, as the personal savings rate continues to dwindle, inflation persists and long-term unemployment rises. A spending pullback seems inevitable at some point.

Europe’s macroeconomic outlook is shifting toward stagflation. Expect eurozone growth of just 0.8%, as the energy shock hits an economy lacking fiscal buffers. Germany will struggle to grow more than 0.7% as surging energy costs weigh heavily on its industrial sector.

The U.K. economy is shifting to a lower gear, with growth slowing to 0.9% as inflation squeezes incomes.

India will be a star performer in Asia, though growth will moderate to 6.5%.

China will continue to decelerate, slowing to 4.5% as the property sector remains a drag, though surging green-tech and AI-related exports offer a bright spot.

Japan faces a delicate balancing act, as it battles a weak yen and inflation imported from abroad while supporting a fragile economy expected to grow just 0.4%.

Growth in Latin America will face headwinds from weaker Chinese demand for the region’s commodity exports, tighter U.S. lending terms and rising fuel costs.

Interest rates won’t likely fall as much as investors were hoping this year. Central banks are caught between rising inflation rates and a softening labor market. The Federal Reserve is on hold for now, with rate cut expectations having evaporated, while the European Central Bank is moving toward an isolated June rate hike.

Finally, keep an eye on U.S. private credit lenders. Stresses are emerging, particularly in software loans. A systemic financial crisis is unlikely, since lenders in the industry aren’t as critical to the financial system as the biggest banks were during the mortgage crisis of 2008. For private credit, the losses will be a slow burn for investors. That could dampen the ebullient mood on Wall Street later this year.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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The main equity indexes gapped up on Thursday despite another hotter-than-forecast inflation report, this time on the producer side, as President Donald Trump continued to share updates on negotiations with Iran via social media. Stocks held their gains through the trading session and surged late, with investors, traders and speculators apparently poised for whatever comes next in the Middle East, be it more war or real peace.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.9% at 50,848, the broad-based S&P 500 was higher by 1.8% at 7,394, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 2.5% at 25,809.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract declined from an intraday high of $93.64 per barrel and closed down more than 4% at $86.42 after the president walked back a threat to strike Iran "VERY HARD" on Thursday night and take "total control" of its oil and gas assets.

"Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved," Trump posted on Truth Social, "I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening."

PPI is hot, too

Before the opening bell, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated in May to its fastest annual pace, 6.5%, since November 2022, when the headline print was 7.4%.

The data on producer prices follows Wednesday's hotter-than-expected May Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. Wholesale inflation was 1.1% in May, consistent with the revised estimate for April.

According to the BLS, "Nearly 80 percent of the May advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.8-percent increase in the index for final demand goods."

That category includes energy costs, which increased by 10.7% in May, topping the previous record for a monthly gain of 10.4%, set in March.

BofA double upgrades INTC

Intel (INTC, +9.3%) was among the top-performing S&P 500 stocks on Thursday after BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya upgraded the chipmaker from Underperform (Sell) to Buy and raised his 12-month target price from $96 to $135.

Arya explains bypassing a Hold rating by noting "higher confidence in INTC's opportunity to help address industry constraints in leading edge wafers/packaging."

The analyst also says Intel is well positioned to capture a "much larger" segment of the agentic central processing unit market, with server CPU sales tracking toward 25% of a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately $170 billion by 2030.

Intel's share of that TAM — about $40 billion — should support earnings per share of $6 by 2030, up from an older estimate of $3 to $4 and vs a profit of 42 cents in 2025 and a loss of 13 cents in 2024.

Wall Street questions Oracle's guidance

Oracle (ORCL, -8.6%) saw steep downside on Thursday after management reported expectations-beating top- and bottom-line results for its fiscal fourth quarter, but guided to higher capex and softer revenue than Wall Street anticipated. Multiple analysts suggest the sell-off is a buying opportunity in one of the artificial intelligence stocks that's booming right now.

Indeed, ORCL was down double-digits in aftermarket trading immediately following its post-closing-bell report on Wednesday "for no apparently good reason," according to Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci.

"We view these results as validation of Oracle as our Best Idea based on superior technology enabling it to provide better performance at a lower price in a burgeoning hyper growth market," the analyst writes, "which should eventually turn into a cash flow waterfall." DiFucci has a Buy rating and a $400 12-month target price on ORCL stock.

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated his Buy rating and raised his 12-month target price on ORCL from $200 to $225. "Oracle continues to deliver infrastructure at an accelerating pace," Luria observes, "with management highlighting expectations for F1Q27 delivery approaching 1 gigawatt, nearly the same capacity delivered in the prior four quarters combined."

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At the same time, while reiterating his Outperform (Buy) rating and lowering his 12-month target price from $275 to $240, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expressed some caution because of Oracle's growing debt, despite strong growth in remaining performance obligations (RPO).

As Ives explains, "Adding more debt to the capital structure is not a move the Street wants to see and continues to create this 'tug of war' on the name between RPO and the necessary capital raises/AI datacenter buildout in the near-term."

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A Republican lawmaker is proposing a major tax break for some homeowners, arguing that outdated tax rules are preventing many older adults from selling homes they've owned for decades.

The "Nest Egg Protection Act" would temporarily increase the federal capital gains tax exclusion to $1 million for qualifying homeowners age 65 and older who sell their primary residence.

Under current law, homeowners can exclude up to $250,000 in gains from the sale of a primary residence, while married couples filing jointly can exclude up to $500,000.

But… those thresholds were established in 1997 and haven't been indexed for inflation, despite increases in home values over the past three decades.

The bill's sponsor, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of New York, says many older Americans are effectively trapped in homes that no longer meet their needs because selling could trigger a significant tax bill.

"By removing this tax barrier that discourages seniors from selling when they want to, we can protect their nest egg while making the American Dream of homeownership more attainable for younger families and first-time homebuyers," Malliotakis said in a release announcing the legislation.

Curious? Here's more of what you need to know.

New $1 million home sale tax break for seniors?

According to Malliotakis, the proposal is intended to help seniors preserve the equity they have accumulated over decades while also encouraging downsizing that could free up housing inventory for younger buyers.

• To qualify under the proposal, those over age 65 would need to have owned their home for at least 25 years.
• If approved and enacted, the enhanced exclusion would apply from tax years 2027 to 2030.

The bill comes as lawmakers from both parties have increasingly focused on capital gains taxes as a factor contributing to housing market gridlock. (You may recall proposals last year to eliminate capital gains taxes on home sales.)

Housing advocates and economists often refer to the issue as a "lock-in effect," where homeowners delay selling, in part because of the tax consequences associated with large gains.

• Older adults and long-term homeowners often choose not to sell their homes because they represent a source of financial stability.
• Particularly for those who have paid off their mortgages, selling often means facing higher costs elsewhere due to today's elevated mortgage rates.
• Additionally, in many cases, their homes hold substantial equity, which they may want to preserve as an emergency resource, through reverse mortgages, or to pass on to loved ones.

The result can be fewer homes available for sale, particularly in high-cost markets.

Who benefits from a higher capital gains exclusion?

As Kiplinger has reported, data show that in recent years, approximately 8% of home sales resulted in gains that exceeded the home exclusion threshold. That's more than double the percentage five years ago, according to a report from CoreLogic, a company that provides consumer information and analytics.

Supporters say that increasing the exclusion amounts would make it easier for retirees to relocate closer to family members, move into smaller homes, or transition into assisted-living communities without sacrificing a portion of their nest egg to taxes.

Another argument is that additional housing supply could help ease affordability pressures in some markets.

Critics, however, question whether such a measure would disproportionately benefit homeowners in higher-value markets who have generally seen the largest appreciation gains.

• According to research from the Yale Budget Lab, only about 10 to 15 percent of homeowners have capital gains on their primary residences that exceed the current federal tax exclusion limits.
• These are typically wealthier and older folks, with homes averaging $1.4 million and capital gains above the exemption at around $430,000.

Some tax policy analysts have also warned that expanding (or eliminating) capital gains exclusions could reduce federal revenue.

Capital gains exclusion on primary residences: Bottom line

The legislation has been referred to the House Ways and Means Committee and will likely face a lengthy path through Congress. But if eventually approved, it would represent one of the most significant targeted tax benefits for homeowners in recent years.

For now? The capital gains tax break for homeowners remains at $250K for singles and $500K for those married filing jointly.

To be eligible for the exclusion, you must have owned and used the home as your primary residence for at least two of the five years leading up to the date of the sale.

The IRS allows you to have only one "primary residence" at a time, and uses various factors to determine whether a home qualifies.

If you're thinking about selling your home, it may be a good idea to consult with a certified financial planner or tax professional who can consider your situation and help evaluate any capital gains tax implications.

Related

• Capital Gains Tax Exclusion for Homeowners: Who Qualifies and How It Works
• Tax Breaks for Homeowners and Homebuyers
• Retirees Face a Growing Capital Gains Tax Trap
• Capital Gains Tax Rates for 2026

The market for initial public offerings (IPOs) has struggled to see the same enthusiasm it had in 2021, when 397 offerings raised $142.4 billion in proceeds. While 2026 has gotten off to a slow start — 71 IPOs have raised $35.7 billion — a string of highly anticipated offerings is signaling renewed excitement for IPOs.

First up was the SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk's space and exploration company going public in the largest offering ever and SPCX stock now trading on the Nasdaq.

The Kiplinger team is reported on the SpaceX IPO, bringing you the news and our expert analysis of what this means for the stock market, the economy and your money. Scroll for the updates.

Should You Buy SPCX Stock? | Hot Upcoming IPOs to Watch | The Space Sector Prepares to Blast Off

What is SpaceX?

Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002, intending to lower costs for space launches and eventually build a livable colony on Mars. The company had its first successful space launch in 2008 and has since had more than 650 total launches. It also wants to build data centers in space.

"A key to its success has been a relentless focus on innovation," writes Kiplinger contributor Tom Taulli in his feature on the hottest upcoming IPOs to watch for. "The company's breakthroughs include reusable orbital rockets, which have greatly reduced the costs of space flights; vertical rocket landings; and onboard autonomous systems."

In 2015, SpaceX moved to diversify its revenue stream with Starlink, a satellite internet project that today provides coverage to roughly 10 million customers across 160 countries and territories. It also has contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense to provide satellite service through its Starshield segment to government and military organizations, including with Ukraine during its war with Russia.

Geopolitical conflicts are increasing the demand for satellites, and the conflict in the Middle East shows "how space tech is crucial for missile warning and tracking, communications, surveillance, drone and vehicle connectivity, and more," writes John Miley, senior associate editor at The Kiplinger Letter.

SpaceX also bought xAI, Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) company that owns X (formerly Twitter), in February 2026 in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $250 billion. In May, Musk announced that xAI is fully absorbed by SpaceX and will rebrand as SpaceXAI.

According to its S-1 filing, which became publicly available on May 20, SpaceX had revenue of $4.7 billion in the three months ended March 31. It also incurred a loss from operations of $1.9 billion and had adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $1.1 billion.

In 2025, the company's revenue totaled $18.67 billion, while adjusted EBITDA arrived at $6.58 billion.

SpaceX is poised to benefit from surging growth in the global space economy, which is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2034, according to Novaspace, up from $626 billion in 2025. "The U.S., led by SpaceX launching 85% of spacecraft into orbit and its Starlink Internet service, reaps most of the business," says Miley.

- Karee Venema

Space is hard

One thing I've heard over and over again from space analysts, investors and executives: "Space is hard."

The industry mantra may seem like a tired cliché or even an excuse for mishaps and bad business decisions, but it's true. The incredibly capital-intensive industry requires extraordinary feats of engineering and technology. Things can go wrong suddenly, as seen in the recent explosion during a Blue Origin engine test. Funding could dry up as timelines get extended and revenue is slow to appear.

So, when looking at the space sector, keep in mind that delays are common and outright failures happen. Or, to echo another industry cliché, it's literally rocket science.

- John Miley

How to buy the SpaceX IPO

Allocations of IPOs — especially hot ones — typically go to institutions and wealthy investors. This is a way for investment banks and brokerages to reward their best clients. This usually means that allocations for retail investors are small, say 5% to 10% of the number of shares issued.

But with the upcoming SpaceX IPO, the script will be different. The company has set the allocation up to 30%, or about $23 billion in market value.

Here are the brokerages that have been assigned to distribute the shares:

• E*Trade
• Fidelity
• Schwab
• SoFi
• Robinhood

Each firm has its own requirements. Yet there is a general process for retail investors to buy SpaceX shares.

• Investor questionnaire: You will need to fill out a form that gauges whether you meet the firm's eligibility criteria. This might include an account minimum, investor experience and risk tolerance.
• Offer: The firm will provide access to SpaceX's prospectus, which is the disclosure document for the IPO. You will then submit an indication of interest or conditional offer — that is, the number of shares you want to buy. This is for a price range. When the IPO is priced, which typically happens the night before the public offering, you will confirm the indication of interest.
• Allocation: On the day of the IPO, the firm will notify you if you received shares.

Keep in mind that you are not guaranteed to receive shares. If there is substantial demand for the offering, there may not be enough for the retail investors who submitted their indications of interest. Furthermore, each firm will have its own procedures for allocations. For example, if an investor "flipped" a prior IPO, which is when they sold shares soon after the offering, they may not get an allocation.

Then again, some firms have fairly straightforward approaches. In the case of Robinhood, it's solely based on a random allocation.

- Tom Taulli

What is the SpaceX IPO share price?

On June 3, SpaceX updated its S-1 filing to show that it priced its offering at $135 per share. Based on the roughly 555.6 million Class A shares it is selling, SpaceX will raise $75 billion, easily making it the biggest U.S. IPO ever. Chinese tech conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) currently holds that title, having raised $4.6 billion in its March 2021 offering.

Most companies offer a price range for their offering in the week or so leading up to their IPO and then set a final price the night before their stock begins trading on public markets. And SpaceX could change its price later today, but it's widely expected that the $ 135-per-share price set by CEO Elon Musk last week will be the final offer.

There are likely several reasons for this, including Musk's likely desire to take SpaceX public on his terms.

Additionally, there's massive demand for SpaceX shares. According to some estimates, the IPO is 3.3 times oversubscribed, meaning demand for SPCX stock has more than tripled the number of shares available for purchase. This suggests that shares could see a big first-day pop given the supply-demand imbalance.

- Karee Venema

The SpaceX IPO is increasing excitement around the space industry and consolidation could be coming

Similar to the AI industry, there's immense excitement about space, supercharged by SpaceX's IPO. That's led to venture capitalists betting big on a growing number of start-ups.

Generally speaking, there are too many companies, even as the overall global market is poised to grow. Look for a wave of consolidation as things shake out over the next three to five years.

SpaceX's dominance could be a driving force in this trend as it aggressively seeks to control both traditional and new markets. When SpaceX decides to get involved in a particular segment of space, its competitors get nervous.

- John Miley

SpaceX will not be fast-tracked into the S&P 500

Several exchange operators have recently changed their rules to fast-track inclusion for mega-cap IPOs, including SpaceX.

Nasdaq (NDAQ), for instance, unveiled new "fast entry" rules in early May that allows it the ability to accelerate the time frame in which large companies are added to its Nasdaq-100 Index. Previous rules required that a company wait up to a year before being included in the index, but its new requirements lower the eligibility for inclusion to just 15 days.

"That's important for a number of reasons," explains Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature on the Nasdaq's new fast entry rules. "For one thing, the delay stops hedge funds from front-running ETF investors. Under the new rules, hedge funds could buy the stock on the day of the IPO, then flip it to passive investors just 15 days later. That's basically a wealth transfer from long-term index investors to fast-money pros."

Additionally, it forces institutional investors to buy SpaceX shares once the company is included in the indices their index funds track.

But one index that SpaceX will not be allowed fast entry to is the S&P 500. "Based on S&P DJI's Index Committee review of the markets and after consideration of responses received from a wide range of market participants, no changes will be made to the eligibility criteria including financial viability screens, seasoning period, or minimum IWF, for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, or S&P SmallCap 600 as a result of the S&P Dow Jones Indices consultation on the treatment of MegaCap companies," wrote S&P Dow Jones Indices in a June 4 release. "Accordingly, there will be no changes to existing methodology for this index family."

Specifically, S&P Dow Jones Indices chose to keep several rules in place, including one that requires a company to trade on a major exchange for 12 months before being considered for inclusion in an index.

So, while SpaceX shares will likely make their way into several index funds within the next several weeks, they will not be in S&P 500 ETFs for at least the next year.

- Karee Venema

Related content: Invested in Index Funds? Here's What You Need to Know About Mega-Cap IPOs

Just how dominant is SpaceX as a company?

To underscore SpaceX's dominance, consider that it had 165 launches in 2025, vastly more than any other rocket launcher, and launched 85% of global spacecraft into orbit. Its small satellite constellation, Starlink, is by far the leader in
internet speed and customers.

Unlike many space companies of years past, SpaceX is vertically integrated. It makes its own satellites, antennas, rockets, engines and all sorts of other equipment. It will build its own AI satellites, and plans to even start making its own computer chips through a partnership with Intel (INTC). Controlling all aspects of the business gives it an ongoing edge.

Perhaps an underappreciated competitive threat to SpaceX's Starlink is Amazon's (AMZN) upcoming Leo broadband service. I've tracked Amazon's planned mega-constellation over the years, and my impression is that they are very serious about winning consumers, businesses and governments.

Amazon has deep pockets and is touting how its Leo broadband service will integrate with its AWS cloud computing business. It could even offer discounted broadband for Amazon Prime subscribers.

Of course, Amazon must rely on outside rocket companies, including SpaceX, to get thousands of its satellites into orbit.

Blue Origin, which is owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, could help if it starts launching a lot more in the coming years.

But Blue Origin only had two launches last year, failed to put AST SpaceMobile's satellite into orbit in April and had a massive launchpad disaster last month.

– John Miley

What Renaissance Capital's Avery Marquez is expecting from the SpaceX IPO

Few IPOs arrive with the level of anticipation surrounding SpaceX. The company's scale, brand power, retail investor interest and unusual deal structure have already made it one of the most talked-about offerings in recent memory. But the IPO also comes with significant complexity, from expected volatility and staged lockup releases to the possibility of fast-tracked index inclusion.

For perspective on what this could mean for investors and the broader IPO market, I spoke with Avery Marquez, director of Investment Strategies at Renaissance Capital, a provider of pre-IPO research and IPO-focused ETFs.

Your thoughts on the prospects for the IPO?

It's hard to contest the general consensus that this will be a hot deal. Forgoing the typical range for a set price is a solid indicator that the deal is already covered, or at least that the company and underwriters are confident in the massive demand this is expected to generate.

Early trading will likely be very volatile, especially with such a large portion expected to go to retail. I've seen reports still indicating up to 30%. I believe the extensive lockup release schedule and "forced buying" by indexes fast-tracking inclusion will also lend to some interesting trading dynamics in the first few weeks and months.

How does this compare to other large IPOs?

I'm partial to say that there is no real comparison. You can look at something like Saudi Aramco, which is the closest example in size, but the dynamics were quite different, given the government involvement and the market's relative opacity (though worth noting that the Tadawul is more transparent now than back in 2019).

In the U.S., Facebook — now Meta Platforms (META) — may be worth comparing, given the size, governance structure and disruptive tech pitch. But the months of hype leading up to the IPO, the intricacies of SpaceX's business, the sheer number of moving parts make this a wholly unusual deal.

What about the lock-up? Implications?

