La Niña Likely to Linger
The longer the weather anomaly lasts next year, the worse that drought conditions will be throughout the southern U.S.
By Ed Maixner, Editor, The Kiplinger Agriculture Letter
November 16, 2007
La Niña, the ocean-spawned weather phenomenon, will stick around through the spring and possibly into next summer as well. Temperatures of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean waters that beget the anomaly are growing colder, bolstering La Niña's effects.
"All the signs are there" for those effects to persist and even increase for North America, says Douglas LeComte, meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "The recent drop in water temperatures is striking," he says, referring to October's plunge of two to three degrees Celsius below normal, west of the South American coast.
That can be either good or bad news, depending on your location.
The Northwest will get some relief from water supply problems. The region is already seeing more rainfall. It can also expect more snow than usual this winter, which will add to the snowpack throughout the northern Rockies and Cascade Mountains, ensuring greater river flows next summer in that part of the country.
But in the southern states, look for dry weather to persist, prolonging difficult conditions not only for farmers, but for water-
starved urban and rural communities, too. Water supplies for irrigation will drop further, crop failures may become more commonplace, and the threat of forest and brush fires in many locations will be heightened.
Continued drought is sure to add to the woes of residents of Georgia and Florida, suffering the effects of a nearly depleted water reservoir that serves both states.
Most of the northern tier of states will see mostly normal weather in coming months, but if La Niña persists through the summer, drought conditions could spread northward. One silver lining: Normal and warmer winter temperatures will help save on heating costs.
In the Southern Hemisphere, which is now in late spring, La Niña's effects are showing up in South America, southern Asia and Australia. Drought is hitting major crops in Brazil. Australia expects to lose about half of its wheat crop. The Southern Hemisphere's woes will benefit U.S. farmers. U.S. grain and oilseed exports will rise to make up for shortfalls caused by reduced production in Australia and other key growing areas.
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Reader Comments (6)
Posted by: J. Leslie Walker at 11/16/2007 06:55:02 PM
We look to you for conservative, intelligent news analysis with special oreintation to finance. For you to make a National Weather Service long range forcast a feature forecast in the Kiplinger Letter is absurd. Do you regularly follow the NWS forecasts for your area as I do for mine? They are far from even near accurate, especially five days out. It is nice that this guy has a big job at the NWS but look at their record and look at their liberal bias. They use only computer programs and decide which of three or four predictions they THINK will be right. They are fully on the "global warming" bandwagon with the same computers and computer programs. Don't waste your space with this tripe.
Posted by: sean marcin at 11/19/2007 04:52:55 PM
Leslie, do you think that you can do better than the NWS?
Posted by: Wendie C. at 11/19/2007 06:32:18 PM
Global warming bandwagon? Oh my goodness, that's too precious! Think of this not as a weather forecast but rather an insight into rising prices and/or opportunities for innovation and new solutions to current problems in the near future. "I ask you, which is the greater threat to science and mankind, accepting a claim that can have no possible benefit, or rejecting a claim that can have great benefit?" -Dr. Edmund Storms
Posted by: J. Gray at 11/19/2007 09:11:35 PM
These are well documented multi-year effects that are not attributed to global warming. La Nina is associated with *current* *lower* sea surface temperatures (if you had actually read the article Leslie) that result in the weather patterns discussed. For how bad long term forecasts are short term climate predictions are fairly decent. Relevant economic conclusions that can be drawn from this pattern revolve around expected crops yields and energy usage. This isn't about propaganda, it is about issues that will affect commodity prices over the next 6 months.
Posted by: Tom G at 11/20/2007 10:28:06 AM
The greatest threat to science and mankind is crying wolf. Get the science right, then defend it, in that order.
Posted by: Helen at 11/26/2007 03:48:03 PM
It's obvious that Leslie, Wendie and Tom did not study their science lessons in school. If they had, they wouldn't make such ignorant comments. And the result of weather -- don't you really think it affects crops that are planted to earn money?