Pakistan: The U.S. Angle

Benazir Bhutto's assassination will put the war on terror front and center again for the White House and for presidential candidates.

By Andrew C. Schneider, Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

December 27, 2007

The assassination of Pakistan's Benazir Bhutto creates two serious problems for President Bush as he attempts to mark a few successes during his last year in office. Pakistan's status as a nuclear power and as a key battleground in the war on terrorism ensures that the country will dominate the White House's foreign policy agenda in 2008.

The event signals that al Qaeda -- which has taken credit for the killing of the former Pakistani prime minister -- is alive and kicking and capable of carrying out attacks that damage U.S. interests. Granted, this latest attack took place in al Qaeda's backyard rather than in such places as New York, London or Madrid. But the U.S. had been counting on Bhutto's participation in next month's Pakistani parliamentary elections to help guide the country back toward a stable, democratic path that would allow it to take a more robust approach to combating Islamist extremism -- particularly the Taliban and al Qaeda itself. This constitutes a setback for the U.S. in the fight against these groups, both in Pakistan and over the border in Afghanistan.

Second, Bhutto's death creates the possibility of a dangerous political vacuum in Pakistan. Initially, the biggest political beneficiary from Bhutto's death is likely to be President Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf's own party, the Pakistan Muslim League, was expected to be trounced in the upcoming parliamentary elections by Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. But since Bhutto dominated the PPP so thoroughly, there's a strong chance the party will collapse with her passing, her supporters flowing to different claimants to her mantle.

Some Bhutto supporters are likely to go to Sharif, who appeared at the hospital where Bhutto's body was taken and publicly aligned himself with her followers. But some of them will either sit out the race or drift to candidates with far less name recognition than Sharif, playing to the advantage of Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League and the collection of Islamist parties that vote with it in parliament.

Musharraf's own rule may well be in danger, raising the chilling prospect of a country on the brink of anarchy. Conspiracy theories linking Musharraf to Bhutto's killing started proliferating among Bhutto's followers within minutes of the assassination, driven in part by charges dating back to the October attempt on Bhutto's life that Musharraf's government was not providing sufficient security to guard against such attacks. It's unlikely that Musharraf or his followers bear any direct responsibility for the assassination, but the rumors alone will fuel a fresh upsurge of antigovernment protests mere days after Musharraf ended the self-imposed state of emergency. If Musharraf reimposes martial law and postpones parliamentary elections again -- which is a strong possibility -- the country could swiftly tip into civil war.

Danielle Pletka, vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, spells out what this would mean: "[Much of] Pakistan will begin to resemble the tribal areas now controlled by the Taliban and al Qaeda. That means operational safe haven for America's enemies. And the last time they had that, we had 9/11." Unlike al Qaeda's previous safe haven in Afghanistan, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. The U.S.' first priority would be to work closely with Pakistan's military to ensure that those weapons did not fall into al Qaeda's hands.

The assassination may also have an impact on the U.S. presidential election. At a minimum, it will push campaign news down or off the front page while reminding voters that the world remains a very dangerous place because of the threat of terrorism. To the extent that lasts through the first contests in Iowa on Jan. 3 and New Hampshire on Jan. 8, it may help candidates perceived as having strong national security positions and experience, particularly Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Several candidates have already rushed out statements expressing support for the Pakistani people and reaffirming the importance of continuing the war on terrorism. The assassination is certain to be part of the campaign debate over the next several days, but it’s not likely to become the central issue unless problems in the area escalate rapidly.

Richard Sammon contributed to this article.

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