SpaceX's lockup is one of the most complex I've ever seen. Given the float dynamics, it could be framed as a bid to control that potential flow, or maybe it's just a way to give early investors liquidity before the standard 180 days. I do wonder how much overlap there will be between the release schedule and the schedule of indices that will now be fast-tracking inclusion.

How important is this IPO? What might it mean for the expected IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic?

It's difficult to point to this as a bellwether for broader IPO activity, given how unusual the deal is. It will be a test of demand at scale, however, which will be particularly important for OpenAI and Anthropic, given how much capital they are expected to raise at IPO. Overall, it's going to be a historic test for the IPO market and will show us how much hype or FOMO is being baked into these high-profile names right now.

- Tom Taulli

Blue Origin explosion highlights the challenges facing a heavy launch

As SpaceX moves from the reusable Falcon 9 to the much bigger Starship, it's worth noting the unique challenges of heavy launchers. Starship is nearly 400 feet tall, while Falcon 9 is 230 feet tall. Starship can lift far heavier payloads, but that requires more powerful engines.

The challenge of a heavy launch was on display during the recent Blue Origin explosion. Its New Glenn rocket is also a heavy launcher. After the incident, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said on X, "Spaceflight is unforgiving and developing new heavy-lift launch capability is extraordinarily difficult."

In May, Elon Musk said on X that he was confident about Starship's road to commercialization: "The Starship production pipeline is full and will complete roughly 10 more ships and about half that number of boosters this year, so, if something goes wrong, it will not be a major setback, unless the launch stand is destroyed."

Back in 2020, Musk already had a clear view of Starship's importance, saying it "needs to be reusable and rapidly so, designed to be relaunched an hour after landing with zero nominal work."

- John Miley

Elon Musk reveals space's first space-based AI data center

In a video posted on X, Elon Musk talked about his vision for space-based AI data centers. The first one is called the AI1 satellite, which is expected to be 230 feet long and provide 120 kilowatts of compute power.

The AI1 satellite is based on the core foundation of the Starlink V3 system. According to Musk: "The AI satellite is much simpler than a Starlink satellite. The AI satellite is essentially a lot of solar cells, you still need some laser links, but you don't have all of the super complex antennas that you have on a Starlink satellite. The easier one to design for is the AI satellite."

The AI1 satellite is also expected to include Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs to power the AI processing.

In terms of timing, SpaceX expects to launch demonstration versions of the system in late 2027. So it could easily be a few years until the company generates any revenue from this program.

And Musk has a tendency to overpromise.

Still, space-based data centers are likely to gin up lots of excitement for investors. Land-based systems consume enormous amounts of power and are increasingly running into backlash from communities concerned about electricity demand, water usage, noise and local infrastructure strain. But in space, a data center could tap solar power directly and avoid many of these earthly constraints.

- Tom Taulli

SpaceX's big bets won't come in a hurry

The entire space ecosystem hinges on the success of Starship driving down launch costs. Some space business ideas only pencil out if launch costs are lowered to a certain point.

SpaceX has dreams of launching Starships daily or even hourly to send 1 million AI data centers into space. But how much it costs SpaceX to launch Starship and the price it charges outside customers are different. It may use most or all of Starship's capacity on its own orbital data centers.

While SpaceX has drastically lowered launch costs with its reusable Falcon 9, it's not passing all those savings over to customers, since it controls the market. Still, it does continue to have good relationships with all its customers.

Other launchers include Rocket Lab, Arianespace, United Launch Alliance and Firefly Aerospace. Rocket Lab ranked second globally in commercial launches last year with 18.

SpaceX takes the long view and dreams big. I often remind readers that SpaceX is 24 years old. Starlink was announced in 2015, and the first satellites were launched in 2019. It took a long time for SpaceX to get to this point.

When you look over SpaceX's prospectus and investor presentation, you see plans that could take years or decades to happen, including a mission to Mars. SpaceX will keep betting big on missions that will take a long time to pan out, using money from today's successes to fund tomorrow's dreams. Such a strategy carries inherent risk.

Consider that Musk has said, "The whole purpose of SpaceX is to help make life multiplanetary."

- John Miley

Hyperliquid SpaceX perpetual futures signal a big premium to IPO price

Perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, a decentralized blockchain-based trading platform, showed SpaceX shares trading around $168 at last check — a nearly 25% premium to the $135 IPO price. Still, that's down more than 6% from where the SpaceX "perp" was trading a month ago.

Hyperliquid has become a place for traders to speculate on assets such as cryptocurrency and commodities without actually owning them.

"Perpetuals never expire and users can hold positions indefinitely," explains BofA Securities analyst Julie Hoover. "Because there is no maturity, venues employ a funding-rate mechanism to keep perp prices anchored to the spot price. Volume on perps has tripled from ~$30T in 2023 to ~$93T in 2025."

According to BofA, Hyperliquid, in particular, has become popular for its pre-IPO pricing markets. "Like prediction markets gained popularity for calling the U.S. Presidential election, people argue that Hyperliquid is having their moment for accurately predicting IPOs."

If Hyperliquid's pre-IPO pricing of SpaceX perps is accurate, shares could be poised for a big jump when they first start trading.

- Karee Venema

SpaceX's unconventional IPO pricing

Elon Musk has always had a penchant for being unconventional. It has certainly been key to his many successes and his enormous wealth. So it should be no surprise that the SpaceX IPO has taken a different path from the traditional Wall Street playbook.

In a typical IPO, the company and its underwriters set an initial price range, conduct a roadshow, collect orders from investors and then determine the final price based on demand. This process is called "book building." It's a way to gauge investor demand. If the demand is strong, the company will set the deal at a higher price and vice versa.

The SpaceX IPO, on the other hand, has used a fixed price approach. According to Reuters, SpaceX set the IPO price at $135 per share, with plans to sell 555.6 million shares and raise about $75 billion. This would value the company at roughly $1.77 trillion.

The valuation was likely based on SpaceX's own internal assessment of the business and its long-term opportunities. But this was not just about traditional metrics such as revenue, earnings or comparable companies. A big part of the valuation was probably the "Musk factor." He has a long track record of making money for investors, and he has built a large base of loyal retail followers.

Still, the approach carries risks. The IPO is massive, the valuation is aggressive and the markets have been volatile lately. Even for a company like SpaceX, that makes the debut far from risk-free.

- Tom Taulli

The economics of AI data centers

Orbital data centers are unproven, though some companies have already launched prototypes. The economics of AI data centers in space is a big question mark. Can they really compete with terrestrial data centers? SpaceX certainly thinks so.

Consider the vast scale Elon Musk is talking about. Nearly 2,200 tons were launched into orbit in 2024. During a presentation this year, Musk talked about launching 10 million tons into orbit per year to put a terawatt of compute into space yearly.

Sound impossible? Musk's response: "We're confident this is feasible. No new physics or impossible things are required to get there."

Musk also envisions humanoid robots manufacturing satellites on the moon and then using electromagnetic mass driving to send them into orbit. Pursuing these ventures will be enormously expensive.

- John Miley

SpaceX confirms IPO pricing

Shortly before the close on Thursday, SpaceX set its final pricing for its initial public offering, confirming (PDF) that it will sell 5.6 million shares at $135 apiece.

The company also said that it will grant its underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to 83.3 million additional shares of its Class A common stock.

At $135 per share, SpaceX is poised to raise $75 billion in its offering, which will make it the largest IPO ever, easily exceeding the current record holder — Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) and its $21.8 billion offering in 2014. It will also give the company a $1.75 trillion valuation, making it the seventh-largest U.S. company by market cap and just ahead of Musk's other public company, Tesla (TSLA).

- Karee Venema

Stocks close higher ahead of SpaceX's market debut

Stocks closed higher Thursday after President Donald Trump walked back a threat to strike Iran "VERY HARD" on Thursday night and take "total control" of its oil and gas assets.

"Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved," Trump posted on Truth Social, "I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening."

A rebound in chip stocks also helped the broader markets bounce back from early week losses, though AI stock Oracle (ORCL) tumbled sharply after its earnings report on cost concerns.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.9% at 50,848, the broad-based S&P 500 was higher by 1.8% at 7,394, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 2.5% at 25,809.

Read more: Dow Adds 929 Points on New Signs of Peace: Stock Market Today

That's it from us today. Join us tomorrow for more updates and insight into the SpaceX IPO.

Stock futures point mostly higher on SpaceX day

The main equity indexes are trading mostly higher ahead of SpaceX's (SPCX) market debut.

At last check, futures on the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 0.3% and the broader S&P 500 are 0.1% higher. Futures on the Nasdaq-100 are down 0.3% lower, though, as Adobe (ADBE) slumps after earnings.

SpaceX gets mixed reviews from Wall Street

One reason there have been few analyst reports on the SpaceX IPO is that the company hired 23 banks for the offering. Keep in mind that they are under strict conflict-of-interest rules and must endure a 25-day quiet period.

But this week, several interesting reports from analysts surfaced that were not part of the IPO syndicate. On the bullish side, New Street Research set a $165 price target on SpaceX shares, representing a 22% premium to the IPO price. This is based on a $195 billion revenue projection for 2030.

Additionally, Oppenheimer initiated coverage on SPCX stock with a Buy rating. The price target: $190.

But Morningstar published a report that was quite bearish. Analyst Nicolas Owens puts the valuation on SpaceX at only $63 per share, or a 53% discount to the IPO price.

"Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism," says Owens. "With such a wide range of possible outcomes for the company's financial future, we created forecasts and valuations for three scenarios and probability-weighted them."

- Tom Taulli

What time will SpaceX stock start trading?

SpaceX stock will likely start trading on the Nasdaq this afternoon. New stocks typically make their market debut after lunchtime, so look for shares to open for trading around 1 pm to 2 pm Eastern Standard Time.

SpaceX IPO will boost funding and attention to space stocks, but investors must be aware of risks

Related to Elon's vision of a Mars mission and taking the long view, here's a quote I have in my notes from a keynote I attended at the 2020 satellite conference in Washington, D.C.: "I hope I'm not dead by the time people come to Mars. If we don't improve our pace of progress, I'm definitely going to be dead before we go to Mars. If it's taken us 18 years to get people to orbit, we have to improve our pace of innovation a lot."

With a huge amount of funding from the IPO, there's no doubt the intense focus on pushing the "pace of progress" will only accelerate.

As I wrote in April, SpaceX's stock listing will bring a new wave of capital to the entire sector, including from a flood of retail investors. Investors in the space sector are bullish about SpaceX's unprecedented stock listing.

The IPO is an "inflection point" for the space industry, said Michael Mealling, general partner at Starbridge Venture Capital, at SatShow. Mark Boggett, CEO of Seraphim Space, said it will pull up valuations across the entire sector.

The heightened attention means that more Wall Street analysts will start covering the sector as space companies are included in more stock funds and more space companies go public.

Investors should know that space stocks can be risky, requiring due diligence, and that the frenzy among investors could outpace the reality of individual businesses.

"I am a little concerned about public market investors looking at the space sector and not understanding the level of risk," said Mealling. "Not every company that goes public is a good company." Mealling also said that having lived through the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, "I hope we don't replicate that."

- John Miley

Neuberger Berman's Daniel Hanson on why SpaceX fits a quality equity strategy

Daniel Hanson, manager of the $2.1 billion Neuberger Berman Quality Equity Fund (NBSLX), has delivered strong results, with the fund generating an average annual return of 24.2% over the past three years. One of the more distinctive parts of the portfolio has been its pre-IPO investment in SpaceX.

I had a chance to interview Daniel and here's what he had to say:

When did you start buying SpaceX? What were the factors for making the investment? What is the current allocation?

We established the NBSLX position in SpaceX in the second half of 2023 at a company valuation of $150 billion, based on SpaceX's alignment with the Quality Equity investment philosophy. I look for 3 criteria for any Quality Equity investment, all of which SpaceX is aligned with: strong profitable growth, an entrepreneurial management team and an ownership culture. It also has a clear business purpose. The NBSLX fund's pre-IPO private allocation was approximately 7%.

What's your bullish case for the next few years? Drivers?

SpaceX comprises three distinct leadership mega-cap businesses, each of which has a promising growth outlook.

First is the launch business, where SpaceX has an unmatched global lead with the Falcon 9, and exceptional upside with the Starship program.

Second is the Starlink business, currently with 11 million subscribers and rapid growth prospects to add tens of millions of incremental subscribers.

Third is the xAI business, which has both leading proprietary initiatives, including 500 million+ monthly active users on Grok and X.com, with highly profitable third-party data center compute contracts with the likes of Anthropic and Alphabet (GOOGL). There is also its market-leading ambitions to commercialize orbital data centers in the coming years.

Besides SpaceX, does your firm have any other private investments?

Yes, Neuberger has a large private equity business.

The Neuberger Berman Quality Equity Fund was the only direct private pre-IPO owner of SpaceX at Neuberger due to the strong track record of the SpaceX team and the alignment of the business with the Quality Equity investment approach.

- Tom Taulli

How worried should investors be about the "Musk Effect"?

Perpetual futures are indicating a big jump for SpaceX stock when it begins trading this afternoon, last seen trading near $180 — 33% above the IPO price.

Part of this is likely due what many refer to the "Musk Effect. As I told CNET, Elon Musk has the tendency to stoke enthusiasm given the number of extraordinary things he's done, and we're seeing that in the excitement surrounding the SpaceX IPO.

"I don’t think the 'Musk Effect' is some made-up premium ... it's backed by execution over and over again," says David Fetherstonhaugh, senior vice president and investment strategist at VistaShares. "There is something real there."

For SpaceX, specifically, Fetherstonhaugh points to the company's aggressive launch cadence over the past several years. "SpaceX did 25 launches in 2020. Then 31. Then 61. Then 96. Then 134. Then 165 last year. At some point, that is not a cool stat anymore. He is actively pushing the boundaries of multiple industries."

And impressive growth in Starlink revenue, which jumped 50% year over year in 2025, will help fund SpaceX's other initiatives.

Fetherstonhaugh admits that the SpaceX IPO is not cheap, but says that "no other public company that gives you this combination of launch, satellites, connectivity, and full-stack control of space infrastructure." So, if you buy SPCX stock, you're "paying up for execution, speed, and the possibility that the market is much bigger than investors originally thought."

However, buyers should know that the "Musk Effect" goes both ways. Folks were quick to sell Tesla shares and stop buying Tesla cars in early 2025 in part because of a backlash related to Musk's actions and commentary when he was head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

As Fetherstonhaugh cautions, "anything tied to Musk is going to come with volatility."

- Karee Venema

Elon Musk's net worth could top $1 trillion today

Elon Musk has long held the title as the richest person in the world, but he cemented that status following SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, which will likely make him the first-ever trillionaire once SPCX stock begins trading, on paper at least.

At last check, Forbes had Elon Musk's net worth at $981.1 billion. We'll check this again at the end of the day.

The energy impact on orbital data centers

I'm still skeptical of orbital data centers technically working in a lot of ways. But the economics is an even bigger question. How the heck do you get the cost equivalent or better than Earth-based data centers?

I wrote a story about why AI dominance is measured by energy, and it's true AI models get better with more data, parameters and compute. That takes massive amounts of energy. There's no real sign that it's slowing, but in a decade, could there be some energy-efficient breakthrough? Or more efficient models? Or demand dies down? Seems possible and that would mess with orbital data center business models. They also require very low launch costs.

I read an interesting article that if Starship launched hourly, it would be a huge pollution issue. Because Starship is so enormous, it requires far bigger engines that create massive amounts of pollution. That's not an issue now with 10-20 heavy launches per year. But if you do 100s of heavy launches? I guess it could be an issue.

- John Miley

SpaceX stock opens above IPO price

SpaceX (SPCX) stock has officially begun trading on the Nasdaq, with shares opening at $150 per share, more than 11% above the IPO price.

At last check, shares were seen near $157 after hitting an intraday high of $162.98 (as of 11:55).

SpaceX IPO governance: why Elon Musk's control could become a bigger investor issue

The buzz surrounding the SpaceX IPO has focused mostly on the company's massive valuation, retail investor demand and the potential for one of the largest public offerings in market history. But there has been much less attention on a critical issue for investors: corporate governance.

Alon Kapen, a partner and corporate transactional lawyer at Farrell Fritz P.C., has reviewed SpaceX's S-1 and sees several provisions that stand out. Here's what he had to say:

What are some of the key governance issues?

I'd say the concentration of control is the major governance issue here. SpaceX's governance structure seems designed to ensure that Elon Musk retains authority over the company's strategic direction, even as public shareholders come in.

The mechanism for effectuating this level of control begins with SpaceX's dual-class share structure, in which Musk's Class B shares carry 10 votes each, versus one vote per Class A share sold to the public. The structure results in Musk controlling 85% of SpaceX's voting power despite holding only approximately 42% of its equity.

Also, Musk can only be removed from his roles as CEO, CTO and chairman by a vote of Class B shareholders, which he controls.

Another key governance issue is dispute resolution. SpaceX has adopted a mandatory binding arbitration clause for all shareholder disputes, and I believe it's the first major U.S. company to do so in a public offering. Shareholders must "irrevocably and unconditionally" waive the right to a jury trial and are prohibited from bringing class actions against the company or its directors, officers or controlling shareholders.

Finally, SpaceX reincorporated in 2024 from Delaware to Texas. Texas imposes greater procedural hurdles for initiating tender offers, proxy contests and shareholder proposals, making it more difficult for activists to wage activism campaigns such as removing directors or officers.

How does SpaceX's governance compare to other tech companies?

SpaceX's dual-class capital structure certainly fits within a broader pattern of founder-led companies where insiders retain supermajority control post-IPO. Think Facebook, Snap, Google and Tesla where dual-class shares preserve founder authority beyond an IPO. But unlike SpaceX, at least most of those companies had built in sunset provisions.

Might SpaceX's governance approach influence other companies? Or is this more of a special situation?

I think it's both. SpaceX is obviously a special situation. It has a national security dimension that arguably gives regulators reason to defer to management continuity. That makes it hard to generalize. But it could still reinforce an ongoing trend of founders pushing for dual-class structures and extending control post-IPO.

If SpaceX goes public with aggressive founder control preservation mechanisms and the stock performs well, it will be harder for investors to push back on the next company that tries it.

Ultimately, SpaceX can justify its structure because of its track record and unique positioning with governments. Without those factors, though, companies trying to duplicate their governance model would likely face significant investor pushback.

- Tom Taulli

Why history points to a rough road for SpaceX stock

The SpaceX IPO may be one of the most anticipated public offerings in years. But a recent Truist study offers a cautionary reminder: big-name IPOs often come with severe volatility. The study looked at 30 major IPOs and found that the average maximum drawdown in the first year was 55%. Even more striking, the best case still involved a 20% decline, while the worst fell 90%. While the average 12-month return was positive, the median return was negative.

This could be an ominous sign for early SpaceX investors. The company has enormous promise, but the hype is already intense. That alone can create a valuation that is difficult to sustain once the stock begins trading and investors start scrutinizing the numbers.

SpaceX is also a complicated business. It is not just a rocket company. It includes launch services, Starlink broadband, Starship development, an AI-related segment and even X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter). Each has different risks, economics, capital needs and timelines. That complexity could make it harder for public investors to value the company, especially if one segment disappoints.

Then there is the lock-up issue. Many early employees, executives and investors are sitting on enormous gains. Once they are allowed to sell, the temptation to unload shares could be strong.

This does not mean SpaceX will fail as a public company. But it does suggest that the first year could be far more volatile than the launch-day excitement implies.

- Tom Taulli

Tesla trades lower as SpaceX stock soars

While SpaceX stock is higher in afternoon trading on Friday, Tesla (TSLA) shares were last seen in negative territory, down 0.2%.

