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We're at the dawn of a rising youth voter movement with millions of young voters energized and involved in the 2008 presidential election and likely to remain committed to the process for years to come. Voters under age 30 have been breaking all types of records in the primary season, doubling, tripling and in some states quadrupling turnout and registration from eight years ago.
It won't be a onetime phenomenon. Most young first-time voters will keep at it, even if their candidate loses this time around. Voting tends to be habit-forming. Easier procedures for registration in recent years, whether on campus, at a motor vehicle department or through Internet downloads, get more young citizens into the process earlier.
For decades, young voters under 30 have been an underwhelming part of the electorate with usually well fewer than half turning up at the polls in a general election and about a quarter in off-year congressional elections. This year will be different. Turnout of younger voters should top 50% in November. While trends vary from state to state, young voters in general favor Democrats by about 2-1 in recent elections, though many are registering as independents. That will be another reason why both party nominees will launch appeals to independent voters this year, young and old. Turnout and volunteerism are also higher in other age groups this year, especially for Democrats, suggesting a large new flock of activists who will likely remain committed throughout their lives.
Young voters, especially anti-Iraq war voters, are a big plus for Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee. They have picked him by a roughly 60-40 split in Democratic primaries to date. Obama's appeal is his offer of a clear and historic break from status quo politics. Speeches against the war in Iraq also turn on younger voters. Even struggling in the late innings of the nomination race, Obama typically dominates the youth vote against Hillary Clinton, but the degree varies considerably from state to state. Clinton has also tapped into younger voters, especially young women, with sophisticated grassroots campaigns, Web organizing, YouTube video placements and Internet campaign alerts and such.
The Republican nominee, John McCain, will also try to appeal to young voters. He draws well on campuses and is admired for his straight talk and maverick image.
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