Crisis in Pakistan Puts Bush in Tough Spot

Is Pakistan's President Musharraf on his last legs? That's the fear in Washington, and with good reason.

By Andrew C. Schneider, Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

July 23, 2007

Pakistan's military ruler Pervez Musharraf is fighting for survival, trying to deal with a growing assault from Islamic rebels amid rising political unrest and U.S. insistence that he crack down on al Qaeda forces in the country. Fighting intensified over the weekend between the army and Islamic extremists, who operate with impunity in regions along the northwestern border with Afghanistan, using them as a base to plan terrorism worldwide and increasingly in Pakistan itself.

Musharraf has little choice but to go after the militants. He is acting not so much because of pressure from the U.S., although there's been plenty of that, but because of domestic outrage over the sharp rise in suicide bombings that followed Musharraf's attack July 12 on the Islamist rebels of the Red Mosque. His public support has also been undercut by the Supreme Court, which ruled July 20 that his suspension of the country's chief justice was illegal and that he must be reinstated. That is likely to complicate Musharraf's hopes of running for reelection later this year. Opposition parties have already announced they will challenge any attempt on his part to continue as both president and commanding general of Pakistan.

The odds of Musharraf surviving aren't particularly good. First, he is battling a tough foe -- an experienced, well-equipped and desperate force with nowhere else to go. Plus many in Musharraf's own army, and especially in his all-important intelligence service, are sympathetic to the jihadists. Trying to purge them while simultaneously waging war on the extremists and fighting for reelection would make everything much more difficult. The chances of a complete civil war seem to be growing daily.

The Bush administration is also in a jam. Some in Congress want to make U.S. aid -- close to $2 billion a year -- contingent on Pakistani actions against terrorist bases, but the U.S. can't push too hard for fear of undercutting Musharraf. If his regime collapses, which could happen even without more U.S. pressure, that could force the U.S. off the sidelines.

Some in the Bush administration would argue there's no other choice than to send U.S. troops into Pakistan to go after al Qaeda once and for all. U.S. officials have pointedly said that option is on the table, even though it means invading a sovereign country, and an ally to boot.

But it would be immensely difficult. Bombing isn't a real option without good intelligence, and even a willing Pakistan couldn't supply that. If the U.S. knew where to bomb, the administration would have done so a long time ago. That would mean going in with ground troops, but a great many would be required -- far more than available -- and as soon as they crossed the border, they would be hit from all sides by the Taliban, al Qaeda, Pakistani jihadists, Pakistani civilians and even the military.

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