Election 2008: What to Watch for

The longest presidential election campaign in history is finally coming to an end (most likely).

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

November 4, 2008

Tens of millions are braving long lines at the polls and final ad blitzes and even the weather in some areas to cast a vote in the most historic election in modern times.

Outspent, out-organized and out-hustled in the final weeks, John McCain is not out of the race, but he needs almost every break to fall his way, including a large Republican get-out-the-vote operation that, while once legendary, has been matched and possibly improved upon by Democrats.

A look at the past few days is telling: McCain's frenetic campaigning and spending have largely been in states that would have settled easily in the Republican column in other years: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, Missouri and North Carolina plus the legendary toss-up state of Florida. The only state carried by Democrats in 2004 that McCain is even trying to win is Pennsylvania, while Barack Obama is competing in up to a dozen states that Bush won.

Our examination of the electoral vote map shows Obama with a meaningful lead in states accounting for 291 electoral votes, 21 more than needed for victory, with 163 leaning to McCain and the rest judged to be toss-ups.

If McCain can't take Pennsylvania away from the Democrats, and that looks unlikely, he has to take Colorado and Virginia away to have a shot at winning.

Obama, on the other hand, has several paths to 270. Most paths require that he win all of the states John Kerry won in 2004 and one more among several in which he holds a lead. Hence Obama can win, even if McCain edges him out in Florida and Ohio. Unlike previous elections, or what some in the pundit class are still saying, Ohio and Florida may not be the kingmakers this year.

If Obama does win, it will be because he expanded and shook up, with the help of a huge staff and volunteer organization, the red-state/blue-state status quo that has defined recent elections, forcing a lesser-funded opponent to scramble on defense and simply gamble on the Obama campaign fumbling repeatedly.

McCain has taken a beating in some areas, including from conservatives, in recent days over the handling of his campaign. That McCain is as close as he is in a year that looks dark for Republicans, what with concerns over the economy, housing, jobs, recession, etc., is a clear sign that there are still questions about Obama in many voters' minds.

Turnout, as always, is key. Early voting in some 30 states was amazingly strong, with more Democrats than Republicans showing up, especially among African-Americans in states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana.

There are also large Democratic registration increases, which don't necessarily mean a surge in actual votes, but nonetheless amount to advantage, favoring Democrats.

Voting irregularities, disputes and challenges will no doubt color some state results. Odds of another historic recount, á la 2000 Bush vs. Gore, are low. Still, one side or the other will be despondent over the outcome after such a long campaign and with so much of the national agenda at stake. Look for plenty of partisan-fueled shouting over voter suppression charges and illegitimate money, etc. It's a sign of a closely divided electorate and the passions stirred up by close races, long campaigns and weary staffs.

Congress. Voters will also change the look and power balance of Congress. It will be more Democratic in both chambers. In the House, we expect 20 to 30 or possibly more Democratic pickups, adding to the Democrats' current 236-199 advantage.

In the Senate, probably six to eight and possibly even nine or 10 Democratic pickups are in the picture, putting them right near the 60 needed to run the Senate more or less free of Republican obstacles and procedural objections. If you're watching early returns, keep an eye on Kentucky, North Carolina and Georgia. All three states have once safe Republican incumbents now scrambling to hold their seats. Upsets there would portend badly across the country for other Republicans in tight contests.

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