Elon Musk's other publicly traded company has struggled on the price charts in recent months and is down more than 11% for the year to date.

But in the longer term, Tesla has been a strong performer. Over the past 15 years, for instance, the consumer discretionary stock has averaged an annual gain of 43%, outperforming the broader S&P 500 by more than 28 percentage points.

And Wall Street is generally upbeat on Tesla's outlook. Of the 47 analysts covering the stock who are tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 23 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, 18 have it at Hold and six rate it a Sell or Strong Sell. This works out to a consensus Buy recommendation.

Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target of $420.55 represents implied upside of nearly 6% to current levels.

- Karee Venema

SpaceX IPO mints one new trillionaire, thousands of new millionaires

Elon Musk is officially a trillionaire, on paper at least. With SpaceX stock trading near $165 per share at last check, Musk's net worth has swelled to $1.1 trillion, up $88.7 billion from yesterday.

However, Musk isn't the only person who has seen their net worth swell today. According to The New York Times, roughly 4,400 current and former SpaceX employees who held onto their early shares are poised to become millionaires in the aftermath of the blockbuster IPO.

And 400 of those people are expected to see their wealth jump past the $100 million marker.

- Karee Venema

What Wall Street is saying about the SpaceX IPO

There was no shortage of analyst notes released today about the SpaceX IPO. Here's a small sampling of what Wall Street has to say, edited at times for brevity:

"Everyone thinks of SpaceX as a rocket company. Increasingly, that’s the wrong lens. In a matter of months, SpaceX has become the world's largest and most profitable AI neocloud, and over the next year, that business will contribute more profits than launches or satellite internet." - Nicholas Anderson, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management

"It's important to take some of the projections with a grain of salt. Elon has talked about a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. Interestingly, the majority of that opportunity is tied to what is currently the company's cash incinerator — the AI segment of the business. We're also expecting a merger with Tesla in 2027 or 2028, so it's possible to envision a scenario in which not only the company's market capitalization, but also its revenue growth, becomes exponential. Right now, it's difficult to even quantify the potential scale." - Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments

"This is not just an IPO — it's a major liquidity event for venture capital, with significant upside potential but elevated valuation, governance, and volatility risks." - Kaush Amin, Managing Director and Head of Private Market Investing at U.S. Bank Asset Management

"We have a negative outlook given dependence on unproven outcomes including Starship commercialization, orbital AI compute, and xAI monetization. While Starlink remains the strongest business, it faces risks from capacity expansion needs, regulatory approvals, and competition from terrestrial broadband and other LEO systems. We believe the market assigns too much value to future optionality and insufficient discount to execution risk." - Keith Snyder, Senior Equity Analyst at CFRA Research

"What's worth watching more closely is what comes after SpaceX. The upcoming IPO pipeline may look like a celebration of the AI boom, but looking at trader sentiment, it could have the makings of a late-cycle rush. As the company dominates commercial launch and Starlink continues to scale, analysts at New Street Research are already projecting 22% upside within 12 months of listing. The risks here aren't necessarily that SpaceX is a bad investment, but that a $1.77T entry point leaves very little margin for error, and that the retail enthusiasm surrounding it could produce the kind of volatility that shakes out investors before things play out in the long-term." - Stephen Callahan, Trading Behavior Analyst at Firstrade

- Karee Venema

SpaceX becomes the sixth largest U.S. company by market cap

At last check, SpaceX stock is trading near $170 per share, giving Elon Musk's space and exploration company a market valuation of $2.22 trillion. This makes SpaceX the sixth-biggest U.S. company by market cap, behind Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN).

Tesla (TSLA), Elon Musk's other publicly traded company, is the eighth-largest U.S. company by market cap, with a valuation of $1.51 trillion.

"SpaceX is not your typical mega-cap company," says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Investors are being asked to underwrite an investment case and product roadmap that stretches well beyond the time horizon for your typical trillion-dollar-club business."

Britzman adds that traditional valuation tools can help frame the debate on a stock, "but they only go so far when so much of the story depends on future breakthroughs, new markets and successful execution across several ambitious areas at once."

As such, he cautions that this creates both opportunity and risk, and "investors would do well to be mindful of both sides of that coin."

- Karee Venema

SpaceX enjoys a peaceful launch

The main equity indexes were mixed this morning, ahead of the debut of Elon Musk's SpaceX as a publicly traded company.

SpaceX (SPCX) started trading at about 11:45 am Eastern Standard Time and immediately popped 11.1% from its $135 offering price to $150. SPCX closed up 19.2% at $160.95, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.

Meanwhile, all three main indexes rallied on firmer word of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz.

By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% at 51,202, the broad-based S&P 500 was higher by 0.5% at 7,431, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 0.3% at 25,888.

– David Dittman

Read more: Stocks Pop on SpaceX IPO, Hormuz Peace Plan: Stock Market Today

Stocks opened lower Wednesday and stayed there through the close as geopolitical worries ramped up after the U.S. launched strikes against Iran late Tuesday and President Donald Trump threatened more attacks. Another red-hot inflation reading weighed on sentiment, too.

President Trump kept to his word. After saying on Tuesday that the U.S. "must, of necessity, respond" to the shooting down of an Army Apache helicopter, the military launched multiple strikes against Iranian targets last night.

And in an early morning Truth Social post, Trump criticized Iran, saying it has "taken too long to negotiate a deal," and "will have to pay the price." Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office later in the day, Trump said that "we're going to be attacking them" and "we're going to hit them again hard today."

The news sent oil prices soaring today, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbing 2.1% to $90.03 per barrel.

The stock market, on the other hand, finished the day in negative territory. At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.9% at 49,918, the broader S&P 500 was off 1.6% at 7,266, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 2.0% lower at 25,169.

Higher energy prices keep inflation hot

While oil prices have pulled back from their early April highs near $113 per barrel, they're still up more than 35% since the war in Iran began in late February. And this has had a noticeable impact on inflation.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation was up 0.5% from April to May and 4.2% higher than the year prior. While the monthly increase decelerated from April's 0.6%, the annual rise was up from 3.8% the month prior and marked the highest yearly pace since April 2023.

Energy costs had the biggest impact on the May CPI report. "The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase," wrote the BLS in its report.

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Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and 2.9% year over year. This compares to April's increases of 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively.

Ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting — the first with Kevin Warsh at the helm — many are wondering if higher inflation readings mean the central bank's next move will be a rate hike.

But Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, doesn't see that happening any time soon. "It's clear that rate cuts are off the table, and while there is chatter about a potential rate hike, we believe it's unlikely that we'll see a rate hike before the midterm elections, and any such hike is likely a year away," he says.

Nike gets downgraded ahead of earnings

Two-thirds of Dow Jones stocks closed lower today, and Nike (NKE, -1.5%) was one of them. This came after RBC Capital analyst Piral Dadhania downgraded the blue chip stock to Sector Perform from Outperform, the equivalents of Hold and Buy, respectively.

The analyst says that Nike's turnaround efforts under CEO Elliott Hill are "making progress," but at a "slower and narrower" pace than anticipated. He also does not expect the World Cup or inventory cleanup to create any sustainable revenue boosts this year.

In addition, Dadhania lowered his price target on NKE to $50 from $70, though this is hardly the lowest on Wall Street. That distinction goes to BNP Paribas Exane's $23 target price for Nike, representing implied downside of nearly 50% to current levels.

The athletic apparel and footwear maker is slated to disclose its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the June 30 close. Analysts expect earnings to rise roughly 16% year over year, but revenue to decline by about 2%.

Casey's climbs 20% in a down day

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Casey's General Stores (CASY) surged 20.3% — making it the best S&P 500 stock today — after the convenience store chain said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings rose 66% year over year and revenue was 14.5% higher.

The company also said its board of directors approved a 14% hike to its quarterly dividend earlier this month, marking the 27th consecutive year it has increased its payout.

"Casey's reported an exceptionally strong fiscal fourth quarter," says William Blair analyst Phillip Blee, with the company seeing a "nice tailwind" from spiking gas prices. He expects "a series of beat-and-raise prints throughout the upcoming fiscal year," given strong sales both inside the store and at the gas pumps.

Casey's General Stores was added to the S&P 500 Index in early April, replacing the now-private Hologic. Since then, its share price is up more than 22%.

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If you don't think your purchasing power is the same as it was even a few months ago, you're not alone. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its May CPI report, showing inflation rose 0.5% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 4.20%, the highest it's been in three years.

Fuel costs remain the primary catalyst for these trends. As the conflict in Iran persists, expensive energy continues to inflate the price of everything from airfare to groceries.

What's more, if you're trying to shelter your cash from rising prices, it's hard to find many savings accounts outpacing the current rate. I'll show you the few savings accounts I found that will keep you ahead of inflation, what the inflation number means for Federal Reserve policy and other steps you should consider.

These are the savings accounts outpacing inflation

Letting your cash sit in a savings account that doesn't outpace inflation means you're losing money every day, and these days, it's nearly impossible to find a savings account that does outpace inflation.

Your best option is a jumbo CD, the only CD type offering rates that outpace inflation at its current level. As its name implies, a jumbo CD requires a larger deposit, usually $50,000 to $100,000. The good news is that many of the maturity windows fall within six months to a year, giving you time to earn thousands of dollars effortlessly, with the flexibility to pivot if prices continue to rise.

With this in mind, here are two accounts to consider, both requiring $100,000 minimum deposits, and both with rates higher than the current inflation rate:

• ECFU Financial: 6-month CD at 4.35%
• ECFU Financial: 1-year CD at 4.35%

Another option I would consider is a high-yield savings account, but look carefully at the rates, as many don't outpace current inflation. Newtek Bank offers a savings account earning 4.20% APY with no monthly fees. While it won't keep you ahead of inflation, you'll at least break even.

The benefit of this account is that you build your savings without tying your money up as you would with a jumbo CD. It makes this account perfect for those looking to build an emergency fund or to achieve short-term savings goals with cash flexibility. Plus, if inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve might have to look at raising rates, which would mean the rate on a high-yield savings account would also adjust upward.

Will this inflation news change Fed policy?

Not in the interim. The Fed meets on June 16-17, with the CME Group FedWatch projecting a 96% probability they'll leave rates alone.

That said, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack believes changes must come if inflation continues to rise. In a speech to the City Club of Cleveland on June 2, she said that, currently, monetary policy alone might not be enough to bring inflation down to the Fed's target rate of 2%.

She added that if higher inflation becomes embedded in the economy, bolder moves, such as rate hikes, might be needed to help the Fed achieve its inflation target.

And this might be the trend we see play out. Unless something changes in the Middle East, "gasoline and other fuel prices will continue rising in the coming months," writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger inflation outlook.

"Food prices will also start rising in the future, as one-third of the world's fertilizer supply is produced in the Persian Gulf region, along with 10% of aluminum, used in everything from jets to soda cans." If core inflation continues to rise, it might make the Fed consider a rate hike to help bring inflation down to its intended target.

What should you do amid rising inflation?

First, make sure you have an emergency savings fund with at least six months of expenses in a high-yield savings account. I suggest using Newtek Bank in the interim since it's the only one earning the same rate as inflation.

Once you reach your savings goal, I recommend investing more of your money in the stock market, where returns might protect your cash from inflationary pressures. Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine recently released our annual feature on where to find top yields for the rest of 2026, and you can also take a look at our picks for the best Vanguard ETFs and highest-yielding dividend stocks in the S&P 500, for more liquidity.

And if you need help on where to invest your money, use this Bankrate tool to find a reputable adviser to assist you, as they can create a plan based on your finances, goals and risk profile:

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The main equity indexes opened comfortably higher Tuesday but quickly erased these early gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions. A bearish reversal in chip stocks created headwinds, too, as market participants sought out more defensive plays.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite were each roughly 1% higher out of the gate today, but were staring at stiff losses by lunchtime. At the close, the Dow was up 0.2% at 50,872, but the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower at 7,386, and the Nasdaq was off 1% at 25,678.

Sentiment took a hit after President Donald Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. military helicopter and that "the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack."

Trump's post on Truth Social temporarily caused oil prices to spike, but front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished the session down 3.4% at $88.20 per barrel after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is "rising very meaningfully."

Fear gauge spikes, defensive stocks see upside

Evidence of investors' skittishness was seen in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) Tuesday, with the market's "fear gauge" jumping 5% to 19.86.

Gains in several defensive sectors, including real estate (+2.1%), healthcare (+1.3%) and consumer staples stocks (+1.0%) also signaled a more cautious stance from market participants.

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J. M. Smucker (SJM, +10.4%) was the best S&P 500 stock today as the packaged-food maker's better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter offset its forecast for declining revenue in its new fiscal year.

Ahead of SJM's earnings report, UBS Global Research analyst Peter Grom reiterated a Buy rating on the defensive stock, saying the company's "setup remains among the best in the group as SJM will likely underwrite on-algorithm bottom-line growth for fiscal 2027, a rarity relative not only to Packaged Food peers but also across our whole Staples universe."

And while Grom expected weaker top-line guidance, he noted that "investors view SJM's portfolio as more immune to the ongoing challenges across the industry."

Micron's sell-off is an "opportunity," says UBS

Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red today — technology (-1.8%) and energy (-1.6%). But given that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are weighted by market capitalization rather than price as is the Dow, the selling in mega-cap tech stocks had an outsize impact.

Several of Wall Street's trillion-dollar stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA, -0.2%), Apple (AAPL, -3.6%) and Broadcom (AVGO, -1.1%) closed lower.

Memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), which catapulted north of a $1 trillion market cap late last month, also finished in the red, shedding 1.4%. Shares are now down more than 13% since June 3, but Wall Street isn't worried.

Indeed, MU remains one of analysts' top-rated S&P 500 stocks. Of the 44 analysts covering the tech stock tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 39 say it's a Buy or Strong Buy, four have it at Hold and one says Sell. This works out to a consensus Strong Buy rating.

UBS Global Research analyst Nicolas Gaudois on Monday reiterated his Buy rating and $1,625 price target — representing implied upside of nearly 75% to current levels.

Gaudois says Micron's recent sell-off creates an "opportunity" for investors, as "checks point to continuing upside in demand [for memory chipmakers], not downside, which is likely to persist on agentic AI demand."

What to expect from the May CPI report

The war in Iran and semiconductor volatility are top of mind for Wall Street this week, but market participants will also be watching Wednesday morning's release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Energy prices have soared in recent months as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused recent inflation readings to come in hot and erased any expectations for rate cuts this year.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders don't expect any rate cuts at all in 2026. Earlier this year, betting odds were for at least one quarter-point cut.

The Federal Open Market Committee may even consider rate hikes this year, writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger inflation outlook. "The Fed generally discounts energy price fluctuations in its deliberations on interest rate policy. But the central bank will also note that 'core' inflation (excluding food and energy) is likely to creep upwards as the year progresses," he explains.

The May CPI report hits one week before the Fed — now led by Chair Kevin Warsh — issues its latest policy decision. Economists expect headline inflation to be up 4.3% year over year, which would be the highest annual increase since April 2023.

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Drive through eastern Loudoun County, Virginia, and you will quickly understand why some parts of the area are often referred to as "Data Center Alley."

Massive, windowless gray cement structures rise up behind fences and security gates, while cranes loom over roads once lined with trees, now covered in mud from construction traffic, working to make way for yet another data center.

This mixed suburban/rural area is now home to the world’s largest concentration of data centers. Around 200 facilities are currently operating in Loudoun alone, with more planned, and they handle over one-third of the world’s daily internet traffic.

While supporters argue these centers are vital to the digital economy, many residents — not only in Virginia but across the United States — are concerned about their rapid expansion, energy and water use, and broader environmental impact.

Critics also highlight that these facilities often create fewer permanent jobs compared to the tax incentives they receive. As tensions grow, the question becomes: where do residents and lawmakers go from here?

The great data center debate

Data centers are specialized facilities that house a variety of computing components, including servers, networking equipment, and extensive drives.

Their prevalence has increased in recent years, as every time someone streams a movie, stores photos, shops online, uses social media, or interacts with AI chatbots, information is processed through these centers worldwide.

There are now reportedly around 4,000 data centers in the U.S., which some see as a good thing, helping create jobs and generate revenue.

But…data centers place significant demands on local infrastructure.

• Modern data center campuses can span dozens or even hundreds of acres and often require new power lines, substations, roads, and other infrastructure.
• Many consume significant amounts of electricity. (Just a few years ago, data centers accounted for an estimated 4% of total electricity use in the United States. By 2028, that figure is expected to climb to as high as 12%.)
• Data centers also typically rely on large diesel-powered backup generators to ensure uninterrupted operations during power outages, which raises concerns about local air quality in some communities. (According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, diesel exhaust from backup generators contains fine particulate matter and nitrogen oxides that are associated with respiratory issues like asthma.)

Notably, data centers and water have emerged as another point of contention.

Depending on the design and cooling technology, large facilities can consume hundreds of thousands of gallons of water per day to cool server racks. Some large campuses reportedly use volumes comparable to those of a small town, raising sustainability questions in some communities.

Still, states and local governments across the country have spent years competing to attract data center development, often by offering generous tax incentives.

Data center tax exemptions

In recent years, 38 states have offered generous incentives, including sales tax exemptions on servers and equipment and property tax reductions, to win a larger share of the industry's explosive growth.

Increasingly, however, several of those states are facing backlash not just from residents but also from some lawmakers.

As a result, some are moving toward requiring greater transparency, shifting infrastructure costs onto developers, reexamining tax incentives, or studying the industry's impact on electricity and water supplies and local communities.

Some examples:

Illinois: Late last week, Gov. JB Pritzker directed the state's Department of Commerce to completely halt the processing of all new data center tax exemptions starting July 1.

"Illinois has an opportunity to continue leading in technological innovation and economic growth, but we also have a responsibility to protect working families and local communities as the data center industry rapidly expands," Pritzker stated in a release.

Ohio: In May, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine ordered the state’s Tax Credit Authority to freeze all pending and new data center sales tax exemption requests. The halt came after a state report revealed that the exemption cost Ohio $1.5 billion in 2025 alone.

In a release regarding the issue, DeWine wrote, “I fully support the Ohio General Assembly's work to study the issue and bring forward facts about data centers, including the local benefits to communities when tax exemptions are granted.”

Georgia: Lawmakers in the Peach State are moving to phase out data center tax suspensions after a state audit revealed the exemptions will cost a projected $2.5 billion this year.

Data centers in Virginia: What’s happening

In Virginia, lawmakers in the Senate want to let a multibillion-dollar annual data center tax exemption expire, while the Virginia House is reportedly trying to tie any remaining tax breaks to strict environmental and clean-energy compliance rules.

According to the Commonwealth’s tax disclosures, the existing data-center sales-tax exemption in the Old Dominion state cost an estimated $1.6 billion last fiscal year.

That massive exemption and the growing backlash over the more than 600 data centers already in the Commonwealth are sticking points in a budget process that must be completed by the end of June.

At the same time, in some other states, resistance to data centers has led to new legislation. (This is not an all-inclusive list.)

• In Oklahoma, Gov. Kevin Stitt signed the Data Center Consumer Ratepayer Protection Act of 2026 into law, effective July 1. The law is designed to prevent utility cost hikes for residents.
• New York lawmakers just passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act (A11560), which, once enacted, will impose a one-year moratorium on permits for new data centers of 20 megawatts or more.
• Monterey Park, California, became the first U.S. city to enact a ban on data center developments after roughly 88% of local voters approved a June 2 ballot measure.

As of June 2026, according to various online trackers, more than 25 states are either advancing data-center-related legislation or have enacted measures that address grid cots, reporting requirements, utility regulation, tax incentives, or local authority over data centers.

