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David Payne

Staff Economist
The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Latest Features

Economic Forecasts
November 2016

2016 Holiday Sales to Top Last Year's

Kiplinger's latest forecast on retail sales and consumer spending

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Economic Forecasts
November 2016

Inflation Headed Up

Kiplinger's latest forecast on inflation

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Economic Forecasts
November 2016

Higher Interest Rates Likely Permanent

Kiplinger's latest forecast on interest rates

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Economic Forecasts
November 2016

Job Growth to Tee Up Fed Rate Hike

Kiplinger's latest forecast on jobs

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Economic Forecasts
December 2016

Trump’s Impact on the Economy

Kiplinger's latest forecast for the GDP growth rate

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Practical Economics
September 2016

A Housing Shortage Looms: Builders Can’t Keep Up

Starter homes especially are becoming scarce.

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Practical Economics
June 2016

Help Wanted in America: Skilled Workers

In an ever-more-competitive job market, technology increases the need for skilled workers.

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SLIDE SHOW
November 2016

States With the Fastest Job Growth in 2016

Looking for a job? A vibrant economy in which to launch your new business? A new market for your firm’s next expansion? The Kiplinger Letter’s annual state economic outlooks help job-seekers, entrepreneurs ...

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Practical Economics
May 2016

U.S. Economy to Perk Up in Second Half

Consumers are recovering from a swoon induced by a wobbly stock market. But energy, other sectors will continue to struggle.

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Practical Economics
March 2016

Improving Prospects for Most Small Businesses

Firms in the housing and tourism sectors can prosper as home sales surge and low gas prices encourage more travel.

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Practical Economics
February 2016

2016: A Second Good Year for Housing

The housing market picked up last year in many areas of the U.S. Look for it to grow as well or better this year.

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Practical Economics
February 2016

No Recession Brewing for U.S. Economy

Barring some serious shock, the economy overall should still post a good, albeit not great, year.

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Practical Economics
December 2015

Jobs and Hiring Outlook, 2016

Tech and health care continue to lead the fields where jobs go wanting. Employers who need to fill those slots will have to pick up their game.

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SLIDE SHOW
January 2016

States with the Fastest Job Growth

Looking for a job? A vibrant economy in which to launch your new business? A new market for your firm's next expansion? The Kiplinger Letter's annual state economic outlooks help job-seekers, entrepreneurs ...

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Practical Economics
September 2015

Learn What the Fed's Eventual Rate Increase Means to You

Slightly higher loan payments and short-term market volatility are in the cards.

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Economic Forecasts
July 2015

2015 Economic Outlook, State by State

Kiplinger forecasts a 2.5% growth rate nationally this year, after a 2.4% gain in 2014. Here are our forecasts for growth, as well as employment gains, for all 50 states.

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SLIDE SHOW
August 2015

States With the Fastest Job Growth 2015

These 10 states are likely to see the fastest employment gains this year, all topping the 2% national average. Not all will see the most job growth, an honor that almost always goes to the most populous ...

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