No fooling. Now is the time to buy stocks. At least that's what one renowned market timer has been saying.

That's right, a market timer. I know we've said countless times that you shouldn't try to time the market -- buy-and-hold investing is the only successful strategy I know of -- but this market timer has a superb track record.

His name is Bob Brinker, and he's the editor of Bob Brinker's Market Timer newsletter ($185 annually, www.bobbrinker.com or 800-700-1030) and the host of "Money Talk," a weekend radio show that airs on 220 stations across the U.S.

Brinker turned bullish in 1990 and advised investors to stay in stocks until January 2000. With the market two months from its all-time peak, Brinker told investors to sell.

A few weeks ago, he issued his first buy signal since then.

Turn signals

Brinker looks at five general areas to make his decisions on whether to be invested or not -- and all but one are currently flashing "buy."

The economy. Despite the Iraq war, Brinker says his data suggest "an economic recovery will begin in earnest within the next six months." Since the market typically moves about six months before the economy, this is the time to buy.

The Fed. He also finds monetary policy bullish, with the Federal Reserve willing to ease further to prevent deflation. "The Fed is more accommodative than at any time in modern history," he says.

Market sentiment. The third bullish sign Brinker sees is market sentiment. With most investors in the dumps, he thinks there are few sellers left.

Market health. Finally, he says the market's internals are bullish. Brinker uses a proprietary model to judge the health of the market.

Valuation. The only mixed signal is on the market's valuation. By some measures the market is undervalued; by others it is still overvalued, or at least not yet cheap. Brinker believes the fact that stocks aren't dirt-cheap may limit how far the next bull market will go.

While he's bullish now, Brinker believes the long secular bull market of the 1980s and 1990s is over. He thinks we've entered a trendless era when the market will move upwards for awhile and then downwards for awhile. He says such secular bear markets have lasted eight to 20 years, on average, over the last 100 years.

During the most recent such market, from 1966-1982, the major averages went nowhere -- although that excludes dividends, which were significant during that period.

Time to time?

While market timing has been in disrepute for many years, Brinker, who has been in the investment business 35 years, says that's only because of the long bull market.

Data compiled over the 1980s and 1990s by the Hulbert Financial Digest show most timers badly lagged the market averages.

According to Hulbert, however, Brinker's average portfolio is ahead of the broad-based Wilshire 5000 stock index over the last one, three, five, eight and ten years. But Brinker trails the Wilshire over the full 16½ years Hulbert has tracked him because of a money-losing sell signal after the 1987 crash. Hulbert's most recent results are through the end of January of this year.

Brinker predicts market timing, in general, will be more valuable in the future. "The buy and hold days are over," he proclaims.

He says that mutual funds and stock brokerages have an inherent bias to persuade people to buy. "The typical Wall Street strategist has a built in corporate bias to find some way to tell you to buy stocks."

Brinker is a big believer in index funds. His favorite is Vanguard Total Stock Market (VITSX), which tracks the Wilshire 5000. Only 10% of his recommended portfolio is in foreign stocks.

While he uses some actively managed funds, Brinker didn't want their names published. In any event, Hulbert says that Brinker's fund selections, on average, have lagged the Wilshire.

After the huge decline in the stock market over the last three years, I don't subscribe to the gloomy view that the market is doomed to produce little for buy-and-hold investors in coming years.

But if you want to time the market, with part of your money, that's not unreasonable. And Brinker's record certainly speaks for itself.

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