What about Congress? In March 2026, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y) introduced the Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act. The measure, which would temporarily pause new data center construction nationwide while Congress develops federal rules for AI infrastructure, hasn’t gained traction on Capitol Hill.

Are data centers bad? Bottom line

The debate over the good and not-so-good aspects of data centers shows no signs of going away.

A recent Gallup poll finds that 71% of Americans now oppose the construction of AI data centers in their local communities (with 48% strongly opposed). The pollsters note that local data center construction is more unpopular in the U.S. than building a nuclear power plant.

This “not in my backyard” sentiment is split between environmental concerns (expressed by 50% of respondents) and economic fears, e.g., higher utility bills (about 20% of respondents), according to Gallup. Pollution, negative views of AI, and quality-of-life concerns were also factors for some.

While polling data help explain national sentiment, grassroots opposition efforts highlight local concerns.

• In Hood and Hill Counties, Texas, residents hoped to block eight proposed data centers by attending town halls in large numbers, though developers are fighting back in court. A similar effort occurred in Champaign County, Illinois, leading to a moratorium to protect a crucial aquifer.
• In Sand Springs, Oklahoma, residents mobilized in response to reports that local officials had allegedly signed non-disclosure agreements to annex 827 acres of agricultural land for a tech campus.
• Residents in Box Elder County, Utah, along with Alliance for a Better Utah, have filed a lawsuit against state development agencies over a 40,000-acre AI project backed by celebrity investors. They argue it undermines local voter oversight and grants big tech unchecked control over their water, roads, and tax structure.

Meanwhile, among those polled by Gallup who favor having a data center in their communities, the most cited reason why was potential job growth.

To that end, a Brookings Institution analysis finds that while data centers do create local jobs, it is likely “fewer than advocates claim.”

Some independent estimates put the total at a few dozen to a few hundred long-term on-site positions once a given center is constructed.

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Stocks opened higher across the board Monday as chips stocks rebounded from Friday's drubbing. But while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the broader S&P 500 held their gains through the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was not so resilient.

At the close, the Nasdaq was up 0.9% at 25,929 and the S&P 500 was 0.3% higher at 7,405. The Dow, on the other hand, was down 0.2% at 50,786.

On Friday, a broad sell-off in semiconductor stocks weighed down the three main equity benchmarks, with the Nasdaq incurring its biggest one-day drop in over a year.

"The AI-fueled tech rally got a bit of a reality check last week, but after nine straight up weeks, the market was arguably due for at least a reset," says Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "The fact that Friday's strong jobs report appeared to add fuel to the selling indicates the market could be even more focused on inflation going forward."

And while Larkin says Friday's sharp losses did not "derail the rally," it does suggest market participants are "more sensitive to negative surprises in the near term."

This makes the Wednesday morning release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) an even bigger economic calendar event than usual, because recent hot inflation readings have erased any expectations for rate cuts this year.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders don't expect any rate cuts at all in 2026. Earlier this year, betting odds were for at least one quarter-point cut.

The Federal Open Market Committee may even consider rate hikes this year, writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger inflation outlook. "The Fed generally discounts energy price fluctuations in its deliberations on interest rate policy. But the central bank will also note that 'core' inflation (excluding food and energy) is likely to creep upwards as the year progresses," he explains.

Wednesday's inflation date hits one week before the Fed — now led by Chair Kevin Warsh — issues its latest policy decision.

Intel, Micron lead chip rebound

Chip stocks created the biggest buying pressure to start the week, rebounding after disappointing Broadcom's (AVGO, +2.8%) guidance sparked an industry-wide meltdown.

Intel (INTC, +11.2%) and Micron Technology (MU, +9.9%) were the best-performing S&P 500 stocks Monday, followed closely by KLA Corp. (KLAC, +9.3%).

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Meanwhile, Marvell Technology (MRVL), which will join the S&P 500 ahead of the June 22 open — replacing Pool (POOL, -2.5%) — surged 9.6%.

S&P Global also announced that data center solutions firm Flex (FLEX, -0.7%) will replace The Campbell's Company (CPB, -0.9%) on the S&P 500, effective June 22.

Apple slips as WWDC kicks off

Not all tech stocks were higher to start the week. Apple (AAPL), for one, dropped 1.9% as the iPhone parent kicked off WWDC 2026, its annual developers conference.

In addition to unveiling new child safety features for parents and its latest operating systems, the company also gave a highly anticipated update to its artificial intelligence strategy.

For one thing, Apple is rebranding Siri as "Siri AI" and it will use Apple Intelligence to become "a profoundly more capable assistant," said Mike Rockwell, VP of engineering at Apple.

The company also announced new ways users can utilize Apple Intelligence, including fixing insecure passwords and analyzing videos taken with the Home app.

Earlier this year, Apple said that it signed a multi-year agreement with Alphabet's (GOOGL, -1.4%) Google to use its Gemini AI model to power Siri and Apple Intelligence.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks Apple's AI initiatives will be a game-changer for the Dow Jones stock.

"We strongly believe this will be the start of AI monetization period of the Apple ecosystem as the company will continue lay the foundation through its new operating system updates across mac, iOS, iPad, and others with its iOS 27 update," Ives writes in a June 4 research note.

And the company's AI monetization efforts "will ultimately add $75 to $100 to Apple stock and that is not being factored into the current multiple in our view," he says. "We see a golden path ahead for Apple in this AI era … it starts at WWDC."

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To help you understand the trends surrounding business and technology and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.) You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here's the latest…

When you think about Facebook, you don’t think about monthly subscription fees. Meta wants to change that with the upcoming launch of subscription plans.

Diversifying revenue makes sense for a company that makes 98% of its sales from ads. But another factor is at play: The need to cover the soaring cost of AI infrastructure. Meta is all-in on the AI race and recently raised its planned capital expenditures for the year to between $125 billion and $145 billion, mostly because of rising memory chip prices.

Meta’s sales are smaller than the other Big Tech companies that are plowing money into AI. And unlike the other three AI giants — Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft — Meta doesn’t have a cloud computing business that sells computing to outside customers.

Meta hopes for new ways to pay for "superintelligence"

Subscriptions are part of a bigger transformation CEO Mark Zuckerberg laid out in the company’s most recent earnings call. It’s a "vision of superintelligence," Zuckerberg said during the first-quarter earnings call at the end of April. "Our goal is not just to deliver Meta AI as an assistant, but to deliver agents that can understand your goals and then work day and night to help you achieve them."

The specifics of this vision are a bit hazy, but the focus is AI agents, the autonomous tools that do multistep tasks on a computer. Zuckerberg talked about AI helping with health, education, relationships, social media content, games, and personal and career goals. He said AI agents could buy a shirt for your daughter or help researchers cure a disease.

"I think people are going to also be willing to pay a lot of money to have premium or high-compute versions" of AI that helps achieve goals, Zuckerberg said.

There aren't many details so far on the subscriptions, which were unveiled in an Instagram post by Meta's head of product. The company revealed pricing to some news outlets, including TechCrunch. The social media versions come with extra features, such as more analytics and methods to increase viewership for posts. The AI subscriptions offer the ability to do more complex tasks with higher caps on subscribers’ usage. Meta is also targeting businesses with paid AI tools that can answer customer messages, book appointments and close sales.

Meta faces an uphill battle with subscriptions

Meta subscriptions are a long shot for the consumer market. Users have gotten used to free social media, video, messaging and other features on Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. And the market for AI tools is fiercely competitive, as companies such as Google and OpenAI battle for consumers. It wouldn’t be surprising if Meta struggles to get the subscriptions business to a level that would be significant to its overall revenue.

But success is relative to Meta’s formidable scale. The company made $200 billion in sales last year and now has 3.5 billion people using at least one of its apps every day. With such a huge pool of potential customers to market subscriptions to, Meta could easily find millions of willing buyers, especially among dedicated content creators. Meta will likely offer the most cutting-edge AI features to paying customers, hoping to entice free users to upgrade.

Meta Subscription Plans

1. For Social Media and Messaging

• Instagram Plus: $3.99/month
• Facebook Plus: $3.99/month
• WhatsApp Plus: $2.99/month

2. For Creators and Businesses

• Meta One Essential: $14.99/month
• Meta One Advanced: $49.99/month

3. For AI Users

• Meta One Plus: $7.99/month
• Meta One Premium: $19.99/month

The challenge of tracking Meta’s AI spending ROI

One analyst asked Zuckerberg what he is watching to make sure there’s a healthy return on investment when it comes to the soaring capex spending. Zuckerberg said the focus is building a top AI model that goes head-to-head with Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI. Then he said, "I mean like, I don’t think we have a precise plan for exactly how each product is going to scale month-over-month or anything like that."

The lack of specifics, tied to the exorbitant spending required to be an AI leader, is one reason some investors are concerned, even though Meta continues to point to growing ad sales as a benefit of AI.

However, part of this new AI vision fits with Meta’s tried-and-true strategy: Get users to stay longer and see more ads. Zuckerberg said AI helps Meta understand users in more detail and makes ads more effective. He also highlighted that Meta has always focused on building a huge audience first and making money later.

Meta says it has an escape hatch of sorts to avoid owning a glut of unused data center capacity. Zuckerberg says the company has flexibility to bring data centers online more slowly or reduce spending in future years. He’s even said Meta could launch a cloud computing business to rent out computing power to other companies.

Those ideas aren’t in the works yet. "Our experience so far has been that we have continued to underestimate our compute needs," he said. That’s mainly because Meta has aggressively rolled out free AI tools to both consumers and businesses, whether they want them or not.

This is not the first time Meta has pivoted

The transformation into an AI company, grounded by a massive social media platform, isn’t the first corporate shift. Recall how Facebook changed its name to Meta in 2021 to make a big push into the virtual reality-based metaverse, a move that hasn’t gained traction with users. That endeavor cost the company an estimated $80 billion.

It underscores Zuckerberg’s flexibility in pursuit of growth, like his abrupt shift to short-form video to compete with TikTok. That flexibility now underpins the bet on AI, his biggest one yet.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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With gas station prices nearing historic highs and supermarket prices racing to do the same, the inflation we're dealing with today can make sticking to a budget difficult.

The best thing you can do as a consumer is get creative about how you spend, whether that's being more intentional about the frugal habits you choose to use or making sure you're getting the most value out of each purchase you make.

One of my favorite tricks for combatting rising prices is leveraging cash back credit cards. While I use travel rewards cards for all my travel spending, I've found that simple cash back is the easiest way to keep rising everyday prices at bay.

It took some time at the outset to research my different options and decide which credit card mix made the most sense for my spending. But now, all I have to do is make sure I'm swiping the right card at checkout to pocket an extra $315 per year on average.

The gas station and supermarket credit cards I use

As a personal finance writer, I'm all about maximizing rewards. I've got a credit card for just about every spending category, and a catch-all card that earns 2% across the board for any purchases that don't earn better rewards on any other card.

For gas stations and U.S. supermarkets, I use the American Express Blue Cash Preferred and the Costco Anywhere Visa Card. The Amex earns 6% at U.S. supermarkets and 3% at gas stations. It also comes with up to $120 per year in streaming statement credits (distributed as up to $10 monthly credits) that I use to get a Hulu and Disney+ streaming bundle almost for free after the credit. My Costco card earns 5% at gas stations and 2% on anything else I buy from the warehouse club.

Both cards come with more perks and rewards, but those are the primary ones I use.

The Amex also comes with a $95 annual fee(see rates and fees). The Costco card has no fee, but you do need to have an active Costco membership, which costs $65 per year (or more if you spring for the executive membership).

Still, with how much I earn in cash-back every year and the other savings I enjoy as a Costco member, I more than make up for those fees. It's important, however, to review your credit card mix regularly and make sure you're still getting enough value out of any card that carries an annual fee.

How I earn $315 per year with these credit cards

Like many households with a Costco membership, the warehouse club is where I get the bulk of my staples such as flour, meat, frozen veggies and household supplies such as toilet paper and laundry detergent.

It's also the only place I buy fuel because I live a few minutes away from a Costco Business Center, where gas prices are consistently 10 to 20 cents cheaper than neighboring stations.

Whenever I'm shopping at Costco, I swipe my Costco card to get the 5% back on gas or 2% on everything I buy in store. For all my other staples — such as fresh produce, spices and anything else that's not available at Costco or not available in a quantity I can reasonably use quickly enough — I swipe my Amex card.

It's as simple as that. Just by being a little more intentional about which credit card I pull out at the cash register, I earned $315 last year. It was an almost even split of a little more than $150 in cash back from each card. That doesn't include the additional up to $120 in streaming credits I get on the Amex card.

Credit cards can also help with organizing your finances

An unintended benefit of having multiple credit cards for everyday spending is that it makes it easy to see at a glance how much I've spent on different categories of my budget. I only use my Amex and Costco credit cards for fuel and supermarkets. I know whatever the combined balance of those two cards is reflects the total amount I've spent so far on those two things.

For my two-person household, I typically try to keep our gas station and supermarket budget under $800 per month. That's roughly $200 per week.

Each week, I can just glance at the current balance on my Amex and Costco cards and see if I'm on track. If our expenses went above $200 last week, I know this week I'll be looking through the pantry to plan a menu that requires as few new ingredients as possible.

The key to any credit card strategy is avoiding interest

While credit cards can be powerful financial tools, they also carry some of the highest interest rates of any debt instrument you can get. For any of these cash back perks to matter, it's extremely important that you avoid spending more than you can afford to pay off in full at the end of the month.

That's why I have that $800 limit in place and why I check the balance weekly to see how well I'm sticking to it.

If you struggle with impulse buying or get overwhelmed when reviewing your finances, a credit card can be more risk than it's worth. A single month of paying interest might be enough to offset any rewards you would earn for an entire year. Make sure you have a plan and budget in place before you try to leverage a credit card rewards program.

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All three main equity indexes closed lower on Friday, as the AI trade unwound a little more in the wake of weak guidance from a major chip player. Meanwhile, a much stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report sapped almost all hope for lower interest rates this year.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 2.9% to $90.32 per barrel on Friday but rose 3.4% this week. The U.S. and Iran are in a stalemate in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with Saturday marking 100 days since the war began on February 28.

Broadcom (AVGO, -7.9%) was a big drag on two of the main equity indexes again in the aftermath of the semiconductor stock's underwhelming guidance, the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS, -3.8%) posted a steep loss and Nvidia (NVDA, -6.2%), the leader of the AI revolution, finished down more than 6% amid a sea of red for tech.

At the closing bell, the Nasdaq Composite was down 4.2% for the day and 4.7% for the week at 25,709. The broad-based S&P 500 had shed 2.6% to 7,383, finishing the five days with a loss of 2.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another new all-time high on an intraday basis early in the session but finished down 1.4% at 50,866. The index of blue chip stocks finished the week lower by 0.3%.

Hot jobs report sends rates higher

The May jobs report was a lot stronger than expected, which is generally good news for consumers and the broader economy. But it's bad news for investors, traders and speculators who want to see lower interest rates.

The 2-year Treasury yield, the market's measure of the Fed's intentions for the federal funds rate, ticked up to 4.16% from 4.049% on Thursday and 4.014% on Friday, May 29.

The 10-year Treasury yield, considered a broad measure of the economy but also the basis for the cost of corporate debt and auto loans, rose to 4.542% from 4.477% on Thursday and 4.453% last Friday.

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New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh might be able to do several things to change the central bank right now, but it looks like he won't be able to cut interest rates as soon as President Donald Trump would like. The next Fed meeting, for what it's worth, runs from June 16-17.

IBM leads the Dow lower

International Business Machines (IBM, -5.6%) was the three worst-performing Dow Jones stock on Friday, sliding again after posting losses of 7.2% on Wednesday and 1.3% on Thursday. Big Blue was up 7.6% on Monday and 2.7% on Tuesday, hitting a new 52-week high of $332.46 intraday, after management announced a $10 billion investment in quantum computing over the next five years.

IBM traded at its 52-week low of $212.34 intraday on May 13, so it's a 56.6% bottom-to-top run in about two and half weeks that's being digested.

As Wedbush analysts Matt Bryson and Antoine Legault explain, IBM is focused on building a "fault-tolerant" quantum computer by 2029, IBM Quantum Starling. Its planned investment is "another validation of quantum technology's potential."

"While we view IBM's 2029 goal as the de facto industry standard at this point (with most vendors targeting 2029/2030 for quantum equivalency)," the analysts write, "the scale of capital and a dedicated domestic foundry arguably give IBM's goal more weight than a standalone roadmap slide."

IBM was also named a partner for Nvidia's Vera Rubin AI accelerators.

TTAN is a blue-collar tech stock

ServiceTitan (TTAN, +4.1%) is definitely a tech stock according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, but it makes software for plumbers, electricians and other blue-collar tradespeople. That distinction hasn't exempted it from the existential crisis for software stocks in 2026.

But a team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Josh Baer sees TTAN as a "Top Pick" based on a "clean beat" for fiscal first-quarter results, including gross transaction volume, revenue, margins and free cash flow. Full-year guidance was ahead of Wall Street's forecast, too.

The analysts reiterated their Overweight (Buy) rating and raised their 12-month target price from $118 to $124 after ServiceTitan reported earnings on Friday.

As Baer and his colleagues note, growth accelerated for ServiceTitan. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence and its opportunity in the commercial space "expand the story," the fiscal 2027 setup "looks attractive," and TTAN's valuation "remains compelling."

At the same time, the analysts write, ServiceTitan is "well positioned for AI," based on ownership of "vast proprietary data sets serving as a moat." It also "enjoys current and future potential for high market share to yield large installed bases into which it can sell its AI solutions."

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The oldest of the three main equity indexes hit new highs on Thursday, helped by its heavy exposure to blue-chip healthcare and financial names. But it was a difficult day for one of the biggest publicly traded companies in the world – a major player in the AI boom. At the same time, technology was one of only two sectors in the red at the end of a trading session defined by some semiconductor weakness but broad strength just about everywhere else.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 1.7% to 51,561 – another new all-time closing high. The S&P 500 was up 0.4% at 7,584, but the Nasdaq Composite had slipped 0.1% to 26,830.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 2.9% to $93.22, as President Donald Trump said a Middle East peace deal could be completed "this weekend," while Iranian Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al Sabah countered that there's been no "significant progress" toward an agreement.

"One day of weakness doesn't necessarily signal the sudden demise of the chip rally," observes Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy team. "But it is a reminder that on a longer-term basis, history suggests semiconductor outperformance could slow and the rest of the market could catch up."

As Skelly sees it, investors may want to focus on "opportunities in areas of the market that are positioned to benefit most from AI adoption and monetization, including financials and health care," rather than AI stocks that have already seen "extreme" runs higher.

UNH gets upgraded

Indeed, UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +5.2%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock on Thursday, as its recovery from recent setbacks, including a federal investigation of its Medicare Advantage business and the assassination of a top executive, is gaining pace – with a little help from artificial intelligence.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright reiterated her Overweight (Buy) rating on UNH and cited it as her top pick in the managed care space, noting management's confidence that positive utilization trends from January through March carried into April.

Wright is broadly optimistic about UnitedHealth and its managed-care peers for another big reason: AI. The analyst notes that adoption across the ecosystem is well beyond pilot programs and that artificial intelligence is embedded across core workflows.

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In short, according to Wright, healthcare stocks are primed for AI, and companies like UNH are all in on the technology. The analyst raised her 12-month target price for the stock to $453 from $395 based on potential cost savings, revenue upside and long-term value creation.

