Will Clinton-Obama Be the Ticket in 2008?

They're archrivals for the Democratic nomination now -- but they could end up on the same team.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

August 14, 2007

The possibility of a Clinton-Obama presidential ticket is growing. Yes, it is still early and much can and will change in this marathon presidential campaign. But Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are way ahead of the pack and showing sustained strength. Unless one of them stumbles unexpectedly, it will be a two-person race. And Clinton leads by 20 percentage points or more in many polls, a lead that will prove hard for Obama to overtake.

If Clinton gets the nod, she may well ask Obama to be her vice presidential nominee, making the 2008 election historic -- with the first woman at the head of a major party ticket and the first African-American candidate for vice president.

Obama would probably agree. The barbs the two are trading now, as the campaign heats up, won't have a long-lasting effect on their relations. And at 46, Obama has plenty of time for a future bid. Being vice president would only help win over voters who aren't sure he has enough experience for the top job.

The matchup would have big advantages: Obama's fund-raising, for starters. He's already outpacing everyone, especially with his legions of small-dollar donors who can be tapped again in a general election campaign. Clinton and Obama could raise far more together than any immediate GOP ticket could hope to.

Plus Obama could increase Democratic turnout. Barely known only three years ago, he's now seen as an agent of change on the national stage, and he can excite the base in ways Clinton and others can't. That could help in states with big cities that have large minority populations, such as Ohio, Florida and Louisiana. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts failed to win these states in 2004, sealing his defeat.

But pairing a woman and a black man poses challenges. It may be too much for more-conservative Democrats and independents who might feel more comfortable voting for a moderate centrist Republican ticket. Winning any state in the South, save perhaps Florida, would be tough. There's another risk, too: Having two senators on the same ticket may not sell well. It hasn't worked since 1960 when John F. Kennedy tapped Lyndon Johnson as his running mate. Four of the last five presidents were governors.

If the Clinton-Obama teaming appears too fraught with risk, Clinton may opt instead for a governor, such as New Mexico's Bill Richardson or former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. Such a move would allow her to argue the ticket has much-needed executive experience.

And what if Obama manages to win the presidential nomination? Would Hillary Clinton be his running mate? Not a chance. After eight years as first lady, she's not about to play second fiddle again.

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