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Detroit carmakers face tough fuel standards sooner rather than later as result of Supreme Court ruling that went against the Bush administration’s insistence that the government has no authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.
The ruling increases the odds that a new California emissions law will be upheld, requiring automakers to design cars that emit less carbon dioxide, sulfur oxide, nitrous oxide and methane. The requirements will be phased in over eight years, beginning with 2009 models, and will cut global warming emissions from new vehicles 23% by 2012, and 30% 2016, according to the California Air Resources Board. When the law was passed, Detroit sued to block implementation, and the judge in the case decided to wait for the Supreme Court ruling before going forward. If California wins the suit, which now seems likely, carmakers will have to adjust catalytic converters, air conditioning systems, engines, transmissions, tires and aerodynamics for new passenger cars and light duty vehicles.
Expect other states to follow suit: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington are all ready to act. Eventually the state regulations could become a de facto national standard as carmakers find it impractical to make different models for sale in different states.
That will also put more pressure on Congress to act. After several years of inaction, the Democratic takeover of Congress and a series of international reports warning of dire consequences from global warming have increased the odds that lawmakers will pass legislation, although President Bush remains a strong opponent and could still block bill with his veto.
Many businesses are supporting action in the hope that they can help shape a bill rather than have one imposed without their input. They also want to know what they need to do as soon as possible so they can take it into account as as they build new plants and factories. Multinational corporations have an added complication: Europe, Russia, Canada and Japan already have tougher standards than the U.S.
Among the big issues for Congress is who will pay for new controls, how far they should go and how quickly they should be put into effect. A fierce lobbying battle pitting different industries against each other -- coal companies vs. automakers, for example -- will complicate any legislative effort. That’s one reason why the first bills to emerge are likely to give a boost to alternative energy and conservation rather than put controls on existing fuels and technologies.
Much will depend on what Bush does. The Supreme Court's decision in the case, Massachusetts v. EPA, is an official rebuke to the administration for refusing to act. The Environmental Protection Agency has held that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are not pollutants and therefore cannot be regulated under the Clean Air Act. Further, the agency claimed that if it were to regulate greenhouse gases it might interfere with existing voluntary emissions programs, hinder foreign environmental policy with countries like India and China and trespass into territory regulated by the Department of Transportation.
The Court disagreed, saying there is a pressing need for intervention by the EPA, citing copious scientific data correlating greenhouse gas emissions with climate change that results in "'actual' and 'imminent'" environmental and economic effects, ranging from loss of habitat to less snow for ski resorts. And while there is no proven emission control technology for greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and other industrial sources, automobiles are the low-hanging fruit. Emissions from transportation, which contribute to more than 6% of worldwide and one-third of all U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, can be curbed by increasing fuel efficiency, which also will make the U.S. less dependent on foreign oil.
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