Meanwhile, BofA analyst Kevin Fischbeck raised his rating on UNH to Buy from Neutral and upped his 12-month target price from $420 to $450, noting that UnitedHealth is well positioned within the managed-care industry should utilization trends continue to moderate.

AVGO is a big drag

Broadcom (AVGO, -12.6%) is still one of the top 10 companies in the world based on market cap. But it is about $29 billion smaller than it was yesterday at this hour. And because of its sheer size, it pulled on market-cap-weighted indexes such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite today.

Management's forward-looking guidance and conference-call commentary left investors, traders and speculators cool on the semiconductor stock after its hot run into its post-closing bell earnings announcement on Wednesday.

Broadcom reported earnings of $2.44 per share, up from $1.58 a year ago and better than Wall Street's forecast for $2.40. Revenue of $22.19 billion was up 47.9% and topped an estimate of $22.13 billion.

The chip maker expects fiscal third-quarter revenue growth of approximately 84% to around $29.4 billion vs a Wall Street forecast of $28.25 billion.

As Susquehanna's Christopher Rolland notes, CEO Hock Tan confirmed on Broadcom's call that the company would now only sell chip solutions to its customers and no longer sell racks to Anthropic, explaining soft guidance. Rolland reiterated his Positive (Buy) rating and his 12-month target price of $490 for AVGO, noting that "broader demand here remains 'insatiable' as AI semis bookings in the quarter reached >$30B."

Still, Macquarie analyst Arthur Lai cut his rating on AVGO to Neutral (Hold) from Outperform (Buy) and reduced his 12-month target price from $513 to $437, citing Alphabet (GOOGL, +3.7%) subsidiary Google's accelerating effort to make its own chips.

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For some, June means summer vacations, backyard barbecues, weddings, graduations, and the NBA Finals.

For many, taxes are probably among the last things they want to think about right now.

Unfortunately, the IRS doesn't take the summer off.

While the April 15 tax filing deadline has come and gone, there are important IRS deadlines to keep on your radar this month. If you're still waiting for a tax refund, there are a few developments worth noting.

Here's more about key IRS deadlines for June, refund processing, and some common summer activities that could affect next year's tax bill

June 15 estimated taxes

The second estimated tax payment for the 2026 tax year is due June 15, 2026.

The U.S. tax system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning taxpayers are generally expected to pay taxes throughout the year as income is earned. While traditional employees typically have taxes withheld from each paycheck, that isn't always the case for other types of income.

Estimated tax payments are commonly required for:

• Self-employed workers
• Freelancers and independent contractors
• Gig workers
• Small business owners
• Investors with significant dividend, interest, or capital gains income
• Landlords receiving rental income
• Some retirees who don't have enough tax withheld from their retirement income

Failing to pay enough tax during the year can result in IRS underpayment penalties, even if you ultimately pay your full tax bill when you file your return.

Taxpayers can use Form 1040-ES to estimate how much they should pay. After the June payment, the remaining estimated tax deadlines for 2026 are September 15, 2026, and January 15, 2027.

For more information, see our report: When Are Estimated Tax Payments Due?

June 15 filing deadline for Americans living abroad

June 15 is also an important date for U.S. citizens and resident aliens whose tax home and abode are outside the United States and Puerto Rico.

These taxpayers receive an automatic two-month extension beyond the standard April filing deadline. As a result, many expats have until June 15, 2026, to file their 2025 federal income tax returns.

It's important to remember that an extension applies to filing your return, not to paying your taxes. (That payment was due in April.) Interest generally begins accruing on unpaid balances after the regular April tax deadline.

Keep in mind:

• Many Americans living overseas might qualify for tax benefits, such as the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion or the Foreign Tax Credit, but they generally must file a U.S. tax return to claim them.
• Taxpayers who need additional time can typically request an extension until October by filing IRS Form 4868.

IRS refund status: Why some taxpayers might receive refunds in June

The IRS continues to issue refunds throughout the summer, and many taxpayers who filed later in the season might still be receiving their refunds in June.

• For most taxpayers who file electronically and choose direct deposit, refunds are generally issued within about 21 days.
• However, not every return moves through the system that quickly, particularly if additional review or corrections are required.

One issue affecting some taxpayers this year involves IRS Notice CP53E.

As Kiplinger has reported, this notice is generally issued when a direct deposit is rejected, most often due to incorrect or mismatched bank account information or a financial institution declining the deposit. When that happens, the IRS typically eventually issues the refund as a paper check.

While taxpayers still receive their money, the switch from electronic payments to mailed checks can add processing time and create delays that many weren't expecting. The CP53E letters, which have reportedly been sent to millions of taxpayers this year following the tax agency's move to phase out paper refund checks, have caused confusion.

If you're still waiting on a refund, the IRS recommends checking the "Where's My Refund?" tool on IRS.gov or logging directly into your official IRS online account.

For more information, see our IRS tax refund calendar for 2026.

Summer activities that could affect your next tax bill

Even if you've already filed your taxes this year, several common summer activities can affect the return you'll file next year, in early 2027.

Some common summer events that can affect taxes include:

Starting a summer job

Students and seasonal workers often take on summer employment. Keep in mind that even part-time work can affect tax withholding and potentially create a tax filing requirement.

Taking on gig work or a side hustle

Driving for a rideshare company, freelancing, selling products online or earning income through an app (a few examples) can create taxable income that isn't subject to tax withholding. That might mean estimated tax payments are necessary for some to avoid penalties later.

Getting married

Summer remains one of the most popular wedding seasons in the U.S. Marriage can affect filing status, tax brackets, deductions, credits and withholding. Newlyweds might want to review their Form W-4s to ensure enough tax is being withheld from their paychecks.

Welcoming a child

Having a baby or adopting a child might make taxpayers eligible for valuable tax benefits, including the Child Tax Credit and other family-related tax breaks.

Buying or selling a home

A home purchase can affect deductions and tax planning, while a home sale could potentially trigger capital gains considerations depending on the circumstances.

Changes in retirement income

Some retirees begin taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) during the year or adjust withholding on Social Security and retirement plans. Those changes can affect overall tax liability.

June tax concerns: Bottom line

The IRS is reminding taxpayers to review their withholding and tax situation whenever major life or income changes occur.

But keep in mind that midyear is a good time not only to review your potential tax liability and make adjustments that might lower your next tax bill, but also to take a holistic look at your finances.

Overall? Everyone's tax and financial situation is different. If you have any concerns about whether the June tax deadlines affect you, it's best to consult with a tax professional or certified financial planner who can provide tailored advice and guidance.

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At a time when college costs are spiraling out of control for many families, city, state and federal governments are offering relief. In the latest example, New York City has a proposal that would give kindergarteners $1,000 into a college savings account, with some families qualifying for up to $3,000.

Who qualifies for the maximum benefit? Jack Lobel, press secretary of the New York City Council, told Kiplinger, "Any participant who is already eligible for Human Resources Administration (HRA) benefits receives an additional $2,000 on top of the $1,000." The HRA is NYC's social service agency serving families by providing food, housing, child support and other services.

The measure would have to be approved by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who excluded the proposal from his executive budget in May, per the New York Times, although budget negotiations are ongoing. He has expressed interest in expanding contributions into children's savings accounts.

The NYC proposal is one of the latest government initiatives designed to jumpstart college savings. These programs, which offer free funding, represent the most pertinent news for families seeking college relief. Here's a look at other government-backed funds you may qualify for.

Which states offer college aid for families?

Here's a look at states providing some incentives to help you save for college:

• California: Through the CalKIDS program, children can earn scholarships of up to $1,500 if enrolled in low-income public schools.
• Connecticut: The Baby Bond program helps parents by providing up to $3,200 for low-income families with children to attend college, buy a home or start a business.
• Pennsylvania: Thanks to the Keystone Scholars initiative, every child born in the state receives $100 into a PA 529 education savings account.

Along with these, other states offering incentives include Texas, Indiana, Maine, Nebraska, Rhode Island and Nevada. If you live in one of these states, check out their programs and what you would need to do to qualify.

Meanwhile, there's a new national program about to roll out that benefits all qualified families.

Trump Accounts are bringing the concept nationwide

As part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025, the federal government will open tax-advantaged college savings accounts for U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028. These accounts feature a $1,000 contribution to help jumpstart your college savings.

From here, families can make annual contributions of up to $5,000 into U.S. equity funds — think the S&P 500. Employers can also make contributions, but they're capped at $2,500 annually.

You can open one by filling out Form 4547. Next, download the Trump Accounts app on the Apple App Store or Google Play. This allows you to monitor the account and make additional deposits. Once registered, you'll wait for an invite. These will come out in a few weeks as the Trump Accounts officially launch on July 4.

With this in mind, there are a few limitations to using these accounts. One, you won't be able to make any more contributions after your child reaches 18. Withdrawals are also not tax-free like they would be with 529 plans, and you have a narrower window of investment options. Still, even with the limitations, having $1,000 is a great start for families that need a boost with college savings.

In addition to using these programs, there are other options you can fund yourself that help you reach your savings goals, so you minimize how much debt you or your child needs to take on.

How do child savings accounts work, and what are my options?

While those are programs and proposals where the government funds savings, there are many options for savings or investment vehicles funded by yourself, designed to help parents (or grandparents) save for higher educational expenses. Some programs also allow children to use the money to open a business or to make a down payment on a home.

Plans, such as 529 and Roth IRA, also offer tax savings advantages as long as you use the earnings for college expenses. Here's a breakdown of some of the most popular options:

529 plans

This is a tax-advantaged investment account, where you invest after-tax earnings in ETFs, mutual funds or age-based portfolios. The benefit of this approach is that earnings grow tax-deferred, and as long as you withdraw funds for educational expenses, you won't pay federal tax on them.

This is the best option as you receive federal tax breaks (many states offer them too), and your child can use this money for trade schools, graduate programs and some college expenses overseas. Single filers can contribute up to $19,000, while married filing jointly couples can contribute up to $38,000 annually. You can do more in either instance, but it will go against your lifetime gift and estate tax exclusion.

Read more: 529 Plans: Everything You Need to Know

Roth IRA

While this is primarily a vehicle for retirement savings, you can also use it wisely to fund your child's education. Withdraw your contributions tax-free and your earnings tax-free, provided they're used for higher education expenses. The only thing to consider is that annual contributions are capped at $7,500. Meanwhile, with 529 plans, you don't have annual limits.

Read more: Why Every Grandparent Should Consider a Custodial Roth IRA Now + Where to Save Your Kids' Cash

Coverdell Education Savings Account

These accounts work similarly to Roth IRAs in that you contribute post-tax money into self-directed investments like bonds, stocks and more. Unlike Roth IRAs, Coverdell caps maximum annual deposits at $2,000.

There are also income restrictions with these accounts. Single filers have to earn less than $95,000 to $110,000 or more, whereas if you're married filing jointly, you won't qualify if you earn between $190,000 to $220,000 or more.

There's also a new college savings program that all qualified parents should use.

Read more: Coverdell ESAs vs 529 Plans: Which Should You Choose?

What's the best way to save for my child's college education?

I recommended a blended approach. Definitely open a Trump Account if you qualify because it's a free $1,000. Even if that doesn't become your main account for saving for college, over time, that money can grow, giving your child more funds to use when the time arrives.

I also suggest a 529 plan. They're among the best savings vehicles for college due to their flexible investment choices and tax savings. To determine long-term goals and monthly savings targets, consult with your spouse, a trusted friend or a financial advisor, who can guide you on specific savings measurables. And don't forget to take advantage of any local programs, as they can make saving for college more within reach.

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Stocks were down on Wednesday after five days of record closes for the main equity indexes, as investors, traders and speculators stepped back to assess the broader market landscape amid still-simmering tensions in the Middle East. A continuing flow of solid earnings and economic data were also top of mind.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up 2.5% to $96.08 per barrel, as the U.S. and Iran launched attacks on each other overnight amid an uneasy ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

"Both sides are well aware of the clock ticking towards true shortages of petroleum products, but the brinkmanship continues," Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates observes. "The market has been looking past the energy issue, as it typically is focused on at least 6-12 months ahead. One way or another, the Strait has to be reopened by then."

Meanwhile, as Navellier notes, markets are focused on "incredibly strong earnings forecasts," including mid-20% bottom-line growth for the S&P 500 in 2026 and more growth in 2027. "The AI theme is generating massive spending," he explains, "and the offsetting risk of job replacement by smart software is now being questioned by recent labor statistics."

Indeed, Broadcom (AVGO, -0.5%), among the semiconductor stocks benefitting from the AI boom, is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter earnings after the closing bell this evening, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May jobs report before the opening bell on Friday.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2% at 50,687, the broad-based S&P 500 had lost 0.7% to 7,553, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was lower by 0.9% at 26,853.

PANW is the "Wemby" of cybersecurity stocks

Palo Alto Networks (PANW, -5.6%) beat analyst expectations for revenue and earnings, and management boosted full-year guidance. But cybersecurity stocks struggled Wednesday amid a broader pullback for software on renewed fears about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on companies that write code.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said it was a "Wembanyama-like" quarter, comparing Palo Alto Networks to 7-foot-4-inch Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs, who will take on the New York Knicks in Game 1 of the NBA Finals after the closing bell tonight.

Ives reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price from $300 to $340, noting that Palo Alto Networks is too big not to get more deals as the cyber AI leader.

"PANW remains one of our favorite cyber names to own in 2026," Ives writes, "as we continue to believe the platformization approach is still in the early stages of playing out." The analyst sees the consolidation theme accelerating "as more enterprises turn to PANW for advanced cyber-AI solutions."

Is GME more than a meme stock?

GameStop (GME, +6.1%) might be the most notorious mid-cap stock in the market, known these days mostly for the memes rather than its operations. But the share price of the specialty retailer soared after management reported its highest-ever quarterly net income for the three months ended May 2.

Fiscal first-quarter profit grew to $389.6 million vs $44.8. Operating income was also a company record, $143.3 million vs an operating loss of $10.8 million a year ago. Management noted that year-over-year revenue growth of 14% was driven by collectibles sales.

GameStop also announced that its board of directors has approved a $2 billion, three-year stock buyback plan.

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In the aftermath of its failed hostile takeover of fellow consumer discretionary stock eBay (EBAY, -0.06%), GameStop claims cash, marketable securities, digital assets and related receivables, and collateral pledged for derivative assets of $9.7 billion.

In addition to raising GME's profile again with its unsolicited bid for EBAY, CEO Ryan Cohen has shifted GameStop's business model from video games to higher-margin collectibles, trading cards and other memorabilia.

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The May jobs report was released Friday morning, giving the Federal Reserve the latest update on the labor market ahead of its upcoming policy meeting slated for June 16-17.

The labor market is showing signs of resilience, with the U.S. adding 569,000 new jobs so far in 2026, or 113,800 per month on average.

This includes the 172,000 new jobs the U.S. added in May, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This blew past economists' consensus estimates for the addition of 80,000.

Leisure and hospitality saw the largest increase in job gains, adding 70,000 new positions, while local government was close behind with 55,000 new jobs. Healthcare (+35,000) and social services (+12,000) also saw notable job additions.

Financial services saw the biggest decline in jobs (-22,000), led by insurance companies and commercial banking.

Job gains for March (+29,000 to 214,000) and April (+64,000 to 179,000) were upwardly revised, too.

The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, remained unchanged at 4.3%, as expected.

The strong jobs reports "should dispel concerns at the Federal Reserve that the economy might be weakening," writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger jobs outlook, adding that rate cuts are off the table for the time being.

The Federal Reserve's next meeting is less than two weeks away, with its latest policy decision due out at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, June 17.

According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are widely expecting new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep interest rates unchanged this time around.

ADP jobs report comes in higher than expected

Wall Street got a glimpse of how things are going in the labor market on Wednesday morning with ADP's National Employment Report, which showed private payrolls rose by 122,000 in May — more than economists expected and more than the 101,000 jobs added in April.

"Hiring was more broad-based in May than we've seen in the last few years," says Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season."

Growth was seen across businesses of all sizes, though companies with 49 employees or less added the most positions (+67,000). As for industries, education and health services (+57,000) saw the largest increase in jobs last month, while trade, transportation, and utilities (+36,000) and professional and business services (+11,000) also experienced strong gains.

With the May jobs report on the books, we looked at what economists, strategists and other experts on Wall Street expect the data to show and what the results could mean for the Fed and investors going forward. You'll find these outlooks, edited at times for brevity, below.

What Wall Street has to say about the May jobs report

"Payroll Blowout! We've gained more and more confidence in the last prints that the Fed doesn't have to be worried about the labor market. Laser focused on inflation and it will all come down to the duration of this War to determine the Fed's next move. For now, the move is to not move: HOLD." - Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"Friday's jobs report was much stronger-than-expected and shows that the labor market is turning a corner after a rough past 12 months driven by fears of AI and uncertainty over geopolitics and tariffs. The revival of the labor market makes the Federal Reserve's job easier and allows it to keep rates steady in the meantime as it assesses the volatile inflation situation." - Glen Smith, Chief Investment Officer at GDS Wealth Management

"Today's numbers are consistent with other positive recent labor market indicators as well, such as better-than-expected job openings and declining layoffs. Employers appear to be looking past economic and financial uncertainties brought about by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East." - Jerry Tempelman, Former Senior Analyst at the NY Fed and VP of Economic and Fixed Income Research at Mutual of America Capital Management

"Today's upside surprise underscores ongoing economic resilience, but it will also likely keep the Fed — and the markets — focused on inflation pressures." - Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

"The labor market has strengthened and importantly broadened from its weak and narrow state in 2025, where non-cycle healthcare and the social assistance segment of the U.S. economy was responsible for all the job growth and more. The good news for the consumer is that the labor market is strong and Americans are employed. The concerning news for future spending is that real wages are negative as average hourly earnings have risen 3.4% YOY vs current inflation which is running at 3.8%. The Fed is likely to attempt to wait and see, but their focus is likely to shift to the inflation side of the mandate." - Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company

"It's going to be a tough start for Kevin Warsh. With the inflation and employment data where they are now the debate is quickly moving on from 'when will the Fed be able to cut' to 'why isn't the Fed hiking?!'. If the Fed moves from a dovish bias to a hawkish bias that will be a difficult transition for the markets to digest, and would likely trigger a renewed bout of volatility across asset classes." - Stephen Coltman, Head of Macro at 21shares

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If you use Microsoft Outlook, Teams or Microsoft 365 regularly, there's a new scam making the rounds that's worth paying attention to, especially because it doesn't look like the typical phishing attack people are used to spotting.

The FBI recently warned that cybercriminals are using a more sophisticated approach to trick people into handing over access to their Microsoft accounts. And unlike older scams filled with fake websites, spelling mistakes or suspicious links, this one can appear surprisingly legitimate at first glance.

Security experts say the scam is spreading because it's easier for cybercriminals to launch and harder for everyday users to recognize in the moment. Even people who use multi-factor authentication (MFA) can be vulnerable if they're tricked into approving a login request they didn't initiate.

Here's how the scam works, why it's different from traditional phishing attacks and what Microsoft users can do to better protect themselves.

How the Kali365 Microsoft scam works

The attack uses something called "device code phishing," which sounds technical but is actually fairly simple once you understand how it works.

Microsoft's device code login system is a legitimate feature designed for devices like smart TVs or streaming devices that don't have easy keyboards. Instead of typing a password directly on the device, users are given a short code to enter on a Microsoft login page from another device. Scammers are now exploiting that process.

According to the FBI, the scam typically starts with an email or Teams message pretending to be from a trusted service like SharePoint, OneDrive, Microsoft Teams or another document-sharing platform. The message often creates urgency by claiming you need to open a file, review a document or respond quickly to a request.

