For Barack Obama, A New Chapter and New Challenges

The Democratic nominee-apparent is eager to begin the general election campaign against John McCain, but first he must deal with the Clintons and what they want. That's no easy matter.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

June 4, 2008

The presidential campaign landscape shifted unalterably and historically last night, as Illinois Sen. Barack Obama claimed the Democratic nomination after the longest and closest primary battle in U.S. history. But with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton withholding her endorsement and her supporters pushing to get her the vice presidential slot, Obama still has serious work to do within his own party, even as he starts the fall campaign against Arizona Sen. John McCain. Last night, all three gave major addresses that foretell a close general election fight this fall.

Obama clearly had the biggest night and the largest and most enthusiastic audience. Speaking in Minneapolis, he struck a mark in U.S. history as the first African-American poised to be nominated by a major party for president and challenged Republicans to avoid a fall election based on "fear, innuendo and division."

The themes of his speech, which sounded much more like a convention acceptance speech, or even an inaugural address, in its appeal across party lines, reveals much of what to expect in the fall campaign -- a serious debate with McCain and undecided voters over Iraq, the economy, working families and the values of what he called "Wall Street versus Main Street."

His first challenge, though, is to deal effectively with the question of Hillary Clinton and how to placate her so that she works eagerly to unite party ranks and enlist millions of her supporters, including women, working-class whites and Hispanics -- all crucial voting blocks. Her suggestion yesterday that she would be "open" to being vice president is a question mark for Obama. It doesn't mean she would accept, and it doesn't mean he will offer.

But it does mean he'll have to handle every aspect of this issue delicately. If Obama decides to offer her the slot, he has to do it in a way that shows it was his decision, not something he was forced into. And if he decides not to offer it, he has to find some other way of uniting the party and winning Clinton's enthusiastic endorsement and active support in the fall. A vice presidential decision may not be made for a month or so, which will mean intense daily speculation in political circles.

There are pluses and minuses to having Clinton on the ticket. She would work tirelessly to truly unify the party, and she has all of the Washington experience and executive branch know-how Obama lacks. But she could also complicate his overarching message of changing Washington with a clear break from the past. There's also the question of what role Bill Clinton would play in the campaign and whether his travels and foundation work might raise conflict of interest problems.

Obama gave no hint of his intentions last night, instead focusing his fire on McCain, responding directly to McCain's earlier speech and looking toward the fall campaign. McCain, speaking in Kenner, La., sought to reintroduce himself as the maverick, independent-style Republican he was in the 2000 campaign. He stressed his differences with President Bush and the GOP Congress, as well as his wealth of experience in military and national security judgment. In doing so, he's trying to walk a tightrope -- separating himself from core Republicans without alienating them.

McCain also wrapped himself in the mantle of change, portraying Obama as a young man with old ideas, a liberal who thinks "big government" has the answers. Call it the youth and inexperience factor. McCain also suggested that Obama was an "interesting question mark" whose policies "are not the change we need" -- a slap at Obama's campaign theme of change. Obama rejected all that and insisted that McCain can't embrace Bush's policies and claim to be an agent of change.

Obama does remain a question mark for many Americans who have not yet participated in the election, and McCain is already pouncing on that fact, saying last night that "Americans should be concerned" about his youth and inexperience. McCain, too, has challenges, including whether he can count on Republicans to be as enthusiastic for him as many Democrats and young voters are pumped up over Obama.

On that mark, McCain will probably fall short. But the general election will turn on a handful of key states with electoral votes awarded on a winner-take-all basis, such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

It's an important distinction. Had the Democratic primaries been based on a winner-take-all delegate system, as the GOP primaries were, Hillary Clinton would have clinched the Democratic nomination long ago.

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