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The current slowdown is expediting a trend in play for decades: a shift from jobs that produce goods to those that provide services, which are up to 80% of the total. It also shines a spotlight on nagging worries about job creation.
The job market is always churning. About 7 million workers lose or leave jobs each quarter and, when the economy is growing, more than 7 million are added to payrolls. Companies hiring right now include makers of aircraft and medical equipment, shipbuilders and refiners of petroleum and sugar. At the same time, losses continue to sock the textile, apparel, auto and other industries.
Employment took another hit in April. With the economy stalling just under 1% growth so far this year, 20,000 net jobs were lost last month, bringing the total this year to 260,000. Will they come back? Probably not, but different and perhaps even better jobs will replace them.
As the economy picks up next year and into 2010, so will hiring. We know the employment gains won't come swiftly. What it will feel like is the "jobless" recovery that followed the 2001 recession. The key question is whether new jobs will be "good" jobs. Or are good ones being wiped out, victims of productivity gains or a shift overseas, as some politicians suggest? Are only low-skill, low-paying jobs growing?
You can bet there will be lots of good jobs. They'll be in health care, engineering, management consulting, accounting, education and legal services. Also needed will be sales representatives, executive assistants, carpenters, auto mechanics, truck drivers, nurses, office managers and more. On average, many will pay as much or more than those in manufacturing.
But there's a hitch, and it's a big one: Training will be critical. John Silvia, chief economist with Wachovia Corp., says, "There is a clear need to improve the quality of labor with a commitment to retraining and education."
It's no secret that well-paid jobs for those who don't get any education beyond the 12th grade are fading. Three decades ago, earning a high school diploma was enough to land a job in a steel mill where a person could move up the ladder to a $30 an hour job. Only 41% of jobs were filled by workers with some college or a college degree.
Today, 60% of jobs are filled by those with more than a high school diploma, and that share will rise to about 70% by 2020. L. Josh Bivens, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, says, "People without a college degree are forced to look for other jobs, as landscapers, janitors, security guards and home health care aides."
Blaming trade agreements for lost jobs misses the mark. Closing routes for trade expansion won't solve the problem. Opening routes to training and education will.
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