The victim is then instructed to visit a real Microsoft login page and enter a provided device code.

Because the website itself is legitimate, many people assume the request is safe. But entering that code actually authorizes the attacker's device to access the account. Once the victim completes the authentication process, the hacker can capture account tokens that allow ongoing access to Outlook, Teams, OneDrive and other Microsoft 365 services.

Why this phishing attack is harder to spot

Most people are taught to watch for phishing red flags like fake websites, misspelled company names or suspicious URLs. This attack avoids many of those warning signs because the Microsoft login page itself is real. That means someone could still fall victim even if they carefully check the web address.

Instead, scammers rely heavily on urgency and impersonation tactics. Messages may appear to come from coworkers, clients or familiar services asking you to quickly review a file or complete a login step.

Cybersecurity experts say this shift reflects how phishing scams are evolving. Rather than stealing passwords directly, attackers are increasingly trying to steal authenticated sessions or access tokens that let them stay signed in without repeatedly triggering password or MFA checks.

Can hackers really bypass MFA?

In a way, yes, but not because MFA itself is broken. The FBI says attackers are not technically defeating multi-factor authentication. Instead, victims are unknowingly approving the login themselves through the legitimate Microsoft process.

That’s an important distinction because MFA is still one of the best protections available and should not be turned off.

However, this scam shows that MFA alone is no longer enough if users are tricked into approving unauthorized access requests.

Security experts still recommend using authenticator apps instead of SMS text-message verification when possible because app-based MFA generally offers stronger protection against other types of phishing attacks.

Signs your Microsoft account may be compromised

One challenge with token-based attacks is that hackers can sometimes maintain access without immediately changing your password.

Still, there are a few warning signs that could indicate someone has gained access to your account:

• Unexpected MFA approval requests or login prompts
• Login alerts from unfamiliar devices or locations
• Emails sent from your Outlook account that you didn’t send
• Strange inbox rules, deleted emails or missing messages
• Password reset notifications you didn't request
• Unusual Teams activity or messages
• New connected apps or permissions you don’t recognize

The FBI also warns that attackers may maintain persistent access until suspicious sessions or tokens are manually revoked.

How to protect your Outlook and Microsoft 365 accounts

While scammers continue finding new ways to target users, a few habits can significantly reduce your risk.

Never enter a device code unless you initiated the login

This is one of the biggest takeaways from the FBI warning. If you receive an unexpected request asking you to enter a Microsoft device code, stop and verify the request independently before proceeding.

Be cautious with urgent Teams or email requests

Even if a message appears to come from someone you know, double-check unexpected requests involving logins, authentication approvals or document sharing.

Review active sessions and connected apps regularly

Microsoft accounts allow users to review signed-in devices and connected applications. Periodically checking for unfamiliar sessions or app permissions can help you spot suspicious activity earlier.

Turn on security alerts

Enable Microsoft security notifications so you receive alerts about suspicious logins, unusual activity or new devices accessing your account.

Use strong, unique passwords and a password manager

Even though this attack doesn’t rely on password theft, strong passwords still matter because attackers often combine multiple tactics.

What to do if you entered a suspicious device code

If you think you may have approved access for a scammer, act quickly.

The FBI recommends taking these steps immediately:

• Change your Microsoft password
• Signing out of all sessions can help invalidate authentication tokens attackers may be using to maintain access.
• Review and revoke any unfamiliar connected apps and permissions
• Review inbox forwarding rules for unauthorized changes
• Run antivirus or security scans on your devices
• Contact your employer’s IT department if it's a work account
• Monitor financial and personal accounts for suspicious activity

You can also report phishing attempts or suspicious activity to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) and through Microsoft’s security reporting tools.

Consider reducing your online footprint

Cybercriminals often use publicly available information to make phishing attacks appear more convincing. Data broker removal services such as Incogni and DeleteMe can help reduce the amount of personal information available online, including addresses, phone numbers and family relationships.

While these services won't remove a hacker's access to a compromised Microsoft account or stop a phishing attack already in progress, they may help reduce the amount of personal information criminals can use to impersonate trusted contacts or craft targeted scams.

Even as scammers evolve their tactics, awareness remains one of the most effective defenses. Understanding how device-code phishing works can help you recognize suspicious login requests and avoid granting access to attackers, even when the Microsoft login page itself is legitimate.

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Stocks got off to a rocky start Tuesday, but another day of strong gains for tech stocks lifted all three main equity indexes higher into the close. Energy stocks also gave a boost to the broader market as oil prices climbed for a second straight day.

At the close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% at 51,307, the broader S&P 500 added 0.1% to 7,609, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.03% to 27,093 — new all-time highs.

Meanwhile, amid no new headlines regarding the war in Iran, front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose more than 1% to settle at $93.69 per barrel.

This helped boost several energy stocks, including Chevron (CVX, +0.9%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, +0.1%).

Jensen Huang calls Marvell the "next trillion-dollar" stock

Marvell Technology (MRVL) was the best-performing S&P 500 stock today, surging 32.5% after Nvidia (NVDA, -0.7%) CEO Jensen Huang said he believes the chipmaker will be the "next trillion-dollar company."

Speaking at the Computex 2026 AI exhibition, Huang said that Marvell's networking and computing chips are essential to connecting all the pieces across data centers.

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"We've distributed and disaggregated computing so that it runs across these enormous clusters, so that we could get aggregating the total compute, the total memory, the total bandwidth that we have, and what makes it possible is connectivity," Huang added.

In late March, MRVL shares surged after Nvidia disclosed a $2 billion stake in the semiconductor stock — and longer term, it's up nearly fourfold in the past 12 months. But its current market cap is just above $254 billion, meaning its share price would need to quadruple to reach that $1 trillion mark.

Alphabet sinks on $80 billion stock offering

Not all AI stocks were higher today, though. Alphabet (GOOGL), which is technically a communication services stock, slumped 3.9% after the Google parent said it will raise $80 billion through an equity offering to fund its AI capital expenditures budget for this year and next.

GOOGL also said that it will sell $10 billion of Class A common stock and Class C capital stock (ticker: GOOG) to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) at a discount to where both are currently trading.

"Alphabet intends to use the net proceeds from the concurrent underwritten public offerings and the concurrent private placement for general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures to scale AI infrastructure and global compute," the company explained in its press release (PDF).

In April, Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to $180 billion to $190 billion and said it expects its 2027 spending to reach similar levels.

Alphabet's announcement "is raising concerns about high AI-related expenses against the backdrop of uncertain profitability profiles," says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. However, he notes that "strengthening confidence in a solid economy is countering those concerns."

JOLTS comes in higher than expected

One such sign of a stable economy came in the form of this morning's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed 7.6 million job openings in April — the highest level since May 2024 and more than economists expected.

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also showed that hires and separations both declined by roughly 400,000 in April.

"The sharp jump in job openings, combined with declining separations, points to robust employer demand for labor," write Raymond James economists. "This reinforces our view that the labor market is on track for further strength this year following last year's weakness."

The JOLTS data arrived ahead of this Friday's release of the May jobs report, which is expected to show the U.S. added between 75,000 and 85,000 new jobs last month.

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After weeks of intense budget negotiations, New Yorkers are in for a payout in 2026.

More than 8 million residents will receive hundreds of dollars in relief this fall, due to the Protecting Our Wallets Energy Rebate (POWER) program, a new initiative designed to combat surging gas and electric bills in the state.

Checks will be sent automatically to qualifying New York residents.

"We know New Yorkers need some relief," Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a press briefing regarding the program. "...The bills are just getting higher and higher, and it is so discouraging for our families."

But the POWER rebate is only one piece of a larger $268.1 billion puzzle. The finalized 2026-2027 New York budget introduces several targeted and localized changes to the state's tax landscape.

From a tipped income exemption for workers to a controversial new "pied-à-terre" tax on luxury New York City real estate, these provisions are intended to reshape New York's affordability — even as the state faces a staggering $34.3 billion cumulative structural budget gap through 2029.

Here's the breakdown of how the new budget might impact your wallet.

Who qualifies for a New York State rebate check?

Roughly $1 billion in rebates will be sent starting in September 2026. To be eligible, a taxpayer must be a full-time resident and not claimed as a dependent. No application is necessary.

The POWER rebates are also based on 2024 state tax filings. How much you receive depends on your state adjusted gross income (AGI) and filing status for that tax year.

Below is a table outlining the 2026 New York POWER check amounts:

Targeted relief for NY families, workers, and older adults

Beyond one-time checks, the budget also introduced a few long-term adjustments offering more potential savings for New Yorkers.

• Expanded childcare: The state is investing $1.5 billion to expand its Child Care Assistance Program (CCAP) by raising income eligibility limits to include more families and capping weekly copayments. Through instituting the $15 weekly caps, an eligible family currently paying $300 per week could see their annual expenses drop by over $14,000.
• Tax-free tips: Starting in 2026, New York will eliminate income taxes on the first $25,000 of tipped wages for those earning under $150k (similar to the federal "no tax on tips" deduction). This could save service workers — from servers to stylists — roughly $189 per person in annual state income taxes, according to state data and Kiplinger's analysis.*
• Older adult property tax relief: The state authorized an expansion of the Senior Citizen Homeowners' Exemption (SCHE) to $75,000 (up from $50,000). So, for example, if you're newly qualified for the homestead exemption and have a 2.5% property tax rate, you could save about $500 on your next property tax bill. (Yet, not all tax jurisdictions may adopt the exemption, and the percentage of your property tax bill that qualifies could differ depending on income.)

However, despite the state having the funds to support these initiatives, the New York State Comptroller forecasts a cumulative structural deficit of about $34.3 billion through 2029 due to federal cuts from the Trump administration, coupled with state Medicaid and education spending.

Additionally, New York City's structural deficit is projected to be $10.4 billion in 2027. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has previously advocated for higher taxes on high earners to address the city's deficit. The new real estate surcharges included in the state's budget might just deliver.

The 'millionaire's' second-home tax in New York City

As part of the 2027 New York budget, Hochul and Mamdani have introduced an annual surcharge targeting New York City's high-end secondary market, specifically homes valued at $5 million or higher. This new "pied-à-terre" tax on non-primary residences will be in addition to annual property tax bills.

Here's how it'll work. Starting July 1, 2026, co-ops and condos will be taxed using the city’s current "assessed values" framework, starting with properties valued at $1 million or more. Single-family homes will use a lower annual tax rate for properties valued at $5 million. After two years, co-ops and condos will then switch to the lower single-family home framework.

Here's the math in action:

Here's how it could affect you. According to state officials, a single-family home assessed at $11.5 million would pay about $92,300 annually under the new tax law. In total, this second home tax is expected to cost some luxury homeowners about $500 million annually until the provision expires in 2031 (unless renewed by state lawmakers).

'Pied-à-terre' tax critics and budgetary concerns

New York is home to "the highest concentration of extreme wealth in the nation," according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP). At the same time, New York City has a 25% overall poverty rate, according to Robin Hood, which is higher than it has ever been.

Some state and city officials see the new second-home tax as a means to bridge New York City's wealth gap and the state's structural deficit in one go.

However, critics of the plan argue that the tax will weaken the city's economy rather than improve affordability.

"It will not raise the amount of revenue expected." James Whelan, President of the Real Estate Board of New York, reportedly wrote to Business Insider. "[It will] eliminate thousands of construction jobs, lower property values, and raise costs for New Yorkers."

• Recent reports from the U.S. Census Bureau mark New York property tax bills as among the highest in the nation, with a median bill of $6,542.
• The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also reports that the average prices for essential goods and services in the state, like food, transportation, and healthcare, are about 8% above the national average (ranking New York as the fifth most expensive state to live in overall by these metrics).

Fiscal watchdogs caution that $268 billion in spending could outpace inflation for New Yorkers.

"The budget increases State Operating Funds spending by at least 8 percent," the Citizens Budget Commission of New York (CBCNY) reported after the budget's release. "[This pushes] decade-long spending growth over $30 billion above inflation."

Yet even with budgetary concerns, New York State currently boasts a $2.5 trillion economy, ranking as the third-largest state economy in the U.S., according to the BEA.

This means the state generates about 7.9% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and recent projections for New York City's economic growth track around 1.7% annually, roughly in line with national U.S. GDP projections.

Bottom line for your wallet

For the average New Yorker, the 2027 budget might present a mixed bag of immediate relief and long-term questions.

If you are a working parent or a service industry professional, the combination of the POWER rebate, the childcare cap, and the tax-free tips could represent a significant relief in your monthly household costs for the coming year.

However, for the real estate industry and high-net-worth individuals, the pied-à-terre tax might signal a shift toward more aggressive wealth redistribution to patch a looming multi-billion-dollar deficit.

Ultimately, the $100 to $200 hitting your mailbox this fall could be a helpful bridge, but not quite a cure for the state's high cost of living. Whether New York's economic output can continue to outpace inflation — and whether the new NYC luxury taxes will drive away wealthier individuals — remains to be seen. Stay tuned.

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To help you understand the trends surrounding business and technology and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.) You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here's the latest…

The information technology sector has been on a tear of late, supercharged by the AI spending spree. But now the IT sector faces headwinds that will put certain projects on hold.

Rising IT prices are starting to hamper overall spending

Spending raced ahead in the first half of this year as companies upgraded fleets of PCs and sales of smartphones surged, according to a recent presentation by IDC, a tech market research firm. Much of that spending was to get ahead of anticipated IT inflation and won’t be repeated in the second half.

Rising prices will be a drag on overall IT spending for the rest of the year, hitting IT consulting, HR software, laptops and other areas.

"Buyers continue to navigate an environment where cost pressure is really coming from every direction at the same time," said Stephen Minton, vice president at IDC, during the presentation.

Even before the Iran war sent oil prices higher, several issues challenged the IT sector, including tariffs, geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty. “All of those risk factors are really inflationary,” Minton said.

AI and cybersecurity are the exception to the rule

Spending on artificial intelligence and cybersecurity won’t let up, though: The two big exceptions to any IT belt tightening. Big Tech will keep spending on data centers, but they may have to defer some of their expansion plans into 2027 because of hardware costs.

Memory prices have absolutely skyrocketed, causing Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft to fork over substantially more money for the memory chips needed in AI data centers. When it comes to the semiconductor sector, ’Memflation’ will destroy, or at least delay, non-AI demand into 2028, to varying degrees depending on the application,” said Rajeev Rajput, an analyst at Gartner, in an April press release.

Businesses will keep investing in AI, too, but with a bigger focus on seeing a clear return on investment, on a faster timeline. "We are at a point where measurable business value needs to be provided in order to continue with the rate of IT spending growth that we've had in the last couple of years," said Minton.

Meanwhile, all the geopolitical turmoil spells more cybersecurity spending, as threats keep rising. Security spending “really benefits from geopolitical disruption,” said Minton. That benefits cybersecurity vendors such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet and Zscaler.

IDC now expects IT spending growth will be significantly weaker this year than in 2025. However, there’s still an expectation that spending growth picks up again in 2027.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Touted by the Trump administration as "eliminating taxes on Social Security," the new, temporary "senior bonus deduction" is adding to concerns about Social Security's solvency, even as a COLA increase is expected for the coming year.

When President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress passed the so-called "big beautiful bill" last year, one of the most talked-about provisions was a new, but temporary, bonus deduction for older adults.

The $6,000 tax break, available to eligible taxpayers age 65 or older from 2025 through 2028, can be stacked on top of the standard deduction and the extra standard deduction for those over 65 and is available to those who itemize deductions. Yes, there are income phaseouts.

Still, the Trump administration has pointed to the deduction as a windfall for seniors, effectively eliminating taxes on Social Security. (No, the 2025 Trump tax bill doesn't change Social Security tax law and doesn't necessarily eliminate SS taxes. However, in many cases, the deduction can reduce taxable income enough for some to effectively exempt Social Security income from tax.)

But…what if that benefit could weaken Social Security's finances?

That's an emerging concern: a policy marketed as eliminating taxes on Social Security could worsen the system's long-term funding gap and perhaps affect the timing of future benefit reductions.

Curious? Here's more of what you need to know.

How the $6K senior deduction interacts with Social Security taxes

Let's start with some facts.

• The $6,000 senior deduction doesn’t affect the payroll tax (12.4% levy split between workers and their employers) that funds Social Security.
• Neither the 2025 tax bill nor the new over-65 bonus deduction changes the rule that allows the IRS to tax up to 85% of Social Security benefits depending on income.

However, the senior bonus deduction can lower taxable income for millions of older adults. That can, in turn, push some retirees below the thresholds at which their Social Security benefits become taxable, reducing the amount of tax paid by those who remain above them.

So, what's the big deal? Well, federal income taxes on Social Security benefits are credited to the Social Security trust funds. That revenue stream is small compared with the amount that comes from payroll taxes, but it is part of the program’s long-term financing picture.

Why Social Security solvency concerns are resurfacing now

Concern about the potential impacts of the senior bonus deduction on Social Security is surfacing against a backdrop of projections from the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary.

• Current estimates are that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will be depleted around 2033.
• At that point, incoming payroll taxes would cover roughly 77% to 80% of scheduled benefits, depending on assumptions.
• So, even before any new tax policy impacts are considered, that implies a potential across-the-board benefit reduction of about 20% to 23% unless Congress intervenes.

From a tax perspective, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has estimated that the $6,000 senior tax break could initially (through 2029) reduce federal revenues by roughly $91 billion. The 10-year costs could fall in the $125 to $220 billion range by 2034, depending on whether the provision is extended.

That figure includes several moving parts, but part of the revenue loss stems from reducing the tax treatment of retirement income, including Social Security benefits.

Because federal taxes paid on Social Security benefits are credited to the program’s trust funds, lower taxable income can also mean less money flowing into the system over time.

Important to note: Social Security’s financial challenges are driven primarily by demographics, not this new deduction. The system’s long-term funding gap already existed well before the Trump/GOP reconciliation tax package became law.

But that’s also why some analysts are paying attention to even relatively modest revenue changes around the edges. In a program already facing long-term fiscal pressure, policies that reduce money flowing into the trust fund — even indirectly — can affect projections at the margins.

And that’s where some irony comes in: a policy promoted as delivering tax relief tied to Social Security could potentially slightly weaken one of the revenue streams tied to the program’s long-term finances.

How much could the $6,000 deduction shift the Social Security depletion timeline?

In situations where revenue tied to benefit taxation is reduced, some long-range projections suggest the depletion date could move sooner by a matter of months to roughly a year. How much earlier depends on various assumptions about economic growth, payroll tax receipts, and behavioral responses.

That doesn't necessarily change the trajectory of Social Security’s finances. And it doesn't create insolvency on its own or replace the structural drivers of the system’s funding imbalance.

But it highlights how even seemingly small changes in related revenue sources (like reduced tax collections resulting from a new $6,000 tax break for millions of older adults) can affect the timing of trust fund exhaustion in models that already show a narrow runway.

What this means for retirees now

For many older adults, the senior bonus deduction is a relatively straightforward tax cut:

Taxpayers age 65 or older can stack the $6,000 deduction on top of the standard deduction and the existing extra standard deduction for those 65-plus. Eligible taxpayers who itemize can also claim the bonus deduction.

• You must be 65 or older by the end of the given tax year.
• The bonus amount tops out at $6,000 for individuals and $12,000 for married couples, when both spouses are 65 or older.
• This deduction phases out above a certain income level: Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for those married, filing jointly. It phases out completely for MAGI above $175,000 and $250,000, respectively.
• The IRS says you must "include the Social Security Number of the qualifying individual(s) on the return, and file jointly if married, to claim the deduction."

