Obama, McCain Put More States in Play

The number of toss-up states that will decide the next president is growing rapidly.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

July 3, 2008

This is bound to be a very different kind of presidential election showdown as both Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama fight for new states on the battleground Electoral College map.

Chalk it up to changing demographics and a surge in voter registration, especially from young people and African-Americans and a likely spurt in overall participation, fueled by a perception that this is a "change" election that matters even more than most.

The presidential election is won by amassing 270 or more electoral votes out of 538. As in previous presidential elections, it is winner-take-all in every state, except for Maine and Nebraska, which can split their few electoral votes. A state's number of electoral votes is equal to its number of seats in the House plus two for its Senate seats.

At this point, McCain can be relatively sure of 127 electoral votes from 15 safe states such as Arizona, Idaho, Oklahoma and Texas. Obama can safely count 160 electoral votes from the likes of New York, California, Massachusetts, Maryland and eight other states. In addition to the perennial list of swing states -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan -- there are several more to watch this year.

Virginia. With 13 electoral votes, Virginia is a big prize that could matter a lot. It hasn't voted Democratic in the last 10 elections, but recent polls show a very close race between Obama and McCain, and Democrats increasingly are a force in the populous northern part of the state. Obama will fight hard here, spending resources. And he'll get a lift from popular former Gov. Mark Warner (D), considered a shoo-in for the open Senate seat. McCain needs a strong rural turnout.

Colorado. Its nine electoral votes have gone to Republicans in every presidential election since 1992, but there's a new Democratic tide moving in, especially in Boulder, Colorado Springs and parts of Denver. Another factor is a large and fairly new Hispanic minority in the state, which is leaning Democratic. Plus, Democrats stand a good chance of picking up an open Senate seat, which would help boost turnout.

New Mexico. It has only five votes, but both parties will fight for them, with the outcome very much in doubt. President Bush barely carried it in 2004 and narrowly lost it in 2000. Bill Richardson, a popular Democratic governor and former presidential candidate, will work hard to swing it to Obama. McCain needs to talk tougher on illegal immigration controls to appease Republicans here. Some hard-line Republicans who question his commitment might stay home on Election Day.

Nevada. Like New Mexico, Nevada's electoral vote contribution is small -- five -- and only important in a close race. It voted Democratic in 1996, then went twice for Bush, although just barely in 2004. Sprawling Henderson County and other areas near Las Vegas and Reno will likely decide the outcome. Labor unions are working Las Vegas hard this time. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee, narrowly lost the state, but Obama is proving more popular with Nevadans.

New Hampshire. One of the few New England states up for grabs, New Hampshire voted for John Kerry in 2004 and Bush in 2000. McCain, who won the primary here (Obama lost to Hillary Clinton), has an early edge. He held more than 100 town meetings and thrives on the retail coffee-klatch politics that are legendary in the state. But with only four electoral votes smack in the middle of the Democratic leaning Northeast, how much time can he afford to spend here? Obama won't write it off, even as he focuses on larger prizes.

North Carolina. It last voted Democratic in 1976. That's an impressive run for the GOP, but McCain has only a slight edge this time, and with 15 electoral votes, it's a juicy target for Obama. North Carolina's population shifts in recent years are important. High-tech companies and research firms have sprouted, drawing in new residents from other states. Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D) will be a plus for Obama. Big military bases and surrounding military communities will lean toward McCain.

Georgia. Many think this is safe for McCain. But it could be a surprise swing state, depending on turnout. Like North Carolina, Georgia has 15 electoral votes. It last voted Democratic in 1992, an embarrassing Southern defeat for former President George H.W. Bush running against Bill Clinton. McCain will have to keep his eye on it. Atlanta's constantly changing population and sprawling growth are key. A big turnout here could help Obama. But many Georgia Democrats statewide are also very conservative, a possible plus for McCain. An unknown is the effect of former Georgia GOP Rep. Bob Barr's run as the Libertarian candidate, with some predicting he'll cut into McCain's total.

Minnesota. It has 10 votes and last voted Republican in 1972, an impressive run for Democrats. But John Kerry just barely won it in 2004. Plus, the election will happen only two months after the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul. A successful convention and a lot of free media coverage could give some lift to McCain. Obama rates a slight edge here for now.

Money and time. In the general election, the two most precious things are time and money to spend in battleground states. Money is more of an issue for John McCain, who will take $84 million in public financing for use after the convention. Obama is opting out of the public funding system, giving him as much as a three-to-one money advantage. But it all will be spent in two months, and it can't be spent everywhere.

The limit on McCain will mean fewer big advertising buys. He would love, for instance, to be competitive in California (55 votes), which last voted Republican in 1988. But doing so would be enormously expensive and come at the cost of working on better prospects, such as Georgia and Florida. The same may be true in New Jersey (15 votes), which also last voted Republican in 1988, but that has been close in recent cycles and currently leans to Obama. McCain's ultimate effort there may be limited.

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