GOP Presidential Race Wide Open

National polls show Rudy Giuliani as the front-runner, but there's much more to the story. Here's how the other players are faring, too.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

November 6, 2007

After months of campaigning, almost a dozen debates and millions spent in advertising, at least five GOP contenders still have a fighting chance to win the presidential nomination. A longer, closer race than many expected now seems likely, probably with a surprise or two. And it's unlikely that the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses or the probable Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary will be as influential as they normally are, not with Michigan set to vote Jan. 15, South Carolina and Florida following on Jan. 29 and more than a dozen states voting on Feb. 5.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads in most polls. He has proven more than capable in debates and in dispelling the notion that he can't campaign effectively with his brand of moderate Republicanism outside the Northeast. But he has not yet convinced core conservatives that he's their man. Still, he is effectively downplaying social wedge issues, such as abortion and gun control, and emphasizing his leadership experience, his ability to effectively manage a large bureaucracy and his post-9/11 hands-on governing.

Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, who leads in the money race on the GOP side, will stay in the top tier with his appeal to social conservatives. His somewhat liberal record as governor of Massachusetts and his Mormon faith will be obstacles for some primary voters. Still, unless he stumbles badly in the next two months, Romney can count on doing very well in the Iowa caucuses and in New Hampshire. After that, he's a question mark.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee may have had a slow start, but he, like Ariz. Sen. John McCain, is starting to make some headway, both in debates, early straw polls and on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Look for McCain's star to rise again after an unexpectedly weak start to his candidacy. He's finding new momentum by going on the attack, questioning the conservative credentials and executive experience of Giuliani and Romney in particular and touting his Vietnam War record and his campaign against pork barrel spending in Washington.

There's also growing buzz surrounding Mike Huckabee, ex-governor of Arkansas. A former Baptist preacher, he's an especially good campaigner, in particular with Republican social conservatives who often claim they have been ignored by the Bush administration. Huckabee could prove to be a surprise with early primary voters unhappy with the rest of the field. But he remains a second choice for many, as yet, not their first.

Also becoming a factor in the GOP race: Hillary Clinton. The top GOP candidates all get strong crowd responses and millions of fund-raising dollars when they talk of the prospect (fear, actually) of another Clinton in the White House and what it would mean for taxes, national security, social welfare and health care, etc. Clinton is giving the Republican field the talking points that work best for them.

That may help Giuliani if he's seen as best able to beat Clinton, but that's far from certain. Meanwhile, Clinton is helping to unify the party and pump up its base, two challenges the party's own candidates haven't been able to meet on their own.

One looming danger: Religious conservatives threaten a third party if Giuliani gets the nod. But they'll have to do some soul searching, especially if a third party, even if it rates low in the polls, helps catapult Clinton into the White House.

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