Slide Show | May 2011
10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
By Pat Mertz Esswein
Follow @PatEsswein
Some of the other markets found on our falling home price roster didn't until early 2007. So corrections will take longer than in the rest of the U.S.
A key point: The difference between cities doing well or poorly has narrowed. Our top ranked city's median-home-price gain was 5.6%, and the bottom-most's loss was -10.2%. That spread of 15 points is a drastic improvement over just a couple of years ago, when it was nearly 50 percentage points.
All of the metropolitan areas we've ranked have a population of at least 500,000. Change in home prices reflects the one-year period through December 31, 2010, when the national average was -4.1%. Unemployment rate is as of February 2011, when the national average was 9.5%. Foreclosure rate is as of March 31, 2011, when the national average was around 0.5%.
Find out which cities made our top ten list.
Sources: Fiserv Case-Shiller, National Association of Realtors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, RealtyTrac, Data Quick, Trulia.com, metro-area multiple-listing services 10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
1. Tucson, Ariz.
Median home price: $160,000
Change in price since peak (Q1 2006): -39.2%
Unemployment rate: 8.7%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 93 housing units (1.07%)
Tucson is home to military installations, high-tech and aerospace companies, and major medical and research facilities. But the dominant economic driver for years in this area was residential real estate development.
As a result, recovery here will be slow. On the positive side, home affordability is good; sales during the traditional winter and early spring selling season, when snowbirds are in residence, have improved; and the supply of homes is decreasing. Fiserv Case-Shiller expects home prices here to stabilize soon. 1. Tucson, Ariz.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
2. Boise, Idaho
Courtesy of Trent Cutlet
Median home price: $141,000
Change in price since peak (Q2 2007): -30%
Rate of unemployment: 10.5%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 70 housing units (1.42%)
A plethora of short sales and foreclosures in this market has pushed prices down. But overall sales, which improved for a while, have slowed. Boise's employers include numerous manufacturers and high-tech companies -- Micron Technology, Hewlett Packard, Microsoft -- but unemployment is still higher than the national average. Nevertheless, inventory has fallen, so the market is now balanced between buyers and sellers, and prices are forecast to stabilize this year. 2. Boise, Idaho
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
3. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.
Courtesy of Christopher Ziemnowicz
Median home price: $135,000
Change in price since peak (Q1 2006): -51.3%
Unemployment rate: 11.5%
Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 288 housing units (0.35%)
Although home sales have been strong (and even stronger for condos than single-family homes), prices have continued to fall. Kennedy Space Center is located nearby, and Brevard County is home to numerous communications, electronics, aerospace, advanced security and emerging-technology companies.
But the rate of unemployment is high, and Congress nixed funds to help space workers find jobs after the forthcoming shutdown of the shuttle program. The rate of foreclosure has fallen, but that reflects continuing problems with and delays in the processing of foreclosure paperwork. 3. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
4. Jacksonville, Fla.
Courtesy of Jonathan-Zander
Median home price: $175,000
Change in price since peak (Q2 2006): -37.8%
Rate of unemployment: 10.6%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 154 housing units (0.65%)
Home prices in Jacksonville, which is a transportation and distribution hub as well as home to military bases, have fallen more for condos than for single-family homes. Sales improved through the winter, especially for condos, as snowbirds snapped up bargains.
The rate of unemployment is higher than the national average, but job growth has been improving. The rate of foreclosure is slightly higher than the national average, but the foreclosure paperwork delays have tamped it down. Both factors dampen prospects for price appreciation this year. 4. Jacksonville, Fla.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
5. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
Courtesy of Mike Russell
Median home price: $115,000
Change in price since peak (Q2 2006): -54.9%
Rate of unemployment: 11.8%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 195 housing units (0.51%)
During the boom, Lakeland-Winter Haven attracted home-buyers looking for greater affordability and a reasonable commute to Tampa and Orlando. The area has long been known for citrus growing and phosphate mining, but it's also a transportation hub.
Prices since the peak, in mid 2006, have tumbled 55%, but single-family homes have kept their value better than condos. Sales improved through the winter months, with condos outpacing single-family homes. Don't expect a rebound in prices anytime soon: Unemployment remains high, and the foreclosure rate will probably rise with resolution of the foreclosure-paperwork issue. 5. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
6. Phoenix, Ariz.
Median home price: $135,000
Change in price since peak (Q2 2006): -55.5%
Unemployment rate: 8.8%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 48 housing units (2.10%)
Phoenix has the fourth-highest rate of foreclosure in the U.S. -- a big reason for the phenomenon of strong sales alongside falling prices. One positive sign: Supply is down to about four months’ worth -- considered a balanced market. Job creation has been strong in professional and business services, trade and transport, and education and health services. 6. Phoenix, Ariz.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
7. Camden, N.J.
iStockphoto
Median home price: $194,000
Change in price since peak (2007:Q1): -23.0%
Unemployment rate: 10.3%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 371 housing units (0.27%)*
During the real estate boom, this suburban metro area (Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties) attracted home-buyers from Philadelphia and more-expensive nearby New Jersey counties in search of affordability.
Since the market's peak, the area's median home price has fallen twice as far as that of Philadelphia. And by late 2010, sales had fallen between 24% and 42% over the previous year, depending on the county.
*data is for the larger Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington metro area 7. Camden, N.J.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
8. Atlanta, Ga.
Courtesy of Chuck Koehler
Median home price: $155,000
Percentage change in price since peak (Q1 2007): -26%
Unemployment rate: 10.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 79 housing units (1.26%)
Atlanta is most famous as the headquarters of Coca-Cola, but its economy is also driven by service, distribution, health care and life sciences industries. Sales continue to fall from the year before. The metro area is burdened with a high rate of foreclosure, and many high-end foreclosures are still coming to market. To top it off, the jobless rate is higher than the national average, and job growth is weak. 8. Atlanta, Ga.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
9. Portland, Ore.
Courtesy of Michael Wiley
Change in price since peak (Q1 2007): -26.1%
Median home price: $248,000
Unemployment rate: 10.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 211 housing units (0.48%)
Portland is known as one of the most environmentally friendly cities anywhere. It has promoted urban density and limited suburban sprawl with its "urban growth boundary." But its home market is still a little frothy, based on affordability.
Sales have continued to decline, as have prices. Supply has fallen to seven months' worth, closing in on the high side of normal. The rate of unemployment is still higher than the national average, but the rate of foreclosure has declined. 9. Portland, Ore.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
10. Chicago, Ill.
Courtesy of Jeremy A.
Median home price: $210,000
Percentage change in price since peak (Q1 2007): -31.6%
Unemployment rate: 9.2%
Foreclosure rate: 1 of every 125 housing units (0.80%)
In the Windy City's metro area, which includes nine counties, sales and the median home price have continued to fall, but they're expected to warm up as spring arrives.
Distressed properties, especially condos, are still dampening prices, and condo buyers may face difficulty obtaining financing. Inventory is on the high side -- about a year's worth at the current pace of sales. 10. Chicago, Ill.
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10 Cities Where Home Prices Have Fallen Most
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