Stocks & Bonds
Know Your Limits
We've found a quiz recommended by experts that may help you get a handle on your own risk tolerance.
By Bob Frick, Senior Editor
From Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine, January 2010
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Gauging how much risk you can handle is perhaps the key to investing success. Take on too little and you’re leaving money on the table because riskier investments generally return more over time. Take on too much and you may cut and run when markets drop, and end up selling at the bottom.
We’ve all suffered through a crash course in risk tolerance over the past couple of years. But it’s a slippery concept. Barry Greenstein, for instance, is a poker player by profession, so you might think he’d be prone to gambling with his portfolio. Instead, Greenstein buys utility stocks and municipal bonds, and says he follows his father’s advice: “You can play poker, but don’t trade commodities.”
Just because you enjoy living on the edge doesn’t mean you can handle speculative investments. And your appetite for risk may vary as often as you change your shoes; it shifts with your mood, your social setting, your knowledge of investing and, most important, what’s going on in the market. One study, published in the Journal of Behavioral Finance, showed that if the markets have been up for just a few weeks, people grow a bit hungrier for risk, says John Grable, a former financial planner and currently a professor at Kansas State University.
Take our quiz. One way to get a handle on your own risk tolerance is to fill out a questionnaire. Such quizzes can be a useful exercise, but they’re often poorly designed or used inappropriately by financial advisers. Many are often based on false assumptions -- for example, that women are risk-averse or that “you can handle more investment risk because you love to jump out of planes on weekends,” says Grable. Advisers are required by law to have clients fill out questionnaires about their investment preferences. However, says Grable, these often end up filed and forgotten, and advisers rely on stereotypes and assumptions to design portfolios for their clients.
But we’ve found a quiz recommended by experts that may help you get a handle on your own risk tolerance. Created by Fina-Metrica, the quiz is available here. Without giving too much away -- we don’t want to bias your results -- the test asks questions about your attitudes toward loss, debt and different types of investments.
The results provide guidance about how much risk you should take in your portfolio. And, of course, we all think that’s critical to a million-dollar payoff. But Grable says that way of thinking gets things backward. “Risk tolerance just refers to your willingness to take risk,” he explains. “It’s not the same as your capacity to take risk.”
So if you have a well-diversified portfolio, plus a wad of cash and maybe a guaranteed annuity, you have a tremendous capacity to ride the ups and downs of the market. If you don’t -- and this was the “lesson of the century” for many investors over the past couple of years, says Grable -- you probably don’t have the capacity to handle a 40% drop in the market. That means you were a prime candidate to sell your stocks and miss the recovery.
Older and wiser. Intuitively, you’d think we’d grow less tolerant of taking chances as we age. But the opposite is true, according to a study published by the Association for Financial Counseling and Planning Education. That may be because as we get older, we have a greater understanding of investing, not to mention a bigger pile of assets, so we can handle more risk both financially and psychologically.
In any case, taking the test is a good starting point for measuring your own attitudes toward risk. And you should take it often, especially after the markets record big gains or losses. It will help you monitor just how risk-tolerant you are, and show you how fickle your own attitudes can be.
Kiplinger’s is partnering with Nightly Business Report on the “Your Mind & Your Money” series, funding for which is provided by the FINRA Investor Education Foundation. For companion video reports, tune in to NBR on your local PBS channel Dec. 14 and 28.
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Reader Comments (3)
Posted by: Anthony at 12/23/2009 02:38:01 PM
Is there any tool that analyzes actual actions and determines a risk tolerance? Maybe that still requires an advisor to determine, but actions speak louder than words. The FinaMetrica questionnaire asked about general risk. My decisions would have been different whether I was being asked about my retirement or my emergency savings funds. For someone far off from retirement, looking at the relative allocations and decisions in my after tax investments might yield more useful information on risk tolerance than my retirement account. Of course the retirement account is 90%+ in stock funds, so that's telling as well. Here's an example- I can move money from a Money Market fund into a GNMA bond fund to possibly make a few more points of yield, but do I take on the risk of the bond price fluctuations eating the advantage in yield? Even a 6% loss in principal could eat up 2 years of dividends, so I'm passing on that advice (found in the 1/2010 issue).
Posted by: Jim MacKay at 01/10/2010 10:57:26 AM
Anthony brings up a good point. I also believe Actions are more descriptive than Theory. I have published a book and a few articles on Risk Tolerance in the oil and gas exploration business. It is not the same for personal investments but it is similar. My shortest and possibly best description was published by the SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers). Risk Tolerance is usually managed though diversification. Answering 20 questions about what you might do is not as realistic as looking at twenty projects that show what you did do. I have a couple simple algebra formulas that calculate Risk Aversion and Apparent Risk Tolerance based on prior investment decisions but these evaluate preferences in percent of the project rather than types of personal investments. In general I have observed some trends. 1. Most people are risk averse. 2. They often seek safety but often don't realize the cost of that safety and how limited the perceived safety is. 3. They act irrationally when they consider sunk costs or personal expertise.
Posted by: Allan R. Roth at 02/01/2010 01:40:57 PM
Just wonderin.........I was reading the article on "Know Your Limits", along with a variety of other articles on the Kiplinger website (i.e., "Be a Better Investor", "7 Deadly Sins of Investing", and "How Poker Can Make You a Better Investor") and when I tried to access the link to the risk tolerance quiz, it came back as an error and wouldn't allow access to that particular element. Any thoughts or solutions? Is that particular quiz available elsewhere on the Kiplinger website? Thanks for your help. Allan Roth