Presidential Race: Picking Up Speed

We see a nailbiter of a race in which the economy, rather than national security, will be the No. 1 issue.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

August 20, 2008

Fasten your political seat belt. The real race for the White House is about to begin. It may feel as if the campaign has been under way for months already. But that was all just preliminary heats. Starting with the two parties' conventions in the last week of August and first week of September, the candidates start down the final course. And for drama and a cliff-hanging ending, it's likely to rival the Olympics.

It will be a close contest. A great many voters are still undecided. Though the primary season generated huge interest, it was mostly among the hard-core partisans. It's the others -- moderates and independents -- who will ultimately decide the race. Only if one or the other candidate's campaign were to suffer a major meltdown is a landslide possible.

Ignore the national polls. Yes, Barack Obama is ahead, but surveys taken now don't mean a lot. Most polls pressure respondents to choose a candidate, and many who do so are actually unsure. It's why early polls can be enormously deceptive, even though they affect how the candidates run and what they say.

The campaign will be fought state by state, with the winner claiming at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes, representing the number of congressional seats in each state plus the District of Columbia. Generally, we expect John McCain will do well in the South, the Midwest and Mountain states. Obama will rack up electoral votes in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest and the West Coast.

A surprising number of states are up for grabs, however. In addition to the usual swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Ohio, this year Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Minnesota, New Hampshire and possibly Alaska will be in play, with both sides pulling out all the stops campaigning there. Check our electoral map for the latest in how the landscape looks. Small shifts in the swing states could have a big impact. Other factors that may prove decisive include turnout by young voters, Hispanics and African-Americans and whether or not Hillary Clinton backers show up at the polls for Obama.

The vice presidential picks by each nominee probably won't matter much, though a bad one can hurt. Obama will try to shore up his lack of experience on national security, and McCain will select someone with a youthful image but enough experience to assure voters about a presidential succession, if necessary.

The ailing economy will almost certainly dominate the fall campaign. Housing foreclosures, tight family budgets, the credit crunch, gas prices, job losses and inflation all combine to create a powerful backdrop in voters' minds and moods.

Conventional wisdom says this will help Obama. When voters are worried, they tend to blame the party in power in the White House, and that's reflected in President Bush's sustained low approval ratings. But it is far from clear that Obama can win on the state of the economy alone. McCain is leveraging concern over energy prices to win points, portraying energy troubles as a national security issue. His push for more offshore oil drilling is resonating with the public, putting Obama and the Democratic Party on the defensive and even leading to some fissures among Democratic leaders about whether limited expansion of deep-sea drilling might be needed.

Russia's incursion into Georgia and the fragile military truce there have put foreign policy back on the front burner. That's also good for McCain, if it lasts. Foreign affairs and national security are his sweet spots, where voters give him the edge. It's a problem area for Obama, who, though deft in the language and nuances of foreign policy, must prove that he can handle national security crises better than McCain. Meanwhile, continued signs of progress in Iraq would diminish the military mission in Iraq as a keystone issue. McCain will claim credit for progress, saying the surge he backed worked. Antiwar voters will vote for Obama at any rate, no matter the situation in Iraq come November, and even if they want a faster withdrawal than either candidate would allow.

Both candidates have a lot at stake in the three debates this fall. They've had plenty of practice, and both generally excel in the limited TV format. McCain's worry is a gaffe of some sort that makes him look old or out of touch. Obama, on the other hand, needs to make voters feel comfortable about him being commander in chief after his short record in public service.

Turnout is Obama's big edge. Democrats are way ahead in registrations, and Obama supporters are far more enthusiastic and therefore more likely to vote. McCain's big advantage is that he's more experienced, more trusted and better known. If today's undecideds still have doubts about Obama in November, they're more likely to opt for the safer pick.

Race is a huge unknown. It certainly matters, but no one can say how much. Polling is notoriously inaccurate on the issue of whether race influences choice. It will undoubtedly hurt Obama in some regions. But race is also likely to put some traditional red states in play, including Virginia and North Carolina, and maybe even Georgia.

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