Democrats Poised for Big Congressional Gains

Republican leaders are hoping for -- but not expecting -- what they might call a least-worst scenario in House and Senate election results.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

May 22, 2008

Congressional Republicans are bracing for huge losses in November. Three recent Democratic wins in special House elections held in Republican strongholds in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi underscore the party's trouble. The GOP's image has been tarnished, and the hour is late for a major turnaround.

Democrats will gain at least a dozen House seats, possibly as many as 20 -- lifting their edge over Republicans to at least 50. If the Mississippi race on May 13 is any indication -- in which Democrat Travis Childers was elected in what has long been GOP territory -- voters are pressing for change and don't believe Republicans can produce it. Turnout favored Democrats, with record numbers of blacks going to the polls and many GOP voters deciding to stay home, a possible sign of what's in store in November. The current breakdown in the House is 236-199 favoring Democrats and 51-49 in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Democrats stand to get four to six seats in the Senate, giving them 55 to 57 seats overall. That's still short of the 60 needed to break a filibuster, but it means they can reach that number if they peel off just a few GOP moderates, such as Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Olympia Snowe of Maine and, if he loses the presidential election, John McCain of Arizona. They are among a small band of moderates who all have a history of breaking ranks on otherwise party-line votes, depending on the issue.

The election math benefits Democrats, who are defending 12 Senate seats compared with 23 being guarded by Republicans. Republicans also have four open seat races caused by pending retirements, and at least one of them, Virginia, is likely to flip to the Democrats, with former Gov. Mark Warner heavily favored. Only a half dozen or so of the races will be very competitive, and most all of them are for Senate seats currently held by Republicans. (If McCain wins, his seat is also likely to flip because his successor will be appointed by the Democratic governor.)

Here's our latest forecast on the hottest races:

• Louisiana. Leans slightly to Democrats. Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, who barely squeaked to election in 1996 and reelection in 2002, remains the only truly endangered Democrat, in large part over the changing demographics of the state after thousands were displaced from New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina. We give her slightly favorable odds to win against State Treasurer John N. Kennedy (R). Barack Obama's name on the ballot will help her some with the state's large black population, which mostly votes Democratic and may show up in force.

• Minnesota. Leans Republican. Incumbent Norm Coleman (R), who succeeded the late Paul Wellstone (D), is struggling against criticism for supporting the Iraq war and his conservative voting record. He's never been in entirely safe territory, but he'll likely beat back a challenge from political satirist Al Franken, whom we expect will be nominated by Democrats. Franken's chances may have been hurt by recent news that he owes $70,000 in back taxes and penalties, a mistake he blames on his accountant.

• New Hampshire. Leans Democratic. Freshman incumbent John Sununu (R) faces a tough challenge from former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who will benefit from a statewide trend toward Democrats in voter registration and the low popularity of President Bush and the war in Iraq.

• Maine. Leans Republican. Sen. Susan Collins (R), a moderate in the Senate who has a strong constituent service record, should win reelection, but not by much, turning back a challenge by lesser-known Rep. Tom Allen (R).

• New Mexico. Toss-up. Three congressmen are running for the open seat created by the retirement of six-term Sen. Pete Domenici. All have strong public approval ratings and plenty of campaign funds. But Rep. Tom Udall is a strong Democratic opponent.

• Colorado. Toss-up. An open seat race pits Rep. Mark Udall (D) against former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R). Colorado will be closely contested at the presidential level, pitting conservative strongholds in Denver and outlying areas against Democratic leaning areas like Boulder and Colorado Springs.

• Alaska. Leans Republican. Running for a seventh term at the age of 85, incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (R) has a closer election than previous races due to a criminal corporate political kickback probe that involves him, although he has not been indicted. Democrats have not settled on a candidate. Stevens' long record of service to the state may be enough to lift him out of his current trouble, assuming there is no indictment and no new evidence of wrongdoing.

• Oregon. Leans Republican. Oregon should prove beneficial to Democrats in the presidential race and elsewhere, but incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R), who has honed a moderate image necessary to survive in Oregon statewide races, still rates a slight edge. He'll face state House Speaker Jeff Merkley.

A few other Senate contests warrant mention, but we rank these incumbents relatively safe for now: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ). Republicans should also retain seats being left open by retiring Sens. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Larry Craig (R-ID).

Lastly, Senate Appropriations Chairman Robert Byrd (D-WV) is ailing and may step down, although he offers no such suggestion and is not up for reelection. Should he resign, though, an open seat race in West Virginia could potentially be close.

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