Senate Democrats Eye Magic Number of 60

It's still a long shot, but Democrats have a chance to do what Republicans hope is unthinkable: win enough seats to truly control the Senate.

By Jon Frandsen, Senior Editor, Kiplinger.com

July 1, 2008

What once seemed ludicrous to consider is now distinctly possible: Democrats could win a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That would give them enough votes to exercise real control over the chamber, significantly reducing the ability of the minority to relegate Democratic priorities to the legislative graveyard.

Is such an outcome likely? Not yet. It would require a Democratic wave of support so huge that it could sweep away seats long held by popular incumbents in solidly red states. The danger signs of such a political tsunami are clearly in evidence, but the election is still too far off, and the mood of the electorate too volatile, for any political analyst to confidently conclude that a solid trend is taking shape.

But Republicans should be deeply troubled. The prospect of Democrats picking up the nine or more seats they would need to hit the magic number of 60 is far more conceivable at this stage of the campaign than the idea that Democrats could take control of the Senate was in 2006. Such a notion on Independence Day two years ago seemed preposterous to Republicans and a pipe dream for Democrats.

It's hard to overstate the political power that would come with the ability to routinely block GOP-led filibusters. That would be a huge advantage for a President Barack Obama and a giant headache for a President John McCain. It would make it far more likely that Democrats could achieve goals long thwarted by Republicans -- everything from funding for the Iraq war to civil liberties issues to the current housing relief bill that is bottled up.

One of the biggest problems for Republicans right now is that the very idea of a Democratic landslide makes the job of holding on to vulnerable seats even harder. The snowball effect is a very real phenomenon in politics.

Momentum is more than a matter of perception. When it seems apparent this early in a campaign, it translates into substantive things that spell success on Election Day: money, organization and, ultimately, turnout. Not to mention that it can suck up oxygen from the other side. The campaign troops become dispirited and money dries up -- and the number of races that need a good turnout and lots of money just keeps expanding.

Under the best of circumstances, this was always destined to be a tough year for Senate Republicans. They start off having to defend five open seats -- Virginia, Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska and Colorado -- because of retirements (while the Democrats have none). They can count on losing at least three of those. Then there are at least four seats that lean toward Democrats or are toss-ups: Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon and Mississippi, where the seat vacated by Trent Lott has been filled since December by Republican appointee Roger Wicker. The GOP can anticipate losing at least two of those. In addition, Maine and Minnesota, which lean Democratic but have GOP incumbents, could easily slip in a strong Democratic year. Meanwhile, the only seat Republicans have a realistic chance to pick up is the one held by Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.

That means in the very best of circumstances, Republicans lose a net of four seats. In a year so favorable to Democrats, a half dozen is more likely, and seven or even eight is certainly possible.

However, there is a far bigger danger sign for Republicans. A growing number of seats in states that would normally be regarded as safe -- seats held by veteran incumbents in solidly red states -- appear vulnerable. Polls show that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Pat Roberts of Kansas and John Cornyn of Texas face credible challenges. McConnell appears to be in the most trouble. Dole has a double-digit lead in most polls, but North Carolina is one of several Southern states that Democrats think Barack Obama could win, which would hurt her. Also, polls in all four of those states show the incumbents hovering at or under 50% -- a sure political distress signal.

If Democrats were to win even two of those seats, it would signal that a wave of national discontent had reached deep into traditionally Republican enclaves. It would be a sure bet that the vast majority of the more vulnerable incumbents in the other states would be swept away as well.

Multiple factors are working against Republicans right now:

• Senate races are generally local affairs and independent of national issues, but these trends suggest that voters are seeing Senate contests this year as more of a national referendum and appear ready to reward one party and punish the other for what they see as the sour state of the union, just as they did in 2006.

• The GOP is a deeply wounded party: Self-identified Democrats comfortably outnumber Republicans. Worse, the party is viewed with much skepticism by much of the country, including many in the conservative base who believe their party has lost its ideological bearings. "If we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf," says veteran GOP strategist Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia.

• Not only is the party in danger of seeing its own base suppressed and that of the Democrats energized, there is a wave of new voters, the vast majority of them Democrats and supporters of Obama. While incumbency is normally a huge advantage, it is of little meaning to these new and mostly younger voters. The same goes for many voters who reliably show up during presidential election years but skip most others.

With such potent forces at play and gathering strength, the idea of Democrats gaining 10 or even 11 seats is well within the realm of reason.

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