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George Friedman, a recognized expert and author on national security and intelligence issues, is the CEO of Stratfor (short for Strategic Forecasting Inc.), the world’s leading private intelligence company. Founded in 1996, Stratfor delivers to its clients real-time intelligence, analysis and forecasts on geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues.Riots at gas stations in Iran are not the only sign that the petroleum-rich Persian Gulf nation is struggling to produce energy. In a country that usually takes great pains to keep its various woes secret, Iranian officials have been surprisingly blunt about its need to improve production facilities. Why? It may be part of an elaborate diplomatic dance in preparation for serious talks with the United States over calming tensions in Iraq.
Stratfor, a global intelligence and forecasting firm, writes in an analysis entitled Iran: Gasoline Woes, Iraq Talks and the Nuclear Issue that Iran may be making its energy problems public not to signal vulnerability or to seek an end to sanctions against the country, but as a negotiating tactic aimed at protecting at least part of its controversial nuclear program. In other words, the country is trying to illustrate that it needs nuclear power too much to shutter the program entirely.
"Iran wants to use its nuclear program as its chief bargaining chip in negotiations over Iraq," Stratfor says. "Iran hopes this will ensure that any settlement it reaches with Washington will not end up with Iran having to completely capitulate on the nuclear issue. Instead, Iran would place curbs on the enrichment process as a show of good faith." The Bush administration, backed by nervous governments of other Gulf nations, is loath to give an inch to Iran on the nuclear issue. But Stratfor says that growing domestic pressure on President Bush to resolve the situation in Iraq means "the Iranians might be successful in shaping the next round of negotiations."
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