We're forecasting a mild, short contraction ending well before the year is out. With housing and lending industries hurting, factory production and retail sales falling, employment shrinking and consumer incomes slowing, there's no question that a recession is under way. But relief is already in sight.
Still, some parts of the country will be hit a lot harder than others. In states that led the housing boom, including Florida, Nevada and Arizona, as well as Southern California, thousands of jobs in construction and real estate services are disappearing as home values fall. Frost Belt states are in pain, too, especially Michigan and Ohio because of troubles in the beleaguered auto manufacturing industry.
But look for a turnaround soon, with expansion returning in the second half of this year. The fiscal stimulus from Washington and the accumulated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve plus other moves will translate into a 2.5% growth in the economy for the third quarter and a similar pace in the fourth quarter. Next year, though, we expect a tepid 2% or so gain in gross domestic product, and it may feel even slower to some. John Silvia, chief economist with Wachovia Corp., says, "We're still working through the housing crisis, and we've got credit problems to deal with."
With election pressures intensifying, Washington will use more tools to boost growth. The odds are rising for a second fiscal stimulus package. Legislation would be aimed at extending unemployment benefits, increasing food stamps and funneling some aid to the states to help homeowners and create jobs.
A federal bailout of besieged homeowners is also gaining steam. Democrats plan a big push in April for legislation that would provide up to $300 billion worth of guarantees so that those behind on their mortgage payments and living in homes whose values are plummeting won't end up in foreclosure. Existing lenders would take a big hit, recovering at most 85% of current market value, and most Republicans oppose the plan. But pressure to help homeowners is mounting, especially since the Fed threw a lifeline to troubled investment banker Bear Stearns and opened the path for other Wall Street firms to tap the Fed's lending window. President Bush still resists, but he has signaled some willingness to compromise, and several actions in recent weeks have been undertaken, despite previous White House opposition.
That's the case involving mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The administration is reducing the required levels of capital reserves at each in an effort to stimulate more lending to home buyers. Limits on the size of loans that Fannie and Freddie can accept have also been raised a lot. Earlier this year, the Bush administration opposed both measures.
The problem is that an estimated 8 million homeowners this year will owe more on their mortgages than their home is worth. Finding themselves "under water," many will be tempted to walk away. That would add to the large number of unsold homes and further drive down prices. Policymakers must halt that vicious cycle, says Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com.
Meanwhile, the Fed will remain bold in trying to keep credit market woes from spilling over from big banks to smaller ones. More rescues along the lines of the Bear Stearns move are likely. Rescuing Bear Stearns was essential to keeping markets afloat, according to former Fed governor Lyle Gramley. "If the Fed hadn't done it, the cascading effects [on financial markets] would have been disastrous."
And the Fed is poised to make more interest rate cuts, which help lower costs for homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit, as well as many small businesses whose existing loans are linked to the prime rate.
The Fed is taking a couple of huge risks. In continuing to trim interest rates, it adds to downward pressure on the dollar at a time when the U.S. needs to encourage foreigners to buy U.S. stocks and bonds. Further, pumping lots of credit into the financial system will add to inflationary pressures once the economy starts to recover. But officials, led by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, clearly think the risk of a steep recession must be dealt with first.
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POSTED BY: DH (March 24, 2008 06:00 AM)
So by decreasing the value of the dollar with all this stimulus crap, that is a good thing? Come on it is just a ploy to get the Amero in quicker as our national currnecy in North America!!! This entire recession is fabricated, orchestrated by the Big Boys on Wall Street to line their pockets with even more Billions, while the little guys that make this country run like you and me get screwed once again. The stimulus package is a joke, just a band aid to try to appease the masses, to make it look good, when in essence it does nothing. Until fuel prices are reigned in this country will continue on a downward spiral.
POSTED BY: Kim (April 03, 2008 03:36 PM)
Here we come Japan, deflation. 2011, I hope so, but it may be more like 2018.
Hey, it wasn't just homeowners who bought inflated priced homes--it was the INVESTORS who took their cash from the tech bubble burst and sunk it into real estate--bringing the turmoil of the stock market into the real estate market. Some of us who bought a home in 2006 had NO CHOICE but to pay a higher price or keep renting, and rents were rising as well. My house is still only worth about what I paid, it didn't go down, but it didn't go up. I wasn't the "idiot" playing with condo construction to get rich, so watch who you're calling "idiots". The idiots are the ones who think this has not been accelerated by greed of those who saw the way things were going and rode the system until it broke. Where's all those mortgage brokers that sold off bad loans and where's all those who bought them only to see them default? On some island counting their cash.
Our economy is based on consumerism--fine if the consumer is overseas, but now we consume more than we produce-- a debtor society that must adapt or will be written off by the rest of the world.
Anyone want to buy a house?
POSTED BY: Joe Honick (April 24, 2008 10:55 AM)
After having warned about this inevitable disaster a few years ago, we should not be surprised either by the fact or the comments here. I am confused by the headlined idea of a "glimmer of light for the housing industry" elsewhere in this post. Fact is consumer confidence has been so diminished, even if homes are sold, values are severely impacted.
The international financial community has to take responsibility for their greedy involvement as do many of the financial media who trumpeted the idea of all those ARM's and other devices Greenspan warned about as did others.