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Republicans have little chance of capturing more governorships in November than party members hold now. In fact, Democrats may rule the roost in a few more governor's mansions after the coming election. At present, 28 states have Democratic governors, while 22 have Republicans at the helm. Before the 2006 election, those numbers were reversed, with Democrats in the minority. Candidates of either party can't count on much coattail effect from the presidential race, since the close governors' races are in states that will also be closely contested at the presidential level.
Of the 11 gubernatorial races this year, only two are hotly contested. In Missouri, Democratic Atty. Gen. Jay Nixon has the barest edge over Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) in the race to replace retiring Gov. Matt Blunt (R). The state is closely split between Democratic leaning St. Louis and its sprawling suburbs and Republican leaning Kansas City and rural areas. Both candidates are well known and well financed.
And in Washington, voters face a rematch between Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (R), an ex-state senator. The race could tip on small factors later this year, including the regional economy and job outlook in coastal port areas and in the state's large timber industry, which is starting to feel the effects of the housing slowdown. Four years ago, Gregoire won with just 133 votes, or 1/100th of a point, after a long recount.
In the remaining nine races, the party already in control has the edge. Democrats should keep North Carolina in their column, with Lt. Gov. Beverly Purdue taking over for retiring Gov. Mike Easley. Purdue is favored over several candidates pursuing the GOP nomination in the May 6 primary. Four other currently Democratic governorships should easily remain so. Montanans will return Gov. Brian Schweitzer to a second term. In New Hampshire, Gov. John Lynch will be reelected, as will Gov. Joe Manchin in West Virginia. In Delaware, Lt. Gov. John Carney will succeed retiring Gov. Ruth Ann Minner.
North Dakota's Republican governor, John Hoeven, will easily win reelection. In Indiana, Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) should win reelection, but not by much. He will probably face former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D), who will benefit from disapproval in the state over Daniels' deep budget cuts and a government toll-road leasing deal. But Daniels garners strong support in most parts of the state. The only exception: A Democratic stronghold in the industrial northwest. Two other Republican incumbents – Utah's Gov. Jon Huntsman and Vermont's Gov. Jim Douglas -- will cruise to reelection.
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