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Jon B. Alterman is director and senior fellow of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a nonpartisan think tank. He previously served as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs and as an adviser to the Iraq Study Group led by former Secretary of State James Baker and former House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Lee Hamilton.
Iran is becoming an increasingly influential power in the Middle East, but the reasons behind that are puzzling. After all, Iran -- which is predominantly Shiite Muslim while most of the rest of the region is Sunni Arab -- has historically had little to do with Arab nations. On top of that, Iran's ambitions unnerve many of the Arab states in the Middle East, including countries that have long had strong support from the United States. Yet these days, those allies feel more comfortable politically if they tolerate Iran while putting distance between themselves and the U.S.
What's behind this odd dynamic of cozying up to a threatening power? And just how big a power and influence can Iran be in the region? Jon Alterman, director and senior fellow of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says Iran is succeeding by building popular support throughout the region, in large part by capitalizing on and further inflaming hatred of Israel. In that way, it engages and builds popular movements throughout the region, especially among Shiite minorities. At the same time, it is winning quiet support from Arab governments, despite fear at the prospect of strengthening religious and extremist movements, because they believe that growing Iranian pressure and power will force Israel to the negotiating table.
"In my judgment, the government of Iran uses its hostility to Israel strategically, as a way to open doors for a Shiite, Farsi-speaking power in the Sunni Arab heartland.... Iran is trying to obfuscate the fact that it is a foreign government with its own aspirations to regional dominance by portraying itself as an influential regional force agitating against the status quo, and a fearless rejectionist that dares to speak truth to power," Alterman told Congress recently. Iran's allies are movements such as Hamas in Lebanon and Hezbollah in the West Bank, not states. And while those groups and supporters do not have the power to topple those nations, they hold considerable sway. "Iran can take comfort not only in these allies' growing power, but more importantly, in the ways in which they insulate Iran from U.S. and international pressure," he said.
Iran is not solely responsible for the diminished influence of the United States. We have done a good bit of that on our own, Alterman said, by seeking to "remake the region in our image." That alienated friendly governments and gave popular movements a rallying cry. "We should neither abandon our ideals nor our friends, but we need to recognize that we serve neither when we over-promise and under-deliver," he said.
POSTED BY: Kaushal (June 30, 2008 12:27 PM)
Actually... it's Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in the West bank.
POSTED BY: marty (July 18, 2008 10:33 AM)
What must be constantly kept in mind is that the Iranian leadership is both fanatical and corrupt. Because of the former sociopaths such as the Iranian president express determination to destroy the Israeli democracy; because of the latter the economy is a mess and there is widespread dissatisfaction with the regime's overall performance. Iran is a both a fake country and a failed state. The United States should encourage the growth of separatist movements--Kurdish, Baluchi, Arab--to seek independence from Tehran. Once Iran is ended as a viable state, the Middle East will become more stable, oil will get less expensive, and American allies will no longer be targets for attack.
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