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Stratfor, short for Strategic Forecasting Inc., is the world’s leading private intelligence company. Founded in 1996, Stratfor delivers to its clients real-time intelligence, analysis and forecasts on geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues.Crises such as the Russian invasion of the former Soviet state of Georgia tend to be seen in human and melodramatic terms. In Georgia's case, the script reads something like this: A growing global bully and near authoritarian state tries to intimidate a nearby independent nation, bringing pledges of support for the nascent and fragile democracy from major Western allies.
While such a perception is accurate to a degree, it ignores the huge number of strategic and geopolitical concerns and worries of national interest that are often at the root of many conflicts and potential conflicts. To understand why Georgia is so important and why it could be at the center of conflict between Russia and the Western powers, you need to understand the importance of the Black Sea, says the private intelligence firm Stratfor.
To the Russians, the Black Sea is one of its few strategic vulnerabilities, so it is not surprising that a country long preoccupied with its security and strength would react so strongly and quickly when it felt its underbelly was exposed. "For Russia, the key strategic value of the Black Sea lies in controlling the energy resources in the Caucasus and around the Caspian Sea," Stratfor says. Without it, "Moscow would be cut off from the Russian Caucasus and the region's immense energy resources." For Europeans, the Black Sea emerged as a major trade route after the Cold War ended. "Now, Central European manufacturing exports can be floated down the river to the Black Sea, which is much cheaper than transporting them to the Baltic Sea by land. Any renewed closure of this transportation route would certainly be a big problem for Europe," the intelligence firm warns.
Once it establishes what is at stake for all the various players in the region, Stratfor then assesses the military situation and risks. It gives the edge to the West, largely because of the strategic location of NATO ally Turkey. "At present, the West … has overall superior military power in the Black Sea," Stratfor concludes. "By controlling the Dardanelles, the formidable U.S. and Turkish navies control the sea's entrance as well as its waters."
POSTED BY: redcat (September 03, 2008 07:57 PM)
Bwa-ha-ha-ha, Stratfor dreamer!
1) direct conflict between Russia and US is impossible, because it is never possible! Because it can trigger self-annihilation of human life on the planet Earth.
Only proxy wars are possible. This first point is obviously enough.
Nevertheless:
2) Not NATO but Russia possess "overall superiority" on sea due to the much more advanced supersonic missile technologies.
USan ship missiles are SUBsonic, Russian SUPERsonic, every literate person can check it.
3) There is a treaty called "Montreu treaty" that regulates not Black Sea's countries Navy in the Black Sea. It says overall they can have 45000 tonnes, that is about 5 destroyers. Carrier is bigger than 45000 tonnes and without a carrier any amount of ships is nothing for the Russian navy, see above #2.
4) Although in NATO, Turkey is not a US puppet country. It is aware of Greater Middle East crazy plans by the way (Bernard Lewis and co.) ... Turkey's behavior is balanced and wise it won't move towards exacerbations with Russia from which it buys and to which it sells a lot.
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