For some middle- and upper-middle-income retirees, the new deduction can reduce or even eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits by lowering taxable income. For lower-income retirees who already pay little or no federal income tax, the impact is often much smaller.

• Middle- and upper-middle-income seniors will likely account for roughly three-quarters of the total tax relief under the measure, according to the Tax Policy Center.
• In 2026, average savings are projected at about $220 for middle-income households and around $300 for those in the upper-middle income tier.

Keep in mind: Despite how the Trump administration has framed the policy, the deduction does not change Social Security tax law or permanently eliminate taxes on benefits. Instead, it works indirectly by reducing the amount of income exposed to taxation in the first place. So keeping an eye on your taxable income and existing SS tax thresholds remains important.

What's next? Funding conversations for Congressional lawmakers.

Potential ways to address the Social Security funding issues floated by policymakers in recent years include raising payroll taxes, lifting or eliminating the income cap, gradually increasing the retirement age, reducing cost-of-living adjustments, and means-testing benefits for higher-income retirees.

But...no specific bipartisan proposal seems to be on deck yet, so as always, stay tuned.

Learn More

• How the $6,000 Senior Bonus Deduction Works
• What You Need to Know About Taxes on Social Security Benefits
• College Towns Are Becoming Retirement Destinations in 2026: Does the Tax Math Add Up for Retirees?
• The Extra Standard Deduction for Those Age 65 and Older

Stocks were choppy Monday as market participants weighed a continued rise in tech stocks against reports that a potential peace plan in the Middle East is in peril.

Wall Street is also looking ahead to Friday's key jobs report — the first of Kevin Warsh's stewardship at the Federal Reserve — which lands two weeks before the June Fed meeting.

Nvidia (NVDA, +6.3%) wowed Wall Street over the weekend, with the artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether unveiling a new processor chip for PCs. The new superchip, RTX Spark, will integrate designs from Arm Holdings (ARM) — sending its shares soaring 15.7% to start the week.

Fellow Dow Jones stock Microsoft (MSFT, +2.3%), who Nvidia is collaborating with on its new chip, also climbed on the news, while chipmaker Intel (INTC, -4.7%) slumped.

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated his Buy rating on NVDA following its appearance at the 2026 Computex AI exhibition this weekend and said it remains a top pick.

"Overall, we see a continued strengthening of NVDA's systems moat and expanding [its] serviceable addressable market from GPU racks to CPUs, networking/optics, storage/security, enterprise software and now personal AI PC," says Arya.

Trump responds after Iran calls off peace plan, shuts Strait of Hormuz

The big rally in the technology sector helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.4% to 27,086), the broader S&P 500 (+0.3% to 7,599), and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.09% to 51,078) close at new record highs, but gains were contained on revamped geopolitical worries.

Iranian media reported on Monday that Tehran will stop negotiating with the U.S. via intermediaries and will close the Strait of Hormuz in reaction to Israel's military attacks on Lebanon, which it says are ceasefire violations.

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President Donald Trump attempted some damage control this afternoon, posting on Truth Social that talks with Iran "are continuing, at a rapid pace," and noting that after talking with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, "there will be no Troops going to Beirut."

Still, oil prices took a notable jump higher to start the week, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbing more than 5% to settle at $92.16 per barrel.

Berkshire unveils its latest big buy

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) surged 22.3% after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -0.9%) said it would buy the homebuilder for $72.50 per share — a 24% premium to its May 29 close.

The all-cash deal, which represents an enterprise value of roughly $8.5 billion, will combine Taylor Morrison with manufactured homebuilder Clayton Homes, which Berkshire bought in 2003, to create a top-five U.S. builder by volume.

UBS Global Research analyst John Lovallo views the acquisition as "a strong vote of confidence in the mid-long term outlook for the homebuilding industry, including what we estimate to be a market that is underbuilt by roughly 7 million units."

The transaction is expected to close in the second half of this year.

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In the wake of large IRS budget cuts and the significant loss of its workforce, is the agency turning into a paper tiger?

Since President Trump began his second term in office, IRS funding has declined precipitously, and there has been a sharp drop in personnel. Congress set the IRS's fiscal year 2026 budget at $11.2 billion, 9% less than the IRS's 2025 fiscal year funding, and House appropriators want to slash it further, to $10.2 billion for 2027. Additionally, the IRS has lost over 20% of its workers since January 2025 through voluntary deferred resignations and layoffs, with even more departures expected this year.

And there's been lots of chaos at the top leadership at the IRS over the past 17 months. The IRS is on its seventh commissioner since January 1, 2025. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, is also the nominal head of the IRS. But Frank Bisignano oversees all day-to-day operations at the agency. As chief executive officer of the IRS, he essentially acts as the de facto commissioner. Bisignano is doing double duty. He is also the commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Many other high-level officials have also left the IRS.

The IRS's enforcement arm is feeling the brunt of the personnel and funding cuts. Congress has rescinded most of the IRS's $80 billion windfall from 2022's Inflation Reduction Act. And some of the biggest drops in the agency's employee headcount are from its examination and collection groups. The IRS has lost one-in-four of its enforcement workers through voluntary deferred resignations, retirement and layoffs. Many of them were experienced agents and managers with deep knowledge. This lost know-how will be hard to replenish with those employees who remain. And it will only get worse for the IRS. For instance, the Trump administration's fiscal year 2027 budget request for the IRS includes an additional 18% cut in enforcement activities and projects fewer than 25,000 total enforcement employees.

How is the IRS's budget and personnel cuts impacting IRS audits? The overall number of audits is declining. In recent years, the IRS audit rate for individuals was significantly below 1% (for example, the audit rate for 2018 individual returns was 0.3%), and we expect this figure to continue to go down, at least over the next few years.

Many filers are now escaping the audit anvil because of scarcer audit resources. Two prime examples are high-income individuals and partnerships. The number of IRS audits of individuals with $10 million or more of income has fallen from 6,786 in fiscal year 2025 to 2,264 in fiscal year 2026. The number of IRS audits of partnerships has also declined from 3,174 in fiscal year 2025 to 2,932 in fiscal year 2026. The IRS forecasts even further declines in these audits in fiscal year 2027.

AI will help the IRS filter its audit targets

But this does not mean it is a free-for-all for tax cheats. According to leaders at the IRS, there will be fewer overall audits, but the exams that are done will be more targeted.

Data analytics and artificial intelligence use are increasingly the norm in the IRS's enforcement arsenal. Data-mining software can sift through taxpayer data, expose suspicious activity and identify cases for audit. The IRS is relying more than ever on this technology to more precisely identify high-risk noncompliance and to improve efficiency.

We also expect that the IRS will go after low-hanging fruit. One example is refundable credits, such as the earned income credit, American Opportunity credit, the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit, and the refundable portion of the child tax credit. Most of these audits are done through correspondence, meaning the taxpayer never meets with an IRS employee. They're a bit more cost-effective, since the audit is generally limited to only one or two issues. The IRS also knows that there is lots of money lost each year to erroneous claims of refundable tax credits. The IRS estimated it improperly paid $21.4 billion in refundable credits in fiscal year 2024 alone.

Taxpayers with income-matching discrepancies will also be a prime target of the IRS. The IRS's automated underreporting program matches data on information returns, such as Forms W-2 and 1099, with income amounts reported on individual tax returns. If there is a significant mismatch, the IRS will alert the taxpayer to the issue by sending out a computer-generated CP2000 notice.

High-income nonfilers have been on the list of the IRS's enforcement priorities in recent years, and we expect this trend to continue. The primary emphasis is on individuals who received income in excess of $100,000 but didn't file a tax return.

The IRS will continue to go after abusive tax schemes that it includes on its annual Dirty Dozen tax scams. For 2026, these include:

• Bogus self-employment tax credit promotions
• Overstated withholding
• Abusive noncash charitable contribution schemes, many of them involving the donations of conservation easements
• Refundable tax credits for abusive undistributed long-term capital gains on Form 2439 by investors in real estate investment trusts and mutual funds
• Misleading tax breaks touted on social media: (1) one scheme encourages employees to take the sick and family leave credit, (2) another uses Schedule H, Household Employment Taxes, to seek false refunds, and (3) a third urges filers to claim the fuel tax credit.

There are also audit red flags that could increase the chance of the IRS pulling your return for examination. We'll briefly describe a few of these red flags.

• Taking higher than average deductions. If the deductions, losses, or credits on your return are disproportionately large compared with your income, the IRS may want to take a second look at your return.
• Claiming large charitable deductions. If your charitable deductions are disproportionately large compared with your income, it raises a red flag. Also targeted are conservation easement donations and taxpayers who fail to comply with the substantiation requirements. You can find information on the substantiation rules for charitable donations in IRS Publication 526.  
• Claiming substantial business losses or large deductions on Schedule C.
• Deducting a hobby loss on Schedule C, especially if you have multiple years of losses from the activity and have lots of income from other sources.
• Deducting large rental losses on Schedule C. The IRS is pulling returns of individuals who claim they are real estate professionals and whose W-2 forms or other non-real-estate Schedule C businesses show lots of income.

This first appeared in The Kiplinger Tax Letter. It helps you navigate the complex world of tax by keeping you up-to-date on new and pending changes in tax laws, providing tips to lower your business and personal taxes, and forecasting what the White House and Congress might do with taxes. Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Tax Letter or subscribe.

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Stocks were choppy Friday as market participants awaited updates on negotiations with Iran. A continued rally in tech stocks kept the price action positive into the close, with all three main equity indexes ending the week at new all-time highs.

Following news on Thursday that the U.S. and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, President Donald Trump on Friday said via a Truth Social post that he is making "a final determination" on a Middle East peace plan. According to Trump, Iran must agree to "never have a Nuclear Weapon or bomb" and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "immediately."

The latest update sent oil prices sliding again, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures falling 1.7% to $87.36 per barrel — their lowest settlement since mid-April. For all of May, oil prices tumbled 17%, marking their worst monthly performance since early 2020, according to FactSet.

As for equities, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 51,032, the broader S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 7,580, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% to 26,972 — fresh record closing highs. All three also finished notably higher for the week and the month.

Dell soars 33% after earnings

Tech stocks continued their march higher, with Dell Technologies' (DELL) 32.8% post-earnings pop giving the sector a boost today.

The PC maker saw its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings more than triple year over year and its revenue surge 88%, thanks to strong demand for its AI-optimized servers.

Dell also gave fiscal Q2 and full-year guidance that blew away analysts' estimates. "DELL believes it is well positioned within the generative AI opportunity, given its unique position both in the enterprise IT market and in the PC space," writes Argus Research analyst Jim Kelleher, who raised his price target on Dell to $460 from $200 after earnings.

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And for all of fiscal 2027, the analyst expects "Infrastructure growth driven by AI acceleration and improving AI PC sales to meaningfully offset margin pressure from higher memory costs."

One stakeholder that was widely cited as a big winner from today's price move is President Trump, who, according to ethics filings, bought $1 million to $5 million in DELL shares in early February — not long after a commitment from Michael and Susan Dell to fund Trump Accounts with a $6.25 billion gift.

Costco drops after bottom-line miss

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Costco Holdings (COST) fell 3.9% after the warehouse club retailer disclosed its fiscal third-quarter results.

For the three months ended May 10, Costco said earnings rose 15% year over year to $4.93 per share, while revenue was up 12% to $70.5 billion. While COST missed on the bottom line, its top line exceeded estimates.

The company also said same-store sales rose 6.6% and membership fees were up 10.5%.

"Costco's latest earnings report is a classic reminder that even Wall Street's absolute darlings aren't immune to their own sky-high expectations," says David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors.

Wagner adds that the retailer "remains an absolute powerhouse" and "the fact that consumers are still flocking to its warehouses and flooding its digital channels proves that Costco's value proposition is practically bulletproof in this choppy economic climate."

Today's pullback for the consumer staples stock, which is still up 11% for the year to date, is what Wagner calls "a well-deserved breather."

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Stocks opened lower Thursday as market participants took in the latest inflation update, but quickly turned higher on reports of an extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. A continued rally in tech stocks also kept the bulls in charge, with the three main indexes ending the day at new highs.

Ahead of the open, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose 0.4% from March to April and was 3.8% higher compared to the year prior.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year.

The monthly readings came in below economists' expectations, though the annual increases remain well above the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%.

"Inflation pressures continue," says Adam Hetts, global head of Multi-Asset and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. "As year-on-year headline and core measures continue to read well into the 3% range, above the Fed's comfort zone, a critical factor in the forward path may well be the duration of elevated oil prices as the Middle East conflict continues."

However, encouraging news on the geopolitical front briefly sent oil prices to their lowest level since mid-April today, though front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eventually settled slightly higher at $88.90 per barrel.

As for stocks, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended up 0.9% at 26,917, the broader S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 7,563, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.05% to 50,668 — new all-time closing highs.

Snowflake has its biggest one-day gain ever

Snowflake (SNOW) underscored another big day for tech stocks Thursday, with shares soaring 36.5% — their best day ever — after the cloud-based AI and data platform reported fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings and revenue beats.

The company cited artificial intelligence as a "powerful tailwind," and said it has 779 customers spending more than $1 million on a trailing 12-month basis.

"SNOW's new AI products — Cortex Code and Snowflake Intelligence — were key upside drivers," says Mizuho Americas analyst Gregg Moskowitz. "We continue to believe that healthy consumption activity, along with secular trends driving enterprises to modernize their data estates, set up SNOW for sustained momentum."

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Moskowitz believes Snowflake has "multiple emerging upside vectors — including several new products and an improving go-to-market" strategy that should accelerate growth for a company that has improving fundamentals and a reasonable valuation.

In separate announcements, Snowflake said it signed a $6 billion multi-year infrastructure commitment with Amazon Web Services and that it will acquire AI agents platform Natoma.

Dollar Tree has its best day in 4 years after earnings

Dollar Tree (DLTR) disclosed its fiscal first-quarter earnings report ahead of Thursday's open, reporting earnings of $1.74 per share (+38.1% year over year) on revenue of $5.0 billion (+7.2% YoY). Wall Street was calling for earnings of $1.56 per share on revenue of $5.0 billion.

DLTR also saw better-than-expected same-store sales growth of 3.5% and gave upbeat guidance.

The results sent the consumer staples stock up 17.9% — its best day since 2022 — but some on Wall Street are still worried.

"We believe that DLTR has been oversold recently, but remain on the sidelines over the medium to long term," says Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma, who has a Market Perform (Hold) rating on the retail stock. "Near term, the key metrics to watch include whether DLTR manages to return to positive traffic growth and how much freight cost headwinds vs. tariff refunds/further tariff uncertainties will impact margins."

And Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe, who has an Underperform (Sell) rating on DLTR, says that while it was a good quarter, he remains "cautious about the traffic trend" and consumer demand due to higher gas prices.

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The IRS may revise its CP53E notices after months of taxpayer backlash and practitioner complaints.

During a recent meeting with tax practitioners, the IRS Chief of Taxpayer Services said the agency may consider changes to the notices in light of widespread confusion, according to nonprofit publication Tax Notes (paywall).

As Kiplinger has reported, hundreds of thousands of CP53E notices tied to direct deposit verification have reportedly been sent, and by some estimates, several million. In either case, those numbers represent a significant share of taxpayers hearing from the IRS during filing season.

The notices are part of the tax agency's broader effort to shift more refunds to electronic direct deposit and phase out paper checks — a modernization push designed to improve efficiency and lower fraud risk.

But the rollout has become somewhat controversial, as many recipients believed the letters were scams or sent with nefarious intent.

The stakes aren't trivial. Average federal tax refunds for the 2026 filing season hovered just above the mid-$3,000s, and surveys show that most taxpayers planned to use their refunds to cover essentials and pay down debt. So delays can tie up household cash flow.

What IRS notice CP53E means

The CP53E notice is generally issued when the IRS cannot process a refund via direct deposit because:

• Bank account information is missing or incorrect
• Financial institution details were rejected
• Post-filing adjustments result in a refund being issued after changes to a return

Taxpayers are typically instructed to log in to their IRS online account within 30 days to update their banking information. If they don't respond, the IRS says it will issue a paper check. Though that can add roughly 6 weeks to the processing time, depending on timing and agency workload.

Does the IRS use QR codes?

Some tax professionals and taxpayers reported receiving CP53E letters in situations where:

• Refunds had already been received
• No refund was expected
• Taxpayers actually owed money to the IRS

On practitioner forums and social media platforms, some described situations in which CP53E notices reportedly appeared before other notices related to IRS tax return adjustments that would have explained an unexpected refund.

The format of the notices added to the confusion, as some taxpayers reported being unsure about the validity of QR codes and instructions directing them to log in to their IRS online accounts.

Those CP53E scam fears stood out, since IRS impersonation scams have become increasingly common.

Adding to the confusion? The toll-free phone number listed in the notice contains recorded explanations regarding the notice and doesn't connect taxpayers to a live customer service agent at the IRS.

ID.me access concerns

The CP53E notice seems to have also revived criticism of the IRS’s online account system and its reliance on ID.me identity verification.

On social media, some taxpayers said they felt pressured to create online IRS accounts or complete third-party identity verification to resolve refund issues within tight response windows.

One Reddit user described waiting for ID.me verification while the 30-day response deadline ticked down, writing that “having a 3rd party stand between me and my refund feels silly.”

Another practitioner told Kiplinger that she and several of her clients received the CP53E notices, and that some of those clients owed taxes, leading her to believe the IRS might be trying to prompt taxpayers to sign up for IRS online accounts.

The IRS hasn't said the notices were intended to increase adoption of online accounts or ID.me, but updated FAQ materials direct users experiencing access issues toward identity verification support resources.

IRS updates CP53E FAQs due to confusion

Worth noting: the IRS updated its FAQ guidance on CP53E notices.

The agency clarified that the letters are legitimate IRS correspondence and that QR codes included in the notices are intended to direct taxpayers to official IRS online account services, not third-party websites.

The guidance also walks taxpayers through how to confirm a notice’s authenticity by logging directly into IRS.gov rather than using embedded links or scanning codes. The tax agency reiterates that taxpayers will never be asked to provide sensitive information through QR codes or unsolicited text links.

The Taxpayer Advocate Service (TAS) issued separate guidance reinforcing that CP53E notices should be verified on IRS.gov or through official IRS accounts, and that taxpayers who believe they received a notice in error can cross-check their refund status directly using IRS tools before taking action.

TAS also emphasized basic scam-avoidance, including not clicking unfamiliar QR codes or links from unconfirmed notices.

Getting an IRS letter: What happens next

No formal redesign of the notice has been announced yet, so for now, the IRS says the safest approach is to verify your IRS status directly through your official IRS online account.

And remember: Every taxpayer's situation is different, so if you need professional advice on how to respond to a CP53E or other IRS notice, it's a good idea to consult a tax professional.

Overall, the situation highlights a significant challenge for the IRS: modernizing a system that processes hundreds of millions of tax returns and billions of dollars in refunds each year while maintaining trust in its communications with millions of taxpayers.

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The main stock indexes struggled for big gains on Wednesday, though a positive showing suggests investors, traders and speculators are generally in a "risk on" mood amid optimism about the long-term durability of the market's major theme. The geopolitical landscape is still rocky, but the earnings environment remains healthy.

The White House rapid response team described a draft peace plan that was reported by Iranian state TV and would open the Strait of Hormuz as a "complete fabrication" and "not true." At the same time, President Donald Trump told PBS News that Iran won't get relief from economic sanctions in exchange for its highly enriched uranium. "No, no, not at all. Not sanctions relief, no," the president answered when PBS asked about the status of a key point in negotiations to end the war.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract traded as low as $87.17 per barrel and closed down 4.7% for the day at $89.47. WTI traded as high as $119.48 on March 9, its intraday peak during the war in the Middle East.

