2008 Presidential Election: The California Factor

The Golden State could play the role of kingmaker in the race for the White House.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

May 18, 2007

California could well be pivotal in the next presidential election, not only in the gigantic Super Tuesday presidential primaries now scheduled in February, but also in the general election next November.

The state hasn't been a battleground since 1988 when George H.W. Bush came out on top in a close race against Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. In subsequent elections, Democrats have taken the state's huge prize of 55 electoral votes for granted. The Democratic nominee in the past four elections carried the state with an average of 1.2 million votes. In 2004, there was hardly a contest as Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry captured 54% of the vote to President George W. Bush's 44%.

The odds still favor Democrats in 2008, but change may be in the wind, starting with the front-packed primary schedule. California, like several other states, moved up its primary to Feb. 5, giving it a potentially decisive role in the nomination battle and forcing candidates in both parties to campaign there early and often. That's a far cry from previous elections when the state's June primary often made it an afterthought, leaving it with little influence over presidential contenders' positions and eventual party platforms.

Also different this time is the "Governator" effect. Arnold Schwarzenegger, California's popular Republican governor, will work hard to make the state competitive in the fall. Republicans probably need a moderate candidate to have a chance to triumph. That's in part because Schwarzenegger won't warm easily to a conservative and in part because cross-party appeal is crucial for Republican candidates. California's registered voters are 43% Democrat, 35% Republican and 22% independent.

That means a socially moderate, popular and charismatic Republican campaigner has the best chance, possibly former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, ex-Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee or Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

In fact, the primaries may push the Republicans toward that kind of candidate by forcing the party's major candidates to play to major California issues, especially global warming, health care and immigration reform if it is not completed this year. The last issue is crucial, given California's large Hispanic population. To win the state, the GOP nominee will need about 35% of the Latino vote. That's approximately what Schwarzenegger pulled in his two statewide victories.

Among the leading GOP contenders, so far only McCain has spoken forcefully for the kind of guest worker program, with its promise of a path to eventual citizenship for millions of undocumented workers, that may appeal to Hispanic voters. But GOP candidates also don't want to alienate core conservative supporters in California or elsewhere, and many in the Republican base oppose easing conditions for illegal workers.

Campaigning in California is costly because of its size, population and pricey television markets, so a serious statewide run would benefit Republicans in another way, too. It would force the Democratic nominee to spend millions to shore up support for what has been largely safe Democratic territory in the past.

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