New Congress Finds Democrats at a Crossroads

Democrats are hoping a move to the center can fuel their comeback strategy.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

January 3, 2005

Two months after the November elections, Democratic Party leaders are honing in on a strategy as they prepare for an onslaught of Republican legislative initiatives: Social Security reform, energy legislation, a myriad of foreign policy issues, tort reform and hundreds of regulations affecting businesses as well as Bush's efforts to push conservative judicial appointees and a move to toughen immigration laws.

The Democratic strategy is to move to the middle. When the new session convenes on Jan. 4 and rolls into high gear later in the month, look for Democrats to settle on a centralist message that includes themes stressing economic opportunity, stronger defense and national security, aggressive counterterrorism efforts and fiscal responsibility.

Look for an effort to mute any polarizing and ideologically driven rhetoric on divisive social issues, such as gay rights, guns and abortion. Even on Supreme Court vacancies, Democrats will try to avoid an opportunity to launch an all-out abortion fight, which many believe would be counterproductive, especially if Bush's Court nominees don't reveal their positions on abortion.

The reason is that Democratic leaders have concluded that just saying "no" won't work. The last election proved that being the anti-Bush party is not enough because focusing on its most loyal base—a declining union labor force and liberals and minorities from the Northeast—doesn't produce enough votes to win.

The election results also generated warnings for Democrats in the loss of support from key demographic groups, including single and married women, college graduates, Catholics, seniors, Hispanics and other minorities. Republicans have built a larger advantage in almost every category of voters making over $40,000 a year, the lowest rung of the huge middle class.

To try to reverse the trend, Democrats believe they must improve their appeal to the broad portion of the middle class that isn't firmly in one camp or the other. Many in that group are uneasy with Bush's policies but aren't convinced that Democrats offer better alternatives. Much will depend, therefore, on how Democrats flesh out their centralist theme on specific issues, especially Social Security, terrorism and economic policy.

The first signs of the Democrats' stance will be in their reactions to President Bush's State of the Union address in late January and his 2006 budget at its unveiling in early February. They'll taunt Bush to veto GOP-passed bills that raise spending, but at the same time, they will champion popular domestic programs that will be on Bush's budget chopping block, including Medicaid and medical research, education grants and support for police.

They will then combine and stress themes of middle-class opportunity and personal responsibility and will publicly promote national service for young graduates, even though prospects for passage of anything as sweeping as that are low.

They'll also take a more vocal stand than in the past on some cultural issues, such as opposing excessive sex and violence on television and video games, drug abuse and underage drinking.

There will be divisions over policy and criticisms from both sides of the aisle that Democrats are being too much like the Republicans, but the leadership will send the message from above that the path out of the wilderness for Democrats is in the heartland and has the middle class written all over it.

Focusing on the broad middle class, especially in midwestern and southwestern states that Bush won by small margins, is a long-term strategy that the Democratic party will most likely follow through this decade and beyond.