Enter Stage Right: Thompson to Join GOP Contest

Like the veteran actor he is, Thompson has primed the audience to applaud even before he sets foot on stage.

By Mark Willen, Senior Political Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

July 2, 2007

Expect Fred Thompson to vault to the top of the polls as soon as he enters the Republican race for president later this month. The former Tennessee senator and actor has hired his production staff, orchestrated the advance publicity and carefully worked his audience, which is desperate for a star to lead the GOP out of its funk. Many of the conservatives who make up the core of the party -- and who are most likely to vote in the primaries next year -- think Thompson is just what they need.

Already, Thompson scores second in most polls of GOP candidates, ranking behind former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani but ahead of Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Though he has yet to declare, Thompson has been making campaign-style appearances in early-primary states, especially in the South, where he is most popular. Several southern states have primaries in early February that will be crucial to the nomination.

But don't assume Thompson will stay at the top of the polls or in the good graces of conservatives. The push for his candidacy includes more than a little wishful thinking. None of the existing candidates has excited conservatives, and they're looking wherever they can for someone who will. That has made them more willing to gloss over some Thompson qualities that will take a bigger toll as time goes on and he comes under closer scrutiny. For example, on July 2, the New York Times published a front-page story on the lobbying activities of Thompson's sons. Look for more intense coverage in the weeks ahead.

Who'll feel the heat if Thompson runs? Take our poll.

The GOP hope is that Thompson will be another Ronald Reagan, a likable character with a simple but compelling message that renews a spirit of optimism and faith in the American dream. And there are plenty of similarities -- the acting background, the aw-shucks demeanor and the down-home, one-of-us image.

Thompson is no Reagan. For one thing, he's not a conservative ideologue. He's much more of a pragmatist: During his eight years in the Senate, he crossed conservatives on abortion, campaign finance reform and the Clinton impeachment effort. He's not an outsider, either, though he'll cast himself as one. He'll dust off the red pickup truck he used in his Senate campaigns and don his cowboy boots to play the part of a modest country lawyer running to shake up Washington. But it will be hard for the TV star to gloss over more than a dozen years as a high-priced lobbyist or the fact that he now lives in a wealthy suburb of Washington.

Democrats, in turn, have already launched attacks on Thompson, calling him the inside-outsider and pointing to a lack of major legislative accomplishments during his time in the Senate. There are also questions about whether Thompson has enough personal motivation to endure the grueling campaign process. His reputation in the Senate was of one who didn't like to work long hours.

Thompson will need to quickly articulate a policy agenda that's more specific than anything he has said so far on issues such as Iraq and health care, and as he does, he's likely to lose some of his admirers. And he'll have to raise lots of cash fast and set up a national organization to compete in dozens of states simultaneously. Plus the other Republican candidates won't just fade away. Most have more than enough money to stay in the race until February, when a raft of early primaries and caucuses may decide the nominee.

Should Thompson falter, one other conservative Republican will be waiting in the wings: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says he'll decide this fall whether to enter the race.

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