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Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's big win in North Carolina and very narrow loss in Indiana tighten his numerical grip on the Democratic nomination and make it far more difficult for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton to persuade the all-important superdelegates to give her the nod. Obama's showing was all the more impressive because it followed several tough weeks as he battled to overcome the negative effect of comments made by his former pastor and by his own description of voter bitterness.
Clinton failed to win Indiana with the convincing margin she needed to reshape the contest to decide who will face Republican Sen. John McCain (AZ) in the fall. Her call to roughly 270 superdelegates who have yet to commit to hold their fire after winning big states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio looks to be falling flat and may now be predicated exclusively on an unknown bombshell or mishap that would deflate Obama's prospects.
Also, her gamble on pushing for a gas tax holiday seems to have failed. It may even have helped Obama appear more principled in his opposition to what he calls a typical Washington gimmick that looks good but doesn't solve anything.
A near stampede of superdelegates to Obama could happen this week and next. Such a move would hasten the end and allow more time before the August convention for the party to heal from its internal divisions and bitterness and prepare for the fall race.
Loss of more superdelegates after last night is only one of the immense challenges for Clinton. Obama has methodically gained more delegates and a larger lead in the popular vote -- enough last night, for instance, to erase the gains Clinton made with her win in Pennsylvania. Clinton had pinned her hopes on beating Obama in the overall popular vote, but that now appears almost impossible. There aren't enough contests left for her to overcome his lead in either delegates or the popular vote.
With each race, large and small, Obama reduces the number of superdelegates he needs to win, even with allowances made, if the party so decides, to include results from Michigan's and Florida's disputed primaries. They may not matter now. An agreement may be reached later this month for them to be seated at the convention, knowing that they won't change the result.
Clinton, now running into big money problems that may become even bigger, has only a few bright spots to look forward to in the near term. With support from rural white working class voters, she will win the West Virginia primary on May 13 and probably the Kentucky primary on May 20, but neither may matter all that much. Those states aren't large enough to recast the race, even with a big win. Obama will most likely cruise to victory in Oregon on May 20, as well as in South Dakota and Montana on June 3.
The last half of May could well be the final step in the process, leading Clinton to respectfully bow out of the race with a couple of late wins that won't change the game but will display her continued popularity. Don't look for a highly partisan, negative campaign from here on out. At this point, negative attacks on Obama may hurt Clinton within the party more than help her. Obama will urge supporters not to aim their political artillery at Clinton, an olive branch of sorts to allow her a soft exit and a chance to play the role of a healer. Obama may even offer to retire her debt.
Although Obama has regained his step and disproved critics who said that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright was sinking his chances, he made only slight marginal gains with white working class voters yesterday and, most notably, remains weak with white women voters, losing them 2 to 1. Those divisions are likely to show up in the remaining contests, too, keeping alive questions about whether he and the party can deliver those two groups, a huge and critical part of the electorate, in the fall.
Democrats are unlikely to entirely unite, even with a full effort by Obama and Clinton, who is not likely to be on the same ticket, although talk will persist. That may be a reason for McCain to feel that he has a good chance in November, even as the rest of the Republican Party suffers through congressional losses amid low approval ratings. But there's a caution signal for McCain from last night, too. Voters who participated in exit polls said that the weak economy, not Iraq, was far and away the most important issue on their minds. That could well be the case through the summer and fall, defining the theme and tone of the election in a way that may not suit him best.
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POSTED BY: SMS67 (May 08, 2008 04:48 PM)
So let's see what Clinton is claiming again -- that "Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."
Obama's support among whites is actually increasing compared to Ohio, Mississippi and Pennsylvania. She lied about that.
Obama's support among "hard working Americans", which is code for poorer Americans, has also increased over those in previous contests, save for Mississippi, where the under-$50K vote was overwhelmingly black.
Obama's numbers among college grads is static to increasing. We don't have exit poll breakdowns for education by race, and we can assume North Carolina's huge numbers with "no college" are due to the large African American percentages in the state. But what about Indiana, a state that is whiter (83.9%) than Pennsylvania (82.1%), Ohio (82.9%) and Texas (48.3%)? Despite the demographic disadvantage, Obama actually increased his support among voters with no college degrees.
So how can Clinton be so wrong? Because she's citing an AP-Yahoo News poll from back on May 3rd. Rather than cite actual voter data, she is basing her claims on an old poll taken before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
Yup. That's what Hillary Clinton has been reduced to. Ignoring actual votes and cherry picking polls.
Which really, shouldn't surprise anyone. She's already ignored and belittled every state and voter demographic that doesn't support her. So it only follows that since in her world, the only things that are important are things that support her, she'd ignore election results in favor of the one (outdated) poll that confirms her manufactured reality.
POSTED BY: warbird (May 09, 2008 08:58 AM)
Hillary can thank Bill for her defeat. His comparison of Jesse Jackson to Obama, and his condescending attitude toward those that don't support them finally opened the eyes of the black voter. The Clinton's are users only interested in the things that serve their ends. They have finally been humbled. It's the bottom of the ninth, two outs, nobody on base, down thirty runs, and yet in their delusional world they still believe they can somehow win. Goodbye and good riddance to them both!
POSTED BY: VLW (May 11, 2008 12:23 PM)
Warbird, you are right, I believe that the past few months have opened the eyes of many Black Clinton supporters. This did not have to be about race, the Clintons had both sides and giving Obama a run for the money. Not now if Blacks are really listening and I hope they are listening to the true colors of the Clintons. Bill had the Black support and in turn gave it to Hillary. WAKE UP BLACK AMERICANS they are not our friends unless we are working for them as Slaves once again in America. Obama is a freshness to a souring America.
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