The 2-year Treasury yield, a market-based gauge of short-term policy on interest rates, was down 1.7 basis points to 4.033% today vs 4.05% on Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield, a starting point for mortgage rates and corporate bonds, fell 1.4 basis points to 4.447% from 4.491%.

At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4% at 50,644, the broad-based S&P 500 had added 0.02% to 7,520, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.07% at 26,674.

Goldman sets year-end target of 8,000 for the S&P 500

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs strategists raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,600. "Continued earnings growth should drive continued equity market upside," the strategists write. "The increased return forecast reflects increased estimates for S&P 500 earnings following an exceptionally strong first-quarter reporting season."

The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks closed lower but has added more than 17% year to date vs a gain of about 10% for the S&P 500 amid enduring appetite for riskier companies. Consumer discretionary stocks and consumer staples stocks were the top two sectors on Wednesday, both groups posting gains of greater than 1%.

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Technology and energy stocks joined financials and utility stocks in the red. Nvidia (NVDA, -1.1%) was one of three Magnificent 7 stocks to post a loss, joining Microsoft (MSFT, -0.8%) and Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.01%).

Amazon.com (AMZN, +2.5%), Apple (AAPL, +0.8%), Meta Platforms (META, +3.7%) and Tesla (TSLA, +1.6%) were up for the day.

Honeywell's Quantinuum files for an IPO

Honeywell (HON, -0.07%) was among 10 Dow Jones stocks in negative territory after its majority-owned subsidiary Quantinuum submitted paperwork to the Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering (IPO).

Quantinuum plans to sell approximately 21.1 million shares at $45 to $50 per share, for estimated proceeds of $941.7 million at the midpoint of the offering and $1.09 billion if underwriters exercise their full allotments.

Quantinuum plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol QNT. Its market cap, assuming the IPO proceeds as expected, would approach $13 billion, making it the biggest pure-play quantum computing offering of 2026.

Quantinuum was founded in 2021 through the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and UK-based startup Cambridge Quantum. Its customers include Amgen (AMGN, +0.03%) and JPMorgan (JPM, -2.5%).

Honeywell is Quantinuum's biggest shareholder, at approximately 54%. Other strategic investors include Amgen and JPMorgan, as well as Mitsui (MITSY, -4.2%) and Nvidia.

Zscaler has execution issues

Zscaler (ZS, -31.5%) was a major drag on Nasdaq-100 ETFs and mutual funds after management reported expectations-beating fiscal 2026 third-quarter results but underwhelmed Wall Street with its forward guidance.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says it's a matter of execution at the company level and not a sign of bigger problems for the AI boom. "We believe ZS is a premier name to own as increased enterprise AI adoption further amplifies the need for zero-trust architecture," Ives observes in a post-earnings analysis.

Ives reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating but cut his 12-month target price for the cybersecurity stock from $300 to $220. "Overall, ZS needs to show better execution to get out of the investor penalty box," the analyst concludes.

Indeed, Zscaler says conservative estimates for the fourth quarter and the full year are about the departure of two sales executives.

"We already appointed a replacement for one of these leaders, and we are in the late stages of hiring a leader for the other role," management explained. "However, we are taking a prudent approach to our guidance during the transition."

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To help you understand the trends surrounding business and technology and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe.) You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here's the latest…

The semiconductor industry is booming, defying historical precedents as sales surge amid red-hot demand for costly artificial intelligence chips for data centers. The biggest problem chipmakers have now is that they can’t keep up with demand.

Skyrocketing chip sales push past $1 trillion

Global chip sales will soar past $1.3 trillion in 2026, a whopping 60% rise versus last year, the fastest pace in two decades, according to a recent forecast by Gartner, a tech market research firm. To put the staggering growth in context, back in 2021, industry analysts hoped that yearly sales would hit $1 trillion by 2030.

AI chips will account for 30% of chip sales in 2026. Meanwhile, rising memory demand has caused prices to explode, so memory chips are taking a far bigger cut of total chip revenue. Sales are powered by Big Tech spending that funds massive AI data centers. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are planning more than $700 billion in capital expenditures this year.

NVIDIA is the biggest winner. Its AI chips used in data centers will see $333 billion in sales in its fiscal 2027 (this calendar year), up over 70% versus the previous year, according to a forecast by Morningstar. It’s the top chip seller, by far. Other chipmakers are riding the wave, including AMD, Samsung, Broadcom, Intel, SK Hynix and Micron. There’s rising demand for alternatives to Nvidia, too, such as chips from Alphabet, Amazon or start-up Cerebras.

AI is shifting what computer chips are needed

A major shift is underway for the chips needed to power soaring AI usage: More central processing units (CPUs) for every graphics processing unit (GPU). GPUs from Nvidia are used to train powerful AI models and also generate text, images, video, data, audio and more.

But CPUs excel at "agentic AI," the autonomous AI tools that take on traditional computing tasks, such as sorting files, querying databases and debugging code. The shift has changed the ratio of CPUs to GPUs needed from 1:8 to 1:4. It’s expected to move to parity or even flip slightly. NVIDIA has a stranglehold on the GPU market, but it also makes CPUs, and recently said it’s on track to make $20 billion in CPU sales this year.

Strengthening CPU demand has Intel’s revenue finally rising, marking the start of a comeback for the long-suffering chipmaker. The company’s bread-and-butter is CPUs and it missed out on the GPU boom needed for building top AI models.

"A year ago, the conversation about Intel was about whether we could survive," said CEO Lip-Bu Tan during Intel’s recent earnings call. "Today is about how quickly we can add manufacturing capacity and scale our supply to meet enormous demand for our products." That includes its flagship Xeon chip line for data centers.

AMD sales are exploding, too, as it looks to outdo Intel in the data center market. "With Intel facing supply issues and unable to meet the insatiable demand for CPUs, AMD benefits as a solid alternative," writes Neil Shah, analyst at Counterpoint research, in a recent article.

"We've seen how AI adoption is really unfolding [and] we're seeing significantly more CPU demand from really every major cloud provider as well as enterprise customers," said CEO Lisa Su in a recent earnings call. Su estimates the CPU market will grow 35% per year over the next five years.

Chip manufacturers race to meet the demand

When it comes to manufacturing leading-edge chips, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) still dominates, with huge orders from Nvidia and Apple, plus Broadcom, AMD, Qualcomm and others. Even Intel outsources some advanced chipmaking to TSMC, whose sales will increase 30% this year. TSMC has so much business that some will shift to Samsung and Intel, the only other companies capable of making the most advanced chips.

Intel’s new business of building chips for other chip designers is starting to gain traction, with Apple as a likely new customer. Intel already has deals with Google, Nvidia and others.

Now analysts and investors are watching to see if Intel can get high-volume orders from these tech giants. Intel’s latest leading-edge manufacturing process, known as 18A, is promising, but the real traction happens with the next generation. Known as 14A, the tech is designed for outside customers and is set to go into mass production as early as 2028. Intel hopes 14A offers a direct challenge to TSMC’s tech leadership.

Morningstar forecasts that Intel’s separate business for outside customers, known as Intel Foundry, will make $16 billion by 2030 and $48 billion by 2035. "The Apple deal, if consummated, gives us more confidence in these estimates," writes Morningstar analyst Brian Colello in a recent research note.

A note of caution on chip stocks

When it comes to soaring chip stocks, watch AI spending closely. Many businesses spending money on AI are now scrutinizing the return on investment. Tech giants’ enormous spending assumes that AI demand keeps increasing, as customers find ways to boost productivity, increase sales or streamline operations.

Near term, there’s no sign of AI adoption or spending slowing. AI leader Anthropic, for example, continues to see exploding sales, mostly from businesses. This trend has caused an extraordinary run-up in chip stocks. But if spending starts to cool off and chip sales stumble, investors in chip stocks should look out below.

This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.

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Two of the three main equity indexes traded in record territory Tuesday as Wall Street returned from a three-day weekend, and markets looked beyond continuing uncertainty in the Middle East. Apple (AAPL, -0.2%) hit a new high on optimism about its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives amid broad gains for tech-related names, while energy, consumer staples and healthcare stocks struggled.

At the closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 1.2% to 26,656, and the broad-based S&P 500 had risen 0.6% to 7,519 — new all-time closing highs.

But, despite celebrating the 130th anniversary of its May 26, 1896, debut, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% at 50,461.

"The stock market's focus on AI, oil prices, and geopolitics has recently been getting a challenge from interest rates," E*TRADE Managing Director Chris Larkin observes. "While the twists and turns of the story in the Middle East have continued to drive short-term momentum, a sustained increase in longer-term yields could prove to be a persistent headwind for stocks."

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract settled at $93.69 per barrel, down 3% for the day.

The 2-year Treasury yield, seen by investors, traders and speculators as an indicator of short-term policy direction for the Fed, was down 8.5 basis points to 4.042% vs 4.127% on Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield, which impacts the cost of mortgage rates as well as corporate bonds, fell 8.1 basis points to 4.491% from 4.572%.

Meanwhile, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 93.1 in May from 93.8 in April, declining for the first time in four months. According to The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson, "Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified."

UBS analyst triples MU target price

Micron Technology (MU, +19.3%) joined the trillion-dollar market cap club Tuesday after President Donald Trump mentioned the tech stock during his speech at a rally in New York on Friday.

"Micron, boy Micron's great. They're investing hundreds of billions," Trump said, citing Micron's commitment to spend $100 billion to build the biggest-ever U.S.-based chip factory in the Empire State.

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Meanwhile, UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated his Buy rating and raised his 12-month target price from $535 to $1,635 for the tech stock, citing long-term agreements that lock in solid pricing and allow better visibility and a smoother earnings profile.

"In contrast to prior periods where offtake agreements were simply volume based," Arcuri explains, "these new 'enhanced' LTAs now incorporate longer durations, fixed volume commitments and — most importantly — a partially fixed pricing framework."

The analyst expects earnings per share "to remain comfortably >$100" through 2029, with Micron generating more than $400 billion in free cash flow during the same period.

"We believe the market will start to put a more 'normal' multiple on the stock," Arcuri writes, "and MU will continue to re-rate higher as more details emerge about the structural changes AI has driven to the entire memory complex."

AZO hits the brakes

AutoZone (AZO, -8.9%) was one of the worst-performing S&P 500 stocks on Tuesday after management beat Wall Street's forecast for earnings per share but came up short of expectations for revenue and international growth.

High-priced AZO, a natural fit for conversations about the next stocks to split, reported EPS of $38.07 on revenue of $4.84 billion vs a consensus estimate of $36.22 on $4.86 billion.

Same-store sales growth in the U.S. was 4.1% on a constant-currency basis. AutoZone's stores in Mexico and Brazil combined for year-over-year sales growth of 1.6%.

CEO Phil Daniele noted impressive growth for domestic DIY and commercial segments, and acknowledged that international sales "continued to be challenged," with flat sales in Mexico and Brazil.

Still, the CEO said, "We believe our market share continues to grow as we outpace our competition in both international marketplaces." AutoZone opened 82 new stores globally, in line with its plan to open approximately 355 to 365 stores for the full fiscal year as part of its strategy to add market share.

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You may have heard about a settlement between President Donald Trump and the IRS to resolve a $10 billion lawsuit over his tax returns. The deal has sparked backlash, including over a provision that bars the federal tax agency from continuing existing audits involving Trump, his company, and his family members.

The agreement also reportedly creates a multibillion-dollar “Anti-Weaponization Fund” (more on that later).

Meanwhile...the administration has cut IRS staffing and budget — most recently by roughly $1.1 billion in FY26 — since Trump began his second term.

These developments raise several thorny political, legal, and practical concerns. But one key question is whether IRS enforcement priorities will shift in ways that affect more taxpayers: Who else will still get audited, and why?

Trump IRS settlement: How we got here

Before looking at who the IRS might audit, it helps to understand how the Trump IRS settlement came about in the first place.

As Kiplinger has reported, Donald Trump, the Trump Organization, and family members sued the IRS and Treasury Department in federal court in early 2026.

• They alleged that the agencies failed to safeguard Trump’s confidential tax information after an unauthorized disclosure by a former IRS contractor.
• The suit sought $10 billion in damages and drew scrutiny because a sitting president was suing over the very agency that enforces tax law.

By mid-May 2026, Trump said the dispute was resolved through a settlement with the Department of Justice (DOJ). As mentioned, a provision in that settlement appears to limit IRS action surrounding existing audits involving Trump, his family, and affiliated entities.

The settlement also reportedly creates a roughly $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” tied to claims of government misconduct. The fund would be taxpayer-funded and controlled by an administration-appointed group, not the IRS, raising concerns about its broad scope, lack of congressional oversight, and lack of precedent in tax disputes.

A lawsuit has already been filed challenging the fund’s structure, and the combination of a large compensation fund and limits on IRS scrutiny of Trump, his company, and his family is fueling concern.

In a May 21 letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and IRS CEO Frank Bisignano, several Senate lawmakers wrote the following.

“Through this settlement, you and the President have created a nearly $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded slush fund for the President's political allies, including potentially the January 6th insurrectionists . . . essentially making it official United States government policy that President Trump, his family, and many other allies are above the law.”

Update: A federal judge in Virginia temporarily blocked the Trump administration from creating or distributing money from its "Anti-Weaponization Fund" while the court reviews legal challenges alleging the fund may be unconstitutional and improperly benefit Trump allies.

IRS audit red flags for everyone else?

Even as Trump appears to have reduced exposure to IRS scrutiny for certain existing matters involving him or his family, audits remain unlikely to disappear for other taxpayers.

And one thing to note first: Historically, IRS audit activity has not been evenly distributed, and data show that a meaningful share of audits involving lower-income taxpayers has centered on refundable credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC).

The reason seems to be that those are easier for the agency to flag and resolve through automated review and correspondence audit.

What about audit rates? The overall audit tax rate for the IRS is reportedly less than 1%.

• IRS audit rates fell sharply from about 0.9% of returns in 2011 to roughly 0.3% in 2018 (about 9 in 1,000 returns versus 3 in 1,000), according to IRS Data Book figures.
• Audit activity then ticked up modestly through 2024, following new IRS funding under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act.
• Early reporting from President Donald Trump’s second term suggests that audits have softened again due to staffing and budget cuts, which affect enforcement capacity.

With fewer experienced revenue agents available, enforcement leans more heavily on automated systems that can operate at scale — flagging discrepancies between reported income and third-party forms like W-2s and 1099s, or generating notices based on data mismatches.

That tends to push compliance toward high-volume, low-complexity cases where algorithms identify errors. Some so-called “red flags” include:

• Income reporting mismatches detected through IRS computer systems
• Refundable tax credit claims requiring documentation checks
• Self-employment and gig-economy income reporting
• Automated compliance alerts triggered by third-party reporting gaps

More complex audits, like those involving large partnerships, layered business structures, and high-net-worth returns, require more staff time and specialized expertise. As a result, they tend to be more sensitive to staffing levels when the agency loses experienced examiners or shifts resources toward automation.

That doesn't necessarily mean fewer audits overall, but there could be a shift in which kinds of errors the agency catches most often. That tension lies at the center of the broader question raised by Trump’s settlement: not just who is exempt from audit scrutiny, but who remains most exposed and why.

Who get audited by the IRS: Bottom line

For most taxpayers, IRS audits in 2026 are still likely to occur — but probably at relatively low rates overall — and they don’t usually look like the intensive, in-person examinations some people experienced in the past or tend to imagine.

Note: Keep in mind that whether the IRS audits you will depend on your specific tax situation. As Kiplinger has reported, the agency may consider several factors, including income, tax breaks claimed, whether you own a business, etc. Consult a tax professional if you're concerned about your audit exposure.

• More often, modern IRS audits are "correspondence audits."
• These are automated notices often triggered by mismatched income records, missing paperwork, or questions tied to tax credits and deductions.
• They tend to be relatively narrow, system-driven, and generally designed to be resolved through documents rather than agent interviews.

But since enforcement tends to fall most heavily on returns that are easiest to flag automatically, everyday taxpayers can end up more visible than higher-income taxpayers with more complex cases, which many people would assume would or should draw the most scrutiny.

Meanwhile, the Trump IRS settlement is fueling a fiery debate.

Senate Finance Democrats, including the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), as well as Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), have questioned whether the agreement oversteps congressional authority and effectively restricts IRS enforcement in ways never approved by statute.

At the same time, some Republicans, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, have also raised concerns about precedent and process, arguing that any deal involving limits on IRS audits or large compensation structures requires clearer congressional oversight and guardrails.

Fitzpatrick and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) introduced the No Taxpayer-Funded Settlement Slush Funds Act to prevent federal dollars from being used for the fund.

Notably, Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota reportedly has said he didn't see a purpose for the fund.

The Justice Department also recently faced questioning in a hearing on Capitol Hill over how the agreement was structured and how a nearly $1.8 billion compensation fund was justified in the context of a tax enforcement dispute. Lawmakers pressed acting Attorney General Todd Blanche for more details on how the terms were negotiated and approved.

Overall? Stay tuned. What becomes of the Trump IRS deal could spark continued debate over tax enforcement and fairness.

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All three main equity indexes gapped up on Friday morning and rallied into the weekend, even as oil prices and bond yields remain elevated. There's a new leader in charge at the most important central bank in the world. And the oldest of those main stock indexes just hit another new high.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% at 50,579, a fresh all-time closing high. The Dow was up 2.1% for the week.

The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,473, ending the week with a gain of 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% to 26,343, rising 0.5% vs last Friday.

The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract settled at $96.93 per barrel, down 0.02% for the day and 8.1.% for the week.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury, seen by investors, traders and speculators as an indicator of short-term policy direction for the Fed, closed the week at 4.123% vs 4.087% on Thursday and 4.084% last Friday.

Kevin Warsh is officially the Fed chair

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair during a ceremony at the White House on Friday, with President Donald Trump watching his nominee take the oath of office with major questions about inflation and the trajectory of the federal funds rate front of mind for markets.

It's the first time a president has observed the swearing in of a Fed chair since Ronald Reagan and Alan Greenspan in 1987.

"President Trump chose Kevin Warsh to run the Federal Reserve to secure the lower interest rates he has demanded for the past year," Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal observes. "A suddenly pressing question is whether Warsh would have political cover to do the opposite and raise them."

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Merck leads the Dow

Merck (MRK, +5.6%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock on Friday after its China-based partner Kelun-Biotech announced positive Phase III trial results for a new cancer drug.

A combination of Kelun-Biotech's sacituzumab tirumotecan, or sac-TMT, and Merck's Keytruda reduced the risk of tumor progression by 65% in lung cancer patients.

CEO Robert Davis emphasized Merck's efforts to build a "patent wall" during the drugmaker's first-quarter conference call, as Keytruda nears the end of its exclusivity period in 2028. That includes new indications as well as new combinations.

The healthcare stock sagged after reaching its 52-week high of $125.14 on February 25, but stabilized after management reported a narrower-than-expected loss and raised full-year guidance on April 30.

Astera Labs leads the chips

From its most recent all-time closing high on May 11 through May 21, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX, +2.4%) was down 1.5%. Nvidia (NVDA, -1.9%), the biggest stock in the world by market cap, was basically flat.

But Astera Labs (ALAB, +3.0%) was up 43.6%. The tech stock was up 31.9% this week after Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price for ALAB from $215 to $297.

The analyst cited recent channel checks showing AI data center capex budgets will emphasize inference infrastructure in the second half of 2026.

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