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Obama Widens Lead
With a Month to Go
PREVIOUS ISSUES
Sen. John McCain went a long way toward sewing up the Republican nomination last night, but the results show he still faces some formidable challenges in the weeks ahead. McCain took a huge lead and locked up nearly half the delegates needed for nomination with big wins in California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, while Mike Huckabee showed surprising strength in the South, and Mitt Romney won a scattering of states, including Massachusetts, Utah and Minnesota.
It would take a meltdown for McCain to lose, but Romney and Huckabee vowed to stay in the race, complicating McCain's bid to unite the party around him. McCain's two opponents split the conservative vote, helping him advance, but demonstrating that the front-runner has yet to get much support among that crucial segment of Republican voters.
McCain will continue making overtures to conservatives in coming days, banking that his momentum and pledges will appeal to a party base that ultimately will see the importance of uniting to win in November. On Thursday, he will address the influential Conservative Political Action Committee's annual meeting in Washington. Romney and Huckabee will also speak to the group.
If he is to win the nomination, McCain will sorely need some Southern conservative power on the ticket, and a McCain-Huckabee ticket will be closely considered, especially now that Huckabee has been able to act as a brake on Romney with social conservatives. Huckabee's next best opportunity will be in Texas on March 4 and Mississippi on March 11. But it is hard to see him doing very well in any other states coming up.
On the Democratic side, it'll be a down-and-dirty scramble for delegates -- state by state and district by district -- between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Each can claim victories last night. Obama won more states, but Clinton won the two biggest -- California and New York -- and in any event, the proportional distribution of delegates ensured that the two are almost even on that count going forward. Obama has some advantages ahead -- more smaller primaries that play to his strength and more money -- but the race will clearly go on for weeks and could go all the way to the August convention, where a fight for every delegate is possible.
Obama proved he can win large portions of white voters -- he garnered about 40%, according to exit polls -- and that he can outscore Clinton with younger voters and male voters. Clinton scored well with women voters and, importantly in California, Arizona and New Jersey, with Hispanic voters, far outpacing Obama in these two crucial categories.
Neither can claim a distinct advantage going forward, although both will engage in much spin to that effect in the next few days. Look for fierce fights in the next set of primaries: Nebraska, Louisiana and Washington on Saturday and the Feb. 12 contests in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. After that come Hawaii and Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont on March 4.
Superdelegates -- party luminaries free to vote for whom they want -- account for about 20% of each party's delegate pool and will be increasingly important on the Democratic side. Clinton claims more than Obama, but commitments don't always hold. Many such delegates will wait awhile before making a decision, raising their profile in the next couple of months or longer if the Clinton-Obama race remains super tight.
The large primary turnout yesterday in many states, especially among Democrats, is a sign of high voter interest that will last the year. It's another potential worry, also, for McCain. If the party base does not convincingly unite behind him, he could face the prospect of losing states in November for no other reason than that some conservatives stayed home.
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POSTED BY: Irwin (February 06, 2008 11:47 PM)
Good for you. Go Hillary, Obama. Looking forward to 8 years (at least) of Democratic control of the White House, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
POSTED BY: KW (February 07, 2008 11:24 AM)
Let's be real...they are all imposters, they are politicians! Doesn't matter which party they belong to.
POSTED BY: John MacGregor (February 08, 2008 11:31 PM)
A McCain-Romney ticket would answer all the pressing problems we currently face.
A man with both military and political experience and a man with impeccable financial credentials.
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